CN112434946A - Power distribution network loop closing risk value calculation method, equipment and storage medium - Google Patents
Power distribution network loop closing risk value calculation method, equipment and storage medium Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a method, equipment and a storage medium for calculating a closed loop risk value of a power distribution network, wherein the method comprises the following steps: determining the consequence severity, social influence factors and load importance factors of the loop closing operation according to the position of the loop closing operation; calculating the consequence value of the closed loop according to the consequence severity, the social influence factor and the load importance factor; acquiring an operation factor of a loop closing operation, and calculating a probability value of risk occurrence of the loop closing operation according to the operation factor of the loop closing operation; and calculating a risk value of the closed loop according to the result value and the probability value. The invention solves the problem that the loop closing risk cannot be quantitatively evaluated at present.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power supply, in particular to a method, equipment and a storage medium for calculating a closed loop risk value of a power distribution network.
Background
With the acceleration of the construction of the power distribution network, the dual power supply and the multi-power supply become effective power supply modes for improving the power supply reliability of the power distribution network. In this mode, the user's power down time can be minimized by the loop closing operation. However, during the loop closing operation, due to the voltage difference between the two sides of the loop closing switch, the phase angle difference, the complex operation parameters of the power distribution line, the unpredictability of the operation mode adjustment of the main network and the like, an excessive loop current may be generated in the loop closing operation loop, which may cause overcurrent protection malfunction of the power distribution line, and further cause power supply accidents.
Because technical analysis means mastered by a dispatcher are very limited, when the non-stop power-supply operation is carried out, whether loop closing is carried out or not can be judged only by the past experience, so that judgment deviation is easy to occur, quantitative analysis is lacked for possible loop closing risks, a systematic theoretical calculation scheme and an evaluation standard are absent, actual operation results have high randomness, and certain operation risks exist.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, it is desirable to provide a method, an apparatus and a storage medium for calculating a loop closing risk value of a power distribution network, so as to solve the problem that the loop closing risk cannot be evaluated quantitatively at present.
In a first aspect, the present invention provides a method for calculating a loop closing risk value of a power distribution network, including the following steps:
determining the consequence severity, social influence factors and load importance factors of the loop closing operation according to the position of the loop closing operation;
calculating the consequence value of the closed loop according to the consequence severity, the social influence factor and the load importance factor;
acquiring an operation factor of a loop closing operation, and calculating a probability value of risk occurrence of the loop closing operation according to the operation factor of the loop closing operation;
and calculating a risk value of the closed loop according to the result value and the probability value.
Preferably, in the method for calculating the power distribution network loop closing risk value, the method for determining the severity of the consequences of the loop closing operation is as follows:
and determining the loss load after the loop closing operation, calculating a reference score according to the loss load and a reference score calculation formula, and calculating the severity of the consequence according to the reference score and the area coefficient.
Preferably, in the method for calculating the power distribution network loop closing risk value, the method for determining the load importance factor of the loop closing operation includes:
the method comprises the steps of obtaining the number of power supplies, the configuration condition of the spare power automatic switching device, the configuration condition of the emergency power supply, the power failure sensitivity and the user level, and determining a load importance factor according to the number of the power supplies, the configuration condition of the spare power automatic switching device, the configuration condition of the emergency power supply, the power failure sensitivity and the user level.
Preferably, in the method for calculating the loop closing risk value of the power distribution network, the step of calculating the loop closing consequence value according to the consequence severity, the social influence factor and the load importance factor specifically includes:
and multiplying the consequence severity, the social influence factor and the load importance factor, and taking the obtained product as the consequence value of the closed loop.
Preferably, in the calculation method for the loop closing risk value of the power distribution network, the operation factors include an equipment type factor, a fault category factor, a historical data statistical factor, a weather influence factor, an equipment defect influence factor, a maintenance management factor, a maintenance time factor, a field construction factor and a control measure factor.
Preferably, in the method for calculating the power distribution network loop closing risk value, the method for calculating the probability value of the risk of the loop closing operation includes:
multiplying the equipment type factor, the fault category factor, the historical data statistical factor, the weather influence factor, the equipment defect influence factor, the overhaul management factor, the overhaul time factor, the field construction factor and the control measure factor, and taking the obtained product as the probability value of the occurrence risk of the loop closing operation.
Preferably, in the method for calculating the power distribution network loop closing risk value, the step of calculating the loop closing risk value according to the consequence value and the probability value specifically includes:
and multiplying the result value and the probability value, and taking the obtained product as a risk value of the closed loop.
