CN113011749A - Urban public safety assessment method based on risks and abilities - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a risk and capability-based urban public safety assessment method, which comprises four stages of existing risk assessment, residual risk assessment, emergency capability assessment and urban public safety assessment, considers the inhibition effect of capability on risk and the comprehensive influence effect of capability and risk on urban public safety, screens major risk event scenes through the existing risk assessment, evaluates residual risk in combination with prevention and control capability, analyzes scene task assessment emergency capability, and comprehensively assesses urban public safety level based on the staggered influence of risk and capability. The embodiment effectively integrates different management angles and different evaluation perspectives of urban public safety, embodies the inhibition effect of the capability on the risk and the comprehensive influence effect of the risk and the capability on the urban public safety, and can realize the system analysis and the comprehensive evaluation on the urban public safety.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of urban public safety assessment, in particular to an urban public safety assessment method based on risks and abilities.
Background
With the continuous advance of urbanization, more and more people will live in urban areas, and managing urban areas has become one of the most important development challenges in the 21 st century. With the gradual expansion of the interaction range and the deepening of the interaction degree of the human society and the nature, the barriers between the traditional natural disasters, technical disasters, social security and public health fields in the public security field are being broken, and the concept of 'great safety' of all kinds of disasters, all processes and all directions is gradually established. Under the background, the urban public safety degree is comprehensively and comprehensively evaluated, and the method is particularly important for improving the urban safety toughness and promoting the urban sustainable development.
The urban public safety assessment field mainly takes risks, fragility, capability and toughness as objects, and assesses threats faced by urban public safety and capabilities required by urban public safety from different angles, thereby forming abundant research results. But the research results of providing a comprehensive system analysis idea of 'full disaster species, full process and all around' are less at present; the comprehensive evaluation method based on the index system is usually established on an analytic hierarchy process, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and a weighted calculation method, is simple and easy to implement, but cannot deeply consider the evolution mechanism of disaster risks, so that major disaster risks are easily ignored; in the prior art, the disaster link effect is considered, a mathematical model is established to evaluate urban disaster risks, but the cities have many involved disaster types and large number of dangerous sources, and cannot be well popularized and applied in practice due to difficult data collection.
The invention discloses a comprehensive urban community social public security risk assessment method (CN 111798112A). according to the method, an assessment area space is subjected to discretization processing and an information set is established, social security events and secondary accident risks are assessed from three dimensions of possibility, severity and coupling, but the scheme of the method is lack of consideration and analysis on various disasters such as urban natural disasters, accident disasters and the like, and also lack of the embodiment of attenuation and inhibition effects of urban emergency capacity and prevention and control capacity on urban risks, and the urban public security degree is difficult to be assessed comprehensively.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention discloses a risk and capability-based urban public safety assessment method, which is divided into four stages of existing risk assessment, residual risk assessment, emergency capability assessment and urban public safety assessment, and comprehensively assesses urban public safety level, wherein the method specifically comprises the following steps:
selecting key risk events of urban areas and carrying out risk identification;
aiming at various key risk events, constructing an existing risk assessment index system;
performing existing risk assessment aiming at various key risk events to obtain the grades of the existing risks;
determining the grade of each existing risk according to the grade value of the existing risk, and screening out major risk events according to the grade of the existing risk;
aiming at major risk events, a residual risk assessment index system is constructed by combining the existing risk and prevention and control capacity;
performing residual risk assessment on various major risk events to obtain residual risk grade values of the major risk events, and determining the residual risk grade of the major risk events according to the residual risk grade values;
analyzing scene tasks aiming at major risk events, and constructing an emergency capacity evaluation index system;
aiming at various major risk events, carrying out emergency capacity evaluation to obtain the emergency capacity grade value of each major risk event, and determining the emergency capacity grade of each major risk event according to the emergency capacity grade value;
and (4) integrating the residual risk level and the emergency capacity level of various major risk events to perform urban public safety comprehensive evaluation to obtain the urban public safety level.
According to the scheme of the invention, the existing risk of each risk event is taken as a first-level index, the risk and the vulnerability of each risk event are taken as second-level indexes, and the characterization factors of each second-level index are taken as third-level indexes in the existing risk assessment index system to form a third-level assessment index system.
