CN112488371A - Pipeline intelligent early warning method and system based on big data - Google Patents
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Abstract
A pipeline intelligent early warning method and system based on big data comprises the following steps: 1) the method comprises the steps that data are obtained and classified according to different scenes, the scene classification at least comprises large-scale electricity protection, conventional pipeline operation and maintenance construction, ground mechanical construction, cable cutting in a pipeline, and meshing of a submarine cable and an animal, and a data set of each class is divided into training data and testing data; 2) building a Gaussian mixture model, and estimating parameters of the Gaussian mixture model by using an expectation maximization algorithm; 3) simultaneously inputting the training data of each class into a Gaussian mixture model for training; 4) simultaneously inputting the test data of each class into the trained Gaussian mixture model for testing; 5) and carrying out scene recognition by adopting a Gaussian mixture model passing the test. The invention is beneficial to realizing the purpose of fine management of scene operation and maintenance of the power pipeline.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of pipeline early warning, in particular to a pipeline intelligent early warning method and system based on big data.
Background
With the continuous revolution of social productivity and the rapid development of industrial automation and electronic informatization, the development of productivity has been unable to leave power supply, in order to ensure the safety and reliability of power supply, the power grid operation safety needs to be highly valued, although the power safety accident may not be directly expressed as major casualties or economic losses, the power safety accident can cause great influence on national economy, social stability and people's lives, the spread is wide, and the accident consequence has great influence. 599 order "regulations for emergency handling and investigation handling of electric power safety accidents" (hereinafter, abbreviated as "regulations") was officially released and implemented in 2011, 9/1. In the regulations, for power safety accidents which affect the safe and stable operation of a power system or the normal supply of power (heat power) and occur in the power production or power grid operation process, the classification and the standard of the accident grade, a report program, emergency treatment responsibility, investigation and treatment regulations and regulations connected with 493 number commands and the like are defined.
In the process of power production or power grid operation, analysis and judgment of various unsafe factors can indirectly influence the safe and stable operation of a power system or influence the normal supply of power, in order to control and avoid various risks, various measures are required to avoid the factors, and power supply load, equipment faults and power supply users need to be comprehensively analyzed to assist power grid managers in ensuring the safe and stable operation of power supply.
At present, analysis aiming at the management of the regulations and the safe operation of a power grid is in a manual judgment and analysis stage, and comprises the proportion of users borne by power transmission and transformation equipment, and the like. And the optical fiber sensing technology is also adopted, discrete data sets of time, place and event type are detected, and the decision basis provided for pipeline operation and maintenance personnel is insufficient in intuition.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention mainly aims to overcome the defects in the prior art, and provides a pipeline intelligent early warning method and system based on big data, which can accurately predict a scene mode according to data and a Gaussian mixture model, and is favorable for realizing the purpose of fine management of operation and maintenance of power pipeline sub-scenes.
The invention adopts the following technical scheme:
a pipeline intelligent early warning method based on big data is characterized by comprising the following steps:
1) the method comprises the steps that data are obtained and classified according to different scenes, the scene classification at least comprises large-scale electricity protection, conventional pipeline operation and maintenance construction, ground mechanical construction, cable cutting in a pipeline, and meshing of a submarine cable and an animal, and a data set of each class is divided into training data and testing data;
2) building a Gaussian mixture model, and estimating parameters of the Gaussian mixture model by using an expectation maximization algorithm;
3) simultaneously inputting the training data of each class into a Gaussian mixture model for training;
4) simultaneously inputting the test data of each class into the trained Gaussian mixture model for testing;
5) and carrying out scene recognition by adopting a Gaussian mixture model passing the test.
Preferably, in step 1), the data set of each class at least comprises three elements of time, position and single event type.
Preferably, in step 2), the gaussian mixture model is a linear combination of multiple single gaussian models, the number of the single gaussian models is the same as the number of the scene classifications, and each single gaussian model is a cluster, and the gaussian mixture model can be represented by the following formula:
wherein, X is a random variable,
is the kth cluster, Π, in the Gaussian mixture modelkThe mixed coefficient is the weight of each single Gaussian model and satisfies pik>0,
μkIs the mean value,
Is variance, and K is the total number of clusters.
Preferably, the estimating parameters of the gaussian mixture model by using the expectation maximization algorithm in step 2) specifically includes the following steps:
2.1) the expression of the Gaussian mixture model is substituted into the logarithm likelihood function as follows:
2.2) assumed data xnThen the probability that it belongs to the kth cluster is:
2.3) estimating the parameters of each cluster by adopting an iterative method, and assuming gamma (n, k) obtained in the last step as data xnProbability of belonging to the kth cluster, then each cluster generates γ (1, k) x1,...,γ(N,k)xNFrom these points, we can find:
and repeating the step 2.2) -the step 2.3) until the parameter values of the Gaussian mixture model are stable.
