CN112540235B - Method and system for correcting lightning early warning threshold value and early warning evaluation method and system - Google Patents
Method and system for correcting lightning early warning threshold value and early warning evaluation method and system Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to the technical field of lightning early warning, and discloses a method and a system for correcting a lightning early warning threshold value, and a method and a system for evaluating the lightning early warning. The correction method comprises the following steps: determining a characterization parameter for evaluating a lightning early warning result based on a lightning forecast record of a preset range in a preset time period, a preset early warning threshold value and the lightning record of the preset range in the preset time period; and adjusting the preset early warning threshold value to re-determine the characterization parameter until the characterization parameter is greater than or equal to a preset value, and correcting the preset early warning threshold value to be the preset early warning threshold value obtained by the last adjustment. The invention can correct the preset lightning early warning threshold value, and determines the characterization parameters for accurately evaluating the lightning early warning result by adopting the corrected preset early warning threshold value, thereby improving the effective early warning rate of lightning early warning and having strong universality.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of lightning early warning, in particular to a method and a system for correcting a lightning early warning threshold value, and a method and a system for evaluating the lightning early warning.
Background
Because petrochemical enterprises have the characteristics of large scale, high automation degree and long operation period, the petrochemical enterprises are greatly threatened by lightning disasters. Up to now, in order to meet the demand of small-area and fine lightning monitoring and early warning in the petrochemical industry, more than 220 sets of novel honeycomb layout lightning early warning systems are installed nationwide, and the systems form a lightning early warning network in key areas. For the early warning system, the accuracy and reliability of the system are extremely important, so that the inspection and the evaluation of the forecasting effect of the early warning system are necessary links and processes. According to the evaluation result, parameter optimization can be carried out, and the quality and reliability of the early warning system are further improved. The prior art discloses a lightning early warning data evaluation method based on historical lightning positioning data and power grid tripping data, but the evaluation method is mainly suitable for a power grid system and is not strong in universality.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a lightning early warning threshold correction method, a lightning early warning threshold correction system, a lightning early warning evaluation method and a lightning early warning evaluation system, which can correct a lightning preset early warning threshold and determine a characterization parameter for accurately evaluating a lightning early warning result by adopting the corrected preset early warning threshold, so that the effective early warning rate of lightning early warning is improved, and the lightning early warning evaluation method is strong in universality.
In order to achieve the above object, an aspect of the present invention provides a method for correcting a lightning early warning threshold, where the method includes: determining a characterization parameter for evaluating a lightning early warning result based on a lightning forecast record of a preset range in a preset time period, a preset early warning threshold value and the lightning record of the preset range in the preset time period; and adjusting the preset early warning threshold value to re-determine the characterization parameter until the characterization parameter is greater than or equal to a preset value, and correcting the preset early warning threshold value to be the preset early warning threshold value obtained by the last adjustment.
Preferably, the characterization parameters include: the early warning system comprises an effective early warning rate, an error early warning rate and/or a failure early warning rate, wherein the effective early warning rate is the ratio of the number of effective early warning records to the sum of the number of the effective early warning records and the number of failure early warning records; the error early warning rate is the ratio of the number of the error early warning records to the sum of the number of the error early warning records and the number of the effective early warning records; and the failure early warning rate is the ratio of the number of the failure early warning records to the sum of the number of the failure early warning records and the number of the effective early warning records, wherein under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning prediction value in the lightning prediction record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that early warning occurs, if lightning occurs in the preset range in a first specific time period, the lightning prediction record corresponding to the first specific time period is the effective early warning record; under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in the lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that early warning is given out, if no lightning occurs in the preset range in a second specific time period, the lightning forecast record corresponding to the second specific time period is the error early warning record; and under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in the lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that no early warning is sent out, if lightning occurs in the preset range in a third specific time period, the lightning forecast record corresponding to the third specific time period is the failure early warning record.
