CN114154899A - Method and system for evaluating number of uninterrupted power supply operations - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention provides a method and a system for evaluating the number of times of uninterrupted power operation, which comprises the steps of selecting a certain year as a reference year, and acquiring the average power failure time of the reference year; acquiring the average power failure time increment of the target year relative to the reference year; determining the average power failure time evaluation value of the target year according to the average power failure time increase; determining the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation of the target year according to the average power failure time evaluation value of the target year; and determining the number of times of the uninterrupted operation in the target year according to the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation in the target year. According to the invention, the average power failure time of the target year when the number of uninterrupted operations is maintained at the current state level is compared with the planned average power failure time of the target year, so that the average power failure time required to be reduced by carrying out incremental uninterrupted operations is obtained, and the number of times required by the uninterrupted operations can be accurately predicted.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of evaluation of the number of uninterrupted power operations, in particular to an evaluation method and system of the number of uninterrupted power operations.
Background
With the rapid development of economic society, the power supply reliability of various social circles is required to be higher and higher. In order to reduce the influence of urban distribution network maintenance on power supply reliability and realize the improvement of power supply reliability and high-quality service level, power grid companies increasingly attach importance to the uninterrupted operation of the distribution network with uninterrupted maintenance or short-term outage. The accurate prediction of the demand of the uninterrupted power operation is a precondition for effectively developing the uninterrupted power operation of the distribution network, but a method and a tool for evaluating the frequency of the demand of the uninterrupted power operation are still lacked at present.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method and a system for evaluating the number of times of uninterrupted operation, which solve the technical problem that the conventional method cannot evaluate the number of times of uninterrupted operation requirements.
In one aspect, a method for evaluating the number of operations without power outage is provided, including:
selecting a certain year as a reference year, and acquiring the average power failure time of the reference year; acquiring the average power failure time increment of the target year relative to the reference year;
determining the average power failure time evaluation value of the target year according to the average power failure time increase; determining the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation of the target year according to the average power failure time evaluation value of the target year;
and determining the number of times of the uninterrupted operation in the target year according to the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation in the target year.
Preferably, the average power outage time increment of the target year relative to the reference year specifically includes:
and subtracting the average power failure time increment influenced by the power grid lifting of the target year from the sum of the average power failure time increment influenced by the natural disasters of the target year and the average power failure time increment influenced by the natural disasters of the target year, and outputting the average power failure time increment of the target year relative to the reference year.
Preferably, the determining the average blackout time assessment value of the target year according to the average blackout time increase specifically includes:
and outputting the sum of the average power failure time of the reference year and the average power failure time increment of the standard year relative to the reference year as the average power failure time estimated value of the target year.
Preferably, the determining the average power failure time increment of the target year uninterrupted operation specifically includes:
acquiring an average power failure time planning value of the target year;
and outputting the difference between the planned average power failure time value of the target year and the estimated average power failure time value of the target year as the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation of the target year.
Preferably, the determining the number of uninterruptible operations of the target year specifically includes:
acquiring the average power failure time reduced by the power failure operation in the reference year and the power failure operation times in the reference year;
and outputting the ratio of the average power failure time reduced by the uninterrupted operation in the reference year to the number of times of the uninterrupted operation in the reference year as the average power failure time reduced by the single uninterrupted operation.
Preferably, the determining the number of uninterruptible operations for the target year further includes:
calculating the ratio of the average power failure time increment of the target year uninterrupted operation to the average power failure time reduced by the single uninterrupted operation to obtain the variable quantity of the target year;
acquiring the number of uninterrupted operation times of the reference year;
and outputting the sum of the uninterrupted operation frequency of the reference year and the variable quantity of the target year as the uninterrupted operation frequency of the target year.
On the other hand, a system for evaluating the number of uninterrupted power operations is also provided, which is used for implementing the method for evaluating the number of uninterrupted power operations, and comprises:
the data acquisition module is used for selecting a certain year as a reference year and acquiring the average power failure time of the reference year; acquiring the average power failure time increment of the target year relative to the reference year;
the evaluation module is used for determining the average power failure time evaluation value of the target year according to the average power failure time increase; determining the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation of the target year according to the average power failure time evaluation value of the target year; and determining the number of times of the uninterrupted operation in the target year according to the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation in the target year.
