CN113554351A - Deepwater diameter cast-in-situ bored pile construction risk assessment method based on two-dimensional cloud model - Google Patents

Deepwater diameter cast-in-situ bored pile construction risk assessment method based on two-dimensional cloud model Download PDF

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CN113554351A
CN113554351A CN202110968216.7A CN202110968216A CN113554351A CN 113554351 A CN113554351 A CN 113554351A CN 202110968216 A CN202110968216 A CN 202110968216A CN 113554351 A CN113554351 A CN 113554351A
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cloud
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bored pile
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王飞
吕忠达
赵�卓
汪鹏飞
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Ningbo University of Technology
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Abstract

The invention discloses a deepwater diameter bored pile construction risk assessment method based on a two-dimensional cloud model, and relates to the technical field of bridge construction risk assessment. The invention comprises the following steps: acquiring a construction risk accident list of the deepwater large-diameter bored pile and risk factors causing accidents; establishing a hierarchical risk assessment index system; on the basis of a risk assessment index system, a combined weighted two-dimensional cloud model assessment method is applied to obtain the digital features of risk clouds at all levels; inputting the digital characteristics of the risk cloud into a forward two-dimensional cloud generator to output a risk cloud picture, and further confirming the risk level by adopting the two-dimensional cloud similarity. The invention provides a more systematic and practical and effective deepwater large-diameter cast-in-situ bored pile risk assessment method.

Description

Deepwater diameter cast-in-situ bored pile construction risk assessment method based on two-dimensional cloud model
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of bridge construction risk assessment, in particular to a deepwater diameter bored pile construction risk assessment method based on a two-dimensional cloud model.
Background
With the continuous extension of large-scale bridge engineering construction to the ocean and deep water areas, the deep water pile foundation is also developing towards large diameter, however, the construction accidents of the deep water large-diameter bored pile foundation frequently occur and serious consequences are brought due to the severe ocean deep water environment, complex geological conditions, special equipment and special processes. Therefore, scientific construction risk assessment is carried out on the foundation of the deep-water large-diameter bored pile, theoretical basis is provided for risk decision, the possibility of accident occurrence and the generated consequences are reduced, and the method has very important significance. At present, in the construction risk assessment of the deepwater large-diameter bored pile, aiming at the problem that the amplification effect of the increase of the construction water depth and the increase of the pile diameter on the construction risk and the difference of risk accidents are not fully considered, a common fuzzy mathematical evaluation model is only started from a fuzzy type with uncertain risk but does not relate to randomness, double dimensions with probability and loss are not combined well, a single main and objective empowerment method is strong in dependency on experts, and the possibility that the assessment result is contradictory to the actual situation exists, so that a more systematic and practical and effective deepwater large-diameter bored pile risk assessment method is urgently needed to be applied.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the invention provides a deepwater large-diameter bored pile construction risk assessment method based on a two-dimensional cloud model, which can effectively solve the problems in the background art.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a deepwater diameter cast-in-situ bored pile construction risk assessment method based on a two-dimensional cloud model comprises the following steps:
acquiring a construction risk accident list of the deepwater large-diameter bored pile and risk factors causing accidents;
establishing a hierarchical risk assessment index system;
on the basis of a risk assessment index system, a combined weighted two-dimensional cloud model assessment method is applied to obtain the digital features of risk clouds at all levels;
inputting the digital characteristics of the risk cloud into a forward two-dimensional cloud generator to output a risk cloud picture, and further confirming the risk level by adopting the two-dimensional cloud similarity.
Preferably, the combined weighted two-dimensional cloud model evaluation method includes: obtaining risk probability and loss grade according to a risk evaluation criterion, and giving weight to the risk probability and the loss grade by adopting game theory combination weighting; and performing comprehensive operation on the risk assessment index system by using a two-dimensional cloud model.