Preferably, the method for calculating the loop closing risk value of the power distribution network further includes:
and grading the risk of the closed-loop operation according to the risk value.
In a second aspect, the present invention further provides a power distribution network loop closing risk value calculation device, including: a processor and a memory;
the memory has stored thereon a computer readable program executable by the processor;
the processor, when executing the computer readable program, implements the steps in the power distribution network closed loop risk value calculation method as described above.
In a third aspect, the present invention also provides a computer-readable storage medium, which stores one or more programs, where the one or more programs are executable by one or more processors to implement the steps in the method for calculating a loop closing risk value of a power distribution network as described above.
[ PROBLEMS ] the present invention
According to the method, the equipment and the storage medium for calculating the loop closing risk value of the power distribution network, the severity degree of the consequence of the loop closing operation, the social influence factor and the factor conforming to the importance are determined according to the position of the loop closing operation, the consequence value of the loop closing operation is quantized, the probability value of the risk of the loop closing operation is quantized according to the operation factor of the loop closing operation, and then a specific loop closing risk value is calculated, so that the risk of the loop closing operation is presented in a quantized mode, the loop closing operation judgment of workers is facilitated, the process of manual judgment is avoided, and the risk of the operation is reduced.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for calculating a loop closing risk value of a power distribution network according to a preferred embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a schematic operating environment diagram of a power distribution network closed loop risk value calculation program according to a preferred embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate preferred embodiments of the invention and together with the description, serve to explain the principles of the invention and not to limit the scope of the invention.
Referring to fig. 1, a method for calculating a loop closing risk value of a power distribution network according to an embodiment of the present invention includes the following steps:
s100, determining the severity of the consequences, the social influence factor and the load importance factor of the loop closing operation according to the position of the loop closing operation.
Specifically, the position of the loop closing operation can be obtained according to the topological structure of the power distribution network, and various reference parameters of the loop closing operation can be further obtained by obtaining the position of the loop closing operation.
Specifically, the method for determining the severity of the consequences of the loop closing operation comprises the following steps:
and determining the loss load after the loop closing operation, calculating a reference score according to the loss load and a reference score calculation formula, and calculating the severity of the consequence according to the reference score and the area coefficient.
Specifically, when the loss load after the closed loop operation is obtained, the base score may be calculated by a base score calculation formula, specifically, the base score calculation formula is: after the benchmark score is obtained, because the severity of the consequences generated by each region is different, the invention also considers the region coefficient in the calculation of the severity of the consequences, and the severity of the consequences can be obtained by multiplying the benchmark score and the region coefficient. In specific implementation, n is 50, in other words, the embodiment of the present invention calculates a loss load of 50 points per 1 kilokilowatt as a reference score.
The social influence factors correspond to the load importance factors, and the corresponding social influence factors can be directly searched through the load importance factors. Therefore, when determining the social influence factor, the load importance factor needs to be determined first, and specifically, the method for determining the load importance factor of the closed loop operation comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the steps of obtaining the number of power supplies, the configuration condition of the spare power automatic switching device, the configuration condition of the emergency power supply, the power failure sensitivity and the user level, and determining a load importance factor according to the number of the power supplies, the configuration condition of the spare power automatic switching device, the configuration condition of the emergency power supply, the power failure sensitivity and the user level.
Specifically, for the load importance factor of an important user, the value of the load importance factor is 1.6-4.0 according to the number of power supplies, whether a spare power automatic switching device is configured or not, whether an emergency power supply is configured or not, the sensitivity of the user to power failure, the level of the important user and the like, and the value of the load importance factor is larger when the user is more sensitive to power failure and has larger social influence after power failure.
S200, calculating the closing ring consequence value according to the consequence severity, the social influence factor and the load importance factor.
In specific implementation, the step S200 specifically includes:
and multiplying the consequence severity, the social influence factor and the load importance factor, and taking the obtained product as the consequence value of the closed loop.
S300, obtaining operation factors of the loop closing operation, and calculating probability value of risk of the loop closing operation according to the operation factors of the loop closing operation.
Specifically, the operation factors of the closed loop operation include an equipment type factor, a fault category factor, a historical data statistics factor, a weather effect factor, an equipment defect effect factor, a service management factor, a service time factor, a site construction factor, and a control measure factor. The operation factors of the loop closing operation are preset numerical values, and each operation factor of the loop closing operation can be directly searched in data, so that the probability value of the risk of the loop closing operation is calculated. In specific implementation, the method for calculating the probability value of the risk of the loop closing operation comprises the following steps:
multiplying the equipment type factor, the fault category factor, the historical data statistical factor, the weather influence factor, the equipment defect influence factor, the overhaul management factor, the overhaul time factor, the field construction factor and the control measure factor, and taking the obtained product as the probability value of the occurrence risk of the loop closing operation.
