CN112365085B - Uninterrupted operation cost demand prediction method based on reliability target - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a method for predicting the demand of uninterrupted operation cost based on a reliability target, which comprises the following steps of S1, calculating the number of time units for pre-arranging power failure in a reference year, and predicting the number of time units for pre-arranging power failure in a planning year; step S2, calculating average prearranged power failure time of the user and the duty ratio of the number of users when the user prearranges the power failure; step S3, counting the operation times corresponding to each engineering category of uninterrupted operation, and further calculating the operation probability of each engineering category of uninterrupted operation; step S4, calculating a typical value of the time and the number of the users saved in the single uninterrupted operation, and calculating the total number of uninterrupted operations required; step S5, calculating a typical value of uninterrupted operation cost corresponding to a single engineering class, and calculating the operation times required by each engineering class; and S6, taking the sum of the uninterrupted operation cost requirements of all engineering categories as the uninterrupted operation cost requirement. The invention predicts the demand of the uninterrupted power supply cost in the planning year and provides support for carrying out uninterrupted power supply operation in the planning year.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power system automation, in particular to a method for predicting the demand of uninterrupted operation cost based on a reliability target.
Background
In recent years, with the rapid development of national economy, urban electricity load is rapidly increased, and the position of power supply reliability in production management and customer service work is also becoming more important. The power supply reliability is one of the most important indexes reflecting the power supply capacity and the power supply quality of the power system, and is the comprehensive embodiment of the power system in aspects of planning, design, production, operation and maintenance, power supply service and the like.
Various uninterrupted power technologies such as live working, bypass working, loop closing and rotating power supply, emergency power generation vehicle and the like are commonly adopted in developed countries or regions at home and abroad to reduce the power failure time of users. The uninterrupted operation is the most direct and effective measure for improving the power supply reliability at present, so that the uninterrupted operation not only reduces the power failure time of users and greatly improves the labor efficiency, but also improves the service efficiency and quality, establishes good enterprise images, promotes the progress of maintenance modes, and better ensures the safety of a power grid.
At present, researches on uninterrupted operation technology are mainly focused on uninterrupted operation technology or on-site uninterrupted operation networking strategy, and cost problems are basically not considered. Under the condition of definite power supply reliability targets, the target power supply reliability is achieved mainly according to optimized grid type parameter indexes, operation and maintenance type number indexes and distribution automation type parameter indexes, and the requirements of uninterrupted operation cost are lacked although the operability is strong.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a reliability-target-based uninterrupted operation cost demand prediction method which is used for predicting uninterrupted operation cost demand in planning years and providing data support for carrying out uninterrupted operation in planning years.
In one aspect of the present invention, there is provided a method for predicting the cost of uninterrupted operation based on reliability objectives, comprising the steps of:
step S1, obtaining power outage event data of a reference year and uninterrupted operation event data of the reference year, and calculating the number of scheduled power outage time units of the reference year and the number of scheduled power outage time units of a planning year according to the power outage event data and the uninterrupted operation event data;
step S2, calculating average scheduled power failure time of users according to the predicted value of the number of users and the total number of users in scheduled power failure of a planning year; calculating the duty ratio of the number of users when the users pre-arrange power failure according to the power failure event data; wherein, the average prearranged power-off time of the user is the average prearranged power-off time of the user under the condition of not considering uninterrupted operation;
step S3, counting the operation times corresponding to each engineering category of uninterrupted operation according to the uninterrupted operation event data, and calculating the operation probability of each engineering category of uninterrupted operation;
step S4, calculating the average value of the corresponding time-saving user numbers of each engineering class of uninterrupted operation according to the uninterrupted operation event data; calculating a typical value of the time-saving number of users of the single uninterrupted operation according to the average value of the time-saving number of users of each engineering class and the operation probability of each engineering class; calculating the total number of uninterrupted operations required according to the average prearranged outage time of the users, the planned annual reliability target, the total number of users and typical values of the single uninterrupted operation time-saving number of users; the planning year reliability target is a planning year user average power failure time target value;
step S5, calculating the required operation times of each engineering category according to the required total times of uninterrupted operation and the operation probability of each engineering category of uninterrupted operation; calculating typical values of the single uninterrupted operation cost of each engineering category according to the cost conditions corresponding to each engineering category in the uninterrupted operation event data;
step S6, calculating the uninterrupted operation cost requirement of each engineering category according to the operation times required by each engineering category and the uninterrupted operation cost typical value of each engineering category; and the sum of the uninterrupted operation cost requirements of all engineering categories is used as the uninterrupted operation total cost requirement.
