CN112258002A - Method for constructing risk assessment index system of drinking water source protection area - Google Patents
Method for constructing risk assessment index system of drinking water source protection area Download PDFInfo
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- CN112258002A CN112258002A CN202011103160.0A CN202011103160A CN112258002A CN 112258002 A CN112258002 A CN 112258002A CN 202011103160 A CN202011103160 A CN 202011103160A CN 112258002 A CN112258002 A CN 112258002A
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- G06Q—INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY [ICT] SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL OR SUPERVISORY PURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for constructing a risk assessment index system of a drinking water source protection area, belongs to the technical field of risk assessment of the drinking water source protection area, and solves the problem that the risk assessment of the same or different drinking water source protection areas is lack of consistency because no method capable of scientifically and objectively guiding the construction of the risk assessment index system of the drinking water source protection area exists at present. The method for constructing the risk assessment index system of the drinking water source protection area comprises the following steps: the method comprises the following steps: and selecting the evaluation index by adopting a Delphi method and combining field investigation and literature inquiry. Step two: and constructing an index system, and forming an index level by using the selected evaluation index to further form a complete evaluation index system. Step three: and (4) calculating index weights, and determining each index weight by using an analytic hierarchy process. Step four: the method comprises an index assigning principle and a horizontal grade dividing principle, wherein a 4-point system principle is adopted for assigning scores after the direct calculation result of quantitative indexes is normalized, and qualitative indexes are assigned according to the 4-point system principle according to actual conditions.
Description
Technical Field
A method for constructing a risk assessment index system of a drinking water source protection area belongs to the technical field of risk assessment of drinking water source protection areas.
Background
The rapid development of modern society and economy leads to the continuous increase of the amount of drinking water, and the safety of the drinking water is a problem which needs to be urgently solved by people.
Industrial facilities, road facilities and other infrastructure with potential water quality pollution risks brought by rapid economic development are approaching the water source protection area more and more, so the risk assessment of the water source protection area is very important. Only by quantitatively evaluating the environmental risk faced by the water source protection area and grading, the social activities in and near the water source protection area can be reasonably guided, the contradiction between the environmental protection and the economic development can be reconciled as much as possible, and the safety of drinking water can be ensured.
At present, a number of index systems for evaluating the environmental risk of water source protection areas exist, but no index system and calculation method for scientifically and objectively evaluating the environmental risk of highly developed urban water source protection areas exist. Therefore, a plurality of different results can be generated during risk assessment of the same water source protection area and risk assessment of different water source protection areas, the risk grade and the influence degree of the water source protection area cannot be scientifically defined due to the lack of consistency of assessment conclusions, the emergency response time which can be strived for when an emergency environment event occurs and the effective emergency treatment measures which can be taken cannot be accurately determined, and once a major drinking water environment pollution accident occurs, the production and life and water supply safety of urban residents cannot be timely and effectively guaranteed.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical problem is as follows: aiming at the problem that the environmental risk assessment of the same or different water source protection areas is lack of consistency because no scientific and objective method for guiding the construction of a water source protection area risk assessment index system exists at present; the present invention provides a solution.
The technical scheme is as follows: a method for constructing a risk assessment index system of a drinking water source protection area comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: selecting an evaluation index by adopting a Delphi method and combining field investigation and literature query; literature queries include queries for standards, protocols, and specification documents;
step two: constructing an index system, forming an index layer by using the selected evaluation indexes, and dividing the indexes into a plurality of index groups according to the categories such as sensitivity, risk value, emergency capacity and the like to form a criterion layer; the pollution control level of the standard layer belongs to the target layer, and a complete evaluation index system is further formed;
step three: calculating index weight, wherein the weight of each index in an evaluation index system is determined by using an analytic hierarchy process; establishing a hierarchical structure model in yaahp10.1 software of professional analytic hierarchy process calculation software, generating a judgment matrix for pairwise comparison of indexes, and determining the weight after passing consistency check through a 1-9 scaling method;
step four: the method comprises the following steps of (1) giving scores to quantitative indexes and qualitative indexes according to different modes, directly calculating results of the quantitative indexes, normalizing the results, giving scores by adopting a 4-point system principle, and giving 0-4 points to the qualitative indexes from low to high according to actual conditions according to the 4-point system principle; then, multiplying each index assignment by the respective weight, and adding all the items to obtain the evaluated risk value of the water source protection area; finally, according to the existing research results and case analysis, the high risk score is obtained after combining the practical results, the high risk score is obtained between 3 and 4 points, the high risk score is obtained between 2 and 2.99 points, the medium risk score is obtained between 1 and 1.99 points, and the low risk score is obtained between 0 and 0.99 points.
Has the advantages that: the method for constructing the risk assessment index system of the drinking water source protection area adopts the Delphi method to select the evaluation index, so that the index evaluation system is scientific and objective. After the evaluation indexes are selected, an analytic hierarchy process is used for establishing a hierarchical model and calculating the weight of each index, so that a complex data model becomes simple and easy to calculate. After the direct calculation result of the quantitative index is normalized, assigning scores by adopting a 4-score system principle, and assigning scores by the qualitative index according to the actual situation according to the 4-score system principle; after the assigning calculation, the weighted average value of each index is calculated, and then the risk grade is confirmed according to a risk level grade division principle determined according to the actual situation; this makes the evaluation result simple and clear, and is convenient for comparative analysis. In conclusion, the technical scheme of the invention provides a scientific and objective construction guidance method for the risk assessment index system of the water source protection area, which has good consistency of the assessment results and enables the construction of the assessment system to be simple and easy to operate for technical personnel.
