CN113380023B - A parking demand forecasting method for mixed land sharing based on parking space selection behavior - Google Patents

A parking demand forecasting method for mixed land sharing based on parking space selection behavior Download PDF

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CN113380023B
CN113380023B CN202110560705.9A CN202110560705A CN113380023B CN 113380023 B CN113380023 B CN 113380023B CN 202110560705 A CN202110560705 A CN 202110560705A CN 113380023 B CN113380023 B CN 113380023B
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周竹萍
梅亚岚
裘梦琪
刘博闻
唐旭
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Abstract

本发明涉及一种基于泊位选择行为的混合用地共享停车需求预测方法，该方法通过对混合用地中各用地类型的停车需求预测，将停车需求与其停车容量进行比较，将超过停车容量的部分定义为共享停车需求量；根据停车者的共享停车选择行为建立广义成本函数，各停车需求者以停车成本最小对各共享停车场选择；统计各停车需求者选择前后的停车状况，得到共享停车环境下各用地停车需求状况及共享停车过程中的停车需求转移量。本发明针对过饱和的停车需求量，可为停车泊位配建、增设和布设停车泊位及高峰时段停车诱导方案提供依据。

Figure 202110560705

The invention relates to a parking demand prediction method for mixed land use based on parking space selection behavior. The method compares the parking demand with its parking capacity by predicting the parking demand of each land use type in the mixed land, and defines the part exceeding the parking capacity as Shared parking demand; establish a generalized cost function according to the shared parking selection behavior of the parking users, and each parking demander chooses each shared parking lot with the minimum parking cost; count the parking conditions before and after each parking demander chooses, and obtain each parking demand under the shared parking environment. The parking demand of the land and the transfer of parking demand in the process of shared parking. Aiming at the over-saturated parking demand, the invention can provide the basis for the construction, addition and arrangement of parking berths and the parking induction scheme during peak hours.

Figure 202110560705

Description

一种基于泊位选择行为的混合用地共享停车需求预测方法A parking demand forecasting method for mixed land sharing based on parking space selection behavior

技术领域technical field

本发明涉及静态交通、停车泊位配建技术领域，具体而言涉及一种基于泊位选择行为的混合用地共享停车需求预测方法。The invention relates to the technical field of static traffic and parking space allocation, in particular to a mixed-use shared parking demand prediction method based on parking space selection behavior.

背景技术Background technique

随着机动化水平的提高，机动车保有量持续上涨，停车资源已满足不了现有的停车需求，停车也逐渐成为了出行需要解决的难题。在解决“停车难”问题上，现阶段主要以修建停车场增加停车位为主，但这并不能长期有效的解决问题，应充分利用现有停车资源，提高停车泊位利用率。With the improvement of motorization level, the number of motor vehicles continues to rise, parking resources can no longer meet the existing parking demand, and parking has gradually become a problem that needs to be solved in travel. In solving the problem of "difficult parking", the current stage is mainly to build parking lots to increase parking spaces, but this cannot effectively solve the problem in the long term. Existing parking resources should be fully utilized to improve the utilization rate of parking spaces.

由于不同用地性质的停车场之间的停车特性存在差异，停车需求可以得到互补，因此不同用地性质停车场之间的共享停车是解决“停车难”问题的新想法。通过共享停车的方式，将过饱和的停车需求分散至周边空闲泊位中，盘活闲置的停车资源，提高泊位利用率。Due to the differences in parking characteristics between parking lots with different land uses, the parking needs can be complemented. Therefore, shared parking between parking lots with different land uses is a new idea to solve the problem of "difficult parking". Through shared parking, the over-saturated parking demand is distributed to the surrounding idle parking spaces, the idle parking resources are activated, and the berth utilization rate is improved.

现有的一些论文提出了共享停车需求预测相关方法，例如文献(徐志豪,马健霄.基于行为选择特性的泊位共享需求预测[J].物流科技,2019,42(07):27-32.)对共享停车泊位选择行为展开问卷调查，通过对调查数据分析，得到三类用地停车者的共享泊位选择概率，利用选择概率对停车生成率法修正，得到共享停车需求预测结果。该方法在共享停车需求预测方向的相关研究中较为新颖，但仍存在不少问题：Some existing papers have proposed methods for forecasting demand for shared parking, such as literature (Xu Zhihao, Ma Jianxiao. Prediction of berth sharing demand based on behavioral selection characteristics [J]. Logistics Technology, 2019, 42(07): 27-32.) on A questionnaire survey was carried out on the selection behavior of shared parking spaces. Through the analysis of the survey data, the shared parking space selection probability of three types of land parkers was obtained, and the parking generation rate method was modified by the selection probability to obtain the shared parking demand prediction result. This method is relatively new in the related research on the direction of shared parking demand forecasting, but there are still many problems:

(1)对于停车者共享停车选择，该论文采用问卷调查方式，由于受用地类型限制，该方法需对混合用地中每种用地类型停车者停车选择行为调查，所需数据量较大且后期处理复杂。(1) For the shared parking choices of parkers, this paper adopts a questionnaire survey method. Due to the limitation of land use types, this method needs to investigate the parking choice behavior of parkers of each land use type in mixed land use, which requires a large amount of data and post-processing. complex.

(2)对于共享停车需求预测，该论文利用停车者共享停车选择概率对停车生成率法修正，得到混合用地在共享停车环境下各用地类型的停车需求。但在实际停车环境中，共享停车需求通常出现在停车者目的地停车场无空闲停车位的情况下，而在停车者目的地停车场有空闲停车位时，停车者正常停车。(2) For the prediction of shared parking demand, this paper uses the parking generation rate method to modify the parking generation rate method by using the shared parking selection probability of parkers, and obtains the parking demand of each land type of mixed land in the shared parking environment. However, in the actual parking environment, the demand for shared parking usually occurs when there is no vacant parking space in the destination parking lot of the parker, and when there is an vacant parking space in the destination parking lot of the parker, the parker parks normally.

发明内容SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

本发明的目的在于提供一种基于泊位选择行为的混合用地共享停车需求预测方法，从而更准确地预测不同用地性质间共享停车的停车需求，合理配置停车泊位，提高现有停车设施的利用率。The purpose of the present invention is to provide a mixed-use parking demand prediction method based on parking space selection behavior, so as to more accurately predict the parking needs of shared parking between different land uses, reasonably allocate parking spaces, and improve the utilization rate of existing parking facilities.

