CN112862218A - Power equipment out-of-service management system - Google Patents
Power equipment out-of-service management system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses an electric power equipment out-of-service management system, which comprises a monitoring unit, an analysis unit and a management unit, wherein the monitoring unit is used for monitoring the power equipment out-of-service management; the monitoring unit is used for monitoring the service life of the power equipment and outputting the information of the power equipment which is out of service for a long time; the analysis unit is used for receiving the information of the power equipment in the extended service, obtaining the fault probability and the fault risk value of the power equipment in the extended service according to the fault probability prediction model and the fault risk evaluation model, and sequencing the product of the fault probability and the fault risk value to obtain a management sequence list of the power equipment in the extended service; and the management unit is used for receiving the management sequence list and outputting an annual maintenance plan of the power equipment in service in excess according to the management sequence list. According to the system, the failure probability prediction and the failure consequence severity prediction are carried out on the power equipment in service for the overdue period, and the equipment replacement and maintenance are correspondingly arranged according to the prediction result, so that the equipment management efficiency can be effectively improved, and the safe and stable operation of the power system is ensured.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of equipment management, in particular to an electric power equipment out-of-service management system.
Background
In the relevant regulations of the power equipment out-of-service management, the scheduled inspection and replacement of the equipment need to be correspondingly arranged according to the service lives of different types of power equipment.
Because the power equipment in live-line operation can not be overhauled and changed in a power failure mode at any time, the power equipment is high in price and various in variety, all equipment spare parts can not be prepared in a warehouse for being changed at any time, the service life of each power equipment is mainly checked manually in the management of the power equipment in the power equipment out-of-service mode at present, equipment replacement purchase application and equipment power failure application are submitted according to the checking result, and maintainers are arranged to cooperate for checking and replacing, the management mode is low in efficiency, the condition that the power equipment is out-of-service but can not be replaced frequently occurs, and the safe operation of the power equipment is difficult to guarantee.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the technical problems, the invention provides an overdimension management system for power equipment, which can effectively improve the equipment management efficiency and ensure the safe operation of a power system by predicting the fault probability and the severity of fault consequences of the overdimension power equipment and arranging equipment replacement and maintenance according to the prediction result.
The invention provides an electric power equipment out-of-service management system, which comprises:
the monitoring unit is used for monitoring the service life of the power equipment and outputting the information of the power equipment which is out of service for a long time;
the analysis unit is used for receiving the information of the power equipment in the extended service, obtaining the fault probability and the fault risk value of the power equipment in the extended service according to a preset equipment fault probability prediction model and an equipment fault risk evaluation model, and sequencing the product value of the fault probability and the fault risk value to obtain a management sequence list of the power equipment in the extended service;
and the management unit is used for receiving the management sequence list and outputting the annual maintenance plan of the power equipment in the overdue service according to the management sequence list.
Optionally, the power equipment which is out of service currently comprises power equipment which is out of service currently and power equipment of which the remaining service life is less than one year.
Optionally, the device failure probability prediction model is determined according to basic information and maintenance information of the power device.
Optionally, the equipment failure probability prediction model includes a logistic regression model.
Optionally, the basic information includes: the device position, the device service life and the device running state; the maintenance information includes: the running time of the equipment on the network, the overhaul frequency of the equipment and the fault frequency of the equipment.
Optionally, the fault risk assessment model of the power equipment is determined according to fault information of the power equipment and power system information.
Optionally, the fault information of the power device includes: loss load and user property caused by equipment failure, transformer substation voltage loss number and line trip number; the power system information includes: the system comprises power grid structure information, static safety analysis information of a power system and transient stability analysis information of the power system.
Optionally, the management sequence list of the power equipment which is out of service for the extended period is used for preferentially replacing the power equipment with high failure probability.
Optionally, the management unit further includes an equipment replacement unit, configured to generate an equipment replacement application table according to the received annual maintenance schedule of the power equipment in out-of-service.
Optionally, the management unit further includes an equipment maintenance unit, configured to generate an equipment maintenance application table according to the received annual maintenance plan of the power equipment in extended service.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the power equipment out-of-service management system provided by the invention can efficiently manage the power equipment out-of-service and reduce the operation risk of a power grid by predicting the fault probability and the fault consequence severity of the power equipment out-of-service and namely out-of-service and arranging the replacement and maintenance of the out-of-service power equipment according to the prediction result.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solution of the present invention, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments will be briefly described below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious for those skilled in the art that other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without creative efforts.