Preferably, the step S1 includes: acquiring operation event data in the power failure event data, starting from the 1 st prearranged power failure event, accumulating the power failure time account number in each prearranged power failure event, taking the accumulated total number as the power failure time account number of the prearranged power failure event in the operation event, and accumulating according to the following formula:
wherein NH is r The number of power outage time units of a power outage event is prearranged in the operation event; n is the number of events of the prearranged power failure event in the operation event; n is n i The number of users affected by the power failure event is prearranged for the ith pre-arranged user; h is a i The power failure duration of the power failure event is prearranged for the ith power failure time;
the method comprises the steps of obtaining uninterrupted power operation events of a reference year in uninterrupted power operation event data, accumulating the time and the number of the time saved by each prearranged event from a 1 st prearranged event, and accumulating the total number of the rewards as the time and the number of the time saved by the prearranged event according to the following formula:
wherein NH is u The time and the number of the users saved for the prearranged event in the uninterrupted operation event; m is the event number of the prearranged event in the uninterrupted operation event; u (u) i The number of users affected by the power failure event is prearranged for the ith pre-arranged user; x is x i The power outage duration of the power outage event is scheduled for the ith.
And taking the addition result of the number of power outage users of the prearranged power outage event and the number of time saving users of the prearranged event in the operation event process as the number of prearranged power outage users in the reference year.
Preferably, the method comprises the steps of,
the step S1 further includes:
the number of annual power outage planning events of the planning year and the number of annual power outage planning events of the reference year are obtained, and an adjustment coefficient k of the number of power outage time units of the planning year is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein Np is the number of annual blackout planning events for the planning year; nb is the number of annual blackout planning events for a planning year;
and multiplying the adjustment coefficient of the number of the users in the power outage of the planning year by the number of the users in the power outage of the pre-arrangement as a predicted value of the number of the users in the power outage of the planning year.
Preferably, the step S2 includes: obtaining a predicted value of the number of users and the total number of users in the scheduled power outage of the year, and calculating average scheduled power outage time of the users under the condition of not considering uninterrupted operation according to the following formula:
wherein SAIDip-S is the average prearranged outage time of users under the condition of not considering uninterrupted operation; us is the number of households;
acquiring an operation event of a reference year, and calculating the duty ratio of the number of users when the users pre-schedule power failure according to the following formula:
wherein SAIDI-S is the average prearranged power failure time of a user under the condition of not considering uninterrupted operation; us is the number of households;
the average power outage time for the user without taking into account the uninterrupted operation is calculated according to the following formula:
the SAIDIp is an average power outage time of the user without considering the power outage operation.
Preferably, the step S3 includes: obtaining engineering class data, counting the uninterrupted operation times of each engineering class in the reference year, and calculating the uninterrupted operation probability of each engineering class according to the following formula:
wherein P is TP The probability of uninterrupted operation of TP engineering is given; n (N) TP The operation times of TP engineering are the operation times; nc is the total number of uninterrupted operations.
Preferably, the step S4 includes: obtaining the number of time-saving households for each uninterrupted operation in the uninterrupted operation event of the reference year, and calculating a typical value of the number of time-saving households for the single uninterrupted operation according to the following formula:
wherein NH is ty A typical value of the number of time-saving households for single-phase uninterrupted operation; n (N) TP The operation times of TP engineering in the event of uninterrupted operation in the reference year are used; u (u) TP，i The number of users who avoid power failure for the ith TP class project in the reference year uninterrupted operation event; h is a TP，i The operation duration of the ith TP project in the reference year uninterrupted operation event is the operation duration of the ith TP project;
obtaining a user average power failure time target value of a planning year, and calculating the total number of uninterrupted operations required by completing engineering category of the planning year according to the following formula:
wherein NU is the total number of uninterrupted operations required by planning years; SAIDI is a planned annual user average outage time target value; us is the number of households; SAIDIp is an average pre-schedule outage time for the user.
Preferably, the step S5 includes: and calculating the number of times of uninterrupted operation required to be completed for planning each engineering class in the year according to the following formula:
NU TP ＝NU×P TP
wherein NU TP The number of uninterrupted operations needed to be completed for planning the annual TP engineering; u is the total number of uninterrupted operations required by planning years; p (P) TP The probability of uninterrupted operation of TP engineering is provided.