实现本发明目的的技术解决方案为：一种基于泊位选择行为的混合用地共享停车需求预测方法，包括以下步骤：The technical solution for realizing the object of the present invention is: a method for predicting the parking demand of mixed-use land based on parking space selection behavior, comprising the following steps:

步骤1、确定混合用地内用地类型及各用地类型的土地利用指标；Step 1. Determine the land use types in the mixed land and the land use indicators of each land use type;

步骤2、利用停车生成率法对单一用地停车需求预测，计算各用地类型各时段停车需求；Step 2. Use the parking generation rate method to predict the parking demand of a single land, and calculate the parking demand of each land type and each time period;

步骤3、将各用地类型各时段停车需求与用地停车容量对比，确定共享停车需求量；Step 3. Compare the parking demand of each land use type and each time period with the parking capacity of the land use to determine the shared parking demand;

步骤4、根据停车者共享泊位选择行为建立广义成本函数；Step 4. Establish a generalized cost function according to the parking space sharing behavior of parking people;

步骤5、计算各共享停车需求者选择周边空闲泊位的停车成本，按停车成本最小选择停车位；Step 5. Calculate the parking cost for each shared parking demander to select the surrounding free parking spaces, and select the parking space according to the minimum parking cost;

步骤6、统计各共享停车需求者选择情况，得到共享停车下各用地类型停车需求量及共享停车需求转移量。Step 6: Count the selection of each shared parking demander, and obtain the parking demand of each land use type and the shared parking demand transfer amount under the shared parking.

进一步地，步骤1中，确定混合用地内用地类型及各用地类型的土地利用指标，具体为：Further, in step 1, the land use types in the mixed land and the land use indicators of each land use type are determined, specifically:

用地类型分为居住用地、公共管理与公共服务用地、商业服务业设施用地、工业用地、绿地与广场用地、公用设施用地、道路与交通设施用地、物流仓储用地；The land use types are divided into residential land, public management and public service land, commercial service facility land, industrial land, green space and square land, public utility land, road and transportation facility land, and logistics storage land;

居住用地分为一类居住用地、二类居住用地、三类居住用地；Residential land is divided into first-class residential land, second-class residential land, and third-class residential land;

公共管理与公共服务用地分为行政办公用地、文化设施用地、教育科研用地、体育用地、医疗卫生用地、社会福利设施用地、文物古迹用地、外事用地、宗教设施用地；Land for public management and public services is divided into administrative office land, cultural facility land, education and scientific research land, sports land, medical and health land, social welfare facility land, cultural relics and historic sites, foreign affairs land, and religious facilities land;

商业服务业设施用地分为商业设施用地、商务设施用地、娱乐康体设施用地、公共设施营业网点用地、其他服务设施用地；Commercial service industry facility land is divided into commercial facility land, business facility land, entertainment and sports facility land, public facility business network land, and other service facility land;

工业用地分为一类工业用地、二类工业用地、三类工业用地；Industrial land is divided into first-class industrial land, second-class industrial land, and third-class industrial land;

绿地与广场用地分为公园绿地、防护绿地、广场用地；Green space and square land are divided into park green space, protective green space and square land;

公用设施用地分为供应设施用地、环境设施用地、安全设施用地、其它公用设施用地；Land for public facilities is divided into land for supply facilities, land for environmental facilities, land for safety facilities, and land for other public facilities;

道路与交通设施用地分为城市道路用地、城市轨道交通用地、交通枢纽用地、交通场站用地、其他交通设施用地；The land for roads and transportation facilities is divided into urban road land, urban rail transit land, transportation hub land, transportation station land, and other transportation facilities land;

物流仓储用地分为一类物流仓储用地、二类物流仓储用地、三类物流仓储用地。The logistics warehousing land is divided into the first-class logistics warehousing land, the second-class logistics warehousing land, and the third-class logistics warehousing land.

进一步地，步骤2中，利用停车生成率法对单一用地停车需求预测，计算各用地类型各时段停车需求，具体为：Further, in step 2, use the parking generation rate method to predict the parking demand of a single land, and calculate the parking demand of each land type and each time period, specifically:

根据混合用地类型及土地利用指标，根据停车生成率模型计算各用地停车需求量，计算公式为：According to the mixed land type and land use index, the parking demand of each land is calculated according to the parking generation rate model. The calculation formula is:

Figure BDA0003078851060000031
Figure BDA0003078851060000031

其中，

Figure BDA0003078851060000032
为用地i在t时段的停车需求量；Si为用地i的土地利用指标；
Figure BDA0003078851060000033
为用地i在t时段的停车生成率。in,
Figure BDA0003078851060000032
is the parking demand of land i in period t; S i is the land use index of land i;
Figure BDA0003078851060000033
is the parking generation rate of land i in time period t.

进一步地，步骤3中，将各用地类型各时段停车需求与用地停车容量对比，确定共享停车需求量，具体如下：Further, in step 3, the parking demand of each land use type and each time period is compared with the parking capacity of the land use to determine the shared parking demand, as follows:

当停车需求量小于等于用地停车容量时，则没有共享停车需求量；当停车需求量大于用地停车容量时，则有共享停车需求量，且共享停车需求量为超出用地停车容量的部分，计算公式为：When the parking demand is less than or equal to the parking capacity of the land, there is no demand for shared parking; when the demand for parking is greater than the parking capacity of the land, there is a demand for shared parking, and the demand for shared parking is the part that exceeds the parking capacity of the land, the calculation formula for:

Figure BDA0003078851060000034
Figure BDA0003078851060000034

其中，Vi为用地i停车容量，

Figure BDA0003078851060000035
为用地i在t时段的共享停车需求量；Among them, V i is the parking capacity of land i,
Figure BDA0003078851060000035
is the demand for shared parking of land i in time period t;

共享停车总需求量：

Figure BDA0003078851060000036
Total demand for shared parking:
Figure BDA0003078851060000036

进一步地，步骤4中，根据停车者共享泊位选择行为建立广义成本函数，具体如下：Further, in step 4, a generalized cost function is established according to the parking space sharing behavior of the parkers, and the details are as follows:

