CN112632799B - Method and device for evaluating design wind speed of power transmission line - Google Patents
Method and device for evaluating design wind speed of power transmission line Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The application provides a method and a device for evaluating the design wind speed of a power transmission line, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring short-term meteorological observation data; screening a plurality of strong wind events from long-term meteorological observation data according to the recurrent period wind speed of the reference meteorological station; assimilating short-term observation data into initial field data, and establishing a weather forecast model of a research area based on the collected data and the assimilated initial field data; simulating the screened high wind events to obtain wind speed simulation results of a plurality of high wind events; calculating the ratio of the maximum wind speed of each grid point of the research area to the preset height of the grid point corresponding to the temporary weather station in each strong wind event, calculating the reproduction period wind speed of each grid point based on the ratio and the reproduction period wind speed of the temporary weather station, and carrying out section division on the power transmission line to be built and converting to obtain the design wind speed value of each section preset height of the power transmission line. The method can effectively improve the accuracy of the design wind speed value of the transmission line in the areas with sparse data.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the field of power transmission line engineering design, in particular to a power transmission line design wind speed value and device.
Background
For transmission line engineering, wind load is one of the loads that needs to be considered with great importance. The higher the designed wind speed is, the stronger the engineering wind resistance is, and the higher the engineering cost is. Therefore, reasonable determination of the design wind speed is of great significance to the design of the power transmission line.
For areas with dense weather stations and rich data, the weather stations have better representativeness of the weather of the places where the engineering is located. The actual measured wind speed data of a plurality of weather stations are collected, the wind speeds of different reproduction periods of the weather stations are calculated by using a probability statistical method, and then the accurate design wind speed of the power transmission line can be obtained by combining with terrain correction. However, for remote areas with rare weather stations and poor representativeness of the weather stations, the probability statistics method is adopted to determine the design wind speed of the power transmission line, which is often poor in effect. Along with the continuous promotion of large western development of China, remote power transmission engineering and energy internet construction, the power transmission line engineering design faces the problem of wind speed value design in more and more non-data areas.
The meteorological numerical simulation method is a method for mechanically simulating the atmospheric motion condition according to the physical basic law of climate and change thereof. With the development of computers and numerical computing methods, numerical simulation has become a major approach to quantitatively studying climate and its changes. In a large-scale project of individual importance, the transmission line project has tried to introduce a meteorological numerical simulation method, specifically a weather forecast mode (The Weather Research and Forecasting Model, abbreviated as WRF), so as to analyze the wind field distribution of the project area mechanically and provide a certain basis for designing the wind speed value.
However, when the WRF mode is adopted for meteorological numerical simulation, the problem that the extreme value simulation is smaller than the actual value exists, and when the meteorological numerical result is adopted for designing the wind speed value, the designed wind speed is easily too small, and the wind resistance of the power transmission line is insufficient.
Therefore, the method and the device for effectively taking the value of the design wind speed of the power transmission line are significant.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the application provides a method and a device for evaluating the design wind speed of a power transmission line, which can effectively improve the accuracy of evaluating the design wind speed of the power transmission line in rare areas of a meteorological station.
Specifically, the method comprises the following technical scheme:
the embodiment of the application provides a method for evaluating the design wind speed of a power transmission line, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring short-term meteorological observation data, wherein the short-term meteorological observation data are acquired by more than one year of meteorological values at least one temporary meteorological station established along the line of a power transmission line to be built;
calculating the reappearance period wind speed of a reference weather station, wherein the reference weather station is selected from long-term weather stations in a research area, and the transmission line to be built is positioned in the research area;
Selecting a plurality of strong wind events from long-term meteorological observation data of the reference weather station according to the recurrent period wind speed of the reference weather station;
assimilating the short-term meteorological observation data into initial field data by using a data assimilation system of a weather forecast mode, and establishing a weather forecast model of the research area based on the topographic data, the surface vegetation type data, the weather re-analysis data, the long-term meteorological observation data of a long-term meteorological station and the assimilated initial field data of the research area;
simulating the research area by adopting the weather forecast model to obtain a wind speed simulation result of each high wind event in the research area;
calculating the ratio of the maximum wind speed of each grid point of the research area at the preset height in each high wind event to the maximum wind speed of the grid point corresponding to the temporary weather station at the preset height in each high wind event based on the wind speed simulation result;
calculating the reproduction period wind speed of each grid point of the research area at a preset height based on the ratio and the reproduction period wind speed of the temporary weather station, wherein the reproduction period wind speed of the temporary weather station is calculated according to the reproduction period wind speed of the reference weather station;
Dividing the line of the transmission line to be built into sections according to the recurring period wind speed of each grid point of the research area at a preset height to obtain the recurring period wind speed of each section;
converting the reproduction period wind speed of each section into a standard wind speed value under standard terrain conditions by utilizing the gradient change coefficient of the wind speed of each section along the height, and taking the standard wind speed value as a design wind speed value of the preset height of each section of the transmission line to be built.
Optionally, before the acquiring short-term meteorological observation data, the method further includes:
performing weather forecast simulation on the research area based on the terrain data, the surface vegetation type data, the weather re-analysis data and the long-term weather observation data of the long-term weather station of the research area to obtain a wind speed distribution map of the research area;
and selecting one line from the candidate transmission lines as the transmission line to be built based on the wind speed distribution diagram of the research area.
Optionally, before the acquiring short-term meteorological observation data, the method further includes:
and selecting a setting position of the temporary weather station based on a wind speed distribution diagram of the research area, wherein the setting position accords with at least one condition of an upwind direction of incoming wind, a climbing section of wind, a maximum wind speed position and a strong wind boundary along the to-be-built power transmission line.
Optionally, the simulating the research area by using the weather forecast model to obtain a wind speed simulation result of each high wind event in the research area includes:
and simulating the research area by adopting the weather forecast model to obtain an initial simulation wind field, and correcting the initial simulation wind field by adopting a gradual correction method to obtain wind speed simulation results of a plurality of strong wind processes in the research area.
