CN112633765A - Method, device, equipment and storage medium for nuclear security risk assessment - Google Patents

Method, device, equipment and storage medium for nuclear security risk assessment Download PDF

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CN112633765A
CN112633765A CN202011643409.7A CN202011643409A CN112633765A CN 112633765 A CN112633765 A CN 112633765A CN 202011643409 A CN202011643409 A CN 202011643409A CN 112633765 A CN112633765 A CN 112633765A
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CN112633765B (en
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杨丽芳
韩叶良
杨志民
武朝辉
杨长杰
赵泽雨
高雪梅
刘立坤
周志波
谭西早
李多宏
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State Nuclear Security Technology Center
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Abstract

The application discloses a method, a device, equipment and a storage medium for nuclear security risk assessment. The method specifically comprises the following steps: acquiring event element data and target event information in a nuclear security event library; determining a risk value of the target event by using a preset risk algorithm according to the target event information and the event element data; respectively determining facility risk values of different facilities for the target event and region risk values of different regions for the target event according to the risk values of the target event; and carrying out data fusion on the risk value of the target event, the facility risk value and the region risk value to obtain a result of the nuclear security risk assessment. According to the embodiment of the application, the assessment of the nuclear security risk can be refined to the event level, the connotation of the nuclear security risk assessment can be more comprehensive, the risk assessment is automatically carried out on related events by combining a preset algorithm, and the result effectiveness and accuracy of the nuclear security risk assessment can be improved.

Description

Method, device, equipment and storage medium for nuclear security risk assessment
Technical Field
The application belongs to the technical field of computers, and particularly relates to a method, a device, equipment and a storage medium for nuclear security risk assessment.
Background
The nuclear security risk is effectively evaluated, and the nuclear security work can be better enhanced, so that dangerous events such as nuclear-related accidents are prevented.
At present, most of risk assessment in the field of nuclear security is based on subjective assessment methods such as expert consultation methods, and all levels of nuclear security indexes related to the risk assessment are not comprehensive and objective. Therefore, the result of the nuclear security risk assessment is not high in validity and accuracy.
Disclosure of Invention
The embodiment of the application provides a method, a device, equipment and a computer storage medium for nuclear security risk assessment, which can refine assessment of nuclear security risk to an event level, can make the connotation of nuclear security risk assessment more comprehensive, and automatically perform risk assessment on related events by combining a preset algorithm, so that the result validity and accuracy of nuclear security risk assessment can be improved.
In a first aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a method for nuclear security risk assessment, including:
acquiring event element data and target event information in a nuclear security event library;
determining a risk value of the target event by using a preset risk algorithm according to the target event information and the event element data;
respectively determining facility risk values of different facilities for the target event and region risk values of different regions for the target event according to the risk values of the target event;
and performing data fusion on the risk value of the target event, the facility risk value and the region risk value to obtain the result of the nuclear security risk assessment.
Optionally, the target events include a radioactive distribution event, an attack event, and a simple nuclear explosion event.
Optionally, the determining a target event risk value by using a preset risk algorithm according to the target event information and the event element data includes:
determining a first probability, a first danger coefficient and a first event parameter of a target event according to the target event information and event factor data;
and calculating the target event risk value according to the first probability, the first risk coefficient and the first event parameter.
Optionally, when the target event is a radioactive distribution event, the first event parameter includes: one or more of a radioactive source stolen parameter, a radioactive source transport parameter, a protection effectiveness parameter and an attack effectiveness parameter;
when the target event is an attack event, the first event parameter includes: one or more of a protection validity parameter and an attack validity parameter;
when the target event is a simple nuclear explosion event, the first event parameter comprises: the method comprises the following steps of obtaining one or more of simple nuclear explosion material stolen parameters, simple nuclear explosion material transportation parameters, protection effectiveness parameters and attack effectiveness parameters.
Optionally, the facility risk values include a nuclear technology utilization unit risk value, a fixed nuclear facility risk value, a transportation private line risk value, and a border facility risk value;
determining the facility risk value of the target event of different facilities according to the risk value of the target event comprises the following steps:
calculating a unit risk value of nuclear technology utilization according to the risk value of the radioactive distribution event and a preset distribution risk weight value;
calculating a fixed nuclear facility risk value according to the risk value of the attack event, a preset attack risk weight value, the risk value of the simple nuclear explosion event and a preset simple nuclear explosion event risk weight value;
determining a risk value of the special transport line attack event according to the risk value of the attack event, and calculating the special transport line risk value by using the risk value of the special transport line attack event and a preset special transport line risk weight value;
determining the risk value of the radioactive distribution event of the border facility according to the risk value of the radioactive distribution event, and determining the risk value of the simple nuclear explosion event of the border facility according to the risk value of the simple nuclear explosion event;
calculating a border facility risk value according to the risk value and a preset distribution risk weight value of the radioactive distribution event of the border facility, and the risk value and a preset simple nuclear explosion event risk weight value of the simple nuclear explosion event of the border facility;
and performing data fusion on the nuclear technology by using a unit risk value, a fixed nuclear facility risk value, a special transportation line risk value and a border facility risk value to obtain the facility risk value.
