CN113011645A - Power grid strong wind disaster early warning method and device based on deep learning - Google Patents
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Abstract
一种基于深度学习的电网大风灾害预警方法及装置,采集雷达数据作输入数据,输入至预先训练好的风速预测模型中并输出风速信息;该风速信息作为预先训练好的风灾预警模型的输入要素;风灾预警模型结合同时期自动气象观测站数据,对风速信息进行修正,输出排除了由于微地形信息产生的误差后的风速修订信息,据此对大风灾害进行分级预警,实时提供分等级的大风位置预警,解决了电网风害精细化预报难题,其中强对流大风形成1km×1km空间分辨率,0‑120分钟预报结果;形成业务运行软件系统,进一步提高大风灾害预警预报精度,提升了电网及设备防灾减灾的针对性、应急抢险效率,提高了电网安全运行水平和社会用电可靠性。
A method and device for early warning of power grid wind disaster based on deep learning, collecting radar data as input data, inputting it into a pre-trained wind speed prediction model, and outputting wind speed information; the wind speed information is used as the input element of the pre-trained wind disaster early warning model The wind disaster early warning model combines the data of the automatic meteorological observation station in the same period to correct the wind speed information, and outputs the wind speed revision information after excluding the errors caused by the micro-topographic information. Location warning solves the problem of fine-grained forecasting of wind damage in the power grid. Strong convective winds form a spatial resolution of 1km × 1km and forecast results in 0-120 minutes; a business operation software system is formed, which further improves the early warning and forecast accuracy of wind disasters, and improves the power grid and The pertinence of equipment for disaster prevention and mitigation and the efficiency of emergency rescue have improved the safe operation level of the power grid and the reliability of social electricity consumption.
Description
技术领域technical field
本发明涉及气象预报技术领域,更具体地,涉及一种基于深度学习的电网大风灾害预警方法及装置。The invention relates to the technical field of weather forecasting, and more particularly, to a method and device for early warning of a power grid gale disaster based on deep learning.
背景技术Background technique
电网的正常运行与气象条件密切相关,气象变化对电网负荷的高峰出现时间以及峰值有显著影响,并且气象灾害还会威胁电网的安全运行,由于自然灾害在成的电网系统稳定性破坏事故仅次于设别故障,而成为威胁电网安全的第二大因素,因此有效的、提前的对电网运行气象环境以及气象灾害进行预测和预警,是实现防灾减灾的有效途径,具有重要意义。The normal operation of the power grid is closely related to the meteorological conditions. The meteorological changes have a significant impact on the peak occurrence time and peak value of the power grid load, and meteorological disasters also threaten the safe operation of the power grid. Therefore, it is of great significance to effectively and advance forecast and early warning of the meteorological environment and meteorological disasters of power grid operation, which is an effective way to achieve disaster prevention and mitigation.
在气象灾害中,大风对于电网系统中的输电线路的影响最为严重,通常大风灾害包括:引起杆塔倒塔、中断电力输送,吹起异物引发线路短路、引发联动故障造成更大的停电范围,风力异常造成线路舞动、诱发风偏闪络,降低重合闸成功率。Among meteorological disasters, strong winds have the most serious impact on the transmission lines in the power grid system. Usually, strong wind disasters include: causing towers to collapse, interrupting power transmission, blowing foreign objects to cause line short-circuits, and causing linkage faults to cause larger power outages, wind power The abnormality causes the line to dance, induces wind deflection and flashover, and reduces the success rate of reclosing.
现有技术中,中国专利(CN109902885B)提出了“基于深度学习混合CNN-LSTM模型的台风预测方法”,对台风是否形成以及形成后的路径和强度进行预测;中国专利申请(CN109492756A)提出了“基于深度学习的多要素导线舞动预警方法及相关装置”以获得输电线路舞动的有效预警信息;中国专利申请(CN109447315A)提出“一种电力气象要素数值预报方法”基于融合后的电力气象数据和中尺度数值天气预报模式得到短期预报结果,再基于短期预报结果和雷达监测数据,采用深度卷积神经网络方法识别雷达回波拼图的特征信息,最后基于特征信息,并采用深度学习方法对电力气象要素进行短临预报,得到短临预报结果;中国专利(CN106126896B)提出了“一种基于经验模态分解和深度学习的混合模型风速预测方法及系统”,获取原始风速时间序列,根据经验模态分解对原始风速时间序列进行分解得到多个本征模态函数,利用各自对应的风速预测子模型进行预测,得到每个风速预测子模型的预测输出值,再进行组合叠加处理得到最终的整体预测输出值;中国专利(CN103413174B)提出了“基于深度学习方法的短期风速多步预测方法”,利用多输入多输出结构的深度神经网络回归模型对风速进行多步预测。In the prior art, a Chinese patent (CN109902885B) proposes a "typhoon prediction method based on a deep learning hybrid CNN-LSTM model" to predict whether a typhoon will form and its path and intensity after it is formed; the Chinese patent application (CN109492756A) proposes " Multi-element conductor galloping early warning method and related devices based on deep learning" to obtain effective early warning information of transmission line galloping; Chinese patent application (CN109447315A) proposes "a numerical forecasting method for power meteorological elements" based on the fusion of power meteorological data and medium Based on the short-term forecast results and radar monitoring data, the deep convolutional neural network method is used to identify the characteristic information of the radar echo puzzle. Finally, based on the characteristic information, the deep learning method is used to analyze the power and meteorological elements. Carry out short-term forecasting and obtain short-term forecasting results; Chinese patent (CN106126896B) proposes "a hybrid model wind speed forecasting method and system based on empirical mode decomposition and deep learning", obtains the original wind speed time series, and decomposes it according to the empirical mode The original wind speed time series is decomposed to obtain multiple eigenmode functions, and the corresponding wind speed prediction sub-models are used for prediction to obtain the predicted output value of each wind speed prediction sub-model, and then combined and superimposed to obtain the final overall prediction output. The Chinese patent (CN103413174B) proposes a "short-term wind speed multi-step prediction method based on deep learning method", which uses a deep neural network regression model with a multi-input and multi-output structure to perform multi-step prediction of wind speed.
