CN113344429A - Comprehensive evaluation method for power grid system containing high-temperature superconducting cable - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a comprehensive evaluation method of a power grid system containing a high-temperature superconducting cable, which comprises the following steps: (1) calculating technical and economic indexes of a high-temperature superconducting cable access system, wherein the technical indexes comprise transferred electric quantity, reliability, short-circuit current and line loss rate; the economic indicator is the life cycle cost; (2) selecting a feasible application scene based on the reliability boundary condition and the life cycle cost, and designing different schemes; (3) grading technical and economic indexes of different schemes by using a rank and ratio method; (4) obtaining index calculation values corresponding to the grading boundary values, taking the index calculation values as parameters of the fuzzy membership function, and scoring each index; (5) the optimal solution is selected according to the scores, and the higher the score is, the better the solution is. By adopting the evaluation index and the evaluation method provided by the invention, the application rationality of the superconducting cable can be comprehensively evaluated, and the selection of the application scene of the superconducting cable is guided.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of high-temperature superconducting cables, and particularly relates to a comprehensive evaluation method of a power grid system containing a high-temperature superconducting cable.
Background
The superconducting transmission technology is one of advanced power grid technologies, and by utilizing the resistance-free characteristic of a superconducting material in a superconducting state, the superconducting material can replace conventional metal materials such as copper, aluminum and the like to serve as a current-carrying conductor, so that the high-density and large-capacity transmission requirements of a modern power grid are met. Compared with the conventional transmission cable, the high-temperature superconducting cable has the advantages of large capacity, small area, low loss, environmental friendliness, no electromagnetic radiation, optimized electric energy structure and the like, and can generate huge technical and economic benefits. Therefore, the superconducting cable can become one of the key technologies for solving the problem of high-density power transmission, and the research on the superconducting power transmission technology has great significance.
Although many advances have been made in the superconducting cable transmission technology at home and abroad, and a few superconducting cables have the level of being connected to an actual power grid, the superconducting cables still cannot be widely applied to power systems. Compared with the conventional power cable, the application condition of the superconducting cable is more severe.
After the high-temperature superconducting cable is connected into the system, the tide distribution and the reliability of a power grid can be changed, the short-circuit current when the system is short-circuited can be different from that of a common cable, and the loss of the high-temperature superconducting cable is smaller than that of a traditional cable, so that the technical influence of the superconducting cable connection system needs to be evaluated. Meanwhile, the economic influence of the high-temperature superconducting cable access system also needs to be considered. The technical and economic reference standards are provided for future superconducting cable access systems, and the superconducting cable becomes an important way for solving the problem of large-capacity power supply.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the defects in the prior art, the invention aims to provide a comprehensive evaluation method of a power grid system containing a high-temperature superconducting cable, which adopts economic and technical indexes comprising transferred electric quantity, reliability, short-circuit current, line loss rate and life cycle cost and combines a fuzzy membership function and a rank-sum ratio method to calculate comprehensive scores.
The invention adopts the following technical scheme.
A comprehensive evaluation method of a power grid system containing a high-temperature superconducting cable comprises the following steps:
(1) calculating technical and economic indexes of a high-temperature superconducting cable access system, wherein the technical indexes comprise transferred electric quantity, reliability, short-circuit current and line loss rate; the economic indicator is the life cycle cost;
(2) selecting a feasible application scene based on the reliability boundary condition and the life cycle cost, and designing different schemes;
(3) grading technical and economic indexes of different schemes by using a rank and ratio method;
(4) obtaining a corresponding index calculation value of the grading boundary value, taking the corresponding index calculation value as a parameter of a fuzzy membership function, and grading technical and economic index indexes;
(5) the optimal solution is selected according to the scores, and the higher the score is, the better the solution is.
Further, when only one scheme to be evaluated exists, the score of the scheme is calculated, a threshold value is given by combining the actual situation, whether the score of the scheme reaches the threshold value is judged, and the feasibility of the scheme is determined.
Further, the step (3) specifically includes the steps of:
(3.1) sequencing technical and economic indexes of different schemes according to calculated values to obtain corresponding orders;
(3.2) calculating the rank and the ratio RSR according to the rank and the order of the RSR, and calculating the accumulated frequency according to the order of the RSR;
(3.3) obtaining a corresponding probability unit according to the accumulated frequency;
and (3.4) grading the index calculation values according to the probability units.
