CN113051741B - Method and device for solving reliability parameters of high-voltage direct-current transmission system element - Google Patents
Method and device for solving reliability parameters of high-voltage direct-current transmission system element Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a method and a device for solving reliability parameters of elements of a high-voltage direct-current transmission system, wherein the method comprises the following steps: acquiring reliability parameters of elements to be solved of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system; inputting the reliability parameters of the element to be solved into a reliability evaluation model of a preset high-voltage direct-current transmission system, and calculating the reliability index of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system by adopting a state transfer sampling method in a time sequence Monte Carlo; the reliability evaluation model of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system is constructed by adopting an analytic method; inputting the reliability index into an equation set model of a preset reliability index about the reliability parameter of the element to be solved; and solving an equation set model of the reliability index relative to the reliability parameter of the element to be solved by adopting an interval algorithm combining interval bipartite and Krawczyk-Hansen operator. The method and the device can accurately solve and obtain the reliability parameters of the main elements of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system, thereby providing more reliable basis for reliable and safe operation or planning of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of high-voltage direct-current transmission, in particular to a method and a device for correcting reliability parameters of elements of a high-voltage direct-current transmission system.
Background
Reliability assessment of a hvdc transmission system refers to the ability of the hvdc transmission system to deliver electrical energy over a period of time. The transmission capacity of the HVDC transmission system is large, and huge loss is caused once the system fails, so that the reliability of the HVDC transmission system is accurately quantized, and the method has great practical significance.
In planning a direct current transmission project, it is generally necessary to calculate the reliability of the planning scheme to evaluate whether the scheme meets a predetermined reliability requirement, and then select an extension or reinforcement measure. Typically reliability assessment estimates system reliability metrics based on topology, component reliability parameters (failure rate and repair time), etc. However, component reliability parameters are typically obtained from historical fault statistics, and therefore, these data tend to suffer from a variety of uncertainties, which are presently mainly represented in the following aspects: 1) The power system involves massive statistical data, and invalid records or deletions are unavoidable; 2) The reliability parameters of the element change along with the aging of the equipment, and if the data is not updated timely, the reliability parameters are inaccurate; 3) In some occasions, the reliability parameters are manually recorded, but the personnel quality is uneven, so that the reliability parameters are inaccurate.
Therefore, for the high-voltage direct-current transmission system, the selection of the element reliability parameters can directly influence the accuracy of the reliability evaluation of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system, and even influence the reliable and safe operation of the planned direct-current transmission system. In addition, for the grid company, the wrong reliability evaluation result may also mislead the bid of the direct current transmission device. Thus, obtaining accurate component reliability parameters is a critical issue in performing reliability evaluations.
Therefore, how to obtain accurate element reliability parameters and improve the accuracy of reliability evaluation is a technical problem to be solved by those skilled in the art.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the invention aims to solve the problem of inaccurate element reliability parameter acquisition in the actual direct current transmission project, and provides a method and a device for solving the element reliability parameter of a high-voltage direct current transmission system, which are used for accurately solving and obtaining the reliability parameter of a main element of the high-voltage direct current transmission system, so that a more reliable basis can be provided for reliable and safe operation or planning of the high-voltage direct current transmission system.
In order to solve the above technical problems, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method for solving reliability parameters of a component of a hvdc transmission system, including:
Acquiring reliability parameters of elements to be solved of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system;
inputting the reliability parameters of the element to be solved into a reliability evaluation model of a preset high-voltage direct-current transmission system, and calculating the reliability index of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system by adopting a state transfer sampling method in a time sequence Monte Carlo; the reliability evaluation model of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system is constructed by adopting an analytic method;
inputting the reliability index into an equation set model of a preset reliability index about the reliability parameter of the element to be solved;
and solving an equation set model of the reliability index relative to the reliability parameter of the element to be solved by adopting an interval algorithm combining interval bipartite and Krawczyk-Hansen operator.
Further, the method for constructing the equation set model of the reliability index about the reliability parameter of the element to be solved comprises the following steps:
constructing a reliability evaluation model of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system by adopting an analytic method;
acquiring reliability parameters of all elements of the HVDC transmission system;
inputting the reliability parameters of all the elements into a reliability evaluation model of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system, and calculating the reliability index of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system by adopting a state transfer sampling method in a time sequence Monte Carlo;
According to the reliability parameters of all the elements and the reliability indexes, constructing an analytical model of the reliability indexes of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system about the reliability parameters of the elements by adopting a full probability formula;
and constructing an equation set model of the reliability index about the element reliability parameter to be solved according to the analysis model of the reliability index about the element reliability parameter of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system.
Further, if the hvdc system is a dual 12-pulse hvdc system, the element reliability parameters include an element failure rate and an element repair rate, and the reliability indexes of the hvdc system include an energy unavailability rate, a monopole forced outage frequency and a bipolar forced outage frequency, the calculating the reliability indexes of the hvdc system by using a state transition sampling method in time sequence monte carlo specifically includes:
step 3.1, assuming that the element state duration is subjected to exponential distribution, and the element is all normal at the initial moment;
step 3.2, calculating the System State duration T according to (1) k In the formula (1), m is the total number of outward transition cases of the current state, and U is [0,1]Random number lambda between i For the state transition rate of element i, i.e. the reliability parameter, τ i The state transition rate for element i is equal to τ i The component failure rate or the component repair rate;
step 3.3, calculating the state transition probability P of the element j according to the following formula (2) j And obtaining an element cumulative transition probability Pi according to the formula (3);
step 3.4, performing element State transition positioning according to equation (4), if C h Element state transition occurs, otherwise element state remains unchanged, =1.
C h ＝find(P i >rand(1))(4)；
Wherein C is h Indicating whether the recorded state is shifted, i.e. whether the element is shifted from the normal state to the fault state;
step 3.5, after a certain number of system states are obtained, calculating the system state S State ；
Step 3.6, updating the reliability index according to formulas (5), (6) and (7), and counting the forced outage times of the single pole and the double pole;
EOT(i)＝T i (1-available Capacity during off-line ≡P) S )(7)；
Wherein EU is energy unavailability and T is time scale; TEOT is total equivalent off-time in T; EOT (i) is the ith equivalent off-time in one year; n is the total shutdown times; ti represents the ith actual fault shutdown time, and Ps represents the rated capacity of the system;
and 3.7, calculating a variance coefficient n, wherein if n is smaller than a preset constant as shown in a formula (8), stopping iterative calculation, outputting a corresponding reliability index, otherwise, repeating the steps 3.2-3.4, and generating a new system state.