停车者在共享泊位选择的过程中停车成本分为四个部分：①停车费用；②前往共享停车场的绕行时间成本；③停车场内空闲停车位的巡航时间成本；④从共享停车场前往目的地的步行成本；计算公式为：In the process of choosing a shared parking space, the parking cost is divided into four parts: ①Parking fee; ②Detour time cost to the shared parking lot; ③Cruising time cost of free parking spaces in the parking lot; ④Going from the shared parking lot The walking cost of the destination; calculated as:

Figure BDA0003078851060000037
Figure BDA0003078851060000037

其中，

Figure BDA0003078851060000038
为第n个共享停车者去用地j共享停车总成本；PCj为用地j的停车费用；
Figure BDA0003078851060000039
为第n个共享停车者去用地j停车的绕行时间成本；
Figure BDA00030788510600000310
为第n个共享停车者在用地j寻找停车位的时间成本；
Figure BDA00030788510600000311
为第n个共享停车者从用地j去目的地的步行时间成本；in,
Figure BDA0003078851060000038
is the total cost of shared parking for the nth shared parking person to use land j; PC j is the parking fee of land j;
Figure BDA0003078851060000039
The detour time cost for the nth shared parker to park on site j;
Figure BDA00030788510600000310
The time cost of finding a parking space on site j for the n-th shared parker;
Figure BDA00030788510600000311
is the walking time cost of the nth shared parking person from site j to the destination;

Figure BDA00030788510600000312
Figure BDA00030788510600000312

其中，

Figure BDA00030788510600000313
为第n个共享停车者去用地j停车的绕行距离；Vdrive为车辆绕行的平均速度；VOT为时间价值系数；in,
Figure BDA00030788510600000313
is the detour distance for the nth shared parker to park at site j; V drive is the average speed of the vehicle detour; VOT is the time value coefficient;

Figure BDA0003078851060000041
Figure BDA0003078851060000041

其中，α为最小寻位时间；Vj为用地j停车容量；

Figure BDA0003078851060000042
为第n共享停车者停车时用地j内停车数量；Among them, α is the minimum search time; V j is the parking capacity of land j;
Figure BDA0003078851060000042
is the number of parking spaces in land j when the nth shared parking person parks;

Figure BDA0003078851060000043
Figure BDA0003078851060000043

其中，

Figure BDA0003078851060000044
为第n个共享停车者从用地j去目的地的步行距离；Vwalk为停车者的平均步行速度。in,
Figure BDA0003078851060000044
is the walking distance of the nth shared parker from site j to the destination; V walk is the average walking speed of the parker.

进一步地，步骤5中，计算各共享停车需求者选择周边空闲泊位的停车成本，按停车成本最小选择停车位，具体步骤如下：Further, in step 5, calculate the parking cost for each shared parking demander to select the surrounding free parking space, and select the parking space according to the minimum parking cost. The specific steps are as follows:

(1)判断各用地停车场停车状况，输入共享停车需求量：①当停车需求量大于或等于停车容量时，则为目的地停车场，停车场内停车数量与停车容量相等；②若停车需求量小于停车容量，则为共享停车场，停车场内停车数量与停车需求量相等；(1) Judging the parking status of each parking lot, input the demand for shared parking: ① When the demand for parking is greater than or equal to the parking capacity, it is the destination parking lot, and the number of parking spaces in the parking lot is equal to the parking capacity; ② If the demand for parking is equal to the parking capacity If the amount is less than the parking capacity, it is a shared parking lot, and the number of parking spaces in the parking lot is equal to the parking demand;

(2)判断是否有共享停车需求量，若共享停车总需求量N＞0，令n＝1，共享停车者开始共享泊位选择；若共享停车总需求量N＝0，则结束，输出停车场数据；(2) Determine whether there is a demand for shared parking. If the total demand for shared parking is N>0, let n=1, and the shared parking person starts to choose a shared parking space; if the total demand for shared parking is N=0, it ends, and the parking lot is output. data;

(3)计算共享停车需求者与各共享停车场的停车成本；(3) Calculate the parking cost of the shared parking demander and each shared parking lot;

(4)比较各停车场停车成本的大小，共享停车者按停车成本最小的选择；(4) Compare the parking cost of each parking lot, and choose the one with the smallest parking cost for shared parkers;

(5)判断所选择的停车场是否已经停满，若停满，则比较剩余停车场的停车成本，选择停车成本最小的停车场停车，若未停满，则选择该停车场停车；(5) Judging whether the selected parking lot is full, if it is full, then compare the parking costs of the remaining parking lots, and select the parking lot with the smallest parking cost for parking. If it is not full, select the parking lot for parking;

(6)更新停车场停车数量；(6) Update the number of parking lots in the parking lot;

(7)判断是否达到终止条件，如果n≥N或所有停车位停满，则计算结束，并输出相关数据；反之，则n＝n+1，返回(3)。(7) Judging whether the termination condition is reached, if n≥N or all parking spaces are full, the calculation ends, and relevant data is output; otherwise, n=n+1, and return to (3).

本发明与现有技术相比，其显著优点为：(1)通过将过饱和的停车需求量根据泊位选择行为选择周边空闲停车位的方法对共享停车需求预测，得到更完善的共享停车需求预测方法；(2)针对超过停车容量的停车需求部分，明确共享停车需求量及转移的停车需求量，更符合混合用地共享停车实际状况。Compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following significant advantages: (1) The shared parking demand is predicted by the method of selecting the surrounding free parking spaces according to the parking space selection behavior of the oversaturated parking demand, so as to obtain a more perfect shared parking demand forecast. Methods; (2) For the part of the parking demand that exceeds the parking capacity, clarify the shared parking demand and the transferred parking demand, which is more in line with the actual situation of shared parking on mixed land.

附图说明Description of drawings

图1为本发明基于泊位选择行为的混合用地共享停车需求预测方法的流程图。FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for predicting the demand for shared parking on mixed land based on parking space selection behavior according to the present invention.

图2为城市建设用地分类图。Figure 2 is a classification map of urban construction land.

图3为本发明停车者共享停车选择流程图。FIG. 3 is a flow chart showing the selection of shared parking by parkers according to the present invention.