Further, in the step (3.2), the rank sum ratio RSR calculation expression is:
wherein n is the number of the schemes to be evaluated, m is the number of the evaluation indexes, and R is the rank of each group of indexes obtained according to the ranking of the evaluation schemes;
calculating the corresponding accumulated frequency f:
wherein J represents the scheme to be evaluated with the index rank J, N is the total number of the schemes, and the cumulative frequency of the schemes with the index rank N is obtained by estimation.
Further, in the step (3.3), the accumulated frequency is converted into a percentage value, and the corresponding probability unit is obtained by referring to a percentage and probability unit comparison table.
Further, in the step (3.4), a fuzzy membership function of the evaluation index is selected according to the type of the evaluation index to obtain the number h of function parameters, wherein the grading number is h + 1; the evaluation index includes a cost index and a benefit index.
Further, in the step (2), the application scenes with reliability indexes lower than the constraint condition after the superconducting cable is connected are removed by taking the reliability boundary condition as the constraint; comparing the total life cycle cost of the superconducting cable and the conventional planning scheme in the same application scene, and eliminating the superconducting cable application scene with the total life cycle cost higher than that of the conventional planning scheme; and the application scenes which are reserved after screening are feasible application scenes.
Further, in the step (4), the fuzzy membership function of the cost index is as follows:
wherein x is an index value, and a and b are undetermined parameters;
the fuzzy membership function of the benefit type index is as follows:
wherein, x is an index value, and c and d are undetermined parameters.
Further, in the step (1), the reliability index includes an average system outage frequency, an average system outage duration, and a system power supply reliability.
Further, in the step (1), the life cycle cost is the cost investment of the whole process from construction to use of the superconducting cable.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the invention provides four technical evaluation indexes of transferred electric quantity, reliability, short-circuit current and line loss rate, an economic evaluation index and the whole life cycle cost; and finally, on the basis of classical evaluation methods such as a rank and ratio method, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, a TOPSIS method and the like, a comprehensive evaluation method combining a fuzzy membership function and the rank and ratio method is provided.
By adopting the evaluation index and the evaluation method provided by the invention, the application rationality of the superconducting cable can be comprehensively evaluated, and the selection of the application scene of the superconducting cable is guided.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a comprehensive evaluation method of a superconducting cable access system;
FIG. 2 is a comprehensive evaluation index system of the superconducting cable access system;
FIG. 3 is a flow chart of the rank-sum ratio method application;
FIG. 4 is a membership function for a cost-type index;
FIG. 5 is a membership function of benefit type indicators.
Detailed Description
The present application is further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The following examples are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention more clearly, and the protection scope of the present application is not limited thereby.
As shown in fig. 1, the comprehensive evaluation method of a power grid system including a high-temperature superconducting cable based on the combination of a fuzzy membership function and a rank-sum ratio method according to the present invention includes the steps of:
(1) calculating technical and economic indexes of the high-temperature superconducting cable access system;
as shown in fig. 2, the technical indexes of the access system of the high-temperature superconducting cable include transferred electricity quantity, reliability, short-circuit current and line loss rate; the economic indicator is the life cycle cost.
The electric quantity transfer is the transmission electric quantity in the superconducting cable 48h under the condition that the overhaul state lasts for 48h and the load characteristic is not considered after the superconducting cable is connected into the system, the electric quantity transfer reflects the transmission capacity of the superconducting cable connection system, and the electric quantity transfer of the superconducting cable connection system is obtained based on load flow calculation.
The reliability indexes of the superconducting cable after being connected into the system comprise the average power failure frequency of the system, the average power failure duration time of the system and the power supply reliability of the system.
Average frequency of system power failure ISAIFIn order to average the number of sustained power failures experienced by each user in a system including a superconducting cable for a prescribed time, the specific calculation formula is as follows:
wherein g is a load node; omegaFThe positions of all types of load nodes in the system are collected;the number of users as a node g; lambda [ alpha ]gThe annual outage frequency (times/year) for load point g.
Average power failure duration of system ISAIDIn order to average the total power failure time experienced by each user in a system containing a superconducting cable within a specified time, the specific calculation formula is as follows:
wherein u isgThe average outage duration (h/year) at load point g.