Preferably, the step S5 further includes: obtaining the cost condition of each engineering class in the standard year uninterrupted operation event, and calculating the uninterrupted operation cost typical value corresponding to the single engineering class according to the following formula:
wherein F is TP A single uninterrupted operation cost typical value for TP engineering; f (f) TP，i The operation cost of the ith TP class project in the reference year uninterrupted operation event is used as the operation cost; n (N) TP The operation times of TP engineering are the operation times.
Preferably, the step S6 includes: calculating the uninterrupted operation cost requirements of each engineering category according to the following formula:
FE TP ＝F TP ×NU TP
wherein FE is Tp The method is used for planning the uninterrupted operation cost requirement of the annual TP engineering; NU (NU) TP The number of uninterrupted operations needed to be completed for planning the annual TP engineering; f (F) TP The method is a typical value of single uninterrupted operation cost for TP engineering.
Preferably, the step S6 further includes: calculating the total demand of the uninterrupted operation cost in the planning year:
wherein, FE is the total requirement of the operation cost of planning year without power failure; FE (FE) TP The method is used for planning the uninterrupted operation cost requirement of the annual TP engineering.
In summary, the embodiment of the invention has the following beneficial effects:
according to the uninterruptible operation cost demand prediction method based on the reliability target, provided by the invention, on the basis of predicting the number of the power-off time of the planning year, the predicted value of the number of the power-off time of the planning year is obtained by constructing the adjustment coefficient, and the planning year power supply reliability target is combined to obtain the number of the power-off time of the planning year, which is needed to be saved through uninterruptible operation. And combining the occurrence probability of the uninterrupted operation of each engineering category to obtain the typical time-saving user number and operation cost of single uninterrupted operation, obtain the uninterrupted operation times of the planning year, and further determine the uninterrupted operation cost requirement of the planning year. The method can be used for predicting the demand of the uninterrupted power supply cost of the planning year by combining the reliability target, the number of power-off time units of the prearranged event in the operation event, the number of power-off time units saved by the prearranged event in the uninterrupted power supply operation and other parameters, and providing fund support for developing uninterrupted power supply operation in the planning year.
Drawings
In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the invention or the technical solutions of the prior art, the drawings which are required in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly described, it being obvious that the drawings in the description below are only some embodiments of the invention, and that it is within the scope of the invention to one skilled in the art to obtain other drawings from these drawings without inventive faculty.
Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a method for predicting the demand of uninterrupted operation cost based on a reliability goal in an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings, for the purpose of making the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent.
Referring to fig. 1, a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a method for predicting a demand for uninterrupted operation based on a reliability objective is provided in the present invention. In this embodiment, the method comprises the steps of:
step S1, obtaining power outage event data of a reference year and uninterrupted operation event data of the reference year, and calculating the number of scheduled power outage time units of the reference year and the number of scheduled power outage time units of a planning year according to the power outage event data and the uninterrupted operation event data; it can be understood that the number of the users when the power failure is scheduled in the years of the reference year is calculated according to the power failure event of the reference year and the power failure-free operation event; the time-saving number of users refers to the number of users in power failure avoided by using the uninterrupted operation means, and is the product of the number of users and the operation duration. Calculating the adjustment coefficient of the number of the households when the power is cut off in the planning year according to the annual power cut plan in the planning year and the annual power cut plan in the reference year; the number of the power outage and the adjustment coefficient are obtained from the annual prearranged power outage according to the reference year.
In a specific embodiment, operation event data in the power outage event data is obtained, from the 1 st prearranged power outage event, the number of power outage time units in each prearranged power outage event is accumulated, the accumulated total number is taken as the power outage time units of the prearranged power outage event in the operation event, and the accumulation is specifically carried out according to the following formula:
wherein NH is r The number of power outage time units of a power outage event is prearranged in the operation event; n is the number of events of the prearranged power failure event in the operation event; n is n i The number of users affected by the power failure event is prearranged for the ith pre-arranged user; h is a i The power failure duration of the power failure event is prearranged for the ith power failure time;
the method comprises the steps of obtaining uninterrupted power operation events of a reference year in uninterrupted power operation event data, accumulating the time and the number of the time saved by each prearranged event from a 1 st prearranged event, and accumulating the total number of the rewards as the time and the number of the time saved by the prearranged event according to the following formula:
wherein NH is u Time saving for prearranged event in uninterrupted operation eventA number of households; m is the event number of the prearranged event in the uninterrupted operation event; u (u) i The number of users affected by the power failure event is prearranged for the ith pre-arranged user; x is x i The power outage duration of the power outage event is scheduled for the ith.
