CN103761422A - Public health service system model building system and method based on system dynamics - Google Patents
Public health service system model building system and method based on system dynamics Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a public health service system model building system and method based on system dynamics. The public health service system model building system based on the system dynamics comprises a disease control subsystem and a health law enforcement and inspection subsystem. The disease control subsystem is used for simulating the capital of a disease prevention and control system, the resource operation situation and the amount of provided disease prevention and control public products. The health law enforcement and inspection subsystem is used for simulating the capital of a health law enforcement and inspection system, the resource operation situation and the amount of provided disease prevention and control public products. A system dynamic model of a public health service system is built through mutual influence, mutual constraint and interaction of input and output variables of the disease control subsystem and the health law enforcement and inspection subsystem. The problem that an existing model cannot reflect the complicated dynamic relation of system factors and the problem that a social system cannot perform a real test and a long-term test are solved.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to data model and build field, particularly a kind of Public Health Services System model construction system and method based on system dynamics.
Background technology
The most important progress of 20th century human health should be given the credit to sanitarian development, and this viewpoint has not only obtained the common recognition of many countries in the world, in the health of Ye various countries and the practice of sound development, has obtained fully proving.Public Health Services System (PHS) is that to realize public health service function and improve public health resources benefit be object, is intended to protect public health and the activity of prevention from suffering from the diseases.But due to problems such as the impact of certain areas long-term " heavily doctor is light anti-" thought and Public Health Services System compensation mechanism, these have all affected public health should powerful performance.Particularly, in 2003, the crisis of SARS epidemic situation brings the experiences and lessons of our dark pain especially, and the self-examination of leaving our many dark pains for, has caused that government, society and the masses are to sanitarian extensive concern.The State Council of the < < Central Committee of the Communist Party of China that central authorities in 2009 promulgate has pulled open the China's reform 30 years prelude of new medical reform afterwards about suggestion > >, the recent emphasis embodiment of < < medical and health system reform (2009--2011) the > > of in-depth medical and health system reform, clear and definite promote basic public health service progressively equalization turn to one of five emphasis reforms of medical and health system.
In order to promote the development of public health system, formed part conceptual model, the influence factor of public health system is carried out to qualitative analysis, but there is following defect in existing public health system conceptual model:
For the conceptual model of public health system by analysis forming of public health system, some analyses the influence factor of public health system, but all concentrate on top layer influence factor, rest in one-side impact, feedback influence and dynamic interaction relation between cannot simulation factor, cannot carry out the systematic study that internal system and outside, structural considerations and scientific factors, top layer factor and Inherent meaning combine.Not enough to the explanation of deep influence public health system mechanism, cannot obtain and promote the policy intervention " target spot " of public health system development and the test basis of Intervention density.
Public Health Services System is an extremely complicated large system, unreliable to the intuition of this type systematic and subjective judgement, actual experiment is close to infeasible, thereby need to seek help from the computer simulation based on system dynamics, setting up dynamically can feedback model, search the factor that affects Public Health Services System performance, propose to solve countermeasure and suggestion.
Summary of the invention
The present invention is directed to prior art above shortcomings, a kind of Public Health Services System model construction system based on system dynamics is provided, the problem that can not reflect complicated dynamic relationship between system factor to solve existing model, and social system can not truly be tested, the problem of test of long duration.
The present invention is achieved through the following technical solutions:
A Public Health Services System model construction system based on system dynamics, comprising: disease control subsystem and Health Law Enforcement and Supervision subsystem;
Disease control subsystem in order to simulate the capital of system for disease prevention and control, the amount of the operation conditions of resource and the prevention and control of diseases public product that provides;
Health Law Enforcement and Supervision subsystem in order to simulate the capital of Health Law Enforcement and Supervision system, the amount of the operation conditions of resource and the prevention and control of diseases public product that provides;
Wherein, mutual input, the output variable by disease control subsystem and Health Law Enforcement and Supervision subsystem influence each other and mutually restrict, interacting builds the system dynamics model of Public Health Services System.
Preferably, input, output variable include: level variable, flow variable, auxiliary variable and initializaing variable.
Preferably, level variable comprises: storage facility located at processing plant storage, dealer inventory amount, hospital inventory amount and total dosage;
Flow variable comprises: turnout, circulation, amount of purchase and dosage;
Auxiliary variable comprises: Irrational Use of Drugs, the returning rate that exceeds the quata, current dosage, profits through circulation, profits through circulation rate, circulation gross profit, manufacturer's Maximum Current Profit and the current returning of medical worker;
Initializaing variable comprises: initial dealer inventory, initial production stock, initial hospital inventory, fixed cost of production and average returning.