Optionally, the region risk value includes an attacked risk value of the region and a stolen risk value of the region;
the determining the region risk values of the target event in different regions according to the risk values of the target event includes:
calculating an attacked risk value of the region according to the risk value of the attacking event of the region, the number of the fixed facilities of the region and the preset attack risk weight value;
calculating a stolen risk value of the area according to the risk value and a preset distribution risk weight value of the radioactive distribution event of the area, the risk value and a preset simple nuclear explosion event risk weight value of the simple nuclear explosion event of the area;
and carrying out data fusion on the attacked risk value and the stolen risk value of the region to obtain the region risk value.
Optionally, the region risk value further includes an attacked risk value of a country, a stolen risk value of a country, a private transportation line risk value of a country, and an illegal sale risk value of a country;
the determining the region risk value of the target event in different regions according to the risk value of the target event further comprises:
calculating the sum of the attacked risk values of the regions of the country to obtain the attacked risk value of the country;
calculating the sum of the theft risk values of the regions of the country to obtain the theft risk value of the country;
calculating the risk value of the special transportation line of the country according to the risk value of the special transportation line attack event of the country, the quantity of the special transportation line of the country and the preset attack risk weight value;
calculating an illegal sale risk value of the country according to the risk value of the radioactive distribution event of the country and the preset distribution risk weight value, the border facility number of the country, the risk value of the simple nuclear explosion event and the preset simple nuclear explosion event risk weight value;
and carrying out data fusion on the attacked risk value of the country, the stolen risk value of the country, the special transportation line risk value of the country and the illegal sale risk value of the country to obtain the region risk value.
In a second aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides an apparatus for nuclear security risk assessment, where the apparatus includes:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring event element data in the security event library and target event information;
the determining module is used for determining a risk value of the target event by using a preset risk algorithm according to the target event information and the event element data;
the determining module is further configured to determine facility risk values of different facilities where the target event occurs and region risk values of different regions where the target event occurs, respectively, according to the risk values of the target event;
and the fusion module is used for carrying out data fusion on the risk value of the target event, the facility risk value and the region risk value to obtain the result of the nuclear security risk assessment.
In a third aspect, an embodiment of the present application provides a device for nuclear security risk assessment, where the device includes:
a processor and a memory storing computer program instructions;
the processor, when executing the computer program instructions, implements the method for nuclear security risk assessment as described in the first aspect and optional aspects of the first aspect.
In a fourth aspect, the present application provides a computer storage medium having computer program instructions stored thereon, where the computer program instructions, when executed by a processor, implement the method for nuclear security risk assessment according to the first aspect and the optional first aspect.
The method, the device, the equipment and the computer storage medium for evaluating the nuclear security risk can be used for determining the target event risk value by combining the event element data and the target event in the nuclear security event library and utilizing a preset risk algorithm. And respectively determining a facility risk value, a region risk value and a country risk value based on the target event risk value. And finally, performing data fusion processing on each risk value to obtain a result of the nuclear security risk assessment. Based on different nuclear security event scenes, the risk assessment is realized by combining event element data in the nuclear security event library, namely basic event data. Therefore, the assessment of the nuclear security risk is refined to the event level, the connotation of the nuclear security risk assessment can be more comprehensive, the risk assessment is automatically carried out on the related events by combining the preset algorithm, and the result effectiveness and accuracy of the nuclear security risk assessment can be improved.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present application, the drawings needed to be used in the embodiments of the present application will be briefly described below, and for those skilled in the art, other drawings can be obtained according to the drawings without creative efforts.
FIG. 1 is a schematic flow diagram of a method for nuclear security risk assessment provided by some embodiments of the present application;
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart of determining facility risk values for different facilities for occurrence of a target event, as provided by some embodiments of the present application;
fig. 3 is a schematic flow chart illustrating a process of determining a regional risk value of the target event occurring in different regions according to some embodiments of the present application;
fig. 4 is a schematic flow chart illustrating a process of determining a regional risk value of the target event occurring in different regions according to some embodiments of the present application;
FIG. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of an apparatus for nuclear security risk assessment according to another embodiment of the present application;
fig. 6 is a schematic structural diagram of an apparatus for nuclear security risk assessment according to another embodiment of the present application.
Detailed Description
Features and exemplary embodiments of various aspects of the present application will be described in detail below, and in order to make objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present application more apparent, the present application will be further described in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. It should be understood that the specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the present application and are not intended to limit the present application. It will be apparent to one skilled in the art that the present application may be practiced without some of these specific details. The following description of the embodiments is merely intended to provide a better understanding of the present application by illustrating examples thereof.
It is noted that, herein, relational terms such as first and second, and the like may be used solely to distinguish one entity or action from another entity or action without necessarily requiring or implying any actual such relationship or order between such entities or actions. Also, the terms "comprises," "comprising," or any other variation thereof, are intended to cover a non-exclusive inclusion, such that a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises a list of elements does not include only those elements but may include other elements not expressly listed or inherent to such process, method, article, or apparatus. Without further limitation, an element defined by the phrase "comprising … …" does not exclude the presence of other identical elements in a process, method, article, or apparatus that comprises the element.
Nuclear security refers to the prevention, reconnaissance, and management of theft, vandalism, unauthorized access, illegal transfer, or other malicious activities involving nuclear material and other radioactive materials or associated facilities, as well as the prevention of terrorist access to nuclear material, the destruction of nuclear facilities, and the like.
