CN112700882B - Self-adaptive early warning method and robot for infectious diseases based on big data artificial intelligence - Google Patents
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Abstract
Description
技术领域technical field
本发明涉及人工智能技术领域,特别是涉及一种基于大数据人工智能的传染病的自适应预警方法和机器人。The invention relates to the technical field of artificial intelligence, in particular to an adaptive early warning method and robot for infectious diseases based on big data artificial intelligence.
背景技术Background technique
在实现本发明过程中,发明人发现现有技术中至少存在如下问题:现有技术下,因为新发重大传染病的发展高峰期,医疗资源必然是匮乏的,会由于预警阈值固定,引起医患矛盾甚至社会矛盾。In the process of realizing the present invention, the inventors found that there are at least the following problems in the prior art: under the prior art, because of the peak period of the development of new major infectious diseases, medical resources are bound to be scarce, which will cause medical problems due to the fixed warning threshold. Suffering from conflicts and even social conflicts.
因此,现有技术还有待于改进和发展。Therefore, the prior art still needs to be improved and developed.
发明内容Contents of the invention
基于此,有必要针对现有技术的缺陷或不足,提供基于大数据人工智能的传染病的自适应预警方法和机器人,以解决现有技术中由于预警阈值固定引起医患矛盾甚至社会矛盾的问题。Based on this, it is necessary to address the defects or insufficiencies of the existing technology, and provide an adaptive early warning method and robot for infectious diseases based on big data artificial intelligence, so as to solve the problem of conflicts between doctors and patients and even social conflicts caused by fixed warning thresholds in the prior art .
第一方面,本发明实施例提供一种人工智能方法,所述方法包括:In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an artificial intelligence method, the method comprising:
目标传染病获取步骤:获取需要预警的传染病,作为目标传染病;Target infectious disease acquisition step: acquire the infectious disease that needs early warning as the target infectious disease;
目标传染病第一状况获取步骤:获取目标传染病监测的准确率、目标传染病发展的严重程度;Steps to obtain the first status of the target infectious disease: obtain the accuracy of target infectious disease monitoring and the severity of the development of the target infectious disease;
预警阈值第一调节步骤:根据目标传染病监测的准确率在预警系统中采用对应的预警阈值;The first adjustment step of the early warning threshold: adopt the corresponding early warning threshold in the early warning system according to the accuracy of target infectious disease monitoring;
预警阈值第二调节步骤:根据目标传染病发展的严重程度在预警系统中采用对应的预警阈值。The second adjustment step of the early warning threshold: adopt the corresponding early warning threshold in the early warning system according to the severity of the development of the target infectious disease.
优选地,所述方法还包括:Preferably, the method also includes:
强化学习步骤:获取预警后的用户反馈,若用户反馈预警正确,则将所述用户的数据和需要预警作为输入和预期输出对预警模型进行有监督训练,将所述用户的数据和确诊感染了传染病作为输入和预期输出对监测模型进行有监督训练;若用户反馈预警不正确,则将所述用户的数据和不需要预警作为输入和预期输出对预警模型进行有监督训练,将所述用户的数据和确诊没有感染传染病作为输入和预期输出对监测模型进行有监督训练;所述预警模型包括深度学习神经网络模型或卷积神经网络模型或其他神经网络模型或机器人学习模型;所述监测模型包括深度学习神经网络模型或卷积神经网络模型或其他神经网络模型或机器人学习模型。Reinforcement learning step: Obtain user feedback after early warning. If the user feedback early warning is correct, use the user's data and required early warning as input and expected output to carry out supervised training on the early warning model, and use the user's data and confirmed infection Infectious diseases are used as input and expected output to carry out supervised training on the monitoring model; if the user feedbacks that the early warning is incorrect, the user's data and no early warning are used as input and expected output to carry out supervised training on the early warning model, and the user The data and the confirmed non-infected infectious disease are used as input and expected output to supervise the training of the monitoring model; the early warning model includes a deep learning neural network model or a convolutional neural network model or other neural network models or robot learning models; the monitoring Models include deep learning neural network models or convolutional neural network models or other neural network models or robot learning models.
优选地,所述方法还包括:Preferably, the method also includes:
二次调节步骤:获取调节了预警阈值前后的监测准确率的变化、预警准确率的变化,若监测准确率或预警准确率都下降,则以预设比例回调预警阈值。Second adjustment step: Obtain the change of monitoring accuracy before and after the adjustment of the warning threshold, and the change of warning accuracy. If the monitoring accuracy or warning accuracy both decrease, the warning threshold is called back at a preset ratio.
优选地,Preferably,
二次调节步骤具体包括:所述预设比例为小于1的分数,若预警阈值最近增加了第一预设值,则将第一预设值乘以预设比例作为第二预设值,然后将预警阈值减少第二预设值;若预警阈值最近减少了第一预设值,则将第一预设值乘以预设比例作为第二预设值,然后将预警阈值增加第二预设值。The secondary adjustment step specifically includes: the preset ratio is a fraction less than 1, if the warning threshold has recently increased by the first preset value, multiplying the first preset value by the preset ratio as the second preset value, and then Decrease the warning threshold by the second preset value; if the warning threshold has recently decreased by the first preset value, multiply the first preset value by the preset ratio as the second preset value, and then increase the warning threshold by the second preset value value.
优选地,所述方法还包括:Preferably, the method also includes:
目标传染病第二状况获取步骤:获取目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度、用户的优先级;所述用户包括个人或家庭或部门;The step of obtaining the second status of the target infectious disease: obtaining the tightness of medical resources related to the target infectious disease and the priority of the user; the user includes an individual or a family or a department;
预警阈值第三调节步骤:根据目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度在预警系统中采用对应的预警阈值;The third adjustment step of the early warning threshold: adopt the corresponding early warning threshold in the early warning system according to the tightness of medical resources related to the target infectious disease;
预警阈值第四调节步骤:根据用户的优先级在预警系统中采用对应的预警阈值。The fourth adjustment step of the warning threshold: adopting the corresponding warning threshold in the warning system according to the user's priority.
