CN113361106B - Cable type selection method and system based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance - Google Patents

Cable type selection method and system based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance Download PDF

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CN113361106B
CN113361106B CN202110633240.5A CN202110633240A CN113361106B CN 113361106 B CN113361106 B CN 113361106B CN 202110633240 A CN202110633240 A CN 202110633240A CN 113361106 B CN113361106 B CN 113361106B
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CN113361106A (en
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汪政
彭向阳
黄振
王锐
魏俊涛
赵兵
顾洁
何昌皓
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Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
Electric Power Research Institute of Guangdong Power Grid Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention provides a cable model selection method and a system based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance, which are characterized in that a life cycle cost model of a superconducting cable and a life cycle cost model of a conventional cable, which are composed of an operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable and an initial investment model of a superconducting cable system, are established, a cost value of the superconducting cable and a cost value of the conventional cable are further obtained according to an actual length value of electric power, the most appropriate cable material and cost price are selected by comparing the cost value of the superconducting cable and the cost value of the conventional cable, under the scene of improving the safety and reliability of power supply of a power grid, such as high-capacity power supply and low-voltage interconnection of substations in central cities, the channel cost and the operation and maintenance cost are considered, and the comparison and selection of the superconducting cable and the common cable are scientifically and comprehensively analyzed from the perspective of the life cycle cost, so as to improve the comprehensive efficiency of equipment investment.

Description

Cable type selection method and system based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of cable model selection, in particular to a cable model selection method and a system based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance.
Background
With the rapid development of economy in China, the demand of people on electric energy is gradually increased, the power consumption of a large city is gradually increased, the load density of a power grid is continuously improved, the transmission capacity of the power grid is close to a saturation state, and the aging problem of a cable is gradually severe, so that the problems of tension of a transmission channel and the like need to be solved by adopting a power transmission mode with higher transmission capacity.
The traditional transmission line in China generally consists of a conventional copper conductor power cable and an overhead line, has the disadvantages of large occupied area of a transmission channel, high loss, environmental friendliness and the like, and meanwhile, the transmission capacity cannot meet the increasing electric energy requirement. According to investigation, the electric energy loss in a system for transmitting power by adopting the conventional copper conductor power transmission cable accounts for about 15 percent of the power transmission line, and the annual power loss only reaches more than 1000 hundred million degrees in China. Therefore, it is difficult for the conventional technique to satisfy the transmission requirement of high density and large capacity.
As one of advanced power grid technologies, a superconducting transmission technology utilizes high current-carrying density (104-107A/cm & lt 2 & gt) and unobstructed current-carrying capacity of a superconducting material in a superconducting state to replace conventional metal materials such as copper and aluminum to serve as current-carrying conductors, so that the high-density and large-capacity transmission requirements of modern power grids are met, and high-density electric energy transmission is realized. With the continuous development of High-temperature superconducting cable (HTS cable for short) technology, the critical temperature of superconductor is already higher than the temperature of liquid nitrogen, so liquid nitrogen becomes a cooling medium for HTS cable due to its advantages of low price and abundant resources.
The superconducting cable transmission technology has made many progress at home and abroad, and a few HTS cables have the level of being connected to an actual power grid, but because the manufacturing cost of the superconducting cable is higher at present, the initial investment scale is larger, only one-time purchase cost is usually considered in cable type selection at present, and the benefits of low loss, less discharge and large current-carrying capacity on channel requirements are ignored, so that the popularization and application of the superconducting cable in urban power grid planning and construction are limited.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a cable model selection method and a cable model selection system based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance, which are used for scientifically and comprehensively analyzing the comparison and selection of a superconducting cable and a common cable from the perspective of the whole life cycle cost by considering channel cost and operation and maintenance cost under the scene of improving the safety and reliability of power supply of a power grid, such as high-capacity power supply, low-voltage interconnection of substations in urban centers and the like, so that the comprehensive efficiency of equipment investment is improved.
The invention provides a cable type selection method based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring the transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable and the heat load at the terminal position of the superconducting cable, and calculating the total loss of the superconducting cable according to the transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable and the heat load at the terminal position of the superconducting cable; wherein the total loss of the superconducting cable includes: energy loss due to transmission loss of the superconducting cable and energy loss due to thermal load in the superconducting cable;
acquiring the carbon emission cost of the superconducting cable and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable, and acquiring an operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable according to the total loss of the superconducting cable, the carbon emission cost of the superconducting cable and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable;
obtaining rated transmission current of a superconducting cable, unit cost of a superconducting cable body, the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and channel cost of unit length of a single hole, and obtaining an initial investment model of a superconducting cable system according to energy loss caused by heat load in the superconducting cable, the rated transmission current of the superconducting cable, the unit cost of the superconducting cable body, the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and the channel cost of unit length of the single hole; wherein the initial investment model of the superconducting cable system includes: the purchase cost of the cable, the purchase cost of the refrigeration equipment and the laying cost of the superconducting cable;
obtaining a life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable according to the operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable and an initial investment model of the superconducting cable system;
acquiring the transmission loss of a conventional cable in unit length, and calculating the total loss of the conventional cable according to the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length; wherein the total loss of the conventional cable comprises: energy loss due to transmission loss of conventional cables;
obtaining rated current of a conventional cable, unit cost of a conventional cable body, transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length, the number of channels required for laying the conventional cable and carbon emission of the conventional cable, and obtaining a life cycle cost model of the conventional cable according to the rated current of the conventional cable, the unit cost of the conventional cable body, the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length, the number of channels required for laying the conventional cable and the carbon emission of the conventional cable;
acquiring an actual length value of power to be laid, inputting the actual length value of the power to be laid to a life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable to obtain a cost value of the superconducting cable, and inputting the actual length value of the power to be laid to a life cycle cost model of a conventional cable to obtain a cost value of the conventional cable;
comparing the superconducting cable cost value with the conventional cable cost value; if the cost value of the superconducting cable is smaller than the cost value of the conventional cable, selecting the superconducting cable; otherwise, selecting a conventional cable;
obtaining a critical length value of the cable according to the life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable and the life cycle cost model of the conventional cable, wherein the formula is as follows:
Figure GDA0003923837280000031
wherein l min Is the critical length of the cable, and R is the transmission power ratio of the superconducting cable to the conventional cable; i is U 、I HTS Rated transmission current, chi, of conventional and superconducting cables, respectively U 、χ HTS Unit cost of the conventional cable and the superconducting cable body, r unit capacity cost of the refrigerator, theta heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and omega U 、ω HTS Respectively, the transmission loss of a unit-length conventional cable and a superconducting cable, epsilon is the power cost per kilowatt hour, d is a discount factor for converting the operation cost of a single year into the operation cost in the whole life cycle by using a proper discount rate, and m U 、m HTS The number of channels required for laying a conventional cable and a superconducting cable respectively, lambda is the channel cost of a unit length of a single hole, tau is the thermal load of a terminal position of the cable, rho is the performance coefficient of a refrigerating machine, k is the environment-friendly discharge cost coefficient, and Q is the discharge cost coefficient U 、Q HTS The carbon emission of the conventional cable and the superconducting cable, respectively;
acquiring an actual length value of electric power to be laid, and comparing the actual length value of the electric power to be laid with the critical length value of the cable; if the actual length value of the power to be laid is larger than or equal to the critical length value of the cable, selecting a superconducting cable; otherwise, a conventional cable is selected.
Further, the calculating of the total loss of the superconducting cable based on the transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and the heat load at the terminal position of the superconducting cable includes:
obtaining energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable according to the transmission loss of the unit length of the superconducting cable; specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P c HTS ＝ω HTS l；
wherein, P c HTS Is the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable, and the unit is W, omega HTS Is the transmission loss of the superconducting cable per unit length, in W/m, l is the cable length, in m;
obtaining energy loss caused by heat load in the superconducting cable according to transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable and heat load at a terminal position of the superconducting cable; specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P t HTS ＝(θ+ω HTS )l+τ；
wherein, P t HTS Is the energy loss caused by the thermal load in the superconducting cable, and the unit is W, and theta is the heat loss of the superconducting cable per unit length of the cable, and the unit is W/m, omega HTS The unit of transmission loss of the superconducting cable with unit length is W/m, l is the cable length, the unit is m, tau is the thermal load of the cable terminal position, and the unit is W;
obtaining the total loss of the superconducting cable according to the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable and the energy loss caused by the thermal load in the superconducting cable; specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P HTS ＝ρP t HTS +P c HTS ；
wherein, P HTS Representing the total loss, P, of the superconducting cable t HTS Is the energy loss due to the thermal load in the superconducting cable, P c HTS Is the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable, and rho is the coefficient of performance of the refrigerating machine.
Further, an operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable is obtained according to the total loss of the superconducting cable, the carbon emission cost of the superconducting cable and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable, and specifically, the operation and maintenance cost model is calculated by the following formula:
O HTS ＝(0.0876εP HTS +E HTS +M HTS )×d；
wherein, O HTS Is the operation and maintenance cost, P, of the superconducting cable HTS Is the total energy consumption of the superconducting cable, with the unit being W; ε is the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour, the unit is Yuan/kilowatt-hour; e HTS And M HTS The carbon emission cost and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable are respectively annually, and d is a discount factor for converting the operation cost of a single year into the operation cost in the whole life cycle by using a proper discount rate.
Further, the method for obtaining an initial investment model of a superconducting cable system based on an energy loss due to a thermal load in the superconducting cable, a rated transmission current of the superconducting cable, a unit cost of the superconducting cable body, the number of passages required for laying the superconducting cable, and a passage cost per unit length of the single hole includes:
obtaining a purchase cost model of the superconducting cable according to the rated transmission current of the superconducting cable and the unit cost of the superconducting cable body; specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000061
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure GDA0003923837280000062
for purchase cost of superconducting cable, I HTS Rated transmission current, χ, of superconducting cable HTS Is the unit cost of the superconducting cable body, l is the cable length;
obtaining a purchase cost model of the refrigeration equipment according to energy loss caused by heat load in the superconducting cable; specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000063
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
Figure GDA0003923837280000064
is the purchase cost of the refrigeration equipment, r is the unit capacity cost of the refrigerator, and the unit is ten thousand yuan/kW, P t HTS Energy loss caused by thermal load in the superconducting cable;
obtaining a laying cost model of the superconducting cable according to the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and the channel cost of the unit length of the single hole; specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000065
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
Figure GDA0003923837280000066
is the laying cost of the superconducting cable, m HTS The number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable, lambda is the channel cost per unit length of a single hole, and l is the cable length;
obtaining an initial investment model of a superconducting cable system according to the purchase cost model of the superconducting cable, the purchase cost model of the refrigeration equipment and the laying cost model of the superconducting cable; specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000067
wherein A is HTS Is an initial investment cost of the superconducting cable system,
Figure GDA0003923837280000068
is the purchase cost of the cable, <' > based on the number of subscribers>
Figure GDA0003923837280000069
Is the purchase cost of the refrigeration appliance>
Figure GDA00039238372800000610
Is the laying cost of the superconducting cable.