Preferably, the training process in step 3) is implemented by using a sklern library in an Anaconda environment.
Pipeline intelligent early warning system based on big data, which is characterized by comprising the following components
The data acquisition module is used for acquiring data and classifying the data according to different scenes, the scene classification at least comprises large-scale electricity conservation, conventional pipeline operation and maintenance construction, ground mechanical construction, cable cutting in the pipeline, and bite of a submarine cable and an animal, and a data group of each class is divided into training data and testing data.
The model construction module is used for constructing a Gaussian mixture model, estimating parameters of the Gaussian mixture model by using an expected value maximum algorithm and estimating the parameters of the Gaussian mixture model by using the expected value maximum algorithm;
a training module for inputting the training data of each class into the Gaussian mixture model for training
The test module is used for simultaneously inputting the test data of each class into the trained Gaussian mixture model for testing
And the recognition module is used for recognizing the scene by adopting the Gaussian mixture model passing the test.
As can be seen from the above description of the present invention, compared with the prior art, the present invention has the following advantages:
1. the method and the system of the invention combine the inherent characteristics of various hazardous events of the pipeline in the basic data dimension and combine the Gaussian mixture model to study and judge the on-site complete picture of the pipeline event, thereby achieving the purpose of fine management of pipeline scene operation and maintenance.
2. According to the method and the system, the time, the position and the single event type of each data set are combined and judged in the dimension of the data set through scene recognition, so that the fault type can be accurately and quickly determined, passive operation and maintenance are changed into active operation and maintenance, and the intellectualization of the inspection operation is realized; the traditional inspection mode mainly based on manpower is changed, so that manpower is liberated from a large amount of repetitive field work, the sharp contradiction between the rapid increase of the length of the operation and maintenance pipeline and the shortage of operation and maintenance personnel is greatly relieved, and the monitoring requirements of wide range, long distance and all weather are met.
3. The method and the system have wide universality, and can be quickly copied and popularized in a power system and other units with massive line management requirements, such as water service, gas, radio and television and other industries. The method is flexibly applied to the power conservation activities of pipeline outages and large-scale meetings, the theft prevention of cables and optical cables, the monitoring of dangerous rooms, the expansion of monitoring geology, road collapse and the like, and through the sharing of pipeline risk information, an intelligent safety city is built, and a ubiquitous Internet of things ecological circle with co-construction, co-treatment and co-win is built.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a graph of a single gaussian distribution and a mixed gaussian distribution model.
The invention is described in further detail below with reference to the figures and specific examples.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described below by means of specific embodiments.
The terms "first," "second," "third," and the like in this disclosure are used solely to distinguish one from another without necessarily requiring a particular order or sequence to be drawn, and without necessarily implying any particular importance. In the description, the directions or positional relationships indicated by "up", "down", "left", "right", "front", and "rear" are used based on the directions or positional relationships shown in the drawings, and are only for convenience of describing the present invention, and do not indicate or imply that the device referred to must have a specific direction, be constructed and operated in a specific direction, and thus, should not be construed as limiting the scope of the present invention. The specific meaning of the above terms in the present application can be understood by those of ordinary skill in the art as appropriate.
In addition, in the description of the present application, "a plurality" means two or more unless otherwise specified. "and/or" describes the association relationship of the associated objects, meaning that there may be three relationships, e.g., a and/or B, which may mean: a exists alone, A and B exist simultaneously, and B exists alone. The character "/" generally indicates that the front and rear related objects are in an "or" relationship.
Referring to fig. 1, a pipeline intelligent early warning method based on big data includes the following steps:
1) the data are obtained and classified according to different scenes, the scene classification at least comprises large-scale electricity protection, conventional pipeline operation and maintenance construction, ground mechanical construction, cable cutting in the pipeline, submarine cable and animal biting, and the data set of each class is divided into training data and testing data.
In reality, different hazardous events have specific time rules, position rules and action rules. There are also different characteristics in the underlying data detected by fiber optic sensing technology and there is a degree of correspondence. The actual duration of each event varies from tens of minutes to hours, during which time sets of underlying data are generated. Each set of these base data contains three elements, time, location, and a single event type. Each group of data has different time, discrete positions of several meters to hundreds of meters, and different single event types. That is, each actual event is composed of a plurality of single events in the whole duration process, for example, a construction event in a primary pipeline may include a plurality of events such as touching an optical cable, mechanical vibration, and pulling the optical cable, and the events may occur at intervals or continuously.