Wherein T is a time scale, S State Is the system state.
Further, if the hvdc system is a dual 12-pulse hvdc system, the element reliability parameters include an element failure rate and an element repair rate, and the reliability indexes of the hvdc system include an energy unavailability rate, a monopole forced outage frequency and a bipolar forced outage frequency, then the analyzing model of the reliability indexes of the hvdc system with respect to the element reliability parameters is obtained by adopting a full probability formula according to the reliability parameters of all the elements and the reliability indexes, and specifically includes:
the failure rate lambda of the element 1 is known by the energy unavailability EU, the number of forced single-pole stops MFOT and the number of forced double-pole stops BFOT 1 And repair rate mu 1 Unknown, failure rate lambda of element 2 2 Unknown repair rate μ of element 3 3 Unknown, since the number of elements whose parameters are unknown is 3, the combination of the states of these elements is 2 in total 3 Let X denote the unknown parameter vector [ lambda ] of elements 1, 2, 3 for the case =8 1 ,μ 1 ,λ 2 ,μ 3 ]The analysis model of the energy unavailability EU, the analysis model of the monopole forced outage frequency MFOT and the analysis model of the bipolar forced outage frequency BFOT are respectively:
(1) The analytical model of the energy unavailability EU is
In the above formula (9), A i 、U i (i=1, 2, 3) represents steady-state availability and steady-state unavailability, a i ＝μ i /(λ i +μ i )，U i ＝λ i /(λ i +μ i )，
Expressed as:
in the above formula (10), B_EU j A set of system outage events representing the 3 elements under study in the j-th combined state; phi b Indicating the normal operating state of the system after removing the states already listed above in each case;
is phi b Is a complement of (a); c represents the per-unit value of the capacity state in the corresponding state;
(2) The analytical model of the monopole forced outage times MFOT is as follows:
in the above-mentioned (11),
expressed as:
in formula (12), B_MFOT j A system monopole forced outage event representing the 3 elements under study in the j-th combined stateIs a collection of (3);
(3) The analysis model of the bipolar forced outage frequency BFOT is as follows:
in the above-mentioned formula (13),
expressed as:
in formula (14), B_BFOT j Representing a set of system bipolar forced outage events for the 3 elements under study in the j-th combined state.
Further, the equation set model of the reliability index about the reliability parameter of the element to be solved is specifically:
wherein EU is 0 、MFOT 0 、BFOT 0 Respectively representing given values of the energy unavailability EU, the number of times of forced single-pole shutdown MFOT and the number of times of forced double-pole shutdown BFOT; f (f) EU (X)、f MFOT (X) and f BFOT (X) is a nonlinear equation of the energy unavailability EU, the number of times of forced outage MFOT of the monopole, and the number of times of forced outage BFOT of the dipole, respectively.
Further, the method for solving the equation set model of the reliability index about the reliability parameter of the element to be solved by adopting an interval algorithm combining interval bisection and Krawczyk-Hansen operator specifically comprises the following steps:
step 6.1: ream [ X ]]＝[X] 0 ∈I(R n ) Initializing a table partitioning interval table B and a partitioning interval table T; initializing a binary variable number b=1, a binary interval table length l=1, giving convergence precision epsilon and xi of a solution interval, and initializing an interval width coefficient alpha;
step 6.2: h (X) and Z=X.u.H (X) are calculated from the Krawczyk-Hansen operator
Wherein X is an interval vector; h (X) is Krawczyk-Hansen operator; y is the midpoint of the interval solution X; m (X) is the midpoint of the interval vector X; i is an n-order identity matrix; y is an n-order nonsingular matrix; l (X) and U (X) are respectively interval matrix [ I-YF' (X)]Lower triangular matrix and upper triangular matrix X of (a) 1 And
respectively representing the upper and lower bounds of the first component of the interval solution X; x is X n Is the nth component of the interval solution X.
Step 6.3: judging the existence and the uniqueness of the solution according to the inclusion relation of Z and X; if it is
Then go to step 6.6; if W (X) belongs to X, then there is a solution on X, turning to step 6.4; if W (Z) <αw (X), then x=z, go to step 6.2; otherwise, turning to step 6.5; the method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Wherein W (X) is the width of interval X, W (Z) is the width of interval Z;
step 6.4: taking m (X) as an initial value, performing iterative calculation by using a point Newton method to obtain a solution X of the equation set, and storing the solution X into a table T;
step 6.5: if W (X)<And xi, storing X into T, and turning to step 6.6. Bisecting the component Xb of the interval vector X to obtain
Will [ b X，m(X b )]Store interval table B, let->
Binary sequence number b=b+1, go to step 6.2;
step 6.6: if l=0, go to step 6.7. Taking out the section arranged at the head from the section table B, giving X, l=l-1, and turning to the step 6.2;
step 6.7: outputting all solution intervals in the table T; if T is an empty set, then the system of equations has no solution.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a device for solving reliability parameters of a component of a hvdc transmission system, including:
the acquisition unit is used for acquiring reliability parameters of elements to be solved of the HVDC transmission system;
the first input unit is used for inputting the reliability parameters of the element to be required into a reliability evaluation model of a preset high-voltage direct-current transmission system, and calculating the reliability index of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system by adopting a state transition sampling method in a time sequence Monte Carlo; the reliability evaluation model of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system is constructed by adopting an analytic method;
The second input unit is used for inputting the reliability index into an equation set model of the reliability index about the reliability parameter of the element to be solved;
and the solving unit is used for solving an equation set model of the reliability index relative to the reliability parameter of the element to be solved by adopting an interval algorithm combining interval bisection and a Krawczyk-Hansen operator.
