CN111105140A - Comprehensive risk assessment method for running state of power distribution network - Google Patents
Comprehensive risk assessment method for running state of power distribution network Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a comprehensive risk assessment method for the running state of a power distribution network. The invention uses the fault tree to represent the logical relationship between certain accident possibly occurring in the system and certain risk factor causing the accident, thus the power failure risk of the power distribution network fault can be intuitively evaluated.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of power distribution networks of power systems, and particularly relates to a comprehensive risk assessment method for an operation state of a power distribution network.
Background
The safety of the power grid refers to the resistance of the power grid to disturbance events such as faults and the like, and directly reflects the robustness of the power grid and the uninterrupted power supply capacity to users. The safe operation of the power distribution network is an indispensable important part for the safe operation of the whole power grid, and is also the key for improving the operation level of a power supply system. The data show that: power failure accidents in power systems are caused by power distribution system faults, for about 80%. Therefore, the method has important theoretical and practical significance for accurately evaluating the power failure risk of the power distribution network, positioning weak links, and improving the power supply safety by taking measures.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to establish a scientific and comprehensive power distribution network fault power failure risk comprehensive evaluation method, which can reflect the whole fault risk level, technical management and other weaknesses of a power distribution network, indicate the key points and directions of the power distribution network for enhancing the fault risk resistance capacity, and lay a good foundation for future urban power distribution network development.
The invention provides a comprehensive risk assessment method for the running state of a power distribution network, which comprises the following steps of:
step S1, system initialization: selecting risk factors influencing the running state of the power distribution network, wherein the risk factors comprise risk factors in the technical aspect, including load rate of each main primary device, historical fault data of each main primary device, voltage quality of each feeder line and three-phase imbalance historical data of each feeder line of the power distribution network to be evaluated; risk factors in management aspects, including engineering management factors, material management factors, contract management factors and operation management factors, and risk factors in natural aspects, including severe climate factors, geological hydrological factors and local safety factors;
step S2: collecting data: collecting the reason of the evaluated power distribution network accidents and related historical data, and calculating the probability of accidents caused by the reason;
step S3: taking the accident state of the power distribution network as a fault tree top event, taking various risk factors as cause events, and drawing a tree diagram reflecting the cause and effect relationship;
calculating the result of each step of operation according to the fault tree model and a given risk result target, and judging whether the result is a development fault of the previous step;
and calculating the risk value of each step and the total risk value in the scheduling operation process according to a risk theory.
Specifically, in step S2, the collected data is analyzed to obtain a gradual consistency conclusion, and the probability of the accident caused by the reason is calculated with reference to the consistency conclusion;
particularly, when a new accident occurs, the probability of the accident caused by the reason event is recalculated, and the fault tree is updated; if the estimated physical architecture of the distribution network is changed, updating data corresponding to the related risk elements; if a new risk source is found, the fault tree is updated.
The invention has the beneficial effects that:
the invention uses tree diagram to represent the logic relation between some accident and some risk factor to evaluate the power failure risk of power distribution network.
Additional advantages, objects, and features of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows and in part will become apparent to those having ordinary skill in the art upon examination of the following or may be learned from practice of the invention. The objectives and other advantages of the invention will be realized and attained by the structure particularly pointed out in the written description and claims hereof.
Drawings
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention will be further described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, in which:
fig. 1 is a flowchart of a comprehensive risk assessment method for an operating state of a power distribution network according to the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a fault tree in a power distribution network operation state risk comprehensive assessment method according to a specific embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
Hereinafter, preferred embodiments of the present invention will be described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings. It should be understood that the preferred embodiments are illustrative of the invention only and are not limiting upon the scope of the invention.
As shown in fig. 1, the comprehensive assessment method for risk of operating state of power distribution network provided by the invention comprises the following steps:
step S1: stage S1 of system initialization: selecting risk factors influencing the running state of the power distribution network, such as risk factors mainly evaluating load rate of each main primary device, historical fault data of each main primary device, voltage quality of each feeder line and the like in the technical aspect of FIG. 2, wherein the management aspect comprises risk factors such as engineering management, material management and running management, and the natural aspect comprises risk factors such as severe climate, geological hydrology and local safety;
step S2, S2 stage of collecting data: collecting the reasons of the accidents of the power distribution network in a certain area evaluated by the preferred embodiment all the year round and the related historical data, analyzing the collected data to give the causes and the conclusions of the accidents, obtaining a gradual consistency conclusion after analyzing and summarizing, and calculating the probability of the accidents caused by the reasons, wherein the analyzing process can adopt anonymous analysis of a plurality of expert main bodies, also can adopt a big data technology to combine with a historical database for AI analysis, the analyzing result of a certain case is shown in the following table, and the step enters the stage S3 after the analysis is finished;
step S3: stage S3 of compiling fault tree: taking the distribution network accident state as a fault tree top event, taking various risk factors as cause events, and drawing a tree diagram reflecting the cause and effect relationship, wherein as shown in fig. 2, the step of S4 is carried out after the tree diagram is drawn;
step S4 stage S4 of data maintenance: when a new accident occurs, the operation of step S2 is performed, the probability of the accident caused by the cause event is recalculated, the fault tree is updated, and if the estimated physical architecture of the distribution network changes, such as adding elements such as feeder lines and transformers, the data corresponding to the related risk elements also needs to be updated. The fault tree is also updated if a new source of risk is found.
