CN113435677A - Power grid operation risk active analysis system and method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a power grid operation risk active analysis system, which comprises: the device comprises an acquisition module, a selection input module, an analysis module and an evaluation module; the acquisition module is used for determining a plurality of uncertain factor risks of the operation of the power grid based on the internal and external information of the power grid; a selection input module for selecting one or several of the uncertainty factor risks as input information; the analysis module is used for carrying out probability load flow calculation on the input information selected by the selection input module and determining related section information and risk analysis result information based on the probability load flow calculation result and user requirements; the evaluation module is used for carrying out operation risk evaluation on the related section information and the risk analysis result information obtained by the analysis module based on a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology and carrying out risk early warning quantitative grading based on an evaluation result; the functions of power grid safety risk analysis and early warning quantitative grading are realized, and the power grid safety risk level is accurately quantized.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of electric power systems and automation thereof, and relates to a power grid operation risk active analysis system and method.
Background
In order to realize accident anticipation, prejudgment and early warning of a new generation of dispatching control system and improve the risk prevention and control capacity of a power grid in an operation environment with uncertainty, external environment information and equipment operation information need to be fused, the occurrence probability and severity of a fault are analyzed, intelligent fault screening is realized, accident anticipation is accurately developed, and the accident anticipation and prejudgment capacity of a large power grid dispatching control system is improved. The influence of external power grid environmental factors, regulation and control operations and fault disturbance on the local power grid operation situation is analyzed, a mode combining deterministic analysis and uncertainty analysis is adopted, the power grid operation potential risk and the future operation trend risk are given, and the overall operation risk situation analysis perception capability of all levels of scheduling is improved. Establishing a scientific, comprehensive, intelligent, layered and efficient power grid risk assessment system, integrating multidimensional information (equipment, external environment, operation information and the like) of power grid operation, carrying out integrated risk assessment on a main network in the current and future periods, and assessing possible out-of-limit risks such as section tidal current, voltage and frequency or loss risks such as unit and load.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects of increased risk of uncertainty of the operation of the existing power grid, and weak accident prediction and prejudgment and risk prevention and control capabilities of a control system, the invention provides an active analysis system for the operation risk of the power grid, which specifically comprises the following steps: the device comprises an acquisition module, a selection input module, an analysis module and an evaluation module;
the acquisition module is used for determining a plurality of uncertain factor risks of the operation of the power grid based on the internal and external information of the power grid;
the selection input module is used for selecting one or more of the uncertainty factor risks as input information;
the analysis module is used for carrying out probability load flow calculation on the input information selected by the selection input module and determining related section information and risk analysis result information based on the probability load flow calculation result and user requirements;
and the evaluation module is used for carrying out operation risk evaluation on the related section information and the risk analysis result information obtained by the analysis module based on a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology and carrying out risk early warning quantitative grading based on an evaluation result.
Preferably, the uncertainty factor risk comprises: and inputting the output, load fluctuation information, maintenance plan data and fault risk source data of the new energy unit.
Preferably, the analysis module includes: a model building submodule and an analysis submodule;
the model construction submodule is used for respectively constructing an uncertainty probability model and a probability load flow calculation link probability model of a relevant section based on user requirements, uncertainty of various new energy output units, uncertainty of load fluctuation, uncertainty of a maintenance plan, uncertainty factors of fault risk and a calculation method;
the analysis submodule selects a typical size mode and a large probability mode based on the uncertainty probability model of the relevant section constructed by the model construction submodule and the probability distribution of the power grid load flow obtained by the probability model of the probability load flow calculation link, and calls a network analysis calculation program based on the probability distribution and the user requirement to perform short circuit analysis, fault analysis and static safety analysis on the input information selected by the selection input module.