Preferably, the determining the characterization parameters for evaluating the early warning result comprises: determining the number of error early warning records, the number of effective early warning records and the number of failure early warning records based on the lightning forecast records, the preset early warning threshold and the lightning records; determining an effective early warning rate and/or a failure early warning rate based on the number of the effective early warning records and the number of the failure early warning records; and/or determining the error early warning rate based on the number of the error early warning records and the number of the effective early warning records.
Preferably, the determining the number of the error warning records, the number of the valid warning records and the number of the failure warning records includes: judging whether lightning occurs in a time period corresponding to each record in the lightning forecast records based on the lightning records; under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in a specific lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that early warning occurs and the lightning record shows that lightning occurs in the time period corresponding to the specific lightning forecast record, determining the specific lightning forecast record as the effective early warning record, and counting the number of the effective early warning records and the lightning distribution condition in the time period corresponding to the effective early warning record; under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in a specific lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that early warning occurs and the lightning record shows that no lightning occurs in the time period corresponding to the specific lightning forecast record, determining the specific lightning forecast record as the error early warning record, and counting the number of the error early warning records; determining a lightning distribution condition corresponding to failed early warning based on a lightning distribution condition in a time period corresponding to the effective early warning record and a total lightning distribution condition in the lightning record; and determining the number of failure early warning records based on the lightning distribution condition corresponding to the failure early warning and the time interval threshold value of adjacent lightning occurrence.
According to the technical scheme, the characterization parameters for evaluating the lightning early warning result are creatively determined according to the lightning forecast record, the preset early warning threshold value and the lightning record, then the preset early warning threshold value is adjusted according to the preset value of the characterization parameters until the characterization parameters determined by the modified preset early warning threshold value are the preset value, and finally the preset early warning threshold value is corrected to be the preset early warning threshold value obtained by the last adjustment; in addition, the characterization parameters used for evaluating the lightning early warning result can be accurately determined through the corrected preset early warning threshold, so that the effective early warning rate of the lightning early warning is improved, and the universality is high.
Correspondingly, the invention also provides a system for correcting the lightning early warning threshold value, which comprises: the lightning early warning system comprises a first determining device and a second determining device, wherein the first determining device is used for determining a characterization parameter for evaluating a lightning early warning result based on a lightning forecast record in a preset range in a preset time period, a preset early warning threshold value and the lightning record in the preset range in the preset time period; and the correcting device is used for adjusting the preset early warning threshold value to re-determine the characterization parameter until the characterization parameter is greater than or equal to the preset value, and correcting the preset early warning threshold value into the preset early warning threshold value obtained by the last adjustment.
For specific details and benefits of the system for correcting the lightning early warning threshold provided by the present invention, reference may be made to the above description of the method for correcting the lightning early warning threshold, which is not described herein again.
Correspondingly, the invention also provides a lightning early warning evaluation method, which comprises the following steps: acquiring lightning forecast records of a preset range in a preset time period and lightning records of the preset range in the preset time period; and determining a characterization parameter for evaluating a lightning early warning result based on the corrected preset early warning threshold value obtained by the lightning early warning threshold value correcting method, the lightning forecast record in the preset range in the preset time period and the lightning record in the preset range in the preset time period.
Through the technical scheme, the characterization parameters for evaluating the lightning early warning result can be accurately determined creatively through the corrected preset early warning threshold, the lightning forecast record and the lightning record, so that the effective early warning rate of lightning early warning is improved, and the universality is high.
Accordingly, in another aspect, the present invention further provides a lightning early warning and evaluating system, which includes: the device comprises an acquisition device, a storage device and a processing device, wherein the acquisition device is used for acquiring lightning forecast records in a preset range in a preset time period and lightning records in the preset range in the preset time period; and a second determining device, configured to determine a characterization parameter for evaluating a lightning early warning result based on the corrected preset early warning threshold value obtained by the lightning early warning threshold value correcting system, the lightning forecast record within the preset range within the preset time period, and the lightning record within the preset range within the preset time period.
For specific details and benefits of the lightning early warning evaluation system provided by the present invention, reference may be made to the above description of the lightning early warning evaluation method, which is not described herein again.