Fig. 1 is a schematic structural diagram of an electric power equipment out-of-service management system provided in an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, and not all of the embodiments. All other embodiments, which can be derived by a person skilled in the art from the embodiments given herein without making any creative effort, shall fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
It should be understood that the step numbers used herein are for convenience of description only and are not intended as limitations on the order in which the steps are performed.
It is to be understood that the terminology used in the description of the invention herein is for the purpose of describing particular embodiments only and is not intended to be limiting of the invention. As used in the specification of the present invention and the appended claims, the singular forms "a," "an," and "the" are intended to include the plural forms as well, unless the context clearly indicates otherwise.
The terms "comprises" and "comprising" indicate the presence of the described features, integers, steps, operations, elements, and/or components, but do not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other features, integers, steps, operations, elements, components, and/or groups thereof.
The term "and/or" refers to and includes any and all possible combinations of one or more of the associated listed items.
As shown in fig. 1, an embodiment of the present invention provides an out-of-service management system for power equipment, which specifically includes a monitoring unit 101, an analysis unit 102, and a management unit 103.
The monitoring unit 101 is used for monitoring the service life of the power equipment and outputting the information of the power equipment which is in service for an extended period.
In one embodiment, the power devices that are out of service may include power devices that are currently out of service and power devices that have a remaining age of less than one year.
For different types of power equipment, the service lives of the power equipment are different, and according to relevant regulations of power equipment management, the overdimensioned equipment after the service lives are reached needs to be overhauled and replaced on time.
According to the embodiment, the power equipment which is in service for the exceeding period is managed by taking the year as a period, so that each power equipment which is in service for the exceeding period can be accurately evaluated, and omission is avoided.
The analysis unit 102 is configured to receive information of the power equipment in active service, obtain a fault probability and a fault risk value of the power equipment in active service according to a preset equipment fault probability prediction model and an equipment fault risk assessment model, sort a value obtained by multiplying the fault probability and the fault risk value, and obtain a management sequence list of the power equipment in active service.
In the power system, the power equipment which is in live operation cannot be overhauled and replaced at any time in a power failure mode, so that the embodiment of the invention utilizes the relevant information of the power equipment in the extended service to carry out modeling, judges the specific management plan of the power equipment in the extended service according to the prediction result of the model and ensures the stable operation of the system.
In one embodiment, the device failure probability prediction model is determined according to basic information and maintenance information of the power device, and may specifically include a logistic regression model.
The basic information comprises the position of the equipment, the service life of the equipment and the running state of the equipment; the maintenance information comprises the running time of the equipment on the network, the overhaul times of the equipment and the failure times of the equipment.
Because the preset service life of the power equipment is different from the actual service life of the equipment, the places where the power equipment is located are different and are affected by different environments (such as indoor air conditioner rooms, outdoor high-temperature freezing, seaside saline-alkali corrosion and other environments), the service life of the equipment is greatly different, and in addition, the service lives of different manufacturers, different models and different types of equipment are also different, so that not all power equipment which is in service for a long time can be replaced immediately, but the equipment which is longer in the time is more urgently needed to be replaced.
In this embodiment, an analysis model may be created and the failure probability of the power equipment may be determined through the power equipment basic management information on the power industry asset management system and the power equipment maintenance information on the power grid operation management system.
Specifically, the device classification, the device type, the device basic information, the device position, the device model, the manufacturer, the production date, the installation manufacturer, the operation and maintenance unit and the device out-of-service time of the power device can be imported through the power device basic management information on the asset management system, and the power device on-grid operation time, the device overhaul frequency and the device fault frequency can be imported through the power grid operation management system.
For different equipment management requirements, the data fields can be selected in a customized mode to ensure the accuracy of the equipment failure prediction result.
The imported data needs to be cleaned, and the method specifically comprises the steps of checking the data consistency of an asset management system and a power grid operation management system, repairing abnormal values, filling missing values and deleting repeated values.
The missing value filling method comprises the following steps: filling continuous data containing time information, such as running duration, by adopting a sliding average method; filling continuous data which do not contain time information by adopting an averaging method; and filling with a previous value for an uncertain missing value.
In one embodiment, after the data cleaning is completed, the following method can be used to perform further eigenvalue division on the partially dispersed data.
