CN111178676A - Power distribution network project investment assessment method and system - Google Patents
Power distribution network project investment assessment method and system Download PDFInfo
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- CN111178676A CN111178676A CN201911233697.6A CN201911233697A CN111178676A CN 111178676 A CN111178676 A CN 111178676A CN 201911233697 A CN201911233697 A CN 201911233697A CN 111178676 A CN111178676 A CN 111178676A
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Abstract
The invention discloses a power distribution network project investment evaluation method and system, which are characterized in that basic data related to power distribution network project investment are collected and sorted, a power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model is constructed according to preset dimensionality, the sorted basic data are brought into the power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model, and a power distribution network project investment evaluation result is calculated, so that the power distribution network investment condition can be accurately reflected from comprehensive multi-dimensional data, and data support is provided for power distribution network investment.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of investment analysis of a power distribution network, in particular to a method and a system for evaluating investment of a power distribution network project.
Background
The power distribution network is an important public infrastructure for national economy and social development, at present, the domestic power distribution network project investment evaluation focuses on the aspects of safety and reliability of the power distribution network, the project investment indexes are less concerned, particularly, the power distribution network project investment is large in recent years, after partial power distribution network equipment is put into operation, the load rate and the maximum load utilization hours are not high, the equipment is in a light and no-load state, and the phenomenon of heavy overload of partial equipment is not effectively solved, so that the project investment evaluation in the early stage is required;
however, the existing power distribution network project investment evaluation is centrally embodied in single index evaluation, the power distribution network project investment evaluation lacks objective and reasonable quantitative basis and deep analysis, the power distribution network investment condition cannot be accurately reflected, and data support is difficult to provide for power distribution network investment.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of this, the present invention provides a method and a system for evaluating investment in power distribution network projects, so as to provide data support for investment in power distribution networks.
The invention provides a power distribution network project investment evaluation method based on the above purpose, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring basic data related to the project investment of the power distribution network;
combing the acquired basic data;
according to the preset dimensionality, a power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model is constructed;
and substituting the combed basic data into the constructed power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model, and calculating a power distribution network project investment evaluation result.
Preferably, the base data includes: acquiring and scheduling equipment operation data by using electricity information; electricity consumption client work order data; the power management system equipment files and parameter data; the marketing system measures points, meters and consumer file data; power planning information system power grid development diagnosis data; and line loss data of the integrated line loss equipment.
Preferably, when the power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model is constructed, the method further comprises the following steps:
the power distribution network project investment analysis comprehensive evaluation model comprises a power distribution transformer investment evaluation model and/or a power distribution line investment evaluation model.
Preferably, the distribution transformer investment evaluation model is:
the distribution transformer investment evaluation calculation model meets the constraint conditions:
wherein Y is the total investment score of the distribution transformer, Yi1Evaluating the index detail score, k, for a distribution transformeri1evaluating the fine-term weight, alpha, of an index for a distribution transformeri2estimating a dimensional score, beta, for a distribution transformeri2Evaluation of the dimensional weight, i, for distribution transformers1Detailed numbering of evaluation indices for distribution transformers, i2The dimension numbers are evaluated for distribution transformers.
Preferably, the distribution line investment evaluation model is as follows:
the distribution line investment evaluation model meets the constraint conditions:
in the formula, Y1The total investment score of the distribution line is obtained,
the index detail score is evaluated for the distribution line,
evaluating the fine weights of the indexes for the distribution lines,
the dimensional score is evaluated for the distribution line,
evaluating the dimensional weights, i, for distribution lines3Number of evaluation index details for distribution line, i4Dimension numbering is evaluated for distribution lines.
Preferably, when a distribution transformer and a distribution line in a distribution network invest simultaneously, the investment evaluation model of the distribution network project may be:
in the formula, I increases the power selling income of the power grid assets for the project, and Yi5Evaluating the index detail score for the project, ki5evaluating the fine weights of the indicators, alpha, for the projecti6evaluating a one-dimensional score, β, for a projecti6Evaluating the one-dimensional weight for the project, C1Total capital cost of project base, C2Total cost of operation and maintenance after project commissioning, C3For the total loss cost of the equipment after the project is put into operation, CNWhich is the total cost of the project.