At present, most of the risk assessment aiming at the field of nuclear security is to score and sort the nuclear security work of each country by utilizing an expert consultation method. For example, The NTI Nuclear Security index of The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) in The United states.
However, in the related art, the nuclear security risk assessment methods involve less comprehensive and objective nuclear security indexes at all levels, and the assessment process is mostly based on manual data processing, so that the result of the nuclear security risk assessment is not high in validity and accuracy.
In order to solve the prior art problem, embodiments of the present application provide a method, an apparatus, a device, and a computer storage medium for evaluating a security risk, which can evaluate the security risk by combining event element data, i.e., basic event data, in a security event library based on different security event scenarios. Therefore, the assessment of the nuclear security risk is refined to the event level, the connotation of the nuclear security risk assessment can be more comprehensive, the risk assessment is automatically carried out on the related events by combining the preset algorithm, and the result effectiveness and accuracy of the nuclear security risk assessment can be improved.
The following describes a method, an apparatus, a device, and a computer storage medium for nuclear security risk assessment according to an embodiment of the present application with reference to the drawings. It should be noted that these examples are not intended to limit the scope of the present disclosure.
First, a method for evaluating a nuclear security risk provided in an embodiment of the present application is described below.
Fig. 1 is a schematic flowchart of a method for risk assessment of nuclear security according to an embodiment of the present disclosure. As shown in fig. 1, in an embodiment of the present application, the method for nuclear security risk assessment may include the following steps:
s101: and acquiring event element data and target event information in the nuclear security event library.
The nuclear security event repository may include: one or more of a radiation source database (nuclear technology utilizing a unit database), a nuclear facility database, a material (WG material) database that can be used to make simple nuclear explosions, a sensitive landmark database, a transportation line database, a boundary port database, an adversary database, a safeguard measure database, an attack mode database, a transportation mode database, and a safeguard measure database.
In some embodiments, the core security event repository may be an event repository generated from a core security-related event chain.
The nuclear security event repository may include a variety of event element data. For example, the radiation source database may include event factor data such as geographic data for the radiation source, radiation source type data, facility level data associated with the radiation source, and the like.
Illustratively, the core facility database may include event element data such as core facility management partition data, core facility protection data, and the like.
Illustratively, the WG material database may include event element data such as nuclear material type data, nuclear material management level data, protection means information data, and the like.
Illustratively, the core security event repository may also include event element data such as core security policies, regulations, and technical specifications.
In some embodiments, according to the core security context, an event corresponding to the core security context may be determined. Target events may include radiological dispersal events, attack events, and improvised nuclear explosion events. Wherein the improvised nuclear explosion event may include a risk value for an event associated with the WG material.
S102: and determining a risk value of the target event by using a preset risk algorithm according to the target event information and the event element data.
From the acquired event factor data, a first probability, a first risk factor, and a first event parameter of the target event may be determined.
First, event element data corresponding to a target event may be selected from the acquired event element data. Then, a first probability, a first risk factor and a first event parameter of the target event are determined from the event factor data.
In some embodiments, the first probability may be a probability of occurrence of the target event. The first probability may be event element data directly acquired from the event library, or may be calculated based on the event element data in the event library.
In some embodiments, the first risk factor may be a risk indicator value for the occurrence of the target event. The first risk factor may be event element data directly obtained from the event library, or may be calculated based on the event element data in the event library.
And calculating a target event risk value according to the first probability, the first risk coefficient and the first event parameter.
In some embodiments, when the target event is a radioactive dissemination event, the first event parameters include: one or more of a radioactive source stolen parameter, a radioactive source transport parameter, a protection effectiveness parameter and an attack effectiveness parameter;
when the target event is an attack event, the first event parameters include: one or more of a protection validity parameter and an attack validity parameter;
when the target event is a simple nuclear explosion event, the first event parameters comprise: the method comprises the following steps of obtaining one or more of simple nuclear explosion material stolen parameters, simple nuclear explosion material transportation parameters, protection effectiveness parameters and attack effectiveness parameters. Wherein, the simple nuclear explosion material can be WG material.
S103: and respectively determining facility risk values of the target events of different facilities and region risk values of the target events of different regions according to the risk values of the target events.
The facility risk values include nuclear technology utilization unit risk values, fixed nuclear facility risk values, transit line risk values, and border facility risk values.
In some embodiments, the nuclear technology utilization unit risk value, the fixed nuclear facility risk value, and the transit line risk value may each be a single associated facility risk value.
In some embodiments, the border facility risk value may be an illegal sale risk value, including illegal sale risk values for facilities such as borders and ports.
In some embodiments, the regional risk values may include regional risk values and national risk values.
The region risk value may include an attacked risk value for the region and a stolen risk value for the region. The country risk value may include an attacked risk value of a country, a stolen risk value of a country, a transit line risk value of a country, and an illegal sale risk value of a country.
S104: and performing data fusion on the risk value of the target event, the facility risk value and the region risk value to obtain a result of the nuclear security risk assessment.
And performing data fusion on the risk value, the facility risk value and the region risk value of the target event to obtain each risk grade of the security event corresponding to the event element data and generate a corresponding risk evaluation result.
