CN113159663A - Computer readable storage medium and medicine inventory monitoring method - Google Patents
Computer readable storage medium and medicine inventory monitoring method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a computer-readable storage medium and a medicine inventory monitoring method. The method comprises the following steps: receiving first circulation data of a first batch of target medicines in a target area, wherein the first circulation data comprises the number of sales terminals of the target medicines with the first batch number in the target area, the total number of the sales terminals in the target area and circulation time of the first batch of target medicines, and the circulation time represents the time elapsed since the first batch of target medicines enter the target area; fitting a life cycle curve of the target drug based on the first circulation data; receiving second circulation data of a second batch of target medicines in the target area, wherein the second circulation data comprises the number of the sales terminals of the target medicines with the second batch of numbers in the target area and the circulation duration of the target medicines with the second batch of numbers; and calculating the stock quantity of the target medicine of the second batch number in the target area by referring to the life cycle curve based on the second circulation data.
Description
The application is a divisional application of Chinese patent application with the application date of 2015, 1 and 29, the application number of 201510046547.X and the name of the invention of 'a method for calculating the stock of a medicine society'.
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of inventory management, in particular to a social drug inventory calculation method.
Background
Typically, pharmaceutical manufacturers may sell their produced pharmaceuticals to end users through different sales channels. Specifically, after a pharmaceutical manufacturer produces a pharmaceutical, the pharmaceutical may be sold to a sales terminal directly facing an end user, including a hospital or a pharmacy; the medicines can also be sold to wholesalers and circulated to the sales terminals through the wholesalers. Since China is wide in territory and the sales terminals are too scattered, most drug manufacturers are difficult to connect all the sales terminals in person, and drug sales are mainly performed by wholesalers. For example, a manufacturer may sell a drug to a primary wholesaler, which may sell the drug to its next primary wholesaler, i.e., a secondary wholesaler, which may also sell the drug to its next secondary wholesaler, i.e., a tertiary wholesaler, and so on. Of course, the wholesaler at each level may be directly facing the point-of-sale terminal.
From the above, the main participant in the drug sales network is the wholesaler. This has traditionally led drug manufacturers to acquire social inventory of a drug, i.e., the total inventory at all wholesalers and sales terminals, and typically have acquired and aggregated inventory data from sales terminals and wholesalers at all levels to obtain social inventory. However, due to the large number of wholesalers and the low cooperative willingness of some wholesalers, the social inventory calculation method relying on strict inventory audit of all levels of wholesalers not only requires huge investment, but also is often difficult to advance.
In this regard, some drug manufacturers think of inferring social inventory from sales experience. Specifically, according to the theory that the price is mainly determined by the supply and demand relationship in economics, when the social inventory is large, the price of the medicine is lower, and vice versa. Therefore, the corresponding social inventory can be estimated according to the price fluctuation of a certain medicine. However, since the price of a drug is not the only factor that determines social inventory, there is a problem that the accuracy is not sufficient to presume the social inventory only from sales experiences.
In summary, there is a need to find a simple, easy and relatively accurate social inventory calculation technique for drugs, so as to better guide drug manufacturers to make drug production plans.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the present invention provides a simple and relatively accurate method for monitoring drug inventory and a computer readable storage medium.
In order to solve the above-described technical problem, according to an aspect of the present invention, there is provided a computer-readable storage medium having a program stored thereon, the program causing a computer to execute the steps of: receiving first circulation data of a first batch number of target medicines in a target area, wherein the first circulation data comprises the number of sales terminals of the target medicines with the first batch number in the target area, the total number of the sales terminals in the target area, and circulation duration of the first batch number of the target medicines, and the circulation duration represents the time elapsed since the target medicines with the first batch number enter the target area; fitting a life cycle curve of the target drug based on the first flow-through data; receiving second circulation data of a second batch of target medicines in the target area, wherein the second circulation data comprises the number of sales terminals of the target medicines with the second batch of numbers in the target area and circulation duration of the second batch of numbers of the target medicines; and calculating the stock quantity of the target medicine of the second batch number in the target area by referring to the life cycle curve based on the second circulation data.
