CN110232490A - A kind of appraisal procedure and system of distribution network engineering investment effect - Google Patents
A kind of appraisal procedure and system of distribution network engineering investment effect Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The present invention relates to the appraisal procedures and system of a kind of distribution network engineering investment effect, based on the otherness between each level cells of distribution network engineering and the distribution network engineering investment effect evaluation index collection pre-established, current power distribution network construction investment achievement evaluation index is determined；The index weights of the evaluation index are determined using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Principal Component Analysis, and the index weights of evaluation index are modified based on distribution network construction scale, distribution network engineering scale of investment and economic development level factor；Based on the index weights of revised evaluation index, the credit comprehensive score of the evaluation index is determined, obtain the evaluation result of distribution network engineering investment effect.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to distribution engineering lean management-control methods, and in particular to a kind of assessment of distribution network engineering investment effect
Method and system.
Background technique
With the variation of the following power distribution network development form, automation and the popularization and application of information system, big data/cloud meter
The fast development of calculation technology, making distribution network construction transformation evaluation is no longer an economic work merely, and should more focus on evaluating
It is technical, systemic.First is that needing to study for example a large amount of distributed energy accesses of different distribution network engineering type entries, handing over directly
Stream mixing power network development is to the variation of distribution network construction standard, construction mode generation and to the shadow of electric grid investment construction cost
It rings, realizes the evaluation of power grid construction reforming effect；Second is that need to study power distribution network different voltages grade engineering help synergy fruit,
Single engineering inside typical project helps synergy fruit, realizes that multi objective helps increasing Assessment of results；Third is that needing by multi-source number
According to fusion and big data/cloud computing technology, quick and precisely Calculation Estimation index, refines the granularity of evaluation object more, real
Now regular evaluation and dynamic evaluation.Area grade integration assessment implement assets precisely invest, lean management theory, adhere to " unite
One planning, unified standard, it is safe and reliable, sturdy and durable " principle, optimize network structure in distribution network construction retrofit work,
Simplify device category, improve efficiency of investment, promote level of intelligence, effectively solution power supply capacity is limited, power quality is not high prominent
It goes wrong.Distribution network engineering investment project effect is assessed in area grade integration to excavate decreasing loss with rational capital project
Potentiality provide aid decision for distribution network engineering project planning investment and lean management, transport to scientific evaluation electrical network economy
Row, saving energy and decreasing loss work have a positive effect.
For many years, domestic and foreign scholars have carried out a lot of research work around electric grid investment and Effect on construction evaluation, but are directed to
There are still some technical problems not yet to capture for the effect assessment of huge, complicated and diversified power distribution network investment construction.On the one hand
It is to be restricted by the level of economic development of power supply area, load level, running environment, power grid base water equality factor difference, together
Influence contribution degree of one index to different zones is different, how to determine the calculating for adapting to different power supply area evaluation criterion weights
Method still face problem by；On the other hand be geographical environment, construction criteria, operation level, operation management level difference, respectively
Class plant life cycle differs greatly, and different regions distribution network engineering project investment management differs greatly.How distribution is established
The evaluation index and its evaluation index calculation method of net investment effect, the problems such as how considering regional disparity are area grades one
Bodyization assesses the problem faced.
In order to overcome these problems, distribution network engineering project effect assessment need to consider economy, it is social, technical,
Cost of investment otherness, power supply area otherness, construction mode otherness, construction criteria otherness, the following power distribution network develop shape
The multi-dimensional factors such as state need area grade integration evaluation system.Therefore, county-ground ,-province, province-state net progressive comment
The foundation for estimating index calculating method, weight modification method and comprehensive score detailed rules and regulations is that vertically integrated assessment distribution network engineering is thrown
Money effect solves the problems, such as first.Technology related to the present invention includes:
(1) index weights determine method
Index weights are to reflect that indices are realizing effect size played in object pre-provisioning request in quantitative mode
Specific gravity.The characteristics of objective system can more realistically be reflected by determining index weights not only, but also evaluation work can be made to realize
Primary and secondary is different, catches the effect of principal contradiction.The determination of index weights is the biggish work of difficulty in system evaluation, past
Toward repeatedly adjustment is needed on the whole, comprehensive ability is concluded repeatedly and is completed.Not only included qualitative index for one but also had had quantitative finger
The determination of target system, index weights generallys use analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Principal Component Analysis, the former can make full use of expert
Experience, the latter can make full use of objective data, to guarantee index weights confidence level with higher and reasonability, tie assessment
Fruit is just, accurate.
Principal Component Analysis (principal component analysis, PCA) is also referred to as principal component analysis method, it is intended to benefit
Multi objective is converted into a few overall target with the thought of dimensionality reduction.It is constructed the correlation of each index by primary information matrix
Matrix finally determines each index power then by seeking the characteristic value and the corresponding feature vector of each characteristic value of correlation matrix
Weight.
Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) (Analytic Hierarchy Process, AHP) be the U.S. plan strategies for scholar T.L.Saaty professor
In a kind of easy, flexible and practical criteria decision-making method that the initial stage seventies proposes.It with science method arrange and
The subjective judgement for combining people realizes qualitative analysis and combines with quantitative analysis.It has stringent Mathematics Proof, extensively
Applied to multi-level, multi objective complication system evaluation analysis and decision, it is particularly suitable for those and is difficult to complete quantitative analysis
Problem.Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) be then sought by expert estimation Judgement Matricies judgment matrix maximum eigenvalue it is corresponding
Feature vector finally determines each index weights.
(2) Application of Fuzzy Set Pair Analysis
Set Pair Analysis (Set Pair Analysis, SPA) be it is a kind of indetermination theory, be by Chinese scholar Zhao Keqin
A kind of systematic analytic method about determination, same, different, the anti-quantitative analysis of uncertain system-proposed in 1989.Its core
Thought is that certainty information and uncertain information are included in same system, studies things in terms of same, different, anti-three
Between certainty and uncertain, portray the connection and conversion between things comprehensively.
The basic conception of Set Pair Analysis is collection pair and its Pair Analysis.So-called collection pair exactly has two collection centainly contacted
Antithetical phrase composed by closing is analyzed according to a certain characteristic spread of collection pair, classify to the connection in the characteristic to collection quantitative
Description, obtains collecting the connection degree representation under a certain Question background are as follows:
μ=a+bi+cj (3-1)
In formula: μ is known as Pair Analysis, and the Pair Analysis for a particular problem is generally only a kind of structure function, only exists
It is only a numerical value in special circumstances.A indicates the same degree of two set, referred to as identical degree；B indicates the difference of two set
Different uncertainty degree, referred to as diversity factor；C indicates the opposition degree of two set, referred to as opposition degree；I is diversity factor coefficient,
[- 1,1] value.I changes between-l → l, embodies the mutual conversion between certainty and uncertainty, with i → 0, no
Certainty obviously increases, and when i takes -1 and 1, problem is all deterministic；J be opposition label symbol or corresponding coefficient, it is specified that
Value is -1.
Uncertainty caused by fuzzy, random and INFORMATION OF INCOMPLETE etc. can be uniformly processed in Pair Analysis.This delineation is to true
It is qualitative that wherein a, c are relatively determining with probabilistic quantitative description, and b be it is relatively uncertain, a, b, c meet as follows
Normalizing condition:
A+b+c=1 (3-2)
This relativity is the complexity and changeability due to objective objects, and the master that objective objects are recognized and portrayed
Uncertainty caused by the property seen and ambiguity.Thus in formula (1), certainty and uncertain, identity and antagonism exist
Understanding on relativity, ambiguity, the result of delineation is also opposite, not exclusive.Set Pair Analysis has effectively been delineated really
Fixed and uncertain system unity of opposites relationship, meets the dialectics of nature and mankind thought mode, has Methodological Significance.