Preferably, when the power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model is constructed according to preset dimensions, the preset dimensions include an implementation process dimension, a social benefit dimension, an economic benefit dimension and a safety benefit dimension, and the method further includes:
and (3) adopting an analytic hierarchy process, carrying out evaluation layer by layer according to all dimensions, and constructing a comprehensive evaluation model for the investment analysis of the power distribution network project by layer, summarizing and collecting.
An investment assessment system for a power distribution network project, comprising:
the data acquisition unit is used for acquiring basic data related to the project investment of the power distribution network;
the data processing unit is used for combing basic data related to the project investment of the power distribution network to obtain combed basic data;
the model construction unit is used for developing each dimension layer by layer according to the preset dimension, and collecting and integrating the dimensions layer by layer into a power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model;
and the evaluation unit is used for substituting the combed basic data into a power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model and calculating a power distribution network project investment evaluation result.
Preferably, the power distribution network project investment analysis comprehensive evaluation model comprises a power distribution transformer investment evaluation model and/or a power distribution line investment evaluation model.
Preferably, the preset dimensions include an implementation process dimension, a social benefit dimension, an economic benefit dimension, and a safety benefit dimension.
From the above, the method and the system for evaluating the investment of the power distribution network project, provided by the invention, have the advantages that the basic data related to the investment of the power distribution network project are collected, the data are sorted, the data are developed layer by adopting an analytic hierarchy process according to the preset dimensionality, the data are collected and collected into the comprehensive evaluation model of the power distribution network project analysis in a layering and gathering mode, the sorted basic data are brought into the comprehensive evaluation model of the power distribution network project analysis, the evaluation result of the investment of the power distribution network project is calculated, the investment condition of the power distribution network can be accurately reflected from the comprehensive multidimensional data, and the data support is provided.
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Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a power distribution network project investment evaluation method according to an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is described in further detail below with reference to specific embodiments and the accompanying drawings.
It should be noted that all expressions using "first" and "second" in the embodiments of the present invention are used for distinguishing two entities with the same name but different names or different parameters, and it should be noted that "first" and "second" are merely for convenience of description and should not be construed as limitations of the embodiments of the present invention, which are not described in any more detail in the following embodiments.
A power distribution network project investment assessment method comprises the following steps:
s101, collecting basic data related to the investment of a power distribution network project;
for example, the basic data may be obtained by using a system, work order data, system archive, and the like.
S102, combing the acquired basic data;
for example, data combing includes interpolating missing values and removing redundant data.
S103, constructing a power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model according to a preset dimension;
for example, the preset dimensions can be four dimensions of project implementation process evaluation, project social benefit evaluation, project economic benefit evaluation and project safety benefit evaluation, different weights are given to elements in the four dimensions, and a differentiated power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model is constructed.
And S104, substituting the combed basic data into the constructed power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model, and calculating a power distribution network project investment evaluation result.
According to the power distribution network project investment evaluation method and system, basic data related to power distribution network project investment are collected, the data are sorted, a power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model is built according to preset dimensionality, the sorted basic data are brought into the power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model, power distribution network project investment evaluation results are calculated, power distribution network investment conditions can be accurately reflected from comprehensive multi-dimensional data, and data support is provided for power distribution network investment.
As an implementation manner, when acquiring basic data related to investment of a power distribution network project, the basic data includes: acquiring and scheduling equipment operation data by using electricity information; customer work order data for electricity consumption; the power management system equipment files and parameter data; metering points, meters and electricity customer file data of the marketing system; power planning information system power grid development diagnosis data; and line loss data of the integrated line loss equipment.
And preparing for constructing a model and analyzing the investment of the power distribution network project by collecting the basic data.
As an implementation manner, when the power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model is constructed, the power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model includes a power distribution transformer investment evaluation model and/or a power distribution line investment evaluation model.
When only distribution transformer investment is involved in a power distribution network project, the power distribution network project analysis and comprehensive evaluation model can only comprise a distribution transformer investment evaluation model, when only distribution line investment is involved in the power distribution network project, the power distribution network project analysis and comprehensive evaluation model can only comprise a distribution line investment evaluation model, and when both distribution transformer investment and distribution line investment are involved in the power distribution network project, the power distribution network project analysis and comprehensive evaluation model comprises a distribution transformer investment evaluation model and a distribution line investment evaluation model.
