CN113554528A - Method and system for analyzing electric power spot market clearing result - Google Patents
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Abstract
The application relates to a method and a system for analyzing a clearing result of a power spot market, wherein the method comprises the following steps: and after the current clear result is obtained, various indexes are directly analyzed, so that the timeliness of the analysis result is ensured. The current date of birth results at least includes: and (5) a unit start-stop result, and a unit output result and a unit price settlement result on the same day. Correspondingly, the clear result analysis comprises the following steps: analyzing the starting and stopping reasons of the unit to generate a starting and stopping reason analysis result of the unit; analyzing the reason for the limitation of the unit to generate an analysis result of the reason for the limitation of the unit; and performing power price analysis and section blockage reason analysis based on the unit limitation reason analysis result to generate a current day settlement power price analysis result and a section blockage reason analysis result. And finally, integrating and outputting the unit starting and stopping reason analysis result, the unit limitation reason analysis result, the current day settlement price analysis result and the section blocking reason analysis result, ensuring the comprehensiveness of the analysis result and further determining the reasonability of the clearing result.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of electric power data analysis, in particular to a method and a system for analyzing electric power spot market clearing results.
Background
In the electricity spot market, the rationality and interpretability of the clearing results is of paramount importance, otherwise the market body will not be able to establish trust in the spot market. At present, a dispatcher mainly judges the rationality of the clearing result on the same day by limited manual experience, or obtains the conclusion of the rationality of the clearing result by carrying out data statistical analysis afterwards, but the comprehensiveness is difficult to ensure by the manual analysis, and the instantaneity cannot be ensured by the post-analysis.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to overcome the problem of lack of comprehensiveness and instantaneity of the related technology at least to a certain extent, the application provides a method and a system for analyzing the electric power spot market clearing result.
The scheme of the application is as follows:
according to a first aspect of embodiments of the present application, there is provided a method for analyzing a power spot market clearing result, including:
obtaining the current clear result; the current date clearing result at least comprises: the unit start-stop result, the current day settlement electricity price and the unit output result;
analyzing the starting and stopping reasons of the unit to generate a starting and stopping reason analysis result of the unit;
analyzing the reason for the limitation of the unit to generate an analysis result of the reason for the limitation of the unit;
carrying out power price analysis based on the unit limitation reason analysis result to generate a current day settlement power price analysis result;
analyzing the fracture surface blockage reason based on the analysis result of the unit limited reason to generate an analysis result of the fracture surface blockage reason;
and integrating and outputting the unit start-stop reason analysis result, the unit limitation reason analysis result, the current day settlement electricity price analysis result and the section blocking reason analysis result.
Preferably, in an implementation manner of the present application, the performing the analysis of the cause of the start-stop of the plant includes:
acquiring the power generation cost, the grid connection time and the continuous start-stop time of each unit;
judging a unit start-stop reason corresponding to the unit start-stop result of each unit based on the power generation cost, the grid connection time, the continuous start-stop time of each unit and whether the state of the unit start-stop result of each unit is changed after the network safety constraint; wherein, the unit start-stop reason includes at least: the earliest grid connection time reason, the minimum start-stop time reason, the designated state reason, the economic reason and the safety reason.
Preferably, in an implementable manner of the present application, the performing unit limitation cause analysis includes:
acquiring shadow prices constrained by all physical parameters of a unit, and judging whether the shadow prices constrained by all the physical parameters of the unit are 0 or not;
and determining the physical parameter constraint with the shadow price not being 0 as the machine set limitation reason of the machine set.
Preferably, in an implementation manner of the present application, the performing the analysis of the cause of the unit limitation further includes:
and if the shadow prices constrained by all the physical parameters of the unit are 0, determining that the unit is not limited, and determining that the unit is a marginal unit of the node where the unit is located.
Preferably, in an implementable manner of the present application, the performing of the electricity price analysis based on the unit limitation reason analysis result includes:
judging whether the electricity price trend is reasonable;
if the electricity price trend is abnormal, judging the abnormal type and the abnormal time period of the abnormal electricity price;
and judging the abnormal reason of the abnormal electricity price based on the analysis result of the limited reason of the unit.
Preferably, in an implementable manner of the present application, the determining whether the trend of the electricity prices is reasonable includes:
acquiring a weighted average node electricity price sequence and a market load sequence of the nodes;
judging an affinity degree index of a correlation relation between the weighted average node electricity price sequence and the market load sequence based on the Pearson correlation coefficient index;
when the closeness index of the correlation between the weighted average node electricity price sequence and the market load sequence is not less than a preset closeness index, judging that the electricity price trend is reasonable;
and when the closeness index of the correlation between the weighted average node electricity price sequence and the market load sequence is smaller than a preset closeness index, judging that the electricity price trend is abnormal.