The scheme of the invention is further improved, in the residual risk assessment index system, the residual risk of each risk event is taken as a first-level index, the risk, the vulnerability, the source control capability and the risk prevention capability of each risk event are taken as second-level indexes, and then the characterization factors of each second-level index are taken as third-level indexes to form a third-level assessment index system.
According to the scheme of the invention, the emergency capacity of each risk event in the emergency capacity evaluation index system is taken as a first-level index, the preparation capacity, the response capacity, the coping capacity and the recovery capacity of each risk event are taken as second-level indexes, and then the characterization factors of each second-level index are taken as third-level indexes to form a third-level evaluation index system.
The scheme of the invention is further improved, when the levels of the existing risk, the residual risk and the emergency capacity are determined, the relative importance of the three-level indexes is determined by using an expert scoring method, and the weighted value of the three-level indexes is determined by using an analytic hierarchy process; and grading the three-level indexes according to a preset scale according to historical statistical data, and performing weighted calculation to obtain the second-level index scores of various risk events.
In the further improvement of the scheme of the invention, in the obtaining of the grade scores of the existing risks, the grade score of each risk event is obtained through the existing risk assessment model respectively,
the existing risk assessment model is as follows:
wherein: riRepresents an existing risk level score; hiRepresents a risk level score; viRepresents a vulnerability grade score;
is the coupling coefficient; are all dimensionless parameters.
In the further improvement of the scheme of the invention, in the obtaining of the residual risk grade scores, the residual risk grade scores of the major risk events are obtained through a risk event residual risk evaluation model, and the residual risk evaluation model of the risk events is as follows:
wherein: rriA residual risk score representing a risk event; hiRepresents a risk score; viRepresents a vulnerability score; ciThe standardized value represents the source management and control capability; piA normalized score representing a risk prevention capability;
is the coupling coefficient; are all dimensionless parameters.
For further improvement of the scheme of the invention, the calculation modes of the standardized value of the source control ability and the standardized value of the risk prevention ability are respectively as follows:
in the formula, Ci’Governing the capability level score, P, for the sourcei’And (4) managing and controlling the capability grade score for the source.
In a further improvement of the scheme of the present invention, in the step of obtaining the emergency capacity grade scores of the major risk events by performing the emergency capacity evaluation, each emergency capacity grade score is obtained by using a risk event emergency capacity evaluation model, and the risk event emergency capacity evaluation model is:
wherein: criRepresenting emergency capacity rating score；WajReplacing subjective weight values obtained by a surface analytic method; wbjRepresenting an objective weight value obtained by an entropy weight method; wcjRepresenting a second-level index relation weight value; alpha, beta and gamma represent the combination proportion of each weighted value, 0 is more than alpha, beta, gamma is less than 1, and alpha + beta + gamma is 1; cpjThe grade values represent the preparation capacity, the response capacity, the coping capacity and the recovery capacity, and m represents the number of secondary indexes in an emergency capacity evaluation index system; are all dimensionless parameters.
The scheme of the invention is further improved, the residual risk level and the emergency capacity level of various major risk events are integrated, the urban public safety is comprehensively evaluated, and the urban public safety level is obtained, which specifically comprises the following steps:
calculating the ratio of the emergency capacity grade to the residual risk grade in each major risk event;
obtaining an urban public safety assessment score by combining the ratio and an urban public safety comprehensive assessment model, wherein the urban public safety comprehensive assessment model comprises the following steps:
wherein: s represents the public safety assessment value of the city; rriA residual risk level score representing the ith significant risk event; criAn emergency ability rating score representing the ith major risk event; n is the number of screened major risk events; are all dimensionless parameters;
and obtaining the overall public safety level of the city according to the public safety assessment value of the city.
The existing risk level evaluation standard is classified into 5 levels, the residual risk level evaluation standard is classified into 5 levels, the emergency capacity level evaluation standard is classified into 5 levels, and the urban public safety level evaluation standard is classified into 5 levels.