Fuzzy Pair Analysis is that the Pair Analysis concept of Set Pair Analysis portrays the materialization of ambiguity in classification, is the person in servitude on domain
The microcosmic of category relationship is portrayed.It provides time opposition distribution description to an entire fuzzy information from angle of cognition, to be formed not
With the fuzzy set pair on understanding level.Fuzzy subset A, A using object X as domain, in XcRespectively certainty information and not
Certainty information corresponds to a kind of oppose and portrays.A pair of of fuzzy subset B, B using certainty information A as domain, in AcRespectively
For identity information and antagonism information, corresponds to another opposition and portray.The expression formula of fuzzy Pair Analysis:
In formula: μBIt (x) is the identical degree collected on domain X；μBC (x) is the opposition degree collected on domain X；μAc(x)
It is the diversity factor collected on domain X
Distribution network engineering investment project good for one, can not only guarantee power grid security reliability service, moreover it is possible to mention
The Technical Economy of high power distribution network.One feasible distribution network engineering investment project is formed and is passed through by several efficiency indexs
The comprehensive evaluation result of area grade integration assessment.How preferably to go out from numerous feasible distribution network engineering capital projects
Preferred plan also needs to consider construction retrofit fund, safe operation of electric network, reliable other than project investment cost to be considered
The multifactor limitations such as property, enforcement difficulty.In practical Authorize to Invest, these factors in need of consideration often be both opposition and
Unified, being unified in these factors well in an economic technology scheme decision model is good problem to study.
Make a general survey of integrationization assessment distribution network engineering project effect, to consider economy, it is social, technical, investment at
This otherness, power supply area otherness, construction mode otherness, construction criteria otherness, the following power distribution network development form etc. are more
Denapon element, these factors had often not only opposed but also unification.Existing distribution network engineering project achievement evaluation method does not account for each region
Relationship between grade does not account for cost of investment otherness, power supply area otherness, construction mode otherness, construction mark yet
Quasi- otherness is not suitable for multi-grade vertically integrated comprehensive assessment.
Summary of the invention
To solve the above-mentioned problems, the present invention provides the execution frame of vertically integrated assessment, proposes multizone grade
Progressive evaluation index calculation method, weight modification method and comprehensive score detailed rules and regulations are commented for processing power distribution network vertically integrated
Estimate distribution network engineering investment effect problem and provides new approaches.
The purpose of the present invention is adopt the following technical solutions realization:
A kind of appraisal procedure of distribution network engineering investment effect, which comprises
It is commented based on the otherness between each level cells of distribution network engineering and the distribution network engineering investment effect pre-established
Estimate index set, determines current power distribution network construction investment achievement evaluation index；
The index weights of the evaluation index are determined using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Principal Component Analysis, and are built based on power distribution network
If scale, distribution network engineering scale of investment and economic development level factor are modified the index weights of evaluation index；
Based on the index weights of the revised evaluation index, determines the credit comprehensive score of the evaluation index, obtain
Obtain the evaluation result of distribution network engineering investment effect.
Preferably, the determining current power distribution network construction investment achievement evaluation index includes:
It is successively drawn from high to low based on vertically integrated assessment target according to the upper and lower grade subordinate relation of distribution network engineering
Graduation unit；
Based on the otherness between upper and lower level cells and the distribution network engineering investment effect evaluation index pre-established
Collection calculates the evaluation index of different brackets unit；
Wherein, the otherness includes cost of investment otherness, power supply area otherness, construction mode otherness and construction
Standard deviation is anisotropic.
Further, region model of the upper and lower grade subordinate relation of the distribution network engineering based on distribution net work structure, administration
It encloses, the imbalance of region development, management difference, power grid construction scale, construction investment scale are determined.
Further, the foundation of the distribution network engineering investment effect evaluation index collection includes:
Turned based on the proportion of goods damageds, rate of qualified voltage, route and distribution transforming Overflow RateHT, interconnector for ability qualification rate, low pressure family
Equal capacity qualification rate, specific investment cost benefit, carbon emission reduction are high-volume constructed with enforcement difficulty；Wherein,
The proportion of goods damageds refer to damages before distribution network engineering scheme implements the loss difference and distribution network engineering scheme that front and back generates
Ratio between power consumption；
The rate of qualified voltage, user's rate of qualified voltage or low-voltage customer voltage for reacting predetermined level range are closed
Lattice rate；
The route and distribution transforming Overflow RateHT, after reflecting that N-1 forecast accident occurs for power distribution network, route or transformer
Overload degree；
The interconnector turns to pass through after reflecting that power distribution network breaks down and is isolated for ability qualification rate
The operation of switch and the excision of sub-load restore the power supply of remaining load；
Low pressure capacity qualification rate per family, for assessing low pressure capacity qualification rate per family；
The specific investment cost benefit refers to the ratio for implementing the amount of electricity saving that a certain distribution network engineering scheme generates and investment；
The carbon emission reduction high-volume refers to that distribution network engineering scheme implements the CO2 emissions difference of front and back；
The enforcement difficulty refers to the construction complexity index for considering that geography, landform, weather, environmental factor obtain.
Further, the otherness based between upper and lower level cells calculates the evaluation index of different brackets unit
Include:
When considering areal variation, the evaluation index of superordinate elements is determined by following formula:
In formula, Θ is bottom-ranked unit set；rSaP CityFor superordinate elements carbon emission reduction high-volume, rSaP CounFor bottom-ranked unit
Carbon emission reduction is high-volume；
When not considering areal variation, the evaluation index of superordinate elements is determined by following formula:
In formula, rLoss CityFor the proportion of goods damageds of superordinate elements；rLoss CounIndicate the waste of bottom-ranked unit；rSup CounHigher level is single
The basic data of the administrative bottom-ranked unit evaluation index of member；The basic data be pre-establish distribution network engineering investment at
It imitates evaluation index and concentrates corresponding parameter；
For consideration areal variation, and the evaluation index of superordinate elements can not be directly determined using bottom-ranked unit index value
When value, the evaluation index value of superordinate elements is determined by following formula:
In formula, { A+~E } indicates that six classes divided by economic development level are regional { A+, A, B, C, D, E }；WjFor jth class
The weight in area.
Preferably, the index weights that evaluation index is determined using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Principal Component Analysis include: by
The evaluation index value of different brackets unit is calculated separately using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Principal Component Analysis and is commented as assessment object
After the index weights for estimating object, the final index weights of each evaluation index are calculated in proportion.
Further, described to determine that each index weights include: using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
Judgment matrix is established using expert method；
Solve the corresponding feature vector of maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix；
Each index weights are calculated according to feature vector.
Further, the corresponding feature vector of maximum eigenvalue of judgment matrix is determined by following formula:
Bv=λmaxv
Each index weights are determined by following formula:
In formula, wiFor i-th of index weights, viIt is characterized the i-th dimension component of vector v；vkFor k-th of feature vector, m is
Index number；λmaxWith ν respectively indicate judgment matrix B maximum eigenvalue and its corresponding feature vector.
Further, described to determine that each index weights include: using Principal Component Analysis
The primary information matrix pre-established is standardized, normalized matrix is obtained；
According to normalized matrix, each index correlation matrix is determined；
Characteristic value and its characteristic value contribution rate of accumulative total based on the index correlation matrix choose principal component, and pass through normalizing
Change processing and determines each index weights.
Further, each index correlation matrix is determined by following formula:
In formula, i, j ∈ m, rijFor the degree of correlation of index i and index j, expression formula are as follows:
Further, the characteristic value of index correlation matrix is determined by following formula:
The characteristic value contribution rate of accumulative total of index correlation matrix is determined by following formula:
In formula, λiIt is characterized the descending vector set d=[λ being arranged to make up of value1,λ2, ┅, λm]TIn i-th to
Amount, ηiFor each characteristic value percentage, Σ ηlIt is characterized value contribution rate of accumulative total.
Further, when cumulative proportion in ANOVA reaches threshold value predetermined, principal component is determined by following formula:
In formula, YkFor k-th of principal component, l is to choose principal component number, and m ' is the former input variable that principal component includes
Number, vkiIt is characterized vector vkI-th dimension component；xiIt is characterized variable ZiVariable after standardization.
Further, each index weights of normalized are determined by following formula:
In formula,For each index weights respective value, wi' indicate to pass through each index weights of normalized.
Further, described to be based on distribution network construction scale, distribution network engineering scale of investment and economic development level factor
The index weights of evaluation index are modified and include:
Index weights are corrected by following formula:
In formula, 2p=1,2,3 be progressive three grades unit；wrThe weight in k class area where project, for reflecting
Economic development level；IpFor binary variable, 1 is taken comprising such area, not comprising taking 0；IpFor the investment of p grades of distribution network engineerings at
This, φ is p+1 grades of administrative p grades of distribution network engineering set, for reflecting distribution network engineering scale of investment；lpFor p grades of power distribution network works
Journey construction cost, ψ is p+1 grades of administrative p grades of distribution network engineering construction set, for reflecting distribution network engineering construction scale.