Preferably, the game theory combined weighting comprises a G1 series relation method, an entropy weight method and a game theory combined weighting method;
wherein, G1 order relation method: determining the important ranking of each risk index, determining the adjacent importance of each risk index, calculating the weight coefficient of each risk index, and calculating the comprehensive weight coefficient according to the important ranking of each risk index, the adjacent importance of each risk index and the weight coefficient of each risk index;
entropy weight method: establishing a standard evaluation matrix, and calculating the characteristic proportion p of the estimation indexljAnd an entropy value ejCalculating objective entropy weight of each index;
the game theory combination weighting method comprises the following steps: and constructing a weight vector set and solving the optimal combination weight.
The technical scheme has the following beneficial effects:
when index empowerment is carried out on the deepwater large-diameter bored pile, the construction complexity and the particularity of the bored pile are considered, the objective data of risk indexes are considered, the scientific and reasonable estimation needs to be carried out simultaneously, and a game theory combination empowerment method is introduced for the method. The principle of the game theory combined weighting method is that the optimal weight combination with the main weight and the objective weight which are relatively balanced and coordinated is sought, so that the deviation between the optimal weight combination and the main weight and the objective weight is minimum, and the science and the accuracy of weighting are improved.
Preferably, the two-dimensional cloud model is obtained as follows:
scoring the occurrence probability and the loss consequence of the risk factor index, and calculating the digital characteristics of the risk cloud to obtain a primary risk cloud;
and (4) converging the primary risk clouds of the risk factor indexes into a risk cloud matrix, and obtaining a two-dimensional cloud model according to the weight obtained by the weight construction method.
Preferably, the two-dimensional cloud model is as follows:
Figure BDA0003224693650000031
in the formula, ExnFor sample expectation, ωnAnd Ex ', En ' and He ' are expected values, entropies and super entropies of the two-dimensional cloud model.
Preferably, the two-dimensional cloud similarity formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003224693650000032
Figure BDA0003224693650000033
and Ex are the consequence level expected values of the standard risk cloud and the actual risk cloud respectively;
Figure BDA0003224693650000034
and Ex' are probability level expectation values of the standard risk cloud and the actual risk cloud, respectively.
The technical scheme has the following beneficial effects:
uncertain things have two important features, ambiguity and randomness. The specific algorithm of the cloud model can well combine two aspects of ambiguity and randomness to enable the directional concept and quantitative data to complete conversion, effectively combines two dimensions, probability and loss of risk, and can be finally displayed in the form of an output cloud picture, so that the method is more scientific, visual and vivid compared with the traditional fuzzy set method.
According to the technical scheme, compared with the prior art, the invention discloses a deepwater diameter cast-in-situ bored pile construction risk assessment method based on a two-dimensional cloud model, and the method has the following beneficial effects:
when index empowerment is carried out on the deepwater large-diameter bored pile, the construction complexity and the particularity of the bored pile are considered, the objective data of risk indexes are considered, the scientific and reasonable estimation needs to be carried out simultaneously, and a game theory combination empowerment method is introduced for the method. The principle of the game theory combined weighting method is that the optimal weight combination with the main weight and the objective weight which are relatively balanced and coordinated is sought, so that the deviation between the optimal weight combination and the main weight and the objective weight is minimum, and the science and the accuracy of weighting are improved;
when index empowerment is carried out on the deepwater large-diameter bored pile, the construction complexity and the particularity of the bored pile are considered, the objective data of risk indexes are considered, the scientific and reasonable estimation needs to be carried out simultaneously, and a game theory combination empowerment method is introduced for the method. The principle of the game theory combined weighting method is that the optimal weight combination with the main weight and the objective weight which are relatively balanced and coordinated is sought, so that the deviation between the optimal weight combination and the main weight and the objective weight is minimum, and the science and the accuracy of weighting are improved.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described below, it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only embodiments of the present invention, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the provided drawings without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 a-1 c are design diagrams of a foundation structure of a deep-water large-diameter bored pile according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a comprehensive risk cloud chart for construction of a deepwater large-diameter bored pile according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a comprehensive grade cloud chart of various risk accidents in deepwater large-diameter bored pile construction according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a schematic flow chart of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
The embodiment of the invention discloses a deepwater large-diameter bored pile construction risk assessment method based on a two-dimensional cloud model, which comprises the following steps of:
step 1, identifying construction risks
And (4) investigating and analyzing accident cases of related actual projects, developing risk identification by combining actual characteristics of the evaluation project, forming a construction risk accident list of the deepwater large-diameter bored pile, and identifying risk factors causing accidents.