It is understood that the risk assessment results may include different categories of risk rating results such as risk value of the target event, facility risk value, and regional risk value.
In some embodiments, the risk level may be determined according to a preset rating rule, and for example, the risk level may include five levels. The preset rating rule may include a data distribution state of the risk value.
For example, if the nuclear security risk condition of a certain train station is to be evaluated, the relevant event element data of the train station may be obtained, and the above-mentioned S101 to S104 are executed, so that the nuclear security risk evaluation result of the train station may be obtained.
In summary, the method for evaluating the risk of the nuclear security event according to the embodiment of the present application can determine the risk value of the target event by using a preset risk algorithm in combination with the event element data and the target event in the nuclear security event library. And respectively determining a facility risk value, a region risk value and a country risk value based on the target event risk value. And finally, performing data fusion processing on each risk value to obtain a result of the nuclear security risk assessment. Based on different nuclear security event scenes, the risk assessment is realized by combining event element data in the nuclear security event library. Therefore, the assessment of the nuclear security risk is refined to the event level, the connotation of the nuclear security risk assessment can be more comprehensive, the risk assessment is automatically carried out on the related events by combining the preset algorithm, and the result effectiveness and accuracy of the nuclear security risk assessment can be improved.
In order to better understand the method for evaluating the nuclear security risk according to the embodiment of the present application, a process of determining a risk value, a facility risk value, and a regional risk value of a target event will be described in detail.
In some embodiments of the present application, the target events may include radiological dispersal events, attack events, and improvised nuclear explosion events. Thus, in executing S102, the risk values of the three target events may be calculated, respectively.
When the target event is a radioactive distribution event, the risk value of the radioactive distribution event can be calculated using the following equation (1).
RR＝PR×DR×FR； (1)
FR＝fR1×(1-fR2)×fR3×fR4×(1-fR5)×fR6
Wherein R isRRepresenting the risk value, P, of a radioactive distribution eventRRepresenting the probability of the occurrence of a radioactive distribution event, DR1Representing the risk coefficient of the radioactive distribution event, FRRepresenting a radioactive distribution event parameter. f. ofR1The parameter indicating the stolen radioactive source can be specifically the probability of stealing a certain radioactive source; f. ofR2Parameter representing the effectiveness of the stolen protection of radioactive source, fR3Opponent's ability estimate, f, representing a radiological dispersal eventR4Representing a parameter of the radiation source transport, which may be in particular the probability of a successful transport of a certain radiation source, fR5Protection validity parameter of the attacked object representing a radioactive distribution event, fR6Representing the effectiveness of the attack of the radioactive distribution event.
When the target event is an attack event, the risk value for the radioactive distribution event can be calculated using the following equation (2).
RA＝PA×DA×FA； (2)
FA＝fA1×fA2×(1-fA3)
Wherein R isARepresenting a risk value, P, of an attack event2Representing the probability of an attack event, D1Representing the risk coefficient of the attack event, FARepresenting an attack event parameter. f. ofA1An attack validity parameter representing an attack event; f. ofA2Adversary capability estimate, f, representing an attack eventA3A protection validity parameter representing an attack event.
When the target event is a simple nuclear explosion event, the risk value for the radioactive distribution event can be calculated using the following equation (3).
RI＝PI×DI×FI； (3)
FI＝fI1×(1-fI2)×fI3×fI4×(1-fI5)×fI6
Wherein R isIRepresenting a risk value, P, of a simple nuclear explosion eventRRepresenting the probability of occurrence of a simple nuclear explosion event, DI1Representing the risk factor of a simple nuclear explosion event, FIRepresenting the simple nuclear explosion event parameters. f. ofR1Indicating the probability of theft of certain WG material; f. ofR2Parameter representing the effectiveness of the WG material for theft protection, fR3Representing an estimate of opponent's ability, fI4Indicating a WG material transport parameter, which may be, in particular, the probability that the WG material is successfully transported, fI5Protection effectiveness parameter of attacked target representing simple nuclear explosion event, fI6Showing the attack effectiveness of the simple nuclear explosion event.
FIG. 2 is a schematic flow chart of determining facility risk values for different facilities for occurrence of a target event according to some embodiments of the present application. As shown in fig. 2, in the method for evaluating a nuclear security risk according to the embodiment of the present application, the facility risk value includes a nuclear technology utilization unit risk value, a fixed nuclear facility risk value, a transportation private line risk value, and a border facility risk value. Therefore, determining the facility risk value of the target event of different facilities according to the risk value of the target event may include the following steps:
s201: and calculating a unit risk value of the nuclear technology utilization according to the risk value of the radioactive distribution event and a preset distribution risk weight value.
The unit of risk value for utilization of the core technology may include a unit of risk value for utilization of a single core technology. Also, the unit risk value utilized by the nuclear technology may include a risk value resulting from theft of a unit radioactive material utilized by the nuclear technology. The risk value for a radiological dispersal event may be a risk value for theft of a radioactive substance.
In some embodiments, any one of the nuclear techniques utilizes a unit risk value, which can be calculated by the following equation (4):
Figure BDA0002876163440000111
wherein R is1Represents a distribution risk value W generated after the radioactive material of any nuclear technology utilization unit is stolenRRepresenting a preset scatter risk weight value, RRuUsing the unit u-th radioactive substance for the nuclear technologyA risk value of theft.