Further, the life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable is obtained according to the operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable and the initial investment model of the superconducting cable system, and specifically, the life cycle cost model is calculated by the following formula:
C HTS ＝A HTS +O HTS ；
wherein, C HTS Is the life cycle cost of the superconducting cable, A HTS Initial investment cost of the superconducting cable system; o is HTS Is the operation and maintenance cost of the superconducting cable.
Further, calculating the total loss of the conventional cable according to the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length; specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P U ＝P c U ＝ω U l；
wherein, P U Is the total loss, P, of the conventional cable c U Is the transmission loss, omega, of a conventional cable U Is the transmission loss per unit length of a conventional cable and is the cable length.
Further, obtaining a life cycle cost model of the conventional cable according to the rated current of the conventional cable, the unit cost of the conventional cable body, the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length, the number of channels required by laying the conventional cable and the carbon emission of the conventional cable; specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
C U ＝lI U χ U +0.0876εdlω U +m U λl+kQ U ；
wherein, C U Is the life cycle cost of a conventional cable, l is the cable length in m, I U Is the rated current of the conventional cable with the unit of kA, chi U Is the unit cost of the conventional cable body, the unit is ten thousand yuan/kA.m, epsilon is the electric power cost of each kilowatt hour, and the unit is yuan/kilowatt hour; e HTS And M HTS The carbon emission cost and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable are respectively annually, d is a discount factor for converting the operation cost of a single year into the operation cost in the whole life cycle by using the appropriate discount rate, omega U Is the transmission loss per unit length of the conventional cable, m U Is the number of channels required for laying conventional cables, lambda is the channel cost per unit length of a single hole, k is the environmental protection discharge cost coefficient, Q U Is the conventional cable carbon emission.
The invention provides a cable type selection system based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance, which comprises:
a total loss calculation module of the superconducting cable, configured to obtain a transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, a heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and a heat load at a terminal position of the superconducting cable, and calculate a total loss of the superconducting cable according to the transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and the heat load at the terminal position of the superconducting cable; wherein the total loss of the superconducting cable includes: energy loss due to transmission loss of the superconducting cable and energy loss due to thermal load in the superconducting cable;
the operation and maintenance cost model calculation module of the superconducting cable is used for obtaining the carbon emission cost of the superconducting cable and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable, and obtaining an operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable according to the total loss of the superconducting cable, the carbon emission cost of the superconducting cable and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable;
the initial investment model calculation module is used for obtaining rated transmission current of the superconducting cable, unit cost of a superconducting cable body, the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and channel cost of unit length of a single hole, and obtaining an initial investment model of the superconducting cable system according to energy loss caused by heat load in the superconducting cable, the rated transmission current of the superconducting cable, the unit cost of the superconducting cable body, the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and the channel cost of unit length of the single hole; wherein the initial investment model of the superconducting cable system includes: the purchase cost of the cable, the purchase cost of the refrigeration equipment and the laying cost of the superconducting cable;
the life cycle cost model calculation module of the superconducting cable is used for obtaining a life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable according to the operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable and an initial investment model of a superconducting cable system;
the total loss calculation module of the conventional cable is used for acquiring the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length and calculating the total loss of the conventional cable according to the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length; wherein the total loss of the conventional cable comprises: energy loss due to transmission loss of conventional cables;
the life cycle cost model calculation module of the conventional cable is used for obtaining the rated current of the conventional cable, the unit cost of a conventional cable body, the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length, the number of channels required for laying the conventional cable and the carbon emission of the conventional cable, and obtaining the life cycle cost model of the conventional cable according to the rated current of the conventional cable, the unit cost of the conventional cable body, the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length, the number of channels required for laying the conventional cable and the carbon emission of the conventional cable;
the cable cost value calculation module is used for acquiring an actual length value of power to be laid, inputting the actual length value of the power to be laid to a life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable to obtain a cost value of the superconducting cable, and inputting the actual length value of the power to be laid to a life cycle cost model of a conventional cable to obtain a cost value of the conventional cable;
a first comparison module for comparing the superconducting cable cost value with the conventional cable cost value; if the cost value of the superconducting cable is smaller than the cost value of the conventional cable, selecting the superconducting cable; otherwise, selecting a conventional cable;
the cable critical length value calculation module is used for obtaining a cable critical length value according to the life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable and the life cycle cost model of the conventional cable;
the second comparison module is used for acquiring an actual length value of the electric power to be laid and comparing the actual length value of the electric power to be laid with the critical length value of the cable; if the actual length value of the power to be laid is larger than or equal to the critical length value of the cable, selecting a superconducting cable; otherwise, a conventional cable is selected.
Compared with the prior art, the embodiment of the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the invention provides a cable model selection method and a system based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance, which are characterized in that a life cycle cost model of a superconducting cable and a life cycle cost model of a conventional cable, which are composed of an operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable and an initial investment model of a superconducting cable system, are established, a cost value of the superconducting cable and a cost value of the conventional cable are further obtained according to an actual length value of electric power, the most appropriate cable material and cost price are selected by comparing the cost value of the superconducting cable and the cost value of the conventional cable, under the scene of improving the safety and reliability of power supply of a power grid, such as high-capacity power supply and low-voltage interconnection of substations in central cities, the channel cost and the operation and maintenance cost are considered, and the comparison and selection of the superconducting cable and the common cable are scientifically and comprehensively analyzed from the perspective of the life cycle cost, so as to improve the comprehensive efficiency of equipment investment.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art that other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a cable model selection method based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flowchart of a cable model selection method based on balancing life cycle cost and dynamic profit and loss according to another embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a flow chart of a cable type selection method based on balancing life cycle cost and dynamic profit and loss according to another embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a flowchart of a cable model selection method based on balancing life cycle cost and dynamic profit and loss according to another embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is an apparatus diagram of a cable profiling system based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balancing according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 6 is an apparatus diagram of a cable sizing system based on balancing life cycle cost and dynamic profit and loss according to another embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 7 is an apparatus diagram of a cable profiling system based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balancing according to another embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 8 is an apparatus diagram of a cable sizing system based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balancing according to yet another embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 9 is a block diagram of an electronic device according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
It should be understood that the step numbers used herein are for convenience of description only and are not intended as limitations on the order in which the steps are performed.
It is to be understood that the terminology used in the description of the invention herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the invention. As used in this specification and the appended claims, the singular forms "a", "an", and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.
The terms "comprises" and "comprising" indicate the presence of the described features, integers, steps, operations, elements, and/or components, but do not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components, and/or groups thereof.
The term "and/or" refers to and includes any and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items.
Compared with the conventional transmission cable, the HTS cable has the advantages of large capacity, small area, low loss, environmental friendliness, no electromagnetic radiation, optimized electric energy structure and the like, can reduce loss, save corridors, reduce emission and optimize a power grid structure, has great development potential, and generates great technical and economic benefits. Therefore, the superconducting cable can become one of key technologies for solving the problem of high-density power transmission, and has great significance for developing the research of superconducting power transmission technology in China.
The superconducting cable transmission technology is developed to the present, the short-distance cable body technology is basically mature, engineering application enters a test demonstration and commercial operation stage, and a plurality of groups of high-temperature superconducting cable systems are put into power grid test, demonstration and commercial operation at home and abroad. With the continuous improvement of the cost performance of superconducting materials, the steady development of high-power refrigeration equipment and the gradual maturity of superconducting engineering application technology, the application prospect is wide and is estimated as follows: the superconducting power transmission technology is applied to the aspects of urban power grid transformation, power grid interconnection and the like in a small range around 2020, and short-distance and large-capacity power transmission is realized; in 2020-2030, the method plays an important role in the aspects of a narrow corridor backbone power grid, an alternating current/direct current interconnection ring network and the like, and is applied and popularized in engineering on some occasions where special requirements are needed and conventional technologies are difficult to solve.
The superconducting cable transmission technology has made many advances at home and abroad, and a few HTS cables have the level of being connected to an actual power grid, but because the manufacturing cost of the superconducting cable is higher at present and the initial investment scale is larger, only one-time purchase cost is usually considered in cable type selection at present, and the benefits of low loss, less emission and large current-carrying capacity on channel demand are ignored, so that the popularization and the application of the superconducting cable in urban power grid planning and construction are limited, especially under the scenes of improving the power supply safety and reliability of power grids such as large-capacity power supply and low-voltage interconnection of urban central transformer substations and the like, the channel cost and the operation and maintenance cost need to be considered, and the ratio selection of the superconducting cable and a common cable is scientifically and comprehensively analyzed from the perspective of the whole life cycle cost so as to improve the comprehensive efficiency of equipment investment.
A first aspect.
Referring to fig. 1, an embodiment of the present invention provides a cable type selection method based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance, including:
s10, acquiring the transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable and the heat load of the terminal position of the superconducting cable, and calculating the total loss of the superconducting cable according to the transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable and the heat load of the terminal position of the superconducting cable.
Wherein a total loss of the superconducting cable includes: energy loss due to transmission loss of the superconducting cable and energy loss due to thermal load in the superconducting cable.
In a specific embodiment, step S10 includes:
and S11, obtaining the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable according to the transmission loss of the unit length of the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P c HTS ＝ω HTS l；
wherein, P c HTS Is the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable, and the unit is W, omega HTS Is the transmission loss per unit length, in W/m, and l is the length of the cable, in m.
And S12, obtaining energy loss caused by heat load in the superconducting cable according to the transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable and the heat load at the terminal position of the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P t HTS ＝(θ+ω HTS )l+τ；
wherein, P t HTS Is the energy loss caused by the thermal load in the superconducting cable, and has the unit of W, theta is the thermal loss per unit length of the cable, and has the unit of W/m, omega HTS The unit of transmission loss of the superconducting cable per unit length is W/m, l is the length of the cable, m, τ is the thermal load at the end position of the cable, and W.
