CN112989601A - Submarine cable state evaluation method based on subjective and objective combination weighting - Google Patents

Submarine cable state evaluation method based on subjective and objective combination weighting Download PDF

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CN112989601A
CN112989601A CN202110266540.4A CN202110266540A CN112989601A CN 112989601 A CN112989601 A CN 112989601A CN 202110266540 A CN202110266540 A CN 202110266540A CN 112989601 A CN112989601 A CN 112989601A
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submarine cable
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苏天赐
李茜
林钰
袁海云
郑雅迪
张安安
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Southwest Petroleum University
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Abstract

The invention discloses a submarine cable state evaluation method based on subjective and objective combination empowerment, which comprises the following steps: firstly, acquiring panoramic data of submarine cable operation, selecting indexes affecting the health state of the submarine cable, and establishing an evaluation index system; secondly, determining the subjective weight of each state quantity by adopting an improved analytic hierarchy process, and determining the objective weight of each state quantity by adopting an entropy weight process; then combining the subjective weight and the objective weight to calculate a comprehensive weight; then determining the evaluated state grades, obtaining relative degradation degrees based on respective standards of the state quantities, obtaining fuzzy membership functions of the state grades of the state quantities, and constructing a fuzzy evaluation matrix; and finally, obtaining the membership degree of each state grade of the submarine cable based on the comprehensive weight and the fuzzy evaluation matrix, and evaluating the state of the submarine cable by adopting a weighted average method. The invention can realize accurate evaluation of the health state of the submarine cable, can check hidden dangers in time and ensure safe and reliable operation of the submarine cable.

Description

Submarine cable state evaluation method based on subjective and objective combination weighting
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power equipment safety, in particular to a submarine cable state evaluation method based on subjective and objective combination empowerment, and belongs to the technical field of submarine cable state evaluation.
Background
With the development and utilization of marine resources, and the development of offshore platforms and offshore wind farms, submarine cables have been increasingly used over the years as connecting channels for power and communication between offshore platform equipment and underwater production systems. The stable operation of the submarine cable is not only related to the production of the offshore platform, but also related to the reliable operation of the whole platform group power grid.
Due to the special operation environment of the submarine cable, routine inspection cannot be carried out, effective safety management measures are lacked, and once an accident happens, the loss is huge. With the development of optical fiber application technology, people can utilize optical fibers to perform real-time online monitoring on the operation parameters of the submarine cable by the operation of the submarine cable, comprehensively master the operation condition of the submarine under water, and have important effects on knowing the operation health level of the submarine cable and reasonably improving the conveying capacity of the submarine cable, and CN109870627A discloses a submarine cable fault alarming and diagnosing method based on distributed optical fiber temperature strain and vibration monitoring data. The submarine cable state evaluation method based on subjective and objective combination empowerment utilizes panoramic data of submarine cables to carry out state evaluation, and has important significance for guaranteeing normal operation and safe production of offshore oil and gas platforms.
At present, the state evaluation method for submarine cables is few, and CN111060472A discloses a method for characterizing and analyzing the aging state of a crosslinked polyethylene submarine cable insulating material, which utilizes a fourier infrared spectrum tester to rapidly detect samples in different aging states, and characterizes the aging state of a crosslinked polyethylene submarine cable insulating medium by infrared spectrum characteristic fingerprint absorption peak area, but only analyzes the aging state of the submarine cable, but does not analyze the overall health state of the submarine cable. And if only partial state quantity is considered to carry out state evaluation on the submarine cable, the evaluation result has the problems of high dispersity and high error.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the invention provides the submarine cable state evaluation method based on subjective and objective combination empowerment, which can realize accurate evaluation on the running states of a plurality of submarine cables, so that offshore platform workers can master the overall health state of the submarine cables in real time, and the submarine cables can be conveniently and reasonably used, maintained, power distribution managed, fault predicted and other operations.
In order to achieve the above object, the submarine cable state evaluation method and system based on multi-state fusion provided by the invention comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: acquiring panoramic data of submarine cable operation, selecting indexes affecting the health state of the submarine cable, and establishing an evaluation index system;
step two: determining subjective weight of each state quantity by adopting an improved analytic hierarchy process, and determining objective weight of each state quantity by adopting an entropy weight method;
step three: combining the subjective weight and the objective weight to calculate a comprehensive weight;
step four: determining the evaluated state grades, obtaining relative degradation degrees based on respective standards of the state quantities, obtaining fuzzy membership functions of the state grades of the state quantities, and constructing a fuzzy evaluation matrix;
step five: and obtaining the membership degree of each state grade of the submarine cable based on the comprehensive weight and the fuzzy evaluation matrix, and evaluating the state of the submarine cable by adopting a weighted average method.
