CN112801518A - Jellyfish disaster risk assessment method - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of jellyfish disaster assessment, in particular to a jellyfish disaster risk assessment method, wherein a method of multiplying a risk degree value and a risk degree value is adopted in the risk assessment process to obtain a specific value of the risk degree, the risk degree is the height and the strength of the possibility of occurrence, the assessment index of the risk degree comprises a disaster-causing factor risk degree and a pregnant disaster factor risk degree, the vulnerability refers to the assessment of the damage probability of the jellyfish disaster-bearing factor and the damage probability of the damage probability, the jellyfish species existing in the sea area are analyzed, the number of the jellyfish in a period of time in the future is predicted by adopting a model establishment method according to the conditions of temperature, plankton, growth foundation, ocean current and the like in the current investigation environment, the risk degree is further assessed and early warning can be carried out on the jellyfish disaster, early warning is discovered in the early stage, and the influence of jellyfish disasters is reduced as much as possible.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of jellyfish disaster assessment, in particular to a jellyfish disaster risk assessment method.
Background
At present, no relevant report aiming at risk evaluation of jellyfish disasters exists at home and abroad, and by using other geological disaster risk evaluation and zoning research such as red tide disaster risks, storm tide disaster risk zoning, gale disaster risks and the like for reference, all index systems are screened under the condition of ensuring that data is available, but the evaluation of the risk of the ecological disaster needs to be established on the basis of understanding the cause of the disaster, the occurrence process of the disaster and relevant environmental factors. However, in the case of jellyfish disasters, the jellyfish source, the disaster outbreak mechanism, the key control factor, the jellyfish life habit and other aspects are all studied, and some research results exist, but the actual verification is still lacked in the natural sea area, so that the method for assessing the risk of the jellyfish disaster is provided for solving the problems.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a jellyfish disaster risk assessment method to solve the problems in the background technology.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides the following technical scheme:
a jellyfish disaster risk assessment method is characterized in that a method of multiplying a risk degree value and a risk degree value is adopted in a risk assessment process to obtain a specific value of the risk degree, wherein the risk degree is the occurrence probability and the intensity, assessment indexes of the risk degree comprise a disaster-causing factor risk degree and a disaster-pregnant factor risk degree, and the vulnerability indicates the assessment of the number of damage opportunities of a disaster-bearing body factor subjected to jellyfish disasters and the damage difficulty of the damage opportunities.
Preferably, the disaster-causing factors comprise species, density and umbrella diameter of the jellyfish, the toxicity of the jellyfish is known through species investigation, the pregnancy disaster factors are the podocyst reproduction and the transverse fissure reproduction of the jellyfish, namely the growth and the drifting environmental factors of the jellyfish, and the main influencing factors comprise temperature, humidity, nutrition regulation and hydrodynamic flow velocity and direction.
Preferably, the vulnerability is a factor which is easily influenced by disasters in the sea area use type when the jellyfish disasters occur, mainly comprises a sea for travel and entertainment, a sea for fishery, an industrial sea, a marine ecosystem and the like, and is subdivided into indexes such as mariculture, fishery fishing, a bathing place, a vacation area, coastal industry, ports, a protection area, an ecosystem and the like.