Such as: according to the position of the power equipment, two characteristic values of indoor equipment and outdoor equipment are established, wherein for the outdoor equipment, the characteristic values of different scenes such as seasides (saline-alkali corrosion), mountainous areas (freezing) and the like are further established according to the environment of the equipment so as to avoid prediction errors caused by external factors; data can be classified into normal operation, device abnormality, general defect, emergency defect, and major defect according to the operation state of the power device.
In this embodiment, after the processing flow of importing data is completed, a logistic regression model is selected for training to quantitatively predict the probability of the power equipment failure.
After the fault probability of each power equipment in service in the extended period is obtained through the output result of the prediction model, the power equipment in service in the extended period is ranked from high to low according to the fault probability, and the power equipment in service in the extended period with high fault probability is preferentially arranged for maintenance and replacement.
In some embodiments, the predicted power equipment failure may be defined as two classes, and the model may be selected from two classification methods such as decision trees, random forests, naive bayes, logistic regression, support vector machines, and artificial neural networks for training.
In one embodiment, the fault risk assessment model of the power equipment is determined according to fault information of the power equipment and power system information, wherein the fault information of the power equipment comprises loss load and user properties caused by equipment faults, a transformer substation voltage loss number and a line trip number; the electric power system information comprises electric network structure information, electric power system static safety analysis information and electric power system transient stability analysis information.
The loss caused by the fault is very different for different power equipment, and in one specific embodiment, the loss load caused by the equipment fault and the user property, the number of the users, the transformer substation voltage loss number and the line trip number can be selected for risk assessment, wherein the user property comprises a general load, an important urban load, a special grade and a first-grade important user.
In the embodiment, the risk quantitative evaluation can be performed on the severity of the fault consequence of the power equipment by combining the current system status and power grid structure analysis, power electric quantity balance analysis, system power flow and reactive voltage analysis, system static safety analysis, system transient stability analysis and system dynamic (small interference) stability analysis data to obtain a fault risk value, then the fault risk value is standardized and normalized, the power equipment in service for overdue service is ranked from high to low according to the fault risk value, the power equipment in service for overdue service with high fault risk degree is preferentially arranged to be repaired and replaced, and the management cost is reduced.
In one embodiment, the dynamic prediction of the failure probability and the severity of the failure consequence of the power equipment can be performed according to the operating states of the power equipment and the power grid, and the management plan of the power equipment which is out of service for a long time is adjusted in time to ensure the stable operation of the power equipment.
In one embodiment, the management order list of the power equipment which is out of service is used for preferentially replacing the power equipment with high fault probability.
In the embodiment, the failure probability predicted value of the power equipment is multiplied by the failure risk value of the power equipment, the multiplication results are ranked from high to low to obtain a management sequence list of the power equipment which is in service for a long time, and replacement and maintenance work of each power equipment is arranged according to the management sequence list.
The management unit 103 is configured to receive a management sequence list of the power equipment in active service, and output an annual maintenance schedule of the power equipment in active service according to the management sequence list.
In a specific embodiment, the management unit 103 further includes an equipment replacement unit 1031, configured to generate an equipment replacement application table according to the received annual maintenance schedule of the power equipment in extended service.
Because of the wide variety and large quantity of electric power equipment, part of the equipment has large volume and high price, and spare parts cannot be prepared for all the electric power equipment in a warehouse for replacement at any time.
In the embodiment, a capital plan for replacing the power equipment is applied according to an annual overhaul plan, and equipment manufacturers are connected to order the equipment, so that the power equipment meeting the conditions and in service for exceeding the service life can be replaced on time, the utilization rate of the power equipment is improved, the cost is reduced, and the influence on the normal operation of a power system is avoided.
In a specific embodiment, the management unit 103 further includes an equipment overhaul unit 1032 configured to generate an equipment overhaul application form according to the received annual overhaul plan of the overdimensioned power equipment.
The main power line crossing the province is long and the related regions are wide, and the regular inspection or replacement work of one power device can be completed by matching professional personnel who organize all regions by a plurality of power supply offices at the same time.
In this embodiment, an equipment overhaul application table may be generated according to the annual overhaul plan for scheduling overhaul work for the relevant power equipment.