Further, the method for constructing the equation set model of the reliability index about the reliability parameter of the element to be solved comprises the following steps:
constructing a reliability evaluation model of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system by adopting an analytic method;
acquiring reliability parameters of all elements of the HVDC transmission system;
inputting the reliability parameters of all the elements into a reliability evaluation model of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system, and calculating the reliability index of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system by adopting a state transfer sampling method in a time sequence Monte Carlo;
according to the reliability parameters of all the elements and the reliability indexes, constructing an analytical model of the reliability indexes of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system about the reliability parameters of the elements by adopting a full probability formula;
and constructing an equation set model of the reliability index about the element reliability parameter to be solved according to the analysis model of the reliability index about the element reliability parameter of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a hvdc transmission system element reliability parameter solving device, including a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, the processor implementing the hvdc transmission system element reliability parameter solving method according to any of the above when executing the computer program.
In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer readable storage medium, where the computer readable storage medium includes a stored computer program, where when the computer program runs, the computer readable storage medium is controlled to execute a method for solving a reliability parameter of an element of a hvdc transmission system according to any one of the preceding claims.
The invention provides a method for solving reliability parameters of elements of a high-voltage direct-current transmission system, which comprises the steps of firstly, obtaining reliability parameters of elements to be solved of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system; inputting the reliability parameters of the element to be solved into a reliability evaluation model of a preset high-voltage direct-current transmission system, and calculating the reliability index of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system by adopting a state transfer sampling method in a time sequence Monte Carlo; the reliability evaluation model of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system is constructed by adopting an analytic method; inputting the reliability index into an equation set model of a preset reliability index about the reliability parameter of the element to be solved; and solving an equation set model of the reliability index relative to the reliability parameter of the element to be solved by adopting an interval algorithm combining interval bipartite and Krawczyk-Hansen operator. Through the design, the embodiment of the invention can accurately solve and obtain the reliability parameters of the main elements of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system, thereby providing more reliable basis for the reliable and safe operation or planning of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, the drawings that are needed in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and that other drawings can be obtained according to these drawings without inventive effort for a person skilled in the art.
Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a method for solving reliability parameters of a component of a hvdc transmission system according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a subsystem division of a dual 12-pulse wire HVDC system;
fig. 3 is a schematic diagram of an ac filter subsystem in a dual 12-pulse wiring hvdc transmission system.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments of the present invention will be made clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which it is apparent that the embodiments described are only some embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the invention.
It should be understood that the step numbers used herein are for convenience of description only and are not limiting as to the order in which the steps are performed.
It is to be understood that the terminology used in the description of the invention is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the invention. As used in this specification and the appended claims, the singular forms "a," "an," and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.
The terms "comprises" and "comprising" indicate the presence of stated features, integers, steps, operations, elements, and/or components, but do not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components, and/or groups thereof.
The term "and/or" refers to any and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items, and includes such combinations.
Example 1:
the embodiment of the invention provides a method for correcting reliability parameters of elements of a high-voltage direct-current transmission system, which comprises the following steps of S1-S4:
s1, obtaining reliability parameters of elements to be solved of the HVDC system.
Specifically, the component reliability parameters include a component failure rate and a component repair rate.
S2, inputting the reliability parameters of the element to be solved into a reliability evaluation model of a preset high-voltage direct-current transmission system, and calculating the reliability index of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system by adopting a state transfer sampling method in a time sequence Monte Carlo; the reliability evaluation model of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system is constructed by adopting an analytic method.
Specifically, the reliability indexes of the hvdc transmission system include energy unavailability rate, monopole forced outage times and bipolar forced outage times, and the reliability evaluation model of the preset hvdc transmission system is not a preset reliability evaluation model of the double 12-pulse hvdc transmission system.
S3, inputting the reliability index into an equation set model of the reliability index about the reliability parameter of the element to be solved.
And S4, solving an equation set model of the reliability index relative to the reliability parameter of the element to be solved by adopting an interval algorithm combining interval dichotomy and Krawczyk-Hansen operator.
The invention provides a method for solving reliability parameters of elements of a high-voltage direct-current transmission system, which comprises the steps of firstly, obtaining reliability parameters of elements to be solved of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system; inputting the reliability parameters of the element to be solved into a reliability evaluation model of a preset high-voltage direct-current transmission system, and calculating the reliability index of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system by adopting a state transfer sampling method in a time sequence Monte Carlo; the reliability evaluation model of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system is constructed by adopting an analytic method; inputting the reliability index into an equation set model of a preset reliability index about the reliability parameter of the element to be solved; and solving an equation set model of the reliability index relative to the reliability parameter of the element to be solved by adopting an interval algorithm combining interval bipartite and Krawczyk-Hansen operator. Through the design, the embodiment of the invention can accurately solve and obtain the reliability parameters of the main elements of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system, thereby providing more reliable basis for the reliable and safe operation or planning of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system.
As an example of the embodiment of the present invention, the method for constructing the equation set model of the reliability index with respect to the reliability parameter of the element to be solved includes:
s31, constructing a reliability evaluation model of the HVDC system by adopting an analytic method;
it should be noted that, when the hvdc system is evaluated, the entire hvdc system is often divided into a plurality of subsystems, as shown in fig. 2, which is a schematic diagram of the division of the subsystems of the hvdc system with double 12 pulses, including a converter transformer subsystem, an ac filter subsystem, a dc transmission line subsystem, a valve group subsystem and a dc field subsystem. And obtaining the reliability model of the HVDC system by constructing the reliability evaluation model of each subsystem of the HVDC system. The specific process for establishing the reliability evaluation model of each subsystem of the double 12-pulse high-voltage direct-current transmission system is as follows:
(1) Converter transformer subsystem
In fig. 2, the a module represents the converter transformer subsystem. From the a module, it can be seen that:
the converter transformer subsystem is provided with 12 converter transformers on each pole, wherein 6Y/Y and Y/delta wires are respectively connected;
Each converter valve is connected with a converter transformer with different wiring, wherein the Y/Y wiring and the Y/delta wiring are respectively 3;
therefore, the typical component group is stopped for 6 converter transformers corresponding to a single 12-pulse converter valve, and the converter transformer subsystem cannot be directly equivalent to a multi-state component for reliability evaluation. The module a can know that a serial structure is arranged between 3Y/Y converters and 3Y/delta converters corresponding to each converter valve, and the failure rate and the equivalent repair rate of the equivalent element can be obtained according to the failure rate and the equivalent repair rate equivalent formula of the serial structure, and the failure rate and the equivalent repair rate are respectively shown in the following formulas.