Compared with the prior art, the method provided by the invention considers the inhibition effect of the capacity on the risk and the comprehensive influence effect of the capacity and the risk on the urban public safety, screens the major risk event situation through the existing risk assessment, analyzes the situation task, and reveals the cause and effect rule of the existing risk size and the emergency capacity requirement of the city; the existing risk is combined with prevention and control capacity to carry out residual risk assessment, and the inhibition effect of the capacity on the risk is reflected; the urban public safety evaluation is carried out by combining the residual risk and the emergency capacity, so that the comprehensive influence of the risk and the capacity on the urban public safety is reflected; and a logical relation of risk and capability staggered influence is established, and the overall public security level of the city is comprehensively evaluated.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a logical relationship diagram of the impact of risk on capacity;
FIG. 2 is a flow diagram of a risk and capability based urban public safety assessment framework;
FIG. 3 is a diagram of an existing risk assessment index system;
FIG. 4 is a chart of a residual risk assessment index hierarchy;
FIG. 5 is a diagram of an emergency capacity assessment indicator architecture.
Detailed Description
The following further describes the practice of the present invention with reference to the drawings, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto.
The method adopts the basic idea of 'comprehensive screening, key analysis and comprehensive evaluation', divides urban public safety evaluation into four stages of existing risk evaluation, residual risk evaluation, emergency capacity evaluation and urban public safety evaluation, comprehensively considers the inhibition relationship of capacity to risk and the comprehensive influence relationship of capacity and risk to urban public safety, and comprehensively evaluates the urban public safety level.
FIG. 1 is a diagram of logical relationship between risks and capacities, where the risks include existing risks, the capacities include emergency capacity and prevention and control capacity, the emergency capacity tasks of the risk events are analyzed through the existing risk elements of the risk events, the prevention and control capacity of the risk events has an inhibiting effect on the existing risks, the two are combined to obtain residual risks of the risk events, the residual risks of the risk events are combined with the emergency capacity, and the urban public safety level is obtained comprehensively; fig. 2 is a framework diagram of urban public safety assessment based on "risk-ability", and as shown in fig. 2, the urban public safety assessment method based on risk and ability provided by the present invention includes the following steps:
step 1: and selecting key risk events of the urban area, and carrying out risk identification.
In one embodiment of the invention, a city area is selected as an evaluation object, and the key risk event of the area is determined based on the natural geographic condition, the industrial characteristics, the public safety event statistical data and the relevant government and enterprise safety production and emergency management data of the area. The key risk events determined in this embodiment include: typhoon disasters, earthquake disasters, geological disasters, flood disasters, dangerous chemical road transportation accidents, operational dense place accidents, functional dense place accidents and town gas pipeline accidents, which are 8 types.
Step 2: and aiming at various key risk events, constructing an existing risk assessment index system.
In one embodiment of the invention, according to literature data and actual conditions of a selected area, aiming at 8 types of key risk events of typhoon disasters, earthquake disasters, geological disasters, flood disasters, dangerous chemical road transportation accidents, managerial personnel intensive site accidents, functional personnel intensive site accidents and town gas pipeline accidents, an existing risk assessment three-level index system is constructed from 2 aspects of dangerousness and fragility, as shown in fig. 3, typhoon disaster risk indexes comprise average daily maximum wind speed, average daily maximum rainfall and typhoon login frequency, and fragility indexes comprise influenced population proportion, crisis proportion and industrial and commercial area proportion; the earthquake disaster risk indexes comprise flat earthquake intensity, and the vulnerability indexes comprise the proportion of affected population, the proportion of dangerous houses and the proportion of industrial and commercial areas; the geological disaster risk indexes comprise flat geological disaster point density, geological disaster point average scale and geological environment complexity, and the vulnerability indexes comprise affected population proportion, dangerous house proportion and industrial and commercial area proportion; the flood disaster risk indexes comprise an average submerging range, an average submerging depth and a rainstorm day number, and the vulnerability indexes comprise an affected population proportion, a critical house proportion and an industrial and commercial area proportion; the dangerous chemical road transportation accident risk indexes comprise the number of dangerous transport vehicles, the disqualification rate of vehicles and drivers and the occupation ratio of the dangerous transport vehicles passing through a road section where accidents are prone to happening and are more frequent, and the vulnerability indexes comprise the proportion of affected population, the density of houses and the occupation ratio of industrial and commercial areas; accident risk indexes of the operating intensive personnel places comprise building risk, historical accident frequency and supporting facility risk, and vulnerability indexes comprise personnel density, intensive personnel places density and industrial and commercial area occupation ratio; the accident risk indexes of the functional personnel intensive places comprise building risk, historical accident frequency and supporting facility risk, and the vulnerability indexes comprise personnel density, personnel intensive place density and industrial and commercial area proportion; the risk indexes of the town gas pipeline accidents comprise town gas pipeline density and dangerous pipeline density, and the vulnerability indexes comprise affected population proportion, house proportion and industrial and commercial area proportion.
