CN112380686A - Weapon equipment system contribution calculation method based on discrete event simulation - Google Patents
Weapon equipment system contribution calculation method based on discrete event simulation Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention relates to a weapon equipment system contribution calculation method based on discrete event simulation, which comprises the following steps: the method comprises the following steps: giving out a fighting scenario according to a fighting background, and determining the range of a fighting system; step two: establishing a combat activity model and a combat event tracking model based on a national defense department architecture framework, and establishing a discrete event simulation model of a combat process in discrete event simulation software; step three: performing efficiency calculation on each combat event node in the simulation model by applying an equipment efficiency calculation model, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method or a simulation analysis method and the like to obtain an efficiency interval of completing each combat event node by the weapon equipment; step four: setting the acquired effect value as the probability value of each combat event node successfully carried out, and carrying out multiple times of simulation to obtain the final successful probability of system combat; step five: adding weaponry or improving the performance of the weaponry, repeating the third step and the fourth step, analyzing the victory improvement of the system combat after the equipment performance is added or improved, and obtaining the system contribution degree of the weaponry.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of equipment simulation, and particularly relates to a weapon equipment system contribution calculation method based on a discrete event simulation method.
Background
The modern war gradually evolves into the war between systems, and under the background of the times, any novel weaponry system must be homed with a higher-level weaponry system as a fusion carrier and capability. Aiming at the contradiction between the development expense and the development requirement of the weapon equipment, the concept of system contribution degree is used for calculating the contribution degree of the weapon equipment to the system to complete the battle task, so that a basis is provided for the development demonstration of the equipment.
At present, many scholars research the calculation method of the contribution degree of the system. In the existing research results, the capability requirement satisfaction degree of equipment, a rule reasoning method and a combat ring theory are often used for calculating the contribution degree of an equipment system. The Chinese patent CN2017110174678.5 task-oriented weapon equipment system contribution degree evaluation method provides a task-oriented weapon equipment system contribution degree calculation method. The method mainly comprises four steps, wherein firstly, a combat mission is analyzed, and the capacity requirement of a weapon equipment system and the capacity requirement of weapon equipment to be calculated are analyzed; then analyzing the degree of satisfaction of the actual capacity of the weapon equipment to the capacity requirement of the system to obtain the degree of satisfaction of the weapon equipment to be calculated to the system combat requirement; then, according to a system structure model of the weapon equipment system, establishing an efficiency calculation model of the weapon equipment system, and comparing changes of the weapon equipment system efficiency before and after adding the weapon equipment to be calculated to obtain the improvement degree of the weapon equipment to be calculated on the system efficiency; and finally, integrating the capacity requirement satisfaction degree and the system efficiency improvement degree to obtain the system contribution degree of the weaponry to be calculated under a certain combat mission.
The description of system operation based on the operation efficiency analysis of the index system mainly comes from expert experience and theoretical analysis, and in order to make up for the deficiency of the method in describing the real operation scene, the operation efficiency of weaponry is calculated through a system operation simulation test, so that the method for analyzing the system contribution degree gradually receives attention of people. The method needs to arrange combat scenes, compile equipment types and quantity, formulate inner-layer combat logic, and generally take a comprehensive index of system damage ratio in a simulation result as an evaluation index of combat effectiveness so as to analyze the system contribution degree of weapons and equipment.
When the contribution degree of the weapon equipment system is evaluated by the technical scheme of the Chinese patent 'CN 2017110174678.5 task-oriented weapon equipment system contribution degree evaluation method', the efficiency of the lower-layer index is weighted and summed to obtain the efficiency of the upper-layer index by using the established evaluation index system. In such a way, only the effect value of the bottom layer index is the actual effect value, the effect values of the indexes of the other upper layers are theoretical fitting values, and the accuracy in actual combat needs to be tested. In addition, the uncertainty and the emerging performance of weaponry to the system combat effectiveness in the system battlefield situation are difficult to realize by the calculation method.
The system contribution degree calculation method based on the battle scene simulation is not mature at present, because the soul of the whole battle system is the command control system, and the flexible command control effect is difficult to model in the battle scene simulation system. Therefore, the simulation of the battle scene is usually used to calculate the battle effectiveness of some specific weaponry, and further research is needed for the calculation of the contribution degree of the complex system.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for calculating the contribution of a weapon equipment system, which is based on a discrete event simulation method, combines weapon equipment and a combat event efficiency calculation method, avoids the integral fitting of the system combat efficiency, and can well reflect the uncertainty and the occurrence of the contribution of the weapon equipment to the system.