Optionally, the reference weather station is obtained by selecting the following steps:
selecting a plurality of candidate long-term weather stations from the long-term weather stations within the investigation region;
and selecting at least one reference weather station from the candidate long-term weather stations based on the correlation coefficient of the contemporaneous day maximum wind speed of the temporary weather station and the candidate long-term weather stations and the rising and falling consistency of the wind speed in the high wind event.
The embodiment of the application also provides a device for evaluating the design wind speed of the power transmission line, which comprises:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring short-term meteorological observation data, wherein the short-term meteorological observation data are acquired by more than one year of meteorological values at least one temporary meteorological station established along the line of a power transmission line to be established;
The calculation module is used for calculating the reappearance period wind speed of the reference weather station, wherein the reference weather station is selected from long-term weather stations in a research area, and the transmission line to be built is positioned in the research area;
the selecting module is used for selecting a plurality of strong wind events from long-term meteorological observation data of the reference weather station according to the recurring period wind speed of the reference weather station;
the model building module is used for assimilating the short-term meteorological observation data into initial field data by using a data assimilation system of a weather forecast mode, and building a weather forecast model of the research area based on the topographic data, the surface vegetation type data, the weather re-analysis data, the long-term meteorological observation data of a long-term meteorological station and the assimilated initial field data of the research area;
the simulation module is used for simulating the research area by adopting the weather forecast model to obtain a wind speed simulation result of each high wind event in the research area;
the calculation module is further used for calculating the ratio of the maximum wind speed of each grid point of the research area at the preset height in each high wind event to the maximum wind speed of the grid point corresponding to the temporary weather station at the preset height in each high wind event based on the wind speed simulation result; calculating the reproduction period wind speed of each grid point of the research area at a preset height based on the ratio and the reproduction period wind speed of the temporary weather station, wherein the reproduction period wind speed of the temporary weather station is calculated according to the reproduction period wind speed of the reference weather station;
The value taking module is used for dividing the line of the transmission line to be built into sections according to the reproduction period wind speed of each grid point of the research area at a preset height to obtain the reproduction period wind speed of each section; converting the reproduction period wind speed of each section into a standard wind speed value under standard terrain conditions by utilizing the gradient change coefficient of the wind speed of each section along the height, and taking the standard wind speed value as a design wind speed value of the preset height of each section of the transmission line to be built.
Optionally, the simulation module is further configured to perform weather forecast simulation on the research area based on the topography data, the surface vegetation type data, the weather re-analysis data and the long-term weather observation data of the long-term weather station of the research area, so as to obtain a wind speed distribution diagram of the research area;
the selecting module is further configured to select a line from the candidate transmission lines as the transmission line to be built based on the wind speed distribution diagram of the research area.
Optionally, the selecting module is further configured to select a setting position of the temporary weather station based on a wind speed distribution diagram of the research area, where the setting position meets at least one condition of an upwind direction, a climbing section of wind, a maximum wind speed position and a strong wind boundary position of an incoming wind along the to-be-built power transmission line.
Optionally, the simulation module is configured to simulate the research area by using the weather forecast model to obtain an initial simulated wind field, and correct the initial simulated wind field by using a gradual correction method to obtain wind speed simulation results of a plurality of strong wind processes in the research area.
Optionally, the selecting module is further configured to:
selecting a plurality of candidate long-term weather stations from the long-term weather stations within the investigation region;
and selecting at least one reference weather station from the candidate long-term weather stations based on the correlation coefficient of the contemporaneous day maximum wind speed of the temporary weather station and the candidate long-term weather stations and the rising and falling consistency of the wind speed in the high wind event.
The beneficial effects of the technical scheme provided by the embodiment of the application at least comprise:
according to the method and the device for evaluating the design wind speed of the power transmission line, short-term weather observation data acquired by the temporary weather stations built along the power transmission line are acquired, the short-term weather observation data are assimilated into initial field data by the data assimilation system of a weather forecast mode, a weather forecast model is built according to the topography data, the surface vegetation type data, the weather re-analysis data and the long-term weather observation data and the initial field data of the long-term weather stations of a research area, and the model can simulate the research area with sparse data more accurately. Screening out at least one high wind event from long-term meteorological observation data according to the recurring period wind speed of the reference meteorological station, simulating each screened high wind event by adopting the weather forecast model, calculating the recurring period wind speed of each grid point based on wind speed simulation results and the recurring period wind speed of the temporary meteorological station, dividing the transmission line according to the recurring period wind speed, converting the recurring period wind speed along the height gradient change coefficient according to the wind speed of each grid point to obtain the designed wind speed value of each section of the transmission line, correcting the simulated wind speed value of each grid point according to the measured data of the long-term meteorological station and the temporary meteorological station to obtain the recurring period wind speed value of each grid point, further obtaining the designed wind speed value of each section of the transmission line to be built, improving the accuracy of the designed wind speed value of the transmission line in the sparse areas of the data, and ensuring the safety of the transmission line.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application, the drawings that are needed in the description of the embodiments will be briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present application, and that other drawings may be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for evaluating a design wind speed of a power transmission line according to an embodiment of the present application.
Fig. 2 is a flowchart of another method for evaluating a design wind speed of a power transmission line according to an embodiment of the present application.
Fig. 3 is a flowchart of another method for evaluating a design wind speed of a power transmission line according to an embodiment of the present application.
Fig. 4 is a flowchart of another method for evaluating a design wind speed of a power transmission line according to an embodiment of the present application.
Fig. 5 is a schematic diagram of a power transmission line design wind speed value device provided in an embodiment of the present application.
