CN112228052B

CN112228052B - Shale and tight rock oil gas productivity prediction method, evaluation method and system

Info

Publication number: CN112228052B
Application number: CN202011193662.7A
Authority: CN
Inventors: 朱光有; 王萌; 陈志勇; 李婷婷; 陈玮岩
Original assignee: Petrochina Co Ltd
Current assignee: Petrochina Co Ltd
Priority date: 2020-10-30
Filing date: 2020-10-30
Publication date: 2023-07-25
Anticipated expiration: 2040-10-30
Also published as: CN112228052A

Abstract

The invention provides a shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity prediction method, an evaluation method and a system. The prediction method comprises the following steps: constructing a productivity prediction model of shale and tight rock oil gas productivity on geology and engineering parameters including fracturing horizontal section length, reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, reservoir thickness, fracturing section number per meter, sand adding amount per meter and liquid consumption per meter; and acquiring the related data of the well to be predicted, and determining the oil gas productivity of the well to be predicted by utilizing the productivity prediction model. The evaluation method comprises the following steps: constructing oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameters based on geological and engineering parameters including fracturing horizontal section length, reservoir drilling and encountering proportion, reservoir thickness, fracturing section number per meter, sand adding amount per meter and liquid consumption per meter, and establishing a corresponding relation between the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameters and oil gas energy capacity levels; and acquiring the related data of the well to be predicted, determining the value of the oil and gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter by combining the oil and gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter, and further determining the oil and gas energy capacity level of the well to be predicted by combining the corresponding relation of the evaluation parameter and the oil and gas energy capacity level.

Description

Shale and tight rock oil gas productivity prediction method, evaluation method and system

Technical Field

The invention belongs to the technical field of oil and gas productivity quantitative evaluation and prediction, and particularly relates to a shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity prediction method, an evaluation method and a system.

Background

Shale oil gas resources are rich, and the shale oil gas is an important field for oil gas development and utilization in the future. The American shale technical revolution breaks through the profit mode of the traditional oil and gas industry and changes the world energy pattern. Under the conditions that the policy support is in place and the market development is smooth, the shale gas yield can reach 200 hundred million square in 2020 and the yield can reach 800-1000 hundred million square in 2030, which account for more than 30% of the total yield in China. Shale oil can reach 500-1000 ten thousand tons in 2030. Shale oil gas is used as an unconventional resource with the characteristic of artificial oil gas reservoir, and the productivity is subjected to various factors such as geology, engineering and the like, so that the shale oil gas has important significance for quantitative evaluation and prediction of the productivity and industrial and commercial development of the shale oil gas.

CN102509179a discloses a dynamic gas well productivity prediction method, which combines related empirical formulas to provide a method for dynamically predicting productivity in the production process of a gas well, and eliminates the influence caused by formation pressure change in the conventional productivity evaluation method, but does not consider the influence of other geological and engineering factors.

WO2008028122A3 discloses a method for oil and gas well production matching and production prediction, taking into account the influence of geology and reservoirs on production prediction, but not engineering factors.

CN102830442a provides a potential coefficient evaluation method for predicting and forecasting coalbed methane productivity, establishes a coalbed methane productivity potential coefficient evaluation model based on ANN and GIS, and proposes a coalbed methane productivity potential evaluation partition scheme, but does not consider the influence of engineering factors, so that practical application is complicated, and rapid prediction and evaluation are not facilitated.

Although geological engineering integration is a research concept known to researchers in the industry, due to the large number of geological and engineering parameters, it is impossible to determine which parameters are the dominant factors. At present, comprehensive geological and engineering factors are not reported on a shale oil and gas productivity prediction and evaluation method.

Disclosure of Invention

The invention aims to provide a shale, tight rock oil and gas productivity prediction method. The method can realize the energy capacity prediction of shale, tight rock, oil and gas single wells.

The invention aims to provide a shale, tight rock oil and gas productivity evaluation method. The method can realize the productivity evaluation of shale, tight rock oil gas single well.

In order to achieve the above purpose, the invention provides a shale, tight rock oil and gas productivity prediction method, wherein the method comprises the following steps:

constructing a productivity prediction model of shale and tight rock oil gas productivity on geology and engineering parameters including fracturing horizontal section length, reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, reservoir thickness, fracturing section number per meter, sand adding amount per meter and liquid consumption per meter;

acquiring the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption amount per meter of a well to be predicted;

and determining the oil gas productivity of the well to be predicted by using the productivity prediction model based on the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption amount per meter of the well to be predicted.

In the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity prediction method, preferably, the construction of the productivity prediction model of the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity with respect to geology and engineering parameters including fracturing horizontal section length, reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, reservoir thickness, fracturing section number per meter, sand adding amount per meter and liquid consumption per meter comprises:

constructing oil and gas energy quantification evaluation parameters based on geological and engineering parameters including fracturing horizontal section length, reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, reservoir thickness, fracturing section number per meter, sand adding amount per meter and liquid consumption per meter;

And determining the relation between the oil and gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter and the productivity so as to obtain a productivity prediction model.