S400, calculating a risk value of the closed loop according to the result value and the probability value.
Specifically, after the consequence value and the probability value are calculated, the risk value of the closed loop can be calculated according to the consequence value and the probability value, and specifically, the step S400 specifically includes:
and multiplying the result value and the probability value, and taking the obtained product as a risk value of the closed loop.
In a preferred embodiment, after the step S400, the method further includes:
and grading the risk of the closed-loop operation according to the risk value.
Specifically, in order to further facilitate risk assessment of workers, corresponding risk ratings are set according to different risk values, risk values are formed according to the occurrence possibility and the hazard degree of the power grid loop closing operation risk, and the power distribution network risk is divided into three levels, namely, a level i (major risk), a level ii (major risk), and a level iii (general risk). The specific judgment is as follows:
a) the risk value is more than or equal to 1200, and the risk is a level I risk;
b) the 1200 > risk value is more than or equal to 600, and is a level II risk;
c) the 600 > risk value is more than or equal to 200, and the risk is level III risk.
Therefore, after the staff obtains the specific risk value, the corresponding risk rating can be obtained according to the magnitude of the risk value, and whether the loop closing operation is carried out or not is confirmed according to the risk rating. In addition, after the risk rating is obtained, in practical application, on the basis of risk identification and evaluation, risk control measures for converting the power distribution network into power supply operation without power outage in the jurisdiction range of the district and the power supply station can be scientifically formulated, wherein the risk control measures comprise technical and organizational measures, pre-control measures are adopted in advance, the risk of the power distribution network is reduced through risk grading, and the risk is controlled to be in an acceptable degree.
According to the invention, the severity of the closing effect of the closing operation, the social influence factor and the importance factor are determined according to the position of the closing operation, the value of the closing effect is quantized, the probability value of the risk of the closing operation is quantized according to the operation factor of the closing operation, and a specific closing risk value is calculated, so that the risk of the closing operation is presented in a quantized manner, the closing operation judgment by a worker is facilitated, the process of manual judgment is avoided, and the risk of the operation is reduced.
As shown in fig. 2, based on the above power distribution network loop closing risk value calculation method, the present invention also provides a power distribution network loop closing risk value calculation device, where the power distribution network loop closing risk value calculation device may be a mobile terminal, a desktop computer, a notebook computer, a palm computer, a server, or other calculation devices. The power distribution network loop closing risk value calculation device comprises a processor 10, a memory 20 and a display 30. Fig. 2 shows only some of the components of the distribution network closed loop risk value calculation apparatus, but it should be understood that not all of the shown components are required to be implemented, and more or fewer components may be implemented instead.
The storage 20 may be an internal storage unit of the distribution network loop closing risk value calculation device in some embodiments, for example, a hard disk or a memory of the distribution network loop closing risk value calculation device. In other embodiments, the memory 20 may also be an external storage device of the power distribution network closed loop risk value calculation device, such as a plug-in hard disk, a Smart Media Card (SMC), a Secure Digital (SD) Card, a Flash memory Card (Flash Card), and the like equipped on the power distribution network closed loop risk value calculation device. Further, the memory 20 may also include both an internal storage unit of the power distribution network closed loop risk value calculation device and an external storage device. The memory 20 is used for storing application software installed in the power distribution network loop closing risk value calculation device and various types of data, such as program codes for installing the power distribution network loop closing risk value calculation device. The memory 20 may also be used to temporarily store data that has been output or is to be output. In an embodiment, the storage 20 stores a power distribution network loop closing risk value calculation program 40, and the power distribution network loop closing risk value calculation program 40 can be executed by the processor 10, so as to implement the power distribution network loop closing risk value calculation method according to the embodiments of the present application.
The processor 10 may be a Central Processing Unit (CPU), a microprocessor or other data Processing chip in some embodiments, and is configured to run program codes stored in the memory 20 or process data, such as executing the power distribution network loop closing risk value calculation method.
The display 30 may be an LED display, a liquid crystal display, a touch-sensitive liquid crystal display, an OLED (Organic Light-Emitting Diode) touch panel, or the like in some embodiments. The display 30 is used for displaying information on the power distribution network closed loop risk value calculation device and displaying a visual user interface. The components 10-30 of the distribution network loop closing risk value calculation device communicate with each other via a system bus.