The invention aims to solve the technical problem of providing a weapon equipment system contribution calculation method based on discrete event simulation, and better embodying the process of system combat, and the emergence and uncertainty of the weapon equipment on the promotion of a combat system. The system contribution degree of the obtained weapon equipment is more reasonable.
In order to achieve the above purpose, the technical scheme of the invention is as follows: a method for calculating contribution of a weapon equipment system based on discrete event simulation comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: giving out a fighting scenario according to a fighting background, and determining the range of a fighting system;
step two: establishing a combat activity model and a combat event tracking model based on a national defense department architecture framework, designing a logical relation, a rule and a victory or defeat condition of the development of a combat process after the combat process and the combat flow are determined, and establishing a discrete event simulation model of the combat process in discrete event simulation software;
step three: performing efficiency calculation on each combat event node in the discrete event simulation model to obtain an efficiency interval of completing each combat event node by weaponry; the efficiency calculation method comprises an application equipment efficiency calculation model, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method or a simulation analysis method;
step four: in the effectiveness interval obtained in the third step, the obtained effectiveness value is set as the probability value of each combat event node successfully carried out in the discrete event simulation model in the combat process by a random number method, and multiple times of simulation are carried out to obtain the final successful probability of system combat;
step five: adding weaponry or improving the performance of the weaponry, repeating the third step and the fourth step, analyzing the victory rate improvement of the system combat after adding the weaponry or improving the performance of the weaponry, and obtaining the system contribution degree of the weaponry.
Further, the step 1 specifically includes:
first, a certain scenario of the weaponry is given, and the scope of the combat regime in the scenario, including equipment configuration and deployment, and the tasks and functions of the various nodes, is determined.
Further, the step 2 of establishing the discrete event simulation model of the combat process specifically includes:
the combat process is a flow chart which is constructed by connecting each combat activity according to the time sequence and the logical relationship in the combat, a combat activity model and a combat event tracking model of the system combat are established based on a national defense department system structure framework, the specific flow and the time sequence relationship of the combat activity are combed out, the development logic of each combat event in the combat process is designed, namely whether each combat event is completed or not can result in what kind of result of the whole combat process, and then a simulation model of the combat process is constructed in discrete event simulation software.
Further, the step 3 of calculating the efficiency interval of the combat event node in the simulation model specifically includes:
in the discrete event simulation model of the combat process, each combat event node needs to set parameters, namely, the probability that each node finishes the combat event is set, the meaning of the effect value of the combat event is the probability value that weaponry corresponding to the combat event finishes the combat event, and the performance calculation of the combat event in the simulation model comprises the following steps: if the weapon equipment corresponding to the combat event is unique, the effect value of the combat event is equal to the effect value of the corresponding weapon equipment; if not, the effectiveness value of the combat event requires fitting the effectiveness values of its corresponding weaponry:
the effectiveness value of the combat event node is calculated as an interval between [0,1] with the physical meaning of [ lowest effectiveness to complete the combat event, highest effectiveness to complete the combat event ].
Further, the types of the battle event nodes are divided into two categories:
the first type is the combat event of which the efficiency is directly described by using the probability, the probability under the condition of normal interference is taken as the lowest efficiency for completing the combat event by establishing a mathematical model for calculating the efficiency or adopting a simulation method, and the probability under the condition of ideal no interference is taken as the highest efficiency for completing the combat event;
the second category is to use the qualitatively described combat event to calculate its efficiency by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, expert scoring or other methods for processing qualitative indicators.
Further, the discrete event simulation in the battle process in the step 4 specifically includes:
in a discrete event simulation model in the fighting process, the probability of completing each fighting event is set as a random number in the efficiency interval of the fighting event node, and the probability of winning the system during fighting is obtained through multiple times of simulation.
Further, the step 5 of calculating the systematic contribution of the weaponry specifically includes:
when weaponry is added, a combat event of newly added equipment needs to be added into a discrete event simulation model in the combat process to form a new combat event node, and at the moment, the efficiency interval of the combat event node, of which the combat efficiency is directly or indirectly influenced by the weaponry, in the node and the whole model needs to be recalculated;
if the specific performance of a certain weapon equipment is only improved, a new combat event node is not needed to be added, and the efficiency interval of the combat event node, including the combat event node, of which the combat efficiency is directly or indirectly influenced by the weapon equipment is directly recalculated.