In the shale and tight rock hydrocarbon productivity prediction method, preferably, determining the relationship between the hydrocarbon productivity quantitative evaluation parameter and the productivity to obtain the productivity prediction model includes:

obtaining the geological and engineering parameters of the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling proportion, the reservoir thickness, the number of fracturing sections per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption per meter of each well of the developed block, and obtaining the productivity data of each well of the developed block;

determining the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter value of each well of the developed area block based on the geological and engineering parameters of the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling proportion, the reservoir thickness, the number of fracturing sections per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption per meter of each well of the developed area block and the constructed oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameters;

and fitting and determining the relation between the productivity data and the productivity quantitative evaluation parameters based on the productivity data of each well of the developed block and the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter values of each well of the developed block, thereby obtaining a productivity prediction model.

In the shale and tight rock oil gas productivity prediction method, preferably, the productivity quantitative evaluation parameter is determined based on the product of the fracturing horizontal section length relative value, the reservoir drilling proportion relative value, the reservoir thickness relative value, the fracturing section number per meter relative value, the sand adding amount per meter relative value and the liquid consumption per meter relative value; more preferably, the energy yield evaluation parameter is

Wherein θ is a productivity evaluation parameter; l is the length of the fracturing horizontal section; beta is the drilling proportion of the reservoir; h is the reservoir thickness; n is the number of fracturing segments per meter; s is the sand adding amount per meter; w is the liquid consumption per meter; l (L) _avg The average value of the lengths of the fracturing horizontal sections of all the statistical wells of the developed zone blocks is calculated; beta _avg The average value of the reservoir drilling proportions of all the statistical wells of the developed area blocks is obtained; h is a _avg The average value of the reservoir thickness of all the statistical wells for the developed zone blocks; n (N) _avg The average value of the number of fracturing segments per meter of all the statistical wells of the developed zone blocks; s is S _avg The average value of sand adding quantity per meter of all the statistical wells of the developed area blocks; w (W) _avg The average value of the liquid usage per meter of all the statistical wells is used for the developed area.

In the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity prediction method, preferably, the productivity is daily production for the first year.

In the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity prediction method, preferably, the well to be predicted comprises one or a combination of more than two of a shale oil well, a shale gas well, a shale oil and gas co-production well and a tight gas well.

In the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity prediction method, preferably, the well to be predicted comprises one or a combination of more than two of a vertical well, a horizontal well and a highly deviated well.

In the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity prediction method, preferably, the wells to be predicted include wells in a block to be predicted, and the method further includes: determining the oil gas productivity of the block to be predicted based on the oil gas productivity of each well in the block to be predicted; specifically, the shale, tight rock oil and gas productivity prediction method comprises the following steps:

acquiring the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling proportion, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption per meter of each well in a block to be predicted;

determining the oil gas productivity of each well in the block to be predicted by utilizing the productivity prediction model based on the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling and encountering proportion, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption amount per meter of each well in the block to be predicted;

and determining the oil gas productivity of the block to be predicted based on the oil gas productivity of each well in the block to be predicted.

The invention also provides a shale and tight rock oil gas productivity evaluation method, which comprises the following steps:

establishing a corresponding relation between an oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value and an oil gas productivity level;

determining the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter value of the well to be predicted based on the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling and encountering ratio, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption amount per meter of the well to be predicted in combination with the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter;

and determining the oil gas productivity level of the well to be predicted based on the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value of the well to be predicted and in combination with the corresponding relation between the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value and the oil gas productivity level.

In the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity evaluation method, preferably, the establishing the corresponding relation between the oil and gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value and the oil and gas productivity level includes:

and determining the corresponding relation between the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter value and the oil gas energy capacity level based on the capacity data of each well of the developed block and the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter value of each well of the developed block.

In the shale and tight rock oil gas productivity evaluation method, preferably, the productivity evaluation parameter is determined based on the product of the fracturing horizontal section length relative value, the reservoir drilling proportion relative value, the reservoir thickness relative value, the fracturing section number per meter relative value, the sand adding amount per meter relative value and the liquid consumption per meter relative value; more preferably, the energy yield evaluation parameter is

Wherein θ is a productivity evaluation parameter; l is the length of the fracturing horizontal section; beta is the drilling proportion of the reservoir; h is the reservoir thickness; n is the number of fracturing segments per meter; s is the sand adding amount per meter; w is the liquid consumption per meter; l (L) _avg For a developed areaThe average value of the lengths of the fracturing horizontal sections of all the statistical wells is obtained; beta _avg The average value of the reservoir drilling proportions of all the statistical wells of the developed area blocks is obtained; h is a _avg The average value of the reservoir thickness of all the statistical wells for the developed zone blocks; n (N) _avg The average value of the number of fracturing segments per meter of all the statistical wells of the developed zone blocks; s is S _avg The average value of sand adding quantity per meter of all the statistical wells of the developed area blocks; w (W) _avg The average value of the liquid usage per meter of all the statistical wells is used for the developed area.

In the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity evaluation method, preferably, the productivity is daily production for the first year.

In the shale and tight rock hydrocarbon productivity evaluation method, preferably, in the correspondence relationship between the hydrocarbon productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value and the hydrocarbon productivity level,

the daily gas production equivalent of the first year is more than or equal to 10 square per day, and the corresponding oil gas productivity evaluation parameter value is the oil gas productivity grade I;

the daily gas production equivalent of the first year is not lower than 6 kilowatts/day and is lower than the corresponding oil gas energy production quantitative evaluation parameter value of 10 kilowatts/day, and the oil gas energy production level is class II;

and the oil gas productivity grade is class III when the daily gas production equivalent of the first year is lower than the corresponding oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value of 6 square/day.