Step 2, establishing a risk assessment index system
And establishing a hierarchical risk assessment index system, taking the risk accident as the leading factor, and incorporating the included risk factors into the risk index system. Firstly, establishing 'deep water large-diameter cast-in-situ bored pile construction risk estimation' as a risk target layer index of a first layer of an index system; secondly, arranging the risk accidents identified by the risks according to the construction procedures to serve as the risk attribute layer indexes of the second layer of the index system; and finally, taking the risk factors causing the accidents as risk factor layer indexes of the third layer of the index system.
Step 3, evaluating method by applying combined weighted two-dimensional cloud model
And quantitatively scoring the risk probability and the loss grade of the evaluation indexes according to a risk evaluation criterion, giving weights to all indexes by adopting a game theory combination weighting method, and performing comprehensive operation on a risk evaluation index system by using a two-dimensional cloud model to obtain the risk cloud digital characteristics of all grades of indexes, including a first-grade risk cloud, a second-grade risk cloud and a final comprehensive risk cloud.
The specific steps determined in step 3 are as follows:
3.1 Game theory combination empowerment
(1) G1 order relation method
1) Determining importance ranking of indicators
Sorting the importance degree of each risk index according to the evaluation standard, and if the risk index x isiRelative degree of importance higher than xjThen use xi＞xjIndicating that when a plurality of risk evaluation indexes exist, the risk evaluation indexes are used after being sorted
Figure BDA0003224693650000064
And (4) showing.
2) Determining the adjacent importance of each index
After the order relation of each index is determined, an importance coefficient r between each adjacent index needs to be givenk，rkCan be expressed as the ratio of the former index to the latter index, and is assigned with reference to table 1.
TABLE 1 rkAssignment reference table
rk Description of degree of importance
1.0 The adjacent indexes have the same importance
1.2 Index xk-1Ratio xkOf slight importance
1.4 Index xk-1Ratio xkOf obvious importance
1.6 Index xk-1Ratio xkOf strong importance
1.8 Index xk-1Ratio xkOf extreme importance
3) Calculating the weight coefficient of each index
According to the given rkThe weight of the m-th index is calculated, see equations (1, 2).
Figure BDA0003224693650000061
ωk-1＝rkωk(k＝m,m-1,···,3,2) (2)
4) Group assignment calculation weight coefficients
And (4) sorting the indexes, giving important coefficients of adjacent indexes, and calculating and synthesizing the indexes into a final group evaluation subjective weight coefficient, which is shown in the formulas (3 and 4).
Figure BDA0003224693650000062
Figure BDA0003224693650000063
(2) Entropy weight method
1) Establishing a standard evaluation matrix
Establishing a scoring matrix, and normalizing the forward index according to the formula (5) to obtain a standard matrix A ═ alj)m×n(6)
Figure BDA0003224693650000071
Figure BDA0003224693650000072
2) Calculating the characteristic specific gravity p of the estimation indexljAnd an entropy value ej
Figure BDA0003224693650000073
Figure BDA0003224693650000074
3) Calculating objective entropy weight of each index
Figure BDA0003224693650000075
(3) Game theory combined empowerment method
1) Constructing a set of weight vectors
Suppose that the main and objective weights are weighted by adopting q combined weighting method, thereby obtaining q basic weight vector sets wk＝(wk1,wk2,…,wkn) And k is 1,2, …, Q, then the Q basis weight vectors are arbitrarily linearly combined as:
Figure BDA0003224693650000076
2) solving optimal combining weights
To linear combination coefficient akIs optimized to makewAnd each wkThe dispersion of (2) is minimized, as shown in formula (10).