In an embodiment, when the processor 10 executes the program 40 for calculating a loop closing risk value of the power distribution network in the memory 20, the steps in the method for calculating a loop closing risk value of a power distribution network according to the above embodiment are implemented, and since the above detailed description has been given to the method for calculating a loop closing risk value of a power distribution network, detailed description thereof is omitted here.
In summary, according to the method, the device and the storage medium for calculating the loop closing risk value of the power distribution network provided by the invention, the severity of the consequence of the loop closing operation, the social influence factor and the factor conforming to importance are determined according to the position of the loop closing operation, the consequence value of the loop closing operation is quantized, the probability value of the risk of the loop closing operation is quantized according to the operation factor of the loop closing operation, and a specific loop closing risk value is calculated, so that the risk of the loop closing operation is presented in a quantized manner, a worker can conveniently judge the loop closing operation, the process of manual judgment is avoided, and the risk of the operation is reduced.
Of course, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that all or part of the processes of the methods of the above embodiments may be implemented by a computer program instructing relevant hardware (such as a processor, a controller, etc.), and the program may be stored in a computer readable storage medium, and when executed, the program may include the processes of the above method embodiments. The storage medium may be a memory, a magnetic disk, an optical disk, etc.
The above description is only for the preferred embodiment of the present invention, but the scope of the present invention is not limited thereto, and any changes or substitutions that can be easily conceived by those skilled in the art within the technical scope of the present invention are included in the scope of the present invention.
Claims (10)
1. A power distribution network loop closing risk value calculation method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
determining the consequence severity, social influence factors and load importance factors of the loop closing operation according to the position of the loop closing operation;
calculating the consequence value of the closed loop according to the consequence severity, the social influence factor and the load importance factor;
acquiring an operation factor of a loop closing operation, and calculating a probability value of risk occurrence of the loop closing operation according to the operation factor of the loop closing operation;
and calculating a risk value of the closed loop according to the result value and the probability value.
2. The method for calculating the loop closing risk value of the power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the method for determining the severity of the consequences of the loop closing operation comprises the following steps:
and determining the loss load after the loop closing operation, calculating a reference score according to the loss load and a reference score calculation formula, and calculating the severity of the consequence according to the reference score and the area coefficient.
3. The method for calculating the loop closing risk value of the power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the method for determining the load importance factor of the loop closing operation comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the steps of obtaining the number of power supplies, the configuration condition of the spare power automatic switching device, the configuration condition of the emergency power supply, the power failure sensitivity and the user level, and determining a load importance factor according to the number of the power supplies, the configuration condition of the spare power automatic switching device, the configuration condition of the emergency power supply, the power failure sensitivity and the user level.
4. The method for calculating the loop closing risk value of the power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the step of calculating the loop closing consequence value according to the consequence severity, the social influence factor and the load importance factor specifically comprises the following steps:
and multiplying the consequence severity, the social influence factor and the load importance factor, and taking the obtained product as the consequence value of the closed loop.
5. The method for calculating the loop closing risk value of the power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the operation factors comprise an equipment type factor, a fault category factor, a historical data statistical factor, a weather influence factor, an equipment defect influence factor, a maintenance management factor, a maintenance time factor, a field construction factor and a control measure factor.
6. The method for calculating the loop closing risk value of the power distribution network according to claim 5, wherein the method for calculating the probability value of the risk of the loop closing operation comprises the following steps:
multiplying the equipment type factor, the fault category factor, the historical data statistical factor, the weather influence factor, the equipment defect influence factor, the overhaul management factor, the overhaul time factor, the field construction factor and the control measure factor, and taking the obtained product as the probability value of the occurrence risk of the loop closing operation.
7. The method for calculating the loop closing risk value of the power distribution network according to claim 1, wherein the step of calculating the loop closing risk value according to the consequence value and the probability value specifically comprises the steps of:
and multiplying the result value and the probability value, and taking the obtained product as a risk value of the closed loop.
8. The method for calculating the loop closing risk value of the power distribution network according to claim 1, further comprising:
and grading the risk of the closed-loop operation according to the risk value.
9. A distribution network closes ring risk value computational equipment, its characterized in that includes: a processor and a memory;
the memory has stored thereon a computer readable program executable by the processor;
the processor, when executing the computer readable program, implements the steps in the calculation method for loop closing risk value of power distribution network according to any one of claims 1 to 8.
10. A computer-readable storage medium, wherein the computer-readable storage medium stores one or more programs, which are executable by one or more processors to implement the steps in the method for calculating a loop closing risk value of a power distribution network according to any one of claims 1 to 8.
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