Preferably, in an implementable manner of the present application, the determining the abnormal type and the abnormal period of the abnormal electricity price includes:
judging the electricity price higher than the upper limit of a preset electricity price expected value in the electricity price trend as an overhigh electricity price, and marking an abnormal time period of the overhigh electricity price;
judging the electricity price lower than the lower limit of a preset electricity price expected value in the electricity price trend as the low-electricity price, and marking the abnormal time period of the low-electricity price;
and detecting the mutation power price in the power price trend based on an isolated forest method, and marking the abnormal time period of the mutation power price.
Preferably, in an implementation manner of the present application, the determining the abnormal reason of the abnormal electricity price based on the analysis result of the unit limitation reason includes:
judging whether the current power grid is blocked or not;
if the current power grid is blocked, determining that the abnormal reason is the blockage of the current power grid;
if the current power grid is not blocked, judging the abnormal reason of the abnormal electricity price based on the analysis result of the limited reason of the unit; the causes of the abnormality include at least: and abnormal marginal units caused by unit quotation abnormity and abnormal constraint.
Preferably, in an implementation manner of the present application, the analyzing the cause of the blocking of the fracture surface based on the analysis result of the limited cause of the unit includes:
judging whether the node load flow is abnormal or not;
if the node load flow is abnormal, determining that the section blocking reason is the node load flow is abnormal;
if the node load flow is not abnormal, analyzing the section blocking reason according to the unit limitation reason with sensitivity to the section;
if the node load flow is not abnormal, analyzing the section blocking reason according to the unit limited reason with sensitivity to the section, wherein the analysis comprises the following steps:
if the unit has opposite sensitivity to different sections, determining the section blocking reason as a section coupling reason;
if the unit is limited to stop, determining the section blocking reason as a start-stop scheduling reason;
and if the unit is limited by the upper and lower output limits, determining the fracture surface blockage reason as an economic dispatching reason.
According to a second aspect of the embodiments of the present application, there is provided a system for analyzing a power spot market outlook result, including:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the clearing result on the day; the current date clearing result at least comprises: the unit start-stop result, the current day settlement electricity price and the unit output result;
the analysis module is used for analyzing the reason of the start and the stop of the unit and generating the analysis result of the reason of the start and the stop of the unit; analyzing the reason for the limitation of the unit to generate an analysis result of the reason for the limitation of the unit; carrying out power price analysis based on the unit limitation reason analysis result to generate a current day settlement power price analysis result; analyzing the fracture surface blockage reason based on the analysis result of the unit limited reason to generate an analysis result of the fracture surface blockage reason;
and the output module is used for integrating and outputting the unit start-stop reason analysis result, the unit limitation reason analysis result, the current day settlement electricity price analysis result and the section blocking reason analysis result.
The technical scheme provided by the application can comprise the following beneficial effects: according to the method for analyzing the electric power spot market clearing result, various indexes are directly analyzed after the clearing result on the day is obtained, and therefore timeliness of the analysis result is guaranteed. The current date of birth results at least includes: and (5) a unit start-stop result, and a unit output result and a unit price settlement result on the same day. Correspondingly, the clear result analysis comprises the following steps: analyzing the starting and stopping reasons of the unit to generate a starting and stopping reason analysis result of the unit; analyzing the reason for the limitation of the unit to generate an analysis result of the reason for the limitation of the unit; carrying out electricity price analysis based on the analysis result of the limited reason of the unit to generate a current day settlement electricity price analysis result; and analyzing the fracture surface blockage reason based on the analysis result of the unit limited reason to generate an analysis result of the fracture surface blockage reason. And finally, integrating and outputting the unit starting and stopping reason analysis result, the unit limited reason analysis result, the current day settlement electricity price analysis result and the section blocking reason analysis result, and obtaining the analysis result of the clearing result through instant data statistical analysis in the application, thereby ensuring the comprehensiveness of the analysis result and further determining the reasonability of the clearing result according to the analysis result of each clearing result.
It is to be understood that both the foregoing general description and the following detailed description are exemplary and explanatory only and are not restrictive of the application.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments consistent with the present application and together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the application.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart illustrating a method for analyzing the export result of the power spot market according to an embodiment of the present application;
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart diagram illustrating a method for analyzing the export result of the power spot market according to another embodiment of the present disclosure;
fig. 3 is a schematic flowchart illustrating a process of analyzing a cause of section blocking based on a unit limitation cause analysis result in a method for analyzing a clearing result of an electric power spot market according to an embodiment of the present application;
fig. 4 is a schematic structural diagram of a system for analyzing a power spot market clearing result according to an embodiment of the present application.
Reference numerals: an acquisition module-21; an analysis module-22; and an output module-23.