The present invention separately provides a kind of Public Health Services System model building method based on system dynamics, the problem that can not reflect complicated dynamic relationship between system factor to solve existing model, and social system can not truly be tested, the problem of test of long duration, the Public Health Services System model construction system of the method based on system dynamics, execution comprises the following steps:
S1, determine model primary variables, in the variation range of variate-value, first variable on probation carries out model debugging, and model behavior during without marked change, has been determined this variable, and variable comprises: level variable, flow variable, auxiliary variable and initializaing variable;
S2, establishing model primary variables math equation;
Level variable math equation:
L?LEV(t)=LEV(t-Δt)+Δt×[R
1(t-Δt)-R
2(t-Δt)]Δt>0；
N?LEV(t)|
t=0=LEV(t
0)；
Wherein, R
1(t-Δ t), R
2(t-Δ t) is respectively rate of inflow and rate of outflow;
Flow variable math equation:
R?RAT(t)=f
1[LEV(t),A(t),RAT
1(t-Δt)]；
Wherein LEV (t) represents that equation the right level variable should be t and is constantly worth; A (t) represents that equation the right should be t containing auxiliary variable and is constantly worth; RAT
1(t-Δ t) represents that equation the right should be t-Δ t containing flow variable and is constantly worth; Above t and t-Δ t definite order that depends on the calculating of emulation variations per hour constantly;
The output capacity parameter * of output capacity=disease control mechanism of disease control mechanism disease control mechanism manpower total amount
(1-disease control mechanism capital bullet property coefficient)* disease control mechanism capital total amount
disease control mechanism capital elasticity coefficient;
Output capacity parameter * law enforcement agency of output capacity=law enforcement agency of law enforcement agency manpower total amount
(1-law enforcement agency capital bullet property coefficient)* law enforcement agency's capital total amount
law enforcement agency's capital elasticity coefficient;
The personnel of disease control mechanism take in ratio=single order message delay function (disease control mechanism is other system of gross emolument/society gross emolument per capita per capita, and time step * 2); Wherein, " disease control mechanism per capita other system of gross emolument/society per capita gross emolument " is level and smooth variable; Time step * 2 is variable smoothingtime, two step-lengths; The personnel of disease control mechanism take in than being the smooth value of single order index;
The personnel of law enforcement agency take in ratio=single order message delay function (law enforcement agency is other system of emolument/society gross emolument per capita per capita, and time step * 2) wherein, and " law enforcement agency per capita other system of emolument/society per capita gross emolument " is level and smooth variable; Time step * 2 is variable smoothingtime, two step-lengths; The personnel of law enforcement agency take in than being the smooth value of single order index;
Disease control mechanism active service amount=minimum function (prevention and cure of endemic diseases workload, prevention and cure of endemic diseases demand)+minimum function (27 kinds of disease incidence amounts, 27 kinds of disease treatment amounts)+minimum function (the planned immunization service amount of providing, planned immunization demand)+minimum function (accident monitoring amount, accident demand)+minimum function (laboratory is detected and other workload, and laboratory is detected and other demand);
Health law enforcement real work amount=minimum function (environmental health monitoring and surveilliance workload, environmental health monitoring and surveilliance work requirements amount)+minimum function (services monitoring amount, labour hygiene monitoring requirements amount)+minimum function (monitoring for food hygiene workload, monitoring for food hygiene demand)+minimum function (school hygiene monitoring amount, school hygiene monitoring requirements amount)+minimum function (to Training of Personnel for Industry and other workload, to Training of Personnel for Industry and other work requirements amount);
S3, write out main function and variable, input variable is carried out to assignment, obtain the system dynamics model of Public Health Services System;
S4, the system dynamics model of Public Health Services System is debugged.
Preferably, initializaing variable is chosen the mean value of day part.
Preferably, step S1 comprises:
For initializaing variable, take three kinds for the treatment of methods: the one, matching historical data; The 2nd, at balance place by model initialization; The 3rd, special growth or degenerative process are made to initialization process.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Shown in Fig. 1 is structural representation of the present invention;
Shown in Fig. 2 is process flow diagram of the present invention;
Shown in Fig. 3 is the manpower total amount reason tree schematic diagram of disease control subsystem of the present invention;
Shown in Fig. 4 is the manpower total amount bearing-age tree schematic diagram of disease control subsystem of the present invention;
Shown in Fig. 5 is that the public product of disease control subsystem of the present invention provides rate experiment schematic diagram;
Shown in Fig. 6 is the public product amount of the providing experiment schematic diagram of disease control subsystem of the present invention;
Shown in Fig. 7 is that the public product of Health Law Enforcement and Supervision subsystem of the present invention provides rate experiment schematic diagram;
Shown in Fig. 8 is the public product amount of the providing experiment schematic diagram of Health Law Enforcement and Supervision subsystem of the present invention.