优选地,所述方法还包括:Preferably, the method also includes:
分区域预警阈值第一调节步骤:针对每一区域,根据所述每一区域的目标传染病监测的准确率在预警系统中对所述每一区域采用对应的预警阈值;The first adjustment step of the early warning threshold by region: for each region, adopt the corresponding early warning threshold for each region in the early warning system according to the accuracy of the target infectious disease monitoring in each region;
分区域预警阈值第二调节步骤:针对每一区域,根据所述每一区域的目标传染病发展的严重程度在预警系统中对所述每一区域采用对应的预警阈值;The second adjustment step of the subregional early warning threshold: for each area, adopt the corresponding early warning threshold for each area in the early warning system according to the severity of the development of the target infectious disease in each area;
分区域预警阈值第三调节步骤:针对每一区域,根据所述每一区域的目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度在预警系统中对所述每一区域采用对应的预警阈值;The third adjustment step of the regional early warning threshold: for each region, adopt the corresponding early warning threshold for each region in the early warning system according to the degree of strain on the target infectious disease-related medical resources in each region;
分区域预警阈值第四调节步骤:针对每一区域,根据所述每一区域的用户的优先级在预警系统中对所述每一区域采用对应的预警阈值。The fourth adjustment step of the early warning threshold by area: for each area, adopt the corresponding early warning threshold for each area in the early warning system according to the priority of users in each area.
优选地,其特征在于,Preferably, it is characterized in that,
预警阈值第一调节步骤具体包括:若目标传染病监测的准确率降低,则降低预警阈值;若目标传染病监测的准确率提高,则提高预警阈值;若目标传染病监测的准确率低于准确率预设阈值,则降低预警阈值到敏感预警范围;若目标传染病监测的准确率高于准确率预设阈值,则提高预警阈值到不敏感预警范围;The first adjustment step of the early warning threshold specifically includes: if the accuracy rate of target infectious disease monitoring decreases, then lower the early warning threshold; if the target infectious disease monitoring accuracy rate increases, then increase the early warning threshold; if the target infectious disease monitoring accuracy rate is lower than the accurate rate preset threshold, lower the early warning threshold to the sensitive early warning range; if the target infectious disease monitoring accuracy is higher than the accuracy preset threshold, increase the early warning threshold to the insensitive early warning range;
预警阈值第二调节步骤具体包括:若目标传染病发展的严重程度降低,则提高预警阈值;若目标传染病发展的严重程度提高,则降低预警阈值;若目标传染病发展的严重程度高于严重程度预设阈值,则降低预警阈值到敏感预警范围;若目标传染病发展的严重程度低于严重程度预设阈值,则提高预警阈值到不敏感预警范围。The second adjustment step of the early warning threshold specifically includes: if the severity of the development of the target infectious disease decreases, then increase the early warning threshold; if the severity of the development of the target infectious disease increases, then reduce the early warning threshold; If the severity preset threshold is lowered, the early warning threshold is lowered to the sensitive early warning range; if the severity of the development of the target infectious disease is lower than the severity preset threshold, the early warning threshold is raised to the insensitive early warning range.
优选地,Preferably,
预警阈值第三调节步骤具体包括:若目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度降低,则降低预警阈值;若目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度提高,则提高预警阈值;若目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度高于紧张程度预设阈值,则提高预警阈值到不敏感预警范围;若目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度低于紧张程度预设阈值,则降低预警阈值到敏感预警范围;The third adjustment step of the early warning threshold specifically includes: if the tightness of medical resources related to the target infectious disease decreases, lower the early warning threshold; if the tightness of medical resources related to the target infectious disease increases, increase the early warning threshold; if the tightness of medical resources related to the target infectious disease If the tension is higher than the preset threshold, the early warning threshold is increased to the insensitive early warning range; if the target infectious disease-related medical resource tension is lower than the tense preset threshold, the early warning threshold is lowered to the sensitive early warning range;
预警阈值第四调节步骤具体包括:若用户的优先级降低,则提高预警阈值;若用户的优先级提高,则降低预警阈值;若用户的优先级高于优先级预设阈值,则降低预警阈值到敏感预警范围;若用户的优先级低于优先级预设阈值,则提高预警阈值到不敏感预警范围;The fourth adjustment step of the early warning threshold specifically includes: if the user's priority decreases, then increase the early warning threshold; if the user's priority increases, then reduce the early warning threshold; if the user's priority is higher than the priority preset threshold, then reduce the early warning threshold to the sensitive warning range; if the user's priority is lower than the priority preset threshold, the warning threshold is increased to the insensitive warning range;
预警阈值第一调节步骤、预警阈值第二调节步骤、预警阈值第三调节步骤和预警阈值第四调节步骤还具体包括:若预警阈值处于敏感预警范围时,则怀疑感染目标传染病的可信度较低时也会被预警;若预警阈值处于不敏感预警范围时,则怀疑感染目标传染病的可信度较高时也会被预警;若怀疑感染目标传染病的可信度高于可信度预设阈值,则怀疑感染目标传染病的可信度为较高,否则为较低。The first adjustment step of the early warning threshold, the second adjustment step of the early warning threshold, the third adjustment step of the early warning threshold and the fourth adjustment step of the early warning threshold also specifically include: if the early warning threshold is in the sensitive early warning range, the credibility of the suspected infection of the target infectious disease When the threshold is low, it will also be warned; if the warning threshold is in the insensitive warning range, it will also be warned when the credibility of the suspected infection of the target infectious disease is high; if the credibility of the suspected infection of the target infectious disease is higher than the credible If the degree preset threshold, the confidence of suspected infection of the target infectious disease is high, otherwise it is low.