现有技术中,不同天气系统产生的大风特征有很大差别,其预警预报方法也不同,如何利用雷达观测的三维回波强度数据自动识别不同类别大风比较困难,需要进行对流系统的识别和跟踪、飑线主要特征的提取、飑线识别等步骤;然后根据飑线发展阶段的判断、飑线形状的判断等,分析产生大风的时间、位置和级别。不同类型大风对电力生产和设备的影响不但与风速有关,而且与风向有关,还与风的持续时间、风速和风向的瞬时变化等有关。现有大风预测预警技术针对公共服务较多,面向电网生产的专业大风灾害预警服务较少,并且未针对电网不同生产阶段的风害进行分类、没有系统性大风的预警预报方法和分等级预报产品。In the prior art, the characteristics of strong winds generated by different weather systems are very different, and their early warning and forecasting methods are also different. It is difficult to automatically identify different types of strong winds by using the three-dimensional echo intensity data observed by radar, and it is necessary to identify and track the convective system. , extraction of the main features of the squall line, identification of the squall line, etc. Then, according to the judgment of the development stage of the squall line, the judgment of the shape of the squall line, etc., analyze the time, location and level of the strong wind. The impact of different types of strong winds on power production and equipment is not only related to wind speed, but also to wind direction, as well as to the duration of the wind, the instantaneous change of wind speed and wind direction, and so on. Existing gale forecasting and early warning technologies are mostly aimed at public services, but there are few professional gale disaster warning services for power grid production, and there is no classification for wind damage in different production stages of the power grid, and there is no systematic gale warning and forecasting method and graded forecasting products. .
发明内容SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION
为解决现有技术中存在的不足,本发明的目的在于,提供一种基于深度学习的电网大风灾害预警方法及装置,直接以多普勒雷达数据作为数据输入,大风的相关信息作为输出,经过电网实际运行情况与微地形相关影响进行风速修正,并将修正后的风速作为风灾预警的风速。In order to solve the deficiencies in the prior art, the purpose of the present invention is to provide a power grid gale disaster early warning method and device based on deep learning, directly using Doppler radar data as data input, and gale related information as output, through According to the actual operation of the power grid and the influence of micro-topography, the wind speed is corrected, and the corrected wind speed is used as the wind speed for wind disaster warning.
本发明采用如下的技术方案。The present invention adopts the following technical solutions.
一种基于深度学习的电网大风灾害预警方法的步骤如下:The steps of a deep learning-based grid wind disaster early warning method are as follows:
步骤1,采集雷达数据,形成输入数据;Step 1, collect radar data to form input data;
步骤2,将输入数据输入至预先训练好的风速预测模型中;其中风速预测模型是采用深度学习算法对样本数据进行训练后得到,风速预测模型能够根据所输入的样本数据输出风速信息;Step 2, input the input data into the pre-trained wind speed prediction model; wherein the wind speed prediction model is obtained after training the sample data by using a deep learning algorithm, and the wind speed prediction model can output wind speed information according to the input sample data;
步骤3,获取风速预测模型输出的风速信息,作为预先训练好的风灾预警模型的输入要素,输入到风灾预警模型中;其中风灾预警模型结合同时期自动气象观测站数据,对风速信息进行拟合修正,风灾预警模型能够输出排除了由于微地形信息产生的误差后的风速修订信息;Step 3: Obtain the wind speed information output by the wind speed prediction model, as an input element of the pre-trained wind disaster early warning model, and input it into the wind disaster early warning model; wherein the wind disaster early warning model combines the data of the automatic meteorological observation station in the same period to fit the wind speed information Corrected, the wind disaster early warning model can output the revised wind speed information after excluding the errors caused by the micro-topographic information;
步骤4,获取风速修订信息,对大风灾害分级预警。Step 4, obtain wind speed revision information, and give early warning of high wind disasters.
优选地,步骤1中,雷达数据包括从当前体扫回波中获得的最大回波强度、最大回波强度对应高度、对流单体回波顶高、回波强度的时变、径向速度、几何中心位置、云含水量、云的形状、风切变、近地湿度、对应自动站的风速、中气旋、反射率、经纬度。Preferably, in step 1, the radar data includes the maximum echo intensity obtained from the current body scan echo, the height corresponding to the maximum echo intensity, the echo top height of the convective cell, the time variation of the echo intensity, the radial velocity, Geometric center position, cloud water content, cloud shape, wind shear, near-ground humidity, wind speed corresponding to automatic stations, mesocyclone, reflectivity, latitude and longitude.