In the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity evaluation method, preferably, the well to be predicted comprises one or a combination of more than two of a shale oil well, a shale gas well, a shale oil and gas co-production well and a tight gas well.

In the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity evaluation method, preferably, the well to be predicted comprises one or a combination of more than two of a vertical well, a horizontal well and a highly deviated well.

The invention provides a shale and tight rock oil gas productivity prediction system, which comprises:

the productivity prediction model building unit: the method is used for constructing a productivity prediction model of geological and engineering parameters of shale and tight rock oil gas productivity about fracturing horizontal section length, reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, reservoir thickness, fracturing section number per meter, sand adding amount per meter and liquid consumption per meter;

obtaining unit of well geology and engineering parameters to be predicted: the method is used for obtaining the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling meeting proportion, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption per meter of the well to be predicted;

the oil gas productivity determining unit of the well to be predicted: the method is used for determining the oil gas productivity of the well to be predicted based on the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption amount per meter of the well to be predicted by utilizing the productivity prediction model.

In the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity prediction system, preferably, the productivity prediction model building unit includes:

And an evaluation parameter construction module: the method is used for constructing oil and gas energy quantification evaluation parameters based on geological and engineering parameters including the length of a fracturing horizontal section, the drilling and encountering proportion of a reservoir, the thickness of the reservoir, the number of fracturing sections per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption amount per meter;

the productivity prediction model determining module: and the method is used for determining the relation between the oil and gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter and the productivity so as to obtain a productivity prediction model.

In the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity prediction system, preferably, the productivity prediction model determining module includes:

well data acquisition sub-modules have been developed: the method comprises the steps of obtaining geological and engineering parameters of fracturing horizontal section length, reservoir drilling meeting proportion, reservoir thickness, fracturing section number per meter, sand adding amount per meter and liquid consumption per meter of each well of an established zone block, and obtaining productivity data of each well of the established zone block;

the developed well evaluation parameter value determination submodule: the method is used for determining the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter value of each well of the developed area block based on the geological and engineering parameters of the developed area block, such as the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling meeting proportion, the reservoir thickness, the number of fracturing sections per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption per meter, and the constructed oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameters;

The capacity prediction model determination submodule: and the method is used for fitting and determining the relation between the productivity data and the productivity quantitative evaluation parameters based on the productivity data of each well of the developed block and the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter values of each well of the developed block, so as to obtain a productivity prediction model.

In the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity prediction system, preferably, the productivity quantitative evaluation parameter is determined based on the product of the fracturing horizontal section length relative value, the reservoir drilling proportion relative value, the reservoir thickness relative value, the fracturing section number per meter relative value, the sand adding amount per meter relative value and the liquid consumption per meter relative value; more preferably, the energy yield evaluation parameter is

In the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity prediction system, preferably, the productivity is daily production for the first year.

In the shale and tight rock hydrocarbon productivity prediction system, preferably, the well to be predicted comprises one or a combination of more than two of a shale oil well, a shale gas well, a shale hydrocarbon co-production well and a tight gas well.

In the shale, tight rock hydrocarbon production capacity prediction system, preferably, the well to be predicted comprises one or a combination of more than two of a vertical well, a horizontal well and a highly deviated well.

In the shale and tight rock hydrocarbon productivity prediction system, preferably, the wells to be predicted include wells in a block to be predicted, and the prediction system further includes:

the oil gas capacity determining unit of the block to be predicted: the method comprises the steps of determining the oil gas productivity of a block to be predicted based on the oil gas productivity of each well in the block to be predicted;

specifically, the shale, tight rock hydrocarbon productivity prediction system comprises:

Obtaining unit of well geology and engineering parameters to be predicted: the method is used for obtaining the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling proportion, the reservoir thickness, the number of fracturing sections per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption per meter of each well in the block to be predicted;

the oil gas productivity determining unit of the well to be predicted: the method comprises the steps of determining oil gas productivity of each well in a block to be predicted by utilizing a productivity prediction model based on the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling meeting proportion, the reservoir thickness, the number of fracturing sections per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption per meter of each well in the block to be predicted;

the oil gas capacity determining unit of the block to be predicted: the method is used for determining the oil gas productivity of the block to be predicted based on the oil gas productivity of each well in the block to be predicted.

The invention provides a shale and tight rock oil gas productivity evaluation system, which comprises:

evaluation parameter construction unit: the method is used for constructing oil and gas energy quantification evaluation parameters based on geological and engineering parameters including the length of a fracturing horizontal section, the drilling and encountering proportion of a reservoir, the thickness of the reservoir, the number of fracturing sections per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption amount per meter;

capacity level dividing unit: the method is used for establishing a corresponding relation between the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value and the oil gas productivity level;

a well evaluation parameter value determination unit to be predicted: the method comprises the steps of determining the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter value of a well to be predicted based on the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling and encountering proportion, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption amount per meter of the well to be predicted, and combining the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter;

the well oil gas productivity level to be predicted determining unit: and the method is used for determining the oil gas productivity level of the well to be predicted based on the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value of the well to be predicted and combining the corresponding relation between the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value and the oil gas productivity level.