The computer-readable storage medium of the present invention, fitting a life cycle curve of the target drug based on the first circulation data comprises: counting the Total input amount Total of the target medicines of the first batch number in the target area; counting the total number N of the sales terminals aiming at the target medicine in the target areastore(ii) a Acquiring data of exposure rate of the target medicine of the first batch number in the target area, wherein the exposure rate indicates that the target area has the exposure rateA ratio of the number of sales terminals of the target drug of the first lot number to the total number of sales terminals within the target area; and the Total input amount Total and the Total number N of the sales terminals based on the acquired data of the exposure ratestoreAnd fitting the life cycle curve.
The computer readable storage medium of the present invention, based on the obtained data of the exposure rate and the Total input amount Total and the Total number N of the sales terminalsstoreFitting the life cycle curve comprises: calculating an average sales rate of the target drug of the first lot number in the target area
And fitting the life cycle curve based on the following formula,
in the computer-readable storage medium of the present invention, the life cycle curve is bell-shaped.
The computer-readable storage medium of the present invention, wherein the life cycle curve represents a relationship between an exposure rate and a circulation time period of the target medicine of the first lot number in the target area, the exposure rate represents a ratio of the number of sales terminals of the target medicine of the first lot number in the target area to the total number of sales terminals in the target area, and the calculating the stock amount of the target medicine of the second lot number in the target area comprises: calculating the exposure rate of the target drug of the second lot number; determining at least one point on the life cycle curve corresponding to the calculated exposure rate of the target drug for the second lot number; selecting a point corresponding to the circulation time length of the acquired target medicine of the second batch number from the at least one point as a target point; calculating a portion of the life cycle curve from the origin of the coordinate system to the target point, a straight line extending from the target point to a horizontal axis of the coordinate system in parallel to a longitudinal axis of the coordinate system, and a first area of a region surrounded by the horizontal axis; the following area ratios were calculated: the area ratio is a ratio of the first area to an area of a region enclosed by the life cycle curve and the horizontal axis; and calculating the stock quantity of the target medicine of the second lot number in the target area by using the area ratio and the total input quantity of the target medicine of the second lot number in the target area.
According to another aspect of the present invention, there is also provided a medicine inventory amount monitoring method for calculating an inventory amount of target medicines in a target area, including: receiving first circulation data of a first batch number of the target medicine in a target area, wherein the first circulation data comprises the number of sales terminals of the target medicine with the first batch number in the target area, the total number of sales terminals in the target area, and circulation duration of the first batch number of the target medicine, and the circulation duration represents the time elapsed since the target medicine with the first batch number enters the target area; fitting a life cycle curve of the target drug based on the first flow-through data; receiving second circulation data of a second batch of target medicines in the target area, wherein the second circulation data comprises the number of sales terminals of the target medicines with the second batch of numbers in the target area and circulation duration of the second batch of numbers of the target medicines; and calculating the stock quantity of the target medicine of the second batch number in the target area by referring to the life cycle curve based on the second circulation data.
The method for monitoring the inventory of the drugs, which is provided by the invention, is characterized in that the step of fitting the life cycle curve of the target drug based on the first circulation data comprises the following steps: counting the Total input amount Total of the target medicines of the first batch number in the target area; counting the total number N of the sales terminals aiming at the target medicine in the target areastore(ii) a Acquiring the exposure rate of the target medicine of the first batch number in the target area, wherein the exposure rate comprises a plurality of time pointsThe exposure rate represents a ratio of the number of sales terminals of the target medicine having the first lot number in the target area to the total number of sales terminals in the target area; and the Total input amount Total and the Total number N of the sales terminals based on the acquired data of the exposure ratestoreAnd fitting the life cycle curve.
The medicine inventory monitoring method is based on the acquired data of the exposure rate, the Total input amount Total and the Total number N of the sales terminalsstoreFitting the life cycle curve comprises: calculating an average sales rate of the target drug of the first lot number in the target area
And fitting the life cycle curve based on the following formula,
according to the method for monitoring the drug inventory, the life cycle curve is bell-shaped.