And S13, obtaining the total loss of the superconducting cable according to the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable and the energy loss caused by the thermal load in the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P HTS ＝ρP t HTS +P c HTS ；
wherein, P HTS Representing the total loss, P, of the superconducting cable t HTS Is the heat of superconducting cableEnergy loss due to load, P c HTS Is the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable, and rho is the coefficient of performance of the refrigerating machine.
S20, acquiring the carbon emission cost of the superconducting cable and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable, and obtaining an operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable according to the total loss of the superconducting cable, the carbon emission cost of the superconducting cable and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable.
In a specific embodiment, the calculation is specifically performed by the following formula:
O HTS ＝(0.0876εP HTS +E HTS +M HTS )×d；
wherein, O HTS Is the operation and maintenance cost of the superconducting cable, P HTS The unit of total energy consumption of the superconducting cable is W; ε is the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour, the unit is Yuan/kilowatt-hour; e HTS And M HTS The carbon emission cost and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable are respectively annually, and d is a discount factor for converting the operation cost of a single year into the operation cost in the whole life cycle by using a proper discount rate.
S30, obtaining rated transmission current of the superconducting cable, unit cost of the superconducting cable body, the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and channel cost of unit length of a single hole, and obtaining an initial investment model of the superconducting cable system according to energy loss caused by heat load in the superconducting cable, the rated transmission current of the superconducting cable, the unit cost of the superconducting cable body, the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and the channel cost of unit length of the single hole.
Wherein the initial investment model of the superconducting cable system includes: the purchase cost of the cable, the purchase cost of the refrigeration equipment and the laying cost of the superconducting cable.
In a specific embodiment, S30 includes:
and S31, obtaining a purchase cost model of the superconducting cable according to the rated transmission current of the superconducting cable and the unit cost of the superconducting cable body.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000141
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure GDA0003923837280000142
for the purchase cost of the cable, I HTS Rated transmission current of superconducting cable, chi HTS Is the unit cost of the superconducting cable body.
And S32, obtaining a purchase cost model of the refrigeration equipment according to energy loss caused by heat load in the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000151
wherein r is the unit capacity cost of the refrigerator, and the unit is ten thousand yuan/kW, P t HTS Is the energy loss due to thermal load in the superconducting cable.
And S33, obtaining a model of the laying cost of the superconducting cable according to the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and the channel cost of the unit length of the single hole.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000152
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
Figure GDA0003923837280000153
is the laying cost of the superconducting cable, m HTS Is the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable, and λ is the channel cost per unit length of a single hole.
And S34, obtaining an initial investment model of the superconducting cable system according to the purchase cost model of the superconducting cable, the purchase cost model of the refrigeration equipment and the laying cost model of the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000154
wherein A is HTS Is an initial investment of the superconducting cable system,
Figure GDA0003923837280000155
is the purchase cost of the cable, <' > based on the number of subscribers>
Figure GDA0003923837280000156
Is the purchase cost of the refrigeration appliance>
Figure GDA0003923837280000157
Is the laying cost of the superconducting cable.
And S40, obtaining a life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable according to the operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable and the initial investment model of the superconducting cable system.
In a specific embodiment, specifically, the following formula is used to calculate:
C HTS ＝A HTS +O HTS ；
wherein, C HTS Is the life cycle cost of the superconducting cable, A HTS Initial investment cost of the superconducting cable system; o is HTS Is the operation and maintenance cost of the superconducting cable.
S50, acquiring the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length, and calculating the total loss of the conventional cable according to the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length. Wherein the total loss of the conventional cable comprises: the energy loss due to the transmission loss of the conventional cable.
In a specific embodiment, specifically, the following formula is used to calculate:
P U ＝P c U ＝ω U l；
wherein, P U Is the total loss, P, of the conventional cable c U Is the transmission loss, omega U Is the transmission loss per unit length of a conventional cable and is the length of the cable.
S60, obtaining rated current of a conventional cable, unit cost of a conventional cable body, transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length, the number of channels required for laying the conventional cable and carbon emission of the conventional cable, and obtaining a life cycle cost model of the conventional cable according to the rated current of the conventional cable, the unit cost of the conventional cable body, the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length, the number of channels required for laying the conventional cable and the carbon emission of the conventional cable.
In a specific embodiment, specifically, the following formula is used to calculate:
C U ＝lI U χ U +0.0876εdlω U +m U λl+kQ U ；
wherein l is the cable length in m, I U Is the rated current of the conventional cable with the unit of kA, chi U Is the unit cost of the conventional cable body, and the unit is ten thousand yuan/kA.m, omega U Is the transmission loss per unit length of the conventional cable, m U Is the number of channels, Q, required for laying conventional cables U Is the conventional cable carbon emission.
S70, obtaining an actual length value of power to be laid, inputting the actual length value of the power to be laid to a life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable to obtain a cost value of the superconducting cable, and inputting the length value of the cable to the life cycle cost model of the conventional cable to obtain a cost value of the conventional cable.
S80, comparing the cost value of the superconducting cable with the cost value of the conventional cable; selecting a superconducting cable if the cost value of the superconducting cable is less than the cost value of the conventional cable; otherwise, a conventional cable is selected.
Referring to fig. 2-4, an embodiment of the present invention provides a cable type selection method based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance, including:
s10, acquiring the transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable and the heat load of the terminal position of the superconducting cable, and calculating the total loss of the superconducting cable according to the transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable and the heat load of the terminal position of the superconducting cable.
Wherein a total loss of the superconducting cable includes: energy loss due to transmission loss of the superconducting cable and energy loss due to thermal load in the superconducting cable.
In a specific embodiment, step S10 includes:
and S11, obtaining the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable according to the transmission loss of the unit length of the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P c HTS ＝ω HTS l；
wherein, P c HTS Is the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable, and the unit is W, omega HTS Is the transmission loss per unit length, in W/m, and l is the length of the cable, in m.
And S12, obtaining energy loss caused by the heat load in the superconducting cable according to the transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable and the heat load at the terminal position of the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P t HTS ＝(θ+ω HTS )l+τ；
wherein, P t HTS Is the energy loss caused by the thermal load in the superconducting cable, and has the unit of W, theta is the thermal loss per unit length of the cable, and has the unit of W/m, omega HTS The unit of the transmission loss of the superconducting cable per unit length is W/m, l is the length of the cable, m, τ is the thermal load at the end of the cable, W.
And S13, obtaining the total loss of the superconducting cable according to the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable and the energy loss caused by the thermal load in the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P HTS ＝ρP t HTS +P c HTS ；
wherein, P HTS Representing the total loss, P, of the superconducting cable t HTS Is the energy loss due to the thermal load in the superconducting cable, P c HTS Is the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable, and rho is the coefficient of performance of the refrigerating machine.
S20, acquiring the carbon emission cost of the superconducting cable and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable, and obtaining an operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable according to the total loss of the superconducting cable, the carbon emission cost of the superconducting cable and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable.
In a specific embodiment, specifically, the following formula is used to calculate:
O HTS ＝(0.0876εP HTS +E HTS +M HTS )×d；
wherein, O HTS Is the operation and maintenance cost of the superconducting cable, P HTS The unit of total energy consumption of the superconducting cable is W; ε is the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour, the unit is Yuan/kilowatt-hour; e HTS And M HTS Respectively, the carbon emission cost and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable every year, and d is a discount factor for converting the operation cost of a single year into the operation cost in the whole life cycle with a proper discount rate.
S30, obtaining rated transmission current of the superconducting cable, unit cost of the superconducting cable body, the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and channel cost of unit length of a single hole, and obtaining an initial investment model of the superconducting cable system according to energy loss caused by heat load in the superconducting cable, the rated transmission current of the superconducting cable, the unit cost of the superconducting cable body, the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and the channel cost of unit length of the single hole.
Wherein the initial investment model of the superconducting cable system includes: the purchase cost of the cable, the purchase cost of the refrigeration equipment, and the laying cost of the superconducting cable.
In a specific embodiment, S30 includes:
and S31, obtaining a purchase cost model of the superconducting cable according to the rated transmission current of the superconducting cable and the unit cost of the superconducting cable body.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000191
/>
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure GDA0003923837280000192
for the purchase cost of the cable, I HTS Rated transmission current, χ, of superconducting cable HTS Is the unit cost of the superconducting cable body.
And S32, obtaining a purchase cost model of the refrigeration equipment according to the energy loss caused by the heat load in the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000193
wherein r is the unit capacity cost of the refrigerating machine, and the unit is ten thousand yuan/kW, P t HTS Is the energy loss due to thermal load in the superconducting cable.
And S33, obtaining a model of the laying cost of the superconducting cable according to the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and the channel cost of the unit length of the single hole.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000194
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure GDA0003923837280000195
is the laying cost of the superconducting cable, m HTS Is the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable, and λ is the channel cost per unit length of a single hole.
And S34, obtaining an initial investment model of the superconducting cable system according to the purchase cost model of the superconducting cable, the purchase cost model of the refrigeration equipment and the laying cost model of the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000201
wherein, A HTS Is an initial investment of the superconducting cable system,
Figure GDA0003923837280000202
is the purchase cost of the cable, based on the number of hours, or based on the number of hours, of the subscriber>
Figure GDA0003923837280000203
Is the purchase cost of the refrigeration appliance>
Figure GDA0003923837280000204
Is the laying cost of the superconducting cable.
And S40, obtaining a life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable according to the operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable and the initial investment model of the superconducting cable system.
In a specific embodiment, the calculation is specifically performed by the following formula:
C HTS ＝A HTS +O HTS ；
wherein, C HTS Is the life cycle cost of the superconducting cable, A HTS Initial investment cost of the superconducting cable system; o is HTS Is the operation and maintenance cost of the superconducting cable.
S50, acquiring the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length, and calculating the total loss of the conventional cable according to the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length. Wherein the total loss of the conventional cable comprises: the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the conventional cable.
In a specific embodiment, the calculation is specifically performed by the following formula:
P U ＝P c U ＝ω U l；
wherein, P U Is the total loss, P, of the conventional cable c U Is the transmission loss, omega U Is the transmission loss per unit length of a conventional cable and is the length of the cable.
S60, obtaining rated current of a conventional cable, unit cost of a conventional cable body, transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length, the number of channels required for laying the conventional cable and carbon emission of the conventional cable, and obtaining a life cycle cost model of the conventional cable according to the rated current of the conventional cable, the unit cost of the conventional cable body, the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length, the number of channels required for laying the conventional cable and the carbon emission of the conventional cable.