In the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity evaluation system, preferably, the productivity level dividing unit includes:

well data acquisition modules have been developed: the method comprises the steps of obtaining geological and engineering parameters of fracturing horizontal section length, reservoir drilling meeting proportion, reservoir thickness, fracturing section number per meter, sand adding amount per meter and liquid consumption per meter of each well of an established zone block, and obtaining productivity data of each well of the established zone block;

Well evaluation parameter value determination modules have been developed: the method is used for determining the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter value of each well of the developed area block based on the geological and engineering parameters of the developed area block, such as the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling meeting proportion, the reservoir thickness, the number of fracturing sections per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption per meter, and the constructed oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameters;

capacity level dividing module: and the method is used for determining the corresponding relation between the oil gas energy production evaluation parameter value and the oil gas energy production level based on the energy production data of each well of the developed block and the oil gas energy production evaluation parameter value of each well of the developed block.

In the shale and tight rock oil gas productivity evaluation system, preferably, the productivity evaluation parameter is determined based on the product of the fracturing horizontal section length relative value, the reservoir drilling proportion relative value, the reservoir thickness relative value, the fracturing section number per meter relative value, the sand adding amount per meter relative value and the liquid consumption per meter relative value; more preferably, the energy yield evaluation parameter is

In the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity evaluation system, preferably, the productivity is daily production for the first year.

In the shale and tight rock hydrocarbon productivity evaluation system, preferably, in the correspondence relationship between the hydrocarbon productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value and the hydrocarbon productivity level,

In the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity evaluation system, preferably, the well to be predicted comprises one or a combination of more than two of a shale oil well, a shale gas well, a shale oil and gas co-production well and a tight gas well.

In the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity evaluation system, preferably, the well to be predicted comprises one or a combination of more than two of a vertical well, a horizontal well and a highly deviated well.

The invention also provides a shale and tight rock oil gas productivity prediction device, which comprises a processor and a memory; wherein,,

a memory for storing a computer program;

and the processor is used for realizing the steps of the shale and tight rock oil gas productivity prediction method when executing the program stored in the memory.

The invention also provides a shale and tight rock oil gas productivity evaluation device, which comprises a processor and a memory; wherein,,

a memory for storing a computer program;

and the processor is used for realizing the steps of the shale and tight rock oil gas productivity evaluation method when executing the program stored in the memory.

The invention also provides a computer readable storage medium storing one or more programs executable by one or more processors to implement the steps of the shale, tight rock hydrocarbon production capacity prediction method described above.

The invention also provides a computer readable storage medium storing one or more programs executable by one or more processors to implement the steps of the shale, tight rock hydrocarbon production capacity evaluation method.

According to the technical scheme provided by the invention, the shale and tight rock oil-gas productivity prediction and/or evaluation is performed based on geological and engineering parameters including the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, the reservoir thickness, the number of fracturing sections per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption per meter. Compared with the prior art, the technical scheme provided by the invention has the following advantages:

1. compared with other methods in the field, the method comprehensively considers geological and engineering factors influencing shale oil and gas energy evaluation and prediction.

2. The quantitative evaluation and prediction method provided by the invention has high matching degree with the actual situation.

3. The quantitative evaluation and prediction method provided by the invention is simple, is easy to master and popularize, and is favorable for rapid quantitative evaluation and prediction.

Drawings

Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a shale, tight rock, oil and gas productivity prediction method according to an embodiment of the invention.

Fig. 2 is a schematic flow chart of a shale, tight rock oil and gas productivity evaluation method according to an embodiment of the invention.

FIG. 3 is a graph showing the fit relationship between daily oil production and quantitative evaluation parameters of oil and gas production in example 1 of the present invention.

FIG. 4 is a graph showing the fit relationship between daily oil production and quantitative evaluation parameters of oil and gas production in comparative example 2.

Fig. 5 is a graph showing the fit relationship between daily output and oil and gas productivity evaluation parameters in comparative example 3.

FIG. 6 is a schematic diagram of a shale, tight rock hydrocarbon production capacity prediction system in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.

FIG. 7 is a schematic diagram of a shale, tight rock hydrocarbon production system in accordance with an embodiment of the present invention.

Fig. 8 is a schematic structural diagram of a shale, tight rock oil and gas productivity prediction device according to an embodiment of the present invention.

Detailed Description

In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more clear, the technical solutions of the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below with reference to the accompanying drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. It will be apparent that the described embodiments are some, but not all, embodiments of the invention. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the invention without making any inventive effort, are intended to fall within the scope of the invention.

The principles and spirit of the present invention are described in detail below with reference to several representative embodiments thereof.

Referring to fig. 1, in order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides a shale, tight rock hydrocarbon production capacity prediction method, wherein the method comprises:

Step S1: constructing a productivity prediction model of shale and tight rock oil gas productivity on geology and engineering parameters including fracturing horizontal section length, reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, reservoir thickness, fracturing section number per meter, sand adding amount per meter and liquid consumption per meter;

step S2: acquiring the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption amount per meter of a well to be predicted;

step S3: and determining the oil gas productivity of the well to be predicted by using the productivity prediction model based on the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption amount per meter of the well to be predicted.