优选地,Preferably,
步骤2中,风速预测模型的训练方法包括:In step 2, the training method of the wind speed prediction model includes:
步骤2.1,采集雷达历史数据作为风速预测模型的输入样本数据,雷达历史数据包括从历史体扫回波中获得的最大回波强度、最大回波强度对应高度、对流单体回波顶高、回波强度的时变、径向速度、几何中心位置、云含水量、云的形状、风切变、近地湿度、对应自动站的风速、中气旋、反射率、经纬度;Step 2.1: Collect historical radar data as the input sample data for the wind speed prediction model. The historical radar data includes the maximum echo intensity obtained from the historical volume sweep echo, the height corresponding to the maximum echo intensity, the echo top height of the convective cell, and the echo Time-varying wave intensity, radial velocity, geometric center position, cloud water content, cloud shape, wind shear, near-ground humidity, wind speed corresponding to automatic stations, mesocyclone, reflectivity, latitude and longitude;
步骤2.2,依据输入样本数据得到用于表征风速和风向的风速信息,并将该风速信息作为风速预测模型的输出样本数据;Step 2.2, obtaining wind speed information for characterizing wind speed and wind direction according to the input sample data, and using the wind speed information as the output sample data of the wind speed prediction model;
步骤2.3,将输入样本数据和输出样本数据组合为样本数据,样本数据包括从历史体扫回波中获得的最大回波强度、最大回波强度对应高度、对流单体回波顶高、回波强度的时变、径向速度、几何中心位置、云含水量、云的形状、风切变、近地湿度、对应自动站的风速、中气旋、反射率、经纬度,以及历史体扫回波对应的风速和风向;Step 2.3, combine the input sample data and the output sample data into sample data, the sample data includes the maximum echo intensity obtained from the historical volume sweep echo, the corresponding height of the maximum echo intensity, the echo top height of the convective monomer, the echo Time-varying intensity, radial velocity, geometric center position, cloud water content, cloud shape, wind shear, near-ground humidity, wind speed corresponding to automatic stations, mesocyclone, reflectivity, latitude and longitude, and historical volume sweep echo correspondence wind speed and direction;
步骤2.4,将多个样本数据组合为样本数据集,以样本数据集内全部输入样本数据作为风速预测模型的输入数据,以样本数据集内全部输出样本数据作为风速预测模型的输出数据,自底层向顶层,逐层开展非监督学习,对各层权重参数进行训练;Step 2.4, combine multiple sample data into a sample data set, use all the input sample data in the sample data set as the input data of the wind speed prediction model, and use all the output sample data in the sample data set as the output data of the wind speed prediction model, from the bottom layer. To the top layer, unsupervised learning is carried out layer by layer, and the weight parameters of each layer are trained;
步骤2.5,基于训练得到的各层权重参数,适用wake-sleep算法,自顶层向底层,逐层开展监督学习,对各层权重参数进行调整;Step 2.5, based on the weight parameters of each layer obtained by training, apply the wake-sleep algorithm, carry out supervised learning layer by layer from the top layer to the bottom layer, and adjust the weight parameters of each layer;
步骤2.6,将样本数据集内全部输入样本数据输入到训练和调整后的风速预测模型中,获取训练和调整后的风速预测模型输出的测试数据;当测试数据与输出样本数据之间的误差满足预设要求,则以训练和调整后的模型作为最终可用的风速预测模型;当测试数据与输出样本数据之间的误差无法满足预设要求,则返回步骤2.4,对模型进行训练和调整。Step 2.6: Input all the input sample data in the sample data set into the trained and adjusted wind speed prediction model, and obtain the test data output by the trained and adjusted wind speed prediction model; when the error between the test data and the output sample data satisfies For the preset requirements, the trained and adjusted model is used as the final available wind speed prediction model; when the error between the test data and the output sample data cannot meet the preset requirements, return to step 2.4 to train and adjust the model.
风速预测模型是深度学习神经网络模型,包括输入层、3层隐层、输出层;其中,输入层包括32个网络节点,输出层包括3个网络节点,隐层内自输入层向输出层方向的网络节点数依次为16个、8个和4个;学习率设置为0.001。The wind speed prediction model is a deep learning neural network model, including an input layer, 3 hidden layers, and an output layer; the input layer includes 32 network nodes, the output layer includes 3 network nodes, and the hidden layer goes from the input layer to the output layer. The number of network nodes is 16, 8 and 4 in sequence; the learning rate is set to 0.001.
隐层采用3个单独训练后的受限玻尔兹曼机堆叠组成的网络结构。The hidden layer adopts a network structure composed of a stack of 3 individually trained restricted Boltzmann machines.
隐层的激活函数采用sigmoid函数,输出层的激活函数采用softmax函数。The activation function of the hidden layer adopts the sigmoid function, and the activation function of the output layer adopts the softmax function.
优选地,样本数据在输入模型之前,需要进行归一化处理。Preferably, the sample data needs to be normalized before being input into the model.