In a specific embodiment, specifically, the following formula is used to calculate:
C U ＝lI U χ U +0.0876εdlω U +m U λl+kQ U ；
wherein l is the cable length in m, I U Is rated current of a conventional cable with the unit of kA, chi U Is the unit cost of the conventional cable body, and the unit is ten thousand yuan/kA.m, omega U Is the transmission loss per unit length of the conventional cable, m U Is the number of channels, Q, required for laying conventional cables U Is the conventional cable carbon emission.
And S71, obtaining a critical length value of the cable according to the life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable and the life cycle cost model of the conventional cable.
In a specific embodiment, specifically, the following formula is used to calculate:
Figure GDA0003923837280000211
wherein l min Is the critical length of the cable, and R is the transmission power ratio of the superconducting cable to the conventional cable; I.C. A U 、I HTS Respectively of conventional cable and superconducting cableConstant transmission current, chi U 、χ HTS Unit cost of the conventional cable and the superconducting cable body, r unit capacity cost of the refrigerator, theta heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and omega U 、ω HTS Respectively, the transmission loss of a unit-length conventional cable and a superconducting cable, epsilon is the power cost per kilowatt hour, d is a discount factor for converting the operation cost of a single year into the operation cost in the whole life cycle by using a proper discount rate, and m U 、m HTS Respectively, the number of channels required for laying a conventional cable and a superconducting cable, lambda is the channel cost of a unit length of a single hole, tau is the thermal load of a cable terminal position, rho is the performance coefficient of a refrigerating machine, k is the environmental-friendly discharge cost coefficient, and Q U 、Q HTS The carbon emissions of conventional cables and superconducting cables, respectively.
S81, acquiring an actual length value of the electric power to be laid, and comparing the actual length value of the electric power to be laid with the critical length value of the cable; if the actual length value of the power to be laid is larger than or equal to the critical length value of the cable, selecting a superconducting cable; otherwise, a conventional cable is selected.
The invention provides a cable model selection method based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance, which comprises the steps of establishing a life cycle cost model of a superconducting cable and a life cycle cost model of a conventional cable, wherein the life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable is composed of an operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable and an initial investment model of a superconducting cable system, obtaining a cost value of the superconducting cable and a cost value of the conventional cable according to an actual length value of electric power, selecting the most appropriate cable material and cost price by comparing the cost value of the superconducting cable and the cost value of the conventional cable, considering channel cost and operation and maintenance cost under the scene of improving the safety and reliability of power supply of a power grid such as high-capacity power supply and low-voltage interconnection of urban central substations and the like, and scientifically and comprehensively analyzing the comparison of the superconducting cable and the common cable from the perspective of life cycle cost so as to improve the comprehensive efficiency of equipment investment.
In one embodiment, the present invention provides a cable type selection method based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance, comprising:
the method comprises the following steps: and calculating the energy loss of the high-temperature superconducting cable and the conventional cable.
The ac transmission losses in high temperature superconductors are significantly lower than in conventional cables. The high temperature superconducting cable consumes less energy during operation than the conventional cable, but the energy loss is different from the conventional cable in that the refrigerator consumes a certain amount of energy in order to maintain the operating temperature of the high temperature superconducting cable.
The passage of alternating current through the conductor results in transmission losses that are proportional to the length of the cable, as in formula (1), while heating the conductor and cable.
P c HTS ＝ω HTS l (1)
Wherein, P c HTS Is the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable, and the unit is W, omega HTS Is the transmission loss per unit length, in W/m, and l is the length of the cable, in m.
The heat generated by conventional cables is dissipated by the surrounding medium and the heat generated by the superconductor must be removed by a refrigerator to maintain the operating temperature of the high temperature superconducting cable. In addition to transmission losses and associated heat, the high temperature superconducting cable thermal load also includes energy losses of heat through the cable thermal insulation and terminations.
Based on the aforementioned power loss principle, the thermal load of the superconducting cable is given by:
P t HTS ＝(θ+ω HTS )l+τ (2)
wherein, P t HTS Is the energy loss caused by the thermal load in the superconducting cable, and has the unit of W, theta is the thermal loss per unit length of the cable, and has the unit of W/m, omega HTS The unit of the transmission loss of the superconducting cable per unit length is W/m, l is the length of the cable, τ is the thermal load at the cable termination location, and W is the unit.
Cryocoolers may be used to remove this thermal load and maintain the hts cable at its operating temperature. At the operating temperature of the high temperature superconducting cable, the input power required for the operation of the refrigerator is many times the amount of heat it removes. For example, a commercial Gifford-McMahon AL300 cryocooler manufactured by Cryomech Inc requires approximately 26W of input power to remove 1W of heat at a 65K operating temperature of the high temperature superconducting cable.
The performance of a refrigerator is usually expressed by the carnot cycle efficiency, which is determined by the maximum and minimum temperatures only, according to the second law of thermodynamics. Carnot cycle efficiency eta c Is expressed as
Figure GDA0003923837280000231
In the formula, T h (K) Is the maximum temperature, T, of the high temperature superconducting cable c (K) Is the lowest temperature.
The optimum Carnot efficiency eta of the high temperature superconducting cable can be obtained according to the formula (3) c In the existing refrigeration technology, the carnot efficiency of the refrigerator ranges from a few percent to twenty percent. In practice, the energy required by the refrigerator is therefore several times greater than in the theoretical analysis.
The coefficient of performance of the chiller, defined as ρ, characterizes the energy (in W) required to remove a 1W thermal load at the operating temperature of the superconducting cable, is calculated as follows:
Figure GDA0003923837280000241
where eta is the efficiency of the refrigerator, eta c The carnot cycle efficiency of the refrigerator.
In summary, the total loss calculation formula in the high temperature superconducting cable is as follows:
P HTS ＝P r HTS +P c HTS ＝ρP t HTS +P c HTS (5)
wherein, P r HTS Indicating the required capacity (W), P of the refrigerator HTS Represents the total loss (W, P) of the high-temperature superconducting cable during operation c HTS Is the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable, and has the unit of W,P t HTS is the energy loss due to the thermal load in the superconducting cable, and has the unit of W.
The energy consumed by the refrigerator is an absolute main factor in the superconducting cable loss.
The following derives an expression for the energy consumed in a given length of cable to facilitate the following calculation of the cable lifecycle cost.
From equations (1) to (5), it can be found that the total loss of the superconducting cable having a length l is:
P HTS ＝P r HTS +P c HTS ＝ρ[(θ+ω HTS )l+τ]+ω HTS l (6)
P HTS represents the total loss (W, P) of the high-temperature superconducting cable during operation r HTS Indicating the required capacity (W), P of the refrigerator c HTS Is the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable, the unit is W, rho is the performance coefficient of the refrigerator, theta is the heat loss of the superconducting cable unit length, the unit is W/m, omega HTS The unit of transmission loss of the superconducting cable per unit length is W/m, l is the length of the cable, τ is the thermal load at the end position of the cable, and W is the unit.
Whereas for a conventional cable, its total loss P U Involving transmission losses P only c U The method comprises the following steps:
P U ＝P c U ＝ω U l (7)
in the formula, omega U The transmission loss per unit length of conventional cable is given in W/m.
Since conventional cables carry less capacity than high temperature superconducting cables, when comparing the energy loss per unit length, the loss of a conventional cable should be multiplied by the transmission power ratio R of the two cables, i.e.:
P U′ ＝R×P U (7)
Figure GDA0003923837280000251
Figure GDA0003923837280000252
Figure GDA0003923837280000253
in the above formula, P U′ Is the energy loss of the conventional cable after the conversion; u is the transmission voltage (kV) of the cable; i is HTS And I U Rated transmission current (kA) for superconducting cable and ordinary cable, respectively
Step two: life cycle cost calculation for high temperature superconducting cable and conventional cable
The loss models of the superconducting cable and the conventional cable are proposed in the foregoing, and this section will mainly analyze the life cycle cost of the high-temperature superconducting cable and the conventional cable system including the purchase cost and the operation cost on the basis of the loss models.
By integrating the purchase and running costs of each cable, the life cycle costs of the high temperature superconducting cable and the conventional cable can be estimated.
One) life cycle cost calculation of superconducting cable
(1) Initial investment of superconducting cable system
The operation of the superconducting cable needs the support of refrigeration equipment, and the initial investment A of the superconducting cable system HTS Including the purchase cost of cables and refrigeration equipment and the laying (passage) cost of cables:
Figure GDA0003923837280000254
wherein, the initial investment A of the superconducting cable system HTS Purchase cost of cable
Figure GDA0003923837280000255
Purchase cost of refrigeration equipment
Figure GDA0003923837280000256
Cost of laying superconducting cable/>
Figure GDA0003923837280000257
Purchase cost of cable
Figure GDA0003923837280000258
The current required to be transmitted, the cable length;
Figure GDA0003923837280000259
wherein l is the cable length (m), I HTS Rated transmission current (kA), chi of superconducting cable HTS Is the cost per ka.m of the superconducting cable body (ten thousand yuan per ka.m).
Purchase cost of refrigeration equipment
Figure GDA0003923837280000261
The method for calculating the purchase cost of the refrigeration equipment is determined by the heat load of the cable and comprises the following steps: the thermal load of the high temperature superconducting cable is calculated and multiplied by the cost per unit power of the refrigerator.
Figure GDA0003923837280000262
Where r is a refrigerating machine unit capacity cost (ten thousand yuan/kW), in square brackets is a thermal load of the superconducting cable, θ is a thermal loss (W/m) per unit length of the superconducting cable, τ is a thermal load (W) of the superconducting cable terminal, ω is HTS The unit of transmission loss of the superconducting cable per unit length is W/m.
Laying (passage) cost of superconducting cable
Figure GDA0003923837280000263
The calculation is as follows: />
Figure GDA0003923837280000264
Wherein m is HTS The number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable is λ, the channel cost per unit length of a single hole (ten thousand units/km), and l, the cable length (m).
Figure GDA0003923837280000265
Wherein Ceiling () represents an rounding-up function; s is the capacity (MW) to be transmitted, U is the rated voltage (kV), I HTS Is the rated transmission current (kA) of the superconducting cable.