Embodiment
Below with reference to accompanying drawing of the present invention; technical scheme in the embodiment of the present invention is carried out to clear, complete description and discussion; obviously; as described herein is only a part of example of the present invention; it is not whole examples; embodiment based in the present invention, the every other embodiment that those of ordinary skills obtain under the prerequisite of not making creative work, belongs to protection scope of the present invention.
For the ease of the understanding to the embodiment of the present invention, below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, take specific embodiment and be further explained as example, and each embodiment does not form the restriction to the embodiment of the present invention.
Please refer to Fig. 1, the Public Health Services System model construction system based on system dynamics, comprising: disease control subsystem 1 and Health Law Enforcement and Supervision subsystem 2; Disease control subsystem 1 in order to simulate the capital of system for disease prevention and control, the amount of the operation conditions of resource and the prevention and control of diseases public product that provides; Health Law Enforcement and Supervision subsystem 2 in order to simulate the capital of Health Law Enforcement and Supervision system, the amount of the operation conditions of resource and the prevention and control of diseases public product that provides; Wherein, mutual input, the output variable by disease control subsystem and Health Law Enforcement and Supervision subsystem influence each other and mutually restrict, interacting builds the system dynamics model of Public Health Services System.
Please refer to Fig. 2, workflow of the present invention is as follows:
1. determine model primary variables
Public Health Services System model variable is numerous and difficult definite.Variable is selected to combine with model running.This model is determined system variable by experimental analogic method, and in the variation range of variate-value, first variable on probation carries out model debugging roughly, and model behavior during without marked change, has been determined this variable.
Variable in model has level variable, flow variable, auxiliary variable and initializaing variable etc.For simplified model parameter, the very not significant parameter of those temporal evolutions is also taken as to constant value approx.For initializaing variable, this model has been taked three kinds for the treatment of methods: the one, and matching historical data; The 2nd, at balance place by model initialization; The 3rd, some special growth (or decline) process is made to initialization process.Consider that determining system action impact of initializaing variable is larger, for the larger data of fluctuation in real system, done some necessary technical finesses, choose the mean value of period.
This model parameter estimation has adopted following methods:
(1) applied statistics data, survey data are determined parameter;
(2) some conventional mathematical methods, as econometrics, gray prediction etc.;
(3) utilize the cause-effect relationship analogy between factor in model to calculate;
(4) expert assessment and evaluation.
Level variable: comprise storage facility located at processing plant storage, dealer inventory amount, hospital inventory amount and total dosage etc.
Flow variable: comprise turnout, circulation, amount of purchase and dosage etc.
Auxiliary variable: comprise Irrational Use of Drugs, the returning rate that exceeds the quata, current dosage, profits through circulation, profits through circulation rate, circulation gross profit, manufacturer's Maximum Current Profit and the current returning of medical worker etc.
Initializaing variable: comprise initial dealer inventory, initial production stock, initial hospital inventory, fixed cost of production and average returning etc.
According in the situation that input variable is adjusted, the variable of observing is trend over time, analyze input variable to the size of the influence direction of drug price and acting force (for example, in the situation that its dependent variable is constant, repeatedly adjust government the initial input of Public Health Services System is tested, observe with disease control public product curve of output that rate, disease control mechanism public product amount, law enforcement agency's public product provide rate, law enforcement agency's public product amount trend is over time provided.Find: the public product amount that the public product of Public Health Services System provides rate, provide all significantly improves along with the increase of government's input amount.When government reaches 10 times of current input to the input of system for disease prevention and control, the input of Health Law Enforcement and Supervision system is reached to 4 times of current input, the public product of system for disease prevention and control provides rate just can reach 75% left and right, and the public product of Health Inspection system provides rate just can reach 90% left and right.Intervene results suggest: improve merely the input of government to public health service mechanism, can within a period of time, improve public product rate is provided, but in the long term because be subject to the impact that accurate public product provides, system public product provide rate and the amount of providing totally on a declining curve.Therefore need classification and the scope of clear and definite Public Health Services System, ban or limit paid service and accurate public service in Public Health Services System).