As an embodiment, the investment evaluation model of the distribution transformer is
Distribution transformer investment evaluation model accords with constraint conditions
Wherein Y is the total investment score of the distribution transformer, Yi1Evaluating the index detail score, k, for a distribution transformeri1evaluating the fine-term weight, alpha, of an index for a distribution transformeri2estimating a dimensional score, beta, for a distribution transformeri2Evaluation of the dimensional weight, i, for distribution transformers1And evaluating the index detailed item number for the distribution transformer, wherein i2 is the evaluation dimension number of the distribution transformer.
For example, the distribution transformer investment evaluation model includes four dimensions of implementation process, social benefit, economic benefit and safety benefit, the index detail items in each dimension are shown in table 1, the model fully considers the difference generated in each evaluation index value interval caused by the difference of equipment capacity, the foundation before equipment modification and the like and the weight difference of different dimensions of equipment new construction and modification in the design process, so that the weight values can be designed according to actual conditions in different dimensions. In the safety benefit, the maximum load rate and the average load rate of the distribution transformer need to be combined with the economic operation standard of the distribution transformer of a company when grading, and the grading belongs to the low-grade category under the conditions that the equipment is in light no load and heavy overload. The model is suitable for the equipment development of transverse benchmarking under the same basic conditions.
TABLE 1
When the average outage time index is reduced in the social benefit dimension is evaluated, the average outage time calculation model can be
In the formula, TavAverage annual power failure time min, C for usersiNumber of single power-off users, TiFor the user with single power failure, the time length min, CAThe total number of users in the power supply area.
As an embodiment, the distribution line investment evaluation model is
The distribution line investment evaluation model accords with the constraint condition
In the formula, Y1The total investment score of the distribution line is obtained,
the index detail score is evaluated for the distribution line,
evaluating the fine weights of the indexes for the distribution lines,
the dimensional score is evaluated for the distribution line,
evaluating the dimensional weights, i, for distribution lines3Number of evaluation index details for distribution line, i4Dimension numbering is evaluated for distribution lines.
For example, the distribution line investment evaluation model includes four dimensions of implementation process, social benefit, economic benefit and safety benefit, the index details in each dimension are shown in table 2, the model fully considers the factors of voltage level, capacity, difference of line diameter and the like in the design process, the weight values can be designed according to actual conditions in different dimensions, and the weight values of relevant indexes can be newly added or modified by each index detail. In the safety benefit, the maximum load rate and the average load rate of the line need to be combined with the economic operation standard of the company line when the line is graded, and the grading belongs to the low grading category under the conditions that the equipment is in light empty load and heavy overload. The model is suitable for the equipment development of transverse benchmarking under the same basic conditions.
TABLE 2
For example, the calculation model of the average power supply radius qualification rate in the social benefit dimension can be
Wherein phi is the average power supply radius qualification rate of the distribution line, LiFor distribution lines with a qualified mean supply radius, LAAnd newly increasing the total number of the modified distribution lines for the project.
As an embodiment, when a distribution transformer and a distribution line in a distribution network invest simultaneously, the investment evaluation model of the distribution network project may be:
in the formula, I increases the power selling income of the power grid assets for the project, and Yi5Evaluating the index detail score for the project, ki5evaluating the fine weights of the indicators, alpha, for the projecti6evaluating a one-dimensional score, β, for a projecti6Evaluating the one-dimensional weight for the project, C1Total capital cost of project base, C2Total cost of operation and maintenance after project commissioning, C3For the total loss cost of the equipment after the project is put into operation, CNWhich is the total cost of the project.
The distribution transformer and the distribution line in the power distribution network are simultaneously invested more in scenes such as newly-built industrial parks, large-scale factories, new rural construction and the like, and because the project scale is large, the period is long, the equipment is more, the index requirements of the project construction process such as normalization, safety, timeliness, power supply reliability and the like are higher, and the related indexes of the project in the evaluation model design are relatively complex, the invention provides a power distribution network project investment evaluation model which is suitable for simultaneously investing the distribution transformer and the distribution line, for example, the model comprises four dimensions of implementation process, social benefit, economic benefit and safety benefit, the fine index items in each dimension are shown in a table 3, the factors of urban network, rural network, region and the like are fully considered in the design process of the model, and the difference capital, progress and safety importance of the project are also considered, the weight of the dimension index can be properly adjusted according to the actual condition of the project, and the project pays more attention to the unit investment operation yield and the power supply reliability. The model is suitable for project development transverse benchmarking under the same basic condition.