(2) Operational and maintenance costs of superconducting cables
Operation and maintenance cost O of superconducting cable HTS Including the operating and maintenance costs of the superconducting cable and refrigeration equipment;
O HTS ＝(0.0876εP HTS +E HTS +M HTS )×d (16)
the annual operating costs of the superconducting cables and the refrigeration equipment are calculated from the energy consumption and the discharge costs. P HTS The total energy consumption (W) of the superconducting cable is annual; ε is the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour in units of yuan/kilowatt-hour; e HTS And M HTS D is a discount factor for converting the operating cost of a single year into the operating cost in the whole life cycle by using a proper discount rate, namely an equal payment present value coefficient.
Considering the carbon emission amount in the cable operation, the cost includes one item of environmental emission cost E:
E HTS ＝kQ HTS (17)
wherein k is an environmental emission cost coefficient (formulated and issued by national environmental protection agency), Q HTS Is the carbon emission amount of the superconducting cable, calculated as follows.
Q HTS ＝OM×0.0876εP HTS (18)
In the formula, OM is an electric quantity marginal discharge factor, and is published year by the climate department of national institute of development and improvement. P is HTS The total energy consumption (W) of the superconducting cable is every year; ε is the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour in units of yuan/kilowatt-hour;
d is a discount factor for converting the running cost of a single year into the running cost in the whole life cycle by using a proper discount rate, namely an equal payment current value coefficient.
Figure GDA0003923837280000271
Wherein i is the discount rate; and n is the service life of the cable. (P/A, i, n) is the equal payment present value coefficient.
(3) Lifecycle cost of superconducting cable
The cost of laying the channel is taken into the life cycle cost, and the life cycle cost of the superconducting cable is as follows:
C HTS ＝A HTS +O HTS (20)
in the formula: c HTS Life cycle cost for the superconducting cable; a. The HTS Initial investment cost for the superconducting cable system; o is HTS The operation and maintenance cost of the superconducting cable is reduced.
Figure GDA0003923837280000272
In the formula: c HTS Life cycle cost for the superconducting cable; l is the cable length (m), I HTS Is rated transmission current (kA) and rated transmission current (chi) of the superconducting cable HTS Is the cost per ka.m of the superconducting cable body (ten thousand yuan/ka.m); r is the refrigerator unit capacity cost (ten thousand yuan/kW); theta is the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and is given in W/m; omega HTS The unit of transmission loss of the superconducting cable per unit length is W/m; τ is the thermal load at the cable termination location in units of W; m is a unit of HTS Is the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable, and λ is the channel cost per unit length of a single hole (ten thousand yuan/km); ε is the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour in units of yuan/kilowatt-hour; d is a discount factor for converting the operation cost of a single year into the operation cost in the whole life cycle by using a proper discount rate, namely an equal payment current value coefficient; ρ is the refrigerator coefficient of performance; k is the environmental emission cost coefficient (from the national environmental protection department)Subscription publishing), Q HTS Is the carbon emission of the superconducting cable.
Two) lifecycle cost calculation for conventional cables
Similarly, the life cycle cost C of conventional cables U Comprises the following steps:
C U ＝lI U χ U +0.0876εdlω U +m U λl+kQ U (22)
wherein l is the cable length in m; I.C. A U Is the rated current of the conventional cable with the unit of kA, chi U The cost of the conventional cable body per kA.m is ten thousand yuan per kA.m; omega U Is the transmission loss per unit length of a conventional cable; m is a unit of U The number of channels required for laying conventional cables; q U Is the conventional cable carbon emission.
Figure GDA0003923837280000281
In the formula: m is U The number of channels required for laying conventional cables; ceiling () represents a Ceiling function; s is the capacity (MW) to be transmitted, U is the rated voltage (kV), I U Is the rated transmission current (kA) of a conventional cable.
Q U ＝OM×0.0876εP U (24)
In the formula: q U Is the conventional cable carbon emission. OM is an electric quantity marginal emission factor and is published year by the national institute of development and reform. ε is the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour in units of yuan/kilowatt-hour; p U Is the total annual conventional cable energy consumption (W).
Step three: conventional cable and superconducting cable model selection method considering life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance analysis
One) dynamic profit and loss balance analysis of cable model selection scheme
The profit and loss balance analysis is an analysis method of engineering economics, is also called as cost point analysis, analyzes the influence of uncertain factors on the economic performance of a project by calculating the sales volume or the production volume of the profit and loss balance point, determines the economic feasibility of the project and provides judgment basis for project establishment.
The model selection of the superconducting cable and the conventional cable is carried out in a fixed scene, and when the applicable boundary condition of the superconducting cable is determined, the time value of capital must be considered due to the long operating time span of the cable, namely, dynamic profit and loss balance analysis is adopted, and the discount rate is determined by combining the specific conditions of the power industry.
According to the traditional profit-loss balance analysis, aiming at the profit situation of a single scheme, multiple schemes are often required to be compared and selected in actual engineering, the multiple scheme profit-loss balance analysis takes common uncertain factors as independent variables (common variables) and the effects (output or input and the like) of each scheme as dependent variables, functional relationships between the effects of different schemes and the common variables are established, critical points with the same effects of different schemes are calculated, and variable intervals corresponding to the better effects of different schemes are determined. When the multi-scheme profit-loss balance analysis is carried out, if the life cycles of different schemes are different, the schemes with different life cycles can be compared and selected by using an annual value method.
The length of the cable can be used as a common variable of profit and loss balance analysis of the superconducting cable application scheme, critical conditions of the superconducting cable application can be solved based on dynamic profit and loss balance analysis, and the critical conditions can be obtained by the following analysis:
C HTS (l)≤C U (l) (25)
when this expression is satisfied, a superconducting cable scheme should be selected.
II) method for determining type selection boundary conditions of cable scheme
Substituting the left side in the formula (25) with the formula (21) and substituting the right side in the formula (25) with the formula (22) deduces the cable critical length calculation based on the life cycle cost as shown in the formula (26):
Figure GDA0003923837280000301
in the formula: l is the cable length (m); r is the transmission power ratio of the superconducting cable to the conventional cable; i is U 、I HTS Rated transmission currents (kA) of the conventional cable and the superconducting cable, respectively; chi shape U 、χ HTS Respectively conventional cable and superconducting currentCost per ka.m of the cable body (ten thousand yuan/ka.m); r is the refrigerator unit capacity cost (ten thousand yuan/kW); theta is the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and is given in W/m; omega U 、ω HTS The transmission loss unit of the conventional cable and the superconducting cable with the unit length is W/m; ε is the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour in units of yuan/kilowatt-hour; d is a discount factor for converting the operation cost of a single year into the operation cost in the whole life cycle by using a proper discount rate, namely an equal payment current value coefficient; m is U 、m HTS The number of channels required by laying a conventional cable and a superconducting cable is respectively; λ is the channel cost per unit length of a single hole (ten thousand yuan/km); τ is the thermal load at the cable termination location, in units of W; ρ is the coefficient of performance of the refrigerator; k is the environmental emission cost coefficient (formulated and released by the national environmental protection department), Q U 、Q HTS The carbon emissions of conventional cables and superconducting cables, respectively.
Definition of l in the formula min Is the critical length, i.e.:
Figure GDA0003923837280000302
in the formula: l is the cable length (m); r is the transmission power ratio of the superconducting cable to the conventional cable; I.C. A U 、I HTS Rated transmission currents (kA) of the conventional cable and the superconducting cable, respectively; chi shape U 、χ HTS The cost per ka.m of the conventional cable and the superconducting cable body (ten thousand yuan/ka.m), respectively; r is the refrigerator unit capacity cost (ten thousand yuan/kW); theta is the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and is given in W/m; omega U 、ω HTS The transmission loss unit of the conventional cable and the superconducting cable with the unit length is W/m; ε is the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour in units of yuan/kilowatt-hour; d is a discount factor for converting the operation cost of a single year into the operation cost in the whole life cycle by using a proper discount rate, namely an equal payment current value coefficient; m is U 、m HTS The number of channels required for laying the conventional cable and the superconducting cable is respectively; λ is the channel cost per unit length of a single hole (ten thousand units/km); τ is the thermal load at the end position of the cable, inW; ρ is the refrigerator coefficient of performance; k is the environmental emission cost coefficient (formulated and released by the national environmental protection department), Q U 、Q HTS The carbon emissions of conventional cables and superconducting cables, respectively.
When the denominator of the above formula is less than 0, the critical length l is calculated min The value is negative, which indicates that the profit-loss balance point of the full life cycle cost of the superconducting cable and the common cable does not exist, namely the life cycle cost of the superconducting cable under any length is higher than that of the conventional cable; when the denominator of the above formula is positive,/ min Value is positive over the cable length l>l min The life cycle cost of superconducting cables can be lower than conventional cables.
By making the denominator of the above equation equal to 0, it can be determined that the critical conditions for applying the superconducting cable are:
RI U χ U -I HTS χ HTS -r(θ+ω HTS )+0.0876εd[(Rω U -ω HTS )-ρ(θ+ω HTS )]+(m U -m HTS )λ≥0 (28)
in the formula: l is the cable length (m); r is the transmission power ratio of the superconducting cable to the conventional cable; i is U 、I HTS Rated transmission currents (kA) of the conventional cable and the superconducting cable, respectively; chi-type food processing machine U 、χ HTS The cost per ka.m of the conventional cable and the superconducting cable body (ten thousand yuan/ka.m), respectively; r is the refrigerator unit capacity cost (ten thousand yuan/kW); theta is the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and is given in W/m; omega U 、ω HTS The transmission loss unit of the unit-length conventional cable and the unit-length superconducting cable is W/m; ε is the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour in units of yuan/kilowatt-hour; d is a discount factor for converting the operation cost of a single year into the operation cost in the whole life cycle by using a proper discount rate, namely an equal payment current value coefficient; m is U 、m HTS The number of channels required by laying a conventional cable and a superconducting cable is respectively; λ is the channel cost per unit length of a single hole (ten thousand units/km).
And the actual length L of the electric power needing to be laid meets the following requirements:
L≥l min (29)
if equation (28) or (29) is not satisfied, it is determined that a conventional cable is applied.
A second aspect.
Referring to fig. 5-7, an embodiment of the present invention provides a cable type selection system based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance, comprising:
a total loss calculation module 10 of the superconducting cable, configured to obtain a transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, a heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and a heat load at a terminal position of the superconducting cable, and calculate the total loss of the superconducting cable according to the transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and the heat load at the terminal position of the superconducting cable.
Wherein a total loss of the superconducting cable includes: energy loss due to transmission loss of the superconducting cable and energy loss due to thermal load in the superconducting cable.