Wherein n is the number of elements, 6 is taken here; con is a converter transformer wiring mode, Y/Y type or Y/delta type; lambda (lambda) i_con Sum mu i_con The fault rate and the repair rate of the ith Y/Y or Y/delta wiring converter transformer are respectively; lambda (lambda) s_con Sum mu s_con The equivalent fault rate and the repair rate of the converter transformer corresponding to one converter valve are respectively.
(2) AC filter subsystem
In fig. 1, the b module represents an ac filter subsystem, and the ac filter subsystem is structured as shown in fig. 3. As can be seen from fig. 3: the AC filter subsystem has more elements and mainly comprises a main bus, a small bus, a circuit breaker and an AC filter; the structure is relatively complex, but the alternating current filter and the circuit breaker connected with the alternating current filter, and the small bus and the circuit breaker connected with the alternating current filter are in series connection, so that the alternating current filter can be equivalently used as a main bus, a small bus and an alternating current filter 3-type element according to the calculation formulas of the fault rate and the repair time. However, in actual engineering, different types and models of ac filters are often put into practice, so that a certain mode is required to determine the capacity state of the subsystem of the ac filter, and the present invention adopts a capacity state table as follows:
Assuming that there isClass 4 AC filters, each using F 1 、F 2 、F 3 、F 4 A representation; the number of each category is recorded as N 1 、N 2 、N 3 、N 4 . The present invention defines the operational equivalence to be expressed as: s is S eq ＝(N 1 *1000+N 2 *100+N 3 *10+N 4 * 1) The operational equivalent values and the capacity states are in one-to-one correspondence, and the capacity states under various operational conditions can be determined through the operational equivalent values. Such as F 1 After the AC filter fails, the equivalent system operation value S eq1 ＝S eq -1000, and determining the system capacity state according to the operational equivalence table.
(3) DC power transmission line subsystem
In fig. 1, the module c represents a dc transmission line subsystem, in which the elements are mainly hvdc transmission lines, and thus can be directly equivalent to two-state elements.
(4) Valve group subsystem
In fig. 1, the d block represents a valve block subsystem comprising two 12-pulse valve blocks of the same pole, wherein each 12-pulse valve block is connected in series by two 6-pulse valves. Therefore, each 12-pulse valve group can be equivalent to a two-state element according to the above calculation formula of the failure rate and the repair time. The two 12 pulse valve groups are in reliable parallel connection, namely, the failure of any valve group only causes the corresponding electrode to lose 50% of capacity.
(5) DC field subsystem
In fig. 1, the e module represents a dc field subsystem, in which the main components are a dc filter and a smoothing reactor, and any failure of two components can cause the pole to be stopped, so that the two components are in a series connection relationship, and can be equivalently a two-state component according to the above calculation formulas of failure rate and repair time.
S32, acquiring reliability parameters of all elements of the HVDC transmission system.
Specifically, the component reliability parameters include a component failure rate and a component repair rate.
S33, inputting the reliability parameters of all the elements into a reliability evaluation model of the HVDC system, and calculating the reliability index of the HVDC system by adopting a state transition sampling method in a time sequence Monte Carlo.
In the embodiment of the invention, the system state transition sampling method is a sequential Monte Carlo method for sampling the state transition of the whole system, and the focus is to determine the duration of the current state of the system and the next state and duration of the system. And finally, calculating to obtain the system reliability index through a large number of samples. The reliability indexes of the double 12-pulse high-voltage direct-current transmission system comprise: the energy unavailability EU, the number of forced single-pole outages MFOT and the number of forced double-pole outages BFOT. The definition of the energy unavailability EU, the monopole forced outage frequency MFOT and the bipolar forced outage frequency BFOT is specifically:
(1) Energy unavailability rate
EOT(i)＝T i (1-available Capacity during off-line ≡P) S )
Wherein T is a time scale; TEOT is total equivalent off-time in T; EOT (i) is the ith equivalent off-time in one year; and N is the total shutdown times.
(2) Number of forced single pole outages
MFOT index is defined as the number of times a single pole forced outage of a high voltage direct current power transmission system (HVDC) occurs during time T.
(3) Bipolar forced stop times
The BFOT index is defined as the number of bipolar forced outages that occur in a high voltage direct current transmission system (HVDC) during time T.
Specifically, if the hvdc system is a dual 12-pulse hvdc system, the element reliability parameters include an element failure rate and an element repair rate, and the reliability indexes of the hvdc system include an energy unavailability rate, a monopole forced outage frequency and a bipolar forced outage frequency, the calculating the reliability indexes of the hvdc system by using a state transition sampling method in time sequence monte carlo specifically includes:
step 331, assuming that the element state duration is subjected to exponential distribution, and the element is all normal at the initial moment;
step 332, calculating the system state duration T according to equation (1) k In the formula (1), m is the total number of outward transition cases of the current state, and U is [0,1]Random number lambda between i State transition rate for element i
Step 333, calculating the state transition probability P of the element j according to the following formula (2) j And obtaining the cumulative transition probability P of the element according to the formula (3) i ；
Step 334, performing element state transition positioning according to equation (4), if C h Element state transition occurs, otherwise element state remains unchanged, =1.
C h ＝find(P i >rand(1)) (4)；
Wherein C is h Indicating whether the recorded state is shifted, i.e. whether the element is shifted from the normal state to the fault state;
step 335, after obtaining a certain number of system states, calculating the system state S State ；
Step 336, updating the reliability index according to formulas (5), (6) and (7), and counting the forced outage times of the monopole and the dipole;
EOT(i)＝T i (1-available Capacity during off-line ≡P) S ) (7)；
Wherein EU is energy unavailability and T is time scale; TEOT is total equivalent off-time in T; EOT (i) is the ith equivalent off-time in one year; n is the total shutdown times; ti represents the ith actual fault shutdown time, and Ps represents the rated capacity of the system;
step 337, calculating a variance coefficient n, as shown in formula (8), if n is smaller than a preset constant, stopping iterative calculation, and outputting a corresponding reliability index, otherwise, repeating steps 332-334 to generate a new system state.