Further, distribution network engineering construction cost is determined by following formula:
In formula, lgFor construction retrofit 10kV length, ldFor construction retrofit low-voltage circuit length, lmFor platform area average low pressures line
Road length, NtAveragely match parameter for 10kV route.
Preferably, the index weights based on revised evaluation index determine that the credit of the evaluation index is comprehensive
Scoring, the evaluation result for obtaining distribution network engineering investment effect include:
All evaluation indexes are normalized, according to unified score standard to all indexs after normalized
It scores；The score that each single item index is chosen is added multiplied by corresponding comprehensive weight, obtains credit comprehensive score,
The credit comprehensive score is defined as to the evaluation result of distribution network engineering investment effect.
Further, credit comprehensive score is determined by following formula:
In formula, C represents the credit comprehensive score score value of evaluation index；SrIndicate the index value through normalized, Smin、
SmaxThe minimum value and maximum value that evaluation stage where respectively indicating the project through normalized allows
Preferably, after the evaluation result for obtaining distribution network engineering investment effect further include: throw distribution network engineering
The evaluation result of money effect is ranked up stability analysis, determines stability region, comprising:
The optimal value and most bad value for recording credit comprehensive score, according to the comparison area of the type evaluation index of evaluation index
Between, and all types of indexs are calculated in the fuzzy Pair Analysis for respectively comparing collection pair on section；
Evaluation of programme is defined for optimal evaluation system close to degree, with described close to journey according to the fuzzy Pair Analysis
The better bigger power distribution network capital project integrated status of the value of degree is criterion, evaluates the superiority and inferiority situation of distribution network engineering investment effect；
Again based on the opposite unascertained information obtained in advance, stabilization is ranked up to the evaluation result of distribution network engineering investment effect
Property analysis, obtain stability region；
Wherein, the type of the evaluation index includes positive type index and negative sense type index.
Further, the comparison section of evaluation index is determined by following formula:
In formula, M1For positive type index, M2For negative sense type index, [vr,ur] and [ur,vr] respectively indicate M1And M2Comparison
Section, ur、vrThe respectively corresponding index value of optimal case and Worst scheme.
Further, determine all types of indexs in the fuzzy Pair Analysis for respectively comparing collection pair on section by following formula:
μt=at+bti+ctj
In formula, { hkr,urIndicate that all types of indexs are respectively comparing collection pair, h on sectionkrIt is evaluation scheme in index mrOn
Value, at、ctRespectively indicate the affirmation and negation degree close to optimal evaluation system U.
Further, determine evaluation of programme for optimal evaluation system close to degree by following formula:
Further, the evaluation result to distribution network engineering investment effect is ranked up stability analysis, obtains steady
Determining region includes:
Variation based on distrbution network investment effect evaluation result Δ i in [- 1,1], to power distribution network work predetermined
The sequencing schemes that the corresponding scheme of the evaluation result of journey investment effect is concentrated are ranked up stability analysis；
Calculate the motif ranking results for meeting constraint condition in sequencing schemes, the stable region for taking section union to be sorted
Domain.
Further, as 0≤Δ i≤1, the motif sequence knot for meeting constraint condition in sequencing schemes is determined by following formula
Fruit:
Constraint condition are as follows:
cpak-ckap> (ckbp-cpbk)Δi；
If ckbp-cpbk≤ 0, there is Δ i ∈ [0,1]；
If ckbp-cpbk> 0, has
As -1≤Δ i < 0, the motif ranking results for meeting constraint condition in sequencing schemes are determined by following formula:
Constraint condition are as follows:
If akbp-apbk>=0, have Δ i ∈ [- 1,0)；
If akbp-apbk< 0, has
In formula, SkFor k-th of sequencing schemes of Sequence stability analysis scheme collection S,Sequencing schemes S when for Δ i ≠ 0k
Sequence ranking；It indicatesAdjacent sequencing schemes,And cpIndicate closeAffirmation and negation degree, akWith
ckIndicate closeAffirmation and negation degree.
A kind of assessment system of distribution network engineering investment effect, the system comprises:
Determination unit, for based on the otherness between each level cells of distribution network engineering and the power distribution network work pre-established
Journey investment effect evaluation index collection determines current power distribution network construction investment achievement evaluation index；
Amending unit, for determining the index weights of the evaluation index using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Principal Component Analysis,
And it is weighed based on the index of distribution network construction scale, distribution network engineering scale of investment and economic development level factor to evaluation index
It is modified again；
Assessment unit determines the letter of the evaluation index for the index weights based on the revised evaluation index
With comprehensive score, the evaluation result of distribution network engineering investment effect is obtained.
Compared with the immediate prior art, the present invention have it is following the utility model has the advantages that
The present invention provides the appraisal procedure and system of a kind of distribution network engineering investment effect, in unified distribution network engineering investment
In the identical situation of effect assessment index system, the evaluation of area grade vertically integrated distribution network engineering investment effect is given
Execution process.Based between each level cells of distribution network engineering otherness and pre-establish distribution network engineering investment at
Evaluation index collection is imitated, determines current power distribution network construction investment achievement evaluation index.Establish progressive evaluation index calculating side
Method carries out differentiation processing according to area grade to index code of points.
According to distribution network construction scale, distribution network engineering scale of investment, A+~E class subregion accounting, economic development level because
Element establishes the progressive index weights modification method of each grade.Using described in analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Principal Component Analysis determination
The index weights of evaluation index, and it is based on distribution network construction scale, distribution network engineering scale of investment and economic development level factor
The index weights of evaluation index are modified.
Based on the index weights of the revised evaluation index, determines the credit comprehensive score of the evaluation index, obtain
Obtain the evaluation result of distribution network engineering investment effect.It is preferred that power distribution network journey capital project effect is carried out using Application of Fuzzy Set Pair Analysis
Decision calculates simple using the method clear concept of relative similarity degree evaluation of programme superiority and inferiority degree.And condition is being determined relatively
While lower carry out scheme superiority and inferiority is judged, recycles opposite unascertained information that ranking results are carried out with the analysis of stability, give
Other ranking results are found in stability region out, never can determine metastable sequence in stable sort.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is the method general flow chart provided in the specific embodiment of the invention；
Fig. 2 is the equal vertically integrated distribution network engineering investment effect estimation flow figure provided in the embodiment of the present invention.
Specific embodiment
It elaborates with reference to the accompanying drawing to a specific embodiment of the invention.
Embodiment 1:
A kind of appraisal procedure of distribution network engineering investment effect provided by the invention, as shown in Figure 1, comprising:
S1 is based on the otherness between each level cells of distribution network engineering and the distribution network engineering investment effect pre-established
Evaluation index collection determines current power distribution network construction investment achievement evaluation index；
S2 determines the index weights of the evaluation index using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Principal Component Analysis, and is based on power distribution network
Construction scale, distribution network engineering scale of investment and economic development level factor are modified the index weights of evaluation index；
Index weights of the S3 based on the revised evaluation index, determine the credit comprehensive score of the evaluation index,
Obtain the evaluation result of distribution network engineering investment effect.
In step S1, determine that current power distribution network construction investment achievement evaluation index includes:
A assesses target based on vertically integrated, according to the upper and lower grade subordinate relation of distribution network engineering, from high to low successively
Divided rank unit；
B, based on the otherness between upper and lower level cells and the distribution network engineering investment effect evaluation index pre-established
Collection calculates the evaluation index of different brackets unit；
Wherein, the otherness includes cost of investment otherness, power supply area otherness, construction mode otherness and construction
Standard deviation is anisotropic.
In step a, the upper and lower grade subordinate relation of distribution network engineering is based on distribution net work structure, the territorial scope of administration, region
Imbalance, management difference, power grid construction scale, the construction investment scale of development are determined.