And step 3: and performing existing risk assessment aiming at various key risk events to obtain the grades of the existing risks.
In one embodiment of the invention, an analytic hierarchy process is used in the step, an expert is invited to score the importance of the three-level risk index of the 8 types of risk events, a scale is made from 1 to 9, the larger the number is, the larger the importance is, a risk and vulnerability judgment matrix is constructed, the consistency of the matrix is judged, and the weight value of the three-level risk index of the 8 types of risk events is obtained through calculation, wherein W is(1)、W(2)、W(3)The weight values of the three-level indexes in sequence under each second-level index in the existing risk assessment index system are shown in table 2.
TABLE 2 weight table of the present risk level three indexes of various risk events
Dividing each three-level index score into five grades, scaling with 1-5, wherein the larger the number is, the larger the representative risk and vulnerability is, obtaining the three-level index score according to the actual data of the evaluation area and the judgment of experts, and addingCalculating the right to obtain a grade score of a secondary index; by means of an existing risk assessment model
Substituting the grade values of the secondary indexes, selecting a coupling coefficient according to historical data, and calculating the existing risk grade values of 8 types of risk events, wherein R isiRepresents an existing risk level score; hiRepresents a risk level score; viRepresents a vulnerability grade score;
is coupling coefficient and has a value range of [1, 1.5%]Determining according to historical statistical data; are all dimensionless parameters. The calculation results are shown in table 3.
TABLE 3 class-grade value table for the first, second and third levels of risk of various risk events
And 4, step 4: and determining the grade of each existing risk according to the grade value of the existing risk, and screening out major risk events according to the grade of the existing risk.
In one embodiment of the present invention, the present step performs the existing risk level evaluation based on the existing risk level evaluation criteria according to the existing risk level score calculation result, and the evaluation result is shown in table 4.
In one embodiment of the present invention, the evaluation criteria of the existing risk level is that the existing risk level is provided with five levels, such as by using one level, two levels, three levels, four levels and five levels, and it is understood that the five levels are only represented in a specific form and are not limited to the above manner, such as low, medium, high and high levels in other embodiments. It will also be appreciated that in other embodiments, other numbers of risk levels may be provided.
And setting the current risk grade scores corresponding to the grades. In this embodiment, the existing risks having the existing risk level scores within 5 ranges of (0, 5.2], (5.2, 10.4], (10.4, 16.8], (16.8, 25], (25, 37.5 ]) are respectively evaluated as first-order, second-order, third-order, fourth-order, and fifth-order.
TABLE 4 evaluation chart of the existing risk level of various risk events
Determining major risk events according to risk levels, in this embodiment, defining risk events of the fourth level and the fifth level of the existing risk levels as major risk events, and screening 3 types of risk events of typhoon disasters, geological disasters and town gas pipeline accidents as major risk events.
And 5: and aiming at the major risk event, combining the existing risk and prevention and control capacity to construct a residual risk assessment index system.
In this embodiment, a residual risk assessment index system is constructed from 4 aspects of risk, vulnerability, source management and control capability, and risk prevention capability by combining the existing risk and prevention and control capability for 3 types of major risk events of typhoon disasters, geological disasters, and town gas pipeline accidents, as shown in fig. 4. The typhoon disaster risk indexes comprise average daily maximum wind speed, average daily maximum rainfall and typhoon login frequency, the vulnerability indexes comprise affected population proportion, dangerous house proportion and business area proportion, the source management and control capability indexes comprise disaster prevention and reduction planning perfection, disaster reduction plan coverage rate and safety full-time personnel allocation rate, and the risk prevention capability indexes comprise propaganda and education coverage rate and million-people city construction expenditure; the geological disaster risk indexes comprise flat geological disaster point density, geological disaster point average scale and geological environment complexity, the vulnerability indexes comprise affected population proportion, dangerous house proportion and business area proportion, the source management and control capability indexes comprise disaster prevention and reduction planning perfection, disaster reduction plan coverage rate and safety full-time personnel allocation rate, and the risk prevention capability indexes comprise propaganda and education coverage rate and million-people city construction expenditure; the risk indexes of the town gas pipeline accidents comprise town gas pipeline density and dangerous pipeline density, the vulnerability indexes comprise affected population proportion, house proportion and ratio of industrial and commercial areas, the source management and control capacity indexes comprise disaster prevention and reduction planning perfection, disaster reduction plan coverage rate and safety full-time personnel allocation rate, and the risk prevention capacity indexes comprise propaganda and education coverage rate, safety production training qualification rate and million-people city construction expenditure.