Specific embodiments thereof have been shown by way of example in the drawings and will herein be described in more detail. These drawings and the written description are not intended to limit the scope of the inventive concepts in any way, but to illustrate the concepts of the present application to those skilled in the art by reference to specific embodiments.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments of the present application will be made clearly and fully with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which it is evident that the embodiments described are some, but not all, of the embodiments of the present application. All other embodiments, which can be made by one of ordinary skill in the art without undue burden from the present disclosure, are within the scope of the present disclosure.
Unless defined otherwise, all technical terms used in the examples of the present application have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art. Before describing the application embodiments in further detail, some terms that understand the embodiments of the application will be described.
In order to make the technical solution and advantages of the present application more apparent, the embodiments of the present application will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Referring to fig. 1, an embodiment of the present application provides a method for evaluating a design wind speed of a power transmission line, where the method includes:
step 101, acquiring short-term meteorological observation data, wherein the short-term meteorological observation data are acquired by more than one year of meteorological values at least one temporary meteorological station established along the line of a power transmission line to be built, and three years of advice are provided for a terrain-complex region.
And 102, calculating the reappearance period wind speed of a reference weather station, wherein the reference weather station is selected from long-term weather stations in a research area, and a transmission line to be built is in the research area.
The reproduction period refers to an interval between occurrence moments when the wind speed value is continuously larger than the designed wind speed value twice in a statistical sense. In the embodiment of the application, probability distribution fitting is carried out on the observed data of the reference weather station, and a fitting curve of the wind speed value and the occurrence frequency is obtained. For a certain reproduction period T 0 Its corresponding frequency of occurrence is p=1/T 0 The wind speed value corresponding to the occurrence frequency in the fitting curve is called the reproduction period T 0 And (5) corresponding reproduction period wind speed.
For transmission line engineering, it is generally necessary to consider the maximum wind speed that may occur in a 50 year or 100-day windy event of the engineering. Therefore, in the embodiment of the application, the wind speed of the reproduction period corresponding to 50 years or 100 years of the reproduction period of the reference weather station can be calculated.
Specifically, any one of extremum type I distribution, weibull distribution, pearson type iii distribution and lognormal distribution can be used to calculate the recurring wind speed of the reference weather station.
And 103, selecting at least one high wind event from long-term meteorological observation data of the reference weather station according to the recurrent period wind speed of the reference weather station. A start-stop time period for each high wind event is acquired.
Specifically, at least one high wind event may be randomly screened from long term meteorological observations. Alternatively, the level of the next most severe wind event may be represented by a level corresponding to the maximum wind speed value of the severe wind event occurring in the long-term meteorological observation data. And acquiring the grades of the multiple times of strong wind events, and carrying out frequency statistics. The screening of the at least one high wind event from the long-term meteorological observation data may be to screen out high wind events with a level greater than or equal to a specific level or to screen out high wind events with a frequency greater than a specific frequency. For example, the screened out windy events may be 8 times.
And according to the recurring period wind speed, at least one moment of wind speed in each strong wind event selected from the long-term observation data of the reference weather station reaches or approximates to the recurring period wind speed of the reference weather station. The wind speed of the reproduction period of the reference weather station is more typical, and the wind event screened from the long-term weather observation data can reflect the wind situation possibly encountered in the future along the power transmission line, so that the designed wind speed of the power transmission line can be more accurate.
And 104, assimilating short-term meteorological observation data into initial field data by using a WRF mode data assimilation (The Weather Research Forecast Model Data Assimilation, abbreviated as WRFDA) system, and establishing a WRF model of the research area based on the topographic data of the research area, the surface vegetation type data, the meteorological re-analysis data, the long-term meteorological observation data of the long-term meteorological station and the assimilated initial field data.
The WRF mode is an open source weather forecast mode and is written by Fortran90 language, and the WRF mode has the characteristics of portability, easy maintenance, expandability and the like. The model can be used for individual simulation of real weather and can also be used for researching basic physical processes in weather. The person skilled in the art can download and modify and set the relevant parameters by himself, and establish a WRF model of the investigation region. The WRFDA system in the WRF mode can assimilate various materials through a three-dimensional assimilation method to generate an updated initial field. According to the embodiment of the application, the WRFDA system is utilized to assimilate short-term meteorological observation data into an initial field, so that the simulation precision of an established WRF model on a research area can be improved.
Prior to modeling, it is necessary to obtain, in advance, terrain data of the investigation region, surface vegetation type data, weather re-analysis data, and long-term weather observation data of the long-term weather station. Specifically, the research area is an area where the power transmission line is to be erected, and is an area covering the power transmission line to be erected in order to facilitate the use of a weather forecast (Weather Research Forecast, abbreviated as WRF) model. The weather re-analysis data of the study area can be obtained from various sources, for example, from the national environmental forecast center (National Centers for Environmental Prediction, abbreviated NCEP).
And 105, simulating the research area by adopting a WRF model to obtain a wind speed simulation result of each high wind event in the research area. Wherein the simulated time period is a start-stop time period of each high wind event.
And 106, calculating the ratio of the maximum wind speed of the preset height of each grid point in each high wind event to the maximum wind speed of the preset height of the grid point corresponding to the temporary weather station in each high wind event based on the wind speed simulation result. Wherein, the preset height may be 10m.
For example, if the number of acquired high wind events is 8, for a specific grid, the number of acquired high wind events corresponds to 8, and if n wind speed values exist in each high wind event, the maximum value of the 8*n wind speed values is acquired as the maximum wind speed of the grid point. And calculating the ratio of the maximum wind speed of the preset height of each grid point corresponding to the temporary weather station in each high wind event, wherein a plurality of ratios are corresponding to each grid point, and the number of the ratios is equal to the number of the high wind events.
And 107, calculating the recurring period wind speed of each grid point of the research area at a preset height based on the ratio and the recurring period wind speed of the temporary weather station, wherein the recurring period wind speed of the temporary weather station is calculated according to the recurring period wind speed of the reference weather station.