In the method for monitoring the inventory amount of the target medicine according to the present invention, the life cycle curve represents a relationship between an exposure rate and a circulation time of the target medicine of the first lot number in the target area, the exposure rate represents a ratio of the number of sales terminals of the target medicine of the first lot number in the target area to the total number of sales terminals in the target area, and the calculating the inventory amount of the target medicine of the second lot number in the target area includes: calculating the exposure rate of the target drug of the second lot number; determining at least one point on the life cycle curve corresponding to the calculated exposure rate of the target drug for the second lot number; selecting a point corresponding to the circulation time length of the acquired target medicine of the second batch number from the at least one point as a target point; calculating a portion of the life cycle curve from the origin of the coordinate system to the target point, a straight line extending from the target point to a horizontal axis of the coordinate system in parallel to a longitudinal axis of the coordinate system, and a first area of a region surrounded by the horizontal axis; the following area ratios were calculated: the area ratio is a ratio of the first area to an area of a region enclosed by the life cycle curve and the horizontal axis; and calculating the stock quantity of the target medicine of the second lot number in the target area by using the area ratio and the total input quantity of the target medicine of the second lot number in the target area.
The social inventory calculation method for the medicines and the computer-readable storage medium estimate the social inventory of the medicines in the specific area based on the exposure rate and the sales duration of the medicines in the specific area, so that the inventory data of a sales terminal and various wholesalers are not needed, and the accuracy of estimating the social inventory is higher.
Other features and aspects of the present invention will become apparent from the following detailed description of exemplary embodiments, which proceeds with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate exemplary embodiments, features, and aspects of the invention and, together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the invention.
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram illustrating an example of a sales lifecycle curve established based on exposure and sales duration for a particular lot number of a target drug, according to an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 2 illustrates a flow chart of a method for social inventory calculation of drugs, according to an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram illustrating a sales life cycle curve for a pharmaceutical product according to a first specific embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a diagram illustrating an example application of the sales lifecycle curve shown in FIG. 3;
FIG. 5 is a schematic diagram illustrating a sales life cycle curve for a pharmaceutical product according to a second specific embodiment of the present invention; and
FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram illustrating an example application of the sales lifecycle curve shown in FIG. 5.
Detailed Description
Various exemplary embodiments, features and aspects of the present invention will be described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings. In the drawings, like reference numbers can indicate functionally identical or similar elements. While the various aspects of the embodiments are presented in drawings, the drawings are not necessarily drawn to scale unless specifically indicated.
The word "exemplary" is used exclusively herein to mean "serving as an example, embodiment, or illustration. Any embodiment described herein as "exemplary" is not necessarily to be construed as preferred or advantageous over other embodiments.
Furthermore, in the following detailed description, numerous specific details are set forth in order to provide a better understanding of the present invention. It will be understood by those skilled in the art that the present invention may be practiced without some of these specific details. In some instances, methods, procedures, components, and circuits that are well known to those skilled in the art have not been described in detail so as not to obscure the present invention.
As described in the background section, social inventory calculation depending on strict inventory audit of wholesalers and sales terminals at various levels is difficult to realize, and social inventory estimation depending on sales experience is not accurate. Therefore, the invention aims to design a simple, feasible and relatively accurate drug social inventory calculation scheme, and originally proposes: the sales lifecycle of a particular drug from market-in to purchase by an end-user can be mathematically modeled by lot number, and the social inventory of the in-sale lot number of the particular drug is estimated based on the established model.
Wherein, generally, the sales lifecycle of a drug can be mathematically modeled based on sales volume. In this case, first, as described in the background, accurate sales volume is difficult to obtain, which makes it almost impossible to implement sales lifecycle modeling based on sales volume. Secondly, sales volume generally continues to increase with sales time, which makes the slope of the sales lifecycle curve drawn based on the relationship between sales time and sales volume have physical implications and makes the sales lifecycle curve established based on sales volume have little reference between different batches of the same drug.
In view of the above, the inventors of the present invention conducted intensive research on sales data of a medicine by lot number in a partitioned manner, and found that a sales life cycle curve of the medicine in a specific area can be mathematically modeled based on an exposure rate of the specific lot number of the medicine in the specific area. The exposure rate is a ratio of the number of sales terminals that are selling the medicine of the specific lot number in the specific area to the total number of sales terminals in the specific area. Thus, since the exposure rate is easier to obtain than the sales volume, the modeling difficulty is significantly reduced. In addition, because the exposure rate has the characteristic of changing along with the sales time in an increasing and decreasing mode, the sales life cycle curve drawn based on the relation between the sales time and the exposure rate can clearly show the sales characteristics of the medicine in a certain area, and the sales life cycle curve established based on the exposure rate has referential performance among different batches of the same medicine.