Further, in step one, the evaluation index system is divided into three layers: the system comprises a target layer, a component layer and an index layer, wherein the target layer is used for comprehensively judging the overall operation health condition of the submarine cable, the component layer is used for judging and reflecting the operation health condition of each component of the submarine cable, and the index layer is used for reflecting the evaluation state quantity index corresponding to each component.
Further, the part layer contains submarine cable body, submarine cable terminal, subsidiary facility, comprehensive protection relay and submarine cable passageway, the state quantity that the index layer contains family defect, operation and patrols and examines, preventive test and on-line monitoring and constitute.
Further, the state quantities include the following:
the state quantity of the submarine cable body comprises: temperature, disturbance, stress, commissioning time, overload operation, body deformation, landing section submarine cable, main insulation resistance test, main insulation withstand voltage test, sheath insulation resistance test, sheath tolerance capability, optical fiber attenuation test, outer protective layer grounding current, load overload and family defect;
the state quantities of the submarine cable terminal comprise: terminal identification appearance, terminal room, terminal lightning arrester, leakage ammeter appearance, terminal grounding system, terminal fixing part appearance, rain cover appearance, external insulation, sleeve sealing, damage of porcelain terminal porcelain bushing or supporting insulator, porcelain bushing dirt condition, terminal appearance, infrared temperature measurement of connecting part of terminal and metal part, infrared temperature measurement of sleeve body and family defects;
the state quantities of the attached facilities include: the appearance of the bracket, the grounding performance of the bracket, the appearance of a hoop, the appearance of a grounding box, the grounding state of a main wiring lead, the damage of the main grounding lead, the connectivity of the grounding box, the connectivity of a return wire, the damage of the return wire, fire prevention measures, a signboard, online monitoring equipment, the loss of auxiliary equipment, the loss of grounding equipment, an equipment wire clamp and the infrared temperature measurement of a connecting lead are carried out;
the state quantity of the comprehensive protection relay comprises: appearance, motion indicator, crush, electrical performance;
the state quantities of the submarine cable channel comprise: submarine cable buried depth, AIS ship recognition, submarine cable tube arrangement tube packing deformation, distance between laid submarine cables and other pipelines, submarine cable line protection area activity, submarine cable line protection area condition, submarine cable route detection and terminal station grounding grid grounding resistance abnormity.
Further, in the second step, the process of determining the subjective weight of each state quantity of the submarine cable by the improved analytic hierarchy process is as follows:
1) selecting an exponential scale;
2) for n state quantities x1,x2…xnThe expert subjectively sorts the state quantities according to the mode that the importance degree is not reduced, and the priority relation among the state quantities is x1≥x2≥…≥xn；
3) The degree of importance of the neighboring state quantities is described by an exponential scale and is quantified as ci(i ═ 1,2, … n-1), a decision matrix C was constructed:
Figure BDA0002969894180000031
4) and (3) determining subjective weight:
Figure BDA0002969894180000032
wherein, anIs the nth stateSubjective weight of the quantity;
Figure BDA0002969894180000033
represents the product of all elements in the ith row in the matrix C;
the process of determining the objective weight of each state quantity of the submarine cable by the entropy weight method comprises the following steps:
1) sampling n groups of data, each group containing m state quantities, and making uijIs the value of the jth state quantity in the ith group of sampling data (i is 1,2, …, n; j is 1,2, … m);
2) respectively carrying out normalization processing on the positive indexes and the negative indexes;
for the forward indicator:
Figure BDA0002969894180000034
for the negative indicators:
Figure BDA0002969894180000035
3) calculating the weight of the jth state quantity in the ith group of data:
Figure BDA0002969894180000036
4) calculating the entropy of the j item state quantity:
Figure BDA0002969894180000041
5) calculating the objective weight of the jth state quantity:
Figure BDA0002969894180000042
wherein, betajIs the objective weight value of the jth state quantity.
Further, in step three, the subjective weight and the objective weight are combined to calculate a comprehensive weight:
Figure BDA0002969894180000043
wherein, aiI th subjective weight, beta, determined for improved analytic hierarchy processiCorresponding objective weights, w, determined for the entropy weight methodiIs the integrated weight, and gamma is the variable weight coefficient.
