CN113469525A - Forest grassland fire weather grade evaluation method based on dominant factor evaluation - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for evaluating the weather grade of forest grassland fire insurance based on dominant factor evaluation, which is characterized in that precipitation and wind speed are taken as dominant factors, then temperature and humidity are fused into a comprehensive index temperature and humidity which is taken as a basic factor, finally, the moisture content of surface dead combustible materials on the forest grassland is taken as a qualitative grade to carry out comprehensive evaluation, and the evaluation is divided into 5 grades. The method not only considers the contribution of single factors such as atmospheric temperature, atmospheric humidity, rainfall, wind speed and surface dead combustible water content to the fire danger level of the forest and grassland, but also considers the mutual influence of 'between every two' and 'between multiple factors' and the interactive contribution to the fire danger level of the forest and grassland; and constructing a new index scoring standard, giving score values of all indexes in different seasons, giving a calculation formula of forest grassland fire hazard weather index values (HTZ), and unifying the calculation result with the current standard.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of resources and environment, and relates to a technology and a method for protecting forest and grassland resources and environment. More particularly, the invention relates to a method for evaluating the weather grade of forest grassland fire insurance based on dominant factor evaluation.
Background
The forest grassland fire risk weather grade is mainly characterized in that the influence of the change of weather and meteorological elements in a short period on the inflammability of forest and grassland combustibles is mainly considered, and the grade of fire risk is divided according to the change, and is called as the fire risk weather grade.
"national forest fire weather grade" (LY/T1172-95) is formulated by the ministry of Wangxiangxiang et al of forest protection research institute of Heilongjiang, and the national forest industry standard implemented by the former Ministry of forestry 6 and 22 in 1995 and 12 and 1 in 1995 is still used up to now.
In the standard, the forest fire weather rating is determined by a forest fire weather index (HTZ), which is calculated as:
HTZ＝A+B+C+D-E
in the formula: HTZ is a forest fire weather index value; a is the highest air temperature index value; b is a minimum relative humidity index value; c is a continuous no-rain index value; d is the maximum wind index value; e is a phenological season index value; the tables 1 to 6 are looked up respectively.
TABLE 1 forest fire weather index A value of highest air temperature
TABLE 2 forest fire weather index B value of minimum relative humidity
TABLE 3 forest fire weather index C value of days without rainfall and successive days without rainfall thereafter
Note: calculating the precipitation amount of less than 0.3 mm; when the C value is more than 30, the C value is increased by 5 every 1 day, and when the C value is more than 50, the C value is still calculated by 50.
TABLE 4 forest fire index D value of maximum wind power level per day in forest fire prevention period
TABLE 5 correction index E values for the seasonal influence of biotic and abiotic substances in the forest fire prevention period
TABLE 6 national forest fire weather rating Standard
It can be seen that the determination of the index value (HTZ) of the forest fire risk weather grade is actually a simple addition of score values of A, B, C, D, E factors, and mutual influence among the factors is not considered, so that the calculated fire risk weather grade has a great deviation from the actual value, and the obtained result may mislead the fire prevention work of the forest grassland, so that the small fire which can be prevented originally becomes a disaster. For example, spring is a forest and grassland fire protection period around the country, that is, the weather rating of the forest and grassland fire insurance in spring is relatively high nationwide. However, the air temperature in spring is generally low, the "a value" in most areas of the country is a value of "0, 4, 6", and the area that can be divided into "12" is few, obviously, the result calculated according to "HTZ ═ a + B + C + D-E" will often fall into the first level (no danger) and the second level (low danger), so the wrong result appears, mainly the contribution of the wind in spring is far greater than the "D value" given in table 4, that is, the so-called "windy and no-wet firewood"! For another example, after rainfall or snowfall, forest-grassland fires hardly occur, and the forest-grassland fire risk weather is mostly of one-level (no risk) and two-level (low risk), but the result calculated by "HTZ ═ a + B + C + D-E" may fall into three-level (moderate risk) or even four-level (high risk). Therefore, it is necessary and urgent to construct a forest grassland fire weather grade assessment method based on dominant factor assessment.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects of the prior art, the invention aims to provide a method for evaluating the forest grassland fire disaster weather grade based on dominant factor evaluation, the invention constructs an evaluation method for evaluating the forest grassland fire disaster weather grade by using 'the dominant factor' to influence 'a basic factor' and 'the basic factor' to determine the water content of the surface dead combustible of the forest grassland and further evaluating the forest grassland fire disaster weather grade, and a specific flow chart can be shown in figure 1.
The method for evaluating the weather grade of the forest grassland fire hazard based on the dominant factor evaluation comprises the steps of taking precipitation and wind speed as the dominant factors, fusing temperature and humidity into a comprehensive index temperature and humidity as basic factors, finally, taking the moisture content of the surface dead combustible of the forest grassland as a qualitative grade to carry out comprehensive evaluation, and dividing evaluation results into 5 grades which are respectively a first grade, a second grade, a third grade, a fourth grade and a fifth grade.