In the implementation, for each grid point, calculating the average value of a plurality of corresponding ratios, and multiplying the average value by the recurring period wind speed of the temporary weather station to obtain the recurring period wind speed of the grid point at the preset height. The wind speed of the reproduction period of the temporary weather station at the preset height is calculated according to the wind speed of the reproduction period of the reference weather station, and the specific calculation process will be described in detail later.
And step 108, dividing the transmission line to be built along the line according to the recurring period wind speed of each grid point in the research area at a preset height to obtain the recurring period wind speed of each section.
And 109, converting the reproduction period wind speed of each section into a standard wind speed value under standard terrain conditions by utilizing the gradient change coefficient of the wind speed of each section along the height, and taking the standard wind speed value as a design wind speed value of the preset height of each section of the power transmission line to be built.
Specifically, the change coefficient of the wind speed of each grid point along the height gradient is calculated according to the wind speed values of each grid point at different heights. The gradient change coefficient of the wind speed of each section along the height can be obtained by grading the gradient change coefficient along the height according to the wind speed of each grid point along the to-be-built power transmission line. Or when the section division is carried out along the line of the power transmission line to be built, the wind speed gradient change coefficient along the height of each section is selected according to the wind speed gradient change coefficients along the height of a plurality of grid points in each section and/or the actual terrain conditions of each section.
In implementation, for remote areas, weather data are not comprehensive enough or local weather data cannot be obtained, and wind speed results obtained by directly adopting a WRF mode are often small in extreme value, so that the design wind speed of a transmission line to be built cannot be set directly according to the simulation result of the WRF mode.
In the embodiment of the application, short-term meteorological observation data obtained by acquiring meteorological values at least one short-term meteorological station established along the line of a power transmission line to be built is obtained, and the short-term meteorological observation data is assimilated into initial field data by using a three-dimensional assimilation technology of a WRFDA system in a WRF mode. Taking the area where the transmission line to be built is as a research area, acquiring topographic data, earth surface value quilt type data, weather re-analysis data, long-term weather observation data of a long-term weather station and initial field data after assimilation of the research area, and building a WRF model of the research area. Because the initial field data of the model assimilates the short-term meteorological observation data of the short-term meteorological station, the meteorological change of a research area can be simulated more accurately. Based on a WRF model of the established research area, simulating at least one strong wind event screened from long-term meteorological observation data, obtaining maximum wind speed values at preset heights of all grid points in the strong wind event, obtaining recurring period wind speeds of all grid points based on the maximum wind speed values of all grid points and recurring period wind speeds of temporary meteorological stations, dividing wind speed sections of a transmission line to be established according to the recurring period wind speeds of all grid points, and converting the recurring period wind speeds of all sections to obtain design wind speed values of all sections.
In summary, the WRF model established in the method for evaluating the design wind speed of the power transmission line provided by the embodiment of the application can more accurately reflect the meteorological variation of the research area where the power transmission line to be built is located, and by simulating at least one strong wind event screened from long-term meteorological observation data, the more accurate maximum wind speed horizontal variation and vertical variation of the grid point of the power transmission line to be built along the route can be obtained, and the simulation result is corrected according to the wind speeds of the reference weather station and the temporary weather station in the reproduction period, so that the design wind speed value of each section of the power transmission line to be built can be obtained more accurately, and the safety of the power transmission line engineering is improved.
Optionally, referring to fig. 2, step 108 may include:
step 1081, obtaining the recurring period wind speed of the grid point of the route of the power transmission line to be built, obtaining the maximum value and the minimum value thereof, dividing the whole wind speed interval according to the maximum value and the minimum value to obtain a plurality of grade intervals, and setting a representative wind speed value for each grade interval. The representative wind speed value may be selected according to the actual situation, such as the maximum value, the minimum value, the median value, etc. of the level intervals.
Step 1082, comparing which level interval the recurring period wind speed of each grid point of the route of the transmission line to be built falls into, and using the representative wind speed value of the level as the representative recurring period wind speed value of the grid point.
Step 1083, dividing adjacent grid points with the same values representing the recurring wind speeds into the same section, thereby dividing the transmission line to be built into sections and obtaining the recurring wind speeds of each section. For example, the number of the classified level intervals may be 8, and the power transmission line to be built is divided into 18 wind speed sections along the line. Wherein the recurring period wind speed is a non-standard ground wind speed.
It should be noted that the grading may be performed in other manners, such as setting a plurality of wind speed nodes according to engineering experience, grading according to the plurality of wind speed nodes, and the like. The present embodiment gives only one exemplary method of classifying the class section, and does not constitute a limitation of the present application.
Alternatively, step 109 may be to scale the recurring wind speed of each segment according to a power exponent function to a standard wind speed value under standard topography conditions with a wind shear index of 0.15 according to the wind speed gradient change coefficient of each segment.
For different terrain areas, because the roughness of the ground is different, the speed of change of the wind speed along the height direction is also different, and larger errors exist when the wind speed values directly observed or directly simulated in the different terrain areas are directly compared. According to the embodiment of the application, the recurring period wind speed of each section is converted into the wind speed under the condition of the standard topography with the wind shear index of 0.15 according to the wind speed gradient change coefficient of each section, so that the converted standard wind speed value can be used for comparison among different topography. Wherein the standard terrain condition is an open flat ground condition.
In practical applications, step 109 may further include correcting the multiple wind speed sections obtained by division according to engineering experience and the existing line design wind speed and operation conditions, and according to the division principle that the same wind section should belong to the same weather region, the weather conditions forming the strong wind are substantially consistent, the topography conditions are similar, the altitude is similar, and the design wind speed is substantially equal in the "electric power engineering meteorological survey technical regulations" (DL/T5158-2012), for example, combining the sections with similar standard wind speed values and adjacent positions into the same section.