Further, the construction of the productivity prediction model of the geological and engineering parameters of shale and tight rock oil gas production capacity, including fracturing horizontal stage length, reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, reservoir thickness, fracturing stage number per meter, sand adding amount per meter and liquid consumption per meter, comprises the following steps:

Further, determining a relationship between the hydrocarbon capacity quantification evaluation parameter and the capacity to obtain a capacity prediction model includes:

Further, the energy capacity quantification evaluation parameter is determined based on the product of the fracturing horizontal section length relative value, the reservoir drilling proportion relative value, the reservoir thickness relative value, the fracturing section number per meter relative value, the sand adding amount per meter relative value and the liquid consumption amount per meter relative value;

In one embodiment, the energy yield evaluation parameter is

Further, the productivity is daily output for the first year.

Further, the wells to be predicted include one or a combination of more than two of shale oil wells, shale gas wells, shale oil and gas co-production wells and tight gas wells.

Further, the well to be predicted includes one or a combination of two or more of a vertical well, a horizontal well, and a highly deviated well.

Further, the wells to be predicted include wells in a block to be predicted, the method further comprising: determining the oil gas productivity of the block to be predicted based on the oil gas productivity of each well in the block to be predicted;

Specifically, the shale, tight rock oil and gas productivity prediction method comprises the following steps:

Referring to fig. 2, in order to achieve the above object, the present invention provides a shale, tight rock hydrocarbon productivity evaluation method, wherein the method comprises:

step S21: constructing oil and gas energy quantification evaluation parameters based on geological and engineering parameters including fracturing horizontal section length, reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, reservoir thickness, fracturing section number per meter, sand adding amount per meter and liquid consumption per meter;

Step S22: establishing a corresponding relation between an oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value and an oil gas productivity level;

step S23: acquiring the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption amount per meter of a well to be predicted;

step S24: determining the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter value of the well to be predicted based on the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling and encountering ratio, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption amount per meter of the well to be predicted in combination with the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter;

step S25: and determining the oil gas productivity level of the well to be predicted based on the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value of the well to be predicted and in combination with the corresponding relation between the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value and the oil gas productivity level.

Further, establishing the correspondence between the oil and gas productivity evaluation parameter value and the oil and gas productivity level includes:

in one embodiment, the energy yield evaluation parameter is

Wherein θ is a productivity evaluation parameter; l is the length of the fracturing horizontal section; beta is the drilling proportion of the reservoir; h is the reservoir thickness; n is the number of fracturing segments per meter; s is the sand adding amount per meter; w is the liquid consumption per meter;L _avg the average value of the lengths of the fracturing horizontal sections of all the statistical wells of the developed zone blocks is calculated; beta _avg The average value of the reservoir drilling proportions of all the statistical wells of the developed area blocks is obtained; h is a _avg The average value of the reservoir thickness of all the statistical wells for the developed zone blocks; n (N) _avg The average value of the number of fracturing segments per meter of all the statistical wells of the developed zone blocks; s is S _avg The average value of sand adding quantity per meter of all the statistical wells of the developed area blocks; w (W) _avg The average value of the liquid usage per meter of all the statistical wells is used for the developed area.

Further, the productivity is daily output for the first year.

Further, in the correspondence between the oil and gas productivity evaluation parameter value and the oil and gas productivity level,

Example 1

The embodiment provides a shale and tight rock oil gas productivity prediction method and an evaluation method, wherein the method is used for predicting and evaluating productivity of each well of a B block, and comprises the following steps:

step one: constructing oil and gas energy quantification evaluation parameters based on geological and engineering parameters including fracturing horizontal section length, reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, reservoir thickness, fracturing section number per meter, sand adding amount per meter and liquid consumption per meter;

Wherein the energy yield evaluation parameter is

Step two: obtaining the geological and engineering parameters of the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling meeting proportion, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption per meter of each well of the developed block A, and obtaining the productivity data of each well of the developed block A;

wherein L in A block _avg ＝1385m；β _avg ＝56％；h _avg ＝5.46m；N _avg =0.014 pieces/m; s is S _avg ＝1.54t/m；W _avg ＝27.24m ³ /m。

Step three: determining the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter value of each well of the developed area block based on the geological and engineering parameters of the length of the fracturing horizontal section, the drilling and encountering proportion of the reservoir, the thickness of the reservoir, the number of fracturing sections per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption per meter of each well of the developed area block A and the constructed oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameters;

Step four:

(1) Based on the capacity data of each well of the developed block A and the oil gas capacity quantitative evaluation parameter values of each well of the developed block A, fitting and determining the relation between the capacity data and the capacity quantitative evaluation parameters, thereby obtaining a capacity prediction model;

the relation between the productivity data and the productivity evaluation parameters is shown in fig. 3; the capacity prediction model is as follows:

wherein y is daily output for the first year; θ is a productivity evaluation parameter; l is the length of the fracturing horizontal section; beta is the drilling proportion of the reservoir; h is the reservoir thickness; n is the number of fracturing segments per meter; s is the sand adding amount per meter; w is the liquid consumption per meter; l (L) _avg The average value of the lengths of the fracturing horizontal sections of all the statistical wells of the developed zone blocks is calculated; beta _avg The average value of the reservoir drilling proportions of all the statistical wells of the developed area blocks is obtained; h is a _avg The average value of the reservoir thickness of all the statistical wells for the developed zone blocks; n (N) _avg The average value of the number of fracturing segments per meter of all the statistical wells of the developed zone blocks; s is S _avg The average value of sand adding quantity per meter of all the statistical wells of the developed area blocks; w (W) _avg The average value of the liquid usage per meter of all the statistical wells is used for the developed area.