第二方面,本发明实施例提供一种人工智能系统,所述系统包括:In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an artificial intelligence system, the system comprising:
目标传染病获取模块:获取需要预警的传染病,作为目标传染病;Target infectious disease acquisition module: acquire infectious diseases that require early warning as target infectious diseases;
目标传染病第一状况获取模块:获取目标传染病监测的准确率、目标传染病发展的严重程度;Obtaining the first status of the target infectious disease module: Acquiring the accuracy of target infectious disease monitoring and the severity of the target infectious disease development;
预警阈值第一调节模块:根据目标传染病监测的准确率在预警系统中采用对应的预警阈值;The first adjustment module of the early warning threshold: adopt the corresponding early warning threshold in the early warning system according to the accuracy of target infectious disease monitoring;
预警阈值第二调节模块:根据目标传染病发展的严重程度在预警系统中采用对应的预警阈值。The second adjustment module of the early warning threshold: according to the severity of the development of the target infectious disease, the corresponding early warning threshold is adopted in the early warning system.
优选地,所述系统还包括:Preferably, the system also includes:
强化学习模块:获取预警后的用户反馈,若用户反馈预警正确,则将所述用户的数据和需要预警作为输入和预期输出对预警模型进行有监督训练,将所述用户的数据和确诊感染了传染病作为输入和预期输出对监测模型进行有监督训练;若用户反馈预警不正确,则将所述用户的数据和不需要预警作为输入和预期输出对预警模型进行有监督训练,将所述用户的数据和确诊没有感染传染病作为输入和预期输出对监测模型进行有监督训练;所述预警模型包括深度学习神经网络模型或卷积神经网络模型或其他神经网络模型或机器人学习模型;所述监测模型包括深度学习神经网络模型或卷积神经网络模型或其他神经网络模型或机器人学习模型。Reinforcement learning module: Obtain user feedback after early warning. If the user feedback early warning is correct, the user's data and required early warning will be used as input and expected output to carry out supervised training on the early warning model, and the user's data and confirmed infection Infectious diseases are used as input and expected output to carry out supervised training on the monitoring model; if the user feedbacks that the early warning is incorrect, the user's data and no early warning are used as input and expected output to carry out supervised training on the early warning model, and the user The data and the confirmed non-infected infectious disease are used as input and expected output to supervise the training of the monitoring model; the early warning model includes a deep learning neural network model or a convolutional neural network model or other neural network models or robot learning models; the monitoring Models include deep learning neural network models or convolutional neural network models or other neural network models or robot learning models.
优选地,所述系统还包括:Preferably, the system also includes:
二次调节模块:获取调节了预警阈值前后的监测准确率的变化、预警准确率的变化,若监测准确率或预警准确率都下降,则以预设比例回调预警阈值。Secondary adjustment module: Obtain the changes in monitoring accuracy and early warning accuracy before and after the adjustment of the early warning threshold. If the monitoring accuracy or early warning accuracy both decrease, the early warning threshold will be called back at a preset ratio.
优选地,Preferably,
二次调节模块具体包括:所述预设比例为小于1的分数,若预警阈值最近增加了第一预设值,则将第一预设值乘以预设比例作为第二预设值,然后将预警阈值减少第二预设值;若预警阈值最近减少了第一预设值,则将第一预设值乘以预设比例作为第二预设值,然后将预警阈值增加第二预设值。The secondary adjustment module specifically includes: the preset ratio is a fraction less than 1, if the early warning threshold value has recently increased the first preset value, the first preset value is multiplied by the preset ratio as the second preset value, and then Decrease the warning threshold by the second preset value; if the warning threshold has recently decreased by the first preset value, multiply the first preset value by the preset ratio as the second preset value, and then increase the warning threshold by the second preset value value.
优选地,所述系统还包括:Preferably, the system also includes:
目标传染病第二状况获取模块:获取目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度、用户的优先级;所述用户包括个人或家庭或部门;The second status acquisition module of the target infectious disease: acquire the tightness of medical resources related to the target infectious disease and the priority of the user; the user includes an individual or a family or a department;
预警阈值第三调节模块:根据目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度在预警系统中采用对应的预警阈值;The third adjustment module of early warning threshold: adopt the corresponding early warning threshold in the early warning system according to the tightness of medical resources related to the target infectious disease;
预警阈值第四调节模块:根据用户的优先级在预警系统中采用对应的预警阈值。The fourth adjustment module of the warning threshold: according to the priority of the user, the corresponding warning threshold is adopted in the warning system.
优选地,所述系统还包括:Preferably, the system also includes:
分区域预警阈值第一调节模块:针对每一区域,根据所述每一区域的目标传染病监测的准确率在预警系统中对所述每一区域采用对应的预警阈值;Subregional early warning threshold first adjustment module: for each area, adopt the corresponding early warning threshold for each area in the early warning system according to the accuracy of target infectious disease monitoring in each area;
分区域预警阈值第二调节模块:针对每一区域,根据所述每一区域的目标传染病发展的严重程度在预警系统中对所述每一区域采用对应的预警阈值;Subregional early warning threshold second adjustment module: for each area, adopt the corresponding early warning threshold for each area in the early warning system according to the severity of the development of the target infectious disease in each area;
分区域预警阈值第三调节模块:针对每一区域,根据所述每一区域的目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度在预警系统中对所述每一区域采用对应的预警阈值;The third adjustment module of the regional early warning threshold: for each region, adopt the corresponding early warning threshold for each region in the early warning system according to the degree of strain on the target infectious disease-related medical resources in each region;
分区域预警阈值第四调节模块:针对每一区域,根据所述每一区域的用户的优先级在预警系统中对所述每一区域采用对应的预警阈值。The fourth adjustment module of the early warning threshold by area: for each area, adopt the corresponding early warning threshold for each area in the early warning system according to the priority of users in each area.