Reliability of system power supply IASAThe specific calculation formula is that the ratio of the total number of the uninterrupted power hours experienced by the user in the specified time to the total number of the power supply hours required by the user is as follows:
wherein 8760 is a year of 365 days for a total of 8760 hours.
The short-circuit current comprises three-phase short-circuit current, two-phase short-circuit current and single-phase short-circuit current.
The three-phase short-circuit current calculation formula is as follows:
the per unit value is:
the named values are:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,is the per unit value of the three-phase short-circuit current at the short-circuit point,three-phase short-circuit current nominal value, X, being a short-circuit point1∑*Is the summed total positive sequence equivalent reactance, IjIs a current reference value.
The two-phase short-circuit current calculation formula is as follows:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,is a two-phase short-circuit full current, X1∑Is the summed total positive sequence equivalent reactance, X2∑Is the reduced total negative sequence equivalent reactance.
Calculating each sequence component:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,representing the positive and negative sequence components of the two-phase short circuit current.
The two-phase ground fault point short circuit current can be expressed as:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,representing the full current for a two-phase ground fault.
wherein the content of the first and second substances,represents the positive sequence component of the fault current,represents the negative sequence component of the fault current,representing the zero sequence component of the fault current.
Wherein, X1∑Is the summed total positive sequence equivalent reactance, X2∑Is the summed total negative sequence equivalent reactance, X0∑Is the reduced total zero sequence equivalent reactance.
The single-phase short-circuit current calculation formula is as follows:
the single-phase earth fault point short-circuit current can be expressed as:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,representing a single-phase ground fault full current.
The formula for the calculated components is:
wherein the content of the first and second substances,representing the positive and negative sequence components of the single-phase short-circuit current.
Wherein x is1Is a positive sequence reactance, x0Is a zero sequence reactance.
The electric energy is generated by the generator after primary energy conversion, and finally used by customers after sequentially passing through power transmission equipment, power transformation equipment and power distribution equipment.
And calculating the line loss rate of the adding system of the superconducting cable based on the power supply quantity and the power selling quantity. The specific calculation formula of the line loss rate is as follows:
line loss rate ═ line loss electricity quantity ÷ power supply quantity × 100%
(power supply-electricity selling quantity) ÷ power supply quantity x 100%
The line loss rate is used as a comprehensive management index of a power grid enterprise, is related to marketing, production, a power grid structure, an operation mode, frequency modulation, metering errors and the like, and can be roughly divided into a power grid structure construction aspect, a power grid production technology aspect, a power grid operation and maintenance management aspect and external factors.
The life cycle cost of a superconducting cable is the cost input of the superconducting cable from the whole process of construction to use. The total life cycle cost of the superconducting cable is calculated based on the parameters of the manufacturing cost of the superconducting cable, the manufacturing cost of the refrigerating machine, the electricity price, the conveying capacity and the like.
The idea of the full life cycle is applied to a power grid planning project containing the superconducting cable, namely the maximization of the whole income of the full life cycle of the enterprise assets is realized by taking the minimum total cost of the full life cycle of the planning project as a target on the premise of ensuring the safe undetermined power supply.
The core content of the power grid construction project life cycle management is the analysis and calculation of the life cycle cost of a power grid planning scheme, and a quantized value is used as a decision basis. In the life cycle of planning construction and operation of the power grid, the operation and maintenance cost generated each year often exceeds the initial investment cost of the power grid, the scheme with lower early investment cost is not necessarily the most optimal cost of the whole life cycle, and the planning scheme with higher early investment cost may have lower later operation cost, so that the total cost of the planning scheme in the whole life cycle is lower; however, too high construction cost may cause resource waste, and the asset utilization rate is too low, which finally causes the cost of the planning scheme in the whole life cycle to increase, and is not beneficial to enterprise development.
(2) Selecting a feasible application scenario based on reliability boundary conditions and full life cycle cost;
with the reliability index requirement in the power grid planning technical principle as constraint, eliminating scenes with the reliability index lower than the constraint condition after the superconducting cable is connected; and comparing the life cycle cost of the superconducting cable and the life cycle cost of the conventional power grid planning scheme in the same scene, eliminating the application of the superconducting cable with the life cycle cost higher than that of the conventional planning scheme, and obtaining a scene which is remained after screening as a feasible application scene.