Preferably, the risk assessment is carried out by utilizing numerical model research, the quantitative continuity description is carried out on the physical process, the biological process and the interaction thereof by utilizing a physical and biological coupling model, the characteristic influence of environmental factors on the distribution, the density and the like of the jellyfish is analyzed, and the source tracing, the drift prediction and the quantification are carried out on the jellyfish, and the method comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: early warning is carried out, a model is built according to changes of key environmental factors of key sea areas and the like by combining the study of the life history and influence factors of jellyfish and sea area historical investigation and supplementary investigation data, the seasonal distribution and the quantity of jellyfish are predicted, and the possibility, the abundance and the distribution characteristics of jellyfish outbreak are analyzed;
step two: performing supplementary investigation, performing investigation in key sea areas, particularly sea areas adjacent to a nuclear power intake, investigating environmental factors and the types of the existing jellyfishes, and constructing a model;
step three: the existing data show that the jellyfishes can keep gathering or prevent grounding by adjusting the movement direction of the jellyfishes and adopting a particle tracing method to investigate the hydrodynamic condition of the sea area, mainly the tide, wind and ocean current of the sea area, and the influence of hydrodynamic force on the drift of the jellyfishes is predicted;
step four: combining with field survey, carrying out analysis and prediction on big data in a laboratory, and combining with monitoring data and indoor experimental data, establishing quantitative prediction and forecast;
step five: and evaluating the risk coefficient and the vulnerability coefficient of the jellyfish by utilizing the predicted jellyfish quantity in different time periods, and further multiplying the coefficients to obtain the final risk degree.
Preferably, the temperature of 10-15 ℃ is a key temperature for asexual development of the jellyfish in the environmental factors, and the jellyfish can grow and reproduce faster in the temperature.
Preferably, among the environmental factors, when the density of the small zooplankton is 20000-.
Preferably, among the environmental factors, the bay scallop shell is most suitable for the proliferation of hydranth, and then the bay scallop shell is provided with a PVC plate, a net clothing and a wood plate, wherein the hydranth grows and develops into small individual jellyfish, and the number of the bay scallop shell, the PVC plate, the net clothing and the wood plate is more than that of the small individual jellyfish, so that the jellyfish outbreak is easily caused.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
in the invention, the jellyfish species in the sea area are analyzed, the number of jellyfishes in a period of time in the future is predicted by combining the conditions of temperature, plankton, growth foundation, ocean current and the like in the conventional environment for investigation, a model establishing method is adopted, the risk degree is further evaluated, the jellyfish disaster can be early warned, the influence of the jellyfish disaster can be reduced as much as possible by early finding and early reminding, the condition combining the local conditions is investigated on the spot, and the provided data is more accurate.
Detailed Description
Example 1:
the invention provides a technical scheme that:
a jellyfish disaster risk assessment method is characterized in that a method of multiplying a risk degree value and a risk degree value is adopted in a risk assessment process to obtain a specific value of the risk degree, wherein the risk degree is the occurrence probability and the intensity, assessment indexes of the risk degree comprise a disaster-causing factor risk degree and a disaster-pregnant factor risk degree, and the vulnerability indicates the assessment of the number of damage opportunities of a disaster-bearing body factor subjected to jellyfish disasters and the damage difficulty of the damage opportunities.
The disaster-causing factors comprise the species, density and diameter of the jellyfishes, the toxicity of the jellyfishes is obtained through species investigation, the pregnancy disaster-causing factors are the podocyst reproduction and the transverse fissure reproduction of the jellyfishes, namely the environmental factors of the growth and the drift of the jellyfishes, and the main influencing factors comprise the temperature, the humidity, the nutrition regulation and the flow velocity and the flow direction of hydrodynamic force.
The vulnerability is a factor which is easily influenced by disasters in the sea area use types when the jellyfish disasters occur, mainly comprises a sea for travel and entertainment, a sea for fishery, an industrial sea, a marine ecosystem and the like, and is subdivided into indexes such as mariculture, fishery fishing, a bathing place, a vacation area, coastal industry, ports, a protection area, an ecosystem and the like.