优选地,Preferably,
步骤3中,风灾预警模型的训练方法包括:In step 3, the training method of the wind disaster early warning model includes:
步骤3.1,采集风速预测区域内同时期自动气象观测站数据、风速预测区域的微地形信息;Step 3.1, collect the data of automatic meteorological observation stations in the same period in the wind speed prediction area and the micro-topographic information of the wind speed prediction area;
步骤3.2,以风速信息与同时期自动气象观测站数据的差值作为目标函数;Step 3.2, take the difference between the wind speed information and the data of the automatic meteorological observation station in the same period as the objective function;
步骤3.3,根据微地形信息构建微地形修正系数;Step 3.3, constructing a micro-terrain correction coefficient according to the micro-terrain information;
步骤3.4,以目标函数的值最优为训练目标,调整微地形修正系数;Step 3.4, take the optimal value of the objective function as the training target, and adjust the micro-terrain correction coefficient;
步骤3.5,利用调整后的微地形修正系数对构建最终可用的风灾预警模型。In step 3.5, the final usable wind disaster warning model is constructed by using the adjusted micro-terrain correction coefficient pair.
微地形修正系数满足如下关系式:The micro-terrain correction coefficient satisfies the following relationship:
S=1+K1K2K3 S=1+K 1 K 2 K 3
式中,In the formula,
K1表示地形类别参数,对于山峰和山坡分别取值为2.2H/L和1.4H/L,其中H为山体高度、L为山体迎风面宽度,K 1 represents the terrain category parameter, which is 2.2H/L and 1.4H/L for mountain peaks and slopes respectively, where H is the height of the mountain, L is the width of the windward side of the mountain,
K2表示水平坐标参数,满足K2=1-|x|/L,其中,x为离山顶的水平坐标,K 2 represents the horizontal coordinate parameter, which satisfies K 2 =1-|x|/L, where x is the horizontal coordinate from the top of the mountain,
K3表示高度坐标参数,满足K3=1-z/2.5H,其中,z为离山体表面的高度,K 3 represents the height coordinate parameter, which satisfies K 3 =1-z/2.5H, where z is the height from the mountain surface,
当z>2.5H时,令S=1;When z>2.5H, let S=1;
当H/L>0.3时,取H/L=0.3。When H/L>0.3, take H/L=0.3.
一种基于深度学习的电网大风灾害预警装置包括:采集模块、风速预测模块、风灾预警模块和输出模块;A power grid wind disaster early warning device based on deep learning includes: a collection module, a wind speed prediction module, a wind disaster early warning module and an output module;
采集模块,用于采集雷达数据作为输入数据;雷达数据包括从当前体扫回波中获得的最大回波强度、最大回波强度对应高度、对流单体回波顶高、回波强度的时变、径向速度、几何中心位置、云含水量、云的形状、风切变、近地湿度、对应自动站的风速、中气旋、反射率、经纬度;The acquisition module is used to collect radar data as input data; the radar data includes the maximum echo intensity obtained from the current body sweep echo, the height corresponding to the maximum echo intensity, the echo top height of the convective monomer, and the time-varying echo intensity. , radial velocity, geometric center position, cloud water content, cloud shape, wind shear, near-ground humidity, wind speed corresponding to the automatic station, mesocyclone, reflectivity, latitude and longitude;
风速预测模块,用于将输入数据输入至预先训练好的风速预测模型中;其中风速预测模型是采用深度学习算法对样本数据进行训练后得到,风速预测模型能够根据所输入的样本数据输出风速信息;The wind speed prediction module is used to input the input data into the pre-trained wind speed prediction model; the wind speed prediction model is obtained after training the sample data by using the deep learning algorithm, and the wind speed prediction model can output the wind speed information according to the input sample data. ;
风灾预警模块,用于获取风速预测模型输出的风速信息,作为预先训练好的风灾预警模型的输入要素,输入到风灾预警模型中;其中风灾预警模型结合同时期自动气象观测站数据,对风速信息进行拟合修正,风灾预警模型能够输出排除了由于微地形信息产生的误差后的风速修订信息;The wind disaster early warning module is used to obtain the wind speed information output by the wind speed prediction model, which is used as the input element of the pre-trained wind disaster early warning model and input into the wind disaster early warning model. By fitting and correcting, the wind disaster warning model can output the wind speed revision information after excluding the errors caused by the micro-topographic information;
输出模块,用于获取风速修订信息,向用户发送大风灾害分级预警。The output module is used to obtain wind speed revision information and send high wind disaster graded warnings to users.
本发明的有益效果在于,与现有技术相比,实现了大风灾害的分等级预警预报,实时提供分等级的大风位置预警,解决了电网风害精细化预报难题,其中强对流大风形成1km×1km空间分辨率,0-120分钟预报结果;形成业务运行软件系统,进一步提高大风灾害预警预报精度,提升了电网及设备防灾减灾的针对性、应急抢险效率,提高了电网安全运行水平和社会用电可靠性。Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that, compared with the prior art, it realizes the graded early warning and forecast of gale disasters, provides real-time graded gale position early warning, and solves the problem of fine forecasting of wind damage in the power grid. 1km spatial resolution, 0-120 minutes forecast results; a business operation software system is formed, which further improves the early warning and forecast accuracy of wind disasters, improves the pertinence of power grid and equipment disaster prevention and mitigation, and emergency rescue efficiency, and improves the level of safe operation of the power grid and social security. Electricity reliability.