Optionally, referring to fig. 3, before the short-term meteorological observation data is acquired in step 101, the method further includes:
and step 1000, carrying out WRF simulation on the research area based on the topography data, the surface vegetation type data, the weather re-analysis data and the long-term weather observation data of the long-term weather station of the research area to obtain a wind speed distribution diagram of the research area.
Step 1001, selecting a line from the candidate transmission lines as a transmission line to be built based on the wind speed distribution diagram of the research area.
In practice, there are typically multiple candidate transmission lines for a given transmission line project. In order to obtain a line with low cost and easy realization from candidate transmission lines, in the embodiment of the application, WRF simulation is performed on a research area based on the topographic data of the research area, the surface vegetation type data, the weather re-analysis data and the long-term weather observation data of a long-term weather station to obtain a wind speed distribution diagram of the research area. On the basis of the wind speed distribution diagram of the research area, comparing wind field areas of paths of a plurality of candidate power transmission lines, and selecting a low-cost and easy-to-realize line from the candidate power transmission lines as the power transmission line by combining the terrains of the paths of the candidate power transmission lines.
In some embodiments, the route may be optimized based on the original planned route and the WRF simulation result, for example, a section of the original planned route passing through the strong wind core area and being properly adjustable is adjusted, so that the route avoids the strong wind core area, on one hand, the design wind speed may be reduced, the engineering cost may be saved, and on the other hand, the safety of the engineering may be ensured.
Optionally, with continued reference to fig. 3, before the short-term meteorological observation data is acquired in step 101, after obtaining a wind speed profile of the investigation region in step 1000, the method further includes:
step 1002, selecting a setting position of the temporary weather station based on a wind speed distribution map of the study area. The setting position accords with at least one condition of an upper wind inlet of incoming wind, a climbing section of wind, a maximum wind speed position and a strong wind boundary position along the line of the power transmission line to be built.
In practice, after the wind speed distribution map of the investigation region is acquired, the setting position of the temporary weather station is selected according to the wind speed distribution of the investigation region. In the embodiment of the application, the setting position of the temporary weather station accords with at least one condition of the upwind direction of incoming wind, the climbing section of wind, the maximum wind speed position and the big wind boundary position along the line of the power transmission line to be built. The conditions can ensure that the temporary weather station performs weather monitoring on a plurality of key positions of the power transmission line to be built, so that the simulation result of the area where the power transmission line to be built is located by the WRF model which is built later is more accurate, and the more accurate power transmission line design wind speed is obtained.
In one embodiment, four temporary weather stations may be provided, so that the four temporary weather stations respectively conform to an upwind direction of incoming wind, a climbing section of wind, a maximum wind speed position and a strong wind boundary along a line of a power transmission line to be built, so as to perform comprehensive weather observation on a plurality of key positions along the line of the power transmission line to be built.
It should be noted that, for different power transmission line projects, the setting positions of the temporary weather stations may be different, and those skilled in the art may select the setting positions of the temporary weather stations according to actual situations. The setting positions of the temporary weather stations provided by the embodiments of the present application are not limited to the present application.
In the embodiment of the application, the topography data, the surface vegetation type data, the weather re-analysis data and the long-term weather observation data of the long-term weather station of the research area are utilized to carry out WRF simulation on the research area, a line with lower cost is selected from the candidate transmission lines to serve as a transmission line to be built according to the simulation result, the setting position of the temporary weather station is selected along the line of the transmission line to be built according to the WRF simulation result, the cost of the transmission line engineering can be reduced, the accuracy of the design wind speed value of the transmission line to be built is improved, and the safety of the transmission line engineering is guaranteed.
Optionally, the simulation of the research area by using the WRF model, to obtain a wind speed simulation result of each high wind event in the research area, includes:
and simulating the research area by adopting a WRF model to obtain an initial simulation wind field, and correcting the initial simulation wind field by adopting a gradual correction method to obtain wind speed simulation results of a plurality of strong wind processes in the research area.
The basic process of the gradual correction method is as follows: and correcting the initial simulated wind field obtained by the WRF model by utilizing the measured data step by step until the corrected field approximates to the observed data. In the embodiment of the application, after the WRF model is adopted to simulate a research area to obtain an initial simulated wind field, a gradual correction method can be adopted to correct the initial simulated wind field by utilizing long-term weather observation data of a long-term weather station and short-term weather observation data of a temporary weather station, so that a wind speed simulation result is more fit with reality, a more accurate design wind speed of a power transmission line is obtained, and the safety of the power transmission line is further ensured.
In the embodiment of the application, the WRF model is adopted to perform fine numerical simulation with the resolution of 1km multiplied by 1km one by one on at least one selected strong wind event, the wind speed and the wind direction of the whole strong wind event are output one by one in 10 minutes, and deviation correction is performed by utilizing weather observation data actually measured by the temporary weather station and the long-term weather station, so that a more accurate simulation result is obtained.
Specifically, the calibration of the initial numerical simulation result of wind speed according to the wind speed observation data of the long-term weather station and the measured wind speed data of at least one temporary weather station in the WRF mode innermost heavy simulation area comprises the following steps:
firstly, performing simulation error analysis on the simulated wind speed of an actual measurement point, wherein the actual measurement point is the position of a long-term weather station and a temporary weather station in a re-simulation area in a WRF mode, and the simulation error analysis is to calculate the simulation error of the actual measurement point according to the actual observation data and the initial numerical simulation result of the actual measurement point.
And secondly, obtaining the simulation errors on all grid points by adopting a distance weighting method. For example, for any grid, the simulation error is obtained by weighting the linear combination of the simulation errors of the actual measurement points in the surrounding influence area, wherein the farther the grid is from a certain actual measurement point, the smaller the weight corresponding to the simulation error of the actual measurement point.
And finally, eliminating the simulation errors on all grid points by using the simulation errors on all grid points to obtain a more accurate wind speed numerical simulation result.