And taking the addition result of the number of power outage users of the prearranged power outage event and the number of time saving users of the prearranged event in the operation event process as the number of prearranged power outage users in the reference year.
More specifically, the number of annual power outage schedule events in the planned year and the number of annual power outage schedule events in the reference year are obtained, and the adjustment coefficient k of the number of users at the time of power outage in the planned year is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein Np is the number of annual blackout planning events for the planning year; nb is the number of annual blackout planning events for a planning year;
and multiplying the adjustment coefficient of the number of the users in the power outage of the planning year by the number of the users in the power outage of the pre-arrangement as a predicted value of the number of the users in the power outage of the planning year.
Step S2, calculating average scheduled power failure time of users according to the predicted value of the number of users and the total number of users in scheduled power failure of a planning year; calculating the duty ratio of the number of users when the users pre-arrange power failure according to the power failure event data; wherein, the average prearranged power-off time of the user is the average prearranged power-off time of the user under the condition of not considering uninterrupted operation; it can be understood that the average prearranged power outage time of the users under the condition of not considering uninterrupted operation is calculated according to the forecast value of the number of users and the total number of users when the power outage is prearranged in the planning year; calculating the duty ratio of the number of users when the users pre-arrange power failure according to the operation event; further, the average power outage time of the user under the condition of not considering the uninterrupted operation is calculated.
In a specific embodiment, a predicted value of the number of users and a total number of users in the scheduled power outage of a planning year are obtained, and an average scheduled power outage time of the users without considering the power outage operation is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein SAIDip-S is the average prearranged outage time of users under the condition of not considering uninterrupted operation; us is the number of households;
acquiring an operation event of a reference year, and calculating the duty ratio of the number of users when the users pre-schedule power failure according to the following formula:
wherein SAIDI-S is the average prearranged power failure time of a user under the condition of not considering uninterrupted operation; us is the number of households;
the average power outage time for the user without taking into account the uninterrupted operation is calculated according to the following formula:
the SAIDIp is an average power outage time of the user without considering the power outage operation.
Step S3, counting the operation times corresponding to each engineering category of uninterrupted operation according to the uninterrupted operation event data, and calculating the operation probability of each engineering category of uninterrupted operation; it can be understood that the number of uninterruptible operations of each engineering class (capital construction engineering, other engineering, rush repair, municipal improvement, defect elimination, repair engineering, industrial expansion engineering) in the reference year is counted, and the uninterruptible operation probability of each engineering class is calculated.
In a specific embodiment, engineering class data is obtained, the number of uninterruptible operations of each engineering class in a reference year is counted, and the probability of uninterruptible operations of each engineering class is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein P is TP The probability of uninterrupted operation of TP engineering is given; n (N) TP The operation times of TP engineering are the operation times; n (N) c The total number of times of uninterrupted operation is obtained.
Step S4, calculating the average value of the corresponding time-saving user numbers of each engineering class of uninterrupted operation according to the uninterrupted operation event data; calculating a typical value of the time-saving number of users of the single uninterrupted operation according to the average value of the time-saving number of users of each engineering class and the operation probability of each engineering class; calculating the total number of uninterrupted operations required according to the average prearranged outage time of the users, the planned annual reliability target, the total number of users and typical values of the single uninterrupted operation time-saving number of users; the planning year reliability target is a planning year user average power failure time target value; it can be understood that according to the situation of the time-saving household number of each uninterrupted operation in the uninterrupted operation event of the reference year, the typical value of the time-saving household number of the single uninterrupted operation is calculated, specifically, the uninterrupted operation event of the reference year is respectively calculated as the average value of the time-saving household numbers of each class according to different engineering classes; and carrying out weighted summation on the average value of the time-saving number of users of each engineering class in the reference year and the uninterrupted power operation probability of the corresponding engineering class to obtain a typical value of the time-saving number of users of single uninterrupted power operation. And calculating the total number of uninterrupted operations required by the planning year according to the planning year reliability target (the planning year user average outage time target value).