Accordingly, in still another aspect, the present invention further provides a machine-readable storage medium, where instructions are stored, and the instructions are configured to enable a machine to execute the method for correcting the lightning early warning threshold or the method for evaluating the lightning early warning.
Additional features and advantages of the invention will be set forth in the detailed description which follows.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the invention and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this specification, illustrate embodiments of the invention and together with the description serve to explain the principles of the invention and not to limit the invention. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a flowchart of a method for correcting a lightning early warning threshold according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a flowchart of determining characterization parameters for evaluating early warning results according to a second embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 3 is a flowchart for determining the number of error warning records, the number of valid warning records, and the number of failure warning records according to the second embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a flowchart of a method for correcting a lightning early warning threshold according to a third embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a block diagram of a system for correcting a lightning early warning threshold according to a fourth embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 6 is a flow chart of a lightning early warning evaluation method according to a fifth embodiment of the present invention; and
fig. 7 is a structural diagram of a lightning early warning evaluation system according to a sixth embodiment of the present invention.
Description of the reference numerals
10. First determining means 20 correcting means
30. Acquisition means 40 second determination means
100. Correction system
Detailed Description
The following describes in detail embodiments of the present invention with reference to the drawings. It should be understood that the detailed description and specific examples, while indicating the preferred embodiment of the invention, are given by way of illustration and explanation only, not limitation.
Example one
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for correcting a lightning warning threshold according to an embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 1, the method for correcting the lightning warning threshold may include the following steps: step S101, determining a characteristic parameter for evaluating a lightning early warning result based on a lightning forecast record of a preset range in a preset time period, a preset early warning threshold value and the lightning record of the preset range in the preset time period; and step S102, adjusting the preset early warning threshold value to re-determine the characterization parameter until the characterization parameter is greater than or equal to the preset value, and correcting the preset early warning threshold value to the preset early warning threshold value obtained by the last adjustment.
The characterization parameters may include: an effective early warning rate, a false early warning rate, and/or a failure early warning rate. Wherein, the effective early warning rate (POD) is the ratio of the number (EA) of the effective early warning records to the sum of the number (EA) of the effective early warning records and the number (FTW) of the failure early warning records, that is
The False Alarm Rate (FAR) is the ratio of the number of false alarm records (FA) to the sum of the number of false alarm records (FA) and the number of effective alarm records (EA), that is
And the failure early warning rate (FTWR) is the ratio of the number of the failure early warning records (FTW) to the sum of the number of the failure early warning records (FTW) and the number of the effective early warning records (EA), namely
Next, the three concepts of the above-mentioned effective warning record, the error warning record and the failure warning record are introduced. And under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in the lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that early warning occurs, if lightning occurs in the preset range in a first specific time period, the lightning forecast record corresponding to the first specific time period is the effective early warning record. And under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in the lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that early warning is given out, if no lightning occurs in the preset range in a second specific time period, the lightning forecast record corresponding to the second specific time period is the error early warning record. And under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in the lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that no early warning is sent out, if lightning occurs in the preset range in a third specific time period, the lightning forecast record corresponding to the third specific time period is the failure early warning record.
The lightning forecast value can be an electric field forecast value, an electric field change forecast value and a lightning occurrence time forecast value.
The preset range can be a range in which the lightning early warning system can effectively and accurately detect to perform early warning, so that the preset range can be determined by the effective early warning range of the early warning station. By taking the novel cellular layout lightning early warning system as an example, the preset range of the novel cellular layout lightning early warning system can be defined as a circular area with the radius of 10km and the center of the early warning site according to the detection condition.
The lightning forecast record can be obtained by extracting historical forecast data of the lightning early warning system. The lightning records can be obtained by extracting lightning positioning data provided by a meteorological department.
Example two
For step S101, as shown in fig. 2, the determining the characterization parameters for evaluating the early warning result may include the following steps.
Step S201, determining the number of error early warning records, the number of effective early warning records and the number of failure early warning records based on the lightning forecast records, the preset early warning threshold and the lightning records.