(2) Determining the corresponding relation between the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value and the oil gas productivity level based on the productivity data of each well of the developed block A and the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value of each well of the developed block A;

The results are shown in Table 1.

TABLE 1

Gas well classification	First year daily product (all square/day)	Quantitative evaluation parameter θ
			Class I	≥10	≥1.60
Class II	6-10	0.45-1.60
			Class III	<6	<0.45

Step five: and obtaining the fracturing horizontal section length, the drilling and encountering proportion of the reservoir, the thickness of the reservoir, the number of fracturing sections per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption per meter of each well to be predicted in the block B to be predicted.

Step six:

(1) Determining the oil gas productivity of the wells to be predicted by utilizing the productivity prediction model based on the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling and encountering proportion, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption per meter of each well to be predicted in the block B to be predicted;

the results are shown in Table 2;

(2) Determining the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter value of the well to be predicted based on the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling and encountering ratio, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption amount per meter of the well to be predicted in combination with the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter; determining the oil gas productivity level of the well to be predicted based on the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value of the well to be predicted and in combination with the corresponding relation between the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value and the oil gas productivity level;

the results are shown in Table 2.

TABLE 2

From table 2, it can be seen that 19 wells in 21 wells of the B block meet the classification evaluation criteria, and only 2 wells fail to meet the classification evaluation criteria, so that the prediction accuracy is 90.5%; the prediction deviation of the predicted first-year daily yield and the actual first-year daily yield of the well of the block B21 is not more than 13.5 percent.

The quantization evaluation and prediction method provided by the invention is applied to the C block and the D block for 2 years. The single-well first-year daily yield of 16 wells developed in 2019 by the C block is improved by 23.3-43.6% compared with the single-well first-year daily yield of 33 wells developed in 2018 by the C block. The single-well first-year daily yield of 22 wells developed by the block D in 2019 is improved by 15.5-30.9% compared with the single-well first-year daily yield of 52 wells developed by the block D in 2018.

Comparative example 1

Before 2019, since the established quantitative evaluation and prediction method is not used for guiding production, the first annual daily yield of a single well of 33 wells developed in 2018 of a C block is only 6.55 square meters per day, and the economic benefit development requirement of the minimum yield of 6% set by a development scheme cannot be realized. The first annual daily yield of a single well of 22 wells developed in the D block in 2019 is only 7.68 square per day, and the economic benefit development requirement of the lowest yield of 6% set by the development scheme cannot be realized.

Comparative example 2

In 2020, the method for quantitatively evaluating and predicting the capacity of the oil and gas well which is not correctly used by the E block is specifically characterized in that only the length L of a fracturing horizontal section, the number N of fracturing sections per meter, the sand adding amount S per meter and the liquid consumption W per meter are considered, and the drilling and encountering proportion beta of a reservoir and the reservoir thickness h of the reservoir are not considered, so that the capacity quantitative evaluation parameter is established For the predicted development of 11 wells (see example 1 for other steps), the relationship between the capacity data fitted with the capacity data of each well of the developed block a block and the capacity quantification evaluation parameters is shown in fig. 4, and the capacity prediction model determined with the capacity data of each well of the developed block a block is:

wherein y' is daily output for the first year; θ' is a productivity evaluation parameter; l is the length of the fracturing horizontal section; beta is the drilling proportion of the reservoir; h is the reservoir thickness; n is the number of fracturing segments per meter; s is the sand adding amount per meter; w is the liquid consumption per meter; l (L) _avg The average value of the lengths of the fracturing horizontal sections of all the statistical wells of the developed zone blocks is calculated; beta _avg The average value of the reservoir drilling proportions of all the statistical wells of the developed area blocks is obtained; h is a _avg The average value of the reservoir thickness of all the statistical wells for the developed zone blocks; n (N) _avg The average value of the number of fracturing segments per meter of all the statistical wells of the developed zone blocks; s is S _avg The average value of sand adding quantity per meter of all the statistical wells of the developed area blocks; w (W) _avg The average value of the liquid usage per meter of all the statistical wells is used for the developed area.

The prediction results are shown in Table 3.

TABLE 3 Table 3

From table 3, it can be seen that only 1 well is successfully predicted in classification evaluation and prediction of 11 wells of the E block, and the prediction deviation between the first-year daily production of 11 wells and the actual first-year daily production is greater than 34%.