Further, the status levels are divided into: normal v1Attention v2V abnormality v3Severe v44 status levels; the relative deterioration degree includes a more stable value and a more stable value, and the value is [0,1 ]]Within the range;
for the index which is more stable as the numerical value is smaller, the state quantity is normalized by the following formula:
Figure BDA0002969894180000044
for the index which is more stable as the numerical value is larger, the formula for normalizing the state quantity is as follows:
Figure BDA0002969894180000045
wherein Q is0Rated value for the nth state quantity, QmaxAnd QminIs the limit value of the nth state quantity, QiIs the measured data value.
Further, in the fourth step, the fuzzy membership function includes a quantitative index membership function and a qualitative membership function;
the fuzzy membership function of each state of the quantitative index is a distribution function combining a half trapezoid and a triangle:
Figure BDA0002969894180000046
Figure BDA0002969894180000047
Figure BDA0002969894180000048
Figure BDA0002969894180000051
the membership calculation expression of the qualitative index is as follows:
Figure BDA0002969894180000052
by making expert scoring table, the score is 0-1]The survey results are sorted to obtain the membership degree of the qualitative index, wherein l is the membership degree, and l is the membership degreekAs a score value, n is the number of experts.
Further, in the fourth step, the measured values of the quantitative indexes are normalized to obtain membership functions, and the membership values of the state quantities corresponding to the state levels are calculated through the membership functions of the qualitative indexes, so that a fuzzy evaluation matrix is obtained as follows:
Figure BDA0002969894180000053
wherein R is a fuzzy evaluation matrix of each component, RiIs the fuzzy evaluation matrix of the ith state quantity in the fuzzy evaluation matrix R of each part, RijRepresents the ith State quantity Pair comment vjMembership of (c).
Further, in step five, the membership of each state grade of the submarine cable comprises the membership of each part of the submarine cable and different state grades of the whole submarine cable:
membership degrees of different state grades of each part of the submarine cable:
Figure BDA0002969894180000054
membership degrees of different state grades of the whole submarine cable:
Figure BDA0002969894180000055
and obtaining a submarine cable state evaluation result by adopting a weighted average method according to the membership degree of each state grade of the submarine cable.
In conclusion, the beneficial effects of the invention are as follows:
the invention evaluates the indexes in the traditional state as follows: the online monitoring state index is added to the family defect, the operation inspection and the preventive test, an evaluation index system suitable for the submarine cable is established, and the problems of dispersity and large evaluation error of an evaluation result caused by incomplete selected evaluation state quantity in the prior art can be effectively solved by carrying out state evaluation on the evaluation index system; based on the mode of combining subjective and objective combination weighting and fuzzy evaluation matrix, the state of each part and the whole submarine cable is evaluated, and compared with the existing method of evaluating the state only by adopting subjective weight, the accuracy of the state evaluation result of the submarine cable obtained by calculation is extremely high; the invention can realize accurate evaluation of the health state of the submarine cable, is convenient for reasonable use, maintenance and other operations, and effectively avoids the defect that the submarine cable cannot accurately grasp the running health state in a complex marine environment.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a submarine cable state assessment method based on subjective and objective combination weighting according to the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a distribution function of the inventive combination of half-trapezoidal and triangular membership functions.
Detailed Description
The following further describes embodiments of the present invention with reference to the drawings, so that the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention will be more clearly understood. It should be understood that the detailed description and specific examples, while indicating the scope of the invention, are intended for purposes of illustration only and are not intended to limit the scope of the invention, which is to be construed as limiting the scope of the invention.
The submarine cable state evaluation method based on subjective and objective combination empowerment, disclosed by the invention, comprises the following steps as shown in figure 1:
the method comprises the following steps: acquiring panoramic data of submarine cable operation, and selecting indexes affecting the health state of the submarine cable to establish an evaluation index system.