In a specific embodiment, the total loss calculating module 10 of the superconducting cable includes:
and the energy loss calculation submodule 11 is used for obtaining the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable according to the transmission loss of the unit length of the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P c HTS ＝ω HTS l；
wherein, P c HTS Is the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable, and the unit is W, omega HTS Is the transmission loss per unit length, in W/m, and l is the length of the cable, in m.
The energy loss calculation submodule 12 is configured to obtain an energy loss caused by a thermal load in the superconducting cable according to a transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, a thermal loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and a thermal load at a terminal position of the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P t HTS ＝(θ+ω HTS )l+τ；
wherein, P t HTS Is the energy loss due to the thermal load in the superconducting cable, and has a unit of W, and theta is the heat loss per unit length of the cable, and has a unit of W/m, omega HTS The unit of transmission loss of the superconducting cable per unit length is W/m, l is the length of the cable, m, τ is the thermal load at the end position of the cable, and W.
And the total loss calculation submodule 13 of the superconducting cable is used for obtaining the total loss of the superconducting cable according to the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable and the energy loss caused by the thermal load in the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P HTS ＝ρP t HTS +P c HTS ；
wherein, P HTS Representing the total loss, P, of the superconducting cable t HTS Is the energy loss due to the thermal load in the superconducting cable, P c HTS Is the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable, and rho is the coefficient of performance of the refrigerating machine.
And the operation and maintenance cost model calculation module 20 of the superconducting cable is used for obtaining the carbon emission cost of the superconducting cable and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable, and obtaining the operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable according to the total loss of the superconducting cable, the carbon emission cost of the superconducting cable and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable.
In a specific embodiment, specifically, the following formula is used to calculate:
O HTS ＝(0.0876εP HTS +E HTS +M HTS )×d；
wherein, O HTS Is the operation and maintenance cost of the superconducting cable, P HTS The unit of total energy consumption of the superconducting cable is W; ε is the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour, in units of yuan/kilowatt-hour; e HTS And M HTS Respectively, the carbon emission cost and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable every year, and d is a discount factor for converting the operation cost of a single year into the operation cost in the whole life cycle with a proper discount rate.
The initial investment model calculation module 30 of the superconducting cable system is configured to obtain a rated transmission current of the superconducting cable, a unit cost of a superconducting cable body, a number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable, and a channel cost per unit length of a single hole, and obtain an initial investment model of the superconducting cable system according to an energy loss caused by a thermal load in the superconducting cable, the rated transmission current of the superconducting cable, the unit cost of the superconducting cable body, the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable, and the channel cost per unit length of the single hole.
Wherein the initial investment model of the superconducting cable system includes: the purchase cost of the cable, the purchase cost of the refrigeration equipment and the laying cost of the superconducting cable.
In one embodiment, the initial investment model calculation module 30 of the superconducting cable system includes:
and the purchase cost model calculation submodule 31 of the superconducting cable is used for obtaining a purchase cost model of the superconducting cable according to the rated transmission current of the superconducting cable and the unit cost of the superconducting cable body.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000341
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure GDA0003923837280000342
for the purchase cost of the cable, I HTS Rated transmission current of superconducting cable, chi HTS Is the unit cost of the superconducting cable body.
And the purchase cost model calculation submodule 32 of the refrigeration equipment is used for obtaining a purchase cost model of the refrigeration equipment according to the energy loss caused by the heat load in the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000343
wherein r is the unit capacity cost of the refrigerating machine, and the unit is ten thousand yuan/kW, P t HTS Is the energy loss due to thermal load in the superconducting cable.
The superconducting cable laying cost model calculation submodule 33 is configured to obtain a superconducting cable laying cost model according to the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and the channel cost per unit length of the single hole.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000351
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
Figure GDA0003923837280000352
is the laying cost of the superconducting cable, m HTS Is the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable, and λ is the channel cost per unit length of a single hole.
And the initial investment model calculation submodule 34 of the superconducting cable system is used for obtaining an initial investment model of the superconducting cable system according to the purchase cost model of the superconducting cable, the purchase cost model of the refrigeration equipment and the laying cost model of the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000353
wherein, A HTS Is an initial investment of the superconducting cable system,
Figure GDA0003923837280000354
is the purchase cost of the cable, <' > based on the number of subscribers>
Figure GDA0003923837280000355
Is the purchase cost of the refrigeration appliance>
Figure GDA0003923837280000356
Is the laying cost of the superconducting cable. />
And the life cycle cost model calculation module 40 of the superconducting cable is used for obtaining the life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable according to the operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable and the initial investment model of the superconducting cable system.
In a specific embodiment, the calculation is specifically performed by the following formula:
C HTS ＝A HTS +O HTS ；
wherein, C HTS Is the life cycle cost of the superconducting cable, A HTS Initial investment cost of the superconducting cable system; o is HTS Is the operation and maintenance cost of the superconducting cable.
A total loss calculation module 50 of the conventional cable, configured to obtain a transmission loss of the conventional cable in a unit length, and calculate a total loss of the conventional cable according to the transmission loss of the conventional cable in the unit length; wherein the total loss of the conventional cable comprises: the energy loss due to the transmission loss of the conventional cable.
In a specific embodiment, the calculation is specifically performed by the following formula:
P U ＝P c U ＝ω U l；
wherein, P U Is the total loss, P, of the conventional cable c U Is the transmission loss, omega U Is the transmission loss per unit length of a conventional cable and is the length of the cable.
And the life cycle cost model calculation module 60 of the conventional cable is used for obtaining the rated current of the conventional cable, the unit cost of the conventional cable body, the transmission loss of the unit length of the conventional cable, the number of channels required for laying the conventional cable and the carbon emission of the conventional cable, and obtaining the life cycle cost model of the conventional cable according to the rated current of the conventional cable, the unit cost of the conventional cable body, the transmission loss of the unit length of the conventional cable, the number of channels required for laying the conventional cable and the carbon emission of the conventional cable.
In a specific embodiment, specifically, the following formula is used to calculate:
C U ＝lI U χ U +0.0876εdlω U +m U λl+kQ U ；
wherein l is the cable length in m, I U Is the rated current of the conventional cable with the unit of kA, chi U Is the unit cost of the conventional cable body, and the unit is ten thousand yuan/kA.m, omega U Is the transmission loss per unit length of the conventional cable, m U Is the number of channels, Q, required for laying conventional cables U Is the conventional cable carbon emission.
The cable cost value calculation module 70 is configured to obtain an actual length value of power to be laid, input the actual length value of power to be laid to the life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable to obtain a cost value of the superconducting cable, and input the length value of the cable to the life cycle cost model of the conventional cable to obtain a cost value of the conventional cable.
A first comparison module 80, configured to compare the superconducting cable cost value with the conventional cable cost value; selecting a superconducting cable if the cost value of the superconducting cable is less than the cost value of the conventional cable; otherwise, a conventional cable is selected.
Referring to fig. 6-8, an embodiment of the present invention provides a cable type selection system based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance, comprising:
a total loss calculating module 10 of the superconducting cable, configured to obtain a transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, a heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and a heat load at a terminal position of the superconducting cable, and calculate the total loss of the superconducting cable according to the transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and the heat load at the terminal position of the superconducting cable.
Wherein a total loss of the superconducting cable includes: energy loss due to transmission loss of the superconducting cable and energy loss due to thermal load in the superconducting cable.
In a specific embodiment, the total loss calculating module 10 of the superconducting cable includes:
and the energy loss calculation submodule 11 is used for obtaining the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable according to the transmission loss of the unit length of the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P c HTS ＝ω HTS l；
wherein, P c HTS Is the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable, and the unit is W, omega HTS Is the transmission loss per unit length, in W/m, and l is the length of the cable, in m.
The energy loss calculation submodule 12 is configured to obtain the energy loss caused by the thermal load in the superconducting cable according to the transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, the thermal loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and the thermal load at the terminal position of the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P t HTS ＝(θ+ω HTS )l+τ；
wherein, P t HTS Is the energy loss due to the thermal load in the superconducting cable, and has a unit of W, and theta is the heat loss per unit length of the cable, and has a unit of W/m, omega HTS The unit of transmission loss of the superconducting cable per unit length is W/m, l is the length of the cable, m, τ is the thermal load at the end position of the cable, and W.
And the total loss calculation submodule 13 of the superconducting cable is used for obtaining the total loss of the superconducting cable according to the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable and the energy loss caused by the thermal load in the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P HTS ＝ρP t HTS +P c HTS ；
wherein, P HTS Representing the total loss, P, of the superconducting cable t HTS Is the energy loss due to the thermal load in the superconducting cable, P c HTS Is the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable, and rho is the coefficient of performance of the refrigerating machine.
And the operation and maintenance cost model calculation module 20 of the superconducting cable is used for obtaining the carbon emission cost of the superconducting cable and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable, and obtaining the operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable according to the total loss of the superconducting cable, the carbon emission cost of the superconducting cable and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable.
In a specific embodiment, the calculation is specifically performed by the following formula:
O HTS ＝(0.0876εP HTS +E HTS +M HTS )×d；
wherein, O HTS Is the operation and maintenance cost, P, of the superconducting cable HTS The unit of total energy consumption of the superconducting cable is W; ε is the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour, in units of yuan/kilowatt-hour; e HTS And M HTS Respectively, the carbon emission cost and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable every year, and d is a discount factor for converting the operation cost of a single year into the operation cost in the whole life cycle with a proper discount rate.
The initial investment model calculation module 30 of the superconducting cable system is configured to obtain a rated transmission current of the superconducting cable, a unit cost of a superconducting cable body, a number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable, and a channel cost per unit length of a single hole, and obtain an initial investment model of the superconducting cable system according to an energy loss caused by a thermal load in the superconducting cable, the rated transmission current of the superconducting cable, the unit cost of the superconducting cable body, the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable, and the channel cost per unit length of the single hole.
Wherein the initial investment model of the superconducting cable system includes: the purchase cost of the cable, the purchase cost of the refrigeration equipment, and the laying cost of the superconducting cable.
In one embodiment, the initial investment model calculation module 30 of the superconducting cable system includes:
and the purchase cost model calculation submodule 31 of the superconducting cable is used for obtaining a purchase cost model of the superconducting cable according to the rated transmission current of the superconducting cable and the unit cost of the superconducting cable body.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000391
/>
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
Figure GDA0003923837280000392
for the purchase cost of the cable, I HTS Rated transmission current of superconducting cable, chi HTS Is the unit cost of the superconducting cable body.