The method comprises the following steps of carrying out risk assessment by utilizing numerical model research, carrying out quantitative continuity description on a physical process, a biological process and interaction thereof by utilizing a physical and biological coupling model, analyzing the characteristic influence of environmental factors on jellyfish distribution, density and the like, and carrying out source tracing, drift prediction and quantification on the jellyfish, and comprises the following steps of:
the method comprises the following steps: early warning is carried out, a model is built according to changes of key environmental factors of key sea areas and the like by combining the study of the life history and influence factors of jellyfish and sea area historical investigation and supplementary investigation data, the seasonal distribution and the quantity of jellyfish are predicted, and the possibility, the abundance and the distribution characteristics of jellyfish outbreak are analyzed;
step two: performing supplementary investigation, performing investigation in key sea areas, particularly sea areas adjacent to a nuclear power intake, investigating environmental factors and the types of the existing jellyfishes, and constructing a model;
step three: the existing data show that the jellyfishes can keep gathering or prevent grounding by adjusting the movement direction of the jellyfishes and adopting a particle tracing method to investigate the hydrodynamic condition of the sea area, mainly the tide, wind and ocean current of the sea area, and the influence of hydrodynamic force on the drift of the jellyfishes is predicted;
step four: combining with field survey, carrying out analysis and prediction on big data in a laboratory, and combining with monitoring data and indoor experimental data, establishing quantitative prediction and forecast;
step five: and evaluating the risk coefficient and the vulnerability coefficient of the jellyfish by utilizing the predicted jellyfish quantity in different time periods, and further multiplying the coefficients to obtain the final risk degree.
Among the environmental factors, the temperature of 10-15 ℃ is the key temperature for the apomictic development of the jellyfish, and the growth and the propagation of the jellyfish are faster in the temperature; among the environmental factors, when the density of the small zooplankton is 20000-; among the environmental factors, the bay scallop shell is most suitable for proliferation of hydranth, and the PVC plate, the netting and the wood plate are adopted, the hydranth grows to be a small individual jellyfish, when the number of the bay scallop shell, the PVC plate, the netting and the wood plate is large, outbreak of the jellyfish is easily caused, the local condition is considered and combined, the surrounding environment and various factors of growth of the jellyfish are combined, the provided data are more accurate, and the risk of the jellyfish disaster can be accurately evaluated.
The principles and embodiments of the present invention are explained herein using specific examples, which are presented only to assist in understanding the method and its core concepts of the present invention. The foregoing is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it should be noted that there are objectively infinite specific structures due to the limited character expressions, and it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that a plurality of modifications, decorations or changes may be made without departing from the principle of the present invention, and the technical features described above may be combined in a suitable manner; such modifications, variations, combinations, or adaptations of the invention using its spirit and scope, as defined by the claims, may be directed to other uses and embodiments.
Claims (7)
1. A risk assessment method for jellyfish disaster is characterized by comprising the following steps: in the risk evaluation process, a method of multiplying a risk degree value by a risk degree value is adopted to obtain a specific value of the risk degree, wherein the risk degree is the height and the intensity of the occurrence probability, the evaluation indexes of the risk degree comprise a disaster-causing factor risk degree and a pregnancy disaster factor risk degree, and the vulnerability refers to the evaluation of the number of damage opportunities of a disaster-bearing body factor suffering from jellyfish disasters and the difficulty of damage.
2. The method for assessing risk of jellyfish disaster according to claim 1, wherein: the disaster-causing factors comprise the species, density and diameter of the jellyfishes, the toxicity of the jellyfishes is obtained through species investigation, the pregnancy disaster-causing factors are the podocyst reproduction and the transverse fissure reproduction of the jellyfishes, namely the environmental factors of the growth and the drift of the jellyfishes, and the main influencing factors comprise the temperature, the humidity, the nutrition regulation and the flow velocity and the flow direction of hydrodynamic force.
3. The method for assessing risk of jellyfish disaster according to claim 1, wherein: the vulnerability is a factor which is easily influenced by disasters in the sea area use types when the jellyfish disasters occur, mainly comprises a sea for travel and entertainment, a sea for fishery, an industrial sea, a marine ecosystem and the like, and is subdivided into indexes such as mariculture, fishery fishing, a bathing place, a vacation area, coastal industry, ports, a protection area, an ecosystem and the like.