In step b, the foundation of distribution network engineering investment effect evaluation index collection includes:
The proportion of goods damageds, rate of qualified voltage, route and distribution transforming is based on based on distribution network engineering investment effect evaluation index collection to overload
Rate, interconnector turn for ability qualification rate, low pressure per family capacity qualification rate, specific investment cost benefit, carbon emission reduction high-volume with implement it is difficult
Degree building distribution network engineering investment effect evaluation index collection；Wherein,
The proportion of goods damageds, which refer to, is lost electricity before distribution network engineering scheme implements the loss difference and distribution network engineering scheme that front and back generates
Ratio between amount；
Rate of qualified voltage, the user's rate of qualified voltage or low-voltage customer voltage for reacting predetermined level range are qualified
Rate；
Route and distribution transforming Overflow RateHT, after reflecting that N-1 forecast accident occurs for power distribution network, route or transformer it is excessively negative
Lotus degree；
Interconnector turns to pass through switch after reflecting that power distribution network breaks down and is isolated for ability qualification rate
Operation and sub-load excision, restore the power supply of remaining load；
Low pressure capacity qualification rate per family, for assessing low pressure capacity qualification rate per family；
Specific investment cost benefit refers to the ratio for implementing the amount of electricity saving that a certain distribution network engineering scheme generates and investment；
Carbon emission reduction high-volume refers to that distribution network engineering scheme implements the CO2 emissions difference of front and back；
Enforcement difficulty refers to the construction complexity index for considering that geography, landform, weather, environmental factor obtain.
Wherein, the proportion of goods damageds are determined by following formula:
In formula, r1Indicate the proportion of goods damageds.
Rate of qualified voltage is determined by following formula:
In formula, △ is the rate of qualified voltage of 10kV user's voltage detecting point and low-voltage customer.
Route or distribution transforming Overflow RateHT are determined by following formula:
In formula, r3Indicate that route or distribution transforming Overflow RateHT, Ω are out-of-limit line and transformer set.
Determine that interconnector load can turn for ability qualification rate by following formula:
In formula, r4Indicate that interconnector load can turn for ability qualification rate.
Low pressure capacity qualification rate per family is determined by following formula:
In formula, r5Indicate low pressure capacity qualification rate per family.
Step S1 determines that current power distribution network engineering is thrown based on the distribution network engineering investment effect evaluation index collection pre-established
Providing achievement evaluation index includes:
A, based on distribution net work structure, the territorial scope of administration, the imbalance of region development, management difference, power grid construction rule
Mould, construction investment scale determine the superior and the subordinate's subordinate relation of distribution network engineering；
B, according to the superior and the subordinate's subordinate relation of distribution network engineering, successively divided rank unit from high to low；
C calculates the evaluation index value of different brackets unit based on the otherness between upper and lower level cells.
In step c, based on the otherness between upper and lower level cells, the evaluation index value packet of different brackets unit is calculated
It includes:
When considering areal variation, the evaluation index value of superordinate elements is determined by following formula:
In formula, Θ is bottom-ranked unit set；rSaP CityFor superordinate elements carbon emission reduction high-volume, rSaP CounFor bottom-ranked unit
Carbon emission reduction is high-volume；
When not considering areal variation, the evaluation index value of superordinate elements is determined by following formula:
In formula, rLoss CityFor the proportion of goods damageds of superordinate elements；rLoss CounIndicate the waste of bottom-ranked unit；rSup CounHigher level is single
The basic data of the administrative bottom-ranked unit evaluation index of member；
For consideration areal variation, and the evaluation index of superordinate elements can not be directly determined using bottom-ranked unit index value
When value, the evaluation index value of superordinate elements is determined by following formula:
In formula, { A+~E } indicates that six classes divided by economic development level are regional { A+, A, B, C, D, E }；WjFor jth class
The weight in area.
Step S2, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Principal Component Analysis determine evaluation index index weights include: will be different
The evaluation index value of level cells calculates separately assessment pair as assessment object, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Principal Component Analysis
After the index weights of elephant, the final index weights of each evaluation index, expression formula are calculated in proportion are as follows:
W=0.5wi+0.5wi′
In formula, wiAnd wi' it is respectively the index power that the assessment object obtained is calculated using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) Principal Component Analysis
Weight.
(1) determine that each index weights include: using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
Judgment matrix is established using expert method, i.e., is filled out a questionnaire by expert for a certain assessment object, according to application form
Establish judgment matrix；
Solve the corresponding feature vector of maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix；
Each index weights are calculated according to feature vector.
Judgment matrix is determined by following formula:
The corresponding feature vector of maximum eigenvalue of judgment matrix is determined by following formula:
Bv=λmaxv
Each index weights are determined by following formula:
In formula, wiTo pass through viIt is characterized the i-th dimension component of vector v；M is index number；λmaxJudgement square is respectively indicated with ν
The maximum eigenvalue of battle array B and its corresponding feature vector.
(2) determine that each index weights include: using Principal Component Analysis
The primary information matrix pre-established is standardized, normalized matrix is obtained；
According to normalized matrix, each index correlation matrix is determined；
Characteristic value and its characteristic value contribution rate of accumulative total based on the index correlation matrix choose principal component, and pass through normalizing
Change processing and determines each index weights.
Normalized matrix is determined by following formula:
In formula, xnmFor the index sample in normalized matrix X, i=1,2,3 ..., m, n is sample number, and m is index number.
Each index correlation matrix is determined by following formula:
In formula, i, j ∈ m, rijFor the degree of correlation of index i and index j, expression formula are as follows:
The characteristic value of index correlation matrix is determined by following formula:
The characteristic value contribution rate of accumulative total of index correlation matrix is determined by following formula:
In formula, λiIt is characterized the descending vector set d=[λ being arranged to make up of value1,λ2, ┅, λm]TIn i-th to
Amount, ηiFor each characteristic value percentage, Σ ηlIt is characterized value contribution rate of accumulative total.
When cumulative proportion in ANOVA reaches threshold value predetermined, principal component is determined by following formula:
In formula, YkFor k-th of principal component, l is to choose principal component number, and m ' is the former input variable that principal component includes
Number, vkiIt is characterized vector vkI-th dimension component；xiIt is characterized variable ZiVariable after standardization.
Each index weights of normalized are determined by following formula:
In formula,For each index weights respective value, wi' indicate to pass through each index weights of normalized.
Step S2, based on distribution network construction scale, distribution network engineering scale of investment and economic development level factor to assessment
The index weights of index, which are modified, includes:
Index weights are corrected by following formula:
In formula, 2p=1,2,3 be progressive three grades unit；wrThe weight in k class area where project, for reflecting
Economic development level；IpFor binary variable, 1 is taken comprising such area, not comprising taking 0；IpFor the investment of p grades of distribution network engineerings at
This, φ is p+1 grades of administrative p grades of distribution network engineering set, for reflecting distribution network engineering scale of investment；lpFor p grades of power distribution network works
Journey construction cost, ψ is p+1 grades of administrative p grades of distribution network engineering construction set, for reflecting distribution network engineering construction scale.
Distribution network engineering construction cost is determined by following formula:
In formula, lgFor construction retrofit 10kV length, ldFor construction retrofit low-voltage circuit length, lmFor platform area average low pressures line
Road length, NtAveragely match parameter for 10kV route.
Step S3 determines the credit comprehensive score of evaluation index based on the index weights of the revised evaluation index,
Obtain the evaluation result of distribution network engineering investment effect:
All evaluation indexes are normalized, according to unified score standard to all indexs after normalized
It scores；The score that each single item index is chosen is added multiplied by corresponding comprehensive weight, obtains credit comprehensive score.
All indexs are normalized by following formula:
In formula, Sr, Srea, Smin, SmaxSuccessively indicate the later value of normalizedization, actual value and assessment where project
The minimum value and maximum value that grade allows.
Credit comprehensive score is determined by following formula:
In formula, C represents the credit comprehensive score score value of evaluation index.
Step S3, obtain distribution network engineering investment effect evaluation result after further include: the credit based on evaluation index
Comprehensive score is ranked up stability analysis to the evaluation result of distribution network engineering investment effect, determines that stability region includes:
The optimal value and most bad value for recording credit comprehensive score, according to the comparison area of the type evaluation index of evaluation index
Between, and all types of indexs are calculated in the fuzzy Pair Analysis for respectively comparing collection pair on section；
Evaluation of programme is defined for optimal evaluation system close to degree, with described close to journey according to the fuzzy Pair Analysis
The better bigger power distribution network capital project integrated status of the value of degree is criterion, evaluates the superiority and inferiority situation of distribution network engineering investment effect；
Again based on the opposite unascertained information obtained in advance, stabilization is ranked up to the evaluation result of distribution network engineering investment effect
Property analysis, obtain stability region；
Wherein, the type of the evaluation index includes positive type index and negative sense type index.
