CN112733391A - Circuit breaker closing time estimation method based on distance power inverse ratio method - Google Patents
Circuit breaker closing time estimation method based on distance power inverse ratio method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of circuit breakers, in particular to a circuit breaker closing time estimation method based on a distance power inverse ratio method, which comprises the following steps of: analyzing the closing process of the circuit breaker to obtain that the closing of the circuit breaker has mechanical dispersity; calculating an expected estimation value of a distribution function of the next closing time of the circuit breaker according to a distance power inverse ratio method; calculating a variance estimation value of a distribution function of the next closing time of the circuit breaker according to a distance power inverse ratio method; and modeling the closing time of the circuit breaker according to the expected estimated value and the variance estimated value and a normal distribution model. According to the method, the uncertainty of the mechanical dispersity of the circuit breaker is overcome by introducing a normal distribution function in calculation so as to improve the accuracy of the prediction of the closing time; the method estimates the closing time of the circuit breaker by adopting the inverse ratio of distance power method for the first time, reasonably improves the proportion of recent data, and has higher feasibility and accuracy.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of circuit breakers, in particular to a circuit breaker closing time estimation method based on a distance power inverse ratio method.
Background
The direct current transmission has the advantages of large transmission power, low line cost, good control performance and the like, is an important means for high-voltage, large-capacity and long-distance power transmission and asynchronous networking in developed countries at present, and large-scale application of high-voltage direct current transmission is a necessary choice when large-scale western and east power transmission is realized in China. The alternating current filter is one of important devices in a direct current transmission system, and not only provides reactive power required by current conversion, but also can filter harmonic waves.
The phase selection closing device can control the circuit breaker to perform closing operation at a proper time, and effectively shortens the transient process generated by the input of the filter, so that the existing alternating current filter mostly adopts the circuit breaker with the phase selection closing function. The reasonable prediction of the next switching-on time is crucial to the phase selection switching-on technology, the circuit breaker has certain action time dispersity due to the difference between the manufacturing process and the level, the mechanical dispersity of the circuit breaker can change continuously along with the time and the external environment, the switching-on speed dispersity of the circuit breaker of the filter field of the commutation station is evaluated only according to test data when the circuit breaker leaves a factory, certain limitations exist, and the evaluation method is difficult to implement in principle. The existing circuit breaker closing time estimation mainly comprises two types, the first type is simply to calculate the average value of the existing data for estimation, the method cannot consider the characteristic that the mechanical dispersity of the circuit breaker can change along with the time, and the accuracy is low; and the second method is to predict by taking the external environment as a variable in principle, and the method has low feasibility due to excessive related variables and cannot consider all influence factors, so that the accuracy of the prediction result is low.
Therefore, in order to evaluate the closing time of the circuit breaker more accurately, a new method for estimating the closing time of the circuit breaker needs to be designed.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to solve at least one technical problem in the prior art and provides a method for estimating the closing time of a circuit breaker based on a distance inverse power ratio method.
In order to achieve the purpose, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: a method for estimating the closing time of a circuit breaker based on a distance inverse power ratio method comprises the following steps:
step 1, analyzing the closing process of the circuit breaker to obtain that the closing of the circuit breaker has mechanical dispersity, wherein the closing time of the circuit breaker at each time is random time, and the closing time of the circuit breaker is regarded as obeying normal distribution;
step 2, calculating an expected estimation value of a distribution function of the next closing time of the circuit breaker according to a distance power inverse ratio method; the inverse distance power ratio method is expressed by the following equation:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
for the purpose of the estimation of the value,
is the ith sample;
the distance between the ith sample and the estimated sample is taken; p is the power of the distance; n is a positive integer;
step 3, calculating a variance estimation value of a distribution function of the next closing time of the circuit breaker according to a distance power inverse ratio method;
and 4, modeling the closing time of the circuit breaker according to the expected estimated value and the variance estimated value and a normal distribution model to obtain a probability distribution function of the closing time of the circuit breaker.