具体实施方式Detailed ways

本发明一种基于泊位选择行为的混合用地共享停车需求预测方法，包括以下步骤：The present invention is a hybrid land sharing parking demand forecasting method based on parking space selection behavior, comprising the following steps:

步骤1、确定混合用地内用地类型及各用地类型的土地利用指标；Step 1. Determine the land use types in the mixed land and the land use indicators of each land use type;

步骤2、利用停车生成率法对单一用地停车需求预测，计算各用地类型各时段停车需求；Step 2. Use the parking generation rate method to predict the parking demand of a single land, and calculate the parking demand of each land type and each time period;

步骤3、将各用地类型各时段停车需求与用地停车容量对比，确定共享停车需求量；Step 3. Compare the parking demand of each land use type and each time period with the parking capacity of the land use to determine the shared parking demand;

步骤4、根据停车者共享泊位选择行为建立广义成本函数；Step 4. Establish a generalized cost function according to the parking space sharing behavior of parking people;

步骤5、计算各共享停车需求者选择周边空闲泊位的停车成本，按停车成本最小选择停车位；Step 5. Calculate the parking cost for each shared parking demander to select the surrounding free parking spaces, and select the parking space according to the minimum parking cost;

步骤6、统计各共享停车需求者选择情况，得到共享停车下各用地类型停车需求量及共享停车需求转移量。Step 6: Count the selection of each shared parking demander, and obtain the parking demand of each land use type and the shared parking demand transfer amount under the shared parking.

进一步地，步骤1中，确定混合用地内用地类型及各用地类型的土地利用指标，具体为：Further, in step 1, the land use types in the mixed land and the land use indicators of each land use type are determined, specifically:

用地类型分为居住用地、公共管理与公共服务用地、商业服务业设施用地、工业用地、绿地与广场用地、公用设施用地、道路与交通设施用地、物流仓储用地；The land use types are divided into residential land, public management and public service land, commercial service facility land, industrial land, green space and square land, public utility land, road and transportation facility land, and logistics storage land;

居住用地分为一类居住用地、二类居住用地、三类居住用地；Residential land is divided into first-class residential land, second-class residential land, and third-class residential land;

公共管理与公共服务用地分为行政办公用地、文化设施用地、教育科研用地、体育用地、医疗卫生用地、社会福利设施用地、文物古迹用地、外事用地、宗教设施用地；Land for public management and public services is divided into administrative office land, cultural facility land, education and scientific research land, sports land, medical and health land, social welfare facility land, cultural relics and historic sites, foreign affairs land, and religious facilities land;

商业服务业设施用地分为商业设施用地、商务设施用地、娱乐康体设施用地、公共设施营业网点用地、其他服务设施用地；Commercial service industry facility land is divided into commercial facility land, business facility land, entertainment and sports facility land, public facility business network land, and other service facility land;

工业用地分为一类工业用地、二类工业用地、三类工业用地；Industrial land is divided into first-class industrial land, second-class industrial land, and third-class industrial land;

绿地与广场用地分为公园绿地、防护绿地、广场用地；Green space and square land are divided into park green space, protective green space and square land;

公用设施用地分为供应设施用地、环境设施用地、安全设施用地、其它公用设施用地；Land for public facilities is divided into land for supply facilities, land for environmental facilities, land for safety facilities, and land for other public facilities;

道路与交通设施用地分为城市道路用地、城市轨道交通用地、交通枢纽用地、交通场站用地、其他交通设施用地；The land for roads and transportation facilities is divided into urban road land, urban rail transit land, transportation hub land, transportation station land, and other transportation facilities land;

物流仓储用地分为一类物流仓储用地、二类物流仓储用地、三类物流仓储用地。The logistics warehousing land is divided into the first-class logistics warehousing land, the second-class logistics warehousing land, and the third-class logistics warehousing land.

进一步地，步骤2中，利用停车生成率法对单一用地停车需求预测，计算各用地类型各时段停车需求，具体为：Further, in step 2, use the parking generation rate method to predict the parking demand of a single land, and calculate the parking demand of each land type and each time period, specifically:

根据混合用地类型及土地利用指标，根据停车生成率模型计算各用地停车需求量，计算公式为：According to the mixed land type and land use index, the parking demand of each land is calculated according to the parking generation rate model. The calculation formula is:

Figure BDA0003078851060000061
Figure BDA0003078851060000061

其中，

Figure BDA0003078851060000062
为用地i在t时段的停车需求量；Si为用地i的土地利用指标；
Figure BDA0003078851060000063
为用地i在t时段的停车生成率。in,
Figure BDA0003078851060000062
is the parking demand of land i in period t; S i is the land use index of land i;
Figure BDA0003078851060000063
is the parking generation rate of land i in time period t.

进一步地，步骤3中，将各用地类型各时段停车需求与用地停车容量对比，确定共享停车需求量，具体如下：Further, in step 3, the parking demand of each land use type and each time period is compared with the parking capacity of the land use to determine the shared parking demand, as follows:

当停车需求量小于等于用地停车容量时，则没有共享停车需求量；当停车需求量大于用地停车容量时，则有共享停车需求量，且共享停车需求量为超出用地停车容量的部分，计算公式为：When the parking demand is less than or equal to the parking capacity of the land, there is no demand for shared parking; when the demand for parking is greater than the parking capacity of the land, there is a demand for shared parking, and the demand for shared parking is the part that exceeds the parking capacity of the land, the calculation formula for:

Figure BDA0003078851060000064
Figure BDA0003078851060000064

其中，Vi为用地i停车容量，

Figure BDA0003078851060000065
为用地i在t时段的共享停车需求量；Among them, V i is the parking capacity of land i,
Figure BDA0003078851060000065
is the demand for shared parking of land i in time period t;

共享停车总需求量：

Figure BDA0003078851060000066
Total demand for shared parking:
Figure BDA0003078851060000066

进一步地，步骤4中，根据停车者共享泊位选择行为建立广义成本函数，具体如下：Further, in step 4, a generalized cost function is established according to the parking space sharing behavior of the parkers, and the details are as follows:

停车者在共享泊位选择的过程中停车成本分为四个部分：①停车费用；②前往共享停车场的绕行时间成本；③停车场内空闲停车位的巡航时间成本；④从共享停车场前往目的地的步行成本；计算公式为：In the process of choosing a shared parking space, the parking cost is divided into four parts: ①Parking fee; ②Detour time cost to the shared parking lot; ③Cruising time cost of free parking spaces in the parking lot; ④Going from the shared parking lot The walking cost of the destination; calculated as:

Figure BDA0003078851060000067
Figure BDA0003078851060000067

其中，

Figure BDA0003078851060000068
为第n个共享停车者去用地j共享停车总成本；PCj为用地j的停车费用；
Figure BDA0003078851060000069
为第n个共享停车者去用地j停车的绕行时间成本；
Figure BDA00030788510600000610
为第n个共享停车者在用地j寻找停车位的时间成本；
Figure BDA00030788510600000611
为第n个共享停车者从用地j去目的地的步行时间成本；in,
Figure BDA0003078851060000068
is the total cost of shared parking for the nth shared parking person to use land j; PC j is the parking fee of land j;
Figure BDA0003078851060000069
The detour time cost for the nth shared parker to park on site j;
Figure BDA00030788510600000610
The time cost of finding a parking space on site j for the n-th shared parker;
Figure BDA00030788510600000611
is the walking time cost of the nth shared parking person from site j to the destination;

Figure BDA00030788510600000612
Figure BDA00030788510600000612

其中，

Figure BDA00030788510600000613
为第n个共享停车者去用地j停车的绕行距离；
Figure BDA00030788510600000614
为车辆绕行的平均速度；VOT为时间价值系数；in,
Figure BDA00030788510600000613
is the detour distance for the nth shared parker to park on site j;
Figure BDA00030788510600000614
is the average speed of vehicle detour; VOT is the time value coefficient;

Figure BDA0003078851060000071
Figure BDA0003078851060000071

其中，α为最小寻位时间；Vj为用地j停车容量；

Figure BDA0003078851060000072
为第n共享停车者停车时用地j内停车数量；Among them, α is the minimum search time; V j is the parking capacity of land j;
Figure BDA0003078851060000072
is the number of parking spaces in land j when the nth shared parking person parks;

Figure BDA0003078851060000073
Figure BDA0003078851060000073

其中，

Figure BDA0003078851060000074
为第n个共享停车者从用地j去目的地的步行距离；Vwalk为停车者的平均步行速度。in,
Figure BDA0003078851060000074
is the walking distance of the nth shared parker from site j to the destination; V walk is the average walking speed of the parker.

进一步地，步骤5中，计算各共享停车需求者选择周边空闲泊位的停车成本，按停车成本最小选择停车位，具体步骤如下：Further, in step 5, calculate the parking cost for each shared parking demander to select surrounding free parking spaces, and select the parking space according to the minimum parking cost. The specific steps are as follows:

(1)判断各用地停车场停车状况，输入共享停车需求量：①当停车需求量大于或等于停车容量时，则为目的地停车场，停车场内停车数量与停车容量相等；②若停车需求量小于停车容量，则为共享停车场，停车场内停车数量与停车需求量相等；(1) Judging the parking status of each parking lot, input the demand for shared parking: ① When the demand for parking is greater than or equal to the parking capacity, it is the destination parking lot, and the number of parking spaces in the parking lot is equal to the parking capacity; ② If the demand for parking is equal to the parking capacity If the amount is less than the parking capacity, it is a shared parking lot, and the number of parking spaces in the parking lot is equal to the parking demand;

(2)判断是否有共享停车需求量，若共享停车总需求量N＞0，令n＝1，共享停车者开始共享泊位选择；若共享停车总需求量N＝0，则结束，输出停车场数据；(2) Determine whether there is a demand for shared parking. If the total demand for shared parking is N>0, let n=1, and the shared parking person starts to choose a shared parking space; if the total demand for shared parking is N=0, it ends, and the parking lot is output. data;

(3)计算共享停车需求者与各共享停车场的停车成本；(3) Calculate the parking cost of the shared parking demander and each shared parking lot;

(4)比较各停车场停车成本的大小，共享停车者按停车成本最小的选择；(4) Compare the parking cost of each parking lot, and choose the one with the smallest parking cost for shared parkers;

(5)判断所选择的停车场是否已经停满，若停满，则比较剩余停车场的停车成本，选择停车成本最小的停车场停车，若未停满，则选择该停车场停车；(5) Judging whether the selected parking lot is full, if it is full, then compare the parking costs of the remaining parking lots, and select the parking lot with the smallest parking cost for parking. If it is not full, select the parking lot for parking;

(6)更新停车场停车数量；(6) Update the number of parking lots in the parking lot;

(7)判断是否达到终止条件，如果n≥N或所有停车位停满，则计算结束，并输出相关数据；反之，则n＝n+1，返回(3)。(7) Judging whether the termination condition is reached, if n≥N or all parking spaces are full, the calculation ends, and relevant data is output; otherwise, n=n+1, and return to (3).

下面结合附图及具体实施例对本发明做进一步详细说明。The present invention will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

实施例Example

结合图1～图2，一种基于泊位选择行为的混合用地共享停车需求预测方法，过程为：Combined with Figures 1 and 2, a method for predicting the demand for shared parking on mixed land based on parking space selection behavior, the process is as follows:

步骤一：确定混合用地内用地类型及各用地类型的土地利用指标；Step 1: Determine the land use types within the mixed land use and the land use indicators of each land use type;

步骤二：利用停车生成率法对单一用地停车需求预测，计算各用地类型各时段停车需求；Step 2: Use the parking generation rate method to predict the parking demand of a single land, and calculate the parking demand of each land type and time period;

停车生成率法考虑不同用地性质在停车特性及需求上存在差异，通过分析各用地性质单位土地利用所产生停车需求，建立土地利用与停车需求量之间的关系，计算公式为：The parking generation rate method considers the differences in parking characteristics and demands of different land uses, and establishes the relationship between land use and parking demand by analyzing the parking demand generated by each land use unit land use. The calculation formula is:

Figure BDA0003078851060000081
Figure BDA0003078851060000081

其中，

Figure BDA0003078851060000082
为用地i在t时段的停车需求量；Ri为用地i在t时段的停车生成率；Si为用地i的土地利用指标。in,
Figure BDA0003078851060000082
is the parking demand of land i in period t; R i is the parking generation rate of land i in period t; S i is the land use index of land i.