Detailed Description
Reference will now be made in detail to the exemplary embodiments, examples of which are illustrated in the accompanying drawings. When the following description refers to the accompanying drawings, like numbers in different drawings represent the same or similar elements unless otherwise indicated. The embodiments described in the following exemplary embodiments do not represent all embodiments consistent with the present application. Rather, they are merely examples of apparatus and methods consistent with certain aspects of the present application, as detailed in the appended claims.
A method of analyzing the power spot market clearing result, referring to fig. 1, comprising:
s11: obtaining the current clear result; the current date of birth results at least includes: the unit start-stop result, the current day settlement electricity price and the unit output result;
in the electric power spot market, the rationality and interpretability of the clearing results are of great importance, and the clearing results generally include: and (5) a unit start-stop result, and a unit output result and a unit price settlement result on the same day. The purge results are used to distribute to market entities.
In order to guarantee the timeliness of the reasonability analysis of the clearing result, the clearing result is obtained in the present application on the same day.
S12: analyzing the starting and stopping reasons of the unit to generate a starting and stopping reason analysis result of the unit;
s13: analyzing the reason for the limitation of the unit to generate an analysis result of the reason for the limitation of the unit;
s14: carrying out electricity price analysis based on the analysis result of the limited reason of the unit to generate a current day settlement electricity price analysis result;
s15: analyzing the fracture surface blockage reason based on the analysis result of the unit limited reason to generate an analysis result of the fracture surface blockage reason;
s16: and integrating and outputting the analysis result of the start and stop reasons of the unit, the analysis result of the limited reasons of the unit, the analysis result of the current day settlement price and the analysis result of the section blocking reasons.
In the embodiment, the accuracy, feasibility and rationality of the unit starting and stopping result, the electricity price and the unit output result are settled on the same day are analyzed. And specific analysis results are generated, so that the market subject can further know the current clear results. For example, the following steps are carried out: the market main body sometimes can question the clear result, and the unit opens and stops reason analysis result in this application just provides corresponding explanation.
Because the clear-out result does not include unit limitation, the reason for unit limitation in the application is mainly to analyze the electricity price and the reason for section blockage by combining the reason for unit limitation.
In the method for analyzing the export result of the electric power spot market, various indexes are directly analyzed after the export result of the current day is obtained, so that the timeliness of the analysis result is ensured. The current date of birth results at least includes: and (5) a unit start-stop result, and a unit output result and a unit price settlement result on the same day. Correspondingly, the clear result analysis comprises the following steps: analyzing the starting and stopping reasons of the unit to generate a starting and stopping reason analysis result of the unit; analyzing the reason for the limitation of the unit to generate an analysis result of the reason for the limitation of the unit; carrying out electricity price analysis based on the analysis result of the limited reason of the unit to generate a current day settlement electricity price analysis result; and analyzing the fracture surface blockage reason based on the analysis result of the unit limited reason to generate an analysis result of the fracture surface blockage reason. And finally, integrating and outputting the unit start-stop reason analysis result, the unit limited reason analysis result, the current day settlement electricity price analysis result and the section blocking reason analysis result, and obtaining the clear analysis result through instant data statistical analysis in the embodiment, so that the comprehensiveness of the analysis result is ensured, and the reasonability of the clear analysis result can be determined according to the analysis results of all clear results.
In some embodiments, the method for analyzing the export result of the power spot market performs the analysis of the cause of start and stop of the unit, and includes:
acquiring the power generation cost, the grid connection time and the continuous start-stop time of each unit;
judging a unit start-stop reason corresponding to the unit start-stop result of each unit based on the power generation cost, the grid connection time, the continuous start-stop time of each unit and whether the state of the unit start-stop result of each unit is changed after the network safety constraint; wherein, the unit opens and stops the reason and include at least: the earliest grid connection time reason, the minimum start-stop time reason, the designated state reason, the economic reason and the safety reason.
In the analysis of the start-stop reason of the unit, the power generation cost, the grid connection time and the continuous start-stop time are constants which can be directly obtained.
The power generation cost will determine the start-stop result of the unit, and generally, the unit with low start-up cost and low price is started preferentially. The unit may also be forced to stop due to insufficient grid connection time. In the time interval following the initial time interval of each day, the unit may be forced to start or stop due to insufficient continuous start-stop time.
When the reason for starting and stopping the unit is analyzed, whether the starting and stopping result of the unit is restricted by network safety needs to be considered. When there is a network security constraint, the start-stop state of the unit is adjusted for security reasons, which may cause the unit with high start-up cost to start up for alleviating the fracture surface blockage, and the unit with low start-up cost to shut down instead.
Therefore, the reason for starting and stopping the unit corresponding to the starting and stopping result without the network security constraint at least comprises the following steps: the earliest grid connection time reason, the minimum start-stop time reason, the designated state reason and the economic reason. And if the start-stop result with the network safety constraint is different from the start-stop result without the network safety constraint, the unit start-stop reason corresponding to the start-stop result with the network safety constraint is considered as a safety reason.