2. establishing model primary variables math equation
System dynamics is dealt with problems, and on the basis of qualitative analysis, is finally to set up Quantitative Simulation model, and conceptual model above and the qualitative analysis of logical model lay the foundation for setting up system dynamics quantitative model.System dynamics variable math equation be for set up on computers can emulation quantitative model, therefore, math equation must meet necessary condition that can emulation.
Level variable math equation:
L LEV (t)=LEV (t-Δ t)+Δ t * [R
1(t-Δ t)-R
2(t-Δ t)] Δ t>0 (formula 1)
N LEV (t) |
t=0=LEV (t
0) (formula 2)
Wherein, R
1(t-Δ t), R
2(t-Δ t) is respectively rate of inflow and rate of outflow;
Flow variable math equation:
R RAT (t)=f
1[LEV (t), A (t), RAT
1(t-Δ t)] (formula 3)
Wherein LEV (t) represents that equation the right level variable should be t and is constantly worth; A (t) represents that equation the right should be t containing auxiliary variable and is constantly worth; RAT
1(t-Δ t) represents that equation the right should be t-Δ t containing flow variable and is constantly worth; Above t and t-Δ t definite order that depends on the calculating of emulation variations per hour constantly.
(1) manufacturing enterprise causes the establishment of problem subsystem primary variables math equation
The output capacity parameter * of output capacity=disease control mechanism of disease control mechanism disease control mechanism manpower total amount
(1-disease control mechanism capital bullet property coefficient)* disease control mechanism capital total amount ^ disease control mechanism capital elasticity coefficient;
Output capacity parameter * law enforcement agency of output capacity=law enforcement agency of law enforcement agency manpower total amount
(1-law enforcement agency capital bullet property coefficient)* law enforcement agency's capital total amount ^ law enforcement agency capital elasticity coefficient.
(2) smooth function determines
The personnel of disease control mechanism take in ratio=single order message delay function (disease control mechanism is other system of gross emolument/society gross emolument per capita per capita, and time step * 2); Wherein, " disease control mechanism per capita other system of gross emolument/society per capita gross emolument " is level and smooth variable; Time step * 2 is variable smoothingtime, two step-lengths; The personnel of disease control mechanism take in than being the smooth value of single order index;
The personnel of law enforcement agency take in ratio=single order message delay function (law enforcement agency is other system of emolument/society gross emolument per capita per capita, and time step * 2) wherein, and " law enforcement agency per capita other system of emolument/society per capita gross emolument " is level and smooth variable; Time step * 2 is variable smoothingtime, two step-lengths; The personnel of law enforcement agency take in than being the smooth value of single order index;
(3) logical function determines
Personnel take in than for the smooth value of single order index;
Disease control mechanism active service amount=minimum function (prevention and cure of endemic diseases workload, prevention and cure of endemic diseases demand)+minimum function (27 kinds of disease incidence amounts, 27 kinds of disease treatment amounts)+minimum function (the planned immunization service amount of providing, planned immunization demand)+minimum function (accident monitoring amount, accident demand)+minimum function (laboratory is detected and other workload, and laboratory is detected and other demand);
Health law enforcement real work amount=minimum function (environmental health monitoring and surveilliance workload, environmental health monitoring and surveilliance work requirements amount)+minimum function (services monitoring amount, labour hygiene monitoring requirements amount)+minimum function (monitoring for food hygiene workload, monitoring for food hygiene demand)+minimum function (school hygiene monitoring amount, school hygiene monitoring requirements amount)+minimum function (to Training of Personnel for Industry and other workload, to Training of Personnel for Industry and other work requirements amount);
3. write out main function and variable
The main function of table 1 Public Health Services System model and variable
4, use Vensim DSS running software model system, at Vensim DSS emulation platform, variable defining variable equation are set, link the backfeed loop between variable and variable, system model is debugged.
Public Health Services System model tormulation based on system dynamics the reason that changes of system be feedback arrangement, system dynamics is by introducing the factors such as level variable (Level), rate variable (Rate), information flow, be configured to more deep system action graph of a relation (flow graph), more complete, the overall picture of descriptive system formation, system action and system element interaction mechanism particularly.According to being related to design system flow graph between inner each factor of medical market development system, its object is mainly characteristic and the feature of the different variablees that could not reflect in each cause-effect relationship of reflection system, make the mechanism of action of internal system more clear, according to composition design disease control subsystem and the Health Law Enforcement and Supervision subsystem of Public Health Services System, these two subsystems by mutual input, output variable, influence each other and mutually restrict, interacting builds the system dynamics system dynamics model of Public Health Services System.Its object is mainly characteristic and the feature of the different variablees that could not reflect in each cause-effect relationship of reflection system, make the mechanism of action of internal system more clear, then by the further quantification of relation in flow graph, realize the policy simulation object of Public Health Services System.