4. The method for assessing risk of jellyfish disaster according to claim 1, wherein: the method comprises the following steps of carrying out risk assessment by utilizing numerical model research, carrying out quantitative continuity description on a physical process, a biological process and interaction thereof by utilizing a physical and biological coupling model, analyzing the characteristic influence of environmental factors on jellyfish distribution, density and the like, and carrying out source tracing, drift prediction and quantification on the jellyfish, and comprises the following steps of:
the method comprises the following steps: early warning is carried out, a model is built according to changes of key environmental factors of key sea areas and the like by combining the study of the life history and influence factors of jellyfish and sea area historical investigation and supplementary investigation data, the seasonal distribution and the quantity of jellyfish are predicted, and the possibility, the abundance and the distribution characteristics of jellyfish outbreak are analyzed;
step two: performing supplementary investigation, performing investigation in key sea areas, particularly sea areas adjacent to a nuclear power intake, investigating environmental factors and the types of the existing jellyfishes, and constructing a model;
step three: the existing data show that the jellyfishes can keep gathering or prevent grounding by adjusting the movement direction of the jellyfishes and adopting a particle tracing method to investigate the hydrodynamic condition of the sea area, mainly the tide, wind and ocean current of the sea area, and the influence of hydrodynamic force on the drift of the jellyfishes is predicted;
step four: combining with field survey, carrying out analysis and prediction on big data in a laboratory, and combining with monitoring data and indoor experimental data, establishing quantitative prediction and forecast;
step five: and evaluating the risk coefficient and the vulnerability coefficient of the jellyfish by utilizing the predicted jellyfish quantity in different time periods, and further multiplying the coefficients to obtain the final risk degree.
5. The method for assessing risk of jellyfish disaster according to claim 4, wherein: the temperature of 10-15 ℃ is the key temperature for asexual development of the jellyfish in the environmental factors, and the jellyfish can grow and propagate faster in the temperature.
6. The method for assessing risk of jellyfish disaster according to claim 4, wherein: the density of the small zooplankton is 20000-25000 pieces/m3It is an important factor for supporting the outbreak of the jellyfish.
7. The method for assessing risk of jellyfish disaster according to claim 4, wherein: in the environmental factors, the bay scallop shell is most suitable for the proliferation of hydranth, and then the PVC plate, the netting and the wood plate are used, the hydranth grows to be a small individual jellyfish, and when the number of the bay scallop shell, the PVC plate, the netting and the wood plate is large, the outbreak of the jellyfish is easily caused.
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Cited By (3)
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| CN116468275A (en) * | 2023-04-21 | 2023-07-21 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Water intake risk assessment method considering disaster-causing biological movement characteristics and rhythm behaviors |
| CN117113796A (en) * | 2023-10-24 | 2023-11-24 | 国家海洋局北海预报中心((国家海洋局青岛海洋预报台)(国家海洋局青岛海洋环境监测中心站)) | Large jellyfish medium-term drift set forecasting method considering autonomous movement |
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Cited By (5)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN113420977A (en) * | 2021-06-18 | 2021-09-21 | 中国水产科学研究院黄海水产研究所 | Risk quantitative evaluation method for ecological influence of sudden jellyfish on marine swimming animals |
| CN116468275A (en) * | 2023-04-21 | 2023-07-21 | 中国水利水电科学研究院 | Water intake risk assessment method considering disaster-causing biological movement characteristics and rhythm behaviors |
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| CN117113796A (en) * | 2023-10-24 | 2023-11-24 | 国家海洋局北海预报中心((国家海洋局青岛海洋预报台)(国家海洋局青岛海洋环境监测中心站)) | Large jellyfish medium-term drift set forecasting method considering autonomous movement |
| CN117113796B (en) * | 2023-10-24 | 2024-02-27 | 国家海洋局北海预报中心((国家海洋局青岛海洋预报台)(国家海洋局青岛海洋环境监测中心站)) | Large jellyfish medium-term drift set forecasting method considering autonomous movement |
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