For step S201, as shown in fig. 3, the determining the number of error warning records, the number of valid warning records, and the number of failure warning records may include the following steps.
Step S301, based on the lightning records, judging whether lightning occurs in a time period corresponding to each record in the lightning forecast records.
Step S302, under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in a specific lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that early warning occurs and the lightning record shows that lightning occurs in the time period corresponding to the specific lightning forecast record, determining the specific lightning forecast record as the effective early warning record, and counting the number of the effective early warning records and the lightning distribution condition in the time period corresponding to the effective early warning record.
For the novel cellular layout lightning early warning system, the preset early warning threshold value can be a preset electric field early warning threshold value (K value) and a preset total number threshold value (P value) of sampling points of which the electric field early warning threshold value (K value) is greater than or equal to, and if the electric field early warning value in the lightning forecast record A is greater than the K value and the total number of the sampling points of which the electric field early warning value is greater than the K value is greater than or equal to the P value, early warning is indicated. And under the condition of early warning, if the lightning record indicates that lightning occurs in a time period corresponding to the lightning forecast record A, determining the lightning forecast record A as an effective early warning record, and counting the effective early warning record (namely performing an operation of adding 1 to EA).
The lightning distribution condition refers to the distribution condition of lightning values along with time; or the distribution of the lightning occurrence results (for example, the occurrence of lightning is represented by 1 and the non-occurrence of lightning is represented by 0) over time.
Step S303, under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in a specific lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that early warning occurs and the lightning record shows that no lightning occurs in the time period corresponding to the specific lightning forecast record, determining the specific lightning forecast record as the error early warning record, and counting the number of the error early warning records.
For the novel cellular layout lightning early warning system, if the preset early warning threshold values are K values and P values), if the electric field forecast value in the lightning forecast record B is greater than the K value and the total number of sampling points greater than the K value is greater than or equal to the P value, the occurrence of early warning is indicated. And under the condition of early warning, if the lightning record indicates that no lightning occurs in the time period corresponding to the lightning forecast record B, determining the lightning forecast record B as an error early warning record, and counting the error early warning record (namely adding 1 to FA).
Step S304, determining the lightning distribution condition corresponding to the failure early warning based on the lightning distribution condition in the time period corresponding to the effective early warning record and the total lightning distribution condition in the lightning record.
The lightning distribution conditions corresponding to the effective early warning and the failure early warning form the total lightning distribution conditions in the lightning record, so the lightning distribution conditions corresponding to the failure early warning can be obtained by separating the lightning distribution conditions corresponding to the effective early warning from the total lightning distribution conditions.
Step S305, determining the number of the failure early warning records based on the lightning distribution condition corresponding to the failure early warning and the time interval threshold value of the adjacent lightning.
And if the time difference of the occurrence of certain adjacent two lightning (such as the first lightning and the second lightning) is less than a time interval threshold value (for example, 5 minutes), the two lightning is considered to occur in the same failure early warning record, otherwise, the two lightning is considered to occur in two failure early warning records. Based on the rule, the number FTW of the failure early warning records can be determined by combining the time interval threshold according to the lightning distribution condition corresponding to the failure early warning.
And S202, determining an effective early warning rate and/or a failure early warning rate based on the number of the effective early warning records and the number of the failure early warning records.
Effective early warning rate
Failure early warning rate
Wherein, EA is the number of effective early warning records; and FTW is the number of failure warning records.
Step S203, determining the error early warning rate based on the number of the error early warning records and the number of the effective early warning records.
The error early warning rate
Wherein EA is the number of effective early warning records; and FA is the number of error warning records.
Of course, for step S101, the determining the characterization parameters for evaluating the early warning result may also include only step S201 and step S202, or may include only step S201 and step S203.