It should be recognized that embodiments of the present invention can be realized and implemented by computer hardware, a combination of hardware and software, or by computer instructions stored in a non-transitory computer readable memory. The methods may be implemented in a computer program using standard programming techniques, including a non-transitory computer-readable storage medium configured with the computer program, where the storage medium so configured causes a computer to operate in a specific and predefined manner, according to the methods and figures described in the detailed description. Each program may be implemented in a high level procedural or object oriented programming language to communicate with a computer system. However, the program(s) can be implemented in assembly or machine language, if desired. In any case, the language may be a compiled or interpreted language. Furthermore, the program can be run on a programmed application specific integrated circuit for this purpose.
Further, the operations of processes described herein can be performed in any suitable order unless otherwise indicated herein or otherwise clearly contradicted by context. The processes described herein (or variations and/or combinations thereof) may be performed under the control of one or more computer systems configured with executable instructions, and may be implemented as code (e.g., executable instructions, one or more computer programs, or one or more applications) collectively executed on one or more processors, by hardware, or combinations thereof. The computer program includes a plurality of instructions executable by one or more processors.
Further, the method may be implemented in any type of computing platform operatively connected to a suitable interface, including but not limited to a personal computer, mini computer, mainframe, workstation, networked or distributed computing environment, separate or integrated computer platform, or in communication with a charged particle tool or other imaging device, and the like. Aspects of the invention may be embodied in machine-readable code stored on a non-transitory storage medium or device, whether removable or integrated into a computing platform, such as a hard disk, optically read and/or write storage medium, RAM, ROM, or the like, such that it may be read by a programmable computer, which when read by the storage medium or device, is operative to configure and operate the computer to perform the procedures described herein. Further, the machine-readable code, or portions thereof, may be transmitted over a wired or wireless network. The invention described herein includes these and other different types of non-transitory computer-readable storage media when such media include instructions or programs that implement the steps described above in conjunction with a microprocessor or other data processor. When the comprehensive assessment method and the comprehensive assessment technology for the risk of the operating state of the power distribution network are programmed, the method also comprises the computer per se.
A computer program can be applied to input data to perform the functions described herein to transform the input data to generate output data that is stored to non-volatile memory. The output information may also be applied to one or more output devices, such as a display. In a preferred embodiment of the invention, the transformed data represents physical and tangible objects, including particular visual depictions of physical and tangible objects produced on a display.
Finally, the above embodiments are only intended to illustrate the technical solutions of the present invention and not to limit the present invention, and although the present invention has been described in detail with reference to the preferred embodiments, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that modifications or equivalent substitutions may be made on the technical solutions of the present invention without departing from the spirit and scope of the technical solutions, and all of them should be covered by the claims of the present invention.
Claims (3)
1. A comprehensive assessment method for risks of operating states of a power distribution network is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
step S1, system initialization: selecting risk factors influencing the running state of the power distribution network, wherein the risk factors comprise risk factors in the technical aspect, including load rate of each main primary device, historical fault data of each main primary device, voltage quality of each feeder line and three-phase imbalance historical data of each feeder line of the power distribution network to be evaluated; risk factors in management aspects, including engineering management factors, material management factors, contract management factors and operation management factors, and risk factors in natural aspects, including severe climate factors, geological hydrological factors and local safety factors;
step S2: collecting data: collecting the reason of the evaluated power distribution network accidents and related historical data, and calculating the probability of accidents caused by the reason;
step S3: and (3) taking the power distribution network accident state as a fault tree top event, taking various risk factors as cause events, and drawing a tree diagram reflecting the cause and effect relationship.
2. The comprehensive assessment method for the risk of the operating state of the power distribution network according to claim 1, characterized in that: in step S2, the collected data is analyzed to obtain a gradual consistency conclusion, and the probability of the accident caused by the reason is calculated with reference to the consistency conclusion.
3. The comprehensive assessment method for the risk of the operating state of the power distribution network according to claim 1, characterized in that: further comprising step S4: when a new accident occurs, recalculating the probability of the accident caused by the reason event, and updating a fault tree; if the estimated physical architecture of the distribution network is changed, updating data corresponding to the related risk elements; if a new risk source is found, the fault tree is updated.
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Cited By (1)
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| CN117113157A (en) * | 2023-10-23 | 2023-11-24 | 国网安徽省电力有限公司合肥供电公司 | Platform district power consumption fault detection system based on artificial intelligence |
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