In some embodiments, the method for analyzing the export result of the power spot market performs analysis on the reason for the limitation of the unit, and includes:
acquiring shadow prices constrained by all physical parameters of the unit, and judging whether the shadow prices constrained by all the physical parameters of the unit are 0 or not;
and determining the physical parameter constraint with the shadow price not being 0 as the reason for the limited unit of the unit.
Whether a unit is limited or not can be judged by two methods. Firstly, checking whether physical parameter constraints related to a unit take equal signs one by one to judge whether the resource is exhausted; and secondly, judging through the shadow price constrained by the relevant physical parameters of the unit.
The result of the first method may be biased, so the second method is employed in the present embodiment.
According to the complementary relaxation condition λ g (x) 0 in the KKT condition
Wherein g (x) is not more than 0, λ is not less than 0, λ is lagrange multiplier of g (x), if g (x) is 0, λ is not less than 0, if g (x) is less than 0, λ is 0.
If the shadow price is not 0, the unit is considered to be limited, and if the shadow price is 0, the unit is not limited.
When the problem has multiple solutions, the shadow price of the constraint may still be 0 even if the inequality takes an equal sign. There are cases where the unit capacity reaches the adjustable capacity upper limit but the shadow price is actually 0, at which time the unit should not be considered limited by this resource.
In this embodiment, it may be determined whether the shadow price of the unit-related physical parameter constraint is 0 item by item, and the physical parameter constraint whose shadow price is not 0 is determined as the cause of the unit limitation of the unit.
The reasons for the limitation of the unit generally include: the unit can adjust the upper and lower limits of output and the up-down climbing capacity. For example, if the shadow price of the adjustable upper and lower output limits of the unit is not 0, the limited reason of the unit includes the adjustable upper and lower output limits of the unit.
Further, the analysis of the reason for the limited unit also includes:
and if the shadow prices constrained by all the physical parameters of the unit are 0, determining that the unit is not limited, and determining that the unit is a marginal unit of the node where the unit is located.
The node electricity price is essentially the variable quantity of the whole network cost caused by the micro-increase of the unit load of the node, and the marginal unit set mentioned in the embodiment is a unit set which provides the micro-increase output to balance the micro-increase load of the node. If the unit is limited, the micro-increase power cannot be provided, so that whether the unit is a marginal unit can be judged by determining whether the unit is limited. And if the shadow prices constrained by all the physical parameters of the unit are 0, determining that the unit is not limited, and determining that the unit is a marginal unit of the node where the unit is located.
In some embodiments, the method for analyzing the export result of the power spot market performs power price analysis based on the analysis result of the unit limitation reason, and includes:
judging whether the electricity price trend is reasonable;
if the electricity price trend is abnormal, judging the abnormal type and the abnormal time period of the abnormal electricity price;
and judging the abnormal reason of the abnormal electricity price based on the analysis result of the limited reason of the unit.
In this embodiment, the power rate analysis is performed to first determine whether the power rate trend is reasonable, and if so, the subsequent steps are not performed. And if the electricity price trend is abnormal, judging the abnormal type and the abnormal time period of the abnormal electricity price. And finally, judging the abnormal reason of the abnormal electricity price based on the analysis result of the limited reason of the unit.
In some embodiments, the method for analyzing the export result of the power spot market, determining whether the trend of the electricity price is reasonable, includes:
acquiring a weighted average node electricity price sequence and a market load sequence of the nodes;
judging an affinity degree index of a correlation relation between the weighted average node electricity price sequence and the market load sequence based on the Pearson correlation coefficient index;
when the closeness index of the correlation between the weighted average node electricity price sequence and the market load sequence is not less than the preset closeness index, judging that the electricity price trend is reasonable;
and when the closeness index of the correlation between the weighted average node electricity price sequence and the market load sequence is smaller than the preset closeness index, judging that the electricity price trend is abnormal.
Generally, the node load and the load change show positive correlation, that is, the larger the load is, the higher the node electricity price is. In order to quantify the correlation between the two, a Pearson correlation coefficient index is adopted in the embodiment to quantify the degree of closeness of the correlation between the weighted average node electricity price sequence and the market load sequence.
In order to improve the accuracy of the electricity price analysis, the preset closeness index is set to 0.8 in the present embodiment. Namely, when the preset closeness degree index is not less than 0.8, the electricity price trend is judged to be reasonable, otherwise, the electricity price trend is judged to be abnormal, and further analysis is needed.
In some embodiments, the method for analyzing the export result of the electric power spot market, determining the abnormal type and the abnormal time period of the abnormal electricity price includes:
judging the electricity price higher than the upper limit of the preset electricity price expected value in the electricity price trend as overhigh electricity price, and marking an abnormal time period of the overhigh electricity price;
judging the electricity price lower than the lower limit of the preset electricity price expected value in the electricity price trend as the low electricity price, and marking the abnormal time period of the low electricity price;
and detecting the mutation electrovalence in the electrovalence trend based on an isolated forest method, and marking the abnormal time period of the mutation electrovalence.