Preferably, the evaluation module includes: an evaluation result submodule and a positioning grading submodule;
the evaluation result submodule is used for carrying out load flow calculation analysis, short circuit analysis, fault analysis and static safety analysis on the basis of the input information selected by the selection input module, and carrying out operation risk evaluation to obtain an evaluation result;
the positioning grading submodule is used for carrying out risk positioning and quantitative evaluation on the evaluation result obtained by the evaluation result submodule based on a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology to obtain a power grid risk positioning result, a correlation area risk situation analysis result and a safety early warning quantitative grading result;
wherein the operational risk assessment comprises: short circuit current level assessment, loss of load risk assessment, voltage risk assessment, multi-feed effective short circuit ratio, frequency risk assessment, "N-1" pass rate assessment, network structure assessment, and load balance assessment.
Preferably, the positioning and grading submodule includes: a positioning unit and a grading unit;
the positioning unit is used for performing transfer coefficient calculation, fault influence domain generation and source network load association interaction analysis based on the evaluation result obtained by the evaluation result submodule to obtain a risk positioning result and an associated region risk situation analysis result;
and the grading unit is used for carrying out risk grading, construction of a matrix for judging risk factors and quantitative grading calculation on the basis of the evaluation result obtained by the evaluation result submodule to obtain a safety early warning quantitative grading result.
Preferably, the information inside and outside the power grid includes: external environment information, power grid operation data information, equipment regulation and control operation information and equipment fault disturbance information.
Based on the same conception, the invention provides a power grid operation risk active analysis method, which comprises the following steps:
the analysis module selects one or more of the uncertainty factor risks of the power grid operation from the acquisition module based on the internal and external information of the power grid for the selection input module to carry out probability load flow calculation, and provides related section information and risk analysis result information based on the result of the probability load flow calculation and the user requirements;
and the related section information and the risk analysis result information obtained by the analysis module are evaluated by the evaluation module according to the power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology to obtain an evaluation result, and the evaluation result is subjected to risk early warning quantitative grading.
Preferably, the uncertainty factor risk comprises: and inputting the output, load fluctuation information, maintenance plan data and fault risk source data of the new energy unit.
Preferably, the analysis module selects one or more of the uncertainty factor risks of the power grid operation acquired by the selection input module based on the internal and external information of the power grid from the acquisition module to perform probabilistic power flow calculation, and provides relevant section information and risk analysis result information based on the result of the probabilistic power flow calculation and the user requirement, and the method includes:
respectively constructing an uncertainty probability model and a probability load flow calculation link probability model of related sections based on user requirements, uncertainty of various new energy output units, uncertainty of load fluctuation, uncertainty of a maintenance plan, uncertainty factors of fault risk and a calculation method;
and selecting a typical size mode and a general probability mode based on the uncertainty probability model of the relevant section constructed by the model construction submodule and the probability distribution of the power grid load flow obtained by the probability model of the probability load flow calculation link, and calling a network analysis calculation program based on the probability distribution and the user requirement to perform short circuit analysis, fault analysis and static safety analysis on the input information selected by the selection input module.
Preferably, the related section information and risk analysis result information obtained by the analysis module are evaluated by an evaluation module according to a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology to obtain an evaluation result, and the evaluation result is subjected to risk early warning quantitative grading, including:
the evaluation result sub-module carries out operation risk evaluation based on load flow calculation analysis, short circuit analysis, fault analysis and static safety analysis of the input information selected by the selection input module to obtain an evaluation result;
the evaluation result positioning grading submodule obtained by the evaluation result submodule carries out risk positioning and quantitative evaluation on the basis of a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology to obtain a power grid risk positioning result, a relevant area risk situation analysis result and a safety early warning quantitative grading result;
wherein the operational risk assessment comprises: short circuit current level assessment, loss of load risk assessment, voltage risk assessment, multi-feed effective short circuit ratio, frequency risk assessment, "N-1" pass rate assessment, network structure assessment, and load balance assessment.