For step S102, it is determined whether the characterization parameter for evaluating the lightning early warning result determined in step S101 is greater than or equal to a preset value (the preset value may be set according to the lightning protection level, for example, 65%, 70%, 80%, or 90%), and if the preset value is smaller than the preset value, the preset early warning threshold is adjusted and step S101 is executed again to determine the characterization parameter until the characterization parameter meets the preset value. And correcting the preset early warning threshold value into the preset early warning threshold value obtained by the last adjustment.
EXAMPLE III
In the third embodiment, the lightning early warning system with a novel honeycomb layout (referred to as a novel lightning early warning system for short) is taken as an example to explain and explain the correcting process of the lightning early warning threshold in detail, as shown in fig. 4. The preset early warning threshold value adopted by the novel lightning early warning system is a preset total threshold value (P value) of the preset electric field early warning threshold value (K value) and the electric field early warning value is greater than the preset total threshold value of the sampling points of the preset electric field early warning threshold value (K value).
The correction process of the K value and the P value comprises the following steps.
In step S401, a K value and a P value are set.
Step S402, determining the preset range of the novel lightning early warning system, and executing step S403 and step S404.
And S403, acquiring the lightning forecast record within the preset time period and counting the total early warning number Pall of lightning by combining the set K value and the set P value.
And S404, acquiring lightning records of the preset range in a preset time period, and counting the total lightning number Fall.
Step S405, judging whether lightning occurs in a time period lasting by each lightning forecast record; if yes, go to step S406, step S407, and step S408; otherwise, step S409 is performed.
Step S406, counting the number EA of the effective early warning records.
Step S407, determining the distribution of lightning and the number of lightning FEA occurring in the time period corresponding to the valid early warning record, and executing step S410.
Step S408, a time difference LT between the effective early warning recording start time and the first lightning occurrence time is determined.
Step S409, counting the number FA of the error early warning records, and executing step S413.
Step S410, determining the lightning distribution condition corresponding to the failure early warning based on the lightning record and the lightning distribution condition in the time period corresponding to the effective early warning record; and determining the number FFTW of failed early warning lightning based on the total number Fall of lightning and the number FEA of lightning occurring in the effective early warning record.
Step S411, based on the number FEA of lightning occurred in the effective early warning record and the number FFTW of failure early warning lightning, determining the proportion PFR of early warning lightning.
Step S412, determining the number FTW of failure early warning records based on the lightning distribution condition corresponding to the failure early warning and the time interval threshold value of adjacent lightning occurrence, and executing step S414.
Step S413, determining a false alarm rate FAR based on the number of false alarm records FA and the number of valid alarm records EA.
And step S414, determining an effective early warning rate POD or a failure early warning rate FTWR based on the number EA of the effective early warning records and the number FFTW of the failure early warning lightning.
Step S415 determines whether the false alarm rate FAR is greater than or equal to a preset false alarm rate and the valid alarm rate POD (or the failure alarm rate FTWR) is greater than or equal to a preset valid alarm rate (or a preset failure alarm rate), if so, step S401 is executed, otherwise, step S416 is executed.
And S416, correcting the K value and the P value of the novel lightning early warning system into the K value and the P value set at this time.
Adjusting and correcting a preset early warning threshold value of the novel lightning early warning system according to the obtained error early warning rate and effective early warning rate (or failure early warning rate), and performing simulation calculation on the adjusted preset early warning threshold value again to obtain a new early warning result; and evaluating the new early warning result again until the best preset early warning threshold value is obtained, so that the effective early warning rate of the novel lightning early warning system is highest or the failure early warning rate is lowest.
Of course, the invention is not limited to correcting the preset early warning threshold value of the novel lightning early warning system, and is also suitable for other lightning early warning systems with early warning threshold values.
In summary, the present invention creatively determines the characteristic parameters for evaluating the lightning early warning result according to the lightning forecast record, the preset early warning threshold value and the lightning record, then adjusts the preset early warning threshold value according to the preset values of the characteristic parameters until the characteristic parameters determined by the modified preset early warning threshold value are the preset value, and finally corrects the preset early warning threshold value to the preset early warning threshold value obtained by the last adjustment; in addition, the characterization parameters for evaluating the lightning early warning result can be accurately determined through the corrected preset early warning threshold, so that the effective early warning rate of lightning early warning is improved, and the universality is high.