2) And (4) building a Gaussian mixture model, and estimating parameters of the Gaussian mixture model by using an expectation maximization algorithm.
The Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM) is a probability statistical model, and the output is a probability value between 0 and 1, which is a statistical method of soft classification. The number of the Gaussian distributions is set to be the same as the types of the scenes to be identified, one type corresponds to one Gaussian distribution, and the recognition result with the maximum probability is selected. This corresponds to a hard classification, i.e. one input corresponds to one determined output. The number of clusters of the mixture model is arbitrarily changed, and theoretically, the distribution of any continuous probability density function can be approximated. Compared with hard classification, the fusion of the method to other models is better.
Assuming that data obey the distribution of the Gaussian mixture model, linearly combining a plurality of single Gaussian models, taking each single Gaussian model as a cluster, and obtaining a model called the Gaussian mixture model.
Referring to fig. 2, the solid curves represent three single gaussian distributions and the dashed curves represent their linear sum, i.e., the mixed gaussian distribution. Almost all probability density functions can be well fitted as long as the mean, variance and mixed coefficients of the three single-Gaussian distributions can be adjusted.
The Gaussian mixture model can be represented by the following equation:
wherein, X is a random variable,
is the kth cluster, Π, in the Gaussian mixture modelkThe mixed coefficient is the weight of each single Gaussian model and satisfies pik>0,
μkIs the mean value,
Is the variance.
If there are three clusters for the three single gaussian distributions of fig. 2, then the number of components K is 3, ΠkIs a mixture coefficient (coefficient), satisfies Πk>0,
Then IIkIs the weight of each sub-gaussian model.
The use of GMMs is typically used for cluster distribution, where a point is randomly chosen in the GMM, i.e. one of K gaussian distributions is randomly selected, where each probability is a mixture coefficient pik. Then, one of the single gaussian distributions is selected, which becomes a problem of the ordinary gaussian distribution.
From the mixed Gaussian distribution formula, it can be seen that the total number of the unknown parameters is three, and the three are respectively the mixing coefficients pikMean value of μkVariance, variance
The method uses an Expectation Maximization (EM) algorithm to estimate the parameters of the GMM through the EM algorithm.
In GMM, assuming N data points, the probability that the Gaussian mixture distribution determined by the set of parameters will produce the given data points is the largest and is available
This product is then a likelihood function. Since the probability values are all small, it is common to take the logarithm of the probability values during calculation
If the maximum value of this function is found, the parameter at this time is considered to be the most suitable parameter, and the process of parameter estimation is completed, specifically including the following steps:
2.1) the expression of the Gaussian mixture model is substituted into the logarithm likelihood function as follows:
2.2) estimating the probability that the data is clustered by a certain cluster, i.e. assuming data XnThen the probability that it belongs to the kth cluster is:
2.3) estimating the parameters of each cluster by adopting an iterative method, and assuming gamma (n, k) obtained in the last step as data xnThe probability of belonging to the kth cluster, which can also be considered as the contribution of this cluster in generating this data, is considered by aggregating all the data points, which can be considered as each cluster generating γ (1, k) x1,...,γ(N,k)xNFrom these points, we can find:
repeating step 2.2) -step 2.3) until the Gaussian mixture model is obtainedParameter value pik、μkAnd
until stable.
3) And simultaneously inputting the training data of each class into a Gaussian mixture model for training.
The Gaussian mixture model training process of the invention can adopt a sklern library in an Anaconda environment, which is a machine learning library for python language and has various classification, regression and aggregation algorithms including random forest, gradient enhancement, k-means and the like. And simultaneously inputting training data of each class according to the classification of the scene into the Gaussian mixture model for training, respectively corresponding to large-scale power conservation, conventional pipeline operation and maintenance construction, ground mechanical construction, cable cutting in the pipeline, submarine cables, animal biting and the like to obtain a single Gaussian model corresponding to the scene, and then carrying out the next test.
4) And simultaneously inputting the test data of each class into the trained mixed Gaussian model for testing, and directly using the single Gaussian model which meets the accuracy requirement after testing in actual work.
5) And carrying out scene recognition by adopting a Gaussian mixture model passing the test.
The invention also provides a pipeline intelligent early warning system based on big data, which adopts the pipeline intelligent early warning method based on big data, and comprises the following modules:
the data acquisition module is used for acquiring data and classifying the data according to different scenes, the scene classification at least comprises large-scale electricity conservation, conventional pipeline operation and maintenance construction, ground mechanical construction, cable cutting in the pipeline, and bite of a submarine cable and an animal, and a data group of each class is divided into training data and testing data.