Step 6: and aiming at various major risk events, performing residual risk assessment to obtain residual risk grade scores of the major risk events, and determining the residual risk grade of the major risk events according to the residual risk grade scores.
In one embodiment of the invention, an analytic hierarchy process is used in the step, experts are invited to score the importance of the three-level indexes of the residual risk of the 3 types of major risk events, scaling is performed from 1 to 9, the larger the number is, the larger the importance is, a judgment matrix of the risk, the vulnerability, the source management and control capability and the risk prevention capability is constructed, the consistency of the matrix is judged, and the weighted value of the three-level indexes of the residual risk of the 3 types of major risk events is obtained through calculation, wherein W is(1)、W(2)、W(3)For the residual risk assessment index system, the weight values of the three-level indexes in sequence under each two-level index are as shown in table 5:
TABLE 5 weight table of three-level index for residual risk of various risk events
Dividing each three-level index grade value into five grades, scaling by 1-5, wherein the larger the number is, the larger the representative risk, vulnerability, source control capability and risk prevention capability are, obtaining the three-level index grade value according to the actual data of the evaluation area and the judgment of experts, and obtaining the second-level index grade value through weighting calculationAnd passing the value of the source control ability and the value of the risk prevention ability grade through a standardized value formula
And
carrying out standardized calculation to obtain standardized scores of source management and control capability and risk prevention capability; by residual risk assessment model
Substituting the secondary index grade value, selecting a coupling coefficient according to historical data (the more times of causing other types of disasters when the risk event occurs are counted through the historical data, the larger the coupling coefficient is set), and calculating the residual risk grade value of the 3 types of risk events. In the formula, RriA residual risk score representing a risk event; hiRepresents a risk score; viRepresents a vulnerability score; ciThe standardized value representing the source control ability is expressed by a standardized value formula
Is calculated to obtain wherein Ci’Managing and controlling the capacity grade value for the source; piNormalized score representing risk prevention capability is expressed by a normalized score formula
Is calculated to obtain, wherein Pi’Managing and controlling the capacity grade value for the source;
is coupling coefficient and has a value range of [1, 1.5%]Determining according to historical statistical data; are all dimensionless parameters. The calculation results are shown in table 6.
TABLE 6 grade value table for residual risk of various risk events
And according to the calculation result of the residual risk grade, performing residual risk grade evaluation based on the residual risk grade evaluation standard, wherein the evaluation result is shown in table 7.
Wherein the evaluation standard of the residual risk grade is as follows: the residual risk level is provided with five levels, as can be represented by using one, two, three, four and five levels, it being understood that the five levels are characterized here only in a concrete form and are not limited to the above, as low, lower, medium, higher and high may be used in other embodiments. It will also be appreciated that in other embodiments, other numbers of risk levels may be provided.
Setting the residual risk grade corresponding to each grade. In this embodiment, the risks having the residual risk level scores in the 5 ranges of (0, 2.2], (2.2, 5.2], (5.2, 9.4], (9.4, 16.6] and (16.6, 37.5] are evaluated as first, second, third, fourth and fifth levels, respectively.