Wherein T is a time scale, S State Is the system state.
S34, constructing an analysis model of the reliability index of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system about the reliability parameters of the elements by adopting a full probability formula according to the reliability parameters of all the elements and the reliability index.
In the embodiment of the invention, the analysis model of the reliability index of the high-voltage direct-current power transmission system about the element reliability parameter is an analysis expression of the reliability index of the high-voltage direct-current power transmission system about the element reliability parameter.
Specifically, according to the reliability parameters and the reliability indexes, an analytic model of the energy unavailability EU, the monopole forced outage times MFOT and the bipolar forced outage times BFO of the double 12-pulse high-voltage direct-current transmission system relative to the element reliability parameters can be constructed by utilizing a full probability formula.
Assuming that the energy unavailability EU and the number of forced single-pole stops MFOT, the number of forced double-pole stops BFOT are known, the failure rate λ of the element 1 1 And repair rate mu 1 Unknown, failure rate lambda of element 2 2 Unknown repair rate μ of element 3 3 Unknown, to derive a component reliability parameter solution model. The number of elements whose parameters are unknown is 3, and the combination of the states of these elements is 2 in total 3 In the embodiment of the present invention, the unknown parameter vector [ lambda ] of the elements 1, 2, 3 is represented by x=8 cases 1 ,μ 1 ,λ 2 ,μ 3 ]The analytical model of the energy unavailability EU and the analytical model of the monopole forced outage times MFOT are respectively:
(1) The analytical model of the energy unavailability EU is:
In the above, A i 、U i (i=1, 2, 3) represents steady-state availability and steady-state unavailability, a i ＝μ i /(λ i +μ i )，U i ＝λ i /(λ i +μ i )，
Expressed as: />
In the above, B_EU j A set of system outage events representing the 3 elements under study in the j-th combined state; phi b Indicating the normal operating state of the system after removing the states already listed above in each case;
is phi b Is a complement of (a); c represents the per-unit value of the capacity state in the corresponding state.
(2) The analytical model of the monopole forced outage times MFOT is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,
expressed as:
in the formula, B_MFOT j Representing a set of system monopole forced outage events with the 3 elements under study in the j-th combined state.
(3) The analysis model of the bipolar forced outage frequency BFOT is as follows:
in the above-mentioned method, the step of,
expressed as:
in B_BFOT j Representing a set of system bipolar forced outage events for the 3 elements under study in the j-th combined state.
S35, constructing an equation set model of the reliability index about the element reliability parameter to be solved according to the analysis model of the reliability index about the element reliability parameter of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system.
In the embodiment of the present invention, it should be understood that the equation set model of the reliability index with respect to the reliability parameter of the element to be solved is an equation set of the reliability index with respect to the reliability parameter of the element to be solved.
The equation set model of the reliability index about the reliability parameter of the element to be solved is specifically as follows:
wherein EU is 0 、MFOT 0 、BFOT 0 Respectively representing given values of the energy unavailability EU, the number of times of forced single-pole shutdown MFOT and the number of times of forced double-pole shutdown BFOT; f (f) EU (X)、f MFOT (X) and f BFOT (X) is a nonlinear equation of the energy unavailability EU, the number of times of forced outage MFOT of the monopole, and the number of times of forced outage BFOT of the dipole, respectively.
The equation in the above formula is written as follows:
F(X)＝0。
and S5, solving a nonlinear equation set model of the reliability index about the reliability parameter of the element to be solved by adopting an interval algorithm combining interval bisection and a Krawczyk-Hansen operator.
Specifically, the specific steps for solving the nonlinear equation set to obtain the element reliability parameter interval of the dual 12-pulse high-voltage direct-current transmission system include:
step 6.1: ream [ X ]]＝[X] 0 ∈I(R n ) Initializing a table partitioning table B and a partitioning table T. Initializing a binary variable number b=1, a binary interval table length l=1, giving convergence precision epsilon and xi of a solution interval, and initializing an interval width coefficient alpha; wherein [ X ]] 0 Representing a given value;
step 6.2: h (X) and Z=X.cndot.H (X) were calculated from the Krawczyk-Hansen operator.
H(y,X)＝y-Yf(y)+L(X)(H'-y)
+U(X)(X-y)，y∈X
H'＝H(y,X)∩X
m(X)＝(m(X 1 ),m(X 2 ),...m(X n )) T
Wherein X is an interval vector; h (X) is Krawczyk-Hansen operator, y is the midpoint m (X) of interval solution X is the midpoint of interval vector X; i is an n-order identity matrix; y is an n-order nonsingular matrix; l (X) and U (X) are respectively interval matrix [ I-YF' (X) ]Is provided with a lower triangular matrix and an upper triangular matrix,X 1 and
respectively representing the upper and lower bounds of the first component of the interval solution X; x is X n Is the nth component of the interval solution X.
Step 6.3: and judging the existence and the uniqueness of the solution according to the inclusion relation of Z and X. If it is
Then go to step 6.6; if W (X) belongs to X, then there is a solution on X, turning to step 6.4; if W (Z)<αw (X), then x=z, go to step 6.2; otherwise, turning to step 6.5; wherein W (X) is the width of the interval X, and W (Z) is the width of the interval Z.
Step 6.4: taking m (X) as an initial value, performing iterative calculation by using a point Newton method to obtain a solution X of the equation set, and storing the solution X into a table T;
step 6.5: if W (X)<And xi, storing X into T, and turning to step 6.6. Bisecting the component Xb of the interval vector X to obtain
Will [ b X,m(X b )]Store interval table B, let->
Binary sequence number b=b+1, go to step 6.2.
Step 6.6: if l=0, go to step 6.7. The section arranged in the header is extracted from the section table B and given X, l=l-1, and the procedure goes to step 6.2.
Step 6.7: all solution intervals in table T are output. If T is an empty set, then the system of equations has no solution.