Comparative example 3: in 2020, the method for quantitatively evaluating and predicting the capacity of the oil and gas well by using the F block incorrectly is characterized in that the porosity K, the organic matter content J, the gas content G, the brittleness index C, the natural fracture trend T, the fracturing section length Y, the liquid amount L and the sand amount A are taken into consideration, and the capacity evaluation parameter is establishedFor the predicted development of 8 wells (see example 1 for other steps), the relationship between the capacity data fitted with the capacity data of each well of the developed block a block and the capacity quantification evaluation parameters is shown in fig. 5, and the capacity prediction model determined with the capacity data of each well of the developed block a block is: />

Wherein y' is daily output for the first year; θ "is a productivity evaluation parameter; l is the length of the fracturing horizontal section; beta is the drilling proportion of the reservoir; h is the reservoir thickness; n is the number of fracturing segments per meter; s is the sand adding amount per meter; w is the liquid consumption per meter; l (L) _avg The average value of the lengths of the fracturing horizontal sections of all the statistical wells of the developed zone blocks is calculated; beta _avg The average value of the reservoir drilling proportions of all the statistical wells of the developed area blocks is obtained; h is a _avg The average value of the reservoir thickness of all the statistical wells for the developed zone blocks; n (N) _avg The average value of the number of fracturing segments per meter of all the statistical wells of the developed zone blocks; s is S _avg The average value of sand adding quantity per meter of all the statistical wells of the developed area blocks; w (W) _avg The average value of the liquid usage per meter of all the statistical wells is used for the developed area.

The prediction results are shown in Table 4.

TABLE 4 Table 4

From table 4, it can be seen that the classification evaluation and prediction of the F block 8 wells are not successful in 1 well prediction, and the prediction deviation between the first year daily yield and the actual first year daily yield of the 8 wells is greater than 36%.

The embodiment of the invention also provides a shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity prediction system, and the system is preferably used for realizing the method embodiment.

FIG. 6 is a block diagram of a shale, tight rock hydrocarbon production capacity prediction system, as shown in FIG. 6, according to an embodiment of the invention, comprising:

capacity prediction model construction unit 41: the method is used for constructing a productivity prediction model of geological and engineering parameters of shale and tight rock oil gas productivity about fracturing horizontal section length, reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, reservoir thickness, fracturing section number per meter, sand adding amount per meter and liquid consumption per meter;

the well geology to be predicted, engineering parameter acquisition unit 42: the method is used for obtaining the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling meeting proportion, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption per meter of the well to be predicted;

the hydrocarbon production capacity determination unit 43 of the well to be predicted: the method is used for determining the oil gas productivity of the well to be predicted based on the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption amount per meter of the well to be predicted by utilizing the productivity prediction model.

Further, the capacity prediction model construction unit 41 includes:

Further, the capacity prediction model determining module includes:

in one embodiment, the energy yield evaluation parameter is

Further, the productivity is daily output for the first year.

Further, the well to be predicted comprises one or a combination of more than two of a shale oil well, a shale gas well, a shale oil and gas co-production well and a tight gas well.

Further, the wells to be predicted include wells in a block to be predicted, the prediction system further comprising:

The embodiment of the invention also provides a shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity evaluation system, and preferably the system is used for realizing the method embodiment.

FIG. 7 is a block diagram of a shale, tight rock hydrocarbon production capacity evaluation system according to an embodiment of the invention, as shown in FIG. 7, comprising:

evaluation parameter construction unit 51: the method is used for constructing oil and gas energy quantification evaluation parameters based on geological and engineering parameters including the length of a fracturing horizontal section, the drilling and encountering proportion of a reservoir, the thickness of the reservoir, the number of fracturing sections per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption amount per meter;

capacity level dividing unit 52: the method is used for establishing a corresponding relation between the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value and the oil gas productivity level;

The well geology to be predicted, engineering parameter acquisition unit 53: the method is used for obtaining the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling meeting proportion, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption per meter of the well to be predicted;

well evaluation parameter value determination unit to be predicted 54: the method comprises the steps of determining the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter value of a well to be predicted based on the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling and encountering proportion, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption amount per meter of the well to be predicted, and combining the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter;

the well hydrocarbon productivity level to be predicted determining unit 55: and the method is used for determining the oil gas productivity level of the well to be predicted based on the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value of the well to be predicted and combining the corresponding relation between the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value and the oil gas productivity level.

Further, the capacity level dividing unit includes:

in one embodiment, the energy yield evaluation parameter is

Further, the productivity is daily output for the first year.

Fig. 8 is a schematic diagram of a shale, tight rock hydrocarbon production capacity prediction apparatus according to an embodiment of the invention. The shale, tight rock hydrocarbon production capacity prediction apparatus shown in fig. 8 is a general data processing apparatus, which comprises a general computer hardware structure, and at least comprises a processor 1000 and a memory 1111; the processor 1000 is configured to execute an inversion program stored in the memory, so as to implement the shale and tight rock hydrocarbon productivity prediction method according to each method embodiment (the specific method is referred to the description of the above method embodiment, and is not repeated here).

The embodiment of the invention also provides a schematic diagram of the shale and tight rock oil gas productivity evaluation device. The shale and tight rock oil gas productivity prediction device is a general data processing device and comprises a general computer hardware structure, wherein the general data processing device at least comprises a processor and a memory; the processor is configured to execute the inversion program stored in the memory, so as to implement the shale and tight rock oil-gas productivity evaluation method according to each method embodiment (the specific method is referred to the description of the above method embodiments, and is not repeated here).

The embodiment of the invention also provides a computer readable storage medium, which stores one or more programs, and the one or more programs can be executed by one or more processors, so as to implement the shale and tight rock oil-gas productivity prediction method according to each method embodiment (the specific method refers to the description of the method embodiments and is not repeated here).