TABLE 7 evaluation chart for residual risk level of various risk events
| First order index | B1 | B3 | B8 |
| Residual riskRank score | 9.58 | 24.62 | 11.43 |
| Residual risk rating | Four stages | Five stages | Four stages |
And 7: aiming at 3 types of major risk events of typhoon disasters, geological disasters and town gas pipeline accidents, emergency capacity tasks under different major risk event hazard situations are analyzed (from the perspective of the emergency capacity tasks under different major risk event hazard situations, evaluation indexes are considered, an emergency capacity index system of each major risk event is built), and an emergency capacity evaluation index system is built from 4 aspects of preparation capacity, response capacity, coping capacity and recovery capacity, as shown in fig. 5. The typhoon disaster preparation capacity indexes comprise the emergency mechanism completeness, the emergency plan completeness and the monitoring and early warning coverage rate, the response capacity indexes comprise the average time of the comprehensive rescue force reaching the site, the average time of the public security and traffic control force reaching the site and the personnel evacuation capacity, the coping capacity indexes comprise the number of rescue personnel in ten thousand, the number of beds of ten thousand hospitals and the area of a per-capita refuge site, and the recovery capacity indexes comprise the disaster insurance plan coverage rate, the unemployment insurance participation rate and the basic medical insurance participation rate; the geological disaster preparation capacity indexes comprise the emergency mechanism completeness, the emergency plan completeness and the monitoring and early warning coverage rate, the response capacity indexes comprise the average time of the comprehensive rescue force reaching the site, the average time of the professional rescue force reaching the site and the personnel evacuation capacity, the coping capacity indexes comprise the number of the rescue personnel in ten thousand, the hospital bed number in ten thousand and the area of the per-person refuge site, and the recovery capacity indexes comprise the disaster insurance plan coverage rate, the unemployment insurance participation rate and the basic medical insurance participation rate; the preparation capability indexes of the urban gas pipeline accidents comprise emergency mechanism completeness, emergency plan completeness and equipment material completeness, the response capability indexes comprise the average time of professional rescue force reaching the site, the average time of public security and traffic control force reaching the site and personnel evacuation capability, the coping capability indexes comprise the number of rescue personnel outfitted by ten thousand persons, the number of police outfitted by ten thousand persons and the number of beds of ten thousand persons in hospital, and the recovery capability indexes comprise disaster insurance plan coverage rate, unemployment insurance participation rate and basic medical insurance participation rate.
And 8: and aiming at various major risk events, carrying out emergency capacity evaluation to obtain the emergency capacity grade value of each major risk event, and determining the emergency capacity grade of each major risk event according to the emergency capacity grade value.
In one embodiment of the invention, in the step, an analytic hierarchy process is used, an expert is invited to score the importance of the three-level indexes of the emergency capacity of 3 types of major risk events, the degree is scaled from 1 to 9, the larger the number is, the larger the importance is, a judgment matrix of the preparation capacity, the response capacity, the coping capacity and the recovery capacity is constructed, the consistency of the matrix is judged, and the weighted value of the three-level indexes of the emergency capacity of the 3 types of major risk events is calculated, wherein W is(1)、W(2)、W(3)In the emergency capacity evaluation index system, the weight values of the three-level indexes in sequence under each two-level index are as shown in table 8:
TABLE 8 Tertiary index weight table for emergency ability of various risk events
Calculating a second-level indicator subjective weight value W using an analytic hierarchy processBCalculating objective weight value W of secondary index by entropy weight methodbCalculating a second-level index relation weight value W by adopting a DEMBTEL methodcThe combination of the three is taken
Calculating to obtain the final combined weight value WzSecond level indexThe weight values are shown in table 9.
TABLE 9 Emergency capacity two-stage index combination weight table for various major risk events
Dividing each three-level index grade value into five grades, scaling by 1-5, wherein the larger the number is, the larger the preparation capacity, response capacity, coping capacity and recovery capacity is represented, obtaining the three-level index grade value according to actual data of an evaluation area and expert judgment, and obtaining a second-level index grade value through weighted calculation; evaluation of models by Emergency capabilities
Substituting the grade scores of the second grade indexes into the grade scores, and calculating the grade scores of the emergency capacity of the 3 types of risk events according to the combined weight of the table 9, wherein C is the formulariA representative emergency capacity rating score; wajReplacing subjective weight values obtained by a surface analytic method; wbRepresenting an objective weight value obtained by an entropy weight method; wcjRepresenting a second-level index relation weight value; alpha, beta and gamma represent the combination proportion of each weighted value, 0 is more than alpha, beta, gamma is less than 1, and alpha + beta + gamma is 1; cpjRepresenting the grade scores of the preparation capacity, the response capacity, the coping capacity and the recovery capacity, wherein m represents the number of secondary indexes in an emergency capacity evaluation index system, and m is 4; are all dimensionless parameters.
The calculation results are shown in table 10:
TABLE 10 first, second, and third grade index grading value tables for various risk events
And according to the calculation result of the emergency capacity grade, performing emergency capacity grade evaluation based on the emergency capacity grade evaluation standard, wherein the evaluation result is shown in table 11.