Example four
Fig. 5 is a structural diagram of a system for correcting a lightning warning threshold according to a fourth embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 5, the correction system 100 may include: the first determining device 10 determines a characterization parameter for evaluating a lightning early warning result based on a lightning forecast record of a preset range within a preset time period, a preset early warning threshold value and the lightning record of the preset range within the preset time period; and a correcting device 20, configured to adjust the preset early warning threshold to re-determine the characterization parameter until the characterization parameter is greater than or equal to the preset value, and correct the preset early warning threshold to the preset early warning threshold obtained by the last adjustment.
Preferably, the characterization parameters may include: the early warning system comprises an effective early warning rate, an error early warning rate and/or a failure early warning rate, wherein the effective early warning rate is the ratio of the number of effective early warning records to the sum of the number of the effective early warning records and the number of failure early warning records; the error early warning rate is the ratio of the number of the error early warning records to the sum of the number of the error early warning records and the number of the effective early warning records; and the failure early warning rate is the ratio of the number of the failure early warning records to the sum of the number of the failure early warning records and the number of the effective early warning records, wherein under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in the lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that early warning occurs, if lightning occurs in the preset range in a first specific time period, the lightning forecast record corresponding to the first specific time period is the effective early warning record; under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in the lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that early warning is given out, if no lightning occurs in the preset range in a second specific time period, the lightning forecast record corresponding to the second specific time period is the error early warning record; and under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in the lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that no early warning is sent out, if lightning occurs in the preset range in a third specific time period, the lightning forecast record corresponding to the third specific time period is the failure early warning record.
Preferably, the first determining means may include: the first determination module is used for determining the number of error early warning records, the number of effective early warning records and the number of failure early warning records based on the lightning forecast records, the preset early warning threshold and the lightning records; the second determining module is used for determining the effective early warning rate and/or the failure early warning rate based on the number of the effective early warning records and the number of the failure early warning records; and/or a third determination module for determining the error early warning rate based on the number of the error early warning records and the number of the effective early warning records.
Preferably, the first determining module comprises: a judging unit configured to judge, based on the lightning records, whether lightning occurs within a time period corresponding to each of the lightning forecast records; the first determining unit is used for determining that a specific lightning forecast record is the effective early warning record under the condition that a comparison result of a lightning forecast value in the specific lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that early warning occurs and the lightning record shows that lightning occurs in a time period corresponding to the specific lightning forecast record, and counting the number of the effective early warning records and the lightning distribution condition in the time period corresponding to the effective early warning record; the second determination unit is used for determining that the specific lightning forecast record is the error early warning record and counting the number of the error early warning records under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in the specific lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that early warning occurs and the lightning record shows that no lightning occurs in the time period corresponding to the specific lightning forecast record; a third determining unit, which determines the lightning distribution condition corresponding to the failure early warning based on the lightning distribution condition in the time period corresponding to the effective early warning record and the total lightning distribution condition in the lightning record; and the fourth determining unit is used for determining the number of the failure early warning records based on the lightning distribution condition corresponding to the failure early warning and the time interval threshold value of the occurrence of adjacent lightning.
For specific details and benefits of the system for correcting the lightning early warning threshold value provided by the fourth embodiment of the present invention, reference may be made to the description of the method for correcting the lightning early warning threshold value, and details are not described herein.
EXAMPLE five
Fig. 6 is a flowchart of a lightning early warning evaluation method according to a fifth embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 6, the lightning early warning evaluation method may include the steps of: step S601, acquiring lightning forecast records of a preset range in a preset time period and lightning records of the preset range in the preset time period; and step S602, determining a characteristic parameter for evaluating a lightning early warning result based on the corrected preset early warning threshold value obtained by the lightning early warning threshold value correcting method, the lightning forecast record in the preset range in the preset time period and the lightning record in the preset range in the preset time period.