Preferably, the evaluation result positioning and grading submodule obtained by the evaluation result submodule performs risk positioning and quantitative evaluation based on a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology to obtain a power grid risk positioning result, a relevant area risk situation analysis result and a safety early warning quantitative grading result, and includes:
the positioning unit carries out transfer coefficient calculation, fault influence domain generation and source network load association interaction analysis based on the evaluation result obtained by the evaluation result submodule to obtain a risk positioning result and an associated region risk situation analysis result;
and the grading unit carries out risk grading, construction of a matrix for judging risk factors and quantitative grading calculation based on the evaluation result obtained by the evaluation result submodule to obtain a safety early warning quantitative grading result.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
1. the invention provides a power grid operation risk active analysis system, which comprises: the device comprises an acquisition module, a selection input module, an analysis module and an evaluation module; the acquisition module is used for determining a plurality of uncertain factor risks of the operation of the power grid based on the internal and external information of the power grid; the selection input module is used for selecting one or more of the uncertainty factor risks as input information; the analysis module is used for carrying out probability load flow calculation on the input information selected by the selection input module and determining related section information and risk analysis result information based on the probability load flow calculation result and user requirements; the evaluation module is used for carrying out operation risk evaluation on the related section information and the risk analysis result information obtained by the analysis module based on a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology and carrying out risk early warning quantitative grading based on an evaluation result; the online sensing function of the power grid operation risk considering the uncertain factors of the power grid operation such as new energy power generation, load fluctuation, equipment failure, operation mode and the like is realized, the functions of power grid safety risk analysis and early warning quantitative grading are realized, and the power grid safety risk level is accurately quantized;
2. a power grid operation risk active analysis system and a power grid operation risk active analysis method are used for actively analyzing risks possibly causing cascading faults, carrying out early warning, achieving fault blocking and improving power grid dispatching risk prevention and control capacity.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a system structural diagram of an active power grid operation risk analysis system provided in the present invention;
fig. 2 is a block diagram of a general functional block diagram of active analysis of power grid operational risk according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a flow chart of a power grid operation risk online sensing function considering uncertainty factors according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 4 is a functional flow chart of risk localization and situation analysis of the power grid in consideration of uncertain factors according to an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 5 is a flowchart of a power grid safety early warning quantitative classification function based on a leading factor according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The embodiments of the present invention will be further explained with reference to the drawings.
Example 1:
the invention provides a power grid operation risk active analysis system, which comprises: input data (information) such as an external environment and an equipment running state are fused; the power grid operation risk online sensing technology takes uncertainty factors such as new energy power generation, load fluctuation and operation mode into account; the power grid risk positioning and associated area risk situation analysis technology considering uncertainty factors; a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology based on the dominant risk factors; the analysis result outputs data, and the system structure is shown in fig. 1, which specifically includes:
the acquisition module determines a plurality of uncertain factor risks of the operation of the power grid based on the internal and external information of the power grid;
the selection input module selects one or more of the uncertain factor risks as input information;
the analysis module carries out probability load flow calculation on the input information selected by the selection input module, and determines related section information and risk analysis result information based on the result of the probability load flow calculation and user requirements;
the evaluation module carries out operation risk evaluation on the related section information and the risk analysis result information obtained by the analysis module based on a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology, and carries out risk early warning quantitative grading based on an evaluation result;
the acquisition module determines a plurality of uncertain factor risks of the operation of the power grid based on external information and internal information of the power grid, and specifically comprises the following steps:
the calculation process is that the power grid operation risk online perception function considering uncertainty factors is a function module used for conducting risk online perception in power grid operation risk perception and active analysis software, which is introduced by combining the power grid operation risk active analysis general function module diagram of fig. 2. The power grid operation risk on-line sensing function process is shown in fig. 3, the overall calculation process comprises the steps of obtaining data containing uncertainty factors such as source load side data, system maintenance plan data and fault data sections from the outside, establishing probability models of various uncertainty factors, analyzing and calculating the probability load flow distribution of the system considering the factors, and selectively providing related section information and risk analysis result information according to preset and user requirements. User requirements: the method comprises the following steps of selecting different operation modes by a user, adjusting system loads or unit output at different time periods, dynamically balancing system power flow distribution and the like.
And (3) related section information: and presetting the relevant section information determined by the requirement. According to the requirements of a certain operation mode, a group of load flow calculation result information which accords with conditions such as various section limit values, safety constraints and the like in a certain mode can be obtained.