S202: and calculating the risk value of the fixed nuclear facility according to the risk value of the attack event, the preset attack risk weight value, the risk value of the simple nuclear explosion event and the preset simple nuclear explosion event risk weight value.
The fixed nuclear facility risk value may be the sum of the risk values of an attacked event of the single nuclear facility and a simple nuclear explosion event of the single nuclear facility (stealing WG material causes the simple nuclear explosion event).
In some embodiments, any of the fixed nuclear facility risk values may be calculated by equation (5) as follows:
R2＝R21+R22 (5)
R21＝WA×max(RAv)
Figure BDA0002876163440000112
R2representing any one of the fixed nuclear facility risk values, R21Expressed as a risk value, R, of the nuclear facility being attacked22Expressed as the risk value, W, of the WG material of the nuclear facility causing a simple nuclear explosion eventARepresents a predetermined attack risk weight value, RAvA value representing the risk of the v-core facility of an attack event, WIFor presetting a risk weight value R of a simple nuclear explosion eventIwA risk value for the w-th class WG material of the nuclear facility to cause a simper nuclear explosion event.
When the stationary nuclear facility is free of WG material, R22May be 0.
S203: and determining the risk value of the special transport line attack event according to the risk value of the attack event, and calculating the special transport line risk value by utilizing the risk value of the special transport line attack event and a preset special transport line risk weight value.
The private transportation risk value may include a risk value for an attack event occurring on any private transportation line. The preset special transportation line risk weight value may be a preset attack risk weight value.
In some embodiments, the attack risk value of any one of the special lines can be calculated by the following formula (6):
R3＝WT×max(RTi) (6)
R3expressed as i special line of transportation risk value, WTRepresenting a preset risk weight value of a line of transportation attack, RTiRisk of a private line of transportation attack event for the i private line of transportation.
S204: and determining the risk value of the radioactive distribution event of the border facility according to the risk value of the radioactive distribution event, and determining the risk value of the simple nuclear explosion event of the border facility according to the risk value of the simple nuclear explosion event.
S205: and calculating the border facility risk value according to the risk value of the radioactive distribution event of the border facility, the preset distribution risk weight value, the risk value of the simple nuclear explosion event of the border facility and the preset simple nuclear explosion event risk weight value.
The risk value for a radioactive distribution event at a border facility may include the risk value for radioactive material passing through the port and/or border. In particular, a risk value for a radioactive distribution event of the border facility may be determined from the risk values for the radioactive distribution event.
The risk value for a improvised nuclear explosion event of a border facility may include the risk value for WG material passing through the port and/or border. Specifically, the risk value of the simple nuclear explosion event of the border facility can be determined from the risk values of the simple nuclear explosion event.
The border facility risk values may include a risk value for a radiological dispersal event of the border facility and a risk value for a simple nuclear explosion event of the border facility.
In some embodiments, any of the border facility risk values may be calculated by equation (7) as follows:
Figure BDA0002876163440000121
wherein R is4Represents any of the border facility risk values, WRRepresents a preset scatter risk weight value, WIIndicating presetsSimple nuclear explosion event risk weight value, RRhThe risk value of the h-th radioactive substance distribution event for passing through the port and/or border, RIgThe G-th class of WG material for passing through the port and/or border poses a risk value for an improvised nuclear explosion event, H represents the number of radioactive substances in the port and/or border, and G is the number of WG material in the port and/or border.
S206: and performing data fusion on the nuclear technology by using the unit risk value, the fixed nuclear facility risk value, the special transportation line risk value and the border facility risk value to obtain a facility risk value.
Fig. 3 is a flowchart illustrating a process of determining a region risk value of the target event occurring in different regions according to an embodiment of the present application. As shown in fig. 3, in the method for evaluating a nuclear security risk according to the embodiment of the present application, a region risk value includes an attacked risk value of a region and a stolen risk value of the region. Therefore, determining the region risk value of the target event in different regions according to the risk value of the target event may include the following steps:
s301: and calculating the attacked risk value of the area according to the risk value of the attacking event of the area, the fixed facility number of the area and a preset attack risk weight value.
In some embodiments, the attacked risk value of any one of the regions can be calculated by the following formula (8):
Figure BDA0002876163440000131
wherein R is5Representing the value of the risk of attack, W, in any one areaARepresents a predetermined attack risk weight value, RAvThe risk value of the attack event of v fixed facilities in the region is shown, and l represents the number of the fixed facilities in the region.
S302: and calculating the stolen risk value of the area according to the risk value of the radioactive distribution event of the area, the preset distribution risk weight value, the risk value of the simple nuclear explosion event of the area and the preset simple nuclear explosion event risk weight value.
In some embodiments, the theft risk value for any one region may be calculated by the following equation (9):
Figure BDA0002876163440000132
wherein R is6Indicating a theft risk value, W, for any one areaRRepresents a preset scatter risk weight value, WIRepresenting a preset risk weight value, R, of a simple nuclear explosion eventRvRisk value for a radioactive distribution event for a v facility, RIwRepresenting the risk value of w facility WG material causing a facile nuclear explosion event. The v facilities may represent nuclear technology utilization units, m represents the number of nuclear technology utilization units for the region, and n represents the number of nuclear facility units for the region.