The improvement is that the grade of the forest grassland fire weather is determined by a forest grassland fire weather index value (HTZ), and a calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula, HTZ is a weather index value of the fire disaster in the forest and grassland;
a is the score of the number of days without precipitation and the number of consecutive days without precipitation after precipitation (Table 8);
Aicontribution value for precipitation;
b is the wind speed score value (table 9);
WSitemperature and humidity scores (table 10);
Higrading values are obtained for the water content grades of the dead combustible on the surface of the forest grassland (Table 11);
when the HTZ is less than or equal to 25, the fire disaster weather grade of the forest and grassland is first grade;
when the HTZ is 26-50, the forest grassland fire disaster weather grade is second grade;
when the HTZ is 51-72, the forest grassland fire disaster weather grade is three-grade;
when the HTZ is 73-90, the forest grassland fire disaster weather grade is four;
when the HTZ is more than or equal to 91, the weather grade of the forest grassland fire danger is five grade.
The improvement is that when precipitation exists and the precipitation amount is more than or equal to 5mm, the precipitation contribution value is marked as AiWhen no precipitation exists or the precipitation is less than 5mm, the precipitation contribution value is marked as Ai＝1。
As an improvement, the first level is no danger, no combustion and no spreading; the second level is low-degree danger, difficult to burn and difficult to spread; the third level is moderate danger, can burn, can spread; the fourth stage is highly dangerous, easy to burn and easy to spread; the fifth grade is extremely dangerous, extremely easy to burn and extremely easy to spread.
As a refinement, B is a wind speed score value, where wind speed is the wind speed at 10m from the bottom surface.
As a refinement, the HiAre of qualitative grade, respectively very low H1Low H2Medium H3High H4Very high H5。
As an improvement, the WSiIn qualitative scale, respectively, WS of low temperature and low humidity1Low temperature and moderate humidity WS2Low temperature and high humidity WS3Moderate temperature and low humidity WS4Moderate temperature and humidity WS5Moderate temperature and high humidity WS6High temperature and low humidity WS7High temperature and moderate humidity WS8High temperature and high humidity WS9。
Has the advantages that:
compared with the prior art, the method for evaluating the weather grade of the forest grassland fire disaster based on the dominant factor evaluation has the following advantages:
1. the method not only considers the contribution of single factors such as atmospheric temperature, atmospheric humidity, rainfall, wind speed and the water content of surface dead combustible to the fire danger level of the forest and grassland, but also considers the mutual influence between every two factors and between multiple factors and the interactive contribution to the fire danger level of the forest and grassland; establishing a new index scoring standard, giving score values of indexes in different seasons, giving a calculation formula of a forest grassland fire disaster weather index value (HTZ), unifying a calculation result with the existing standard, accurately determining the grade of the forest grassland fire disaster weather, giving early warning of the forest grassland fire disaster, preventing early, ensuring that no major forest fire disaster occurs locally, achieving 'fire disaster does not occur', and being beneficial to protecting the safety of ecological environment so as to prevent the forest grassland resource and the life and property of people from being damaged and lost;
2. the invention solves the problem of poor usability of the existing standard, highlights the leading factor of forest and grassland fire hazards, for example, after precipitation, the formula is provided by the invention, the fire hazards of 'moderate' and above cannot appear, and the action of the leading factor 'wind' is reflected in the formula;
3. by means of portable instruments and equipment, the more accurate the measurement of the wind speed and the atmospheric temperature and humidity during observation is, the closer the forest and grassland fire disaster weather grade calculated by using a formula is to the reality, and the accurate forest and grassland fire disaster weather grade can be obtained by using the formula through observation and experience accumulation;
4. the method provided by the invention is not limited by territory, is not limited by other factors, and can be used in any area and at any time.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for evaluating weather levels of forest and grassland fires according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of the influence mechanism of the leading factors, the basic factors and the water content of the forest grassland surface combustible.
Detailed Description
Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used herein have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this invention belongs. Although only preferred methods and materials are described herein, any methods and materials similar or equivalent to those described herein can be used in the practice or testing of the present invention. All documents mentioned in this specification are incorporated by reference herein for the purpose of disclosing and describing the methods and/or materials associated with the documents. In case of conflict with any incorporated document, the present specification will control.
The 'leading factor' selects precipitation and wind speed (quantitative indexes, respectively represented by 'A' and 'B'), and the influence modes of the 'leading factor' and the 'B' are 'independent' and 'common'; the 'basic factor' fuses the temperature and the humidity into a comprehensive index (quantitatively converted into qualitative grade: WS with low temperature and low humidity) of the temperature and the humidity (represented by 'WS')1Low temperature and moderate humidity WS2Low temperature and high humidity WS3Moderate temperature and low humidity WS4Moderate temperature and humidity WS5Moderate temperature and high humidity WS6High temperature and low humidity WS7High temperature and moderate humidity WS8High temperature and high humidity WS9) (ii) a The water content (represented by 'H') of the surface dead combustible of the forest grassland is qualitatively graded (very low H)1Low H2Medium H3High H4Very high H5) (ii) a See figure 2 for details.
To interface the present invention with the current standards, the standards that give the weather rating of the forest grassland fire hazard of the present invention are shown in table 7.