TABLE 1 status indices of the respective parts
Name of component Status index
Submarine cable body On-line monitoring, family defect, operation inspection and test
Submarine cable terminal Family defect, operation inspection and test
Accessories Operation inspection and test
Integrated protective relay Operation inspection and test
Submarine cable channel On-line monitoring, operation inspection and test
Specifically, considering the health state of the submarine cable, following the principles of feasibility, easy acquisition and practicability of an evaluation index system, considering the complex structure of the submarine cable and the complex marine environment where the submarine cable is located, combining the requirements of relevant standard regulations, considering that the existing evaluation guide only has family defects, operation inspection and preventive tests, bringing online monitoring of the submarine cable into the index system, combining the geographic factors and environmental influence factors of the submarine cable, modifying and perfecting traditional state evaluation indexes of different types, and establishing the evaluation index system of the submarine cable. Wherein, the evaluation index system is divided into three layers: the system comprises a target layer, a component layer and an index layer, wherein the target layer is used for comprehensively judging the overall operation health condition of the submarine cable, the component layer is used for judging and reflecting the operation health condition of each component of the submarine cable, and the index layer is used for reflecting the evaluation state quantity index corresponding to each component. Wherein, the part layer contains submarine cable body, submarine cable terminal, subsidiary facility, comprehensive protection relay and submarine cable passageway. The index layer comprises state quantities of family defects, operation inspection, preventive tests and online monitoring. The submarine cables do not include submarine cable intermediate joints in consideration of the actual operation environment of the submarine cables, corresponding to each part of the submarine cables, as shown in table 1.
The state quantities include the following:
1) the state quantity of the submarine cable body comprises: temperature, disturbance, stress, commissioning time, overload operation, body deformation, landing section submarine cable, main insulation resistance test, main insulation withstand voltage test, sheath insulation resistance test, sheath tolerance capability, optical fiber attenuation test, outer protective layer grounding current, load overload and family defect;
2) the state quantities of the submarine cable terminal comprise: terminal identification appearance, terminal room, terminal lightning arrester, leakage ammeter appearance, terminal grounding system, terminal fixing part appearance, rain cover appearance, external insulation, sleeve sealing, damage of porcelain terminal porcelain bushing or supporting insulator, porcelain bushing dirt condition, terminal appearance, infrared temperature measurement of connecting part of terminal and metal part, infrared temperature measurement of sleeve body and family defects;
3) the state quantities of the attached facilities include: the appearance of the bracket, the grounding performance of the bracket, the appearance of a hoop, the appearance of a grounding box, the grounding state of a main wiring lead, the damage of the main grounding lead, the connectivity of the grounding box, the connectivity of a return wire, the damage of the return wire, fire prevention measures, a signboard, online monitoring equipment, the loss of auxiliary equipment, the loss of grounding equipment, an equipment wire clamp and the infrared temperature measurement of a connecting lead are carried out;
4) the state quantity of the comprehensive protection relay comprises: appearance, motion indicator, crush, electrical performance;
5) the state quantities of the submarine cable channel comprise: submarine cable buried depth, AIS ship recognition, submarine cable tube arrangement tube packing deformation, distance between laid submarine cables and other pipelines, submarine cable line protection area activity, submarine cable line protection area condition, submarine cable route detection and terminal station grounding grid grounding resistance abnormity.
The state quantities of the components are set according to actual requirements of the submarine cable, and specifically, the state quantities are selected according to online monitoring, family defects, operation inspection and preventive test data which can be acquired by the submarine cable.
Step two: and determining the subjective weight of each state quantity by adopting an improved analytic hierarchy process, and determining the objective weight of each state quantity by adopting an entropy weight method.
Specifically, the process of determining the subjective weight of each state quantity of the submarine cable by the improved analytic hierarchy process comprises the following steps:
1) selecting an exponential scale;
specifically, the exponential scale used selects a 5-level scale whose importance ratio λ is2The value is [1.1-1.5 ]]The time between the two is judged to be in accordance with the actual condition by the expert and the importance ratio lambda is calculated2The method comprises the following steps:
Figure BDA0002969894180000071
wherein n is the number of experts, YiDegree of importance of neighboring state quantities given to the ith expertThe ratio of the weights.
The values of λ were calculated and the index scale of the improved analytic hierarchy process is shown in table 2.
TABLE 2 Scale value description
Degree of distinction Description of the invention
λ0 The importance degree is the same
λ2 Of slight importance
λ4 Of obvious importance
λ6 Of strong importance
λ8 Of extreme importance
2) For n state quantities x1,x2…xnThe expert subjectively sorts the state quantities according to the mode that the importance degree is not reduced, and the priority relation among the state quantities is x1≥x2≥…≥xn；
3) The degree of importance of the neighboring state quantities is described by an exponential scale and is quantified as ci(i-1, 2, … n-1) using an inverse scale, the lower triangular portion of the matrix being the reciprocal of the upper triangular matrix portion, and the othersThe importance of the non-adjacent state quantities is obtained by the transmissibility of the importance of the state quantities, and a judgment matrix C is constructed:
Figure BDA0002969894180000081
wherein c isijAnd the judgment matrix C meets the consistency test and can be directly used for calculating the subjective weight.