优选地,Preferably,
预警阈值第一调节模块具体包括:若目标传染病监测的准确率降低,则降低预警阈值;若目标传染病监测的准确率提高,则提高预警阈值;若目标传染病监测的准确率低于准确率预设阈值,则降低预警阈值到敏感预警范围;若目标传染病监测的准确率高于准确率预设阈值,则提高预警阈值到不敏感预警范围;The first adjustment module of the early warning threshold specifically includes: if the accuracy of target infectious disease monitoring decreases, then reduce the early warning threshold; if the accuracy of target infectious disease monitoring increases, then increase the early warning threshold; if the target infectious disease monitoring accuracy is lower than the accurate rate preset threshold, lower the early warning threshold to the sensitive early warning range; if the target infectious disease monitoring accuracy is higher than the accuracy preset threshold, increase the early warning threshold to the insensitive early warning range;
预警阈值第二调节模块具体包括:若目标传染病发展的严重程度降低,则提高预警阈值;若目标传染病发展的严重程度提高,则降低预警阈值;若目标传染病发展的严重程度高于严重程度预设阈值,则降低预警阈值到敏感预警范围;若目标传染病发展的严重程度低于严重程度预设阈值,则提高预警阈值到不敏感预警范围。The second adjustment module of the early warning threshold specifically includes: if the severity of the development of the target infectious disease decreases, then increase the early warning threshold; if the severity of the development of the target infectious disease increases, then reduce the early warning threshold; If the severity preset threshold is lowered, the early warning threshold is lowered to the sensitive early warning range; if the severity of the development of the target infectious disease is lower than the severity preset threshold, the early warning threshold is raised to the insensitive early warning range.
优选地,Preferably,
预警阈值第三调节模块具体包括:若目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度降低,则降低预警阈值;若目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度提高,则提高预警阈值;若目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度高于紧张程度预设阈值,则提高预警阈值到不敏感预警范围;若目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度低于紧张程度预设阈值,则降低预警阈值到敏感预警范围;The third adjustment module of the early warning threshold specifically includes: if the tightness of medical resources related to the target infectious disease decreases, then reduce the early warning threshold; if the tightness of medical resources related to the target infectious disease increases, increase the early warning threshold; if the tightness of medical resources related to the target infectious disease If the tension is higher than the preset threshold, the early warning threshold is increased to the insensitive early warning range; if the target infectious disease-related medical resource tension is lower than the tense preset threshold, the early warning threshold is lowered to the sensitive early warning range;
预警阈值第四调节模块具体包括:若用户的优先级降低,则提高预警阈值;若用户的优先级提高,则降低预警阈值;若用户的优先级高于优先级预设阈值,则降低预警阈值到敏感预警范围;若用户的优先级低于优先级预设阈值,则提高预警阈值到不敏感预警范围;The fourth adjustment module of the early warning threshold specifically includes: if the user's priority decreases, then increase the early warning threshold; if the user's priority increases, then reduce the early warning threshold; if the user's priority is higher than the priority preset threshold, then reduce the early warning threshold to the sensitive warning range; if the user's priority is lower than the priority preset threshold, the warning threshold is increased to the insensitive warning range;
预警阈值第一调节模块、预警阈值第二调节模块、预警阈值第三调节模块和预警阈值第四调节模块还具体包括:若预警阈值处于敏感预警范围时,则怀疑感染目标传染病的可信度较低时也会被预警;若预警阈值处于不敏感预警范围时,则怀疑感染目标传染病的可信度较高时也会被预警;若怀疑感染目标传染病的可信度高于可信度预设阈值,则怀疑感染目标传染病的可信度为较高,否则为较低。The first warning threshold adjustment module, the second warning threshold adjustment module, the third warning threshold adjustment module, and the fourth warning threshold adjustment module also specifically include: if the warning threshold is in the sensitive warning range, the credibility of the suspected infection of the target infectious disease When the threshold is low, it will also be warned; if the warning threshold is in the insensitive warning range, it will also be warned when the credibility of the suspected infection of the target infectious disease is high; if the credibility of the suspected infection of the target infectious disease is higher than the credible If the degree preset threshold, the confidence of suspected infection of the target infectious disease is high, otherwise it is low.
第三方面,本发明实施例提供一种人工智能装置,所述装置包括第二方面实施例任意一项所述系统的模块。In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides an artificial intelligence device, and the device includes modules of the system described in any one of the embodiments of the second aspect.
第四方面,本发明实施例提供一种计算机可读存储介质,其上存储有计算机程序,所述程序被处理器执行时实现第一方面实施例任意一项所述方法的步骤。In a fourth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a computer-readable storage medium, on which a computer program is stored, and when the program is executed by a processor, the steps of any one of the methods described in the embodiments of the first aspect are implemented.
第五方面,本发明实施例提供一种机器人,包括存储器、处理器及存储在存储器上并可在处理器上运行的人工智能机器人程序,所述处理器执行所述程序时实现第一方面实施例任意一项所述方法的步骤。In the fifth aspect, an embodiment of the present invention provides a robot, including a memory, a processor, and an artificial intelligence robot program stored in the memory and operable on the processor, and the processor implements the first aspect when executing the program. Examples of the steps of any one of the described methods.
本实施例提供的基于大数据人工智能的传染病的自适应预警方法和机器人,包括:目标传染病获取步骤;目标传染病第一状况获取步骤;预警阈值第一调节步骤;预警阈值第二调节步骤。上述方法、系统和机器人,在进行预警时,还根据目标传染病监测的准确率、目标传染病发展的严重程度进行预警阈值的设置,从而使得预警能够自适应地根据目标传染病监测的准确率、目标传染病发展的严重程度进行调节,从而提高预警的效果,能够使得预警能够最大程度地控制和遏制传染病的发展。The self-adaptive early warning method and robot for infectious diseases based on big data artificial intelligence provided in this embodiment include: the step of obtaining the target infectious disease; the step of obtaining the first condition of the target infectious disease; the first adjustment step of the early warning threshold; the second adjustment of the early warning threshold step. The above-mentioned method, system and robot, when performing early warning, also set the early warning threshold according to the accuracy of target infectious disease monitoring and the severity of the development of the target infectious disease, so that the early warning can be adaptively based on the accuracy of target infectious disease monitoring , Adjust the severity of the development of the target infectious disease, so as to improve the effect of early warning, and enable the early warning to control and curb the development of infectious diseases to the greatest extent.