Preferably, the evaluation module is further configured to subtract the average outage time increment affected by the grid lifting in the target year from the sum of the average outage time increment affected by the natural disaster in the target year and the average outage time increment affected by the natural disaster in the target year, and output the average outage time increment of the target year relative to the reference year;
and outputting the sum of the average power failure time of the reference year and the average power failure time increment of the standard year relative to the reference year as the average power failure time estimated value of the target year.
Preferably, the evaluation module is further configured to obtain an average blackout time planning value of the target year; outputting the difference between the planned value of the average power failure time of the target year and the estimated value of the average power failure time of the target year as the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation of the target year;
acquiring the average power failure time reduced by the power failure operation in the reference year and the power failure operation times in the reference year; and outputting the ratio of the average power failure time reduced by the uninterrupted operation in the reference year to the uninterrupted operation frequency in the reference year as the average power failure time reduced by the single uninterrupted operation.
Preferably, the evaluation module is further configured to calculate a ratio of an average power outage time increment of the uninterruptible operation in the target year to an average power outage time reduced by the single uninterruptible operation, so as to obtain a variation of the target year;
acquiring the number of uninterrupted operation times of the reference year; and outputting the sum of the uninterrupted operation frequency of the reference year and the variable quantity of the target year as the uninterrupted operation frequency of the target year.
In summary, the embodiment of the invention has the following beneficial effects:
according to the method and the system for evaluating the number of times of uninterrupted operation, provided by the invention, the average power failure time of the target year when the number of times of uninterrupted operation is maintained at the current state level is compared with the planned average power failure time of the target year, so that the average power failure time required to be reduced by carrying out incremental uninterrupted operation is obtained, and an uninterrupted operation demand analysis model is provided, so that the number of times of uninterrupted operation demand can be accurately predicted.
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In order to more clearly illustrate the embodiments of the present invention or the technical solutions in the prior art, the drawings used in the description of the embodiments or the prior art will be briefly introduced below, and it is obvious that the drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the present invention, and it is within the scope of the present invention for those skilled in the art to obtain other drawings based on the drawings without inventive exercise.
Fig. 1 is a main flow diagram of a method for evaluating a number of times of uninterruptible power operation according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a system for evaluating a number of times of uninterruptible power operation according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention will be described in further detail with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Fig. 1 is a schematic diagram illustrating an embodiment of a method for evaluating a number of times of a non-stop operation according to the present invention. In this embodiment, the method comprises the steps of:
selecting a certain year as a reference year, and acquiring the average power failure time of the reference year; acquiring the average power failure time increment of the target year relative to the reference year; namely, evaluating the reliability of the target year uninterrupted operation frequency and the benchmark year when the target year is equal, wherein the reliability level of the benchmark year user is counted to obtain the average power failure time of the benchmark year; evaluating the natural disaster increment value of the target year to obtain the average power failure time increment influenced by the natural disaster of the target year; evaluating the external force damage added value of the target year to obtain the average power failure time increment influenced by the external force damage of the target year; and evaluating the reduction value of the average power failure time of the system after the power grid level is improved in the target year to obtain the average power failure time increment influenced by the power grid improvement.
In a specific embodiment, the average power failure time increment influenced by the target year natural disaster is subtracted from the sum of the average power failure time increment influenced by the target year natural disaster and the average power failure time increment influenced by the target year power grid lifting, and the average power failure time increment of the target year relative to the reference year is output.
Further, determining an average power failure time evaluation value of the target year according to the average power failure time increase; and determining the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation of the target year according to the average power failure time estimated value of the target year.
In a specific embodiment, the sum of the average blackout time of the reference year and the average blackout time increment of the target year relative to the reference year is output as the estimated average blackout time of the target year. That is, the average blackout time estimation value of the target year is equal to the average blackout time of the reference year plus the average blackout time increment affected by the natural disaster of the target year minus the average blackout time increment affected by the grid lifting of the target year.