附图说明Description of drawings
图1为本发明一种基于深度学习的电网大风灾害预警方法的流程图;1 is a flowchart of a deep learning-based grid wind disaster early warning method of the present invention;
图2为本发明一种基于深度学习的电网大风灾害预警方法中风速预测模型和风灾预警模型的框架示意图;2 is a schematic diagram of a framework of a wind speed prediction model and a wind disaster early warning model in a deep learning-based grid wind disaster early warning method of the present invention;
图3为本发明一种基于深度学习的电网大风灾害预警装置的结构示意图。FIG. 3 is a schematic structural diagram of a power grid gale disaster early warning device based on deep learning of the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
下面结合附图对本申请作进一步描述。以下实施例仅用于更加清楚地说明本发明的技术方案,而不能以此来限制本申请的保护范围。The present application will be further described below with reference to the accompanying drawings. The following examples are only used to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention, and cannot be used to limit the protection scope of the present application.
如图1,一种基于深度学习的电网大风灾害预警方法的步骤如下:As shown in Figure 1, the steps of a deep learning-based grid wind disaster early warning method are as follows:
步骤1,采集雷达数据,形成输入数据。Step 1: Collect radar data to form input data.
具体地,步骤1中,雷达数据包括但不限于,从当前体扫回波中获得的最大回波强度、最大回波强度对应高度、对流单体回波顶高、回波强度的时变、径向速度、几何中心位置、云含水量、云的形状、风切变、近地湿度、对应自动站的风速、中气旋、反射率、经纬度。Specifically, in step 1, the radar data includes, but is not limited to, the maximum echo intensity obtained from the current body scan echo, the height corresponding to the maximum echo intensity, the echo top height of the convective cell, the time variation of the echo intensity, Radial velocity, geometric center position, cloud water content, cloud shape, wind shear, near-ground humidity, wind speed corresponding to automatic stations, mesocyclone, reflectivity, latitude and longitude.
在风速预测阶段,深度学习深层神经网络输入参数共31个特征参数,所属领域技术人员根据实际需求选择不同类型、不同数量的特征参数作为深层神经网络的输入参数,本优选实施例中所选择的输入参数是一种非限制性的较优选择。In the wind speed prediction stage, the deep learning deep neural network input parameters have a total of 31 characteristic parameters, and those skilled in the art select different types and different quantities of characteristic parameters as the input parameters of the deep neural network according to actual needs. Input parameters are a non-limiting preference.
步骤2,如图2所示,将输入数据输入至预先训练好的风速预测模型中;其中风速预测模型是采用深度学习算法对样本数据进行训练后得到,风速预测模型能够根据所输入的样本数据输出风速信息。Step 2, as shown in Figure 2, input the input data into the pre-trained wind speed prediction model; the wind speed prediction model is obtained after training the sample data by using a deep learning algorithm, and the wind speed prediction model can be based on the input sample data. Output wind speed information.
具体地,specifically,
步骤2中,风速预测模型的训练方法包括:In step 2, the training method of the wind speed prediction model includes:
步骤2.1,采集雷达历史数据作为风速预测模型的输入样本数据,雷达历史数据包括从历史体扫回波中获得的最大回波强度、最大回波强度对应高度、对流单体回波顶高、回波强度的时变、径向速度、几何中心位置、云含水量、云的形状、风切变、近地湿度、对应自动站的风速、中气旋、反射率、经纬度;Step 2.1: Collect historical radar data as the input sample data for the wind speed prediction model. The historical radar data includes the maximum echo intensity obtained from the historical volume sweep echo, the height corresponding to the maximum echo intensity, the echo top height of the convective cell, and the echo Time-varying wave intensity, radial velocity, geometric center position, cloud water content, cloud shape, wind shear, near-ground humidity, wind speed corresponding to automatic stations, mesocyclone, reflectivity, latitude and longitude;
步骤2.2,依据输入样本数据得到用于表征风速和风向的风速信息,并将该风速信息作为风速预测模型的输出样本数据;Step 2.2, obtaining wind speed information for characterizing wind speed and wind direction according to the input sample data, and using the wind speed information as the output sample data of the wind speed prediction model;
步骤2.3,将输入样本数据和输出样本数据组合为样本数据,样本数据包括从历史体扫回波中获得的最大回波强度、最大回波强度对应高度、对流单体回波顶高、回波强度的时变、径向速度、几何中心位置、云含水量、云的形状、风切变、近地湿度、对应自动站的风速、中气旋、反射率、经纬度,以及历史体扫回波对应的风速和风向;Step 2.3, combine the input sample data and the output sample data into sample data, the sample data includes the maximum echo intensity obtained from the historical volume sweep echo, the corresponding height of the maximum echo intensity, the echo top height of the convective monomer, the echo Time-varying intensity, radial velocity, geometric center position, cloud water content, cloud shape, wind shear, near-ground humidity, wind speed corresponding to automatic stations, mesocyclone, reflectivity, latitude and longitude, and historical volume sweep echo correspondence wind speed and direction;
步骤2.4,将多个样本数据组合为样本数据集,以样本数据集内全部输入样本数据作为风速预测模型的输入数据,以样本数据集内全部输出样本数据作为风速预测模型的输出数据,自底层向顶层,逐层开展非监督学习,对各层权重参数进行训练;Step 2.4, combine multiple sample data into a sample data set, use all the input sample data in the sample data set as the input data of the wind speed prediction model, and use all the output sample data in the sample data set as the output data of the wind speed prediction model, from the bottom layer. To the top layer, unsupervised learning is carried out layer by layer, and the weight parameters of each layer are trained;
本优选实施例中,采用无标定数据分层训练各层参数,是无监督训练过程,其流程为:先用无标定数据训练第一层,训练时先学习第一层的参数,由于模型的限制以及稀疏性约束,使得得到的模型能够学习到数据本身的结构,从而得到比输入更具有表示能力的特征;在学习得到第n-1层后,将n-1层的输出作为第n层的输入,训练第n层,由此分别得到各层的参数。In this preferred embodiment, the uncalibrated data is used to train the parameters of each layer hierarchically, which is an unsupervised training process. Restrictions and sparsity constraints, so that the resulting model can learn the structure of the data itself, so as to obtain features that are more representative than the input; after learning to obtain the n-1th layer, the output of the n-1 layer is used as the nth layer The input of the nth layer is trained, and the parameters of each layer are obtained respectively.