The comparison section of evaluation index is determined by following formula:
In formula, M1For positive type index, M2For negative sense type index, [vr,ur] and [ur,vr] respectively indicate M1And M2Comparison
Section, ur、vrThe respectively corresponding index value of optimal case and Worst scheme.
Determine all types of indexs in the fuzzy Pair Analysis for respectively comparing collection pair on section by following formula:
μt=at+bti+ctj
In formula, { hkr,urIndicate that all types of indexs are respectively comparing collection pair, h on sectionkrIt is evaluation scheme in index mrOn
Value, at、ctRespectively indicate the affirmation and negation degree close to optimal evaluation system U.
Determine evaluation of programme for optimal evaluation system close to degree by following formula:
Stability analysis is ranked up to the evaluation result of distribution network engineering investment effect, obtaining stability region includes:
Variation based on distrbution network investment effect evaluation result Δ i in [- 1,1], to power distribution network work predetermined
The sequencing schemes that the corresponding scheme of the evaluation result of journey investment effect is concentrated are ranked up stability analysis；
Calculate the motif ranking results for meeting constraint condition in sequencing schemes, the stable region for taking section union to be sorted
Domain.
As 0≤Δ i≤1, the motif ranking results for meeting constraint condition in sequencing schemes are determined by following formula:
Constraint condition are as follows:
cpak-ckap> (ckbp-cpbk)Δi；
If ckbp-cpbk≤ 0, there is Δ i ∈ [0,1]；
If ckbp-cpbk> 0, has
As -1≤Δ i < 0, the motif ranking results for meeting constraint condition in sequencing schemes are determined by following formula:
Constraint condition are as follows:
If akbp-apbk>=0, have Δ i ∈ [- 1,0)；
If akbp-apbk< 0, has
In formula, SkFor k-th of sequencing schemes of Sequence stability analysis scheme collection S,Sequencing schemes S when for Δ i ≠ 0k
Sequence ranking；It indicatesAdjacent sequencing schemes,And cpIndicate closeAffirmation and negation degree, akWith
ckIndicate closeAffirmation and negation degree.
Embodiment 2:
As shown in Fig. 2, by taking China national distribution network engineering as an example, vertically integrated that the problems such as considering regional disparity sets
The superior and the subordinate's subordinate relation includes: the first order in assessment: state's net；The second level: province's net of state's category off the net, the third level: category off the net is saved
Districts and cities' net, county's net of fourth stage districts and cities category off the net, etc..
(1) distribution network engineering investment effect evaluation index collection
Net-province-districts and cities-, state County Level Distribution Network construction investment achievement evaluation index is identical, and index set is the { proportion of goods damageds；Electricity
Press qualification rate；Route or distribution transforming Overflow RateHT；Route turns for ability qualification rate；Low pressure capacity qualification rate per family；Specific investment cost effect
Benefit；Carbon emission reduction is high-volume；Enforcement difficulty }.
1) proportion of goods damageds r1: refer to using the loss difference and distribution network engineering scheme generated behind a certain distribution network engineering scheme front and back
The ratio of preceding loss of electricity, such as formula (5-1), value is the bigger the better, and is income type index:
2) rate of qualified voltage r2: reflection 10kV user's voltage qualification and 380/220V low-voltage customer rate of qualified voltage, meter
Such as (5-2), value is the bigger the better formula, is income type index:
In formula: △ is 10kV user's voltage detecting point and 380/220V low-voltage customer rate of qualified voltage.
3) route or distribution transforming Overflow RateHT r3: route or transformer overload journey after N-1 forecast accident occur for reflection power distribution network
Degree, value is the smaller the better, is non-income type index.Is defined as:
In formula: Ω is out-of-limit line and transformer set.
4) interconnector load can turn for ability qualification rate r4: after reflection power distribution network breaks down and is isolated, lead to
The excision for crossing the inessential load of operation and part of switch, it is quickly preferential to restore failure under conditions of meeting security constraint
While the power supply of the important load of power loss, also restore the power supply of other loads as far as possible due to being influenced by failure in downstream.Its value is got over
It is big better, it is income type index.Calculation formula:
In formula: power supply line (have the route of communication relationship while being under the peak load method of operation), certain loop line can be turned
When substation's outlet switch on road is stopped transport, whole loads can turn twice powered operation by not super, turn to be supplied by All other routes
Electricity, then the route is known as that power supply line can be turned.
5) low pressure capacity qualification rate r per family5: the calculation formula of low pressure capacity qualification rate per family is worth bigger such as shown in (5-5)
It is better, it is income type index.
In formula: capacity refers to the ratio of the distribution capacity and resident's number of being responsible for power supply per family.
6) specific investment cost benefit r6: refer to the ratio of the amount of electricity saving and investment that generate using a certain distribution network engineering scheme, i.e.,
The power savings of specific investment cost, value are the bigger the better, and are income type index.Amount of electricity saving refers to using before and after distribution network engineering scheme
The difference of loss of electricity.Investment: refer to the fund that used device is needed using a certain distribution network engineering scheme.
7) carbon emission reduction high-volume r7: refer to and net (is not considered using CO2 emissions difference before and after distribution network engineering scheme
Damage), value is the bigger the better, and is income type index.
8) enforcement difficulty r8: consider the construction complexity index that the factors such as geography, landform, weather, environment provide, be divided into
{ difficult, generally, to be easier to, be easy } four classes, are quantified, value is the bigger the better, and is income type index with { 1,2,3,4 }.
(2) progressive evaluation index calculation method
Net-province-districts and cities-, state County Level Distribution Network construction investment achievement evaluation index is although identical, but since include matches
Electric network composition, the territorial scope of administration, the imbalance of region development, management difference, power grid construction scale, construction investment scale
Deng difference and net-province-, state the superior and the subordinate, districts and cities-county subordinate relation, cause the calculation method of evaluation index to have differences.
Therefore doscrimination is needed.For assessment at county level, the calculating of evaluation index is carried out using index calculating method described in (1)
It calculates.And the influence for needing to consider junior's power distribution network of institute's subordinate is calculated for state's net-province-city-level index, i.e., using progressive
The evaluation index calculation method of formula.For some sides that can directly can use summation using the index of junior's assessment result
Method calculates, such as carbon emission reduction high-volume, city-level calculation method are as follows:
In formula: the administrative county's collection in the city Θ Zhi Gai；rSaP CityBe certain city's carbon emission reduction high-volume；rSaP CounCertain administrative county's carbon of the city Zhi Gai subtracts
Discharge amount.
And those are not considered with the index value that cannot directly use junior's assessment result of areal variation, under obtaining
Grade basic data and calculate, such as the proportion of goods damageds, rate of qualified voltage, route or distribution transforming Overflow RateHT, interconnector can turn for ability close
Capacity qualification rate, carbon emission reduction be high-volume per family for lattice rate, low pressure }.By taking the proportion of goods damageds as an example, city-level calculation formula are as follows:
In formula: the administrative county's collection in the city Θ Zhi Gai；rLoss CityIt is certain city's proportion of goods damaged；rLoss CounIt is certain county's waste；rSup CounRefer to
Certain administrative county's power supply volume of the city.
And those are needed to consider with the index value that cannot directly use of areal variation, it is realized by weighted calculation, such as
{ specific investment cost benefit, enforcement difficulty }.By taking specific investment cost benefit as an example, its calculation formula is:
In formula, the administrative county's collection in the city Θ Zhi Gai；J refers to which class regional { A+~E } with referring to six classes divided by economic development level
Area, i.e. { A+, A, B, C, D, E }；Wj refers to the weight in jth class area, bigger for more developed regions weight, otherwise smaller.
(3) progressive evaluation index weight
In order to handle the different index of different stage, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Principal Component Analysis are used to determine that index is weighed
Weight.The otherness and the superior and the subordinate's subordinate relation, different stage for considering area simultaneously are modified index weights.