Further comprising:
after recalculating the effectiveness interval of the combat event node in the simulation model, carrying out multiple times of simulation again to obtain the probability of winning the combat of a new system, and then expressing the system contribution degree of newly added or improved weaponry as follows:
wherein C is the systematic contribution of certain type of weaponry, P1For odds of systematic combat without increase or improvement, P2To increase or improve the odds of the system after the equipment is installed.
Has the advantages that:
(1) the invention adopts a discrete event simulation mode in the fighting process, firstly carries out efficiency interval calculation on fighting event nodes, and then carries out simulation calculation by utilizing the efficiency interval to obtain the improvement of increasing or improving the system fighting rate of the weaponry, thereby analyzing and calculating the system contribution degree of the weaponry.
(2) The result of the efficiency calculation of the combat event node is an interval value, which represents the lowest and highest efficiency values of the corresponding weaponry for completing the combat event. During simulation analysis, the probability of the combat event node completing the activity is a random number within its performance interval.
(3) When the weaponry is newly added or improved, the efficiency interval of the combat event node, the combat efficiency of which is directly or indirectly influenced by the weaponry, needs to be recalculated.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method of the present invention;
fig. 2 is a model for tracking combat events of the air defense back guidance system.
Detailed Description
The technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be described clearly and completely with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention, and it is obvious that the described embodiments are only a part of the embodiments of the present invention, rather than all embodiments, and all other embodiments obtained by a person skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the present invention belong to the protection scope of the present invention without creative efforts.
According to an embodiment of the present invention, as shown in fig. 1, a method for calculating contribution of a weaponry system based on discrete event simulation is provided, which specifically includes the following steps:
step 1, giving out the battle scenario and determining the system range
To calculate the system contribution of the weaponry, it is first necessary to give a certain scenario of the weaponry and to determine the scope of the tactical system in the scenario, including equipment configuration and deployment, tasks and functions of the various nodes.
Step 2, establishing a discrete event simulation model of the combat process
The battle process is a flow chart which is constructed by connecting all the battle activities according to the time sequence and the logical relationship in the battle. To understand the clear combat process, a method via the Defense architecture Framework (DoDAF) is required. Based on the national defense department architecture framework (DoDAF for short English, which refers to the architecture framework of the American national defense department)
The method establishes a combat activity model and a combat event tracking model for system combat, and can comb out the specific flow and time sequence relation of combat activity. Taking the air defense counterguidance battle in the defense area of our party as an example, a simplified battle event tracking model established based on the architecture framework of the department of defense is shown in fig. 2. Based on the above, the development logic of each combat event in the combat process is designed, namely whether each combat event is completed or not results in what kind of results occur in the whole combat process. If the early warning satellite, the early warning machine and the ground-based precision radar do not find the invaded missile, the subsequent events of the whole air defense anti-pilot operation cannot be carried out, and the operation fails. After the relations and the rules are clearly combed, a simulation model of the fighting process can be built in the discrete event simulation software.
Step 3, calculating the efficiency interval of the combat event node in the simulation model
In the discrete event simulation model of the combat process, each combat event node needs to set parameters, namely, the probability of each node completing the combat event is set. The meaning of the effectiveness value of the combat event is the probability value of the weapon equipment corresponding to the combat event completing the combat event, so that the effectiveness calculation needs to be carried out on the combat event in the simulation model. If the weapon equipment corresponding to the combat event is unique, the effect value of the combat event is equal to the effect value of the corresponding weapon equipment; if not, the effectiveness values of the combat events need to be fitted to the effectiveness values of their corresponding weaponry, a weighted sum method may be employed, and so on.
In order to reflect the uncertainty of the contribution degree of the weapons and equipment to the system in the actual combat process, the effectiveness value of the combat event node is calculated as an interval between [0,1], and the physical meaning of the interval is [ the lowest effectiveness for completing the combat event, and the highest effectiveness for completing the combat event ].
The types of combat event nodes are divided into two categories.
The first category is combat events such as searching for discovered targets, identifying targets, hitting targets, etc. that can be used to directly describe their performance in terms of probability. By establishing a mathematical model for calculating the effectiveness of the battle event or adopting a simulation method, the probability under the condition of common interference is taken as the lowest effectiveness for completing the battle event, and the probability under the condition of ideal no interference is taken as the highest effectiveness for completing the battle event.