附图说明Description of drawings
图1为本发明的实施例提供的人工智能方法的流程图;Fig. 1 is the flowchart of the artificial intelligence method that the embodiment of the present invention provides;
图2为本发明的实施例提供的人工智能方法包括的流程图;Fig. 2 is the flowchart that the artificial intelligence method that the embodiment of the present invention provides includes;
图3为本发明的实施例提供的人工智能方法包括的流程图;Fig. 3 is the flow chart that the artificial intelligence method provided by the embodiment of the present invention includes;
图4为本发明的实施例提供的基于大数据的传染病的预警调节示意图。Fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of the early warning adjustment of infectious diseases based on big data provided by the embodiment of the present invention.
具体实施方式Detailed ways
下面结合本发明实施方式,对本发明实施例中的技术方案进行详细地描述。The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the embodiments of the present invention.
本发明的基本实施例Basic embodiment of the invention
本发明一个实施例提供的一种人工智能方法,如图1所示,所述方法包括:目标传染病获取步骤;目标传染病第一状况获取步骤;预警阈值第一调节步骤;预警阈值第二调节步骤。技术效果:现有方法在预警时只考虑目标传染病监测的结果,而本实施例所述方法在进行预警时,还根据目标传染病监测的准确率、目标传染病发展的严重程度进行预警阈值的设置,从而使得预警能够自适应地根据目标传染病监测的准确率、目标传染病发展的严重程度进行调节,从而提高预警的效果,能够使得预警能够最大程度地控制和遏制传染病的发展。An artificial intelligence method provided by an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in Figure 1, said method includes: the step of acquiring the target infectious disease; the step of acquiring the first condition of the target infectious disease; the first adjustment step of the early warning threshold; the second early warning threshold Adjustment steps. Technical effect: the existing method only considers the monitoring results of the target infectious disease during the early warning, while the method described in this embodiment also sets the early warning threshold according to the accuracy of the target infectious disease monitoring and the severity of the development of the target infectious disease when performing the early warning Therefore, the early warning can be adaptively adjusted according to the accuracy of target infectious disease monitoring and the severity of target infectious disease development, thereby improving the effect of early warning and enabling early warning to control and curb the development of infectious diseases to the greatest extent.
优选地,所述方法还包括:强化学习步骤。技术效果:现有方法中预警与监测是2个不同的环节,各自采用不同的模型,相互之间没有关系。本实施例所述方法通过对预警的反馈来不断提高监测模型的预测效果,从而使得预警和监测相互促进,不断提高监测和预警的效果。Preferably, the method further includes: a reinforcement learning step. Technical effect: In the existing method, early warning and monitoring are two different links, each of which uses a different model, and has no relationship with each other. The method described in this embodiment continuously improves the prediction effect of the monitoring model through the feedback of the early warning, so that the early warning and the monitoring promote each other, and the effects of the monitoring and the early warning are continuously improved.
优选地,所述方法还包括:二次调节步骤。技术效果:所述方法通过回调机制来避免调节过度导致的问题,从而使得预警阈值的调节效果更好。Preferably, the method further includes: a secondary adjustment step. Technical effect: the method avoids problems caused by over-regulation through a callback mechanism, so that the adjustment effect of the warning threshold is better.
优选地,如图2所示,所述方法还包括:目标传染病第二状况获取步骤;预警阈值第三调节步骤;预警阈值第四调节步骤。技术效果:所述方法进一步考虑目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度、用户的优先级,来进行预警阈值的调节,来进一步提高预警的自适应性,能够使得预警能够自适应各种情况,取得最好的预警效果。Preferably, as shown in FIG. 2 , the method further includes: a second condition acquiring step of the target infectious disease; a third adjusting step of the warning threshold; and a fourth adjusting step of the warning threshold. Technical effect: The method further considers the degree of tension of medical resources related to the target infectious disease and the priority of users to adjust the warning threshold to further improve the adaptability of the warning, so that the warning can adapt to various situations and achieve the best results. Good warning effect.
优选地,如图3所示,所述方法还包括:分区域预警阈值第一调节步骤;分区域预警阈值第二调节步骤;分区域预警阈值第三调节步骤;分区域预警阈值第四调节步骤。技术效果:所述方法通过针对每一区域进行预警,进一步提高预警的准确率,因为不同区域的情况不同,所以针对不同区域进行预警能够取得更好的预警效果,能够使得预警适应不同区域的情况。。Preferably, as shown in FIG. 3 , the method further includes: a first adjustment step of the early warning threshold by region; a second adjustment step of the early warning threshold by region; a third adjustment step of the early warning threshold by region; a fourth adjustment step of the early warning threshold by region . Technical effect: the method further improves the accuracy of early warning by carrying out early warning for each area, because different areas have different conditions, so early warning for different areas can achieve better early warning effects, and can make the early warning adapt to the situation of different areas . .