Risk analysis result information: and presetting a risk analysis result of the relevant section determined by the requirement. The risk analysis result may be, for example, result information obtained by performing static security analysis in a certain manner under the condition that certain system operation constraint conditions, limit values, and the like are satisfied.
The method mainly comprises three links of uncertainty factor selection, risk on-line sensing considering uncertainty factors, operation risk assessment and the like.
The selection input module selects one or more of the plurality of uncertainty factor risks as input information, and specifically comprises:
and in the uncertainty factor selection step, uncertainty factor selection is performed respectively according to the output fluctuation information, the load fluctuation, the maintenance change plan and the fault risk source data of the new energy unit, and a data basis is provided for the construction of a subsequent probability model in a targeted manner.
The analysis module performs probability load flow calculation on the input information selected by the selection input module, and determines related section information and risk analysis result information based on the result of the probability load flow calculation and user requirements, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
in the probability load flow calculation link, natural disasters and equipment running state monitoring information are considered in a probability model building link, the single equipment fault probability is evaluated, meanwhile, probability modeling is carried out according to the uncertainty of various new energy output units and the uncertainty of load fluctuation, corresponding probability distribution is obtained, and probability load flow calculation is carried out by using a probability load flow calculation method to obtain the probability distribution of system load flow. On the basis, an expected fault set based on uncertainty is constructed according to uncertainty of operation modes of the scheduling maintenance plan, the power generation plan, the operation order information and the like of the analysis system, and preparation is made for subsequent risk assessment and online perception. And (3) customizing system uncertainty factors according to requirements by combining with an uncertainty probability model modeling result, and calculating the power flow by combining with a Monte Carlo sampling method on the basis of a corresponding uncertainty model to obtain a probability distribution result of the power flow. In the link, a simplified Monte Carlo sampling calculation method is used, a high-performance calculation method is combined, a multi-thread calculation method is adopted to carry out rapid operation on the probability load flow, the calculation efficiency is improved, the corresponding accuracy is kept, and the probability load flow calculation result is obtained rapidly. And then, selecting a typical size mode and a general probability mode, and calling a network analysis calculation program to calculate so as to provide data preparation for a subsequent operation risk assessment link. Load flow calculation analysis, short circuit analysis, state fault analysis and static analysis.
And the operation risk assessment link considering uncertainty calculates a risk assessment result combined with probability distribution on the basis of the uncertainty probability modeling and probability load flow calculation result, wherein the risk assessment result comprises a probability risk assessment index result of multiple risk assessment indexes such as 'N-1' passage rate assessment, short circuit current level assessment, loss load risk assessment, voltage risk assessment, frequency risk assessment and multi-feed effective short circuit ratio assessment, and the corresponding index type and severity are pushed to a front-end picture for displaying so that a dispatcher can master a risk online sensing result.
The calculation process is that an expected fault set is dynamically generated through fusion of internal and external data of the power grid, an accident expectation and risk positioning function is provided for power grid trend risk pre-judgment and pre-control links, and meanwhile, a corresponding association area risk situation analysis result is obtained through situation analysis. The method comprises the steps of utilizing a fault influence domain analysis method to calculate a transfer coefficient on the basis of an N-1 calculation result, determining a certain fault influence domain expected to be switched on and off according to the transfer coefficient calculation result, further carrying out N-2 expected fault set screening based on the fault influence domain, evaluating equipment fault probability under the conditions of considering natural disasters, equipment running state monitoring information, new energy unit output conditions, load fluctuation and running modes, further generating multiple and mass fault sets, judging risk equipment, and carrying out risk positioning and associated area risk situation analysis, wherein the flow is shown in figure 4.
In the system risk pre-evaluation step, by selecting uncertain risk factors and combining analysis results of corresponding probability load flow calculation, load flow probability distribution and equipment fault probability risk under corresponding uncertainty are obtained, and then transfer coefficient calculation is carried out additionally when N-1 fault on-off scanning is carried out by utilizing a one-by-one expected on-off method, so that the range of a fault influence domain is generated. The method comprises the steps of automatically searching weak links of a power grid by using a section searching method based on network automatic searching, generating and screening expected faults according to searching results, further obtaining possible changes of the operation state of the power grid in a current or future designated period, carrying out risk positioning analysis, rapidly identifying newly-added weak sections of the power grid after the operation mode of the power grid is changed, carrying out online rolling calculation on static safety and stability risks of the power grid, and obtaining risk positioning results and associated area risk situation analysis results.