4) And (3) determining subjective weight:
Figure BDA0002969894180000082
wherein, anThe subjective weight value is the nth state quantity;
Figure BDA0002969894180000083
represents the product of all elements in the ith row in the matrix C;
specifically, the process of determining the objective weight of each state quantity of the submarine cable by the entropy weight method comprises the following steps:
1) sampling n groups of data, each group containing m state quantities, and making uijIs the value of the jth state quantity in the ith group of sampling data (i is 1,2, …, n; j is 1,2, … m);
specifically, let U be n sets of sampled data, and the set is expressed as:
Figure BDA0002969894180000091
2) respectively carrying out normalization processing on the positive indexes and the negative indexes;
for the forward indicator:
Figure BDA0002969894180000092
for the negative indicators:
Figure BDA0002969894180000093
3) calculating the weight of the jth state quantity in the ith group of data:
Figure BDA0002969894180000094
4) calculating the entropy of the j item state quantity:
Figure BDA0002969894180000095
5) calculating the objective weight of the jth state quantity:
Figure BDA0002969894180000096
wherein, betajIs the objective weight value of the jth state quantity.
The improved analytic hierarchy process utilizes expert experience to obtain the subjective weight of each state quantity, is too general in weight determination, has strong subjective randomness and strong breaking performance, embodies the experience judgment of a decision maker, does not need sample data, completely depends on the experience of the expert to determine the importance sequence of evaluation indexes and determine the weight, and does not consider the influence of the difference of the indexes on the index weight. The entropy weight method fully utilizes the difference of data information of indexes to determine the objective weight of the state quantity, completely abandons subjective factors, only talks through data, and solves the problem of judging objects by analyzing the incidence relation between actually measured data of the state quantity. Therefore, the method of subjective and objective combination empowerment is adopted, which not only embodies the management and judgment experience accumulated by experts, but also combines the actual operation data on site.
Step three: and combining the subjective weight and the objective weight to calculate a comprehensive weight.
Specifically, the integrated weight calculation formula is as follows:
Figure BDA0002969894180000101
wherein, aiI th subjective weight, beta, determined for improved analytic hierarchy processiCorresponding objective weights, w, determined for the entropy weight methodiIs the integrated weight, and gamma is the variable weight coefficient. In consideration of the balance between the subjective weight and the objective weight, γ is taken to be 1.
The comprehensive weight matrix of the state quantities in each part is obtained based on the steps as follows:
w1＝(w1j)1×14,i＝1,2,…,14
w2＝(w1j)1×15,i＝1,2,…,15
w3＝(w1j)1×15,i＝1,2,…,15
w4＝(w1j)1×4,i＝1,2,3,4
w5＝(w1j)1×8,i＝1,2,…,8
in the formula, w1～w5And the comprehensive weights respectively correspond to the state quantities of the submarine cable body, the submarine cable terminal, the accessory facility, the comprehensive protection relay and the submarine cable channel in the component layer.
Step four: and determining the evaluated state grades, obtaining the relative degradation degree based on the respective standards of the state quantities, and obtaining the fuzzy membership function of each state grade of each state quantity so as to construct a fuzzy evaluation matrix.
Specifically, the state grades of the submarine cables are divided into: normal v1Attention v2V abnormality v3Severe v44 status levels; calculating the relative deterioration degree of each state quantity of the submarine cable, wherein the relative deterioration degree comprises that the numerical value is smaller and more stable, and the numerical value is larger and more stable, and is [0,1 ]]Within the range;
for the index which is more stable as the numerical value is smaller, the state quantity is normalized by the following formula:
Figure BDA0002969894180000102
for the index which is more stable as the numerical value is larger, the formula for normalizing the state quantity is as follows:
Figure BDA0002969894180000103
wherein Q is0Rated value for the nth state quantity, QmaxAnd QminIs the limit value of the nth state quantity, QiIs the measured data value.
Specifically, the fuzzy membership function includes a quantitative index membership function and a qualitative membership function.