本发明的优选实施例Preferred Embodiments of the Invention
目标传染病获取步骤:获取需要预警的传染病,作为目标传染病;Target infectious disease acquisition step: acquire the infectious disease that needs early warning as the target infectious disease;
目标传染病第一状况获取步骤:获取目标传染病监测的准确率、目标传染病发展的严重程度;Steps to obtain the first status of the target infectious disease: obtain the accuracy of target infectious disease monitoring and the severity of the development of the target infectious disease;
预警阈值第一调节步骤:根据目标传染病监测的准确率在预警系统中采用对应的预警阈值;The first adjustment step of the early warning threshold: adopt the corresponding early warning threshold in the early warning system according to the accuracy of target infectious disease monitoring;
预警阈值第二调节步骤:根据目标传染病发展的严重程度在预警系统中采用对应的预警阈值;The second adjustment step of the early warning threshold: adopt the corresponding early warning threshold in the early warning system according to the severity of the development of the target infectious disease;
强化学习步骤:获取预警后的用户反馈,若用户反馈预警正确,则将所述用户的数据和需要预警作为输入和预期输出对预警模型进行有监督训练,将所述用户的数据和确诊感染了传染病作为输入和预期输出对监测模型进行有监督训练;若用户反馈预警不正确,则将所述用户的数据和不需要预警作为输入和预期输出对预警模型进行有监督训练,将所述用户的数据和确诊没有感染传染病作为输入和预期输出对监测模型进行有监督训练;所述预警模型包括深度学习神经网络模型或卷积神经网络模型或其他神经网络模型或机器人学习模型;所述监测模型包括深度学习神经网络模型或卷积神经网络模型或其他神经网络模型或机器人学习模型;Reinforcement learning step: Obtain user feedback after early warning. If the user feedback early warning is correct, use the user's data and required early warning as input and expected output to carry out supervised training on the early warning model, and use the user's data and confirmed infection Infectious diseases are used as input and expected output to carry out supervised training on the monitoring model; if the user feedbacks that the early warning is incorrect, the user's data and no early warning are used as input and expected output to carry out supervised training on the early warning model, and the user The data and the confirmed non-infected infectious disease are used as input and expected output to supervise the training of the monitoring model; the early warning model includes a deep learning neural network model or a convolutional neural network model or other neural network models or robot learning models; the monitoring Models include deep learning neural network models or convolutional neural network models or other neural network models or robotic learning models;
二次调节步骤:获取调节了预警阈值前后的监测准确率的变化、预警准确率的变化,若监测准确率或预警准确率都下降,则以预设比例回调预警阈值;Secondary adjustment step: Obtain the change of monitoring accuracy before and after the adjustment of the warning threshold, and the change of warning accuracy. If the monitoring accuracy or warning accuracy both decrease, the warning threshold is called back at a preset ratio;
二次调节步骤具体包括:所述预设比例为小于1的分数,若预警阈值最近增加了第一预设值,则将第一预设值乘以预设比例作为第二预设值,然后将预警阈值减少第二预设值;若预警阈值最近减少了第一预设值,则将第一预设值乘以预设比例作为第二预设值,然后将预警阈值增加第二预设值;The secondary adjustment step specifically includes: the preset ratio is a fraction less than 1, if the warning threshold has recently increased by the first preset value, multiplying the first preset value by the preset ratio as the second preset value, and then Decrease the warning threshold by the second preset value; if the warning threshold has recently decreased by the first preset value, multiply the first preset value by the preset ratio as the second preset value, and then increase the warning threshold by the second preset value value;
目标传染病第二状况获取步骤包括:获取目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度、用户的优先级;所述用户包括个人或家庭或部门;The step of obtaining the second status of the target infectious disease includes: obtaining the degree of strain on medical resources related to the target infectious disease and the priority of the user; the user includes an individual or a family or a department;
预警阈值第三调节步骤:根据目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度在预警系统中采用对应的预警阈值;The third adjustment step of the early warning threshold: adopt the corresponding early warning threshold in the early warning system according to the tightness of medical resources related to the target infectious disease;
预警阈值第四调节步骤:根据用户的优先级在预警系统中采用对应的预警阈值;The fourth adjustment step of the early warning threshold: adopt the corresponding early warning threshold in the early warning system according to the priority of the user;
分区域预警阈值第一调节步骤:针对每一区域,根据所述每一区域的目标传染病监测的准确率在预警系统中对所述每一区域采用对应的预警阈值;The first adjustment step of the early warning threshold by region: for each region, adopt the corresponding early warning threshold for each region in the early warning system according to the accuracy of the target infectious disease monitoring in each region;
分区域预警阈值第二调节步骤:针对每一区域,根据所述每一区域的目标传染病发展的严重程度在预警系统中对所述每一区域采用对应的预警阈值;The second adjustment step of the subregional early warning threshold: for each area, adopt the corresponding early warning threshold for each area in the early warning system according to the severity of the development of the target infectious disease in each area;
分区域预警阈值第三调节步骤:针对每一区域,根据所述每一区域的目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度在预警系统中对所述每一区域采用对应的预警阈值;The third adjustment step of the regional early warning threshold: for each region, adopt the corresponding early warning threshold for each region in the early warning system according to the degree of strain on the target infectious disease-related medical resources in each region;
分区域预警阈值第四调节步骤:针对每一区域,根据所述每一区域的用户的优先级在预警系统中对所述每一区域采用对应的预警阈值;The fourth adjustment step of the early warning threshold by area: for each area, adopt the corresponding early warning threshold for each area in the early warning system according to the priority of users in each area;
预警阈值第一调节步骤具体包括:若目标传染病监测的准确率降低,则降低预警阈值;若目标传染病监测的准确率提高,则提高预警阈值;若目标传染病监测的准确率低于准确率预设阈值,则降低预警阈值到敏感预警范围;若目标传染病监测的准确率高于准确率预设阈值,则提高预警阈值到不敏感预警范围;The first adjustment step of the early warning threshold specifically includes: if the accuracy rate of target infectious disease monitoring decreases, then lower the early warning threshold; if the target infectious disease monitoring accuracy rate increases, then increase the early warning threshold; if the target infectious disease monitoring accuracy rate is lower than the accurate rate preset threshold, lower the early warning threshold to the sensitive early warning range; if the target infectious disease monitoring accuracy is higher than the accuracy preset threshold, increase the early warning threshold to the insensitive early warning range;