The evaluation module carries out operation risk evaluation on the related section information and the risk analysis result information obtained by the analysis module based on a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology, and carries out risk early warning quantitative grading based on an evaluation result, and the evaluation module specifically comprises the following steps:
the calculation process is as follows: and carrying out comprehensive quantitative analysis on the evaluation standard from multiple index angles by adopting an analytic hierarchy process based on the risk evaluation result and aiming at different uncertain scenes and comprehensive scenes. Aiming at different quantitative index evaluation results, an evaluation weight matrix, an index selection method, expert experience and other factors are constructed for the target of power grid safety early warning, a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading calculation result is finally formed and displayed on a human-computer interaction interface to form a safety early warning quantitative analysis evaluation result, and a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading function flow based on leading factors is shown in fig. 5.
And a risk grading and score setting link obtains a corresponding risk evaluation result by using expert experience and combining comprehensive calculation of the probability index and the severity index. And a judgment matrix construction link is combined with the analysis of the influence degree of each index on the safety risk, a hierarchical structure model is established, two judgment matrixes are constructed, the consistency of the judgment matrixes is checked, and the judgment matrixes are formed. And finally, combining a quantitative grading calculation link with a vector normalization method to realize non-dimensionalization of the evaluation index, and finally forming a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading result based on the leading factors.
Example 2:
the invention provides a power grid operation risk active analysis method, a serious fault dynamic prediction method fusing information of external environment and the like, a power grid operation risk on-line sensing function for considering power grid operation uncertainty factors such as new energy power generation, load fluctuation, equipment faults, an operation mode and the like is realized, a power grid safety risk analysis and early warning quantitative grading function is realized, and a power grid safety risk level is accurately quantized, and the method comprises the following specific steps:
step 1: the analysis module selects one or more of the uncertainty factor risks of the power grid operation from the acquisition module based on the internal and external information of the power grid for the selection input module to carry out probability load flow calculation, and provides related section information and risk analysis result information based on the result of the probability load flow calculation and the user requirements;
step 2: the related section information and the risk analysis result information obtained by the analysis module are evaluated by an evaluation module according to a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology to obtain an evaluation result, and the evaluation result is subjected to risk early warning quantitative grading;
wherein, the step 1: the analysis module selects one or more of the plurality of uncertainty factor risks of the power grid operation from the acquisition module based on the internal and external information of the power grid for the selection input module to perform probability load flow calculation, and provides related section information and risk analysis result information based on the result of the probability load flow calculation and the user requirements, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
the calculation process comprises the steps of obtaining data containing uncertainty factors such as source load side data, system maintenance plan data and fault data sections from the outside, establishing probability models of various uncertainty factors, analyzing and calculating the probability load flow distribution of the system considering the factors, and selectively providing related section information and risk analysis result information according to preset and user requirements. On the basis of the fine monitoring of the surrounding environment disasters of the power grid transmission equipment, the operation state of the power grid is combined, and serious faults with high probability are evaluated so as to find out the safety risk brought to the power grid by multiple faults in time.
Step 2: the related section information and risk analysis result information obtained by the analysis module are evaluated by the evaluation module according to a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology to obtain an evaluation result, and the evaluation result is subjected to risk early warning quantitative grading, and the method specifically comprises the following steps:
based on the risk assessment result, aiming at different uncertain scenes and comprehensive scenes, an analytic hierarchy process is adopted, comprehensive quantitative analysis is carried out from multi-index angle evaluation standards, the power grid safety early warning quantitative analysis assessment result is formed by displaying the power grid safety early warning quantitative grading calculation result on a human-computer interaction interface, and the power grid safety early warning quantitative grading function flow based on the leading factors is shown in fig. 5.