TABLE 7 weather rating Standard for forest and grassland fire insurance of the whole country
The forest grassland fire disaster weather grade is determined by a forest grassland fire disaster weather index value (HTZ), and the calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula: HTZ is a weather index value of the fire disaster in the forest and grassland;
a is the score of the number of days without precipitation and the number of consecutive days without precipitation after precipitation (Table 8);
Aiwhen the precipitation is present and the precipitation amount is more than or equal to 5mm, the contribution value is marked as AiWhen no precipitation or precipitation is less than 5mm, it is marked as Ai＝1；
B is the wind speed score value (table 9);
WSitemperature and humidity scores (table 10);
Hiand (4) grading values of the water content of the dead combustible on the surface of the forest grassland (Table 11).
TABLE 8 score of days without precipitation and subsequent days without precipitation
Note: after the A value reaches 15, no precipitation exists every 1 day, and the A value is increased by 5.
TABLE 9 score for maximum wind rating per day
TABLE 10 score of temperature and humidity
TABLE 11 forest grassland surface dead combustible water content grade score values
From the above, the method not only considers the contribution of single factors such as atmospheric temperature, atmospheric humidity, rainfall, wind speed and the moisture content of surface dead combustible to the fire level of the forest and grassland, but also considers the mutual influence of 'between every two' and 'between multiple factors' and the interactive contribution to the fire level of the forest and grassland; the method comprises the steps of establishing a new index scoring standard, giving score values of indexes in different seasons, giving a calculation formula of a forest grassland fire disaster weather index value (HTZ), unifying a calculation result with the existing standard, accurately determining the grade of the forest grassland fire disaster weather, giving early warning of the forest grassland fire disaster, preventing early, ensuring that no serious forest fire occurs locally, achieving 'fire disaster does not occur', and being beneficial to protecting the safety of ecological environment so that forest grassland resources and life and property of people are not damaged and lost.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any simple modifications or equivalent substitutions of the technical solutions that can be obviously obtained by those skilled in the art within the technical scope of the present invention are within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. The method for evaluating the weather grade of the forest grassland fire hazard based on the dominant factor evaluation is characterized in that rainfall and wind speed are used as the dominant factor, temperature and humidity are fused into a comprehensive index temperature and humidity which is used as a basic factor, finally, the moisture content of the surface dead combustible of the forest grassland is used as a qualitative grade to carry out comprehensive evaluation, and evaluation results are divided into 5 grades which are respectively a first grade, a second grade, a third grade, a fourth grade and a fifth grade.
2. The method for assessing the weather level of the forest grassland fire disaster based on the dominant factor assessment as claimed in claim 1, wherein the weather level of the forest grassland fire disaster is determined by a forest grassland fire disaster weather index value, and a calculation formula is as follows:
in the formula, HTZ is a weather index value of the fire disaster in the forest and grassland;
a is the score of the number of days without precipitation and the number of consecutive days without precipitation;
Aicontribution value for precipitation;
b is the wind speed score value;
WSithe values of the temperature and humidity are obtained;
Hiobtaining a value for the grade of the water content of the dead combustible on the surface of the forest grassland;
when the HTZ is less than or equal to 25, the fire disaster weather grade of the forest and grassland is first grade;
when the HTZ is 26-50, the forest grassland fire disaster weather grade is second grade;
when the HTZ is 51-72, the forest grassland fire disaster weather grade is three-grade;
when the HTZ is 73-90, the forest grassland fire disaster weather grade is four;
when the HTZ is more than or equal to 91, the weather grade of the forest grassland fire danger is five grade.
3. The method as claimed in claim 2, wherein when there is precipitation and the precipitation amount is greater than or equal to 5mm, the precipitation contribution value is recorded as AiWhen no precipitation exists or the precipitation is less than 5mm, the precipitation contribution value is marked as Ai＝1。
4. The method for evaluating the weather rating of the forest grassland fire hazard based on the dominant factor evaluation as claimed in claim 2, wherein the first level is no danger, no combustion and no spreading; the second level is low-degree danger, difficult to burn and difficult to spread; the third level is moderate danger, can burn, can spread; the fourth stage is highly dangerous, easy to burn and easy to spread; the fifth grade is extremely dangerous, extremely easy to burn and extremely easy to spread.
5. The method for evaluating the weather rating of the forest grassland fire disaster based on the dominant factor evaluation as claimed in claim 2, wherein B is a wind speed score value, wherein the wind speed is the wind speed at a distance of 10m from the bottom surface.
6. The forest grassland fire weather rating assessment method based on leading factor assessment as claimed in claim 2, wherein the H isiAre of qualitative grade, respectively very low H1Low H2Medium H3High H4Very high H5。
7. The forest grassland fire weather rating assessment method based on leading factor assessment as claimed in claim 2, wherein the WS isiIn qualitative scale, respectively, WS of low temperature and low humidity1Low temperature and moderate humidity WS2Low temperature and high humidity WS3Moderate temperature and low humidity WS4Moderate temperature and humidity WS5Moderate temperature and high humidity WS6High temperature and low humidity WS7High temperature and moderate humidity WS8High temperature and high humidity WS9。
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