Further, in step 2, the desired estimation valueμ n The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,μ n is a desired estimate of the nth closing time,
for the expectation of the ith closing time,
the time distance between the ith closing and the next closing, p is the time distance
And n is a positive integer.
Further, in step 3, the variance estimate is obtained
The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
is the variance estimation value of the nth closing time,
is the variance of the ith closing time,
is the ith timeThe time distance between the closing and the next closing, p being the time distance
And n is a positive integer.
Further, in step 4, the probability distribution function of the nth closing time of the circuit breaker is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,t n the time of the nth closing is shown,μ n is a desired estimate of the nth closing time,
and n is a positive integer and is a variance estimation value of the nth closing time.
As can be seen from the above description of the present invention, compared with the prior art, the method for estimating the closing time of the circuit breaker based on the inverse distance power ratio method of the present invention at least includes one of the following beneficial effects:
1. according to the method, the uncertainty of the mechanical dispersity of the circuit breaker is considered, the closing time of the circuit breaker is regarded as obeying normal distribution, and the uncertainty of the mechanical dispersity of the circuit breaker is overcome by introducing a normal distribution function in calculation so as to improve the accuracy of the estimation of the closing time;
2. the invention adopts the inverse distance power ratio method to estimate the closing time of the circuit breaker for the first time, the method belongs to a statistical method, the proportion of recent data is reasonably improved, the feasibility and the accuracy are higher, according to the past experience, the closing mechanical device of the circuit breaker can age along with the use times, the closing delay changes along with the time as a whole, the closer closing operation has higher estimation reference value on the mechanical dispersity of the closing time of the circuit breaker, and the inverse distance power ratio method provided by the invention can reasonably improve the proportion of the recent data, so that the estimated result can be more accurately obtained.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart illustrating steps of a method for estimating a closing time of a circuit breaker based on an inverse distance-to-power ratio method according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the present invention will be described clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only some embodiments of the present invention, not all embodiments.
In the description of the present invention, it is to be noted that, unless otherwise explicitly specified or limited, the terms "connected" and "connected" are to be interpreted broadly, e.g., as being fixed or detachable or integrally connected; can be mechanically or electrically connected; may be directly connected or indirectly connected through an intermediate. The specific meanings of the above terms in the present invention can be understood in specific cases to those skilled in the art.
Referring to fig. 1, in a preferred embodiment of the present invention, a method for estimating a closing time of a circuit breaker based on an inverse distance power ratio method includes the following steps:
step 1, analyzing the closing process of the circuit breaker to obtain that the closing of the circuit breaker has mechanical dispersity, wherein the closing time of the circuit breaker at each time is random time, and the closing time of the circuit breaker is regarded as obeying normal distribution;
step 2, calculating an expected estimation value of a distribution function of the next closing time of the circuit breaker according to a distance power inverse ratio method; the inverse distance power ratio method is expressed by the following equation:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
for the purpose of the estimation of the value,
is the ith sample;
the distance between the ith sample and the estimated sample is taken; p is the power of the distance; n is a positive integer;
step 3, calculating a variance estimation value of a distribution function of the next closing time of the circuit breaker according to a distance power inverse ratio method;
and 4, modeling the closing time of the circuit breaker according to the expected estimated value and the variance estimated value and a normal distribution model to obtain a probability distribution function of the closing time of the circuit breaker.
According to the method, the uncertainty of the mechanical dispersity of the circuit breaker is considered, the closing time of the circuit breaker is regarded as obeying normal distribution, and the uncertainty of the mechanical dispersity of the circuit breaker is overcome by introducing a normal distribution function in calculation so as to improve the accuracy of the estimation of the closing time; the invention adopts the inverse distance power ratio method to estimate the closing time of the circuit breaker for the first time, the method belongs to a statistical method, the proportion of recent data is reasonably improved, the feasibility and the accuracy are higher, according to the past experience, the closing mechanical device of the circuit breaker can age along with the use times, the closing delay changes along with the time as a whole, the closer closing operation has higher estimation reference value on the mechanical dispersity of the closing time of the circuit breaker, and the inverse distance power ratio method provided by the invention can reasonably improve the proportion of the recent data, so that the estimated result can be more accurately obtained.