TABLE 3 relative deterioration degree versus State level
Status rating Degree of relative deterioration
Is normal 0～0.4
Attention is paid to 0.4～0.7
Abnormality (S) 0.7～0.9
Severe severity of disease 0.9～1.0
The fuzzy membership function of each state of the quantitative index is halfA distribution function of a combination of trapezoid and triangle, as shown in FIG. 2, where the abscissa represents the relative degree of deterioration, p1,p2,p3,p4The relative degradation degrees are respectively corresponding to the endpoint values of the four state intervals, and the ordinate represents the membership degree. The correspondence between the relative deterioration degree and the operation state is shown in table 3.
The fuzzy membership function of the quantitative index of each state grade is as follows:
Figure BDA0002969894180000111
Figure BDA0002969894180000112
Figure BDA0002969894180000113
Figure BDA0002969894180000114
the membership degree calculation expression of the qualitative index is as follows:
Figure BDA0002969894180000115
by making expert scoring table, the score is 0-1]The survey results are sorted to obtain the membership degree of the qualitative index, wherein l is the membership degree, and l is the membership degreekAs a score value, n is the number of experts.
Specifically, the measured values of the quantitative indexes are normalized and then input into the membership function, and the membership value of each state quantity corresponding to each state grade is calculated through the membership function of the qualitative index, so that the fuzzy evaluation matrix is obtained.
Based on the steps, the fuzzy evaluation matrix between the state quantity of each part of the submarine cable and different state grades is obtained as follows:
R1＝[rij]14×4,i＝1,2,…,14,j＝1,2,3,4
R2＝[rij]15×4,i＝1,2,…,15,j＝1,2,3,4
R3＝[rij]15×4,i＝1,2,…,15,j＝1,2,3,4
R4＝[rij]4×4,i＝1,2,3,4,j＝1,2,3,4
R5＝[rij]8×4,i＝1,2,…,8,j＝1,2,3,4
in the formula, R1～R5And respectively corresponding to membership function of the state quantities of the submarine cable body, the submarine cable terminal, the accessory facility, the comprehensive protection relay and the submarine cable channel in the component layer under 4 state grades.
The fuzzy evaluation matrix is obtained as follows:
Figure BDA0002969894180000116
wherein R is a fuzzy evaluation matrix of each component, RiIs the fuzzy evaluation matrix of the ith state quantity in the fuzzy evaluation matrix R of each part, RijRepresents the ith State quantity Pair comment vjMembership of (c).
Step five: and obtaining the membership degree of each state grade of the submarine cable based on the comprehensive weight and the fuzzy evaluation matrix, and evaluating the state of the submarine cable by adopting a weighted average method.
Specifically, the membership degree of each state grade of the submarine cable comprises the membership degree of each part of the submarine cable and different state grades of the whole submarine cable:
membership degrees of different state grades of each part of the submarine cable:
Figure BDA0002969894180000121
where B represents a membership matrix of different state classes of a component, w ═ w1,w2,…,wn]An integrated weight matrix, w, representing the componentnIs the integral weight of the nth state quantity of the component, R represents the fuzzy evaluation matrix of the component, b1,b2,b3,b4Respectively representing the membership of the component to normal, attention, abnormality and serious membership.
Membership degrees of different state grades of the whole submarine cable:
Figure BDA0002969894180000122
wherein, WComponent part＝[W1,W2,…,W5]Respectively the comprehensive weight of each component in the component layer, specifically, the comprehensive weight of the component layer is calculated by adopting an improved analytic hierarchy process, B1～B5Membership degree matrix of 5 parts in different state grades, d1,d2,d3,d4Respectively representing the membership degrees of the whole submarine cable in normal, attention, abnormal and severe membership degrees.
Specifically, the membership degree of each state grade of the submarine cable is subjected to weighted average to obtain a submarine cable state evaluation result, the state grades are respectively given with scores 1,2, 3 and 4, and then the membership degree of the 4 states is subjected to weighted average according to the evaluation result to obtain the value of a state factor:
Figure BDA0002969894180000123
wherein V is a state factor, h is scores of 4 state grades, and k is a coefficient to be determined, and k is 1.