步骤2.5,基于训练得到的各层权重参数,适用wake-sleep算法,自顶层向底层,逐层开展监督学习,对各层权重参数进行调整;Step 2.5, based on the weight parameters of each layer obtained by training, apply the wake-sleep algorithm, carry out supervised learning layer by layer from the top layer to the bottom layer, and adjust the weight parameters of each layer;
本优选实施例中,采用带标签的数据去训练,误差自顶向下传输,对网络进行微调,其流程为:基于步骤2.4训练得到的各层参数进一步优化调整整个多层模型的参数,是有监督训练过程;第一步类似神经网络的随机初始化初值过程,由于深度学习的第一步不是随机初始化,而是通过学习输入数据的结构得到的,因而这个初值更接近全局最优,从而能够取得更好的效果。In this preferred embodiment, the labeled data is used for training, the error is transmitted from top to bottom, and the network is fine-tuned. Supervised training process; the first step is similar to the random initialization initial value process of neural network. Since the first step of deep learning is not random initialization, but obtained by learning the structure of the input data, this initial value is closer to the global optimum, Thereby a better effect can be achieved.
步骤2.6,将样本数据集内全部输入样本数据输入到训练和调整后的风速预测模型中,获取训练和调整后的风速预测模型输出的测试数据;当测试数据与输出样本数据之间的误差满足预设要求,则以训练和调整后的模型作为最终可用的风速预测模型;当测试数据与输出样本数据之间的误差无法满足预设要求,则返回步骤2.4,对模型进行训练和调整。Step 2.6: Input all the input sample data in the sample data set into the trained and adjusted wind speed prediction model, and obtain the test data output by the trained and adjusted wind speed prediction model; when the error between the test data and the output sample data satisfies For the preset requirements, the trained and adjusted model is used as the final available wind speed prediction model; when the error between the test data and the output sample data cannot meet the preset requirements, return to step 2.4 to train and adjust the model.
在实际训练中,如果对所有层同时训练,时间复杂度会太高;如果每次训练一层,偏差就会逐层传递,由于深层神经网络中的神经元和参数太多,会导致严重的过拟合。因此,本优选实施例提出了上述风速预测模型的训练方法。In actual training, if all layers are trained at the same time, the time complexity will be too high; if one layer is trained each time, the deviation will be transmitted layer by layer, because there are too many neurons and parameters in the deep neural network, it will cause serious problems overfitting. Therefore, the present preferred embodiment proposes the above-mentioned training method for the wind speed prediction model.
该训练方法将除最顶层的其它层间的权重变为双向的,这样最顶层仍然是一个单层神经网络,而其它层则变为了图模型。向上的权重用于认知,向下的权重用于生成,使用Wake-Sleep算法调整所有的权重,让认知和生成达成一致,也就是保证了生成的最顶层表示能够尽可能正确的复原底层的结点。This training method makes the weights between the other layers except the top one bidirectional, so that the top layer is still a single-layer neural network, and the other layers become graph models. The upward weight is used for cognition, and the downward weight is used for generation. The Wake-Sleep algorithm is used to adjust all the weights so that cognition and generation are consistent, that is, to ensure that the generated top-level representation can restore the bottom layer as accurately as possible. 's node.
Wake-Sleep算法分为醒(wake)和睡(sleep)两个部分。其中:The Wake-Sleep algorithm is divided into two parts: wake and sleep. in:
(1)wake阶段:认知过程,通过外界的特征和向上的权重,即认知权重,产生每一层的抽象表示,表述为结点状态,并且使用梯度下降修改层间的下行权重,即生成权重。(1) Wake stage: cognitive process, through external features and upward weights, namely cognitive weights, an abstract representation of each layer is generated, expressed as a node state, and gradient descent is used to modify the downward weights between layers, that is Generate weights.