Three types of abnormal electricity prices are mainly considered in the present embodiment: excessive electricity prices, insufficient electricity prices, and sudden electricity prices. These three abnormal electricity prices all reflect to some extent the price risk of the electricity market.
The over-high electricity price and the under-low electricity price are mainly judged by setting a fixed upper limit of an expected value of the electricity price and a fixed lower limit of the expected value of the electricity price, and if the over-high electricity price is higher than the upper limit of the expected value of the electricity price or the under-high electricity price is lower than the lower limit of the expected value of the electricity price, the abnormal price is judged.
The sudden change of the electricity price is mainly reflected in that the trend of the electricity price changes obviously in the adjacent time period. In order to reduce the dependence on the artificial mark and obtain the result quickly, the abnormal electricity price identification method based on the isolated forest is used for detecting the mutation electricity price in the embodiment. In addition, the abnormal electricity price identification method of the isolated forest does not need to calculate distance or density, has linear complexity and is faster than other abnormal detection methods.
In some embodiments, the method for analyzing the export result of the power spot market, based on the analysis result of the unit limitation reason, determining the abnormal reason of the abnormal electricity price, includes:
judging whether the current power grid is blocked or not;
if the current power grid is blocked, determining that the abnormal reason is the current power grid is blocked;
if the current power grid is not blocked, judging the abnormal reason of the abnormal electricity price based on the analysis result of the limited reason of the unit; the causes of the abnormality include at least: and abnormal marginal units caused by unit quotation abnormity and abnormal constraint.
If there is a blockage in the power grid, the reason for the abnormal electricity price is generally caused by the blockage. When the fracture reaches the bound, there is theoretically no upper limit to the shadow price. For example, A, B, C, D are four nodes, 1 is a section between A and B, 2 is a section between B and C, 3 is a section between C and D, and 4 is a section between A and D. A generator set is arranged at the node A, and a load is arranged at the node D. Assume that sections 1, 2, 3 are out of bounds and section 4 is bounded. According to the shadow price definition, if the quota of the cross section 4 is relaxed to 1MW, 1MW more power flows to the load through the cross section 4, so that under the condition of constant load, the cross sections 1, 2 and 3 can all relax the 1MW out-of-limit, and the total cost can be reduced by 3 times of the penalty factor. So if the profile is bounded, the value of the shadow price can theoretically far exceed the penalty factor. Therefore, when congestion occurs, the node power rate result is liable to have an abnormal result.
If the whole network is not blocked, the electricity price is equal to the quotation of the marginal unit. If an abnormal electricity price occurs at this time, it can be inferred that the unit price is higher (lower) in a group, or the "unit which should not be used as a margin" takes on the extra 1MW of power generation tasks. This is usually because the non-marginal unit is limited by other constraints, and therefore further explanation is needed in connection with the analysis result of the limited unit reason.
In some embodiments, the method for analyzing the export result of the power spot market, based on the analysis result of the unit limitation reason, performs the analysis of the cause of the section blockage, with reference to fig. 2, includes:
judging whether the node load flow is abnormal or not;
if the node load flow is abnormal, determining that the section blocking reason is the node load flow is abnormal;
if the node load flow is not abnormal, analyzing the blocking reason of the section according to the unit limited reason of the unit with sensitivity to the section; the method comprises the following steps:
if the unit has sensitivity in opposite directions to the plurality of sections, determining that the section blocking reason is a section coupling reason;
if the unit is limited to stop, determining the section blocking reason as a start-stop scheduling reason;
and if the unit is limited by the upper and lower output limits, determining the fracture surface blockage reason as an economic dispatching reason.
Fracture blockage includes fracture boundary reaching and fracture boundary crossing.
The section flow calculation formula can be expressed as:
FS＝Gk-sPG-Gl-sPD
wherein: fSIs the section tide; gk-sDistributing factors for power transfer of the node where each generator set is located to the section S; gl-sA power transfer distribution factor of the section S is obtained for the load node; pGThe output vector of the unit is taken as the output vector of the unit; pDIs the node load.
The analysis of the fracture surface blockage reason mainly comprises the following steps:
1. judging whether the node load flow is abnormal or not
In the market clearing process, the node load flow is usually used as a boundary condition of the market, and if the section is still out of limit after the maximum adjusting capacity of all the starting units is considered, the node load flow and the tie line data are judged to be abnormal.
2. And when the node load flow is not abnormal, checking all the reasons for limitation of the units with sensitivity to the section.