步骤三：将各用地类型各时段停车需求与其用地停车容量对比，确定共享停车需求量；Step 3: Compare the parking demand of each land use type and time period with the parking capacity of the land used to determine the shared parking demand;

当停车需求量小于等于用地停车容量时，则没有共享停车需求量；当停车需求量大于用地停车容量时，则有共享停车需求量，且共享停车需求量为超出用地停车容量的部分，计算公式为：When the parking demand is less than or equal to the parking capacity of the land, there is no demand for shared parking; when the demand for parking is greater than the parking capacity of the land, there is a demand for shared parking, and the demand for shared parking is the part that exceeds the parking capacity of the land, the calculation formula for:

Figure BDA0003078851060000083
Figure BDA0003078851060000083

其中，Vi为用地i停车容量，

Figure BDA0003078851060000084
为用地i在t时段的共享停车需求量。Among them, V i is the parking capacity of land i,
Figure BDA0003078851060000084
is the demand for shared parking of land i in period t.

共享停车总需求量：

Figure BDA0003078851060000085
Total demand for shared parking:
Figure BDA0003078851060000085

步骤四：根据停车者共享泊位选择行为建立广义成本函数；Step 4: Establish a generalized cost function according to the parking space sharing behavior of parkers;

停车者在共享泊位选择的过程中停车成本主要分为四个部分：①停车费用；②前往共享停车场的绕行时间成本；③停车场内空闲停车位的巡航时间成本；④从共享停车场前往目的地的步行成本。计算公式为：In the process of choosing a shared parking space, the parking cost is mainly divided into four parts: ① Parking cost; ② Detour time cost to the shared parking lot; ③ Cruising time cost of free parking spaces in the parking lot; ④ From the shared parking lot The cost of walking to the destination. The calculation formula is:

Figure BDA0003078851060000086
Figure BDA0003078851060000086

其中，

Figure BDA0003078851060000087
为第n个共享停车者去用地j共享停车总成本；PCj为用地j的停车费用；
Figure BDA0003078851060000088
为第n个共享停车者去用地j停车的绕行时间成本；
Figure BDA0003078851060000089
为第n个共享停车者在用地j寻找停车位的时间成本；
Figure BDA00030788510600000810
为第n个共享停车者从用地j去目的地的步行时间成本。in,
Figure BDA0003078851060000087
is the total cost of shared parking for the nth shared parking person to use land j; PC j is the parking fee of land j;
Figure BDA0003078851060000088
The detour time cost for the nth shared parker to park on site j;
Figure BDA0003078851060000089
The time cost of finding a parking space on site j for the n-th shared parker;
Figure BDA00030788510600000810
is the walking time cost of the nth shared parker from site j to the destination.

Figure BDA00030788510600000811
Figure BDA00030788510600000811

其中，

Figure BDA00030788510600000812
为第n个共享停车者去用地j停车的绕行距离；Vdrive为车辆绕行的平均速度；VOT为时间价值系数。in,
Figure BDA00030788510600000812
is the detour distance for the nth shared parker to park at site j; V drive is the average speed of the vehicle detour; VOT is the time value coefficient.

Figure BDA0003078851060000091
Figure BDA0003078851060000091

其中，α为最小寻位时间；Vj为用地j停车容量；

Figure BDA0003078851060000092
为第n共享停车者停车时用地j内停车数量。Among them, α is the minimum search time; V j is the parking capacity of land j;
Figure BDA0003078851060000092
is the number of parking spaces in the site j when the nth shared parking person parks.

Figure BDA0003078851060000093
Figure BDA0003078851060000093

其中，

Figure BDA0003078851060000094
为第n个共享停车者从用地j去目的地的步行距离；Vwalk为停车者的平均步行速度。in,
Figure BDA0003078851060000094
is the walking distance of the nth shared parker from site j to the destination; V walk is the average walking speed of the parker.

步骤五：计算各共享停车需求者选择周边空闲泊位的停车成本，按停车成本最小选择停车位，结合图3，具体步骤如下：Step 5: Calculate the parking cost for each shared parking demander to select the surrounding free parking spaces, and select the parking space according to the minimum parking cost. Combined with Figure 3, the specific steps are as follows:

(1)判断各用地停车场停车状况，输入共享停车需求量。①当停车需求量大于或等于停车容量时，则为目的地停车场，停车场内停车数量与停车容量相等；②若停车需求量小于停车容量，则为共享停车场，停车场内停车数量与停车需求量相等。(1) Judging the parking status of the parking lot of each site, and inputting the demand for shared parking. ① When the parking demand is greater than or equal to the parking capacity, it is the destination parking lot, and the number of parking spaces in the parking lot is equal to the parking capacity; ② If the parking demand is less than the parking capacity, it is a shared parking lot, and the number of parking spaces in the parking lot is equal to that of the parking lot. Parking needs are equal.

(2)判断是否有共享停车需求量，若共享停车总需求量N＞0，令n＝1，共享停车者开始共享泊位选择；若共享停车总需求量N＝0，则结束，输出停车场数据。(2) Determine whether there is a demand for shared parking. If the total demand for shared parking is N>0, let n=1, and the shared parking person starts to choose a shared parking space; if the total demand for shared parking is N=0, it ends, and the parking lot is output. data.

(3)计算共享停车需求者与各共享停车场的停车成本。(3) Calculate the parking cost of the shared parking demander and each shared parking lot.

(4)比较各停车场停车成本的大小，共享停车者按停车成本最小的选择。(4) Compare the parking cost of each parking lot, and choose the one with the smallest parking cost for the shared parking lot.

(5)判断所选择的停车场是否已经停满，若停满，则比较剩余停车场的停车成本，选择停车成本最小的停车场停车，若未停满，则选择该停车场停车。(5) Determine whether the selected parking lot is full. If it is full, compare the parking costs of the remaining parking lots and select the parking lot with the smallest parking cost for parking. If it is not full, select the parking lot for parking.

(6)更新停车场停车数量。(6) Update the number of parking lots in the parking lot.

(7)判断是否达到终止条件，如果n≥N或所有停车位停满，则计算结束，并输出相关数据。反之，则n＝n+1，返回(3)。(7) Judging whether the termination condition is reached, if n≥N or all parking spaces are full, the calculation ends and the relevant data is output. Otherwise, n=n+1, return to (3).