Figure BDA0003224693650000077
The solving equation corresponding to the above formula is:
Figure BDA0003224693650000081
normalizing the obtained linear optimization weight to obtain a final combination weight:
Figure BDA0003224693650000082
3.2 two-dimensional cloud model
(1) Risk clouds
And (4) according to a risk evaluation principle, scoring the occurrence probability and the loss consequence of the risk factor index, and then calculating the digital characteristics of the risk cloud to obtain a primary risk cloud. The specific formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003224693650000083
in the formula: x is the number ofk-score value
Figure BDA0003224693650000084
Figure BDA0003224693650000085
Figure BDA0003224693650000086
In the formula: s2-variance of the samples
(2) Standard cloud
Grading I-IV into [ 0-10 ] according to risk grading in the established deepwater large-diameter bored pile risk evaluation criterion]Wherein the jth sub-interval can be represented as sj min,sj max]The specific division standard of the risk classification cloud digital characteristic indexes is shown in table 2.
TABLE 2 Risk grading cloud digital characterization index
Figure BDA0003224693650000087
Figure BDA0003224693650000091
The numerical characteristic calculation formula of the standard cloud is as follows:
Figure BDA0003224693650000092
Figure BDA0003224693650000093
Figure BDA0003224693650000094
(3) integrated risk cloud
And (4) converging the primary risk clouds of the risk factor indexes into a risk cloud matrix, combining the risk cloud matrix and the weight matrix obtained according to a weight construction method, and operating to obtain a secondary risk cloud. The specific operation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003224693650000095
step 4, judging the comprehensive grade of the construction risk and major risk accidents
And (3) performing comprehensive operation on a risk estimation index system by using a two-dimensional cloud model to obtain index risk cloud digital characteristics at all levels, inputting the index risk cloud digital characteristics into a forward two-dimensional cloud generator to output a risk cloud picture, wherein a secondary risk cloud picture is a comprehensive risk level display of each construction accident and is used for judging major risk accidents, and the comprehensive risk cloud picture displays a comprehensive construction risk level of the whole scheme of the deepwater large-diameter bored pile. According to the cloud picture, the similarity is possibly shown, the risk level cannot be judged rapidly and accurately, and then the risk level is confirmed by adopting two-dimensional cloud similarity, wherein the specific formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0003224693650000096
in this example, the engineering overview: at a certain sea-crossing bridge pier position, the height of the current sharp waves and the water depth reach 60m, the foundation needs to resist larger horizontal force, a scheme of 18 drilled piles with the diameter of 6.3m is adopted, a steel casing with the diameter of 6.8m is arranged at the pile top, the pile length is 94m, the plane size of a bearing platform is 68m multiplied by 46.4m, the thickness is 12m, and the figure 1a, the figure 1b and the figure 1c are shown.
And step 1, carrying out construction risk identification. In the construction stage of the steel casing, a special equipment MHU-2400S hydraulic hammer is adopted for impact driving, wherein the buckling deformation accident of the casing is easily caused by the output energy of hammering, the wall thickness of the casing and the initial defect ovality. The surface bedrock at the pier position is broken and has a certain inclination degree, the weathering degree of the deep bedrock is not high, the uniaxial compressive strength of weakly weathered granite reaches 60MPa, the rock-entering depth of the steel casing is small, the sea water level changes frequently, and after the pile diameter and the pile length are increased, the pore-forming resistance is exponentially increased, so that the rated torque of a pore-forming machine is increased, the working condition of a drilling tool is worsened, and slurry leakage is easy to occur in the pore-forming construction stage; inclined holes and collapsed holes; and (5) hanging and burying the drill. In the pile forming stage, underwater concrete of the large-diameter pile foundation is poured, wherein the total pouring amount, the pipe diameter of a used guide pipe and other related parameters need to be paid attention, and the total pouring time possibly exceeds the initial setting time of the concrete, so that pipe clamping and pipe blocking accidents are caused; the depth of pouring of the deep-water large-diameter pile foundation is increased, and the thickness of sediment is increased due to the fact that hole cleaning is increasingly difficult, wherein the hanging height, the pipe diameter and the embedding depth of the guide pipe are unreasonable, so that the pouring concrete is easy to clamp the mud, the bonding with the pile side is affected, the concrete strength is reduced, and the concrete pouring defects of the pile bottom, the pile side and the pile body occur.