The second category is qualitatively described combat events such as command control, intelligence integration, etc. The calculation of the performance needs to be performed by a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, an expert scoring method or other methods for processing qualitative indexes. Taking the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method as an example, when giving a comment on the performance of completing a certain combat event, the comment on the completion of the ideal performance and the worst possible performance of the combat event is directly given, and then a performance interval is finally obtained. If an expert scoring method is used, an effective scoring interval is directly given.
Step 4, discrete event simulation of the combat process is carried out
In the discrete event simulation model of the combat process, the probability of completing each combat event is set as a random number in the efficiency interval of the combat event node. And (4) obtaining the probability of winning the system battle through multiple times of simulation.
Step 5, calculating the system contribution degree of the weapon equipment
When weapon equipment is added, the combat event of the newly added equipment needs to be added into a discrete event simulation model in the combat process to become a new combat event node. At this point, the performance interval of the node and the operational event node in the entire model, where the operational performance is directly or indirectly affected by the weapons, needs to be recalculated. If the specific performance of a certain weapon equipment is only improved, a new combat event node is not needed to be added, and the efficiency interval of the combat event node, including the combat event node, of which the combat efficiency is directly or indirectly influenced by the weapon equipment is directly recalculated.
The process of recalculating the efficiency interval of the combat event node in the model represents the increase of weaponry or the improvement of performance and the emerging of the contribution degree of the whole combat system.
And after recalculating the effectiveness interval of the combat event node in the simulation model, carrying out simulation for multiple times again to obtain the probability of the new system combat victory. The systematic contribution of the new or improved weaponry may be expressed as
Wherein C is the systematic contribution of certain type of weaponry, P1For odds of systematic combat without increase or improvement, P2To increase or improve the odds of the system after the equipment is installed.
Although illustrative embodiments of the present invention have been described above to facilitate the understanding of the present invention by those skilled in the art, it should be understood that the present invention is not limited to the scope of the embodiments, but various changes may be apparent to those skilled in the art, and it is intended that all inventive concepts utilizing the inventive concepts set forth herein be protected without departing from the spirit and scope of the present invention as defined and limited by the appended claims.
Claims (8)
1. A method for calculating contribution of a weapon equipment system based on discrete event simulation is characterized by comprising the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: giving out a fighting scenario according to a fighting background, and determining the range of a fighting system;
step two: establishing a combat activity model and a combat event tracking model based on a national defense department architecture framework, designing a logical relation, a rule and a victory or defeat condition of the development of a combat process after the combat process and the combat flow are determined, and establishing a discrete event simulation model of the combat process in discrete event simulation software;
step three: performing efficiency calculation on each combat event node in the discrete event simulation model to obtain an efficiency interval of completing each combat event node by weaponry; the efficiency calculation method comprises an application equipment efficiency calculation model, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method or a simulation analysis method;
step four: in the effectiveness interval obtained in the third step, the obtained effectiveness value is set as the probability value of each combat event node successfully carried out in the discrete event simulation model in the combat process by a random number method, and multiple times of simulation are carried out to obtain the final successful probability of system combat;
step five: adding weaponry or improving the performance of the weaponry, repeating the third step and the fourth step, analyzing the victory rate improvement of the system combat after adding the weaponry or improving the performance of the weaponry, and obtaining the system contribution degree of the weaponry.
2. The method for calculating the contribution of the weaponry system based on discrete event simulation of claim 1, wherein step 1 specifically comprises:
first, a certain scenario of the weaponry is given, and the scope of the combat regime in the scenario, including equipment configuration and deployment, and the tasks and functions of the various nodes, is determined.
3. The method for calculating the contribution of the weaponry system based on discrete event simulation of claim 1, wherein the step 2 of establishing a discrete event simulation model of the combat process specifically comprises:
the combat process is a flow chart which is constructed by connecting each combat activity according to the time sequence and the logical relationship in the combat, a combat activity model and a combat event tracking model of the system combat are established based on a national defense department system structure framework, the specific flow and the time sequence relationship of the combat activity are combed out, the development logic of each combat event in the combat process is designed, namely whether each combat event is completed or not can result in what kind of result of the whole combat process, and then a simulation model of the combat process is constructed in discrete event simulation software.