For County Level Distribution Network Engineering Project achievement evaluation index weights determination using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and it is main at
Point analytic approach determines index weights, to consider expertise, and combines objective reality.Use analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and principal component
After analytic approach determines each sub-indicator weight respectively, final index weights are then determined according to a certain percentage again.It is expressed
Formula:
W=0.5wAHP+0.5wPCA (5-9)
(4) analytic hierarchy process (AHP) determines that the step of each index weights is as follows:
1) it is filled out a questionnaire first by expert for a certain assessment object, establishes following judgment matrix according to application form:
2) the maximum eigenvalue λ of judgment matrix B is soughtmaxAnd its corresponding feature vector ν, calculation formula such as:
Bv=λmaxv (5-11)
3) each index weights are sought according to feature vector, such as formula:
In formula: viIt is characterized the i-th dimension component of vector v；M is index number.
(5) Principal Component Analysis determines that the step of each index weights is as follows:
1) primary information matrix is established, and is standardized, normalized matrix is obtained.If sample number is n, index number
For m, variable is X after standardizationi(i=1,2,3 ..., m).Normalized matrix are as follows:
2) each index correlation matrix is acquired according to normalized matrix
In formula: xijRefer to the degree of correlation of index i and index j, wherein diagonal element is auto-correlation coefficient, off-diagonal element
For cross-correlation coefficient.
The solution expression formula of element are as follows:
3) characteristic value and its characteristic value contribution rate of accumulative total of index correlation matrix R are asked
Characteristic value is descending to be arranged to make up vector d=[λ1,λ2, ┅, λm]T, and counted using formula (5-13) and (5-14)
Calculate each characteristic value percentage (ηi) and contribution rate of accumulative total (Σ ηl)。
4) principal component is chosen, and each index weights are determined by normalized
The cumulative proportion in ANOVA of all characteristic values is 100, but (usually takes Σ η when cumulative proportion in ANOVA is sufficiently largel
>=85%), corresponding preceding l principal component just includes most information that m former input variable can be provided, therefore is chosen
Principal component number p=l.K-th of principal component YkAre as follows:
In formula: vkiIt is characterized vector vkI-th dimension component；XiIt is characterized variable ZiVariable after standardization.
Each index weights respective value are as follows:
It takesNormalized value be final each index weights:
The determination of net-province-, state city-level distribution network engineering project investment achievement evaluation index weights is removed using level point
Analysis method and Principal Component Analysis determine outside index weights, will also according to distribution network construction scale, distribution network engineering scale of investment,
Economic development level factor is modified it, index weights correction formula are as follows:
In formula: p=1,2,3 refers to province-city-level-county；wrThe weight in k class area, economically developed for reflecting where finger project
Degree degree；IpFor binary variable, 1 is taken comprising such area, not comprising taking 0；IpFor p grades of distribution network engineering costs of investment, φ
For p+1 grades of administrative p grades of distribution network engineering set, for reflecting distribution network engineering scale of investment；lpIt is built for p grades of distribution network engineerings
It is set as this, ψ is p+1 grades of administrative p grades of distribution network engineering construction set, for reflecting distribution network engineering construction scale, is used for here
Consider that construction scale construction cost is high, geographical location difference brings the difference of investment, quantitative formula:
In formula: lgFor construction retrofit 10kV length；ldFor construction retrofit low-voltage circuit length；lmFor platform area average low pressures line
Road length；NtAveragely match parameter for 10kV route.
5) the corresponding amendment principle of each index weights are as follows:
1. county-ground: not considering construction scale (the close Regional Investment in geographical location and scale are of equal value)
2.-save, province-state's net: considering construction scale, (geographical location is remote, equally invests but construction scale is different, such as cloud
Diqing Prefecture (prefecture-level) south depends on nearly Tibet, unified cost, is higher than other districts and cities, Yunnan Province in state) it is provincial.
3. state's net grade considers economic development level；State's net, provincial consideration distribution network construction scale；Districts and cities, consideration at county level are matched
The electricity power engineering scale of investment factor；Districts and cities, consideration A+~E class subregion accounting at county level.
(6) progressive index code of points method.
The work of vertically integrated distribution network engineering project investment achievement evaluation is still in conceptual phase, therefore lacks and can refer to
Standards of grading.The present invention is according to net-province-districts and cities-, the state county's vertically integrated estimation flow mentioned, in conjunction with the index mentioned
Type simultaneously considers the othernesses such as engineering project affiliated area, gives state's net-province-districts and cities-county progressive score by rules and item
Mesh grading standard.
In net-province-districts and cities-, state county's vertically integrated estimation flow, although the index that each rank uses is the same,
Obviously due to the difference of administrative area, leading to some indexs, (such as proportion of goods damageds, specific investment cost income, implement hardly possible at rate of qualified voltage
Degree) quantization value range have apparent difference.Therefore, all indexs are normalized in the present invention, then
It scores according to unified score standard.Its dimensionless calculation formula is as follows:
In formula: Sr, Srea, Smin, SmaxSuccessively refer to the later value of normalizedization, actual value and evaluation stage where project
The minimum value and maximum value of permission.Then it scores according to hundred-mark system, code of points carries out as follows:
In formula: C represents the index final score value.Each grade with corresponding hundred-mark system score come embody its assessment it is excellent
It is bad, the score that each single item index is chosen is added multiplied by corresponding comprehensive weight finally, show that last credit synthesis is commented
Point.Table 1 is grade score table.
1 grade score table of table
(7) most value and fuzzy Pair Analysis determine
The type of evaluation index has positive type index (being denoted as M1, value is the bigger the better), negative sense type index (to be denoted as M2, value is got over
It is small better).Note optimal case and Worst scheme correspond to erIndex value be respectively ur、vr.Therefore, when the optimal value of index and most
After bad value determines, so that it may the comparison section of index is determined by the type of index, thus further constitute scheme comparison space [V,
U].Two class index mrComparison section are as follows:
Two index of classification obtain collecting to { h on respective relatively sectionkr,urFuzzy Pair Analysis calculating formula successively are as follows:
In formula: hkrIt is evaluation scheme in index mrOn value.
If remembering fuzzy Pair Analysis formula are as follows:
μt=at+bti+ctj (5-28)
Then due to identical degree at, opposition degree ctBe it is relatively determining, respectively indicate close to optimal evaluation system U affirmative and
Negative degree, then can define relative similarity degree of the evaluation of programme relative to U under the conditions of determining relatively are as follows:
According to γtSize distribution network engineering investment effect can be assessed, wherein γtIt is worth bigger person's power distribution network investment
Schemes synthesis situation is better.
(8) Sequence stability analysis
In distribution network engineering investment effect appraisal procedure of the invention, using μk=ak+bki+ckMetastable a in jk
And ckIt constitutes opposite close to degree γkCarry out the superiority and inferiority situation of evaluation of programme.But bkIt is relatively uncertain, value size mark
Probabilistic size, and the symbol of i and value can be considered bkTo akOr ckAmendment direction and amendment degree, will be to scheme
Evaluation result have an impact.It is therefore necessary to be ranked up stability analysis to electric power distribution network investment effect evaluation result, and
Find other ranking results in addition to basic label as much as possible to get extension sequence is arrived.
Analysis mode μk=ak+bki+ckJ can be obtained, as i > 0, as to akPositive amendment, indicate to SkClose to ideal
The affirmative attitude of optimal case U, and i, closer to 1, this correcting action is stronger.Conversely, as i > 0, as to ckForward direction
Amendment, indicates to SkClose to the negative attitude of U, and i closer -1, this correcting action is stronger.For this purpose, about i [- 1,
1] variation in can carry out the stability analysis of schemes ranking.
For clear expression, note i is Δ i, then [- 1,1] Δ i ∈.It is assumed that for entire scheme collection S, Δ i is identical.If SkIt is former
Sequence ranking is l, remembers original γkForAs Δ i ≠ 0, value becomesIt is assumed that having in former schemes rankingThen root
It can be obtained according to formula (5-30):
cpak-ckap> 0 (5-30)
1) as 0≤Δ i≤1, formula (5-30) becomes:
To maintain former sequenceC need to be metpak-ckap> (ckbp-cpbk)Δi.It can obtain:
1. working as ckbp-cpbkWhen≤0, there is Δ i ∈ [0,1]；
2. working as ckbp-cpbkWhen > 0, have
2) as -1≤Δ i < 0, formula (5-31) becomes:
It can must similarly remain former to sortCondition:
1. working as akbp-apbkWhen >=0, have Δ i ∈ [- 1,0)；
2. working as akbp-apbkWhen < 0, have
The section union for seeking above-mentioned two situations can just be sortedStability region.This is only to adjacent row
The partial analysis of sequence scheme p and k stability only needs successively to compare two-by-two for the overall stability for guaranteeing scheme collection S ranking results
Compared with analysis, then the intersection of all i value intervals is the stability region of scheme collection S motif ranking results.In unstable region,
The other possible ranking results of scheme collection can be obtained according to the value of i, be referred to as extension sequence.