The limited tidal current adjusting capacity of the unit in the unit limitation is an important reason for section blockage. In the embodiment, the section blocking reason is divided into a section coupling reason, a start-stop scheduling reason and an economic scheduling reason according to the unit limitation reason. The reason for section coupling is mainly reflected in that the unit has sensitivity to a plurality of sections at the same time, and even has opposite sensitivity to different sections, which causes difficulty in adjusting section flow and even causes long calculation time. The start-stop scheduling reason is mainly embodied in that the unit is limited to halt when optimized output is provided. The economic dispatching reason is mainly embodied by the limitation of upper and lower output limits and the like when the unit optimizes the output.
A system for analyzing the results of a power spot market shipment, with reference to fig. 3, comprising:
an obtaining module 21, configured to obtain a current date clearing result; the current date of birth results at least includes: the unit start-stop result, the current day settlement electricity price and the unit output result;
the analysis module 22 is configured to analyze the cause of the start and stop of the unit and generate a result of the analysis of the cause of the start and stop of the unit; analyzing the reason for the limitation of the unit to generate an analysis result of the reason for the limitation of the unit; carrying out electricity price analysis based on the analysis result of the limited reason of the unit to generate a current day settlement electricity price analysis result; analyzing the fracture surface blockage reason based on the analysis result of the unit limited reason to generate an analysis result of the fracture surface blockage reason;
and the output module 23 is used for integrating and outputting the unit start-stop reason analysis result, the unit limitation reason analysis result, the current day settlement electricity price analysis result and the section blockage reason analysis result.
The system for analyzing the export result of the electric power spot market in the embodiment directly analyzes various indexes after acquiring the export result of the current day, thereby ensuring the timeliness of the analysis result. The current date of birth results at least includes: and (5) a unit start-stop result, and a unit output result and a unit price settlement result on the same day. Correspondingly, the clear result analysis comprises the following steps: analyzing the starting and stopping reasons of the unit to generate a starting and stopping reason analysis result of the unit; analyzing the reason for the limitation of the unit to generate an analysis result of the reason for the limitation of the unit; carrying out electricity price analysis based on the analysis result of the limited reason of the unit to generate a current day settlement electricity price analysis result; and analyzing the fracture surface blockage reason based on the analysis result of the unit limited reason to generate an analysis result of the fracture surface blockage reason. And finally, integrating and outputting the unit start-stop reason analysis result, the unit limited reason analysis result, the current day settlement electricity price analysis result and the section blocking reason analysis result, and obtaining the analysis result of the clearing result through instant data statistical analysis in the application, so that a worker can directly determine the reasonability of the clearing result according to the analysis result of each clearing result.
In some embodiments, the acquisition module 21 is further configured to acquire power generation cost, grid connection time, and continuous start-stop time of each unit;
the analysis module 22 is specifically configured to determine a unit start-stop reason corresponding to the unit start-stop result of each unit based on the power generation cost, the grid connection time, the continuous start-stop time of each unit, and whether the unit start-stop result of each unit is subject to network security constraints; wherein, the unit opens and stops the reason and include at least: the earliest grid connection time reason, the minimum start-stop time reason, the designated state reason, the economic reason and the safety reason.
In some embodiments, the obtaining module 21 is further configured to obtain shadow prices constrained by all physical parameters of the unit, and determine whether the shadow prices constrained by all the physical parameters of the unit are 0;
the analysis module 22 is specifically configured to determine physical parameter constraints with a shadow price of not 0 as a unit limitation reason of the unit; and if the shadow prices constrained by all the physical parameters of the unit are 0, determining that the unit is not limited, and determining that the unit is a marginal unit of the node where the unit is located.
In some embodiments, the analysis module 22 is specifically configured to determine whether the electricity price trend is reasonable; if the electricity price trend is abnormal, judging the abnormal type and the abnormal time period of the abnormal electricity price; and judging the abnormal reason of the abnormal electricity price based on the analysis result of the limited reason of the unit.
Wherein, judge whether the electrovalence trend is reasonable, include:
acquiring a weighted average node electricity price sequence and a market load sequence of the nodes; judging an affinity degree index of a correlation relation between the weighted average node electricity price sequence and the market load sequence based on the Pearson correlation coefficient index; when the closeness index of the correlation between the weighted average node electricity price sequence and the market load sequence is not less than the preset closeness index, judging that the electricity price trend is reasonable; and when the closeness index of the correlation between the weighted average node electricity price sequence and the market load sequence is smaller than the preset closeness index, judging that the electricity price trend is abnormal.
Judging the abnormal type and the abnormal time period of the abnormal electricity price, comprising the following steps:
judging the electricity price higher than the upper limit of the preset electricity price expected value in the electricity price trend as overhigh electricity price, and marking an abnormal time period of the overhigh electricity price; judging the electricity price lower than the lower limit of the preset electricity price expected value in the electricity price trend as the low electricity price, and marking the abnormal time period of the low electricity price; and detecting the mutation electrovalence in the electrovalence trend based on an isolated forest method, and marking the abnormal time period of the mutation electrovalence.