And 2, establishing a risk assessment index system. According to the deepwater large-diameter pile foundation construction risk identification of a certain cross-sea bridge and the hierarchical construction thought of a risk assessment index system, the risk assessment index system is established as shown in table 3.
TABLE 3 deepwater major diameter bored pile construction risk index system
Figure BDA0003224693650000101
Figure BDA0003224693650000111
Figure BDA0003224693650000121
And 3, applying a combined weighted two-dimensional cloud model evaluation method. The risk evaluation quantitatively scores the risk probability and the loss grade of the indexes, and the grades and the scores of the indexes are summarized in a table 4 and a table 5. According to the determination method of the risk indexes, the risk index weights of all levels of indexes are obtained through subjective and objective weight assignment and game theory combination weighting, and are summarized in a table 6. And performing comprehensive operation on the risk assessment index system by using a two-dimensional cloud model to obtain the risk cloud digital characteristics of each level of indexes, wherein the risk cloud digital characteristics comprise a first-level risk cloud, a second-level risk cloud and a final comprehensive risk cloud, and the risk cloud digital characteristics of each level of indexes are summarized in a table 7.
TABLE 4 Risk estimation index probability level score
Figure BDA0003224693650000122
Figure BDA0003224693650000131
TABLE 5 Risk estimation indices loss rating score
Figure BDA0003224693650000132
Figure BDA0003224693650000141
TABLE 6 Risk estimation index weights at various levels
Figure BDA0003224693650000142
Figure BDA0003224693650000151
TABLE 7 Risk cloud digital feature summarization for indexes at various levels
Figure BDA0003224693650000152
Figure BDA0003224693650000161
Figure BDA0003224693650000171
And 4, judging the comprehensive grade of the construction risk and major risk accidents.
(1) Comprehensive construction risk level of 6.3m deep-water large-diameter bored pile
And (3) comparing the obtained comprehensive risk cloud with a standard cloud as shown in a construction risk comprehensive grade cloud picture 2, finding that the comprehensive risk cloud is between a risk grade IV and a risk grade III standard cloud, but is close to the risk grade III standard cloud, and determining that the construction risk comprehensive grade of the large-diameter bored pile in the deep water of 6.3m is grade III through similarity calculation and confirmation. According to the comprehensive risk cloud digital characteristics, the comprehensive construction risk probability grade of the scheme is III grade, and the comprehensive construction risk loss grade is IV grade. According to the management strategy of various risk grades in the risk evaluation criterion, high attention is paid, and strict risk control measures are taken for the construction of the deep water large-diameter bored pile with the depth of 6.3 m.
(2) General risk accident and major risk accident
After the comprehensive risk level of the basic scheme is determined to be level III, corresponding risk prevention and control measures are taken, and then the comprehensive risk level of various risk accidents needs to be determined. According to the comprehensive grade cloud chart 3 of various risk accidents and the similarity formula (25), the deformation of the steel casing is confirmed; defective perfusion quality; inclined holes and collapsed holes; the construction accidents of drill dropping and drill burying are grade III risk synthesis, and the construction accidents leak slurry; and pipe clamping and pipe blocking construction accidents are II-level risk synthesis. When the construction risk comprehensive level reaches or exceeds the risk comprehensive level III, a major risk accident is considered, and a general risk accident is below the risk comprehensive level III, the construction accident of the risk comprehensive level III is analyzed to be the major risk accident, more strict and targeted risk prevention and control measures need to be taken, and relative construction monitoring measures should be taken for the general risk accident.