5, mutual relationship between situational variables
Use the policlinic of structure and the reason of community's interactive model tree and bearing-age tree functional analysis to affect the factor of each variable and the mutual relationship between factor.By reason, set analysis, can list the variable acting on selected variable, and can trace back to all variablees of the influence factor most end one-level of given variable, thus the reason of given variable tree has formed a subsystem, and the external action of these variablees has determined the variation of given variable.The reason tree analysis chart of Tu3Shi disease control mechanism manpower total amount.Bearing-age tree analysis can, for selected variable, be enumerated the variable of its effect; Then for these variablees, then enumerate the variable of its effect; The like, forward is reviewed step by step, until there is the one-level of given variable.Thereby the bearing-age tree of given variable has formed a subsystem, represent that named variable is for the final effect of whole system.The bearing-age tree analysis chart of Tu4Shi disease control mechanism manpower total amount.
6, performance model is carried out simulation and intervention study
Please refer to Fig. 5 to Fig. 8, use the Public Health Services System model building, simulation disease control public product provides rate, disease control mechanism public product amount, law enforcement agency's public product that rate, the law enforcement agency's public product amount of providing variation tendency are provided, test 1, test 2, test 3, test 4 parts are test result, and current actual result.Observation in the situation that change government few to the initial outlay of Public Health Services System to current 0.5 times, 2 times, 4 times, 10 times, disease control mechanism public product provides rate, the public product amount of providing, law enforcement agency's public product that the trend of rate, law enforcement agency's public product amount of providing is provided, and clearly affects the key factor that rate and the public product amount of providing are provided Public Health Services System public product.For example test 4 parts: when raising government reaches current 10 times to the input of system for disease prevention and control, the public product of system for disease prevention and control provides rate just can reach 75% left and right, yet in the long term, affected by accurate public product, the amount of providing of system public product is totally on a declining curve.
Use the Public Health Services System model based on system dynamics building to carry out emulation to Public Health Services System, analyze the relation of Public Health Services System inner structure and its dynamic behaviour, and find out the countermeasure of dealing with problems, be equivalent to " policy ".Can carry out policy experiment by performance model, by changing the variation tendency of the assignment observing system Output rusults of variable, to test the result of current action, decision-making or policy.The present invention have advantages of can simulate Multiinputoutput complication system, can carry out Long-Term Simulations, solved the problem that social system is not suitable for doing direct experiment.
The above; be only the present invention's embodiment preferably, but protection scope of the present invention do not limit to therewith, be anyly familiar with in technical scope that those skilled in the art disclose in the present invention; the variation that can expect easily or replacement, within all should being encompassed in protection scope of the present invention.Therefore, protection scope of the present invention should be as the criterion with the protection domain of claim.
Claims (6)
1. the Public Health Services System model construction system based on system dynamics, is characterized in that, comprising: disease control subsystem and Health Law Enforcement and Supervision subsystem;
Described disease control subsystem in order to simulate the capital of system for disease prevention and control, the amount of the operation conditions of resource and the prevention and control of diseases public product that provides;
Described Health Law Enforcement and Supervision subsystem in order to simulate the capital of Health Law Enforcement and Supervision system, the amount of the operation conditions of resource and the prevention and control of diseases public product that provides;
Described disease control subsystem and described Health Law Enforcement and Supervision subsystem form the system dynamics model of Public Health Services System jointly.
2. the Public Health Services System model construction system based on system dynamics according to claim 1, is characterized in that, described input, output variable include: level variable, flow variable, auxiliary variable and initializaing variable.
3. the Public Health Services System model construction system based on system dynamics according to claim 2, is characterized in that:
Level variable comprises: storage facility located at processing plant storage, dealer inventory amount, hospital inventory amount and total dosage;
Flow variable comprises: turnout, circulation, amount of purchase and dosage;
Auxiliary variable comprises: Irrational Use of Drugs, the returning rate that exceeds the quata, current dosage, profits through circulation, profits through circulation rate, circulation gross profit, manufacturer's Maximum Current Profit and the current returning of medical worker;
Initializaing variable comprises: initial dealer inventory, initial production stock, initial hospital inventory, fixed cost of production and average returning.