(2)sleep阶段:生成过程,通过顶层表示,即wake阶段时学得的概念,和向下权重,生成底层的状态,同时修改层间向上的权重。(2) Sleep stage: The generation process, through the top-level representation, that is, the concepts learned in the wake stage, and the downward weight, generate the state of the bottom layer, and at the same time modify the upward weight between layers.
具体地,风速预测模型是深度学习神经网络模型,包括输入层、3层隐层、输出层;其中,输入层包括32个网络节点,输出层包括3个网络节点,隐层内自输入层向输出层方向的网络节点数依次为16个、8个和4个;学习率设置为0.001。Specifically, the wind speed prediction model is a deep learning neural network model, including an input layer, three hidden layers, and an output layer; wherein, the input layer includes 32 network nodes, the output layer includes 3 network nodes, and the hidden layer runs from the input layer to the output layer. The number of network nodes in the direction of the output layer is 16, 8 and 4; the learning rate is set to 0.001.
隐层采用3个单独训练后的受限玻尔兹曼机(Restricted Boltzmann Manchine,RBM)堆叠组成的网络结构。深层神经网络间的自下上升的非监督的预训练是采用RBM来实现的,它的学习目标是最大化似然值。The hidden layer adopts a network structure composed of three individually trained Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBM) stacked. Bottom-up unsupervised pre-training between deep neural networks is implemented using RBM, whose learning objective is to maximize the likelihood.
隐层的激活函数采用sigmoid函数,输出层的激活函数采用softmax函数。The activation function of the hidden layer adopts the sigmoid function, and the activation function of the output layer adopts the softmax function.
样本数据在输入模型之前,需要进行归一化处理。由于不同的样本数据的单位和取值范围均不统一,因此需要对样本数据进行归一化处理。The sample data needs to be normalized before entering the model. Since the units and value ranges of different sample data are not uniform, it is necessary to normalize the sample data.
本优选实施例中,采取的归一化方法是0均值1方差的高斯归一化算法;进行过归一化处理后的样本数据的取值范围限制在了一个较小的范围,训练模型时将进行过归一化后的雷达数据作为输入样本数据,归一化后的自动气象站的观测数据作为输出样本数据。In this preferred embodiment, the normalization method adopted is a Gaussian normalization algorithm with 0 mean and 1 variance; the value range of the normalized sample data is limited to a small range, and when training the model The normalized radar data is used as the input sample data, and the normalized observation data of the automatic weather station is used as the output sample data.
步骤3,获取风速预测模型输出的风速信息,作为预先训练好的风灾预警模型的输入要素,输入到风灾预警模型中;其中风灾预警模型结合同时期自动气象观测站数据,对风速信息进行拟合修正,风灾预警模型能够输出排除了由于微地形信息产生的误差后的风速修订信息;Step 3: Obtain the wind speed information output by the wind speed prediction model, as an input element of the pre-trained wind disaster early warning model, and input it into the wind disaster early warning model; wherein the wind disaster early warning model combines the data of the automatic meteorological observation station in the same period to fit the wind speed information Corrected, the wind disaster early warning model can output the revised wind speed information after excluding the errors caused by the micro-topographic information;
优选地,Preferably,
步骤3中,风灾预警模型的训练方法包括:In step 3, the training method of the wind disaster early warning model includes:
步骤3.1,采集风速预测区域内同时期自动气象观测站数据、风速预测区域的微地形信息;Step 3.1, collect the data of automatic meteorological observation stations in the same period in the wind speed prediction area and the micro-topographic information of the wind speed prediction area;
步骤3.2,以风速信息与同时期自动气象观测站数据的差值作为目标函数;Step 3.2, take the difference between the wind speed information and the data of the automatic meteorological observation station in the same period as the objective function;
步骤3.3,根据微地形信息构建微地形修正系数;Step 3.3, constructing a micro-terrain correction coefficient according to the micro-terrain information;
步骤3.4,以目标函数的值最优为训练目标,调整微地形修正系数;Step 3.4, take the optimal value of the objective function as the training target, and adjust the micro-terrain correction coefficient;
步骤3.5,利用调整后的微地形修正系数对构建最终可用的风灾预警模型。In step 3.5, the final usable wind disaster warning model is constructed by using the adjusted micro-terrain correction coefficient pair.
微地形修正系数满足如下关系式:The micro-terrain correction coefficient satisfies the following relationship:
S=1+K1K2K3 S=1+K 1 K 2 K 3
式中,In the formula,
K1表示地形类别参数,对于山峰和山坡分别取值为2.2H/L和1.4H/L,其中H为山体高度、L为山体迎风面宽度,K 1 represents the terrain category parameter, which is 2.2H/L and 1.4H/L for mountain peaks and slopes respectively, where H is the height of the mountain, L is the width of the windward side of the mountain,
K2表示水平坐标参数,满足K2=1-|x|/L,其中,x为离山顶的水平坐标,K 2 represents the horizontal coordinate parameter, which satisfies K 2 =1-|x|/L, where x is the horizontal coordinate from the top of the mountain,
K3表示高度坐标参数,满足K3=1-z/2.5H,其中,z为离山体表面的高度,K 3 represents the height coordinate parameter, which satisfies K 3 =1-z/2.5H, where z is the height from the mountain surface,
当z>2.5H时,令S=1;When z>2.5H, let S=1;
当H/L>0.3时,取H/L=0.3。When H/L>0.3, take H/L=0.3.