Based on the above, according to an embodiment of the present invention, a method for calculating social inventory of drugs is provided, and the following is introduced in detail: first, the manufacturer can determine a sales life cycle curve of a certain batch number of target drugs in a target area according to historical inventory data obtained by the manufacturer from part of wholesalers, wherein the sales life cycle curve represents the relationship between the exposure rate and the sales time of the certain batch number of target drugs in the target area. The exposure rate represents the ratio of the number of the sales terminals of the target medicine with a certain batch number in the target area relative to the total number of the sales terminals in the target area, and the sales duration represents the time elapsed since the target medicine with the certain batch number enters the target area.
FIG. 1 shows a schematic diagram of an example of a sales lifecycle curve created based on exposure rates, according to an embodiment of the invention. Specifically, the bell-shaped curve represents the exposure rate of the target medicine of lot I in relation to the time of sale. The sales lifecycle referred to herein is the time period from the first exposure of lot I target drug in a province to the end of the time when the target drug is completely sold out (completely sold over the sales counter). The horizontal axis of the coordinates of the bell-shaped curve is Lt, which represents the time of sale of the target medicine with lot number I, for example, in months; the ordinate axis is E, representing the exposure of the target drug product with lot number I, in percent. Here, the exposure E represents a ratio of the number of sales terminals that are selling the target medicine having the lot number I (hereinafter, simply referred to as the number of sales terminals) to the total number of sales terminals in the province. In the case of a hospital as a terminal, the exposure E is the ratio of the number of hospitals having the target drug with lot I in stock to the total number of hospitals in the province. For example, 100 hospitals in the province, 80 of which have the target drug with lot I in stock, means that the exposure E is 80%. And the area within the entire bell-shaped curve represents the total input of the target drug with lot number I into the province.
And starting to fit a sales life cycle curve according to the exposure rate and the sales time of the target medicine of the batch number I obtained by sampling. Specifically, the horizontal axis of the coordinate represents the sales time of the target medicine of the lot number I in the province, the vertical axis of the coordinate represents the coordinate domain defined by the exposure rate of the target medicine of the lot number I in the province, and the corresponding point in the coordinate domain is drawn according to the exposure rate and the sales time obtained by the sampling. To obtain the sales lifecycle curve, at least the coordinate points at 50% (ascending stage), 100% (platform stage), and 50% (descending stage) of the exposure rate are fixed in the coordinate domain, and then the points are connected to obtain the sales lifecycle curve, as shown in fig. 1, which is generally in a bell shape. The area of the region enclosed by the sales life cycle curve and the horizontal axis represents the total input amount of the target medicine of lot number I in the province.
After obtaining the sales lifecycle curve, the inventors found that the shape of the sales lifecycle curve is very similar to the "enzyme reaction kinetics" curve in biology, also based on the change in the first variable, the second variable increasing rapidly (with an upward trend on the image), then not changing significantly over time, and then decreasing rapidly (with a downward trend on the image). Therefore, the inventors have suggested that similar curve variations refer to the equation for "enzyme reaction kinetics" to represent the sales life cycle curve as shown in equation 1 below.
The parameter Total in equation 1 represents the Total input of the target drug for lot I in the province, NstoreIndicating the total number of sales terminals for the target medicine within the province, lt indicating the time period of sales of the target medicine of lot number I,
is the average sales rate of the target drug of lot I within the province. Here, since the sales speed of the medicine may be affected by various factors, for example, generally speaking, the sales speed of the Ganmaoling is faster in winter than in summer, and thus the average sales speed is high
As one of the parameters.