(3) Grading the technical and economic indexes of different schemes by using a rank and ratio method, as shown in FIG. 3;
the step (3) specifically comprises the following steps:
(3.1) sequencing technical and economic indexes of different schemes according to calculated values to obtain corresponding orders;
in the evaluation of the planning scheme of the power distribution network containing the high-temperature superconducting cable, the scheme ordering condition of each index can be known according to the calculated value of the index, and the corresponding order of the index can be obtained.
(3.2) calculating the rank and the ratio RSR according to the rank and the order of the RSR, and calculating the accumulated frequency according to the order of the RSR;
the rank sum ratio refers to the average value of the rank of the row (or column) in the table, is a non-parametric measurement and is characterized by a continuous variable in a range of 0-1. The basic idea is that in an n-row (n evaluation objects) and m-column (m evaluation indexes) matrix, dimensionless statistic RSR is obtained through rank conversion, and the RSR is used for ranking the merits of the evaluation objects or ranking the merits of the evaluation objects.
Calculating the rank and ratio RSR through the calculated value of each index; according to the mathematical expression of the rank and ratio method and the characteristics of comprehensive evaluation of a power grid planning scheme, the RSR calculation expression of the rank and ratio is as follows:
wherein n is the number of the schemes to be evaluated, m is the number of the evaluation indexes, and R is the rank of each group of indexes obtained according to the ranking of the evaluation schemes.
Calculating the corresponding accumulated frequency f:
wherein J represents the scheme to be evaluated with the index rank J, N is the total number of the schemes, and the cumulative frequency of the schemes with the index rank N is obtained by estimation.
(3.3) calculating a corresponding probability unit according to the accumulated frequency;
and converting the calculated accumulated frequency into a percentage value, and looking up a percentage and probability unit comparison table in statistics to obtain the corresponding probability unit.
(3.4) grading the index calculation values according to probability units;
firstly, classifying evaluation indexes, as shown in table 1, which are technical and economic index attributes including cost indexes and benefit indexes; and then determining a fuzzy membership function of the evaluation index according to the type to further obtain the number h of the parameters, dividing the grades according to the calculated value of the evaluation index by using a rank and ratio method, wherein the grading number depends on the number of the parameters in the membership function, the grading number is h +1, and boundary values of different grades of quantitative indexes can be obtained by using the rank and ratio method to serve as the parameters of the fuzzy membership function to further obtain an index evaluation result.
TABLE 1
(4) Obtaining index calculation values corresponding to the grading boundary values, taking the index calculation values as parameters of the fuzzy membership function, and grading each economic and technical index;
and a fuzzy membership function is introduced and combined with a rank and ratio method, and the fuzzy membership function and the rank and ratio method are combined to quantify the evaluation indexes, so that the reasonable discrimination of the evaluation results is ensured.
Because the evaluation indexes of the invention only have two types of benefit and cost, the fuzzy membership function definitions of the two types of indexes are listed.
Membership function of cost index:
wherein, x is the index value, a, b is the undetermined parameter, and the function graph is shown in fig. 4.
Membership function of benefit-type index:
wherein x is an index value, c and d are undetermined parameters, and a function graph thereof is shown in fig. 5.
(5) And selecting an optimal scheme or determining the feasibility of the scheme according to the score, wherein the higher the score is, the better the scheme is.
And for the case that only one scheme to be evaluated exists, calculating the score of the wiring scheme according to the flow, giving a proper threshold value by combining the actual situation, and judging whether the score of the scheme reaches the threshold value to determine the feasibility of the wiring scheme.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the invention provides four technical evaluation indexes of transferred electric quantity, reliability, short-circuit current and line loss rate, an economic evaluation index and the whole life cycle cost; and finally, on the basis of classical evaluation methods such as a rank and ratio method, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, a TOPSIS method and the like, a comprehensive evaluation method combining a fuzzy membership function and the rank and ratio method is provided.
By adopting the evaluation index and the evaluation method provided by the invention, the application rationality of the superconducting cable can be comprehensively evaluated, and the selection of the application scene of the superconducting cable is guided.