4. The method for calculating the contribution of the weaponry system based on discrete event simulation of claim 1, wherein the step 3 of calculating the performance interval of the combat event node in the simulation model specifically comprises:
in the discrete event simulation model of the combat process, each combat event node needs to set parameters, namely, the probability that each node finishes the combat event is set, the meaning of the effect value of the combat event is the probability value that weaponry corresponding to the combat event finishes the combat event, and the performance calculation of the combat event in the simulation model comprises the following steps: if the weapon equipment corresponding to the combat event is unique, the effect value of the combat event is equal to the effect value of the corresponding weapon equipment; if not, the effectiveness value of the combat event requires fitting the effectiveness values of its corresponding weaponry:
the effectiveness value of the combat event node is calculated as an interval between [0,1] with the physical meaning of [ lowest effectiveness to complete the combat event, highest effectiveness to complete the combat event ].
5. The method for calculating contribution of weaponry systems based on discrete event simulation of claim 4,
the types of combat event nodes are divided into two categories:
the first type is the combat event of which the efficiency is directly described by using the probability, the probability under the condition of normal interference is taken as the lowest efficiency for completing the combat event by establishing a mathematical model for calculating the efficiency or adopting a simulation method, and the probability under the condition of ideal no interference is taken as the highest efficiency for completing the combat event;
the second category is to use the qualitatively described combat event to calculate its efficiency by fuzzy comprehensive evaluation, expert scoring or other methods for processing qualitative indicators.
6. The method for calculating contribution of weaponry systems based on discrete event simulation of claim 4, wherein the discrete event simulation of the combat process in step 4 specifically includes:
in a discrete event simulation model in the fighting process, the probability of completing each fighting event is set as a random number in the efficiency interval of the fighting event node, and the probability of winning the system during fighting is obtained through multiple times of simulation.
7. The method for calculating the weapon equipment system contribution degree based on the discrete event simulation of claim 1, wherein the step 5 of calculating the system contribution degree of the weapon equipment specifically comprises:
when weaponry is added, a combat event of newly added equipment needs to be added into a discrete event simulation model in the combat process to form a new combat event node, and at the moment, the efficiency interval of the combat event node, of which the combat efficiency is directly or indirectly influenced by the weaponry, in the node and the whole model needs to be recalculated;
if the specific performance of a certain weapon equipment is only improved, a new combat event node is not needed to be added, and the efficiency interval of the combat event node, including the combat event node, of which the combat efficiency is directly or indirectly influenced by the weapon equipment is directly recalculated.
8. The method of calculating the contribution of a weaponry system based on discrete event simulation of claim 7, further comprising:
after recalculating the effectiveness interval of the combat event node in the simulation model, carrying out multiple times of simulation again to obtain the probability of winning the combat of a new system, and expressing the system contribution degree of the newly added or improved weapons as the following formula
Wherein C is the systematic contribution of certain type of weaponry, P1For odds of systematic combat without increase or improvement, P2To increase or improve the odds of the system after the equipment is installed.
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Cited By (3)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN113255118A (en) * | 2021-05-11 | 2021-08-13 | 上海机电工程研究所 | Weapon equipment system optimization method and system based on killer chain |
| CN113313436A (en) * | 2021-07-29 | 2021-08-27 | 中国人民解放军空军预警学院 | Early warning machine cooperative deployment method based on Doppler blind area map |
| CN113408137A (en) * | 2021-06-29 | 2021-09-17 | 中国舰船研究设计中心 | System combat effectiveness analysis method based on task completion degree and loss ratio |
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2020
- 2020-11-10 CN CN202011247111.4A patent/CN112380686A/en active Pending
Cited By (6)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN113255118A (en) * | 2021-05-11 | 2021-08-13 | 上海机电工程研究所 | Weapon equipment system optimization method and system based on killer chain |
| CN113255118B (en) * | 2021-05-11 | 2023-05-30 | 上海机电工程研究所 | Weaponry system optimization method and system based on killing chain |
| CN113408137A (en) * | 2021-06-29 | 2021-09-17 | 中国舰船研究设计中心 | System combat effectiveness analysis method based on task completion degree and loss ratio |
| CN113408137B (en) * | 2021-06-29 | 2022-06-10 | 中国舰船研究设计中心 | System combat effectiveness analysis method based on task completion degree and loss ratio |
| CN113313436A (en) * | 2021-07-29 | 2021-08-27 | 中国人民解放军空军预警学院 | Early warning machine cooperative deployment method based on Doppler blind area map |
| CN113313436B (en) * | 2021-07-29 | 2021-11-19 | 中国人民解放军空军预警学院 | Early warning machine cooperative deployment method based on Doppler blind area map |
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