After determining formula 1, the Total input amount Total and the Total number N of the sales terminals of the target medicine according to the lot number IstoreTime of sale of target medicine lt, average sale speed
Etc. to fit the sales life cycle curve for lot I of the target drug in that province. Average sales speed in general
Is easier to obtain than exposure. This makes fitting the sales lifecycle curve using equation 1 easier to implement than the aforementioned method of plotting the sales lifecycle curve based on exposure rates at multiple points in time and sales time data.
Further, after determining the sales life cycle curve of the target drug of lot I in the province by any of the methods described above, in order to obtain the social inventory of the target drug of lot II in the province, the total input amount, exposure rate, and sales time of the target drug of lot II in the province may be obtained first, and then the social inventory of the target drug of lot II in the province may be calculated with reference to the sales life cycle curve of lot I based on the obtained data on the total input amount, exposure rate, and sales time.
Specifically, at least one point corresponding to the acquired exposure rate of the target medicine of lot number II is determined on the sales lifecycle curve of the target medicine of lot number I. A point corresponding to the acquired sales time length of the target medicine of lot number II is selected from the at least one point as a target point (for example, an intersection point of an arrow shown in fig. 1 and the sales life cycle curve is a target point), and an area of a portion from the origin of coordinates to the target point, a straight line extending from the target point to the horizontal axis in a manner parallel to the vertical axis, and an area surrounded by the horizontal axis is calculated as a sales area. The ratio of the sales area to the area of the region enclosed by the horizontal axis and the sales life cycle curve of the target medicine of lot number I is calculated as the sales ratio. The sales ratio and the total input amount of the target drug of lot II in the province are multiplied to obtain the sales amount, and the social inventory of the target drug of lot II in the province is obtained by subtracting the sales amount from the total input amount.
For example, referring to fig. 1, the sum of parts a and B is Total input amount Total of the target drug with lot number II in the province, part a is sales amount of the target drug with lot number II, and part B is social stock of the target drug with lot number II.
It should be noted that, although a certain manufacturer produces a medicine having a plurality of lot numbers, the name of the medicine and the common name corresponding to a certain lot number are determined. When calculating the social inventory of different medicines, calculation needs to be performed according to the sales life cycle curves corresponding to the different medicines. For example, when the drug is an antipyretic, historical sales data for the antipyretic of lot I is used to derive a corresponding sales lifecycle curve for estimating the social inventory of the antipyretic of lot II. When the drug is an anti-inflammatory drug, historical sales data for the anti-inflammatory drug of lot I is used to obtain a corresponding sales lifecycle curve for estimating the social inventory of the anti-inflammatory drug of lot II. Also, in order to make the calculation more accurate, for example, to calculate the social inventory of target medicines having lot number II in summer (6 to 8 months) of a year, the historical sales data of target medicines having lot number I in summer of the previous year may be retrieved to re-fit the bell-shaped curve. For manufacturers, since they produce a fixed number of drugs, there is a rich historical sales data for a certain lot of target drugs to fit a corresponding sales life cycle curve.
FIG. 2 illustrates a general process flow diagram of a drug society inventory calculation method. As shown in S201, first, a sales life cycle curve of the target drug of the first lot number in the target area is determined. Next, as shown in step S202, the exposure rate and the sale duration of the second lot of the target medicine in the target area are obtained. Then, as shown in step S203, based on the obtained exposure rate and sales duration of the target drug of the second lot number, the social inventory of the target drug of the second lot number in the target area is calculated with reference to the sales lifecycle curve.
Fig. 3 and 4 show a first embodiment of the present invention, which is described in detail with reference to fig. 3 and 4, and a method for calculating social inventory of drugs is described in detail:
1000 drugstores in a certain area (N)store1000) targeted to estimate the social inventory of the region's lot 1234, the second lot of the a cold drug. Here, the second batch of cold a medications was sold in non-flu high-rise seasons. The calculation steps are as follows:
step 1: the information of the first batch number of the A cold medicine is obtained from the manufacturer, and the first batch number also needs to be sold in the non-flu high-incidence season. Wherein, the total input amount of the first batch number to the region is 100000 boxes; the duration of sale of the first lot number in the region is 10 months; according to the record of the salesman of the company, after the cold medicine A of the first batch number enters the store, about 15 boxes of medicine are sold each month, namely
Step 2: and (3) fitting a sale life cycle curve of the first batch number of the A cold medicine by using a formula 1 according to the data in the step 1.