TABLE 4 State level and semantic description
Status rating SemanticsDescription of the invention
Is normal Failure with very low probability, and the next overhaul is recommended to be delayed
Attention is paid to When the operation is normal, the maintenance is recommended according to the original plan
Abnormality (S) The more possible abnormal operation is recommended to be overhauled as soon as possible after observation
Severe severity of disease Failure occurs with great probability, and immediate overhaul and maintenance are recommended
And comparing the state factor with the scores assigned by different state grades to obtain a submarine cable state evaluation result, wherein each state grade and semantic description are shown in a table 4.
The submarine cable state evaluation method based on subjective and objective combination empowerment obtains the evaluation conclusion of the submarine cable line health state, and enables workers to know the operation health condition of the submarine cable in time, so that the submarine cable state evaluation method is convenient to operate reasonably, overhaul, distribution management and the like.
It should be understood that the above-described embodiments of the present invention are merely examples for clearly illustrating the present invention, and are not intended to limit the embodiments of the present invention. Other variations and modifications will be apparent to persons skilled in the art in light of the above description. And are neither required nor exhaustive of all embodiments. Any modification, equivalent replacement, and improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the claims of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. A submarine cable state evaluation method based on subjective and objective combination weighting is characterized by comprising the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: acquiring panoramic data of submarine cable operation, selecting indexes affecting the health state of the submarine cable, and establishing an evaluation index system;
step two: determining subjective weight of each state quantity by adopting an improved analytic hierarchy process, and determining objective weight of each state quantity by adopting an entropy weight method;
step three: combining the subjective weight and the objective weight to calculate a comprehensive weight;
step four: determining the evaluated state grades, obtaining relative degradation degrees based on respective standards of the state quantities, obtaining fuzzy membership functions of the state grades of the state quantities, and constructing a fuzzy evaluation matrix;
step five: and obtaining the membership degree of each state grade of the submarine cable based on the comprehensive weight and the fuzzy evaluation matrix, and evaluating the state of the submarine cable by adopting a weighted average method.
2. The submarine cable state assessment method based on subjective-objective combination weighting according to claim 1, wherein in step one, the assessment index system is divided into three layers: the system comprises a target layer, a component layer and an index layer, wherein the target layer is used for comprehensively judging the overall operation health condition of the submarine cable, the component layer is used for judging and reflecting the operation health condition of each component of the submarine cable, and the index layer is used for reflecting the evaluation state quantity index corresponding to each component.
3. The submarine cable state assessment method based on subjective-objective combination empowerment according to claim 2, wherein the component layer comprises a submarine cable body, a submarine cable terminal, an accessory facility, a comprehensive protection relay and a submarine cable channel, and the index layer comprises state quantities consisting of family defects, operation patrols, preventive tests and online monitoring.
4. The submarine cable state assessment method based on subjective-objective combination weighting according to claim 3, wherein the state quantities comprise the following:
the state quantity of the submarine cable body comprises: temperature, disturbance, stress, commissioning time, overload operation, body deformation, landing section submarine cable, main insulation resistance test, main insulation withstand voltage test, sheath insulation resistance test, sheath tolerance capability, optical fiber attenuation test, outer protective layer grounding current, load overload and family defect;
the state quantities of the submarine cable terminal comprise: terminal identification appearance, terminal room, terminal lightning arrester, leakage ammeter appearance, terminal grounding system, terminal fixing part appearance, rain cover appearance, external insulation, sleeve sealing, damage of porcelain terminal porcelain bushing or supporting insulator, porcelain bushing dirt condition, terminal appearance, infrared temperature measurement of connecting part of terminal and metal part, infrared temperature measurement of sleeve body and family defects;
the state quantities of the attached facilities include: the appearance of the bracket, the grounding performance of the bracket, the appearance of a hoop, the appearance of a grounding box, the grounding state of a main wiring lead, the damage of the main grounding lead, the connectivity of the grounding box, the connectivity of a return wire, the damage of the return wire, fire prevention measures, a signboard, online monitoring equipment, the loss of auxiliary equipment, the loss of grounding equipment, an equipment wire clamp and the infrared temperature measurement of a connecting lead are carried out;
the state quantity of the comprehensive protection relay comprises: appearance, motion indicator, crush, electrical performance;
the state quantities of the submarine cable channel comprise: submarine cable buried depth, AIS ship recognition, submarine cable tube arrangement tube packing deformation, distance between laid submarine cables and other pipelines, submarine cable line protection area activity, submarine cable line protection area condition, submarine cable route detection and terminal station grounding grid grounding resistance abnormity.