Wherein, the evaluation standard of the emergency capacity grade is as follows: the emergency capacity level is provided with five levels, such as represented by one, two, three, four and five levels, it being understood that the five levels are characterized in a specific manner only, and are not limited to the above, such as low, medium, high and high in other embodiments. It will also be appreciated that in other embodiments, other numbers of risk levels may be provided.
And setting the corresponding emergency capacity grade scores of all the grades. In this embodiment, the risks of 5 ranges of the emergency ability grade scores [1, 1.8], (1.8, 2.6], (2.6, 3.4], (3.4, 4.2] and (4.2, 5] are respectively evaluated as first-level, second-level, third-level, fourth-level and fifth-level.
TABLE 11 Emergency capacity rating evaluation chart for various risk events
| First order index | C1 | C3 | C8 |
| Emergency capacity rating score | 3.51 | 3.27 | 2.92 |
| Level of emergency capacity | Four stages | Three-stage | Three-stage |
And step 9: and (4) integrating the residual risk level and the emergency capacity level of various major risk events to perform urban public safety comprehensive evaluation to obtain the urban public safety level.
In one embodiment of the invention, in the step, the differences between the residual risk level and the emergency capacity level of the typhoon disaster, the geological disaster and the town gas pipeline accident are respectively compared, the ratio of the residual risk level and the emergency capacity level of the 3 types of major risk events is calculated, the urban public safety comprehensive evaluation score is calculated by using an urban public safety comprehensive evaluation model, the urban overall public safety level is evaluated according to the urban safety comprehensive evaluation score and the urban public safety level evaluation standard, and the calculation and evaluation results are shown in table 12.
The urban public safety comprehensive evaluation model comprises the following steps:
wherein S represents the urban public safety assessment score; rriA residual risk level score representing the ith significant risk event; criAn emergency ability rating score representing the ith major risk event; n is the number of screened major risk events; are all dimensionless parameters.
The evaluation standard of the urban public safety level is as follows: the city public safety level is provided with five levels, such as represented by using one level, two levels, three levels, four levels and five levels, and it is understood that the five levels are only represented in a specific form and are not limited to the above manner, and low, lower, medium, higher and high levels can be used in other embodiments. It will also be appreciated that in other embodiments, other numbers of risk levels may be provided.
And setting the public safety grade values of the cities corresponding to all levels. In this embodiment, the risks of the city public safety level scores within 5 ranges of (0, 0.7], (0.7, 1.3], (1.3, 2], (2, 3], and (3, 5) are evaluated as first, second, third, fourth, and fifth levels, respectively.
TABLE 12 comprehensive calculation and evaluation table for urban public safety
As can be seen from table 12, according to the comprehensive evaluation result of the urban public safety, the public safety level of the exemplary city is two levels, which is at a lower safety level.
TABLE 1 evaluation grade Standard of urban public safety System
In conclusion, the embodiment effectively fuses different management angles and different evaluation perspectives of urban public safety, embodies the inhibition effect of the capability on the risk and the comprehensive influence effect of the risk and the capability on the urban public safety, can realize the system analysis and the comprehensive evaluation on the urban public safety, and is expected to provide reference for the comprehensive urban public safety evaluation practice.
It should be noted that, the sequence numbers before the steps are only for convenience of description, and do not limit the sequence of the steps.
It should be understood that the above-described embodiments of the present invention are merely examples for clearly illustrating the present invention, and are not intended to limit the embodiments of the present invention. Other variations and modifications will be apparent to persons skilled in the art in light of the above description. And are neither required nor exhaustive of all embodiments. Any modification, equivalent replacement, and improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A city public safety assessment method based on risk and capability is characterized by comprising the following steps:
selecting key risk events of urban areas and carrying out risk identification;
aiming at various key risk events, constructing an existing risk assessment index system;
performing existing risk assessment aiming at various key risk events to obtain the grades of the existing risks;
determining the grade of each existing risk according to the grade value of the existing risk, and screening out major risk events according to the grade of the existing risk;
aiming at major risk events, a residual risk assessment index system is constructed by combining the existing risk and prevention and control capacity;
performing residual risk assessment on various major risk events to obtain residual risk grade values of the major risk events, and determining the residual risk grade of the major risk events according to the residual risk grade values;
analyzing scene tasks aiming at major risk events, and constructing an emergency capacity evaluation index system;
aiming at various major risk events, carrying out emergency capacity evaluation to obtain the emergency capacity grade value of each major risk event, and determining the emergency capacity grade of each major risk event according to the emergency capacity grade value;
and (4) integrating the residual risk level and the emergency capacity level of various major risk events to perform urban public safety comprehensive evaluation to obtain the urban public safety level.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein in the existing risk assessment index system, the existing risk of each risk event is used as a primary index, the risk and the vulnerability of each risk event are used as secondary indexes, and then the characterization factors of each secondary index are used as tertiary indexes to form a tertiary assessment index system.