TABLE 3
Due to the fact that project indexes are complex and multiple consideration factors are considered, the mode of combining fuzzy evaluation and accurate evaluation can be considered for the project investment evaluation, and typical indexes or partial dimension indexes can be selected for the fuzzy evaluation to evaluate.
As an implementation manner, when a power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model is constructed according to preset dimensions, the preset dimensions include an implementation process dimension, a social benefit dimension, an economic benefit dimension and a safety benefit dimension, and the method further includes:
and (3) adopting an analytic hierarchy process, carrying out evaluation layer by layer according to all dimensions, and constructing a comprehensive evaluation model for the investment analysis of the power distribution network project by layer, summarizing and collecting.
For example, the implementation process is divided into early stage decision, construction preparation, construction management and completion acceptance according to the whole project process; the social benefits are mainly evaluated through customer service; the economic benefit is evaluated through the electricity selling benefit and the loss benefit; the safety benefit is evaluated through the quality of electric energy and the reliability of power supply.
AHP is The analytic hierarchy process, formally proposed by The American operational scientist Thomas Sedi in The mid-70 20 th century. The method is a systematic and hierarchical analysis method combining qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis.
Due to its utility and effectiveness in handling complex decision-making problems, it is rapidly gaining attention worldwide. Its application has been spread across the fields of economic planning and management, energy policy and distribution, behavioral science, military command, transportation, agriculture, education, talents, medical treatment, and the environment.
The invention also provides a power distribution network project investment evaluation system which comprises a data acquisition unit, a data processing unit, a model construction unit and an evaluation unit, wherein the data acquisition unit is used for acquiring basic data related to power distribution network project investment, the data processing unit is used for combing the basic data related to the power distribution network project investment to obtain the combed basic data, the model component unit is used for constructing a power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model according to a preset dimension, and the evaluation unit is used for substituting the combed basic data into the power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model to calculate a power distribution network project investment evaluation result.
The power distribution network project investment analysis comprehensive evaluation model comprises a power distribution transformer investment evaluation model and/or a power distribution line investment evaluation model.
As an implementation manner, the preset dimensions include an implementation process dimension, a social benefit dimension, an economic benefit dimension, and a safety benefit dimension.
Those of ordinary skill in the art will understand that: the discussion of any embodiment above is meant to be exemplary only, and is not intended to intimate that the scope of the disclosure, including the claims, is limited to these examples; within the framework of the invention, also technical features in the above embodiments or in different embodiments may be combined, steps may be implemented in any order, and there are many other variations of the different aspects of the invention as described above, which are not provided in detail for the sake of brevity.
While the present invention has been described in conjunction with specific embodiments thereof, many alternatives, modifications, and variations of these embodiments will be apparent to those skilled in the art in light of the foregoing description. For example, other memory architectures, such as Dynamic RAM (DRAM), may use the discussed embodiments.
The embodiments of the invention are intended to embrace all such alterations, modifications and variations that fall within the broad scope of the appended claims. Therefore, any omissions, modifications, substitutions, improvements and the like that may be made without departing from the spirit and principles of the invention are intended to be included within the scope of the invention.
Claims (10)
1. A power distribution network project investment assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring basic data related to the project investment of the power distribution network;
combing the acquired basic data;
according to the preset dimensionality, a power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model is constructed;
and substituting the combed basic data into the constructed power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model, and calculating a power distribution network project investment evaluation result.
2. The method for evaluating investment in power distribution network projects according to claim 1, wherein when collecting basic data related to investment in power distribution network projects, the basic data comprises: acquiring and scheduling equipment operation data by using electricity information; customer work order data for electricity consumption; the power management system equipment files and parameter data; metering points, meters and electricity customer file data of the marketing system; power planning information system power grid development diagnosis data; and line loss data of the integrated line loss equipment.