In a specific embodiment, the number of time-saving units of each uninterruptible operation in the uninterruptible operation event of the reference year is obtained, and a typical value of the number of time-saving units of the single uninterruptible operation is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein NH is ty A typical value of the number of time-saving households for single-phase uninterrupted operation; n (N) TP The operation times of TP engineering in the event of uninterrupted operation in the reference year are used; u (u) TP，i The number of users who avoid power failure for the ith TP class project in the reference year uninterrupted operation event; h is a TP，i Is based onThe operation duration of the ith TP class project in the quasi-year uninterrupted operation event;
obtaining a user average power failure time target value of a planning year, and calculating the total number of uninterrupted operations required by completing engineering category of the planning year according to the following formula:
wherein NU is the total number of uninterrupted operations required by planning years; SAIDI is a planned annual user average outage time target value; us is the number of households; SAIDIp is an average pre-schedule outage time for the user.
Step S5, calculating the required operation times of each engineering category according to the required total times of uninterrupted operation and the operation probability of each engineering category of uninterrupted operation; calculating typical values of the single uninterrupted operation cost of each engineering category according to the cost conditions corresponding to each engineering category in the uninterrupted operation event data; it can be understood that the number of times of uninterrupted power operation required to be completed for each engineering class in the planning year is calculated according to the uninterrupted power operation probability of the engineering class and the total number of times of uninterrupted power operation required for the planning year. And calculating a single uninterrupted power operation cost typical value according to various cost conditions in the uninterrupted power operation event of the reference year.
In a specific embodiment, the number of uninterruptible operations to be completed for planning each engineering class in the year is calculated according to the following formula:
NU TP ＝NU×P TP
wherein NU TP The number of uninterrupted operations needed to be completed for planning the annual TP engineering; u is the total number of uninterrupted operations required by planning years; p (P) TP The probability of uninterrupted operation of TP engineering is provided.
And then, specifically, acquiring the cost condition of each engineering class in the standard year uninterrupted operation event, and calculating an uninterrupted operation cost typical value corresponding to a single engineering class according to the following formula:
wherein F is TP A single uninterrupted operation cost typical value for TP engineering; f (f) TP，i The operation cost of the ith TP class project in the reference year uninterrupted operation event is used as the operation cost; n (N) TP The operation times of TP engineering are the operation times.
Step S6, calculating the uninterrupted operation cost requirement of each engineering category according to the operation times required by each engineering category and the uninterrupted operation cost typical value of each engineering category; and the sum of the uninterrupted operation cost requirements of all engineering categories is used as the uninterrupted operation total cost requirement. It can be appreciated that, according to the above steps, the planned uninterrupted operating cost requirement is calculated: specifically, the uninterrupted operation cost requirement of a certain engineering class is the multiplied result of the uninterrupted operation times of the engineering class and the single uninterrupted operation cost typical value of the engineering class in the planning year; finally, the sum of the uninterrupted operation cost requirements of each engineering class is taken as the uninterrupted operation cost requirement.
In a specific embodiment, the uninterrupted operating cost requirements for each engineering class are calculated according to the following formula:
FE TP ＝F TP ×NU TP
wherein FE is TP The method is used for planning the uninterrupted operation cost requirement of the annual TP engineering; NU (NU) TP The number of uninterrupted operations needed to be completed for planning the annual TP engineering; f (F) TP The method is a typical value of single uninterrupted operation cost for TP engineering.
And then specifically, calculating the total demand of the uninterrupted operation cost in the planning year:
wherein, FE is the total requirement of the operation cost of planning year without power failure; FE (FE) TP The method is used for planning the uninterrupted operation cost requirement of the annual TP engineering.
In summary, the embodiment of the invention has the following beneficial effects:
according to the uninterruptible operation cost demand prediction method based on the reliability target, provided by the invention, on the basis of predicting the number of the power-off time of the planning year, the predicted value of the number of the power-off time of the planning year is obtained by constructing the adjustment coefficient, and the planning year power supply reliability target is combined to obtain the number of the power-off time of the planning year, which is needed to be saved through uninterruptible operation. And combining the occurrence probability of the uninterrupted operation of each engineering category to obtain the typical time-saving user number and operation cost of single uninterrupted operation, obtain the uninterrupted operation times of the planning year, and further determine the uninterrupted operation cost requirement of the planning year. The method can be used for predicting the demand of the uninterrupted power supply cost of the planning year by combining the reliability target, the number of power-off time units of the prearranged event in the operation event, the number of power-off time units saved by the prearranged event in the uninterrupted power supply operation and other parameters, and providing fund support for developing uninterrupted power supply operation in the planning year.