3. The method according to claim 1, wherein in the residual risk assessment index system, the residual risk of each risk event is used as a primary index, the risk, the vulnerability, the source control capability and the risk prevention capability of each risk event are used as secondary indexes, and then the characterization factors of each secondary index are used as tertiary indexes to form a tertiary assessment index system.
4. The method according to claim 1, wherein in the emergency capacity evaluation index system, the emergency capacity of each risk event is a primary index, the preparation capacity, the response capacity, the coping capacity and the recovery capacity of each risk event are secondary indexes, and then the characterization factors of each secondary index are tertiary indexes to form a tertiary evaluation index system.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein in determining the levels of the existing risk, the residual risk and the emergency capacity, the relative importance of the three-level indicators is determined by using an expert scoring method, and the weighted value of the three-level indicators is determined by using an analytic hierarchy process; and grading the three-level indexes according to a preset scale according to historical statistical data, and performing weighted calculation to obtain the second-level index scores of various risk events.
6. The method according to claim 1, wherein in the obtaining of the risk and capability-based urban public safety assessment, the grade score of each risk event is obtained through an existing risk assessment model, and the existing risk assessment model is as follows:
wherein: riRepresents an existing risk level score; hiRepresents a risk level score; viRepresents a vulnerability grade score;
is the coupling coefficient; are all dimensionless parameters.
7. The method according to claim 1, wherein in the obtaining of the residual risk level scores, the residual risk level scores of the major risk events are obtained through a risk event residual risk evaluation model, and the residual risk evaluation model of the risk events is as follows:
wherein: rriA residual risk score representing a risk event; hiRepresents a risk score; viRepresents a vulnerability score; ciThe standardized value represents the source management and control capability; piA normalized score representing a risk prevention capability;
is the coupling coefficient; are all dimensionless parameters.
8. The method according to claim 7, wherein the standardized value of the source control ability and the standardized value of the risk prevention ability are calculated as follows:
in the formula, Ci' governing the capability level score, P, for the Sourcei' governing the capability level score for the source.
9. The method according to claim 1, wherein in the emergency capacity assessment to obtain the emergency capacity grade scores of the major risk events, the emergency capacity grade scores are obtained by a risk event emergency capacity assessment model, and the risk event emergency capacity assessment model is:
wherein: criA representative emergency capacity rating score; wajReplacing subjective weight values obtained by a surface analytic method; wbjRepresenting an objective weight value obtained by an entropy weight method; wcjRepresenting a second-level index relation weight value; alpha, beta, gamma represent the combined ratio of the respective weight values, 0<α,β,γ<1，α+β+γ＝1；CpjThe grade values represent the preparation capacity, the response capacity, the coping capacity and the recovery capacity, and m represents the number of secondary indexes in an emergency capacity evaluation index system; are all dimensionless parameters.
10. The method for urban public safety assessment based on risk and capability according to any one of claims 1 to 9, wherein the method for urban public safety comprehensive assessment by integrating the residual risk level and the emergency capability level of each type of major risk event to obtain the urban public safety level specifically comprises:
calculating the ratio of the emergency capacity grade to the residual risk grade in each major risk event;
obtaining an urban public safety assessment score by combining the ratio and an urban public safety comprehensive assessment model, wherein the urban public safety comprehensive assessment model comprises the following steps:
wherein: s represents the public safety assessment value of the city; rriA residual risk level score representing the ith significant risk event; criAn emergency ability rating score representing the ith major risk event; n is the number of screened major risk events; are all dimensionless parameters;
and obtaining the overall public safety level of the city according to the public safety assessment value of the city.
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