And the purchase cost model calculation submodule 32 of the refrigeration equipment is used for obtaining a purchase cost model of the refrigeration equipment according to the energy loss caused by the heat load in the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000393
wherein r is the unit capacity cost of the refrigerator, and the unit is ten thousand yuan/kW, P t HTS Is the energy loss due to thermal load in the superconducting cable.
And the superconducting cable laying cost model calculation submodule 33 is configured to obtain a superconducting cable laying cost model according to the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and the channel cost per unit length of the single hole.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000401
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
Figure GDA0003923837280000402
is the laying cost of the superconducting cable, m HTS Is the number of passages required for laying the superconducting cable, and λ is a single holeThe cost of the channel per unit length.
And the initial investment model calculation submodule 34 of the superconducting cable system is used for obtaining an initial investment model of the superconducting cable system according to the purchase cost model of the superconducting cable, the purchase cost model of the refrigeration equipment and the laying cost model of the superconducting cable.
Specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure GDA0003923837280000403
wherein A is HTS Is an initial investment of the superconducting cable system,
Figure GDA0003923837280000404
is the purchase cost of the cable, based on the number of hours, or based on the number of hours, of the subscriber>
Figure GDA0003923837280000405
Is the purchase cost of the refrigeration appliance>
Figure GDA0003923837280000406
Is the laying cost of the superconducting cable.
And the life cycle cost model calculation module 40 of the superconducting cable is used for obtaining the life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable according to the operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable and the initial investment model of the superconducting cable system.
In a specific embodiment, specifically, the following formula is used to calculate:
C HTS ＝A HTS +O HTS ；
wherein, C HTS Is the life cycle cost of the superconducting cable, A HTS Initial investment cost of the superconducting cable system; o is HTS Is the operation and maintenance cost of the superconducting cable.
A total loss calculation module 50 of the conventional cable, configured to obtain a transmission loss per unit length of the conventional cable, and calculate a total loss of the conventional cable according to the transmission loss per unit length of the conventional cable; wherein the total loss of the conventional cable comprises: the energy loss due to the transmission loss of the conventional cable.
In a specific embodiment, the calculation is specifically performed by the following formula:
P U ＝P c U ＝ω U l；
wherein, P U Is the total loss, P, of the conventional cable c U Is the transmission loss, omega U Is the transmission loss per unit length of a conventional cable and is the length of the cable.
And the life cycle cost model calculation module 60 of the conventional cable is used for obtaining the rated current of the conventional cable, the unit cost of the conventional cable body, the transmission loss of the unit length of the conventional cable, the number of channels required for laying the conventional cable and the carbon emission of the conventional cable, and obtaining the life cycle cost model of the conventional cable according to the rated current of the conventional cable, the unit cost of the conventional cable body, the transmission loss of the unit length of the conventional cable, the number of channels required for laying the conventional cable and the carbon emission of the conventional cable.
In a specific embodiment, the calculation is specifically performed by the following formula:
C U ＝lI U χ U +0.0876εdlω U +m U λl+kQ U ；
wherein l is the cable length in m, I U Is the rated current of the conventional cable with the unit of kA, chi U Is the unit cost of the conventional cable body, and the unit is ten thousand yuan/kA.m, omega U Is the transmission loss per unit length of the conventional cable, m U Is the number of channels, Q, required for laying conventional cables U Is the conventional cable carbon emission.
And a cable critical length value calculation module 71, configured to obtain a cable critical length value according to the life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable and the life cycle cost model of the conventional cable.
In a specific embodiment, specifically, the following formula is used to calculate:
Figure GDA0003923837280000421
wherein l min Is the critical length of the cable, and R is the transmission power ratio of the superconducting cable to the conventional cable; i is U 、I HTS Rated transmission current, chi, of conventional and superconducting cables, respectively U 、χ HTS Unit cost of the conventional cable and the superconducting cable body, r unit capacity cost of the refrigerator, theta heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and omega U 、ω HTS Respectively, the transmission loss of a unit-length conventional cable and a superconducting cable, epsilon is the power cost per kilowatt hour, d is a discount factor for converting the operation cost of a single year into the operation cost in the whole life cycle by using a proper discount rate, and m U 、m HTS The number of channels required for laying a conventional cable and a superconducting cable respectively, lambda is the channel cost of a unit length of a single hole, tau is the thermal load of a terminal position of the cable, rho is the performance coefficient of a refrigerating machine, k is the environment-friendly discharge cost coefficient, and Q is the discharge cost coefficient U 、Q HTS The carbon emissions of conventional cables and superconducting cables, respectively.
The second comparison module 81 is configured to obtain an actual length value of the electric power to be laid, and compare the actual length value of the electric power to be laid with the critical length value of the cable; if the actual length value of the power to be laid is larger than or equal to the critical length value of the cable, selecting a superconducting cable; otherwise, a conventional cable is selected.
The invention provides a cable model selection system based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance, which obtains a superconducting cable cost value and a conventional cable cost value according to an actual power length value by establishing a life cycle cost model of a superconducting cable and a life cycle cost model of a conventional cable, wherein the life cycle cost model consists of an operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable and an initial investment model of the superconducting cable system, selects the most appropriate cable material and cost price by comparing the superconducting cable cost value and the conventional cable cost value, and scientifically and comprehensively analyzes the comparison of the superconducting cable and a common cable from the perspective of the life cycle cost by considering the channel cost and the operation and maintenance cost under the scene of improving the safety and reliability of power grid power supply such as high-capacity power supply and low-voltage interconnection of urban central substations and the like so as to improve the comprehensive efficiency of equipment investment.
In a third aspect.
The present invention provides an electronic device, including:
a processor, a memory, and a bus;
the bus is used for connecting the processor and the memory;
the memory is used for storing operation instructions;
the processor is configured to invoke the operation instructions, and the executable instructions cause the processor to perform an operation corresponding to a cable model selection method based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance as shown in the first aspect of the present application.
In an alternative embodiment, an electronic device is provided, as shown in fig. 9, the electronic device 5000 shown in fig. 9 includes: a processor 5001 and a memory 5003. The processor 5001 and the memory 5003 are coupled, such as via a bus 5002. Optionally, the electronic device 5000 may also include a transceiver 5004. It should be noted that the transceiver 5004 is not limited to one in practical application, and the structure of the electronic device 5000 is not limited to the embodiment of the present application.
The processor 5001 may be a CPU, general purpose processor, DSP, ASIC, FPGA or other programmable logic device, transistor logic device, hardware component, or any combination thereof. Which may implement or perform the various illustrative logical blocks, modules, and circuits described in connection with the disclosure. The processor 5001 may also be a combination of computing functions, e.g., comprising one or more microprocessors, a combination of a DSP and a microprocessor, or the like.
Bus 5002 can include a path that conveys information between the aforementioned components. Bus 5002 may be a PCI bus or EISA bus or the like. The bus 5002 may be divided into an address bus, a data bus, a control bus, and the like. For ease of illustration, only one thick line is shown in FIG. 9, but that does not indicate only one bus or one type of bus.
Memory 5003 may be, but is not limited to, ROM or other type of static storage device that can store static information and instructions, RAM or other type of dynamic storage device that can store information and instructions, EEPROM, CD-ROM or other optical disk storage, optical disk storage (including compact disk, laser disk, optical disk, digital versatile disk, blu-ray disk, etc.), magnetic disk storage media or other magnetic storage devices, or any other medium that can be used to carry or store desired program code in the form of instructions or data structures and that can be accessed by a computer.
The memory 5003 is used for storing application code that implements aspects of the present application and is controlled in execution by the processor 5001. The processor 5001 is configured to execute application program code stored in the memory 5003 to implement aspects illustrated in any of the method embodiments described previously.
Among them, electronic devices include but are not limited to: mobile terminals such as mobile phones, notebook computers, digital broadcast receivers, PDAs (personal digital assistants), PADs (tablet computers), PMPs (portable multimedia players), in-vehicle terminals (e.g., in-vehicle navigation terminals), and the like, and fixed terminals such as digital TVs, desktop computers, and the like.
A fourth aspect.
The present invention provides a computer readable storage medium having stored thereon a computer program which, when executed by a processor, implements a method for cable typing based on balancing life cycle cost and dynamic profit and loss as presented in the first aspect of the present application.
Yet another embodiment of the present application provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, which, when run on a computer, enables the computer to perform the corresponding content of the foregoing method embodiments.

Claims (8)

1. A cable model selection method based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring the transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable and the heat load at the terminal position of the superconducting cable, and calculating the total loss of the superconducting cable according to the transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable and the heat load at the terminal position of the superconducting cable; wherein the total loss of the superconducting cable includes: energy loss due to transmission loss of the superconducting cable and energy loss due to thermal load in the superconducting cable;
acquiring the carbon emission cost of the superconducting cable and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable, and acquiring an operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable according to the total loss of the superconducting cable, the carbon emission cost of the superconducting cable and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable;
obtaining rated transmission current of a superconducting cable, unit cost of a superconducting cable body, the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and channel cost of unit length of a single hole, and obtaining an initial investment model of a superconducting cable system according to energy loss caused by heat load in the superconducting cable, the rated transmission current of the superconducting cable, the unit cost of the superconducting cable body, the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and the channel cost of unit length of the single hole; wherein the initial investment model of the superconducting cable system includes: the purchase cost of the cable, the purchase cost of the refrigeration equipment and the laying cost of the superconducting cable;
obtaining a life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable according to the operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable and an initial investment model of the superconducting cable system;
acquiring the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length, and calculating the total loss of the conventional cable according to the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length; wherein the total loss of the conventional cable comprises: energy loss due to transmission loss of conventional cables;
acquiring rated current of a conventional cable, unit cost of a conventional cable body, transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length, the number of channels required for laying the conventional cable and carbon emission of the conventional cable, and acquiring a life cycle cost model of the conventional cable according to the rated current of the conventional cable, the unit cost of the conventional cable body, the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length, the number of channels required for laying the conventional cable and the carbon emission of the conventional cable;
acquiring an actual length value of power to be laid, inputting the actual length value of the power to be laid to a life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable to obtain a cost value of the superconducting cable, and inputting the actual length value of the power to be laid to a life cycle cost model of a conventional cable to obtain a cost value of the conventional cable;
comparing the superconducting cable cost value with the conventional cable cost value; if the cost value of the superconducting cable is smaller than the cost value of the conventional cable, selecting the superconducting cable; otherwise, selecting a conventional cable;
obtaining a critical length value of the cable according to the life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable and the life cycle cost model of the conventional cable, wherein the formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0003923837270000021
wherein l min Is the critical length of the cable, and R is the transmission power ratio of the superconducting cable to the conventional cable; I.C. A U 、I HTS Rated transmission current, chi, of conventional and superconducting cables, respectively U 、χ HTS Unit cost of the conventional cable and the superconducting cable body, r unit capacity cost of the refrigerator, theta heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and omega U 、ω HTS Respectively, the transmission loss of a unit-length conventional cable and a superconducting cable, epsilon is the power cost per kilowatt hour, d is a discount factor for converting the operation cost of a single year into the operation cost in the whole life cycle by using a proper discount rate, and m U 、m HTS Respectively, the number of channels required for laying a conventional cable and a superconducting cable, lambda is the channel cost of a unit length of a single hole, tau is the thermal load of a cable terminal position, rho is the performance coefficient of a refrigerating machine, k is the environmental-friendly discharge cost coefficient, and Q U 、Q HTS The carbon emissions of conventional cables and superconducting cables, respectively;
acquiring an actual length value of electric power to be laid, and comparing the actual length value of the electric power to be laid with the critical length value of the cable; if the actual length value of the power to be laid is larger than or equal to the critical length value of the cable, selecting a superconducting cable; otherwise, a conventional cable is selected.