Specifically, in the formula 1
ltmax (i.e. 10 months), NstoreTotal, is a known term, and the relationship between E (lt) and lt can be determined according to equation 1, as shown in FIG. 3.
As can be seen from fig. 3, when the cold medicine is sold in the non-flu season, the early exposure rate rises rapidly, which means that the speed of gradually placing the medicine from the wholesaler to the sales terminal from the time when the medicine of the lot number is input into the area rises rapidly, and the middle stage of entering the platform means that the medicine has been basically placed to all the sales terminals of the area, that is, the medicine of the lot number covers all the sales terminals of the area. And, because the selling speed of cold medicines is slow in non-flu high-incidence seasons, there is a long plateau.
And step 3: the exposure rate of the second batch of cold drug a obtained from the manufacturer was 0.53 in the area, the time period of sale was about 2 months in the area, and the total input amount to the area was 70000 boxes.
And 4, step 4: from the sales lifecycle curve for the first lot number, one can obtain: if the exposure is 0.53, the sales period may be 2.7 months or 7.3 months, i.e., points A or B in FIG. 4. Since the sale duration of the second batch of the cold medicine A is about 2 months, it is obvious that the second batch of the cold medicine A is at the point A of the sale life cycle.
And 5: and calculating the sales condition at the point A by using the sales life cycle curve of the first batch number.
In particular, this is achievedThe time ltmax is 2.7, and after being substituted into the formula 1, the area A enclosed by the point A of the sales life cycle curve is calculated as shown in the following formula 2area＝13036。
Then, the stock ratio Rate at the point a is calculated to be about 87% using the following equation 3.
Rate 1-Aarea/Total 1-13036/100000-1-13-87%, formula 3
Step 6: using the following formula 4, the social stock of the second lot number of cold a medicines was calculated to be about 60900 boxes based on the stock ratio obtained in step 5.
70000 × 87%, (60900) formula 4
Fig. 5 and 6 show a second embodiment of the present invention, which is described in detail with reference to fig. 5 and 6, and the method for calculating social inventory of drugs is described in detail:
1000 drugstores in a certain area (N)store1000) targeted to estimate the social inventory of the region's lot number 5678, the second lot of cold a drugs. Here, the second lot a cold drug was sold in the season of high flu. The calculation steps are as follows:
step 1: the first information of the A cold medicine is obtained from the manufacturer, and the first number also needs to be sold in the season with high influenza. Wherein, the total input amount of the first batch number to the region is 100000 boxes; the duration of sale of the first lot in this area was 2 months (note: the rate of sale of cold medication was higher than in non-high-rise seasons due to high flu season); according to the record of the salesman of the company, after the cold medicine A of the first batch number enters the store, about 120 boxes of medicine are sold each month, namely
Step 2: and (3) fitting a sale life cycle curve of the first batch number of the A cold medicine by using a formula 1 according to the data in the step 1.
Specifically, in the formula 1
ltmax (i.e. 2 months), NstoreTotal, is a known term, and the relationship between E (lt) and lt can be determined according to equation 1, as shown in FIG. 5.
As can be seen from fig. 5, when the cold medicines are sold in the season with high flu, the platform period of the sales life cycle curve is short, which means that the cold medicines are sold at a very fast rate and are sold out only for a short time at some sales terminals. This is clearly different from the marketing features of the cold remedy shown in fig. 3 in non-flu high-incidence seasons.
And step 3: the exposure rate of the second batch a of cold drug obtained from the manufacturer was 0.53 in the area, the sales time in the area was about 3 weeks (the sales time was counted in weeks because of the high-incidence period), and the total input amount to the area was 70000 boxes.
And 4, step 4: from the sales lifecycle curve for the first lot number, one can obtain: if the exposure is 0.53, the sales period may be 0.7 months (2.8 weeks) or 1.3 months (5.2 weeks), i.e., points A or B in FIG. 6. Since the sale duration of the second batch of the cold drug a is about 3 weeks, it is obvious that the second batch is currently at point a of its sale lifecycle.
And 5: and calculating the sales condition at the point A by using the sales life cycle curve of the first batch number.