Specifically, acquiring an average power failure time planning value of the target year; and outputting the difference between the planned average power failure time value of the target year and the estimated average power failure time value of the target year as the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation of the target year. That is, the average blackout time planning value of the target year is obtained, namely the best level of reliability is expected to be reached in the target year; the average power failure time increment (the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation in the target year) influenced by the uninterrupted operation promotion in the target year is equal to the difference between the planned average power failure time value of the target year and the estimated average power failure time value of the target year.
Further, the number of times of the uninterrupted operation in the target year is determined according to the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation in the target year.
In the specific embodiment, the average power failure time reduced by the non-power-failure operation in the reference year and the non-power-failure operation times in the reference year are obtained; and outputting the ratio of the average power failure time reduced by the uninterrupted operation in the reference year to the number of times of the uninterrupted operation in the reference year as the average power failure time reduced by the single uninterrupted operation. That is, the average power-off time reduced by the single uninterrupted operation is equal to the ratio of the average power-off time reduced by the uninterrupted operation in the reference year to the number of times of the uninterrupted operation in the reference year; the average power-off time during which the non-power-off operation in the reference year is reduced is the system average power-off time during which the number of times of the non-power-off operation in the reference year is counted from the information system, and the number of times of the non-power-off operation in the reference year is counted from the information system.
Specifically, calculating the ratio of the average power failure time increment of the target year uninterrupted operation to the average power failure time reduced by the single uninterrupted operation to obtain the variation of the target year; acquiring the number of uninterrupted operation times of the reference year; and outputting the sum of the uninterrupted operation frequency of the reference year and the variable quantity of the target year as the uninterrupted operation frequency of the target year.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of an embodiment of a system for evaluating a number of times of uninterruptible power operations according to the present invention. In this embodiment, the method includes:
the data acquisition module is used for selecting a certain year as a reference year and acquiring the average power failure time of the reference year; acquiring the average power failure time increment of the target year relative to the reference year;
the evaluation module is used for determining the average power failure time evaluation value of the target year according to the average power failure time increase; determining the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation of the target year according to the average power failure time evaluation value of the target year; and determining the number of times of the uninterrupted operation in the target year according to the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation in the target year.
Specifically, the evaluation module is further configured to subtract the average power failure time increment influenced by the power grid lifting in the target year from the sum of the average power failure time increment influenced by the natural disaster in the target year and the average power failure time increment influenced by the natural disaster in the target year, and output the average power failure time increment of the target year relative to the reference year; and outputting the sum of the average power failure time of the reference year and the average power failure time increment of the standard year relative to the reference year as the average power failure time estimated value of the target year.
The evaluation module is further used for acquiring the average power failure time planning value of the target year; outputting the difference between the planned value of the average power failure time of the target year and the estimated value of the average power failure time of the target year as the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation of the target year; acquiring the average power failure time reduced by the power failure operation in the reference year and the power failure operation times in the reference year; and outputting the ratio of the average power failure time reduced by the uninterrupted operation in the reference year to the uninterrupted operation frequency in the reference year as the average power failure time reduced by the single uninterrupted operation.
The evaluation module is further used for calculating the ratio of the average power failure time increment of the target year uninterrupted operation to the average power failure time reduced by the single uninterrupted operation to obtain the variation of the target year; acquiring the number of uninterrupted operation times of the reference year; and outputting the sum of the uninterrupted operation frequency of the reference year and the variable quantity of the target year as the uninterrupted operation frequency of the target year.
As for the implementation process of the uninterrupted operation frequency evaluation system, reference may be made to a specific implementation process of the uninterrupted operation frequency evaluation method, which is not described herein again.
In summary, the embodiment of the invention has the following beneficial effects:
according to the method and the system for evaluating the number of times of uninterrupted operation, provided by the invention, the average power failure time of the target year when the number of times of uninterrupted operation is maintained at the current state level is compared with the planned average power failure time of the target year, so that the average power failure time required to be reduced by carrying out incremental uninterrupted operation is obtained, and an uninterrupted operation demand analysis model is provided, so that the number of times of uninterrupted operation demand can be accurately predicted.