Analyzing the corrected simulation result, screening out the maximum wind speed of each grid point process, drawing a maximum wind speed diagram of the line grid point process, and analyzing the partition characteristics of the secondary strong wind process on the transmission line to be built.
Optionally, referring to fig. 4, the reference weather station is selected by:
step 1021, selecting a plurality of candidate long-term weather stations from the long-term weather stations within the area of investigation.
The long-term weather station is a weather station which is original in the research area and has undergone long-term weather observation. In some embodiments, a long-term weather station that simultaneously satisfies the following conditions is selected as a candidate long-term weather station:
(1) The wind measuring environment is kept unchanged for a long time;
(2) The terrain and climate characteristics of the geographic position of the weather station are regional representativeness;
(3) The historical meteorological observation period reaches a preset period, which may be, for example, 30 years.
Step 1022, selecting at least one reference weather station from the candidate long-term weather stations based on the correlation coefficient of the current daily maximum wind speed of the temporary weather station and the candidate long-term weather stations and the rising and falling consistency of the wind speed in the high wind event.
In this embodiment, the factors mainly considered when selecting the reference weather station are correlation between the weather observation data of the reference weather station and the temporary weather station and the rising and falling consistency of the wind speed in the event of a strong wind. Firstly, calculating the correlation coefficient of the same-period daily maximum wind speed of a candidate long-term weather station and a temporary weather station, comparing fluctuation and change of the wind speed of the candidate long-term weather station and the temporary weather station in a typical high wind event, and selecting a weather station with higher correlation coefficient of the same-period daily maximum wind speed and more consistent fluctuation and change of the wind speed in the high wind event as a reference weather station. When the number of temporary weather stations is more than one, a reference weather station is selected for each temporary weather station.
In some embodiments, the reference weather station can be selected by combining the wind measuring environment similarity of the candidate long-term weather station and the temporary weather station, the wind measuring topography similarity, the distance from the power transmission line to be built and other factors.
Optionally, the recurring period wind speed of the temporary weather station is obtained by transplanting according to the recurring period wind speed of the reference weather station.
Two ways of transplanting the recurring wind speed to the temporary weather station are listed here, and those skilled in the art will recognize other ways based on the actual situation.
Firstly, a fitting equation of a daily maximum wind speed sequence of a certain high wind event in short-term meteorological observation data of a temporary meteorological station and a daily maximum wind speed sequence of the same high wind event of a reference meteorological station is obtained through calculating a correlation relation of the daily maximum wind speed sequence of the same high wind event of the temporary meteorological station. And calculating the recurring period wind speed of the reference weather station, and calculating the recurring period wind speed of the temporary weather station by using the recurring period wind speed of the reference weather station and the fitting equation.
Second, obtaining a wind speed value of a high wind event with a wind speed reaching a first preset level in short-term meteorological observation data of a temporary meteorological station as a first sample, obtaining a wind speed value of a high wind event with a wind speed reaching a second preset level in long-term meteorological observation data of a reference meteorological station as a second sample, wherein the first sample and the second sample are meteorological observation data of the same high wind event, and calculating a time-to-time wind speed ratio of the first sample and the second sample. And carrying out cumulative probability arrangement on the time-by-time wind speed ratio of the first sample and the second sample, and obtaining the wind speed ratio of which the cumulative probability reaches a preset probability value. And calculating the reproduction period wind speed of the reference weather station, and obtaining the reproduction period wind speed of the temporary weather station by using the ratio of the reproduction period wind speed of the reference weather station to the wind speed of the accumulated probability reaching a preset probability value.
Wherein, a high wind event with a wind speed level greater than n levels means that at least one moment exists in the next high wind event, the wind speed is greater than n levels. The first preset level is a level selected according to an overall wind speed level distribution of short-term weather station observations of the temporary weather station, for example, the first preset level may be a wind speed level of a maximum wind speed value or a lower level of a wind speed level of a maximum wind speed value in a majority of high wind events in the short-term weather observations. Similarly, the second preset level is the wind speed level of the maximum wind speed value or the lower level of the wind speed level of the maximum wind speed value in the multiple times of high wind events in the meteorological observation data of the reference weather station. The wind speed level which best reflects the actual conditions of the high wind period of the meteorological station can be selected by the person skilled in the art according to the actual conditions. The preset probability value can be 90%, and the reproduction period wind speed of the temporary weather station obtained by calculating the wind speed ratio of the time-by-time wind speed ratio of the first sample and the second sample to reach the preset probability value is more accurate and is more close to the extreme climate possibly encountered by the power transmission line to be built in operation.
In summary, the method for evaluating the design wind speed of the power transmission line provided by the embodiment of the application can establish a more accurate WRF model of a research area, and select at least one typical high wind event according to the recurring period wind speed of a reference weather station. And simulating the at least one strong wind event by adopting the WRF model, and correcting the model result by adopting a gradual correction method after obtaining an initial simulation result to obtain a more accurate wind speed simulation result. Based on the wind speed simulation result, more accurate design wind speed of the power transmission line can be obtained, so that the subsequent power transmission line is more scientifically designed, and the safety and stability of the power transmission line are ensured. Meanwhile, the power transmission line to be built and the setting position of the temporary weather station can be selected from candidate power transmission lines according to the WRF simulation result of the research area, so that the engineering cost can be further reduced, the accuracy of the design wind speed value of the power transmission line is improved, and the safety and the economical efficiency of the power transmission line engineering are ensured.
Based on the same thought, the embodiment of the application also provides a device for evaluating the design wind speed of the power transmission line. Referring to fig. 5, the apparatus includes:
the data acquisition module 210 is configured to acquire short-term weather observation data, where the short-term weather observation data is acquired by more than one year of weather values at least one temporary weather station established along a line of the power transmission line to be built.
The calculating module 220 is configured to calculate a recurring period wind speed of a reference weather station, where the reference weather station is selected from long-term weather stations in the research area, and the transmission line to be built is in the research area.