S303: and carrying out data fusion on the attacked risk value and the stolen risk value of the region to obtain the region risk value.
Fig. 4 is a flowchart illustrating a process of determining a region risk value of the target event occurring in different regions according to some embodiments of the present application. As shown in fig. 4, in the method for evaluating a nuclear security risk according to the embodiment of the present application, the region risk value may further include an attacked risk value of a country, a stolen risk value of a country, a transportation private line risk value of a country, and an illegal sale risk value of a country. Therefore, determining the region risk value of the target event in different regions according to the risk value of the target event may include the following steps:
s401: and calculating the sum of the attacked risk values of the regions of the country to obtain the attacked risk value of the country.
S402: and calculating the sum of the theft risk values of the regions of the country to obtain the theft risk value of the country.
S403: and calculating the risk value of the special transportation line of the country according to the risk value of the special transportation line attack event of the country, the quantity of the special transportation line of the country and a preset attack risk weight value.
In some embodiments, the risk value of the private transportation route in any country can be calculated by the following formula (10):
Figure BDA0002876163440000141
wherein R is7Representing a risk value, W, of a line of transportation in any countryTRepresenting a preset risk weight value of a line of transportation attack, RTiK represents the number of nationwide private lines in the country for the risk of a private line of transport attack event for i private lines of transport.
S404: and calculating the illegal sale risk value of the country according to the risk value of the radioactive distribution event of the country, a preset distribution risk weight value, the border facility number of the country, the risk value of the simple nuclear explosion event and a preset simple nuclear explosion event risk weight value.
The risk value for illegal sale of a country may include a risk value for acquiring radioactive materials or WG materials through a single port or border.
In some embodiments, the risk value of illegal sale in any country can be calculated by the following formula (11):
Figure BDA0002876163440000142
wherein R is6A risk value, W, representing illegal sales in any countryRRepresents a preset scatter risk weight value, WIRepresenting a preset risk weight value, R, of a simple nuclear explosion eventRjRepresenting the risk value, R, of a radioactive distribution event occurring through a port or border of jIjRepresenting the risk value of causing a simmer nuclear explosion event through the j port or border WG material. The v facilities may represent nuclear technology utilization units, m represents the number of nuclear technology utilization units for the region, and n represents the number of nuclear facility units for the region.
S405: and carrying out data fusion on the attacked risk value of the country, the stolen risk value of the country, the special transportation line risk value of the country and the illegal sale risk value of the country to obtain a region risk value.
In summary, based on the method for evaluating the nuclear security risk in the embodiments of the present application, the current nuclear security risk status of a facility may be evaluated, and the effectiveness of a newly-taken safeguard measure and the risk of a specific nuclear security event may also be evaluated in advance.
Based on the method for evaluating the nuclear security risk provided by the embodiment, correspondingly, the application also provides a specific implementation mode of the device for evaluating the nuclear security risk. Please see the examples below.
Fig. 5 is a schematic structural diagram of an apparatus for nuclear security risk assessment according to another embodiment of the present application. As shown in fig. 5, in an embodiment of the present application, an apparatus for verifying security risk assessment may include:
an obtaining module 501, configured to obtain event element data in a security event library and target event information;
a determining module 502, configured to determine a risk value of the target event by using a preset risk algorithm according to the target event information and the event element data;
the determining module 502 is further configured to determine facility risk values of different facilities for the target event and region risk values of different regions for the target event according to the risk values of the target event;
the fusion module 503 is configured to perform data fusion on the risk value of the target event, the facility risk value, and the region risk value to obtain a result of the security risk assessment.
Each module/unit in the apparatus shown in fig. 5 has a function of implementing each step in fig. 1 to 4, and can achieve the corresponding technical effect, and for brevity, the description is not repeated herein.
To sum up, the apparatus for evaluating a nuclear security risk according to the embodiment of the present application may be used to execute the method for evaluating a nuclear security risk according to the above embodiments, where the method may combine event element data in a nuclear security event library and a target event, and determine a target event risk value by using a preset risk algorithm. And respectively determining a facility risk value, a region risk value and a country risk value based on the target event risk value. And finally, performing data fusion processing on each risk value to obtain a result of the nuclear security risk assessment. Based on different nuclear security event scenes, the risk assessment is realized by combining event element data in the nuclear security event library. Therefore, the assessment of the nuclear security risk is refined to the event level, the connotation of the nuclear security risk assessment can be more comprehensive, the risk assessment is automatically carried out on the related events by combining the preset algorithm, and the result effectiveness and accuracy of the nuclear security risk assessment can be improved.
Based on the method for evaluating the nuclear security risk provided by the embodiment, correspondingly, the application also provides a specific implementation mode of the equipment for evaluating the nuclear security risk. Please see the examples below.
Fig. 6 is a hardware structural diagram of a device for nuclear security risk assessment according to another embodiment of the present application.
The apparatus to verify a security risk assessment may include a processor 601 and a memory 602 storing computer program instructions.
Specifically, the processor 601 may include a Central Processing Unit (CPU), or an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), or may be configured to implement one or more Integrated circuits of the embodiments of the present Application.