The above disclosure is only for the purpose of illustrating the preferred embodiments of the present invention, and it is therefore to be understood that the invention is not limited by the scope of the appended claims.
Claims (10)
1. A method for evaluating the number of uninterrupted power operations is characterized by comprising the following steps:
selecting a certain year as a reference year, and acquiring the average power failure time of the reference year; acquiring the average power failure time increment of the target year relative to the reference year;
determining the average power failure time evaluation value of the target year according to the average power failure time increase; determining the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation of the target year according to the average power failure time evaluation value of the target year;
and determining the number of times of the uninterrupted operation in the target year according to the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation in the target year.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the average outage time increment for the target year relative to the reference year comprises:
and subtracting the average power failure time increment influenced by the power grid lifting of the target year from the sum of the average power failure time increment influenced by the natural disasters of the target year and the average power failure time increment influenced by the natural disasters of the target year, and outputting the average power failure time increment of the target year relative to the reference year.
3. The method of claim 2, wherein said determining an average outage assessment value for said target year based on said average outage increase comprises:
and outputting the sum of the average power failure time of the reference year and the average power failure time increment of the standard year relative to the reference year as the average power failure time estimated value of the target year.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein determining the average outage time increment for the target year of uninterruptible operation comprises:
acquiring an average power failure time planning value of the target year;
and outputting the difference between the planned average power failure time value of the target year and the estimated average power failure time value of the target year as the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation of the target year.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the determining the number of uninterruptible operations for the target year comprises:
acquiring the average power failure time reduced by the power failure operation in the reference year and the power failure operation times in the reference year;
and outputting the ratio of the average power failure time reduced by the uninterrupted operation in the reference year to the number of times of the uninterrupted operation in the reference year as the average power failure time reduced by the single uninterrupted operation.
6. The method of claim 5, wherein the determining the number of uninterruptible operations for the target year further comprises:
calculating the ratio of the average power failure time increment of the target year uninterrupted operation to the average power failure time reduced by the single uninterrupted operation to obtain the variable quantity of the target year;
acquiring the number of uninterrupted operation times of the reference year;
and outputting the sum of the uninterrupted operation frequency of the reference year and the variable quantity of the target year as the uninterrupted operation frequency of the target year.
7. A system for evaluating the number of uninterrupted operations, for implementing the method of any one of claims 1 to 6, comprising:
the data acquisition module is used for selecting a certain year as a reference year and acquiring the average power failure time of the reference year; acquiring the average power failure time increment of the target year relative to the reference year;
the evaluation module is used for determining the average power failure time evaluation value of the target year according to the average power failure time increase; determining the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation of the target year according to the average power failure time evaluation value of the target year; and determining the number of times of the uninterrupted operation in the target year according to the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation in the target year.
8. The system of claim 7, wherein the evaluation module is further configured to output an average outage time increase for a target year natural disaster impact as the average outage time increase for the target year relative to the baseline year;
and outputting the sum of the average power failure time of the reference year and the average power failure time increment of the standard year relative to the reference year as the average power failure time estimated value of the target year.
9. The system of claim 8, wherein the evaluation module is further configured to obtain an average blackout time projected value for the target year; outputting the difference between the planned value of the average power failure time of the target year and the estimated value of the average power failure time of the target year as the average power failure time increment of the uninterrupted operation of the target year;
acquiring the average power failure time reduced by the power failure operation in the reference year and the power failure operation times in the reference year; and outputting the ratio of the average power failure time reduced by the uninterrupted operation in the reference year to the uninterrupted operation frequency in the reference year as the average power failure time reduced by the single uninterrupted operation.
10. The system of claim 9, wherein the evaluation module is further configured to calculate a ratio of an average outage time increment for the target year of uninterruptible operation to an average outage time reduced for the single uninterruptible operation to obtain a target year of change;
acquiring the number of uninterrupted operation times of the reference year; and outputting the sum of the uninterrupted operation frequency of the reference year and the variable quantity of the target year as the uninterrupted operation frequency of the target year.
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