The selection module 230 is configured to select at least one strong wind event from long-term meteorological observation data of the reference weather station according to a recurring wind speed of the reference weather station. A start-stop time period for each high wind event is acquired.
The model building module 240 is configured to assimilate short-term weather observation data into initial field data by using a WRFDA system in a WRF mode, and build a WRF model of the research area based on the topography data of the research area, the surface vegetation type data, the weather re-analysis data, the long-term weather observation data of the long-term weather station, and the assimilated initial field data.
The simulation module 250 is configured to simulate the research area by using a WRF model, so as to obtain a wind speed simulation result of each high wind event in the research area. Wherein the simulated time period is a start-stop time period of each high wind event.
The calculation module 220 is further configured to calculate, based on a wind speed simulation result, a ratio of a maximum wind speed of a preset height of each grid point in the research area to a maximum wind speed of a preset height of a grid point corresponding to the temporary weather station in each high wind event; and calculating the reappearance period wind speed of each grid point of the research area at a preset height based on the ratio and the reappearance period wind speed of the temporary weather station, wherein the reappearance period wind speed of the temporary weather station is calculated according to the reappearance period wind speed of the reference weather station.
The value module 260 is configured to divide the line of the power transmission line to be built into sections according to the recurring wind speed of each grid point in the research area at a preset height, so as to obtain the recurring wind speed of each section; converting the reproduction period wind speed of each section into a standard wind speed value under standard terrain conditions by utilizing the gradient change coefficient of the wind speed of each section along the height, and taking the standard wind speed value as a design wind speed value of the preset height of each section of the power transmission line to be built. Wherein, the preset height may be 10m.
Optionally, the simulation module 250 is further configured to perform WRF simulation on the investigation region based on the topography data, the surface vegetation type data, the weather re-analysis data, and the long-term weather observation data of the long-term weather station, so as to obtain a wind speed distribution map of the investigation region.
The selecting module 230 is further configured to select a line from the candidate transmission lines as the transmission line to be built based on the wind speed profile of the study area.
Optionally, the selecting module 230 is further configured to select a setting position of the temporary weather station based on a wind speed distribution diagram of the research area, where the setting position meets at least one condition of an upper wind gap of an incoming wind, a climbing section of wind, a maximum wind speed position and a strong wind boundary along the to-be-built power transmission line.
Optionally, the simulation module 250 is configured to simulate the research area by using a WRF model to obtain an initial simulated wind field, and correct the initial simulated wind field by using a gradual correction method to obtain wind speed simulation results of a plurality of strong wind processes in the research area.
Optionally, the selecting module 230 is further configured to:
selecting a plurality of candidate long-term weather stations from the long-term weather stations within the investigation region;
and selecting at least one reference weather station from the candidate long-term weather stations based on the correlation coefficient of the maximum daily wind speed of the temporary weather stations and the candidate long-term weather stations and the rising and falling consistency of the wind speed in the high wind event.
With continued reference to fig. 5, the apparatus further includes: wind speed migration module 270.
The wind speed transplanting module 270 is configured to transplant the recurring period wind speed of the reference weather station to the temporary weather station, so as to obtain the recurring period wind speed of the temporary weather station.
The specific manner in which the various modules perform the operations in the apparatus of the above embodiments have been described in detail in connection with the embodiments of the method, and will not be described in detail herein.
In summary, the power transmission line design wind speed value device provided by the embodiment of the application can assimilate short-term meteorological observation data of a temporary meteorological station arranged along a power transmission line to be built into initial field data of a WRF mode, combines topographic data, surface vegetation type data, meteorological re-analysis data and long-term meteorological observation data of a long-term meteorological station of a research area, establishes a WRF model of the research area, simulates a plurality of times of high wind events of the research area by using the model, can obtain more accurate maximum wind speed of the research area, and calculates more accurate recurring period wind speed of each grid point on the basis, so that accurate section division can be performed on the power transmission line to be built, the design wind speed value of each section of the power transmission line to be built is obtained, the accuracy of the design wind speed value of the power transmission line in a rare area is improved, and the safety of the power transmission line engineering is improved.
In this application, the terms "first" and "second" are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance. The term "plurality" refers to two or more, unless explicitly defined otherwise.
Other embodiments of the present application will be apparent to those skilled in the art from consideration of the specification and practice of the present application disclosed herein. This application is intended to cover any variations, uses, or adaptations of the application following, in general, the principles of the application and including such departures from the present disclosure as come within known or customary practice within the art to which the application pertains. The specification and examples are to be regarded in an illustrative manner only.
It is to be understood that the present application is not limited to the precise arrangements and instrumentalities shown in the drawings, which have been described above, and that various modifications and changes may be effected without departing from the scope thereof. The scope of the application is limited only by the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. The method for evaluating the design wind speed of the power transmission line is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
acquiring short-term meteorological observation data, wherein the short-term meteorological observation data are acquired by more than one year of meteorological values at least one temporary meteorological station established along the line of a power transmission line to be built;
calculating the reappearance period wind speed of a reference weather station, wherein the reference weather station is selected from long-term weather stations in a research area, and the transmission line to be built is positioned in the research area;
Selecting a plurality of strong wind events from long-term meteorological observation data of the reference weather station according to the recurrent period wind speed of the reference weather station;
assimilating the short-term meteorological observation data into initial field data by using a data assimilation system of a weather forecast mode, and establishing a weather forecast model of the research area based on the topographic data, the surface vegetation type data, the weather re-analysis data, the long-term meteorological observation data of a long-term meteorological station and the assimilated initial field data of the research area;
simulating the research area by adopting the weather forecast model to obtain a wind speed simulation result of each high wind event in the research area;
calculating the ratio of the maximum wind speed of each grid point of the research area at the preset height in each high wind event to the maximum wind speed of the grid point corresponding to the temporary weather station at the preset height in each high wind event based on the wind speed simulation result;
calculating the reproduction period wind speed of each grid point of the research area at a preset height based on the ratio and the reproduction period wind speed of the temporary weather station, wherein the reproduction period wind speed of the temporary weather station is calculated according to the reproduction period wind speed of the reference weather station;
Dividing the line of the transmission line to be built into sections according to the recurring period wind speed of each grid point of the research area at a preset height to obtain the recurring period wind speed of each section;
converting the reproduction period wind speed of each section into a standard wind speed value under standard terrain conditions by utilizing the gradient change coefficient of the wind speed of each section along the height, and taking the standard wind speed value as a design wind speed value of the preset height of each section of the transmission line to be built.