Though the present embodiment by taking China national power grid as an example, is not limited to Chinese situation, for any national, area
Power grid is all suitable for, and the power grid superlative degree can be set as to the first order, successively divide into power grids at different levels, and be not limited solely to 4 grades,
Series can be set according to each grid condition.
Embodiment 3:
By taking American National distribution network engineering as an example, consider regional disparity the problems such as set vertically integrated assessment in up and down
Grade subordinate relation includes: the first order: national distrbution network；The second level: individual states such as California and knob of state's category off the net
The about electric power network in state, including, the third level: the town and country electricity of districts and cities' net of state power supply system subordinate, fourth stage districts and cities category off the net
Net, etc..
National distrbution network-state-districts and cities-town and country distribution network engineering investment effect evaluation index is identical, and index set is { damage
Consumption rate；Rate of qualified voltage；Route or distribution transforming Overflow RateHT；Route turns for ability qualification rate；Low pressure capacity qualification rate per family；Unit
Returns of investment；Carbon emission reduction is high-volume；Enforcement difficulty }.
The progressive evaluation index for the China national power grid that above-described embodiment 2 is recorded calculates, and believes evaluation index
The present embodiment is also applied for the distribution network engineering investment effect appraisal procedure of comprehensive score.
Based on the same inventive concept, the present invention also provides a kind of assessment system of distribution network engineering investment effect, the systems
System includes:
Determination unit, for based on the otherness between each level cells of distribution network engineering and the power distribution network work pre-established
Journey investment effect evaluation index collection determines current power distribution network construction investment achievement evaluation index；
Amending unit, for determining the index weights of the evaluation index using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Principal Component Analysis,
And it is weighed based on the index of distribution network construction scale, distribution network engineering scale of investment and economic development level factor to evaluation index
It is modified again；
Assessment unit determines the letter of the evaluation index for the index weights based on the revised evaluation index
With comprehensive score, the evaluation result of distribution network engineering investment effect is obtained.
It should be understood by those skilled in the art that, embodiments herein can provide as method, system or computer program
Product.Therefore, complete hardware embodiment, complete software embodiment or reality combining software and hardware aspects can be used in the application
Apply the form of example.Moreover, it wherein includes the computer of computer usable program code that the application, which can be used in one or more,
The computer program implemented in usable storage medium (including but not limited to magnetic disk storage, CD-ROM, optical memory etc.) produces
The form of product.
The application is referring to method, the process of equipment (system) and computer program product according to the embodiment of the present application
Figure and/or block diagram describe.It should be understood that can be realized by computer program instructions each in flowchart and/or the block diagram
The combination of process and/or box in process and/or box and flowchart and/or the block diagram.It can provide these computers
Processor of the program instruction to general purpose computer, special purpose computer, Embedded Processor or other programmable data processing devices
To generate a machine, so that being generated by the instruction that computer or the processor of other programmable data processing devices execute
For realizing the function of being specified in one or more flows of the flowchart and/or one or more blocks of the block diagram
Device.
These computer program instructions, which may also be stored in, is able to guide computer or other programmable data processing devices with spy
Determine in the computer-readable memory that mode works, so that instruction stored in the computer readable memory generation includes
The manufacture of command device, the command device are realized in one box of one or more flows of the flowchart and/or block diagram
Or the function of being specified in multiple boxes.
These computer program instructions also can be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing device, so that counting
Series of operation steps are executed on calculation machine or other programmable devices to generate computer implemented processing, thus in computer
Or the instruction executed on other programmable devices is provided for realizing in one or more flows of the flowchart and/or box
The step of function of being specified in figure one box or multiple boxes.
Finally it should be noted that: the above embodiments are merely illustrative of the technical scheme of the present invention and are not intended to be limiting thereof, to the greatest extent
Invention is explained in detail referring to above-described embodiment for pipe, it should be understood by those ordinary skilled in the art that: still
Can with modifications or equivalent substitutions are made to specific embodiments of the invention, and without departing from spirit and scope of the invention appoint
What modification or equivalent replacement, should all cover within the scope of the claims of the present invention.
Claims (24)
1. a kind of appraisal procedure of distribution network engineering investment effect, which is characterized in that the described method includes:
Referred to based on the otherness between each level cells of distribution network engineering and the distribution network engineering investment effect pre-established assessment
Mark collection, determines current power distribution network construction investment achievement evaluation index；
The index weights of the evaluation index are determined using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Principal Component Analysis, and are advised based on distribution network construction
Mould, distribution network engineering scale of investment and economic development level factor are modified the index weights of evaluation index；
Based on the index weights of the revised evaluation index, determines the credit comprehensive score of the evaluation index, matched
The evaluation result of electricity power engineering investment effect.
2. the method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the determining current power distribution network construction investment achievement evaluation index
Include:
Target is assessed based on vertically integrated, according to the upper and lower grade subordinate relation of distribution network engineering, successively divide from high to low etc.
Grade unit；
Based on the otherness between upper and lower level cells and the distribution network engineering investment effect evaluation index collection pre-established, meter
Calculate the evaluation index of different brackets unit；
Wherein, the otherness includes cost of investment otherness, power supply area otherness, construction mode otherness and construction criteria
Otherness.
3. method according to claim 2, which is characterized in that the upper and lower grade subordinate relation of the distribution network engineering is based on matching
Electric network composition, the territorial scope of administration, region development imbalance, management difference, power grid construction scale, construction investment scale into
Row determines.
4. method according to claim 2, which is characterized in that the foundation of the distribution network engineering investment effect evaluation index collection
Include:
Turn to hold per family for ability qualification rate, low pressure based on the proportion of goods damageds, rate of qualified voltage, route and distribution transforming Overflow RateHT, interconnector
Amount qualification rate, specific investment cost benefit, carbon emission reduction are high-volume constructed with enforcement difficulty；Wherein,
The proportion of goods damageds, which refer to, is lost electricity before distribution network engineering scheme implements the loss difference and distribution network engineering scheme that front and back generates
Ratio between amount；
The rate of qualified voltage, the user's rate of qualified voltage or low-voltage customer voltage for reacting predetermined level range are qualified
Rate；
The route and distribution transforming Overflow RateHT, after reflecting that N-1 forecast accident occurs for power distribution network, route or transformer it is excessively negative
Lotus degree；
The interconnector turns to pass through switch after reflecting that power distribution network breaks down and is isolated for ability qualification rate
Operation and sub-load excision, restore the power supply of remaining load；
Low pressure capacity qualification rate per family, for assessing low pressure capacity qualification rate per family；
The specific investment cost benefit refers to the ratio for implementing the amount of electricity saving that a certain distribution network engineering scheme generates and investment；
The carbon emission reduction high-volume refers to that distribution network engineering scheme implements the CO2 emissions difference of front and back；
The enforcement difficulty refers to the construction complexity index for considering that geography, landform, weather, environmental factor obtain.
5. method according to claim 2, which is characterized in that the otherness based between upper and lower level cells calculates
The evaluation index of different brackets unit includes:
When considering areal variation, the evaluation index of superordinate elements is determined by following formula:
In formula, Θ is bottom-ranked unit set；rSaP CityFor superordinate elements carbon emission reduction high-volume, rSaP CounSubtract for the carbon of bottom-ranked unit
Discharge amount；
When not considering areal variation, the evaluation index of superordinate elements is determined by following formula:
In formula, rLoss CityFor the proportion of goods damageds of superordinate elements；rLoss CounIndicate the waste of bottom-ranked unit；rSup CounSuperordinate elements
The basic data of administrative bottom-ranked unit evaluation index；The basic data is the distribution network engineering investment effect assessment pre-established
Corresponding parameter in index set；
For consideration areal variation, and the evaluation index value of superordinate elements can not be directly determined using bottom-ranked unit index value
When, the evaluation index value of superordinate elements is determined by following formula:
In formula, { A+~E } indicates that six classes divided by economic development level are regional { A+, A, B, C, D, E }；WjFor jth class area
Weight.