步骤六：统计各共享停车需求者选择情况，得到共享停车下各用地类型停车需求量及共享停车需求转移量。Step 6: Count the selection of each shared parking demander, and obtain the parking demand of each land use type and the transfer amount of shared parking demand under shared parking.

根据每个共享停车者选择的最终停车场，确定该时段混合用地在共享停车环境下的停车需求；根据每个共享停车者目的地停车场及最终选择的共享停车场，确定在共享停车环境下的停车需求转移量。According to the final parking lot selected by each shared parker, determine the parking demand of the mixed-use land in the shared parking environment during this period; transfer of parking demand.

本发明提供了一种基于泊位选择行为的混合用地共享停车需求预测方法，具体实现该技术方案的方法和途径很多，以上所述仅是本发明的优选实施方式，应当指出，对于本技术领域的普通技术人员来说，在不脱离本发明原理的前提下，还可以做出若干改进润饰，这些改进和润饰也应视为本发明的保护范围，本实施例中未明确的各组成部分均可用现有技术加以实现。The present invention provides a mixed-land shared parking demand forecasting method based on parking space selection behavior. There are many specific methods and approaches for realizing the technical solution. The above are only the preferred embodiments of the present invention. For those of ordinary skill, under the premise of not departing from the principles of the present invention, several improvements and modifications can also be made. These improvements and modifications should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present invention, and each component that is not clear in this embodiment is available. implemented by existing technology.

Claims (4)