预警阈值第二调节步骤具体包括:若目标传染病发展的严重程度降低,则提高预警阈值;若目标传染病发展的严重程度提高,则降低预警阈值;若目标传染病发展的严重程度高于严重程度预设阈值,则降低预警阈值到敏感预警范围;若目标传染病发展的严重程度低于严重程度预设阈值,则提高预警阈值到不敏感预警范围;The second adjustment step of the early warning threshold specifically includes: if the severity of the development of the target infectious disease decreases, then increase the early warning threshold; if the severity of the development of the target infectious disease increases, then reduce the early warning threshold; If the severity preset threshold is lower than the threshold, the early warning threshold is lowered to the sensitive early warning range; if the severity of the development of the target infectious disease is lower than the severity preset threshold, the early warning threshold is increased to the insensitive early warning range;
预警阈值第三调节步骤具体包括:若目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度降低,则降低预警阈值;若目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度提高,则提高预警阈值;若目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度高于紧张程度预设阈值,则提高预警阈值到不敏感预警范围;若目标传染病相关医疗资源紧张程度低于紧张程度预设阈值,则降低预警阈值到敏感预警范围;The third adjustment step of the early warning threshold specifically includes: if the tightness of medical resources related to the target infectious disease decreases, lower the early warning threshold; if the tightness of medical resources related to the target infectious disease increases, increase the early warning threshold; if the tightness of medical resources related to the target infectious disease If the tension is higher than the preset threshold, the early warning threshold is increased to the insensitive early warning range; if the target infectious disease-related medical resource tension is lower than the tense preset threshold, the early warning threshold is lowered to the sensitive early warning range;
预警阈值第四调节步骤具体包括:若用户的优先级降低,则提高预警阈值;若用户的优先级提高,则降低预警阈值;若用户的优先级高于优先级预设阈值,则降低预警阈值到敏感预警范围;若用户的优先级低于优先级预设阈值,则提高预警阈值到不敏感预警范围;The fourth adjustment step of the early warning threshold specifically includes: if the user's priority decreases, then increase the early warning threshold; if the user's priority increases, then reduce the early warning threshold; if the user's priority is higher than the priority preset threshold, then reduce the early warning threshold to the sensitive warning range; if the user's priority is lower than the priority preset threshold, the warning threshold is increased to the insensitive warning range;
预警阈值第一调节步骤、预警阈值第二调节步骤、预警阈值第三调节步骤和预警阈值第四调节步骤还具体包括:若预警阈值处于敏感预警范围时,则怀疑感染目标传染病的可信度较低时也会被预警;若预警阈值处于不敏感预警范围时,则怀疑感染目标传染病的可信度较高时也会被预警;若怀疑感染目标传染病的可信度高于可信度预设阈值,则怀疑感染目标传染病的可信度为较高,否则为较低。The first adjustment step of the early warning threshold, the second adjustment step of the early warning threshold, the third adjustment step of the early warning threshold and the fourth adjustment step of the early warning threshold also specifically include: if the early warning threshold is in the sensitive early warning range, the credibility of the suspected infection of the target infectious disease When the threshold is low, it will also be warned; if the warning threshold is in the insensitive warning range, it will also be warned when the credibility of the suspected infection of the target infectious disease is high; if the credibility of the suspected infection of the target infectious disease is higher than the credible If the degree preset threshold, the confidence of suspected infection of the target infectious disease is high, otherwise it is low.
本发明的其他实施例Other embodiments of the invention
因为新发重大传染病的发展高峰期,医疗资源必然是匮乏的,如何通过预警阈值的调节,来缓解医疗资源缺乏引起的医患矛盾甚至社会矛盾?本实施例拟采取的方法是一方面提高系统监测和预警的准确率,这样就使得没有患病的人不会被误判而去医院进行检查来占用医疗资源,同时采用根据医疗资源紧张等级、疫情发展等级、用户属性等来动态地调节预警阈值来权衡医疗资源与诊疗需求,使之能够智能匹配。Because of the peak period of the development of new major infectious diseases, medical resources are bound to be scarce. How to adjust the early warning threshold to alleviate the contradiction between doctors and patients and even social conflicts caused by the lack of medical resources? The method to be adopted in this embodiment is to improve the accuracy of system monitoring and early warning on the one hand, so that people who are not sick will not be misjudged and go to the hospital for examination to occupy medical resources. The level of epidemic development, user attributes, etc. are used to dynamically adjust the early warning threshold to balance medical resources and diagnosis and treatment needs, so that they can be intelligently matched.
基于大数据的新发重大传染病的自适应预警:在系统及新发重大传染病的不同发展阶段采用不同的预警阈值。首先在系统层面,在系统监测精度不高的情况下尽量降低阈值,以免延误新发重大传染病的预警;在系统监测精度逐步提高的情况下可以逐步提高阈值,以减少预警带来后续医学检查的成本和给社会带来恐慌的成本。其次在新发重大传染病发展过程的层面,在新发重大传染病不严重的期间此时传染风险较低,可以提高阈值,以免对人们的生活和工作造成干扰;在新发重大传染病严重的期间,需要降低阈值,以尽早发现、尽早隔离和治疗。同时,预警的阈值的调节还要考虑到各地区的疫情情况以及各地区的当前资源紧张情况以及每个用户的不同属性。图4展示的是基于大数据的新发重大传染病的预警调节示意图:Adaptive early warning of emerging major infectious diseases based on big data: Different early warning thresholds are used at different development stages of the system and emerging major infectious diseases. First of all, at the system level, when the system monitoring accuracy is not high, the threshold should be lowered as much as possible, so as not to delay the early warning of new major infectious diseases; when the system monitoring accuracy is gradually improved, the threshold can be gradually increased to reduce the follow-up medical examination caused by the early warning cost and the cost of causing panic to society. Secondly, at the level of the development process of new major infectious diseases, when the new major infectious diseases are not serious, the risk of infection is low at this time, and the threshold can be raised to avoid interference with people's life and work; During the period, the threshold needs to be lowered for early detection, early isolation and treatment. At the same time, the adjustment of the warning threshold should also take into account the epidemic situation in each region, the current resource shortage in each region, and the different attributes of each user. Figure 4 shows a schematic diagram of the early warning adjustment of new major infectious diseases based on big data:
基于大数据的新发重大传染病的预警阈值反馈调节:采用基于大数据的强化学习的方法,根据应对后的反馈来验证监测的准确率,并根据准确率来调整预警的阈值。当准确率高时,则提高预警阈值,因为此时监测比较准确,所以预警也比较准确,遗漏已感染用户的概率较小。当准确率不高时,则将预警阈值设置低一些,因为此时监测不太准确,所以预警也不太准确,为了避免遗漏,宁愿误报一些(有些没感染的误报为感染了),尽量确保已感染用户的不会遗漏。所以在系统使用的初期,预警阈值应该设低一些,然后随着系统的使用,有更多的应对反馈可以用来校正监测模型,从而使得监测越来越准确,进而就可以逐步提高预警阈值,当提高预警阈值后,监测预警的准确率没有下降,则表明该阈值提高得恰当,当提高预警阈值后,监测预警的准确率有所下降,说明该阈值提高得过多,则需要将监测预警的阈值再稍微下调回去一些,直至监测预警的准确率不会因为阈值的提高而下降为止。之所以阈值提高会导致监测预警的准确率有所下降,是因为阈值提高过多后,必然导致更多用户被漏检,而这些用户后来却被查出被感染,从而会导致监测预警的准确率有所下降,当然这个反馈的过程会有一定的延迟,所以监测预警的阈值的调节是一个从粗到细逐步调优的过程。Feedback adjustment of early warning threshold for new major infectious diseases based on big data: using reinforcement learning method based on big data, verify the accuracy of monitoring according to the feedback after response, and adjust the early warning threshold according to the accuracy. When the accuracy rate is high, the early warning threshold is increased, because the monitoring is more accurate at this time, so the early warning is also more accurate, and the probability of missing infected users is small. When the accuracy rate is not high, set the early warning threshold lower, because the monitoring is not very accurate at this time, so the early warning is not very accurate. In order to avoid omissions, I would rather make some false positives (some false negatives that are not infected are infected), Try to ensure that infected users are not missed. Therefore, in the initial stage of system use, the early warning threshold should be set lower, and then with the use of the system, more response feedback can be used to correct the monitoring model, so that the monitoring becomes more and more accurate, and then the early warning threshold can be gradually increased. When the early warning threshold is increased, the accuracy rate of monitoring and early warning does not decrease, which indicates that the threshold is raised appropriately. The threshold will be slightly lowered until the accuracy of monitoring and early warning will not decrease due to the increase of the threshold. The reason why the increase in the threshold will lead to a decline in the accuracy of monitoring and early warning is because if the threshold is increased too much, more users will inevitably be missed, and these users will be found to be infected later, which will lead to the accuracy of monitoring and early warning. Of course, there will be a certain delay in the feedback process, so the adjustment of the monitoring and early warning threshold is a process of gradual optimization from coarse to fine.
基于大数据的新发重大传染病的预警阈值动态调节:新发重大传染病一般都有一个发展周期,分为发生、发展、高峰、低峰、消亡(如果在消亡阶段放松防范可能会导致死灰复燃,又重新进入发展阶段)几个阶段,那么通过大数据可以分析判断出当前处于哪个阶段,并且根据所处的阶段来动态地调节预警阈值。在发生阶段需要把预警阈值设得较低,使得有轻微症状就被筛查出来就诊,从而使得新发重大传染病的苗头可以被阻止住,如果阻止的好,那么就不会进入后面的阶段。万一没有阻止住,那么就会进入发展甚至高峰期,在这两个阶段,预警阈值需要设置得恰当,因为如果预警阈值设置得过低,就会漏掉很多感染的人,进而会造成更大范围的传播,而如果设置得过高,又会造成医疗资源的紧张,因为在发展和高峰阶段已经有比较多的人患病,所以医疗资源必然非常紧张,如果预警阈值设置得过低,就会有很多患病风险很低的人也去占用医疗资源,必然导致医疗资源匮乏,而无法救治那些真实患病的人,甚至会导致社会混乱。同时,预警的阈值的调节还要考虑到各地区的疫情情况以及各地区的当前资源紧张情况以及每个用户的不同属性。基于大数据的新发重大传染病的预警阈值动态调节可以通过基于面向新发重大传染病的智能分级的三级预警应对规则库来实现,基于面向新发重大传染病的智能分级的三级预警应对规则库在基于大数据的新发重大传染病应对的研究方案中给出。Dynamic adjustment of the early warning threshold of new major infectious diseases based on big data: New major infectious diseases generally have a development cycle, which is divided into occurrence, development, peak, low peak, and extinction (if prevention is relaxed during the extinction stage, it may lead to resurgence , and re-enter the development stage) several stages, then through big data analysis can determine which stage it is currently in, and dynamically adjust the early warning threshold according to the stage it is in. In the occurrence stage, the early warning threshold should be set lower, so that mild symptoms can be screened out for medical treatment, so that the signs of new major infectious diseases can be stopped. If the prevention is good, then it will not enter the later stage. . If it is not stopped, it will enter the development or even peak period. In these two stages, the early warning threshold needs to be set properly, because if the early warning threshold is set too low, many infected people will be missed, which will cause even more infection. Large-scale transmission, and if the setting is too high, it will cause a shortage of medical resources, because more people have become sick during the development and peak stages, so medical resources must be very tight, if the early warning threshold is set too low, There will be many people with very low risk of illness who will also occupy medical resources, which will inevitably lead to a shortage of medical resources, and the inability to treat those who are really sick, and even lead to social chaos. At the same time, the adjustment of the warning threshold should also take into account the epidemic situation in each region, the current resource shortage in each region, and the different attributes of each user. The dynamic adjustment of early warning thresholds for emerging major infectious diseases based on big data can be realized through a three-level early warning and response rule base based on intelligent classification for emerging major infectious diseases, and a three-level early warning based on intelligent classification for emerging major infectious diseases The response rule base is given in the research plan for the response to major emerging infectious diseases based on big data.
以上所述实施例仅表达了本发明的几种实施方式,其描述较为具体和详细,但并不能因此而理解为对本发明专利范围的限制。应当指出的是,则对于本领域的普通技术人员来说,在不脱离本发明构思的前提下,还可以做出若干变形和改进,这些都属于本发明的保护范围。因此,本发明专利的保护范围应以所附权利要求为准。The above-mentioned embodiments only express several implementation modes of the present invention, and the description thereof is relatively specific and detailed, but should not be construed as limiting the patent scope of the present invention. It should be noted that those skilled in the art can make several modifications and improvements without departing from the concept of the present invention, and these all belong to the protection scope of the present invention. Therefore, the protection scope of the patent for the present invention should be based on the appended claims.
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