2. The method for evaluating a design wind speed of a power transmission line according to claim 1, wherein before the short-term meteorological observation data is obtained, the method further comprises:
performing meteorological numerical simulation on the research area based on the topography data, the surface vegetation type data, the meteorological re-analysis data and the long-term meteorological observation data of the long-term meteorological station to obtain a wind speed distribution map of the research area;
and selecting one line from the candidate transmission lines as the transmission line to be built based on the wind speed distribution diagram of the research area.
3. The method for evaluating the design wind speed of a power transmission line according to claim 2, wherein before the short-term meteorological observation data is acquired, the method further comprises:
And selecting a setting position of the temporary weather station based on a wind speed distribution diagram of the research area, wherein the setting position accords with at least one condition of an upwind direction of incoming wind, a climbing section of wind, a maximum wind speed position and a strong wind boundary along the to-be-built power transmission line.
4. The method for evaluating the design wind speed of the power transmission line according to claim 1, wherein the simulating the research area by using the weather forecast model to obtain the wind speed simulation result of each high wind event in the research area comprises the following steps:
and simulating the research area by adopting the weather forecast model to obtain an initial simulation wind field, and correcting the initial simulation wind field by adopting a gradual correction method to obtain wind speed simulation results of a plurality of strong wind processes in the research area.
5. The method for evaluating the design wind speed of the power transmission line according to claim 1, wherein the reference weather station is obtained by selecting the following steps:
selecting a plurality of candidate long-term weather stations from the long-term weather stations within the investigation region;
and selecting at least one reference weather station from the candidate long-term weather stations based on the correlation coefficient of the contemporaneous day maximum wind speed of the temporary weather station and the candidate long-term weather stations and the rising and falling consistency of the wind speed in the high wind event.
6. A power transmission line design wind speed valuation device, the device comprising:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring short-term meteorological observation data, wherein the short-term meteorological observation data are acquired by more than one year of meteorological values at least one temporary meteorological station established along the line of a power transmission line to be established;
the calculation module is used for calculating the reappearance period wind speed of the reference weather station, wherein the reference weather station is selected from long-term weather stations in a research area, and the transmission line to be built is positioned in the research area;
the selecting module is used for selecting a plurality of strong wind events from long-term meteorological observation data of the reference weather station according to the recurring period wind speed of the reference weather station;
the model building module is used for assimilating the short-term meteorological observation data into initial field data by using a data assimilation system of a weather forecast mode, and building a weather forecast model of the research area based on the topographic data, the surface vegetation type data, the weather re-analysis data, the long-term meteorological observation data of a long-term meteorological station and the assimilated initial field data of the research area;
the simulation module is used for simulating the research area by adopting the weather forecast model to obtain a wind speed simulation result of each high wind event in the research area;
The calculation module is further used for calculating the ratio of the maximum wind speed of each grid point of the research area at the preset height in each high wind event to the maximum wind speed of the grid point corresponding to the temporary weather station at the preset height in each high wind event based on the wind speed simulation result; calculating the reproduction period wind speed of each grid point of the research area at a preset height based on the ratio and the reproduction period wind speed of the temporary weather station, wherein the reproduction period wind speed of the temporary weather station is calculated according to the reproduction period wind speed of the reference weather station;
the value taking module is used for dividing the line of the transmission line to be built into sections according to the reproduction period wind speed of each grid point of the research area at a preset height to obtain the reproduction period wind speed of each section; converting the reproduction period wind speed of each section into a standard wind speed value under standard terrain conditions by utilizing the gradient change coefficient of the wind speed of each section along the height, and taking the standard wind speed value as a design wind speed value of the preset height of each section of the transmission line to be built.
7. The transmission line design wind speed value device according to claim 6, wherein,
the simulation module is further used for carrying out weather forecast simulation on the research area based on the topographic data, the surface vegetation type data, the weather re-analysis data and the long-term weather observation data of the long-term weather station of the research area to obtain a wind speed distribution diagram of the research area;
The selecting module is further configured to select a line from the candidate transmission lines as the transmission line to be built based on the wind speed distribution diagram of the research area.
8. The power transmission line design wind speed assessment device according to claim 7, wherein the selection module is further configured to select a setting position of the temporary weather station based on a wind speed profile of the investigation region, where the setting position meets at least one condition of an upwind direction, a climbing section of wind, a maximum wind speed and a boundary of a strong wind of an incoming wind along the power transmission line to be built.
9. The power transmission line design wind speed value device according to claim 6, wherein the simulation module is configured to simulate the research area by using the weather forecast model to obtain an initial simulated wind field, and correct the initial simulated wind field by using a gradual correction method to obtain wind speed simulation results of a plurality of strong wind processes in the research area.
10. The transmission line design wind speed valuation apparatus of claim 6, wherein the selection module is further configured to:
selecting a plurality of candidate long-term weather stations from the long-term weather stations within the investigation region;
And selecting at least one reference weather station from the candidate long-term weather stations based on the correlation coefficient of the contemporaneous day maximum wind speed of the temporary weather station and the candidate long-term weather stations and the rising and falling consistency of the wind speed in the high wind event.
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