本优选实施例中,根据微地形信息构建微地形修正系数取修正风速信息,在实际应用场景中,电网运行工况、线路状态信息等均会对实际风速产生误差,需要采用参数修正的方法排除上述误差。值得注意的是,所属领域技术人员采用其它信息构建修正系数对风速信息进行修订的发明构思同样落入本发明的保护范围之内。In this preferred embodiment, the micro-terrain correction coefficient is constructed according to the micro-terrain information to obtain the corrected wind speed information. In the actual application scenario, the power grid operating conditions, line status information, etc. will all cause errors in the actual wind speed, and the parameter correction method needs to be used to eliminate them. the above errors. It is worth noting that the inventive concept of modifying the wind speed information by those skilled in the art using other information to construct a correction coefficient also falls within the protection scope of the present invention.
步骤4,获取风速修订信息,对大风灾害分级预警。Step 4, obtain wind speed revision information, and give early warning of high wind disasters.
本优选实施例中,将风灾划分为四个等级,详见表1。In this preferred embodiment, wind disasters are divided into four levels, see Table 1 for details.
表1大风灾害预警等级Table 1 Early warning level of gale disaster
如图3,一种基于深度学习的电网大风灾害预警装置包括:采集模块、风速预测模块、风灾预警模块和输出模块。As shown in Figure 3, a power grid wind disaster early warning device based on deep learning includes: a collection module, a wind speed prediction module, a wind disaster early warning module and an output module.
采集模块,用于采集雷达数据作为输入数据;雷达数据包括从当前体扫回波中获得的最大回波强度、最大回波强度对应高度、对流单体回波顶高、回波强度的时变、径向速度、几何中心位置、云含水量、云的形状、风切变、近地湿度、对应自动站的风速、中气旋、反射率、经纬度;The acquisition module is used to collect radar data as input data; the radar data includes the maximum echo intensity obtained from the current body sweep echo, the height corresponding to the maximum echo intensity, the echo top height of the convective monomer, and the time-varying echo intensity. , radial velocity, geometric center position, cloud water content, cloud shape, wind shear, near-ground humidity, wind speed corresponding to the automatic station, mesocyclone, reflectivity, latitude and longitude;
风速预测模块,用于将输入数据输入至预先训练好的风速预测模型中;其中风速预测模型是采用深度学习算法对样本数据进行训练后得到,风速预测模型能够根据所输入的样本数据输出风速信息;The wind speed prediction module is used to input the input data into the pre-trained wind speed prediction model; the wind speed prediction model is obtained after training the sample data by using the deep learning algorithm, and the wind speed prediction model can output the wind speed information according to the input sample data. ;
风灾预警模块,用于获取风速预测模型输出的风速信息,作为预先训练好的风灾预警模型的输入要素,输入到风灾预警模型中;其中风灾预警模型结合同时期自动气象观测站数据,对风速信息进行拟合修正,风灾预警模型能够输出排除了由于微地形信息产生的误差后的风速修订信息;The wind disaster early warning module is used to obtain the wind speed information output by the wind speed prediction model, which is used as the input element of the pre-trained wind disaster early warning model and input into the wind disaster early warning model. By fitting and correcting, the wind disaster warning model can output the wind speed revision information after excluding the errors caused by the micro-topographic information;
输出模块,用于获取风速修订信息,向用户发送大风灾害分级预警。The output module is used to obtain wind speed revision information and send high wind disaster graded warnings to users.
本发明的有益效果在于,与现有技术相比,本发明实现大风灾害的分等级预警预报,实时提供分等级的大风位置预警,解决了电网风害精细化预报难题,其中强对流大风形成1km×1km空间分辨率,0-120分钟预报结果;形成业务运行软件系统,进一步提高大风灾害预警预报精度,提升了电网及设备防灾减灾的针对性、应急抢险效率,提高了电网安全运行水平和社会用电可靠性。The beneficial effect of the present invention is that, compared with the prior art, the present invention realizes the graded early warning and forecast of gale disasters, provides graded gale position early warning in real time, and solves the problem of refined forecasting of wind damage in the power grid. ×1km spatial resolution, forecast results in 0-120 minutes; form a business operation software system, further improve the early warning and forecast accuracy of gale disasters, improve the pertinence of power grid and equipment disaster prevention and mitigation, and emergency rescue efficiency, and improve the level of safe operation of the power grid and Social electricity reliability.
本发明申请人结合说明书附图对本发明的实施示例做了详细的说明与描述,但是本领域技术人员应该理解,以上实施示例仅为本发明的优选实施方案,详尽的说明只是为了帮助读者更好地理解本发明精神,而并非对本发明保护范围的限制,相反,任何基于本发明的发明精神所作的任何改进或修饰都应当落在本发明的保护范围之内。The applicant of the present invention has described and described the embodiments of the present invention in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, but those skilled in the art should understand that the above embodiments are only preferred embodiments of the present invention, and the detailed description is only to help readers better It should be understood that the spirit of the present invention is not limited to the protection scope of the present invention. On the contrary, any improvement or modification made based on the spirit of the present invention should fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
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