The inverse distance power ratio method is a geometric spatial interpolation method (spatial statistics) that estimates the values of grid points using the relationship that the distance exponential powers of known neighboring values are inversely proportional. It considers that the points closest to the unsampled point contribute most to the unsampled point value inversely proportional to the distance. The closer time closing operation has higher estimation reference value on the mechanical dispersion of the closing time of the circuit breaker, so that the distribution function of the next closing time can be estimated by using a time-distance inverse power ratio method.
As a preferred embodiment of the present invention, it may also have the following additional technical features:
further, in step 2, the desired estimation valueμ n The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,μ n is a desired estimate of the nth closing time,
for the expectation of the ith closing time,
the time distance between the ith closing and the next closing, p is the time distance
And n is a positive integer.
Further, in step 3, the variance estimate is obtained
The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
is the variance estimation value of the nth closing time,
is the variance of the ith closing time,
the time distance between the ith closing and the next closing, p is the time distance
And n is a positive integer.
Further, in step 4, the probability distribution function of the nth closing time of the circuit breaker is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,t n the time of the nth closing is shown,μ n is a desired estimate of the nth closing time,
and n is a positive integer and is a variance estimation value of the nth closing time.
The above additional technical features can be freely combined and used in superposition by those skilled in the art without conflict.
It is to be understood that the present invention has been described with reference to certain embodiments, and that various changes in the features and embodiments, or equivalent substitutions may be made therein by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention. In addition, many modifications may be made to adapt a particular situation or material to the teachings of the invention without departing from the essential scope thereof. Therefore, it is intended that the invention not be limited to the particular embodiment disclosed, but that the invention will include all embodiments falling within the scope of the appended claims.
Claims (4)
1. A method for estimating the closing time of a circuit breaker based on a distance inverse power ratio method is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step 1, analyzing the closing process of the circuit breaker to obtain that the closing of the circuit breaker has mechanical dispersity, wherein the closing time of the circuit breaker at each time is random time, and the closing time of the circuit breaker is regarded as obeying normal distribution;
step 2, calculating an expected estimation value of a distribution function of the next closing time of the circuit breaker according to a distance power inverse ratio method; the inverse distance power ratio method is expressed by the following equation:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
for the purpose of the estimation of the value,
is the ith sample;
the distance between the ith sample and the estimated sample is taken; p is the power of the distance; n is a positive integer;
step 3, calculating a variance estimation value of a distribution function of the next closing time of the circuit breaker according to a distance power inverse ratio method;
and 4, modeling the closing time of the circuit breaker according to the expected estimated value and the variance estimated value and a normal distribution model to obtain a probability distribution function of the closing time of the circuit breaker.
2. The method for estimating the closing time of the circuit breaker according to claim 1, wherein in step 2, the expected estimation value is obtainedμ n The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,μ n is a desired estimate of the nth closing time,
for the expectation of the ith closing time,
the time distance between the ith closing and the next closing, p is the time distance
And n is a positive integer.
3. The method for estimating the closing time of the circuit breaker based on the inverse distance power ratio method as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step 3, the variance estimation value
The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
is the variance estimation value of the nth closing time,
is the variance of the ith closing time,
the time distance between the ith closing and the next closing, p is the time distance
And n is a positive integer.
4. The method for estimating the closing time of the circuit breaker based on the inverse distance power ratio method as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step 4, the probability distribution function of the nth closing time of the circuit breaker is as follows:
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,t n the time of the nth closing is shown,μ n is a desired estimate of the nth closing time,
and n is a positive integer and is a variance estimation value of the nth closing time.
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