The model construction module is used for constructing a Gaussian mixture model, estimating parameters of the Gaussian mixture model by using an expected value maximum algorithm and estimating the parameters of the Gaussian mixture model by using the expected value maximum algorithm;
the training module is used for inputting the training data of each class into the Gaussian mixture model for training;
the test module is used for inputting the test data of each class into the trained Gaussian mixture model for testing;
and the recognition module is used for recognizing scenes by adopting the Gaussian mixture model passing the test and outputting the recognized specific scene type, such as 'cable cutting by theft'.
For example: theft-cutting device for cable in pipeline
The practical process has the following characteristics: a. the method is characterized in that the method is mainly used for controlling the opening and closing of manhole and well covers of pipelines, stepping or touching facilities in the pipelines, cutting by saws, pulling cables and the like. Each feature, if considered individually, is similar or even identical to an individual feature of the other events, and the combination of features becomes an inherent feature that is different from the other events.
Data given by the optical fiber sensing technology is a data set with time stamps, discrete positions and discrete disturbance types, and the discrete data are aggregated according to the prior classification in the GMM training process. By adopting the Gaussian mixture model, a macroscopic scene type result can be given to the cable stealing and cutting event according to the obtained scene mode through prediction.
The above description is only an embodiment of the present invention, but the design concept of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any insubstantial modifications made by using the design concept should fall within the scope of infringing the present invention.
Claims (6)
1. A pipeline intelligent early warning method based on big data is characterized by comprising the following steps:
1) the method comprises the steps that data are obtained and classified according to different scenes, the scene classification at least comprises large-scale electricity protection, conventional pipeline operation and maintenance construction, ground mechanical construction, cable cutting in a pipeline, and meshing of a submarine cable and an animal, and a data set of each class is divided into training data and testing data;
2) building a Gaussian mixture model, and estimating parameters of the Gaussian mixture model by using an expectation maximization algorithm;
3) simultaneously inputting the training data of each class into a Gaussian mixture model for training;
4) simultaneously inputting the test data of each class into the trained Gaussian mixture model for testing;
5) and carrying out scene recognition by adopting a Gaussian mixture model passing the test.
2. The big-data-based intelligent pipeline early warning method as claimed in claim 1, wherein in step 1), the data set of each class at least comprises three elements of time, position and single event type.
3. The big-data-based intelligent pipeline early warning method according to claim 1, wherein in the step 2), the mixture gaussian model is a linear combination of a plurality of single gaussian models, the number of the single gaussian models is the same as the number of the scene classifications, and each single gaussian model is a cluster, and the mixture gaussian model can be represented by the following formula:
wherein, X is a random variable,
is the kth cluster, Π, in the Gaussian mixture modelkThe mixed coefficient is the weight of each single Gaussian model and satisfies pik>0,
μkIs the mean value,
Is variance, and K is the total number of clusters.
4. The intelligent pipeline early warning method based on big data as claimed in claim 3, wherein the estimating of the parameters of the Gaussian mixture model in step 2) by using the expectation maximization algorithm specifically comprises the following steps:
2.1) the expression of the Gaussian mixture model is substituted into the logarithm likelihood function as follows:
2.2) assumed data xnThen the probability that it belongs to the kth cluster is:
2.3) estimating the parameters of each cluster by adopting an iterative method, and assuming gamma (n, k) obtained in the last step as data xnProbability of belonging to the kth cluster, then each cluster generates γ (1, k) x1,...,γ(N,k)xNFrom these points, we can find:
and repeating the step 2.2) -the step 2.3) until the parameter values of the Gaussian mixture model are stable.
5. The big-data-based intelligent pipeline early warning method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the training process in step 3) is implemented by using a sklern library in an Anaconda environment.
6. Pipeline intelligent early warning system based on big data, which is characterized by comprising the following components
The data acquisition module is used for acquiring data and classifying the data according to different scenes, the scene classification at least comprises large-scale electricity conservation, conventional pipeline operation and maintenance construction, ground mechanical construction, cable cutting in the pipeline, and bite of a submarine cable and an animal, and a data group of each class is divided into training data and testing data.
The model construction module is used for constructing a Gaussian mixture model, estimating parameters of the Gaussian mixture model by using an expected value maximum algorithm and estimating the parameters of the Gaussian mixture model by using the expected value maximum algorithm;
a training module for inputting the training data of each class into the Gaussian mixture model for training
The test module is used for simultaneously inputting the test data of each class into the trained Gaussian mixture model for testing
And the recognition module is used for recognizing the scene by adopting the Gaussian mixture model passing the test.
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