In order to verify whether the method can accurately solve and obtain the reliability parameters of the main elements of the HVDC transmission system, the method for solving the reliability parameters of the elements of the HVDC transmission system is applied to an actual and practical HVDC transmission system, and the specific implementation process is as follows:
The first step is to obtain the element reliability parameters of the double 12 pulse wave wiring HVDC system, including the element failure rate and the element repair time. The schematic diagram of the double 12-pulse wiring HVDC transmission project is shown in FIG. 2. The inversion side and the rectification side share 24 converter transformers, and the 4 groups of valve groups further comprise smoothing reactors, alternating current filters and the like, wherein the smoothing reactors have three types. The original parameters of each element are shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 reliability parameters for dual 12 pulse wave wiring extra-high voltage DC transmission system
And secondly, calculating the energy unavailability rate EU, the monopole forced outage frequency MFOT and the bipolar forced outage frequency BFOT of the reliability index by using a state transition sampling method in the time sequence Monte Carlo.
The invention adopts a state transition sampling method to calculate the state outage capacity of the double 12 pulse wave wiring high voltage direct current transmission system as shown in a table 2, wherein the table respectively shows the state probability and the frequency index under each fault capacity state. The reliability index calculation result of the double 12-pulse wiring HVDC system is shown in Table 3.
TABLE 2 calculation results of probability and frequency corresponding to capacity state of double 12 pulse wave wiring HVDC transmission system
TABLE 3 evaluation results of main reliability index of double 12 pulse wave wiring HVDC transmission system
And thirdly, taking the reliability index obtained in the second step as input, inputting the reliability index into an equation set model of the reliability index constructed by the invention about the reliability parameter of the element to be solved, and solving the equation set model of the reliability index about the reliability parameter of the element to be solved by adopting an interval algorithm combining interval bisection and a Krawczyk-Hansen operator.
Step four, when only one of the 3 reliability indexes of forced energy unavailability rate, monopole forced outage rate and bipolar forced outage rate is known, obtaining any one element reliability parameter of failure rate and repair rate of elements 1,2 and 3, namely lambda 1 、λ 2 、λ 3 、μ 1 、μ 2 、μ 3 The reliability parameters of any one of the elements and the solving result are shown in table 4.
Fifthly, when any two of the reliability indexes of the forced energy unavailability rate, the monopole forced outage rate and the bipolar forced outage rate are known, obtaining lambda 1 、λ 2 、λ 3 、μ 1 、μ 2 、μ 3 The partial results of solving for any two combinations of element reliability parameters are shown in table 5.
Step six, when all the reliability indexes of forced energy unavailability rate, monopole forced outage rate and bipolar forced outage rate are known, obtaining lambda 1 、λ 2 、λ 3 、μ 1 、μ 2 、μ 3 The combination of reliability parameters of any three elements and the result of solving part are shown in table 6.
Table 4 results of parameter solving calculations
Table 5 results of parameter solving calculations
Table 6 results of parameter solving calculations
The calculation result shows that the invention can find the accurate interval solution of the element reliability parameter in a larger initial parameter value interval, namely the reliability parameter of the main element of the HVDC system can be accurately solved, and a more reliable basis is provided for the reliable and safe operation or planning of the DC power transmission system.
The previous description of the disclosed embodiments is provided to enable any person skilled in the art to make or use the present invention.
Example 2:
the embodiment of the invention provides a device for correcting the reliability parameters of elements of a high-voltage direct-current transmission system, which comprises the following components:
the construction unit is used for constructing a reliability evaluation model of the HVDC transmission system by adopting an analytic method;
the acquisition unit is used for acquiring reliability parameters of all elements of the HVDC transmission system;
the reliability index calculation unit is used for inputting the reliability parameters of all the elements into a reliability evaluation model of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system, and calculating the reliability index of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system by adopting a state transition sampling method in a time sequence Monte Carlo;
The establishing unit is used for obtaining an analytic expression of the reliability index of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system about the element reliability parameter by adopting a full probability formula according to the reliability parameters of all the elements and the reliability index, and establishing an equation set of the reliability index about the element reliability parameter to be solved according to the analytic expression of the reliability index of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system about the element reliability parameter;
and the correction unit is used for solving an equation set of the reliability index about the reliability parameter of the element to be solved by adopting an interval algorithm combining interval bisection and the Krawczyk-Hansen operator to obtain the corrected reliability parameter.
Example 3:
in a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a hvdc transmission system element reliability parameter solving device, including a processor, a memory, and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, where the processor executes the computer program to implement the hvdc transmission system element reliability parameter solving method according to any of the embodiments above.
Example 4:
the invention also provides a computer readable storage medium, which particularly comprises a stored computer program, wherein the computer program is used for controlling equipment where the computer readable storage medium is located to execute the method for solving the reliability parameters of the HVDC system component according to any embodiment.
It should be noted that, all or part of the flow of the method in the foregoing embodiment may also be implemented by a computer program, which may be stored in a computer readable storage medium and executed by a processor, and instruct related hardware to implement the steps of each of the foregoing method embodiments. Wherein the computer program comprises computer program code which may be in source code form, object code form, executable file or some intermediate form etc. The computer readable medium may include: any entity or device capable of carrying the computer program code, a recording medium, a U disk, a removable hard disk, a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a computer Memory, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a random access Memory (RAM, random Access Memory), an electrical carrier signal, a telecommunications signal, a software distribution medium, and so forth. It is further noted that the computer readable medium contains content that can be suitably scaled according to the requirements of jurisdictions in which such content is subject to legislation and patent practice, such as in certain jurisdictions in which such content is subject to such legislation and patent practice, the computer readable medium does not include electrical carrier signals and telecommunications signals.
While the foregoing is directed to the preferred embodiments of the present invention, it will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that changes and modifications may be made without departing from the principles of the invention, such changes and modifications are also intended to be within the scope of the invention.