EXAMPLE six
Fig. 7 is a structural diagram of a lightning early warning evaluation system according to a sixth embodiment of the present invention. As shown in fig. 7, the evaluation system may include: an acquiring device 30, configured to acquire a lightning forecast record of a preset range within a preset time period and a lightning record of the preset range within the preset time period; and a second determining device 40, configured to determine a characterization parameter for evaluating a lightning early warning result based on the corrected preset early warning threshold value obtained by the lightning early warning threshold value correcting system 100, the lightning forecast record in the preset range within the preset time period, and the lightning record in the preset range within the preset time period.
For specific details and benefits of the corrected preset early warning threshold obtained in the lightning early warning evaluation method or system provided by the sixth embodiment of the present invention, reference may be made to the above description of the method for correcting the lightning early warning threshold, which is not described herein again.
In summary, the characterization parameters for evaluating the lightning early warning result can be accurately determined through the corrected preset early warning threshold, the lightning forecast record and the lightning record, so that the effective early warning rate of the lightning early warning is improved, and the universality is high.
Accordingly, the present invention also provides a machine-readable storage medium, on which instructions are stored, and the instructions can be used to enable a machine to execute the lightning early warning threshold value correction method or the lightning early warning evaluation method.
The machine-readable storage medium includes, but is not limited to, phase Change Random Access Memory (PRAM, also known as RCM/PCRAM), static Random Access Memory (SRAM), dynamic Random Access Memory (DRAM), other types of Random Access Memory (RAM), read Only Memory (ROM), electrically Erasable Programmable Read Only Memory (EEPROM), flash Memory (Flash Memory) or other Memory technologies, compact disc read only Memory (CD-ROM), digital Versatile Discs (DVD) or other optical storage, magnetic cassettes, magnetic tape, magnetic disk storage or other magnetic storage devices, and various media capable of storing program code.
The preferred embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, however, the present invention is not limited to the specific details of the above embodiments, and various simple modifications can be made to the technical solution of the present invention within the technical idea of the present invention, and these simple modifications are within the protective scope of the present invention.
It should be noted that the various features described in the above embodiments may be combined in any suitable manner without departing from the scope of the invention. The invention is not described in detail in order to avoid unnecessary repetition.
In addition, any combination of the various embodiments of the present invention is also possible, and the same should be considered as the disclosure of the present invention as long as it does not depart from the spirit of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. A method for correcting a lightning early warning threshold value is characterized by comprising the following steps:
determining a characterization parameter for evaluating a lightning early warning result based on a lightning forecast record of a preset range in a preset time period, a preset early warning threshold value and the lightning record of the preset range in the preset time period; and
adjusting the preset early warning threshold value to re-determine the characterization parameter until the characterization parameter is greater than or equal to a preset value, correcting the preset early warning threshold value to a preset early warning threshold value obtained by the last adjustment,
wherein the characterization parameters include: the effective early-warning rate is increased,
wherein, the determining the characterization parameters for evaluating the early warning result comprises:
determining the number of effective early warning records and the number of failure early warning records based on the lightning forecast records, preset early warning threshold values and the lightning records; and
determining an effective early warning rate based on the number of the effective early warning records and the number of the failure early warning records,
wherein, the determining the number of the effective early warning records and the number of the failure early warning records comprises:
judging whether lightning occurs in a time period corresponding to each record in the lightning forecast records based on the lightning records;
under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in a specific lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that early warning occurs and the lightning record shows that lightning occurs in the time period corresponding to the specific lightning forecast record, determining the specific lightning forecast record as the effective early warning record, and counting the number of the effective early warning records and the lightning distribution condition in the time period corresponding to the effective early warning record;
determining a lightning distribution condition corresponding to failure early warning based on a lightning distribution condition in a time period corresponding to the effective early warning record and a total lightning distribution condition in the lightning record; and
and determining the number of failure early warning records based on the lightning distribution condition corresponding to the failure early warning and the time interval threshold value of the occurrence of adjacent lightning.