Specifically, the area a of the sales life cycle curve from the point a is calculated by substituting ltmax of 0.7 into equation 1 and calculating the area a of the sales life cycle curve from the point a as shown in equation 2area＝29592。
Then, the stock ratio Rate at the point a is calculated to be about 87% using the following equation 3.
Rate 1-Aarea/Total 1-29592/100000-1-30%: 70% formula 3
Step 6: using the following equation 4, the social stock of the second lot number of cold a medicines was calculated to be about 49000 boxes based on the stock ratio obtained in step 5.
70000 × 70%, (49000) formula 4
In summary, the social inventory calculation method for drugs according to the present invention is based on statistical analysis of sales data from the time when a drug with a certain lot number provided by a wholesaler enters the market to the time when the drug disappears from the market, and fits a substantially bell-shaped sales life cycle curve, and calculates the social inventory of another lot number of the drug by using the substantially bell-shaped sales life cycle curve. The method is simple and easy to implement, has higher accuracy in estimating social inventory, and can better guide drug manufacturers to make drug production plans.
Those of ordinary skill in the art will appreciate that the various illustrative elements and algorithm steps described in connection with the embodiments disclosed herein may be implemented as electronic hardware, or combinations of computer software and electronic hardware. Whether such functionality is implemented as hardware or software depends upon the particular application and design constraints imposed on the solution. Those skilled in the art may select different ways to implement the described functionality for specific applications, but such implementation decisions should not be interpreted as causing a departure from the scope of the present invention.
If the described functionality is implemented in the form of computer software and sold or used as a stand-alone product, it is to some extent possible to consider all or part of the technical solution of the invention (for example, the part contributing to the prior art) to be embodied in the form of a computer software product. The computer software product is generally stored in a non-volatile storage medium readable by a computer and includes several instructions for causing a computer device (which may be a personal computer, a server, or a network device) to perform all or part of the steps of the methods according to the embodiments of the present invention. The storage medium includes various media capable of storing program codes, such as a usb disk, a removable hard disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a Random Access Memory (RAM), a magnetic disk, or an optical disk.
The above description is only for the specific embodiments of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art can easily conceive of the changes or substitutions within the technical scope of the present invention, and all the changes or substitutions should be covered within the scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the present invention shall be subject to the protection scope of the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A computer-readable storage medium on which a program is stored, the program causing a computer to execute the steps of:
receiving first circulation data of a first batch number of target medicines in a target area, wherein the first circulation data comprises the number of sales terminals of the target medicines with the first batch number in the target area, the total number of the sales terminals in the target area, and circulation duration of the first batch number of the target medicines, and the circulation duration represents the time elapsed since the target medicines with the first batch number enter the target area;
fitting a life cycle curve of the target drug based on the first flow-through data;
receiving second circulation data of a second batch of target medicines in the target area, wherein the second circulation data comprises the number of sales terminals of the target medicines with the second batch of numbers in the target area and circulation duration of the second batch of numbers of the target medicines; and
and calculating the stock quantity of the target medicine of the second batch number in the target area by referring to the life cycle curve based on the second circulation data.
2. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 1, wherein fitting a life cycle curve of the target drug based on the first circulation data comprises:
counting the Total input amount Total of the target medicines of the first batch number in the target area;
counting the total number N of the sales terminals aiming at the target medicine in the target areastore；
Acquiring data of exposure rate of the target medicine of the first batch number in the target area, wherein the exposure rate comprises a plurality of time points, and the exposure rate represents the ratio of the number of sales terminals of the target medicine with the first batch number in the target area to the total number of sales terminals in the target area; and
data based on the obtained exposure rate, the Total input amount Total and the Total number N of the sales terminalsstoreAnd fitting the life cycle curve.
3. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 2, wherein the data based on the obtained exposure rate and the Total input amount Total and the Total number of sales terminals N are stored in a memorystoreFitting the life cycle curve comprises:
calculating an average sales rate of the target drug of the first lot number in the target area
And
the life cycle curve is fitted based on the following formula,
4. the computer-readable storage medium of claim 1, wherein the life cycle curve is bell-shaped.