Claims (9)
1. The method for solving the reliability parameters of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system element is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
acquiring reliability parameters of elements to be solved of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system;
inputting the reliability parameters of the element to be solved into a reliability evaluation model of a preset high-voltage direct-current transmission system, and calculating the reliability index of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system by adopting a state transfer sampling method in a time sequence Monte Carlo; the reliability evaluation model of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system is constructed by adopting an analytic method;
inputting the reliability index into an equation set model of a preset reliability index about the reliability parameter of the element to be solved;
solving an equation set model of the reliability index relative to the reliability parameter of the element to be solved by adopting an interval algorithm combining interval bipartite and Krawczyk-Hansen operator;
if the hvdc transmission system is a dual 12-pulse hvdc transmission system, the element reliability parameters include an element failure rate and an element repair rate, and the reliability indexes of the hvdc transmission system include an energy unavailability rate EU, a monopole forced outage frequency MFOT and a bipolar forced outage frequency BFOT, the calculating the reliability indexes of the hvdc transmission system by using a state transition sampling method in a time sequence monte carlo specifically includes:
Step 331, assuming that the element state duration is subjected to exponential distribution, and the element is all normal at the initial moment;
step 332, calculating the system state duration T according to equation (1) k In the formula (1), m is the total number of outward transition cases of the current state, and U is [0,1]Random number between，τ i State transition rate for element i:
step 333, τ j For the state transition rate of element j, the state transition probability P of element j is calculated according to the following equation (2) j And obtaining the cumulative transition probability P of the element according to the formula (3) i ：
Step 334, performing element state transition positioning according to equation (4), if C h Element state transition occurs, otherwise element state remains unchanged, =1;
C h ＝find(P i >rand(1))(4)；
wherein C is h Indicating whether the recorded state is shifted, i.e. whether the element is shifted from the normal state to the fault state;
step 335, after obtaining a certain number of system states, calculating the system state S State ；
Step 336, updating the reliability index according to formulas (5), (6) and (7), and counting the forced outage times of the monopole and the dipole;
EOT(i)＝T i (1-available Capacity during off-line ≡P) S )(7)；
Wherein EU is energy unavailability and T is time scale; TEOT is total equivalent off-time in T; EOT (i) is the ith equivalent off-time in one year; n is the total shutdown times; t (T) i Representing the ith actual fault shutdown time, and Ps represents the rated capacity of the system;
step 337, calculating a variance coefficient n, as shown in formula (8), if n is smaller than a preset constant, stopping iterative calculation, and outputting a corresponding reliability index, otherwise, repeating steps 332-334 to generate a new system state;
wherein S is State Is the system state.
2. The method for solving the reliability parameters of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system according to claim 1, wherein,
the method for constructing the equation set model of the reliability index about the reliability parameter of the element to be solved comprises the following steps:
constructing a reliability evaluation model of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system by adopting an analytic method;
acquiring reliability parameters of all elements of the HVDC transmission system;
inputting the reliability parameters of all the elements into a reliability evaluation model of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system, and calculating the reliability index of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system by adopting a state transfer sampling method in a time sequence Monte Carlo;
according to the reliability parameters of all the elements and the reliability indexes, constructing an analytical model of the reliability indexes of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system about the reliability parameters of the elements by adopting a full probability formula;
And constructing an equation set model of the reliability index about the element reliability parameter to be solved according to the analysis model of the reliability index about the element reliability parameter of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system.
3. The method for solving the component reliability parameter of the hvdc transmission system according to claim 2, wherein if the hvdc transmission system is a dual 12-pulse hvdc transmission system, the component reliability parameter includes a component failure rate and a component repair rate, the reliability index of the hvdc transmission system includes an energy unavailability rate EU, a monopole forced outage frequency MFOT and a bipolar forced outage frequency BFOT, and the analytical model of the reliability index of the hvdc transmission system with respect to the component reliability parameter is obtained by using a full probability formula according to the reliability parameters of all the components and the reliability index, which specifically includes:
the failure rate lambda of the element 1 is known by the energy unavailability EU, the number of forced single-pole stops MFOT and the number of forced double-pole stops BFOT 1 And repair rate mu 1 Unknown, failure rate lambda of element 2 2 Unknown repair rate μ of element 3 3 Unknown, since the number of elements whose parameters are unknown is 3, the combination of the states of these elements is 2 in total 3 Let X denote the unknown parameter vector [ lambda ] of elements 1,2,3 for the case =8 1 ,μ 1 ,λ 2 ,μ 3 ]The analysis model of the energy unavailability EU, the analysis model of the monopole forced outage frequency MFOT and the analysis model of the bipolar forced outage frequency BFOT are respectively:
(1) The analytical model of the energy unavailability EU is
In the above formula (9), A i 、U i (i=1, 2, 3) represents steady-state availability and steady-state unavailability, a i ＝μ i /(λ i +μ i )，U i ＝λ i /(λ i +μ i )，W j EU Expressed as:
in the above formula (10), B_EU j A set of system outage events representing the 3 elements under study in the j-th combined state; phi b Indicating the normal operating state of the system after removing the states already listed above in each case;
is phi b Is a complement of (a); c represents the per-unit value of the capacity state in the corresponding state; b is a system shutdown event; c (b) is the per-unit value of the capacity state corresponding to the system outage event; />
(2) The analytical model of the monopole forced outage times MFOT is as follows:
λ 3 is the failure rate of element 3;
μ 2 is the repair rate of element 2;
in the above formula (11), W i MFOT Expressed as:
in formula (12), B_MFOT j A set of system unipolar forced outage events representing the 3 elements under study in the j-th combined state; lambda (lambda) g Failure rate for event g; mu (mu) h The repair rate of event h;
(3) The analysis model of the bipolar forced outage frequency BFOT is as follows:
In the above formula (13), W i BFOT Expressed as:
in formula (14), B_BFOT j Representing a set of system bipolar forced outage events for the 3 elements under study in the j-th combined state.
4. A method for correcting reliability parameters of a component of a hvdc transmission system according to claim 3, wherein the equation set model of the reliability index with respect to the reliability parameters of the component to be solved is specifically:
wherein EU is 0 、MFOT 0 、BFOT 0 Respectively representing given values of the energy unavailability EU, the number of times of forced single-pole shutdown MFOT and the number of times of forced double-pole shutdown BFOT; f (f) EU (X)、f MFOT (X) and f BFOT (X) is a nonlinear equation of the energy unavailability EU, the number of times of forced outage MFOT of the monopole, and the number of times of forced outage BFOT of the dipole, respectively.