Judging the abnormal reason of the abnormal electricity price, comprising the following steps: judging whether the current power grid is blocked or not; if the current power grid is blocked, determining that the abnormal reason is the current power grid is blocked; if the current power grid is not blocked, judging the abnormal reason of the abnormal electricity price based on the analysis result of the limited reason of the unit; the causes of the abnormality include at least: the unit quoted price is abnormal collectively, and the non-marginal unit of the node bears extra power generation task.
In some embodiments, the system for analyzing the export result of the power spot market includes an analysis module 22, which is specifically configured to determine whether a node load flow is abnormal; if the node load flow is abnormal, determining that the section blocking reason is the node load flow is abnormal; if the node load flow is not abnormal, analyzing the blocking reason of the section according to the unit limited reason of the unit with sensitivity to the section; the method comprises the following steps: if the unit has opposite sensitivity to different sections, determining the section blocking reason as a section coupling reason; if the unit is limited to stop, determining the section blocking reason as a start-stop scheduling reason; and if the unit is limited by the upper and lower output limits, determining the fracture surface blockage reason as an economic dispatching reason.
An apparatus for analyzing power spot market outing results, comprising:
a processor and a memory;
the processor and the memory are connected through a communication bus:
the processor is used for calling and executing the program stored in the memory;
a memory for storing a program for performing at least one method of analyzing power spot market clearing results in any of the above embodiments.
A storage medium storing a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements the steps of the method for analyzing the power spot market shipment result according to the above embodiment of the present invention.
It is understood that the same or similar parts in the above embodiments may be mutually referred to, and the same or similar parts in other embodiments may be referred to for the content which is not described in detail in some embodiments.
It should be noted that, in the description of the present application, the terms "first", "second", etc. are used for descriptive purposes only and are not to be construed as indicating or implying relative importance. Further, in the description of the present application, the meaning of "a plurality" means at least two unless otherwise specified.
Any process or method descriptions in flow charts or otherwise described herein may be understood as representing modules, segments, or portions of code which include one or more executable instructions for implementing specific logical functions or steps of the process, and the scope of the preferred embodiments of the present application includes other implementations in which functions may be executed out of order from that shown or discussed, including substantially concurrently or in reverse order, depending on the functionality involved, as would be understood by those reasonably skilled in the art of the present application.
It should be understood that portions of the present application may be implemented in hardware, software, firmware, or a combination thereof. In the above embodiments, the various steps or methods may be implemented in software or firmware stored in memory and executed by a suitable instruction execution system. For example, if implemented in hardware, as in another embodiment, any one or combination of the following techniques, which are known in the art, may be used: a discrete logic circuit having a logic gate circuit for implementing a logic function on a data signal, an application specific integrated circuit having an appropriate combinational logic gate circuit, a Programmable Gate Array (PGA), a Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA), or the like.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that all or part of the steps carried by the method for implementing the above embodiments may be implemented by hardware related to instructions of a program, which may be stored in a computer readable storage medium, and when the program is executed, the program includes one or a combination of the steps of the method embodiments.
In addition, functional units in the embodiments of the present application may be integrated into one processing module, or each unit may exist alone physically, or two or more units are integrated into one module. The integrated module can be realized in a hardware mode, and can also be realized in a software functional module mode. The integrated module, if implemented in the form of a software functional module and sold or used as a stand-alone product, may also be stored in a computer readable storage medium.
The storage medium mentioned above may be a read-only memory, a magnetic or optical disk, etc.
In the description herein, reference to the description of the term "one embodiment," "some embodiments," "an example," "a specific example," or "some examples," etc., means that a particular feature, structure, material, or characteristic described in connection with the embodiment or example is included in at least one embodiment or example of the application. In this specification, the schematic representations of the terms used above do not necessarily refer to the same embodiment or example. Furthermore, the particular features, structures, materials, or characteristics described may be combined in any suitable manner in any one or more embodiments or examples.
Although embodiments of the present application have been shown and described above, it is understood that the above embodiments are exemplary and should not be construed as limiting the present application, and that variations, modifications, substitutions and alterations may be made to the above embodiments by those of ordinary skill in the art within the scope of the present application.