As will be appreciated by one skilled in the art, embodiments of the present application may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present application may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present application may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.
The present application is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems), and computer program products according to embodiments of the application. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flow diagrams and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.
The present invention is not limited to the above embodiments, and any modifications, equivalent replacements, improvements, etc. made within the spirit and principle of the present invention are included in the scope of the claims of the present invention which are filed as the application.
Claims (11)
1. An active analysis system for grid operation risk, comprising: the device comprises an acquisition module, a selection input module, an analysis module and an evaluation module;
the acquisition module is used for determining a plurality of uncertain factor risks of the operation of the power grid based on the internal and external information of the power grid;
the selection input module is used for selecting one or more of the uncertainty factor risks as input information;
the analysis module is used for carrying out probability load flow calculation on the input information selected by the selection input module and determining related section information and risk analysis result information based on the probability load flow calculation result and user requirements;
and the evaluation module is used for carrying out operation risk evaluation on the related section information and the risk analysis result information obtained by the analysis module based on a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology and carrying out risk early warning quantitative grading based on an evaluation result.
2. The system of claim 1, wherein the uncertainty factor risk comprises: and inputting the output, load fluctuation information, maintenance plan data and fault risk source data of the new energy unit.
3. The system of claim 1, wherein the analysis module comprises: a model building submodule and an analysis submodule;
the model construction submodule is used for respectively constructing an uncertainty probability model and a probability load flow calculation link probability model of a relevant section based on user requirements, uncertainty of various new energy output units, uncertainty of load fluctuation, uncertainty of a maintenance plan, uncertainty factors of fault risk and a calculation method;
the analysis submodule selects a typical size mode and a large probability mode based on the uncertainty probability model of the relevant section constructed by the model construction submodule and the probability distribution of the power grid load flow obtained by the probability model of the probability load flow calculation link, and calls a network analysis calculation program based on the probability distribution and the user requirement to perform short circuit analysis, fault analysis and static safety analysis on the input information selected by the selection input module.
4. The system of claim 1, wherein the evaluation module comprises: an evaluation result submodule and a positioning grading submodule;
the evaluation result submodule is used for carrying out load flow calculation analysis, short circuit analysis, fault analysis and static safety analysis on the basis of the input information selected by the selection input module, and carrying out operation risk evaluation to obtain an evaluation result;
the positioning grading submodule is used for carrying out risk positioning and quantitative evaluation on the evaluation result obtained by the evaluation result submodule based on a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology to obtain a power grid risk positioning result, a correlation area risk situation analysis result and a safety early warning quantitative grading result;
wherein the operational risk assessment comprises: short circuit current level assessment, loss of load risk assessment, voltage risk assessment, multi-feed effective short circuit ratio, frequency risk assessment, "N-1" pass rate assessment, network structure assessment, and load balance assessment.
5. The system of claim 4, wherein the positioning hierarchy sub-module comprises: a positioning unit and a grading unit;
the positioning unit is used for performing transfer coefficient calculation, fault influence domain generation and source network load association interaction analysis based on the evaluation result obtained by the evaluation result submodule to obtain a risk positioning result and an associated region risk situation analysis result;
and the grading unit is used for carrying out risk grading, construction of a matrix for judging risk factors and quantitative grading calculation on the basis of the evaluation result obtained by the evaluation result submodule to obtain a safety early warning quantitative grading result.
6. The system of claim 1, wherein the grid internal and external information comprises: external environment information, power grid operation data information, equipment regulation and control operation information and equipment fault disturbance information.
7. A power grid operation risk active analysis method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
the analysis module selects one or more of the uncertainty factor risks of the power grid operation from the acquisition module based on the internal and external information of the power grid for the selection input module to carry out probability load flow calculation, and provides related section information and risk analysis result information based on the result of the probability load flow calculation and the user requirements;
and the related section information and the risk analysis result information obtained by the analysis module are evaluated by the evaluation module according to the power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology to obtain an evaluation result, and the evaluation result is subjected to risk early warning quantitative grading.