5. The method for correcting the reliability parameters of the component of the hvdc transmission system according to claim 4, wherein solving the equation set model of the reliability index with respect to the reliability parameters of the component to be solved by adopting the interval algorithm combining interval bipartite and Krawczyk-Hansen operator comprises:
step 6.1: ream [ X ]]＝[X] 0 ∈I(R n ) Initializing a partition table B and a partition table T; initializing a binary variable number b=1, a binary interval table length l=1, giving convergence precision epsilon and xi of a solution interval, and initializing an interval width coefficient alpha;
Step 6.2: h (X) and Z=X.u.H (X) are calculated from the Krawczyk-Hansen operator
Wherein X is an interval vector; h (X) is Krawczyk-Hansen operator; y is the midpoint of the interval solution X; m (X) is the midpoint of the interval vector X; i is an n-order identity matrix; y is an n-order nonsingular matrix; l (X) and U (X) are respectively interval matrix [ I-YF' (X)]Is provided with a lower triangular matrix and an upper triangular matrix,X 1 and
respectively representing the upper and lower bounds of the first component of the interval solution X; x is X n N-th component of interval solution X;
step 6.3: judging the existence and the uniqueness of the solution according to the inclusion relation of Z and X; if z=, go to step 6.6; if W (X) belongs to X, then there is a solution on X, turning to step 6.4; if W (Z) < αw (X), then x=z, go to step 6.2; otherwise, turning to step 6.5; wherein W (X) is the width of interval X, W (Z) is the width of interval Z;
step 6.4: taking m (X) as an initial value, performing iterative calculation by using a point Newton method to obtain a solution X of the equation set, and storing the solution X into a table T;
step 6.5: if W (X)<Xi, storing X into T, and turning to step 6.6; component X of interval vector X b Bisecting to obtain
Will [ Xb, m (X) b )]Store interval table B, let->
Binary sequence number b=b+1, go to step 6.2;
step 6.6: if l=0, go to step 6.7; taking out the section arranged at the head from the section table B, giving X, l=l-1, and turning to the step 6.2;
Step 6.7: outputting all solution intervals in the table T; if T is an empty set, then the system of equations has no solution.
6. The device for solving the reliability parameter of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system element is characterized by comprising the following components:
the acquisition unit is used for acquiring reliability parameters of elements to be solved of the HVDC transmission system;
the first input unit is used for inputting the reliability parameters of the element to be required into a reliability evaluation model of a preset high-voltage direct-current transmission system, and calculating the reliability index of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system by adopting a state transition sampling method in a time sequence Monte Carlo; the reliability evaluation model of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system is constructed by adopting an analytic method;
the second input unit is used for inputting the reliability index into an equation set model of the reliability index about the reliability parameter of the element to be solved;
the solving unit is used for solving an equation set model of the reliability index relative to the reliability parameter of the element to be solved by adopting an interval algorithm combining interval bisection and a Krawczyk-Hansen operator;
if the hvdc transmission system is a dual 12-pulse hvdc transmission system, the element reliability parameters include an element failure rate and an element repair rate, and the reliability indexes of the hvdc transmission system include an energy unavailability rate EU, a monopole forced outage frequency MFOT and a bipolar forced outage frequency BFOT, the calculating the reliability indexes of the hvdc transmission system by using a state transition sampling method in a time sequence monte carlo specifically includes:
Step 331, assuming that the element state duration is subjected to exponential distribution, and the element is all normal at the initial moment;
step 332, calculating the system state duration T according to equation (1) k In the formula (1), m is the total number of outward transition cases of the current state, and U is [0,1]Random number between τ i State transition rate for element i:
step 333, τ j For the state transition rate of element j, the state transition probability P of element j is calculated according to the following equation (2) j And obtaining the cumulative transition probability P of the element according to the formula (3) i ：
Step 334, performing element state transition positioning according to equation (4), if C h Element state transition occurs, otherwise element state remains unchanged, =1;
C h ＝find(P i >rand(1))(4)；
wherein C is h Indicating whether the recorded state is shifted, i.e. whether the element is shifted from the normal state to the fault state;
step 335, after obtaining a certain number of system states, calculating the system state S State ；
Step 336, updating the reliability index according to formulas (5), (6) and (7), and counting the forced outage times of the monopole and the dipole;
EOT(i)＝T i (1-available Capacity during off-line ≡P) S )(7)；
Wherein EU is energy unavailability and T is time scale; TEOT is total equivalent off-time in T; EOT (i) is the ith equivalent off-time in one yearThe method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the N is the total shutdown times; t (T) i Representing the ith actual fault shutdown time, and Ps represents the rated capacity of the system;
step 337, calculating a variance coefficient n, as shown in formula (8), if n is smaller than a preset constant, stopping iterative calculation, and outputting a corresponding reliability index, otherwise, repeating steps 332-334 to generate a new system state;
wherein S is State Is the system state.
7. The device for solving the reliability parameter of the component of the hvdc transmission system according to claim 6, wherein the method for constructing the model of the equation set of the reliability index with respect to the reliability parameter of the component to be solved comprises:
constructing a reliability evaluation model of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system by adopting an analytic method;
acquiring reliability parameters of all elements of the HVDC transmission system;
inputting the reliability parameters of all the elements into a reliability evaluation model of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system, and calculating the reliability index of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system by adopting a state transfer sampling method in a time sequence Monte Carlo;
according to the reliability parameters of all the elements and the reliability indexes, constructing an analytical model of the reliability indexes of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system about the reliability parameters of the elements by adopting a full probability formula;
And constructing an equation set model of the reliability index about the element reliability parameter to be solved according to the analysis model of the reliability index about the element reliability parameter of the high-voltage direct-current transmission system.
8. A hvdc transmission system element reliability parameter solving device comprising a processor, a memory and a computer program stored in the memory and configured to be executed by the processor, the processor implementing the hvdc transmission system element reliability parameter solving method according to any of claims 1 to 5 when executing the computer program.
9. A computer readable storage medium, characterized in that the computer readable storage medium comprises a stored computer program, wherein the computer program when run controls a device in which the computer readable storage medium is located to perform the method for solving the reliability parameters of the hvdc transmission system element according to any one of claims 1 to 5.
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