Claims (10)
1. A method for analyzing power spot market clearing results, comprising:
obtaining the current clear result; the current date clearing result at least comprises: the unit start-stop result, the current day settlement electricity price and the unit output result;
analyzing the starting and stopping reasons of the unit to generate a starting and stopping reason analysis result of the unit;
analyzing the reason for the limitation of the unit to generate an analysis result of the reason for the limitation of the unit;
carrying out power price analysis based on the unit limitation reason analysis result to generate a current day settlement power price analysis result;
analyzing the fracture surface blockage reason based on the analysis result of the unit limited reason to generate an analysis result of the fracture surface blockage reason;
and integrating and outputting the unit start-stop reason analysis result, the unit limitation reason analysis result, the current day settlement electricity price analysis result and the section blocking reason analysis result.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the performing a crew start-stop cause analysis comprises:
acquiring the power generation cost, the grid connection time and the continuous start-stop time of each unit;
judging a unit start-stop reason corresponding to the unit start-stop result of each unit based on the power generation cost, the grid connection time, the continuous start-stop time of each unit and whether the state of the unit start-stop result of each unit is changed after the network safety constraint; wherein, the unit start-stop reason includes at least: the earliest grid connection time reason, the minimum start-stop time reason, the designated state reason, the economic reason and the safety reason.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the performing crew limitation cause analysis comprises:
acquiring shadow prices constrained by all physical parameters of a unit, and judging whether the shadow prices constrained by all the physical parameters of the unit are 0 or not;
and determining the physical parameter constraint with the shadow price not being 0 as the machine set limitation reason of the machine set.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein the performing crew limitation cause analysis further comprises:
and if the shadow prices constrained by all the physical parameters of the unit are 0, determining that the unit is not limited, and determining that the unit is a marginal unit of the node where the unit is located.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein the performing the electricity price analysis based on the unit limitation reason analysis result comprises:
judging whether the electricity price trend is reasonable;
if the electricity price trend is abnormal, judging the abnormal type and the abnormal time period of the abnormal electricity price;
and judging the abnormal reason of the abnormal electricity price based on the analysis result of the limited reason of the unit.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the determining whether the trend of the electricity prices is reasonable comprises:
acquiring a weighted average node electricity price sequence and a market load sequence of the nodes;
judging an affinity degree index of a correlation relation between the weighted average node electricity price sequence and the market load sequence based on the Pearson correlation coefficient index;
when the closeness index of the correlation between the weighted average node electricity price sequence and the market load sequence is not less than a preset closeness index, judging that the electricity price trend is reasonable;
and when the closeness index of the correlation between the weighted average node electricity price sequence and the market load sequence is smaller than a preset closeness index, judging that the electricity price trend is abnormal.
7. The method according to claim 5, wherein the determining the abnormal type and the abnormal period of the abnormal electricity prices comprises:
judging the electricity price higher than the upper limit of a preset electricity price expected value in the electricity price trend as an overhigh electricity price, and marking an abnormal time period of the overhigh electricity price;
judging the electricity price lower than the lower limit of a preset electricity price expected value in the electricity price trend as the low-electricity price, and marking the abnormal time period of the low-electricity price;
and detecting the mutation power price in the power price trend based on an isolated forest method, and marking the abnormal time period of the mutation power price.
8. The method according to claim 5, wherein the determining the abnormal reason of the abnormal electricity price based on the analysis result of the unit limitation reason comprises:
judging whether the current power grid is blocked or not;
if the current power grid is blocked, determining that the abnormal reason is the blockage of the current power grid;
if the current power grid is not blocked, judging the abnormal reason of the abnormal electricity price based on the analysis result of the limited reason of the unit; the causes of the abnormality include at least: and abnormal marginal units caused by unit quotation abnormity and abnormal constraint.
9. The method according to claim 1, wherein the analyzing the fracture surface blockage reason based on the analysis result of the unit limited reason comprises:
judging whether the node load flow is abnormal or not;
if the node load flow is abnormal, determining that the section blocking reason is the node load flow is abnormal;
if the node load flow is not abnormal, analyzing the section blocking reason according to the unit limitation reason with sensitivity to the section;
if the node load flow is not abnormal, analyzing the section blocking reason according to the unit limited reason with sensitivity to the section, wherein the analysis comprises the following steps:
if the unit has opposite sensitivity to different sections, determining the section blocking reason as a section coupling reason;
if the unit is limited to stop, determining the section blocking reason as a start-stop scheduling reason;
and if the unit is limited by the upper and lower output limits, determining the fracture surface blockage reason as an economic dispatching reason.
10. A system for analyzing power spot market checkout results, comprising:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring the clearing result on the day; the current date clearing result at least comprises: the unit start-stop result, the current day settlement electricity price and the unit output result;
the analysis module is used for analyzing the reason of the start and the stop of the unit and generating the analysis result of the reason of the start and the stop of the unit; analyzing the reason for the limitation of the unit to generate an analysis result of the reason for the limitation of the unit; carrying out power price analysis based on the unit limitation reason analysis result to generate a current day settlement power price analysis result; analyzing the fracture surface blockage reason based on the analysis result of the unit limited reason to generate an analysis result of the fracture surface blockage reason;
and the output module is used for integrating and outputting the unit start-stop reason analysis result, the unit limitation reason analysis result, the current day settlement electricity price analysis result and the section blocking reason analysis result.
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