2. The method for correcting the lightning early warning threshold value according to claim 1, wherein the effective early warning rate is a ratio of the number of effective early warning records to the sum of the number of effective early warning records and the number of failure early warning records;
under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in the lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that early warning occurs, if lightning occurs in the preset range in a first specific time period, the lightning forecast record corresponding to the first specific time period is the effective early warning record; and
and under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in the lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that no early warning is sent out, if lightning occurs in the preset range in a third specific time period, the lightning forecast record corresponding to the third specific time period is the failure early warning record.
3. A lightning early warning threshold value correction system is characterized by comprising:
the lightning early warning system comprises a first determining device and a second determining device, wherein the first determining device is used for determining a characterization parameter for evaluating a lightning early warning result based on a lightning forecast record in a preset range in a preset time period, a preset early warning threshold value and the lightning record in the preset range in the preset time period; and
a correcting device for adjusting the preset early warning threshold value to re-determine the characterization parameter until the characterization parameter is greater than or equal to the preset value, and correcting the preset early warning threshold value to the preset early warning threshold value obtained by the last adjustment,
wherein the characterization parameters include: the effective early-warning rate is increased,
wherein the first determination means comprises:
the first determining module is used for determining the number of effective early warning records and the number of failure early warning records based on the lightning forecast records, the preset early warning threshold value and the lightning records;
a second determination module for determining an effective pre-warning rate based on the number of effective pre-warning records and the number of failed pre-warning records,
wherein the first determining module comprises:
a judging unit configured to judge whether lightning occurs within a time period corresponding to each of the lightning forecast records based on the lightning record;
the first determination unit is used for determining that a specific lightning forecast record is the effective early warning record and counting the number of the effective early warning records and the lightning distribution condition in the time period corresponding to the effective early warning record under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in the specific lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that early warning occurs and the lightning record shows that lightning occurs in the time period corresponding to the specific lightning forecast record;
a third determining unit, which determines the lightning distribution condition corresponding to the failure early warning based on the lightning distribution condition in the time period corresponding to the effective early warning record and the total lightning distribution condition in the lightning record; and
and the fourth determining unit is used for determining the number of the failure early warning records based on the lightning distribution condition corresponding to the failure early warning and the time interval threshold value of the occurrence of the adjacent lightning.
4. The system for correcting a lightning warning threshold according to claim 3,
the effective early warning rate is the ratio of the number of effective early warning records to the sum of the number of the effective early warning records and the number of failure early warning records;
under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in the lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that early warning occurs, if lightning occurs in the preset range in a first specific time period, the lightning forecast record corresponding to the first specific time period is the effective early warning record; and under the condition that the comparison result of the lightning forecast value in the lightning forecast record and the preset early warning threshold value shows that no early warning is sent out, if lightning occurs in the preset range in a third specific time period, the lightning forecast record corresponding to the third specific time period is the failure early warning record.
5. A lightning early warning assessment method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring lightning forecast records of a preset range in a preset time period and lightning records of the preset range in the preset time period; and
determining characterization parameters for evaluating lightning early warning results based on the corrected preset early warning threshold value obtained by the method for correcting lightning early warning threshold value according to any one of claims 1-2, the lightning forecast records of the preset range within the preset time period and the lightning records of the preset range within the preset time period.
6. The lightning early warning evaluation system is characterized by comprising:
the device comprises an acquisition device, a storage device and a processing device, wherein the acquisition device is used for acquiring lightning forecast records in a preset range in a preset time period and lightning records in the preset range in the preset time period; and
second determining means, configured to determine a characterization parameter for evaluating a lightning early warning result based on the corrected preset early warning threshold value obtained by the lightning early warning threshold value correcting system according to any one of claims 3 to 4, the lightning forecast records of the preset range within the preset time period, and the lightning records of the preset range within the preset time period.
7. A machine-readable storage medium having stored thereon instructions for causing a machine to execute the method for lightning warning threshold correction of any of claims 1-2 or the method for lightning warning assessment of claim 5.
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