The power supply bureau of the related region can arrange corresponding power equipment operation and maintenance personnel in advance to carry out the maintenance of the power equipment in service for the extended period according to the content of the equipment maintenance application table, thereby improving the personnel scheduling efficiency and ensuring that the maintenance work is completed on time according to the amount.
The power equipment out-of-service management system provided by the embodiment of the invention can be used for predicting the fault probability and the fault consequence severity by combining the service life of the power equipment, and arranging the power failure plan, the equipment purchase plan and the maintenance plan in advance according to the prediction result so as to complete the scheduled inspection and replacement of the power equipment on time, thereby effectively reducing the evaluation error brought by manual management, improving the management efficiency and reducing the operation risk of a power grid.
It will be understood by those skilled in the art that all or part of the processes of the methods of the above embodiments may be implemented by a computer program, which may be stored in a computer-readable storage medium, and may include the processes of the embodiments of the methods when executed. The storage medium may be a magnetic disk, an optical disk, a Read-Only Memory (ROM), a Random Access Memory (RAM), or the like.
While the foregoing is directed to the preferred embodiment of the present invention, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes and modifications may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.
Claims (10)
1. The utility model provides a power equipment management system that is out of service for a long time which characterized in that includes:
the monitoring unit is used for monitoring the service life of the power equipment and outputting the information of the power equipment which is out of service for a long time;
the analysis unit is used for receiving the information of the power equipment in the extended service, obtaining the fault probability and the fault risk value of the power equipment in the extended service according to a preset equipment fault probability prediction model and an equipment fault risk evaluation model, and sequencing the product value of the fault probability and the fault risk value to obtain a management sequence list of the power equipment in the extended service;
and the management unit is used for receiving the management sequence list and outputting the annual maintenance plan of the power equipment in the overdue service according to the management sequence list.
2. The power equipment out-of-service management system of claim 1, wherein the out-of-service power equipment comprises power equipment that is currently out-of-service and power equipment that has a remaining age of less than one year.
3. The power equipment out-of-service management system of claim 1, wherein the equipment failure probability prediction model is determined from basic information and maintenance information of power equipment.
4. The power equipment out-of-service management system of claim 3, wherein the equipment failure probability prediction model comprises a logistic regression model.
5. The power equipment out-of-service management system of claim 3, wherein the base information comprises: the device position, the device service life and the device running state;
the maintenance information includes: the running time of the equipment on the network, the overhaul frequency of the equipment and the fault frequency of the equipment.
6. The power equipment out-of-service management system of claim 1, wherein the fault risk assessment model of the power equipment is determined according to fault information of the power equipment and power system information.
7. The power equipment out-of-service management system of claim 6,
the fault information of the power equipment includes: loss load and user property caused by equipment failure, transformer substation voltage loss number and line trip number;
the power system information includes: the system comprises power grid structure information, static safety analysis information of a power system and transient stability analysis information of the power system.
8. The power equipment out-of-service management system according to claim 1, wherein the management sequence list of the out-of-service power equipment is used for preferentially replacing power equipment with high failure probability.
9. The power equipment out-of-service management system of claim 1, wherein the management unit further comprises:
and the equipment replacing unit is used for generating an equipment replacing application table according to the received annual maintenance plan of the power equipment in the overdue service.
10. The power equipment out-of-service management system of claim 1, wherein the management unit further comprises:
and the equipment maintenance unit is used for generating an equipment maintenance application table according to the received annual maintenance plan of the power equipment in the overdue service.
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| CN202110288230.2A CN112862218A (en) | 2021-03-17 | 2021-03-17 | Power equipment out-of-service management system |
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| CN202110288230.2A CN112862218A (en) | 2021-03-17 | 2021-03-17 | Power equipment out-of-service management system |
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| CN113987960A (en) * | 2021-11-22 | 2022-01-28 | 南方电网数字电网研究院有限公司 | Power grid equipment monitoring system and method based on big data |
| CN115293467A (en) * | 2022-10-08 | 2022-11-04 | 成都飞机工业（集团）有限责任公司 | Product manufacturing overdue risk prediction method, device, equipment and medium |
| CN116664100A (en) * | 2023-05-09 | 2023-08-29 | 江苏盛达智慧科技信息有限公司 | BIM+AI-based intelligent operation and maintenance management system |
| CN117057513A (en) * | 2023-10-11 | 2023-11-14 | 山东建筑大学 | Intelligent park is with control management system based on internet |
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