Memory 602 may include mass storage for data or instructions. By way of example, and not limitation, memory 602 may include a Hard Disk Drive (HDD), floppy Disk Drive, flash memory, optical Disk, magneto-optical Disk, tape, or Universal Serial Bus (USB) Drive or a combination of two or more of these. Memory 602 may include removable or non-removable (or fixed) media, where appropriate. The memory 602 may be internal or external to the integrated gateway disaster recovery device, where appropriate. In a particular embodiment, the memory 602 is a non-volatile solid-state memory. In a particular embodiment, the memory 602 includes Read Only Memory (ROM). Where appropriate, the ROM may be mask-programmed ROM, Programmable ROM (PROM), Erasable PROM (EPROM), Electrically Erasable PROM (EEPROM), electrically rewritable ROM (EAROM), or flash memory or a combination of two or more of these.
The processor 601 may implement any one of the above-described embodiments of the method for security risk assessment by reading and executing computer program instructions stored in the memory 602.
In one example, the apparatus for nuclear security risk assessment may also include a communication interface 603 and a bus 610. As shown in fig. 6, the processor 601, the memory 602, and the communication interface 603 are connected via a bus 610 to complete communication therebetween.
The communication interface 603 is mainly used for implementing communication between modules, apparatuses, units and/or devices in the embodiments of the present application.
Bus 610 includes hardware, software, or both to couple the components of the device that core the security risk assessment to each other. By way of example, and not limitation, a bus may include an Accelerated Graphics Port (AGP) or other graphics bus, an Enhanced Industry Standard Architecture (EISA) bus, a Front Side Bus (FSB), a Hypertransport (HT) interconnect, an Industry Standard Architecture (ISA) bus, an infiniband interconnect, a Low Pin Count (LPC) bus, a memory bus, a Micro Channel Architecture (MCA) bus, a Peripheral Component Interconnect (PCI) bus, a PCI-Express (PCI-X) bus, a Serial Advanced Technology Attachment (SATA) bus, a video electronics standards association local (VLB) bus, or other suitable bus or a combination of two or more of these. Bus 610 may include one or more buses, where appropriate. Although specific buses are described and shown in the embodiments of the application, any suitable buses or interconnects are contemplated by the application.
The apparatus for nuclear security risk assessment may execute the method for nuclear security risk assessment in the embodiment of the present application, so as to implement the method for nuclear security risk assessment described in conjunction with fig. 1 to 4.
In addition, in combination with the method for evaluating the risk of the nuclear security protection in the foregoing embodiments, the embodiments of the present application may provide a computer storage medium to implement. The computer storage medium having computer program instructions stored thereon; the computer program instructions, when executed by a processor, implement any one of the above-described embodiments of the method for nuclear security risk assessment.
It is to be understood that the present application is not limited to the particular arrangements and instrumentality described above and shown in the attached drawings. A detailed description of known methods is omitted herein for the sake of brevity. In the above embodiments, several specific steps are described and shown as examples. However, the method processes of the present application are not limited to the specific steps described and illustrated, and those skilled in the art can make various changes, modifications, and additions or change the order between the steps after comprehending the spirit of the present application.
The functional blocks shown in the above-described structural block diagrams may be implemented as hardware, software, firmware, or a combination thereof. When implemented in hardware, it may be, for example, an electronic circuit, an Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC), suitable firmware, plug-in, function card, or the like. When implemented in software, the elements of the present application are the programs or code segments used to perform the required tasks. The program or code segments may be stored in a machine-readable medium or transmitted by a data signal carried in a carrier wave over a transmission medium or a communication link. A "machine-readable medium" may include any medium that can store or transfer information. Examples of a machine-readable medium include electronic circuits, semiconductor memory devices, ROM, flash memory, Erasable ROM (EROM), floppy disks, CD-ROMs, optical disks, hard disks, fiber optic media, Radio Frequency (RF) links, and so forth. The code segments may be downloaded via computer networks such as the internet, intranet, etc.
It should also be noted that the exemplary embodiments mentioned in this application describe some methods or systems based on a series of steps or devices. However, the present application is not limited to the order of the above-described steps, that is, the steps may be performed in the order mentioned in the embodiments, may be performed in an order different from the order in the embodiments, or may be performed simultaneously.
Aspects of the present disclosure are described above with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems) and computer program products according to embodiments of the disclosure. It will be understood that each block of the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, enable the implementation of the functions/acts specified in the flowchart and/or block diagram block or blocks. Such a processor may be, but is not limited to, a general purpose processor, a special purpose processor, an application specific processor, or a field programmable logic circuit. It will also be understood that each block of the block diagrams and/or flowchart illustration, and combinations of blocks in the block diagrams and/or flowchart illustration, can be implemented by special purpose hardware for performing the specified functions or acts, or combinations of special purpose hardware and computer instructions.
As described above, only the specific embodiments of the present application are provided, and it can be clearly understood by those skilled in the art that, for convenience and brevity of description, the specific working processes of the system, the module and the unit described above may refer to the corresponding processes in the foregoing method embodiments, and are not described herein again. It should be understood that the scope of the present application is not limited thereto, and any person skilled in the art can easily conceive various equivalent modifications or substitutions within the technical scope of the present application, and these modifications or substitutions should be covered within the scope of the present application.