The above disclosure is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it is needless to say that the scope of the invention is not limited thereto, and therefore, the equivalent changes according to the claims of the present invention still fall within the scope of the present invention.
Claims (1)
1. The uninterrupted operation cost demand prediction method based on the reliability target is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step S1, obtaining power outage event data of a reference year and uninterrupted operation event data of the reference year, and calculating the number of scheduled power outage time units of the reference year and the number of scheduled power outage time units of a planning year according to the power outage event data and the uninterrupted operation event data;
step S2, calculating average scheduled power failure time of users according to the predicted value of the number of users and the total number of users in scheduled power failure of a planning year; calculating the duty ratio of the number of users when the users pre-arrange power failure according to the power failure event data; wherein, the average prearranged power-off time of the user is the average prearranged power-off time of the user under the condition of not considering uninterrupted operation;
step S3, counting the operation times corresponding to each engineering category of uninterrupted operation according to the uninterrupted operation event data, and calculating the operation probability of each engineering category of uninterrupted operation;
step S4, calculating the average value of the corresponding time-saving user numbers of each engineering class of uninterrupted operation according to the uninterrupted operation event data; calculating a typical value of the time-saving number of users of the single uninterrupted operation according to the average value of the time-saving number of users of each engineering class and the operation probability of each engineering class; calculating the total number of uninterrupted operations required according to the average prearranged outage time of the users, the planned annual reliability target, the total number of users and typical values of the single uninterrupted operation time-saving number of users; the planning year reliability target is a planning year user average power failure time target value;
step S5, calculating the required operation times of each engineering category according to the required total times of uninterrupted operation and the operation probability of each engineering category of uninterrupted operation; calculating typical values of the single uninterrupted operation cost of each engineering category according to the cost conditions corresponding to each engineering category in the uninterrupted operation event data;
step S6, calculating the uninterrupted operation cost requirement of each engineering category according to the operation times required by each engineering category and the uninterrupted operation cost typical value of each engineering category; and the sum of the uninterrupted operation cost requirements of all engineering categories is used as the uninterrupted operation total cost requirement;
the step S1 includes:
acquiring operation event data in the power failure event data, starting from the 1 st prearranged power failure event, accumulating the power failure time account number in each prearranged power failure event, taking the accumulated total number as the power failure time account number of the prearranged power failure event in the operation event, and accumulating according to the following formula:
wherein NH is r The number of power outage time units of a power outage event is prearranged in the operation event; n is the number of events of the prearranged power failure event in the operation event; n is n i The number of users affected by the power failure event is prearranged for the ith pre-arranged user; h is a i For the ith prearranged power failure eventPower-off time length;
the method comprises the steps of obtaining uninterrupted power operation events of a reference year in uninterrupted power operation event data, accumulating the time and the number of the time saved by each prearranged event from a 1 st prearranged event, and accumulating the total number of the rewards as the time and the number of the time saved by the prearranged event according to the following formula:
wherein NH is u The time and the number of the users saved for the prearranged event in the uninterrupted operation event; m is the event number of the prearranged event in the uninterrupted operation event; u (u) i The number of users affected by the power failure event is prearranged for the ith pre-arranged user; x is x i The power failure duration of the power failure event is prearranged for the ith power failure time;
taking the addition result of the number of power outage users of the prearranged power outage event and the number of time users saved by the prearranged event in the operation event process as the number of prearranged power outage users in the reference year;
and obtaining the number of annual power outage planning events of the planning year and the number of annual power outage planning events of the reference year, and calculating an adjustment coefficient k of the number of users at the time of power outage of the planning year according to the following formula:
wherein Np is the number of annual blackout planning events for the planning year; nb is the number of annual blackout planning events for a planning year;
multiplying the adjustment coefficient of the number of the users in the power outage of the planning year by the number of the users in the power outage of the pre-arrangement as a predicted value of the number of the users in the power outage of the planning year;
the step S2 includes:
obtaining a predicted value of the number of users and the total number of users in the scheduled power outage of the year, and calculating average scheduled power outage time of the users under the condition of not considering uninterrupted operation according to the following formula:
wherein SAIDip-S is the average prearranged outage time of users under the condition of not considering uninterrupted operation; us is the number of households; NHp prearranging power outage time for the user;
acquiring an operation event of a reference year, and calculating the duty ratio of the number of users when the users pre-schedule power failure according to the following formula:
wherein ks is the duty ratio of the number of users when the users pre-arrange power failure; us is the number of households; NH is the number of prearranged outage users in the reference year;
the average power outage time for the user without taking into account the uninterrupted operation is calculated according to the following formula:
wherein SAIDIp is the average outage time of the user without considering the uninterrupted operation;
the step S3 includes:
obtaining engineering class data, counting the uninterrupted operation times of each engineering class in the reference year, and calculating the uninterrupted operation probability of each engineering class according to the following formula:
wherein P is TP The probability of uninterrupted operation of TP engineering is given; TP the operation times of TP engineering are the operation times; nc is the total number of uninterrupted operations;
the step S4 includes:
obtaining the number of time-saving households for each uninterrupted operation in the uninterrupted operation event of the reference year, and calculating a typical value of the number of time-saving households for the single uninterrupted operation according to the following formula:
wherein NH is ty A typical value of the number of time-saving households for single-phase uninterrupted operation; n (N) TP The operation times of TP engineering in the event of uninterrupted operation in the reference year are used; u (u) TP, The number of users who avoid power failure for the ith TP class project in the reference year uninterrupted operation event; h is a TP, The operation duration of the ith TP project in the reference year uninterrupted operation event is the operation duration of the ith TP project;
obtaining a user average power failure time target value of a planning year, and calculating the total number of uninterrupted operations required by completing engineering category of the planning year according to the following formula:
wherein NU is the total number of uninterrupted operations required by planning years; SAIDI is a planned annual user average outage time target value; us is the number of households; SAIDIp is an average pre-schedule blackout time for the user;
the step S5 includes:
and calculating the number of times of uninterrupted operation required to be completed for planning each engineering class in the year according to the following formula:
NU TP ＝U×P TP
wherein NU TP The number of uninterrupted operations needed to be completed for planning the annual TP engineering; u is the total number of uninterrupted operations required by planning years; p (P) TP The probability of uninterrupted operation of TP engineering is given;
and obtaining the cost condition of each engineering class in the standard year uninterrupted operation event, and calculating an uninterrupted operation cost typical value corresponding to a single engineering class according to the following formula:
wherein F is TP A single uninterrupted operation cost typical value for TP engineering; f (f) TP, The operation cost of the ith TP class project in the reference year uninterrupted operation event is used as the operation cost; n (N) TP The operation times of TP engineering are the operation times;
the step S6 includes:
calculating the uninterrupted operation cost requirements of each engineering category according to the following formula:
FE TP ＝ TP ×NU TP
wherein FE is TP The method is used for planning the uninterrupted operation cost requirement of the annual TP engineering; NU (NU) TP The number of uninterrupted operations needed to be completed for planning the annual TP engineering; f (F) TP A single uninterrupted operation cost typical value for TP engineering;
calculating the total demand of the uninterrupted operation cost in the planning year:
wherein, FE is the total requirement of the operation cost of planning year without power failure; FE (FE) TP The method is used for planning the uninterrupted operation cost requirement of the annual TP engineering.
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| CN104200392A (en) * | 2014-08-15 | 2014-12-10 | 宁波天灵信息科技有限公司 | Automatic prediction and evaluation method for power distribution reliability index of power distribution network |
| CN108470246A (en) * | 2018-03-14 | 2018-08-31 | 广东电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心 | A kind of planning distribution network reliability index evaluating method of feature based parameter |
| CN110110881A (en) * | 2019-03-21 | 2019-08-09 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | Power customer requirement forecasting analysis method and system |
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| CN104200392A (en) * | 2014-08-15 | 2014-12-10 | 宁波天灵信息科技有限公司 | Automatic prediction and evaluation method for power distribution reliability index of power distribution network |
| CN108470246A (en) * | 2018-03-14 | 2018-08-31 | 广东电网有限责任公司电网规划研究中心 | A kind of planning distribution network reliability index evaluating method of feature based parameter |
| CN110110881A (en) * | 2019-03-21 | 2019-08-09 | 贵州电网有限责任公司 | Power customer requirement forecasting analysis method and system |
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