5. The submarine cable state assessment method based on subjective-objective combination weighting according to claim 1, wherein in step two, the improved analytic hierarchy process for determining subjective weights of state quantities of submarine cables comprises:
1) selecting an exponential scale;
2) for n state quantities x1,x2…xnThe expert subjectively sorts the state quantities according to the mode that the importance degree is not reduced, and the priority relation among the state quantities is x1≥x2≥…≥xn；
3) The degree of importance of the neighboring state quantities is described by an exponential scale and is quantified as ci(i ═ 1,2, … n-1), a decision matrix C was constructed:
Figure FDA0002969894170000021
4) and (3) determining subjective weight:
Figure FDA0002969894170000022
wherein, anThe subjective weight value is the nth state quantity;
Figure FDA0002969894170000023
represents the product of all elements in the ith row in the matrix C;
the process of determining the objective weight of each state quantity of the submarine cable by the entropy weight method comprises the following steps:
1) sampling n groups of data, each group containing m state quantities, and making uijIs the value of the jth state quantity in the ith group of sampling data (i is 1,2, …, n; j is 1,2, … m);
2) respectively carrying out normalization processing on the positive indexes and the negative indexes;
for the forward indicator:
Figure FDA0002969894170000024
for the negative indicators:
Figure FDA0002969894170000031
3) calculating the weight of the jth state quantity in the ith group of data:
Figure FDA0002969894170000032
4) calculating the entropy of the j item state quantity:
Figure FDA0002969894170000033
5) calculating the objective weight of the jth state quantity:
Figure FDA0002969894170000034
wherein, betajIs the objective weight value of the jth state quantity.
6. The submarine cable state assessment method based on subjective-objective combination weighting according to claim 1, wherein in step three, the subjective weight and the objective weight are combined to calculate a comprehensive weight:
Figure FDA0002969894170000035
wherein, aiI th subjective weight, beta, determined for improved analytic hierarchy processiCorresponding objective weights, w, determined for the entropy weight methodiIs the integrated weight, and gamma is the variable weight coefficient.
7. The submarine cable state assessment method based on subjective-objective combination weighting according to claim 1, wherein in step four, the state grades are: normal v1Attention v2V abnormality v3Severe v44 status levels; the relative deterioration degree is more stable as the numerical value is smallerThe larger the type and value, the more stable the type and value, the value is in [0,1 ]]Within the range;
for the index which is more stable as the numerical value is smaller, the state quantity is normalized by the following formula:
Figure FDA0002969894170000036
for the index which is more stable as the numerical value is larger, the formula for normalizing the state quantity is as follows:
Figure FDA0002969894170000037
wherein Q is0Rated value for the nth state quantity, QmaxAnd QminIs the limit value of the nth state quantity, QiIs the measured data value.
8. The submarine cable state assessment method according to claim 1, wherein in step four, the fuzzy membership functions include quantitative index membership functions and qualitative membership functions;
the fuzzy membership function of each state of the quantitative index is a distribution function combining a half trapezoid and a triangle:
Figure FDA0002969894170000041
Figure FDA0002969894170000042
Figure FDA0002969894170000043
Figure FDA0002969894170000044
the membership calculation expression of the qualitative index is as follows:
Figure FDA0002969894170000045
by making expert scoring table, the score is 0-1]The survey results are sorted to obtain the membership degree of the qualitative index, wherein l is the membership degree, and l is the membership degreekAs a score value, n is the number of experts.
9. The submarine cable state assessment method according to claim 1, wherein in step four, the measured values of the quantitative indicators are normalized and then input into the membership function, and the membership values of the state quantities corresponding to the state levels are calculated through the membership function of the qualitative indicators, so as to obtain a fuzzy evaluation matrix:
Figure FDA0002969894170000046
wherein R is a fuzzy evaluation matrix of each component, RiIs the fuzzy evaluation matrix of the ith state quantity in the fuzzy evaluation matrix R of each part, RijRepresents the ith State quantity Pair comment vjMembership of (c).
10. The submarine cable state assessment method based on subjective and objective combination weighting according to claim 1, wherein in step five, the membership of each state level of the submarine cable comprises the membership of each part of the submarine cable and the overall different state levels:
membership degrees of different state grades of each part of the submarine cable:
Figure FDA0002969894170000047
membership degrees of different state grades of the whole submarine cable:
Figure FDA0002969894170000051
and obtaining a submarine cable state evaluation result by adopting a weighted average method according to the membership degree of each state grade of the submarine cable.
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