1.一种基于泊位选择行为的混合用地共享停车需求预测方法，其特征在于，包括以下步骤：1. a hybrid land sharing parking demand forecasting method based on berth selection behavior, is characterized in that, comprises the following steps: 步骤1、确定混合用地内用地类型及各用地类型的土地利用指标；Step 1. Determine the land use types in the mixed land and the land use indicators of each land use type; 步骤2、利用停车生成率法对单一用地停车需求预测，计算各用地类型各时段停车需求，具体为：Step 2. Use the parking generation rate method to predict the parking demand of a single land, and calculate the parking demand of each land type and each time period, specifically: 根据混合用地类型及土地利用指标，根据停车生成率模型计算各用地停车需求量，计算公式为：According to the mixed land type and land use index, the parking demand of each land is calculated according to the parking generation rate model. The calculation formula is:
Figure FDA0003582642410000011
Figure FDA0003582642410000011
 其中，Pi t为用地i在t时段的停车需求量；Si为用地i的土地利用指标；
Figure FDA0003582642410000012
为用地i在t时段的停车生成率；Among them, P i t is the parking demand of land i in period t; S i is the land use index of land i;
Figure FDA0003582642410000012
is the parking generation rate of land i in period t; 步骤3、将各用地类型各时段停车需求与用地停车容量对比，确定共享停车需求量；Step 3. Compare the parking demand of each land use type and each time period with the parking capacity of the land use to determine the shared parking demand; 步骤4、根据停车者共享泊位选择行为建立广义成本函数，具体如下：Step 4. Establish a generalized cost function according to the parking space sharing behavior of parking people, as follows: 停车者在共享泊位选择的过程中停车成本分为四个部分：①停车费用；②前往共享停车场的绕行时间成本；③停车场内空闲停车位的巡航时间成本；④从共享停车场前往目的地的步行成本；计算公式为：In the process of choosing a shared parking space, the parking cost is divided into four parts: ①Parking fee; ②Detour time cost to the shared parking lot; ③Cruising time cost of free parking spaces in the parking lot; ④Going from the shared parking lot The walking cost of the destination; calculated as:
Figure FDA0003582642410000013
Figure FDA0003582642410000013
 其中，
Figure FDA0003582642410000014
为第n个共享停车者去用地j共享停车总成本；PCj为用地j的停车费用；
Figure FDA0003582642410000015
为第n个共享停车者去用地j停车的绕行时间成本；
Figure FDA0003582642410000016
为第n个共享停车者在用地j寻找停车位的时间成本；
Figure FDA0003582642410000017
为第n个共享停车者从用地j去目的地的步行时间成本；in,
Figure FDA0003582642410000014
is the total cost of shared parking for the nth shared parking person to use land j; PC j is the parking fee of land j;
Figure FDA0003582642410000015
The detour time cost for the nth shared parker to park on site j;
Figure FDA0003582642410000016
The time cost of finding a parking space on site j for the n-th shared parker;
Figure FDA0003582642410000017
is the walking time cost of the nth shared parking person from site j to the destination;
Figure FDA0003582642410000018
Figure FDA0003582642410000018
 其中，
Figure FDA0003582642410000019
为第n个共享停车者去用地j停车的绕行距离；Vdrive为车辆绕行的平均速度；VOT为时间价值系数；in,
Figure FDA0003582642410000019
is the detour distance for the nth shared parker to park at site j; V drive is the average speed of the vehicle detour; VOT is the time value coefficient;
Figure FDA00035826424100000110
Figure FDA00035826424100000110
 其中，α为最小寻位时间；Vj为用地j停车容量；
Figure FDA00035826424100000111
为第n共享停车者停车时用地j内停车数量；Among them, α is the minimum search time; V j is the parking capacity of land j;
Figure FDA00035826424100000111
is the number of parking spaces in land j when the nth shared parking person parks;
Figure FDA0003582642410000021
Figure FDA0003582642410000021
 其中，
Figure FDA0003582642410000022
为第n个共享停车者从用地j去目的地的步行距离；Vwalk为停车者的平均步行速度；in,
Figure FDA0003582642410000022
is the walking distance of the nth shared parking person from land j to the destination; V walk is the average walking speed of the parking person; 步骤5、计算各共享停车需求者选择周边空闲泊位的停车成本，按停车成本最小选择停车位；Step 5. Calculate the parking cost for each shared parking demander to select the surrounding free parking spaces, and select the parking space according to the minimum parking cost; 步骤6、统计各共享停车需求者选择情况，得到共享停车下各用地类型停车需求量及共享停车需求转移量。Step 6: Count the selection of each shared parking demander, and obtain the parking demand of each land use type and the shared parking demand transfer amount under the shared parking. 2.根据权利要求1所述的基于泊位选择行为的混合用地共享停车需求预测方法，其特征在于：步骤1中，确定混合用地内用地类型及各用地类型的土地利用指标，具体为：2. The method for predicting shared parking demand on mixed land based on berth selection behavior according to claim 1, characterized in that: in step 1, the land use type and the land use index of each land use type in the mixed land are determined, specifically: 用地类型分为居住用地、公共管理与公共服务用地、商业服务业设施用地、工业用地、绿地与广场用地、公用设施用地、道路与交通设施用地、物流仓储用地；The land use types are divided into residential land, public management and public service land, commercial service facility land, industrial land, green space and square land, public utility land, road and transportation facility land, and logistics storage land; 居住用地分为一类居住用地、二类居住用地、三类居住用地；Residential land is divided into first-class residential land, second-class residential land, and third-class residential land; 公共管理与公共服务用地分为行政办公用地、文化设施用地、教育科研用地、体育用地、医疗卫生用地、社会福利设施用地、文物古迹用地、外事用地、宗教设施用地；Land for public management and public services is divided into administrative office land, cultural facility land, education and scientific research land, sports land, medical and health land, social welfare facility land, cultural relics and historic sites, foreign affairs land, and religious facilities land; 商业服务业设施用地分为商业设施用地、商务设施用地、娱乐康体设施用地、公共设施营业网点用地、其他服务设施用地；Commercial service industry facility land is divided into commercial facility land, business facility land, entertainment and sports facility land, public facility business network land, and other service facility land; 工业用地分为一类工业用地、二类工业用地、三类工业用地；Industrial land is divided into first-class industrial land, second-class industrial land, and third-class industrial land; 绿地与广场用地分为公园绿地、防护绿地、广场用地；Green space and square land are divided into park green space, protective green space and square land; 公用设施用地分为供应设施用地、环境设施用地、安全设施用地、其它公用设施用地；Land for public facilities is divided into land for supply facilities, land for environmental facilities, land for safety facilities, and land for other public facilities; 道路与交通设施用地分为城市道路用地、城市轨道交通用地、交通枢纽用地、交通场站用地、其他交通设施用地；The land for roads and transportation facilities is divided into urban road land, urban rail transit land, transportation hub land, transportation station land, and other transportation facilities land; 物流仓储用地分为一类物流仓储用地、二类物流仓储用地、三类物流仓储用地。The logistics warehousing land is divided into the first-class logistics warehousing land, the second-class logistics warehousing land, and the third-class logistics warehousing land. 3.根据权利要求1所述的基于泊位选择行为的混合用地共享停车需求预测方法，其特征在于，步骤3中，将各用地类型各时段停车需求与用地停车容量对比，确定共享停车需求量，具体如下：3. The method for predicting the demand for shared parking on mixed land based on parking space selection behavior according to claim 1, wherein in step 3, the parking demand of each land use type and each period of time is compared with the parking capacity of the land use to determine the shared parking demand, details as follows: 当停车需求量小于等于用地停车容量时，则没有共享停车需求量；当停车需求量大于用地停车容量时，则有共享停车需求量，且共享停车需求量为超出用地停车容量的部分，计算公式为：When the parking demand is less than or equal to the parking capacity of the land, there is no demand for shared parking; when the demand for parking is greater than the parking capacity of the land, there is a demand for shared parking, and the demand for shared parking is the part that exceeds the parking capacity of the land, the calculation formula for:
Figure FDA0003582642410000031
Figure FDA0003582642410000031
 其中，Vi为用地i停车容量，
Figure FDA0003582642410000032
为用地i在t时段的共享停车需求量；Among them, V i is the parking capacity of land i,
Figure FDA0003582642410000032
is the demand for shared parking of land i in period t; 共享停车总需求量：
Figure FDA0003582642410000033
Total demand for shared parking:
Figure FDA0003582642410000033
 4.根据权利要求1所述的基于泊位选择行为的混合用地共享停车需求预测方法，其特征在于，步骤5中，计算各共享停车需求者选择周边空闲泊位的停车成本，按停车成本最小选择停车位，具体步骤如下：4. The method for predicting the demand for shared parking on mixed land based on parking space selection behavior according to claim 1, wherein in step 5, the parking cost for each shared parking demander to select surrounding free parking spaces is calculated, and parking is selected according to the minimum parking cost. bit, the specific steps are as follows: (1)判断各用地停车场停车状况，输入共享停车需求量：①当停车需求量大于或等于停车容量时，则为目的地停车场，停车场内停车数量与停车容量相等；②若停车需求量小于停车容量，则为共享停车场，停车场内停车数量与停车需求量相等；(1) Judging the parking status of each parking lot, input the demand for shared parking: ① When the demand for parking is greater than or equal to the parking capacity, it is the destination parking lot, and the number of parking spaces in the parking lot is equal to the parking capacity; ② If the demand for parking is equal to the parking capacity If the amount is less than the parking capacity, it is a shared parking lot, and the number of parking spaces in the parking lot is equal to the parking demand; (2)判断是否有共享停车需求量，若共享停车总需求量N＞0，令n＝1，共享停车者开始共享泊位选择；若共享停车总需求量N＝0，则结束，输出停车场数据；(2) Determine whether there is a demand for shared parking. If the total demand for shared parking is N>0, let n=1, and the shared parking person starts to choose a shared parking space; if the total demand for shared parking is N=0, it ends, and the parking lot is output. data; (3)计算共享停车需求者与各共享停车场的停车成本；(3) Calculate the parking cost of the shared parking demander and each shared parking lot; (4)比较各停车场停车成本的大小，共享停车者按停车成本最小的选择；(4) Compare the parking cost of each parking lot, and choose the one with the smallest parking cost for shared parkers; (5)判断所选择的停车场是否已经停满，若停满，则比较剩余停车场的停车成本，选择停车成本最小的停车场停车，若未停满，则选择该停车场停车；(5) Judging whether the selected parking lot is full, if it is full, then compare the parking costs of the remaining parking lots, and select the parking lot with the smallest parking cost for parking. If it is not full, select the parking lot for parking; (6)更新停车场停车数量；(6) Update the number of parking lots in the parking lot; (7)判断是否达到终止条件，如果n≥N或所有停车位停满，则计算结束，并输出相关数据；反之，则n＝n+1，返回(3)。(7) Judging whether the termination condition is reached, if n≥N or all parking spaces are full, the calculation ends and relevant data is output; otherwise, n=n+1, and return to (3).
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