The present applicant has described and illustrated embodiments of the present invention in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, but it should be understood by those skilled in the art that the above embodiments are merely preferred embodiments of the present invention, and the detailed description is only for the purpose of helping the reader to better understand the spirit of the present invention, and not for limiting the scope of the present invention, and on the contrary, any improvement or modification made based on the spirit of the present invention should fall within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A comprehensive evaluation method of a power grid system containing a high-temperature superconducting cable is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) calculating technical and economic indexes of a high-temperature superconducting cable access system, wherein the technical indexes comprise transferred electric quantity, reliability, short-circuit current and line loss rate; the economic indicator is the life cycle cost;
(2) selecting a feasible application scene based on the reliability boundary condition and the life cycle cost, and designing different schemes;
(3) grading technical and economic indexes of different schemes by using a rank and ratio method;
(4) obtaining a corresponding index calculation value of the grading boundary value, taking the corresponding index calculation value as a parameter of a fuzzy membership function, and grading technical and economic indexes;
(5) the optimal solution is selected according to the scores, and the higher the score is, the better the solution is.
2. The comprehensive evaluation method of a power grid system including a high-temperature superconducting cable according to claim 1,
and when only one scheme to be evaluated exists, calculating the score of the scheme, giving a threshold value by combining the actual situation, judging whether the score of the scheme reaches the threshold value, and determining the feasibility of the scheme.
3. The comprehensive evaluation method for the power grid system including the hts cable according to claim 1, wherein the step (3) specifically includes the steps of:
(3.1) sequencing technical and economic indexes of different schemes according to calculated values to obtain corresponding orders;
(3.2) calculating the rank and the ratio RSR according to the rank and the order of the RSR, and calculating the accumulated frequency according to the order of the RSR;
(3.3) obtaining a corresponding probability unit according to the accumulated frequency;
and (3.4) grading the index calculation values according to the probability units.
4. The comprehensive evaluation method for a power grid system including a hts cable according to claim 3, wherein in step (3.2),
the rank sum ratio RSR calculation expression is as follows:
wherein n is the number of the schemes to be evaluated, m is the number of the evaluation indexes, and R is the rank of each group of indexes obtained according to the ranking of the evaluation schemes;
calculating the corresponding accumulated frequency f:
wherein J represents the scheme to be evaluated with the index rank J, N is the total number of the schemes, and the cumulative frequency of the schemes with the index rank N is obtained by estimation.
5. The comprehensive evaluation method for a power grid system including a hts cable according to claim 3, wherein in step (3.3),
and converting the accumulated frequency into a percentage value, and consulting a percentage and probability unit comparison table to obtain a corresponding probability unit.
6. The comprehensive evaluation method for a power grid system including a hts cable according to claim 3, wherein in step (3.4),
selecting a fuzzy membership function of the evaluation index according to the type of the evaluation index to obtain the number h of function parameters, wherein the grading number is h + 1;
the evaluation index includes a cost index and a benefit index.
7. The comprehensive evaluation method for a power grid system including a hts cable according to claim 1, wherein in step (2),
removing the application scenes with the reliability indexes lower than the constraint conditions after the superconducting cables are connected by taking the reliability boundary conditions as constraints;
comparing the total life cycle cost of the superconducting cable and the conventional planning scheme in the same application scene, and eliminating the superconducting cable application scene with the total life cycle cost higher than that of the conventional planning scheme; and the application scenes which are reserved after screening are feasible application scenes.
8. The comprehensive evaluation method of a power grid system including a high temperature superconducting cable according to claim 6, wherein in the step (4),
the fuzzy membership function of the cost-type index is:
wherein x is an index value, and a and b are undetermined parameters;
the fuzzy membership function of the benefit type index is as follows:
wherein, x is an index value, and c and d are undetermined parameters.
9. The comprehensive evaluation method for a power grid system including a high temperature superconducting cable according to claim 1, wherein in the step (1),
the reliability indexes comprise the average power failure frequency of the system, the average power failure duration time of the system and the power supply reliability of the system.
10. The comprehensive evaluation method for a power grid system including a high temperature superconducting cable according to claim 1, wherein in the step (1),
the life cycle cost is the cost input of the superconducting cable from construction to the whole process of use.
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