5. The computer-readable storage medium of claim 1,
the life cycle curve represents the relationship between the exposure rate and the circulation time length of the target medicine of the first batch number in the target area, the exposure rate represents the ratio of the number of the sales terminals of the target medicine with the first batch number in the target area relative to the total number of the sales terminals in the target area,
calculating an inventory amount of the target drug of the second lot number in the target area includes:
calculating the exposure rate of the target drug of the second lot number;
determining at least one point on the life cycle curve corresponding to the calculated exposure rate of the target drug for the second lot number;
selecting a point corresponding to the circulation time length of the acquired target medicine of the second batch number from the at least one point as a target point;
calculating a portion of the life cycle curve from the origin of the coordinate system to the target point, a straight line extending from the target point to a horizontal axis of the coordinate system in parallel to a longitudinal axis of the coordinate system, and a first area of a region surrounded by the horizontal axis;
the following area ratios were calculated: the area ratio is a ratio of the first area to an area of a region enclosed by the life cycle curve and the horizontal axis; and
calculating the stock quantity of the target medicine of the second lot number in the target area by using the area ratio and the total input quantity of the target medicine of the second lot number in the target area.
6. A medicine inventory monitoring method for calculating an inventory of a target medicine in a target area, comprising:
receiving first circulation data of a first batch number of the target medicine in a target area, wherein the first circulation data comprises the number of sales terminals of the target medicine with the first batch number in the target area, the total number of sales terminals in the target area, and circulation duration of the first batch number of the target medicine, and the circulation duration represents the time elapsed since the target medicine with the first batch number enters the target area;
fitting a life cycle curve of the target drug based on the first flow-through data;
receiving second circulation data of a second batch of target medicines in the target area, wherein the second circulation data comprises the number of sales terminals of the target medicines with the second batch of numbers in the target area and circulation duration of the second batch of numbers of the target medicines; and
and calculating the stock quantity of the target medicine of the second batch number in the target area by referring to the life cycle curve based on the second circulation data.
7. The drug inventory monitoring method of claim 6, wherein fitting a life cycle curve of the target drug based on the first circulation data comprises:
counting the Total input amount Total of the target medicines of the first batch number in the target area;
counting the total number N of the sales terminals aiming at the target medicine in the target areastore；
Acquiring data of exposure rate of the target medicine of the first batch number in the target area, wherein the exposure rate comprises a plurality of time points, and the exposure rate represents the ratio of the number of sales terminals of the target medicine with the first batch number in the target area to the total number of sales terminals in the target area; and
data based on the obtained exposure rate, the Total input amount Total and the Total number N of the sales terminalsstoreAnd fitting the life cycle curve.
8. The drug inventory monitoring method as claimed in claim 7, wherein the exposure rate is obtained based on the data of the exposure rate andthe Total input amount Total and the Total number N of the sales terminalsstoreFitting the life cycle curve comprises:
calculating an average sales rate of the target drug of the first lot number in the target area
And
the life cycle curve is fitted based on the following formula,
9. the drug inventory monitoring method of claim 6, wherein the life cycle curve is bell-shaped.
10. The drug inventory monitoring method according to claim 6,
the life cycle curve represents the relationship between the exposure rate and the circulation time length of the target medicine of the first batch number in the target area, the exposure rate represents the ratio of the number of the sales terminals of the target medicine with the first batch number in the target area relative to the total number of the sales terminals in the target area,
calculating an inventory amount of the target drug of the second lot number in the target area includes:
calculating the exposure rate of the target drug of the second lot number;
determining at least one point on the life cycle curve corresponding to the calculated exposure rate of the target drug for the second lot number;
selecting a point corresponding to the circulation time length of the acquired target medicine of the second batch number from the at least one point as a target point;
calculating a portion of the life cycle curve from the origin of the coordinate system to the target point, a straight line extending from the target point to a horizontal axis of the coordinate system in parallel to a longitudinal axis of the coordinate system, and a first area of a region surrounded by the horizontal axis;
the following area ratios were calculated: the area ratio is a ratio of the first area to an area of a region enclosed by the life cycle curve and the horizontal axis; and
calculating the stock quantity of the target medicine of the second lot number in the target area by using the area ratio and the total input quantity of the target medicine of the second lot number in the target area.
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