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FIG. 1 is a system construction flow chart of the method for constructing the risk assessment index system of the drinking water source protection area.
DETAILED DESCRIPTION OF EMBODIMENT (S) OF INVENTION
The method for constructing the risk assessment index system of the drinking water source protection area is analyzed in detail below so that people can better understand the technical scheme of the invention.
A method for constructing a risk assessment index system of a drinking water source protection area comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: selecting an evaluation index by adopting a Delphi method and combining field investigation and literature query; literature queries include queries for standards, protocols, and specification files. The delphi method, also known as an expert scoring method, is a qualitative analysis method established on the basis of experience, knowledge and intelligence of a plurality of experts in a group for analysis, evaluation and judgment, is mostly used for screening evaluation indexes of a certain project, and can be widely applied to the establishment of various evaluation index systems. The Delphi method (DelphiMethod) draws up a questionnaire by an investigator, and inquires the expert group members respectively in a mail mode according to a set program; and the expert group members submit opinions in an anonymous manner (mail). After several times of repeated inquiry and feedback, the opinions of the expert group members gradually tend to be concentrated, and finally, a collective judgment result with high accuracy is obtained.
Step two: constructing an index system, forming an index layer by using the selected evaluation indexes, and dividing the indexes into a plurality of index groups according to the categories such as sensitivity, risk value, emergency capacity and the like to form a criterion layer; the pollution control level of the standard layer belongs to the target layer, and a complete evaluation index system is formed. The indexes are divided into a plurality of index groups according to the categories such as sensitivity, risk value, emergency ability and the like, so that the evaluation system has good classification performance and is convenient to understand and calculate; and the risk assessment system of the water source area is more scientific, objective and practical.
Step three: and (4) calculating the index weight, and determining the weight of each index in the evaluation index system by using an analytic hierarchy process. A 'hierarchical structure model' is established in professional analytic hierarchy process computing software spss software, a 'judgment matrix' for pairwise comparison of indexes is generated, and the weight is determined after consistency test through a '1-9 scale method'. An Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is a hierarchical weight decision analysis method, and qualitative and semi-quantitative problems are converted into quantitative calculation, so that the thinking Process of people is hierarchical, relative importance among various related factors is compared layer by layer, and a quantitative basis is provided for analyzing, deciding, predicting or controlling development of things. The method is characterized in that on the basis of deeply researching the essence, influencing factors, internal relations and the like of the complex decision problem, the thinking process of the decision is made to be mathematical by using less quantitative information, so that the simple decision method is provided for the complex decision problem with multiple targets, multiple criteria or no structural characteristics. Are models and methods for making decisions on complex systems that are difficult to quantify completely.
Step four: the index assigning principle and the horizontal grade dividing principle are adopted, the quantitative index and the qualitative index are scored according to different modes, and the 4-point assigning principle is adopted after the direct calculation result normalization of the quantitative index. If the quantitative index becomes dimensionless after normalization, the same assigning principle as the qualitative index can be adopted. Therefore, the evaluation index system with qualitative and quantitative indexes can calculate the consistency score. The qualitative indexes are respectively given 0-4 points from low to high according to the actual situation according to the 4-point system principle. The assigning according to the actual situation is to assign the risk of the water source protection area according to different existing states of the indexes. And then, multiplying each index assignment by the respective weight, and adding all the items to obtain the evaluated risk value of the water source protection area. Finally, according to the existing research results and case analysis, the high risk score is obtained after combining the practical results, the high risk score is obtained between 3 and 4 points, the high risk score is obtained between 2 and 2.99 points, the medium risk score is obtained between 1 and 1.99 points, and the low risk score is obtained between 0 and 0.99 points. The risk grade division enables the evaluation result to be more visual and clear and convenient to understand, and provides technical support for the management decision-making department to carry out differentiation and fine management on water source protection areas with different risk grades.
Claims (1)
1. A method for constructing a risk assessment index system of a drinking water source protection area is characterized by comprising the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: selecting an evaluation index by adopting a Delphi method and combining field investigation and literature query; literature queries include queries for standards, protocols, and specification documents;
step two: constructing an index system, forming an index layer by using the selected evaluation indexes, and dividing the indexes into a plurality of index groups according to the categories such as sensitivity, risk value, emergency capacity and the like to form a criterion layer; the pollution control level of the standard layer belongs to the target layer, and a complete evaluation index system is further formed;
step three: calculating index weight, wherein the weight of each index in an evaluation index system is determined by using an analytic hierarchy process; establishing a hierarchical structure model in yaahp10.1 software of professional analytic hierarchy process calculation software, generating a judgment matrix for pairwise comparison of indexes, and determining the weight after passing consistency check through a 1-9 scaling method;
step four: the method comprises the following steps of (1) giving scores to quantitative indexes and qualitative indexes according to different modes, directly calculating results of the quantitative indexes, normalizing the results, giving scores by adopting a 4-point system principle, and giving 0-4 points to the qualitative indexes from low to high according to actual conditions according to the 4-point system principle; then, multiplying each index assignment by the respective weight, and adding all the items to obtain the evaluated risk value of the water source protection area; finally, according to the existing research results and case analysis, the high risk score is obtained after combining the practical results, the high risk score is obtained between 3 and 4 points, the high risk score is obtained between 2 and 2.99 points, the medium risk score is obtained between 1 and 1.99 points, and the low risk score is obtained between 0 and 0.99 points.
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| CN113077131A (en) * | 2021-03-19 | 2021-07-06 | 河南安盛技术管理有限公司 | Social stability risk evaluation method for expropriation land project |
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