4. the Public Health Services System model building method based on system dynamics, is characterized in that, the Public Health Services System model construction system based on system dynamics as claimed in claim 1 is provided, and execution comprises the following steps:
S1, determine model primary variables, in the variation range of variate-value, first variable on probation carries out model debugging, and model behavior during without marked change, has been determined this variable, and variable comprises: level variable, flow variable, auxiliary variable and initializaing variable;
S2, establishing model primary variables math equation;
Level variable math equation:
LEV(t)=LEV(t-Δt)+Δt×[R
1(t-Δt)-R
2(t-Δt)]Δt>0；
LEV(t)|
t=0=LEV(t
0)；
Wherein, R
1(t-Δ t), R
2(t-Δ t) is respectively rate of inflow and rate of outflow;
Flow variable math equation:
RAT(t)=f
1[LEV(t),A(t),RAT
1(t-Δt)]；
Wherein LEV (t) represents that equation the right level variable should be t and is constantly worth; A (t) represents that equation the right should be t containing auxiliary variable and is constantly worth; RAT
1(t-Δ t) represents that equation the right should be t-Δ t containing flow variable and is constantly worth; Above t and t-Δ t definite order that depends on the calculating of emulation variations per hour constantly;
The output capacity parameter * of output capacity=disease control mechanism of disease control mechanism disease control mechanism manpower total amount
(1-disease control mechanism capital bullet property coefficient)* disease control mechanism capital total amount ^ disease control mechanism capital elasticity coefficient;
Output capacity parameter * law enforcement agency of output capacity=law enforcement agency of law enforcement agency manpower total amount (
1-law enforcement agency capital elasticity coefficient)* law enforcement agency's capital total amount ^ law enforcement agency capital elasticity coefficient;
The personnel of disease control mechanism take in ratio=single order message delay function (disease control mechanism is other system of gross emolument/society gross emolument per capita per capita, and time step * 2); Wherein, " disease control mechanism per capita other system of gross emolument/society per capita gross emolument " is level and smooth variable; Time step * 2 is variable smoothingtime, two step-lengths; The personnel of disease control mechanism take in than being the smooth value of single order index;
The personnel of law enforcement agency take in ratio=single order message delay function (law enforcement agency is other system of emolument/society gross emolument per capita per capita, and time step * 2) wherein, and " law enforcement agency per capita other system of emolument/society per capita gross emolument " is level and smooth variable; Time step * 2 is variable smoothingtime, two step-lengths; The personnel of law enforcement agency take in than being the smooth value of single order index;
Disease control mechanism active service amount=minimum function (prevention and cure of endemic diseases workload, prevention and cure of endemic diseases demand)+minimum function (27 kinds of disease incidence amounts, 27 kinds of disease treatment amounts)+minimum function (the planned immunization service amount of providing, planned immunization demand)+minimum function (accident monitoring amount, accident demand)+minimum function (laboratory is detected and other workload, and laboratory is detected and other demand);
Health law enforcement real work amount=minimum function (environmental health monitoring and surveilliance workload, environmental health monitoring and surveilliance work requirements amount)+minimum function (services monitoring amount, labour hygiene monitoring requirements amount)+minimum function (monitoring for food hygiene workload, monitoring for food hygiene demand)+minimum function (school hygiene monitoring amount, school hygiene monitoring requirements amount)+minimum function (to Training of Personnel for Industry and other workload, to Training of Personnel for Industry and other work requirements amount);
S3, write out main function and variable, input variable is carried out to assignment, obtain the system dynamics model of Public Health Services System;
S4, the system dynamics model of Public Health Services System is debugged.
5. the Public Health Services System model building method based on system dynamics according to claim 4, is characterized in that, described initializaing variable is chosen the mean value of day part.
6. the Public Health Services System model building method based on system dynamics according to claim 4, is characterized in that, step S1 comprises:
For initializaing variable, take three kinds for the treatment of methods: the one, matching historical data; The 2nd, at balance place by model initialization; The 3rd, special growth or degenerative process are made to initialization process.
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| CN107480455A (en) * | 2017-08-21 | 2017-12-15 | 中国人民解放军第二军医大学 | Potential medical demand conversion system and construction method based on system dynamics |
| CN108899079A (en) * | 2018-06-27 | 2018-11-27 | 中国人民解放军第二军医大学 | The mobilization system and method for civilian hospital |
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