The previous description of the disclosed embodiments is provided to enable any person skilled in the art to make or use the present invention. Various modifications to these embodiments will be readily apparent to those skilled in the art, and the generic principles defined herein may be applied to other embodiments without departing from the spirit or scope of the invention. Thus, the present invention is not intended to be limited to the embodiments shown herein but is to be accorded the widest scope consistent with the principles and novel features disclosed herein.

Claims (6)

1. A deepwater diameter cast-in-situ bored pile construction risk assessment method based on a two-dimensional cloud model is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring construction risk data factors of the deepwater large-diameter bored pile;
establishing a hierarchical risk assessment index system;
on the basis of a risk assessment index system, a combined weighted two-dimensional cloud model assessment method is applied to obtain the digital features of risk clouds at all levels;
inputting the digital characteristics of the risk cloud into a forward two-dimensional cloud generator to output a risk cloud picture, and further confirming the risk level by adopting the two-dimensional cloud similarity.
2. The two-dimensional cloud model-based deepwater diameter bored pile construction risk assessment method according to claim 1, characterized by comprising the steps of: obtaining risk probability and loss grade according to a risk evaluation criterion, and giving weight to the risk probability and the loss grade by adopting game theory combination weighting; and performing comprehensive operation on the risk assessment index system by using a two-dimensional cloud model.
3. The two-dimensional cloud model-based deepwater diameter bored pile construction risk assessment method according to claim 2, wherein the game theory combined weighting comprises a G1-order relation method, an entropy weight method and a game theory combined weighting method;
wherein, G1 order relation method: determining the important ranking of each risk index, determining the adjacent importance of each risk index, calculating the weight coefficient of each risk index, and calculating the comprehensive weight coefficient according to the important ranking of each risk index, the adjacent importance of each risk index and the weight coefficient of each risk index;
entropy weight method: establishing a standard evaluation matrix, and calculating the characteristic proportion p of the estimation indexljAnd an entropy value ejCalculating objective entropy weight of each index;
the game theory combination weighting method comprises the following steps: and constructing a weight vector set and solving the optimal combination weight.
4. The deep water diameter bored pile construction risk assessment method based on the two-dimensional cloud model according to claim 2, characterized in that the two-dimensional cloud model is obtained as follows:
scoring the occurrence probability and the loss consequence of the risk factor index, and calculating the digital characteristics of the risk cloud to obtain a primary risk cloud;
and (4) converging the primary risk clouds of the risk factor indexes into a risk cloud matrix, and obtaining a two-dimensional cloud model according to the weight obtained by the weight construction method.
5. The deep water diameter bored pile construction risk assessment method based on the two-dimensional cloud model according to claim 2 or 4, wherein the two-dimensional cloud model is as follows:
Figure FDA0003224693640000021
in the formula, ExnFor sample expectation, ωnAnd Ex ', En ' and He ' are expected values, entropies and super entropies of the two-dimensional cloud model.
6. The deep water diameter bored pile construction risk assessment method based on the two-dimensional cloud model according to claim 1, characterized in that the two-dimensional cloud similarity formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0003224693640000022
Figure FDA0003224693640000024
and Ex are the consequence level expected values of the standard risk cloud and the actual risk cloud respectively;
Figure FDA0003224693640000023
and Ex' are probability level expectation values of the standard risk cloud and the actual risk cloud, respectively.
CN202110968216.7A 2021-08-23 2021-08-23 Deepwater diameter cast-in-situ bored pile construction risk assessment method based on two-dimensional cloud model Pending CN113554351A (en)

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CN116523183A (en) * 2023-07-03 2023-08-01 中南大学 Comprehensive evaluation method for safety and ecological restoration of high-steep side slope of abandoned mine
CN116523183B (en) * 2023-07-03 2023-10-20 中南大学 Comprehensive evaluation method for safety and ecological restoration of high-steep side slope of abandoned mine

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