2. The method for cable model selection based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance of claim 1, wherein the calculating of the total loss of the superconducting cable according to the transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable and the heat load at the terminal position of the superconducting cable comprises:
obtaining energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable according to the transmission loss of the unit length of the superconducting cable; specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P c HTS ＝ω HTS l；
wherein, P c HTS Is the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable, and the unit is W, omega HTS Is the transmission loss of the superconducting cable per unit length, the unit is W/m, l is the cable length, the unit is m;
obtaining energy loss caused by heat load in the superconducting cable according to transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable and heat load at a terminal position of the superconducting cable; specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P t HTS ＝(θ+ω HTS )l+τ；
wherein, P t HTS Is the energy loss due to the thermal load in the superconducting cable, and is given in W, theta is the heat loss of the superconducting cable per unit length of the cable, and is given in W/m, omega HTS The unit of transmission loss of the superconducting cable with unit length is W/m, l is the cable length, the unit is m, tau is the thermal load of the cable terminal position, and the unit is W;
obtaining the total loss of the superconducting cable according to the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable and the energy loss caused by the thermal load in the superconducting cable; specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P HTS ＝ρP t HTS +P c HTS ；
wherein, P HTS Representing the total loss, P, of the superconducting cable t HTS Is the energy loss due to the thermal load in the superconducting cable, P c HTS Is the energy loss caused by the transmission loss of the superconducting cable, and rho is the coefficient of performance of the refrigerating machine.
3. The cable model selection method based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance as claimed in claim 2, wherein the operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable is obtained according to the total loss of the superconducting cable, the carbon emission cost of the superconducting cable and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable, and is specifically calculated by the following formula:
O HTS ＝(0.0876εP HTS +E HTS +M HTS )×d；
wherein, O HTS Is the operation and maintenance cost of the superconducting cable, P HTS Is the total energy consumption of the superconducting cable, with the unit being W; ε is the cost of electricity per kilowatt-hour, the unit is Yuan/kilowatt-hour; e HTS And M HTS Respectively, the carbon emission cost and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable every year, and d is a discount factor for converting the operation cost of a single year into the operation cost in the whole life cycle with a proper discount rate.
4. The cable model selection method based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance as claimed in claim 2, wherein the obtaining of the initial investment model of the superconducting cable system according to the energy loss caused by the thermal load in the superconducting cable, the rated transmission current of the superconducting cable, the unit cost of the superconducting cable body, the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and the channel cost per unit length of the single hole comprises:
obtaining a purchase cost model of the superconducting cable according to the rated transmission current of the superconducting cable and the unit cost of the superconducting cable body; specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure FDA0003923837270000041
wherein, the first and the second end of the pipe are connected with each other,
Figure FDA0003923837270000042
for purchase cost of superconducting cable, I HTS Rated transmission current of superconducting cable, chi HTS Is the unit cost of the superconducting cable body, l is the cable length;
obtaining a purchase cost model of the refrigeration equipment according to energy loss caused by heat load in the superconducting cable; specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure FDA0003923837270000051
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0003923837270000052
is the purchase cost of the refrigeration equipment, r is the unit capacity cost of the refrigerator, and the unit is ten thousand yuan/kW, P t HTS Energy loss caused by thermal load in the superconducting cable;
obtaining a laying cost model of the superconducting cable according to the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and the channel cost of the unit length of the single hole; specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure FDA0003923837270000053
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0003923837270000054
is the laying cost of the superconducting cable, m HTS Is the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable, λ is the channel cost per unit length of a single hole, and l is the cable length;
obtaining an initial investment model of a superconducting cable system according to the purchase cost model of the superconducting cable, the purchase cost model of the refrigeration equipment and the laying cost model of the superconducting cable; specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
Figure FDA0003923837270000055
wherein, A HTS Is the initial investment cost of the superconducting cable system,
Figure FDA0003923837270000056
is the purchase cost of the cable, based on the number of hours, or based on the number of hours, of the subscriber>
Figure FDA0003923837270000057
Is the purchase cost of the refrigeration appliance>
Figure FDA0003923837270000058
Is the laying cost of the superconducting cable.
5. The cable model selection method based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance as claimed in claim 1, wherein the life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable is obtained according to the operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable and the initial investment model of the superconducting cable system, and is specifically calculated by the following formula:
C HTS ＝A HTS +O HTS ；
wherein, C HTS Is the life cycle cost of the superconducting cable, A HTS Initial investment cost of the superconducting cable system; o is HTS Is the operation and maintenance cost of the superconducting cable.
6. The cable model selection method based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance as claimed in claim 1, wherein the total loss of the conventional cable is calculated according to the transmission loss per unit length of the conventional cable; specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
P U ＝P c U ＝ω U l；
wherein, P U Is the total loss, P, of the conventional cable c U Is the transmission loss, omega, of a conventional cable U Is the transmission loss per unit length of a conventional cable and is the cable length.
7. The cable model selection method based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance of claim 1, wherein the life cycle cost model of a conventional cable is obtained according to the rated current of the conventional cable, the unit cost of the conventional cable body, the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length, the number of channels required for laying the conventional cable and the carbon emission of the conventional cable; specifically, it is calculated by the following formula:
C U ＝lI U χ U +0.0876εdlω U +m U λl+kQ U ；
wherein, C U Is the life cycle cost of a conventional cable, l is the cable length in m, I U Is rated current of a conventional cable with the unit of kA, chi U Is the unit cost of the conventional cable body, the unit is ten thousand yuan/kA.m, epsilon is the electric power cost of each kilowatt hour, and the unit is yuan/kilowatt hour; e HTS And M HTS The carbon emission cost and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable are respectively annually, d is a discount factor for converting the operation cost of a single year into the operation cost in the whole life cycle by using the appropriate discount rate, omega U Is the transmission loss per unit length of the conventional cable, m U Is the number of channels required for laying conventional cables, lambda is the channel cost per unit length of a single hole, k is the environmental protection discharge cost coefficient, Q U Is the conventional cable carbon emission.
8. A cable typing system based on life cycle cost and dynamic profit-loss balance, comprising:
a total loss calculation module of the superconducting cable, configured to obtain a transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, a heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and a heat load at a terminal position of the superconducting cable, and calculate a total loss of the superconducting cable according to the transmission loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, the heat loss per unit length of the superconducting cable, and the heat load at the terminal position of the superconducting cable; wherein a total loss of the superconducting cable includes: energy loss due to transmission loss of the superconducting cable and energy loss due to thermal load in the superconducting cable;
the operation and maintenance cost model calculation module of the superconducting cable is used for obtaining the carbon emission cost of the superconducting cable and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable, and obtaining an operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable according to the total loss of the superconducting cable, the carbon emission cost of the superconducting cable and the maintenance cost of the superconducting cable;
the initial investment model calculation module is used for obtaining rated transmission current of the superconducting cable, unit cost of a superconducting cable body, the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and the channel cost of unit length of a single hole, and obtaining an initial investment model of the superconducting cable system according to energy loss caused by heat load in the superconducting cable, the rated transmission current of the superconducting cable, the unit cost of the superconducting cable body, the number of channels required for laying the superconducting cable and the channel cost of unit length of the single hole; wherein the initial investment model of the superconducting cable system includes: the purchase cost of the cable, the purchase cost of the refrigeration equipment and the laying cost of the superconducting cable;
the life cycle cost model calculation module of the superconducting cable is used for obtaining a life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable according to the operation and maintenance cost model of the superconducting cable and an initial investment model of a superconducting cable system;
the total loss calculation module of the conventional cable is used for acquiring the transmission loss of the unit length of the conventional cable and calculating the total loss of the conventional cable according to the transmission loss of the unit length of the conventional cable; wherein the total loss of the conventional cable comprises: energy loss due to transmission loss of conventional cables;
the life cycle cost model calculation module of the conventional cable is used for acquiring the rated current of the conventional cable, the unit cost of a conventional cable body, the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length, the number of channels required by laying the conventional cable and the carbon emission of the conventional cable, and acquiring a life cycle cost model of the conventional cable according to the rated current of the conventional cable, the unit cost of the conventional cable body, the transmission loss of the conventional cable in unit length, the number of channels required by laying the conventional cable and the carbon emission of the conventional cable;
the cable cost value calculation module is used for acquiring an actual length value of power to be laid, inputting the actual length value of the power to be laid to a life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable to obtain a cost value of the superconducting cable, and inputting the actual length value of the power to be laid to a life cycle cost model of a conventional cable to obtain a cost value of the conventional cable;
a first comparison module for comparing the superconducting cable cost value with the conventional cable cost value; if the cost value of the superconducting cable is smaller than the cost value of the conventional cable, selecting the superconducting cable; otherwise, selecting a conventional cable;
the cable critical length value calculation module is used for obtaining a cable critical length value according to the life cycle cost model of the superconducting cable and the life cycle cost model of the conventional cable;
the second comparison module is used for acquiring an actual length value of the electric power to be laid and comparing the actual length value of the electric power to be laid with the critical length value of the cable; if the actual length value of the power to be laid is larger than or equal to the critical length value of the cable, selecting a superconducting cable; otherwise, a conventional cable is selected.
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