6. the method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that described to be commented using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Principal Component Analysis determination
Estimate index index weights include: using the evaluation index value of different brackets unit as assessment object, using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and
After Principal Component Analysis calculates separately the index weights of assessment object, the final index weights of each evaluation index are calculated in proportion.
7. method as claimed in claim 6, which is characterized in that described to determine that each index weights include: using analytic hierarchy process (AHP)
Judgment matrix is established using expert method；
Solve the corresponding feature vector of maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix；
Each index weights are calculated according to feature vector.
8. the method for claim 7, which is characterized in that determine that the maximum eigenvalue of judgment matrix is corresponding by following formula
Feature vector:
Bv=λmaxv
Each index weights are determined by following formula:
In formula, wiFor i-th of index weights, viIt is characterized the i-th dimension component of vector v；vkFor k-th of feature vector, m is index
Number；λmaxWith ν respectively indicate judgment matrix B maximum eigenvalue and its corresponding feature vector.
9. the method for claim 7, which is characterized in that described to determine each index weights packet using Principal Component Analysis
It includes:
The primary information matrix pre-established is standardized, normalized matrix is obtained；
According to normalized matrix, each index correlation matrix is determined；
Characteristic value and its characteristic value contribution rate of accumulative total based on the index correlation matrix choose principal component, and by normalization
Reason determines each index weights.
10. method as claimed in claim 9, which is characterized in that determine each index correlation matrix by following formula:
In formula, i, j ∈ m, rijFor the degree of correlation of index i and index j, expression formula are as follows:
11. method as claimed in claim 10, which is characterized in that determine the characteristic value of index correlation matrix by following formula:
The characteristic value contribution rate of accumulative total of index correlation matrix is determined by following formula:
In formula, λiIt is characterized the descending vector set d=[λ being arranged to make up of value1, λ2, ┅, λm]TIn i-th of vector, ηi
For each characteristic value percentage, Σ ηlIt is characterized value contribution rate of accumulative total.
12. method as claimed in claim 11, which is characterized in that when cumulative proportion in ANOVA reaches threshold value predetermined
When, principal component is determined by following formula:
In formula, YkFor k-th of principal component, l is to choose principal component number, and m ' is the former input variable number that principal component includes, vki
It is characterized vector vkI-th dimension component；xiIt is characterized variable ZiVariable after standardization.
13. method as claimed in claim 12, which is characterized in that determine each index weights of normalized by following formula:
In formula,For each index weights respective value, wi' indicate to pass through each index weights of normalized.
14. method as claimed in claim 13, which is characterized in that described to be thrown based on distribution network construction scale, distribution network engineering
Money scale and economic development level factor, which are modified the index weights of evaluation index, includes:
Index weights are corrected by following formula:
In formula, 2p=1,2,3 be progressive three grades unit；wrThe weight in k class area where project, for reflecting economy
Development degree；IpFor binary variable, 1 is taken comprising such area, not comprising taking 0；IpFor p grades of distribution network engineering costs of investment, φ is
P+1 grades of administrative p grades of distribution network engineering set, for reflecting distribution network engineering scale of investment；lpFor the construction of p grades of distribution network engineerings at
This, Ψ is p+1 grades of administrative p grades of distribution network engineering construction set, for reflecting distribution network engineering construction scale.
15. method as claimed in claim 14, which is characterized in that determine distribution network engineering construction cost by following formula:
In formula, lgFor construction retrofit 10kV length, ldFor construction retrofit low-voltage circuit length, lmIt is long for platform area average low pressures route
Degree, NtAveragely match parameter for 10kV route.
16. the method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the index weights based on revised evaluation index, really
The credit comprehensive score of the fixed evaluation index, the evaluation result for obtaining distribution network engineering investment effect include:
All evaluation indexes are normalized, all indexs after normalized are carried out according to unified score standard
Scoring；The score that each single item index is chosen is added multiplied by corresponding comprehensive weight, obtains credit comprehensive score, it will be described
Credit comprehensive score is defined as the evaluation result of distribution network engineering investment effect.
17. the method described in claim 16, which is characterized in that determine credit comprehensive score by following formula:
In formula, C represents the credit comprehensive score score value of evaluation index；SrIndicate the index value through normalized, Smin、SmaxPoint
The minimum value and maximum value that Biao Shi not allow through evaluation stage where the project of normalized
18. the method as described in claim 1, which is characterized in that the evaluation result for obtaining distribution network engineering investment effect
Later further include: stability analysis is ranked up to the evaluation result of distribution network engineering investment effect, determines stability region, is wrapped
It includes:
The optimal value and most bad value for recording credit comprehensive score, according to the comparison section of the type evaluation index of evaluation index, and
All types of indexs are calculated in the fuzzy Pair Analysis for respectively comparing collection pair on section；
Evaluation of programme is defined for optimal evaluation system close to degree according to the fuzzy Pair Analysis, with described close to degree
It is criterion that it is better, which to be worth bigger power distribution network capital project integrated status, evaluates the superiority and inferiority situation of distribution network engineering investment effect；Base again
In the opposite unascertained information obtained in advance, analysis of stability is ranked up to the evaluation result of distribution network engineering investment effect
Analysis obtains stability region；
Wherein, the type of the evaluation index includes positive type index and negative sense type index.
19. method as claimed in claim 18, which is characterized in that determine the comparison section of evaluation index by following formula:
In formula, M1For positive type index, M2For negative sense type index, [vr, ur] and [ur, vr] respectively indicate M1And M2Comparison section,
ur、vrThe respectively corresponding index value of optimal case and Worst scheme.
20. method as claimed in claim 19, which is characterized in that determine that all types of indexs are respectively comparing section by following formula
The fuzzy Pair Analysis of upper collection pair:
μt=at+bti+ctj
In formula, { hkr, urIndicate that all types of indexs are respectively comparing collection pair, h on sectionkrIt is evaluation scheme in index mrOn take
Value, at、ctRespectively indicate the affirmation and negation degree close to optimal evaluation system U.
21. method as claimed in claim 20, which is characterized in that determine evaluation of programme for optimal evaluation system by following formula
Close to degree:
22. method as claimed in claim 18, which is characterized in that the evaluation result to distribution network engineering investment effect into
Row Sequence stability analysis, obtaining stability region includes:
Distribution network engineering predetermined is thrown in variation based on distrbution network investment effect evaluation result Δ i in [- 1,1]
The sequencing schemes for providing the corresponding scheme concentration of evaluation result of effect are ranked up stability analysis；
Calculate the motif ranking results for meeting constraint condition in sequencing schemes, the stability region for taking section union to be sorted.
23. method as claimed in claim 22, which is characterized in that as 0≤Δ i≤1, determined in sequencing schemes by following formula
Meet the motif ranking results of constraint condition:
Constraint condition are as follows:
cpak-ckap> (ckbp-cpbk)Δi；
If ckbp-cpbk≤ 0, there is Δ i ∈ [0,1]；
If ckbp-cpbk> 0, has
As -1≤Δ i < 0, the motif ranking results for meeting constraint condition in sequencing schemes are determined by following formula:
Constraint condition are as follows:
If akbp-apbk>=0, have Δ i ∈ [- 1,0)；
If akbp-apbk< 0, has
In formula, SkFor k-th of sequencing schemes of Sequence stability analysis scheme collection S,Sequencing schemes S when for Δ i ≠ 0kSequence
Ranking；It indicatesAdjacent sequencing schemes,And cpIndicate closeAffirmation and negation degree, akAnd ckIt indicates
It is closeAffirmation and negation degree.
24. a kind of assessment system of distribution network engineering investment effect, which is characterized in that the system comprises:
Determination unit, for being thrown based on the otherness between each level cells of distribution network engineering and the distribution network engineering pre-established
Achievement evaluation index set is provided, determines current power distribution network construction investment achievement evaluation index；
Amending unit, for determining the index weights of the evaluation index, and base using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and Principal Component Analysis
It is carried out in the index weights of distribution network construction scale, distribution network engineering scale of investment and economic development level factor to evaluation index
Amendment；
Assessment unit determines that the credit of the evaluation index is comprehensive for the index weights based on the revised evaluation index
Scoring is closed, the evaluation result of distribution network engineering investment effect is obtained.
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