3. The power distribution network project investment evaluation method according to claim 1, wherein when a power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model is constructed, the method further comprises:
the power distribution network project investment analysis comprehensive evaluation model comprises a power distribution transformer investment evaluation model and/or a power distribution line investment evaluation model.
4. The power distribution network project investment assessment method according to claim 3, wherein the power distribution transformer investment assessment model is:
the distribution transformer investment evaluation calculation model meets the constraint conditions:
in the formula, Y is the total investment score of the distribution transformer,
the index detail score is evaluated for the distribution transformer,
the fine weights of the metrics are evaluated for the distribution transformer,
the dimensional score is evaluated for the distribution transformer,
estimating a dimensional weight, i, for a distribution transformer1Detailed numbering of evaluation indices for distribution transformers, i2The dimension numbers are evaluated for distribution transformers.
5. The power distribution network project investment assessment method according to claim 3, wherein the power distribution line investment assessment model is:
the distribution line investment evaluation model meets the constraint conditions:
in the formula, Y1The total investment score of the distribution line is obtained,
the index detail score is evaluated for the distribution line,
evaluating the fine weights of the indexes for the distribution lines,
the dimensional score is evaluated for the distribution line,
evaluation of the dimensional weights, i, for distribution lines3Number of evaluation index details for distribution line, i4The dimension numbers are evaluated for the distribution lines.
6. The method for evaluating investment in power distribution network projects according to claim 3, wherein when investment in distribution transformers and distribution lines in the power distribution network is simultaneously made, the power distribution network project investment evaluation model is:
in the formula, I increases the power selling income of the power grid assets for the project,
the index detail score is evaluated for the item,
the fine weights of the indicators are evaluated for the project,
a one-dimensional score is evaluated for the project,
evaluating the one-dimensional weight for the project, C1Total capital cost of project base, C2Total cost of operation and maintenance after project commissioning, C3For the total loss cost of the equipment after the project is put into operation, CNWhich is the total cost of the project.
7. The power distribution network project investment evaluation method according to any one of claims 1 to 6, wherein when a power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model is constructed according to preset dimensions, the preset dimensions include an implementation process dimension, a social benefit dimension, an economic benefit dimension and a safety benefit dimension, and the method further comprises:
and (3) adopting an analytic hierarchy process, carrying out evaluation layer by layer according to all dimensions, and constructing a comprehensive evaluation model for the investment analysis of the power distribution network project by layer, summarizing and collecting.
8. An investment evaluation system for a power distribution network project, comprising:
the data acquisition unit is used for acquiring basic data related to the project investment of the power distribution network;
the data processing unit is used for combing basic data related to the project investment of the power distribution network to obtain the combed basic data;
the model construction unit is used for developing each dimension layer by layer according to the preset dimension, and summarizing and collecting the dimensions layer by layer to form a power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model;
and the evaluation unit is used for substituting the combed basic data into a power distribution network project analysis comprehensive evaluation model and calculating a power distribution network project investment evaluation result.
9. The power distribution network project investment evaluation system of claim 8, wherein the power distribution network project investment analysis integrated evaluation model comprises a distribution transformer investment evaluation model and/or a distribution line investment evaluation model.
10. The power distribution network project investment evaluation system of claim 8, wherein the predetermined dimensions include an implementation process dimension, a social benefit dimension, an economic benefit dimension, and a safety benefit dimension.
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| CN115797106A (en) * | 2023-02-06 | 2023-03-14 | 广东电网有限责任公司中山供电局 | Distribution network infrastructure scheme automatic generation method, device, equipment and readable storage medium |
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| CN110232490A (en) * | 2019-03-07 | 2019-09-13 | 中国电力科学研究院有限公司 | A kind of appraisal procedure and system of distribution network engineering investment effect |
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| CN115797106A (en) * | 2023-02-06 | 2023-03-14 | 广东电网有限责任公司中山供电局 | Distribution network infrastructure scheme automatic generation method, device, equipment and readable storage medium |
| CN115797106B (en) * | 2023-02-06 | 2023-05-16 | 广东电网有限责任公司中山供电局 | Automatic generation method, device and equipment for distribution network infrastructure scheme and readable storage medium |
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Application publication date: 20200519 |