Claims (10)

1. A method for nuclear security risk assessment, comprising:
acquiring event element data and target event information in a nuclear security event library;
determining a risk value of the target event by using a preset risk algorithm according to the target event information and the event element data;
respectively determining facility risk values of different facilities for the target event and region risk values of different regions for the target event according to the risk values of the target event;
and performing data fusion on the risk value of the target event, the facility risk value and the region risk value to obtain the result of the nuclear security risk assessment.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the target events include a radiological dispersal event, an attack event, and a simmer blast event.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein determining a target event risk value using a pre-set risk algorithm based on the target event information and event element data comprises:
determining a first probability, a first danger coefficient and a first event parameter of a target event according to the target event information and event factor data;
and calculating the target event risk value according to the first probability, the first risk coefficient and the first event parameter.
4. The method of claim 3,
when the target event is a radioactive distribution event, the first event parameters include: one or more of a radioactive source stolen parameter, a radioactive source transport parameter, a protection effectiveness parameter and an attack effectiveness parameter;
when the target event is an attack event, the first event parameter includes: one or more of a protection validity parameter and an attack validity parameter;
when the target event is a simple nuclear explosion event, the first event parameter comprises: the method comprises the following steps of obtaining one or more of simple nuclear explosion material stolen parameters, simple nuclear explosion material transportation parameters, protection effectiveness parameters and attack effectiveness parameters.
5. The method of any one of claims 2 to 4, wherein the facility risk values include nuclear technology utilization unit risk values, fixed nuclear facility risk values, transit line risk values, and border facility risk values;
determining the facility risk value of the target event of different facilities according to the risk value of the target event comprises the following steps:
calculating a unit risk value of nuclear technology utilization according to the risk value of the radioactive distribution event and a preset distribution risk weight value;
calculating a fixed nuclear facility risk value according to the risk value of the attack event, a preset attack risk weight value, the risk value of the simple nuclear explosion event and a preset simple nuclear explosion event risk weight value;
determining a risk value of the special transport line attack event according to the risk value of the attack event, and calculating the special transport line risk value by using the risk value of the special transport line attack event and a preset special transport line risk weight value;
determining the risk value of the radioactive distribution event of the border facility according to the risk value of the radioactive distribution event, and determining the risk value of the simple nuclear explosion event of the border facility according to the risk value of the simple nuclear explosion event;
calculating a border facility risk value according to the risk value and a preset distribution risk weight value of the radioactive distribution event of the border facility, and the risk value and a preset simple nuclear explosion event risk weight value of the simple nuclear explosion event of the border facility;
and performing data fusion on the nuclear technology by using a unit risk value, a fixed nuclear facility risk value, a special transportation line risk value and a border facility risk value to obtain the facility risk value.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the geographic risk values include an attack risk value for a geographic area and a theft risk value for a geographic area;
the determining the region risk values of the target event in different regions according to the risk values of the target event includes:
calculating an attacked risk value of the region according to the risk value of the attacking event of the region, the number of the fixed facilities of the region and the preset attack risk weight value;
calculating a stolen risk value of the area according to the risk value and a preset distribution risk weight value of the radioactive distribution event of the area, the risk value and a preset simple nuclear explosion event risk weight value of the simple nuclear explosion event of the area;
and carrying out data fusion on the attacked risk value and the stolen risk value of the region to obtain the region risk value.
7. The method according to claim 6, wherein the regional risk values further comprise an attacked risk value of a country, a stolen risk value of a country, a transit line risk value of a country, and an illegal sale risk value of a country;
the determining the region risk value of the target event in different regions according to the risk value of the target event further comprises:
calculating the sum of the attacked risk values of the regions of the country to obtain the attacked risk value of the country;
calculating the sum of the theft risk values of the regions of the country to obtain the theft risk value of the country;
calculating the risk value of the special transportation line of the country according to the risk value of the special transportation line attack event of the country, the quantity of the special transportation line of the country and the preset attack risk weight value;
calculating an illegal sale risk value of the country according to the risk value of the radioactive distribution event of the country and the preset distribution risk weight value, the border facility number of the country, the risk value of the simple nuclear explosion event and the preset simple nuclear explosion event risk weight value;
and carrying out data fusion on the attacked risk value of the country, the stolen risk value of the country, the special transportation line risk value of the country and the illegal sale risk value of the country to obtain the region risk value.
8. An apparatus for nuclear security risk assessment, the apparatus comprising:
the acquisition module is used for acquiring event element data in the security event library and target event information;
the determining module is used for determining a risk value of the target event by using a preset risk algorithm according to the target event information and the event element data;
the determining module is further configured to determine facility risk values of different facilities where the target event occurs and region risk values of different regions where the target event occurs, respectively, according to the risk values of the target event;
and the fusion module is used for carrying out data fusion on the risk value of the target event, the facility risk value and the region risk value to obtain the result of the nuclear security risk assessment.
9. An apparatus for nuclear security risk assessment, the apparatus comprising: a processor and a memory storing computer program instructions;
the processor, when executing the computer program instructions, implements a method of nuclear security risk assessment as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 7.
10. A computer storage medium having computer program instructions stored thereon, which when executed by a processor, implement the method of nuclear security risk assessment of any one of claims 1 to 7.
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