8. The method of claim 7, wherein the uncertainty factor risk comprises: and inputting the output, load fluctuation information, maintenance plan data and fault risk source data of the new energy unit.
9. The method of claim 7, wherein the analysis module performs probabilistic power flow calculation on one or more selected by the selection input module from a plurality of uncertainty factor risks of the operation of the power grid obtained by the obtaining module based on the internal and external information of the power grid, and provides relevant section information and risk analysis result information based on the result of the probabilistic power flow calculation and the user requirement, and the method comprises the following steps:
respectively constructing an uncertainty probability model and a probability load flow calculation link probability model of related sections based on user requirements, uncertainty of various new energy output units, uncertainty of load fluctuation, uncertainty of a maintenance plan, uncertainty factors of fault risk and a calculation method;
and selecting a typical size mode and a general probability mode based on the uncertainty probability model of the relevant section constructed by the model construction submodule and the probability distribution of the power grid load flow obtained by the probability model of the probability load flow calculation link, and calling a network analysis calculation program based on the probability distribution and the user requirement to perform short circuit analysis, fault analysis and static safety analysis on the input information selected by the selection input module.
10. The method of claim 7, wherein the related section information and risk analysis result information obtained by the analysis module are subjected to operation risk assessment by an assessment module according to a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology to obtain an assessment result, and the assessment result is subjected to risk early warning quantitative grading, and the method comprises the following steps:
the evaluation result sub-module carries out operation risk evaluation based on load flow calculation analysis, short circuit analysis, fault analysis and static safety analysis of the input information selected by the selection input module to obtain an evaluation result;
the evaluation result positioning grading submodule obtained by the evaluation result submodule carries out risk positioning and quantitative evaluation on the basis of a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology to obtain a power grid risk positioning result, a relevant area risk situation analysis result and a safety early warning quantitative grading result;
wherein the operational risk assessment comprises: short circuit current level assessment, loss of load risk assessment, voltage risk assessment, multi-feed effective short circuit ratio, frequency risk assessment, "N-1" pass rate assessment, network structure assessment, and load balance assessment.
11. The method of claim 10, wherein the evaluation result positioning and grading submodule of the evaluation result submodule performs risk positioning and quantitative evaluation based on a power grid safety early warning quantitative grading technology to obtain a power grid risk positioning result, an associated area risk situation analysis result and a safety early warning quantitative grading result, and comprises:
the positioning unit carries out transfer coefficient calculation, fault influence domain generation and source network load association interaction analysis based on the evaluation result obtained by the evaluation result submodule to obtain a risk positioning result and an associated region risk situation analysis result;
and the grading unit carries out risk grading, construction of a matrix for judging risk factors and quantitative grading calculation based on the evaluation result obtained by the evaluation result submodule to obtain a safety early warning quantitative grading result.
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN113837625A (en) * | 2021-09-27 | 2021-12-24 | 内蒙古电力(集团)有限责任公司电力调度控制分公司 | Method, device and equipment for quantitatively evaluating risks of cascading failures of power grid |
| CN116136987A (en) * | 2023-02-21 | 2023-05-19 | 北京思维实创科技有限公司 | PSCADA data-based power supply equipment reliability online evaluation method and system |
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Cited By (4)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN113837625A (en) * | 2021-09-27 | 2021-12-24 | 内蒙古电力(集团)有限责任公司电力调度控制分公司 | Method, device and equipment for quantitatively evaluating risks of cascading failures of power grid |
| CN113837625B (en) * | 2021-09-27 | 2024-04-02 | 内蒙古电力(集团)有限责任公司电力调度控制分公司 | Risk quantitative assessment method, device and equipment for grid cascading failure |
| CN116136987A (en) * | 2023-02-21 | 2023-05-19 | 北京思维实创科技有限公司 | PSCADA data-based power supply equipment reliability online evaluation method and system |
| CN116136987B (en) * | 2023-02-21 | 2023-08-15 | 北京思维实创科技有限公司 | PSCADA data-based power supply equipment reliability online evaluation method and system |
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