The embodiment of the invention also provides a computer readable storage medium, wherein the storage medium stores one or more programs, and the one or more programs can be executed by one or more processors to implement the shale and tight rock oil and gas productivity evaluation method according to each method embodiment (the specific method refers to the description of the method embodiments and is not repeated here).

Preferred embodiments of the present invention are described above with reference to the accompanying drawings. The many features and advantages of the embodiments are apparent from the detailed specification, and thus, it is intended by the appended claims to cover all such features and advantages of the embodiments which fall within the true spirit and scope thereof. Further, since numerous modifications and changes will readily occur to those skilled in the art, it is not desired to limit the embodiments of the invention to the exact construction and operation illustrated and described, and accordingly, all suitable modifications and equivalents may be resorted to, falling within the scope thereof.

It will be appreciated by those skilled in the art that embodiments of the present invention may be provided as a method, system, or computer program product. Accordingly, the present invention may take the form of an entirely hardware embodiment, an entirely software embodiment or an embodiment combining software and hardware aspects. Furthermore, the present invention may take the form of a computer program product embodied on one or more computer-usable storage media (including, but not limited to, disk storage, CD-ROM, optical storage, and the like) having computer-usable program code embodied therein.

The present invention is described with reference to flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams of methods, apparatus (systems) and computer program products according to embodiments of the invention. It will be understood that each flow and/or block of the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, and combinations of flows and/or blocks in the flowchart illustrations and/or block diagrams, can be implemented by computer program instructions. These computer program instructions may be provided to a processor of a general purpose computer, special purpose computer, embedded processor, or other programmable data processing apparatus to produce a machine, such that the instructions, which execute via the processor of the computer or other programmable data processing apparatus, create means for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.

These computer program instructions may also be stored in a computer-readable memory that can direct a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to function in a particular manner, such that the instructions stored in the computer-readable memory produce an article of manufacture including instruction means which implement the function specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.

These computer program instructions may also be loaded onto a computer or other programmable data processing apparatus to cause a series of operational steps to be performed on the computer or other programmable apparatus to produce a computer implemented process such that the instructions which execute on the computer or other programmable apparatus provide steps for implementing the functions specified in the flowchart flow or flows and/or block diagram block or blocks.

The principles and embodiments of the present invention have been described in detail with reference to specific examples, which are provided to facilitate understanding of the method and core ideas of the present invention; meanwhile, as those skilled in the art will have variations in the specific embodiments and application scope in accordance with the ideas of the present invention, the present description should not be construed as limiting the present invention in view of the above.

Claims

1. A shale, tight rock hydrocarbon production capacity prediction method, wherein the method comprises:

determining the oil gas productivity of the well to be predicted by utilizing the productivity prediction model based on the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption amount per meter of the well to be predicted;

the productivity prediction model for constructing geological and engineering parameters of shale and tight rock oil gas productivity, including fracturing horizontal stage length, reservoir drilling and meeting proportion, reservoir thickness, fracturing stage number per meter, sand adding amount per meter and liquid consumption per meter comprises the following steps:

Determining the relation between the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter and productivity so as to obtain a productivity prediction model;

wherein, the energy yield evaluation parameters are as follows:

2. The prediction method according to claim 1, wherein the determining the relationship between the hydrocarbon productivity assessment parameter and the productivity to obtain the productivity prediction model comprises:

3. The prediction method according to claim 1 or 2, wherein the productivity is daily output.

4. The prediction method of claim 1, wherein the wells to be predicted comprise wells in a block to be predicted, the method further comprising: and determining the oil gas productivity of the block to be predicted based on the oil gas productivity of each well in the block to be predicted.

5. A shale, tight rock oil gas productivity evaluation method, wherein, the method includes:

determining the oil gas productivity level of the well to be predicted based on the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value of the well to be predicted and in combination with the corresponding relation between the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value and the oil gas productivity level;

the establishing the corresponding relation between the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter value and the oil gas energy capacity level comprises the following steps:

Determining the corresponding relation between the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter value and the oil gas energy capacity level based on the capacity data of each well of the developed block and the oil gas energy capacity quantitative evaluation parameter value of each well of the developed block;

wherein the energy yield evaluation parameter is

6. The evaluation method according to claim 5, wherein the productivity is daily output of the first year.

7. The evaluation method according to claim 5 or 6, wherein in the correspondence between the oil and gas productivity evaluation parameter value and the oil and gas productivity level,

8. A shale, tight rock hydrocarbon production capacity prediction system, wherein the system comprises:

the oil gas productivity determining unit of the well to be predicted: the method is used for determining the oil gas productivity of the well to be predicted based on the fracturing horizontal section length, the reservoir drilling and encountering proportion, the reservoir thickness, the fracturing section number per meter, the sand adding amount per meter and the liquid consumption amount per meter of the well to be predicted by utilizing the productivity prediction model;

The productivity prediction model construction unit comprises:

the productivity prediction model determining module: the method comprises the steps of determining a relation between oil and gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameters and productivity so as to obtain a productivity prediction model;

wherein, the energy yield evaluation parameters are as follows:

9. The prediction system of claim 8, wherein the capacity prediction model determination module comprises:

10. The prediction system according to claim 8 or 9, wherein the capacity is daily.

11. The prediction system of claim 8, wherein the wells to be predicted comprise wells in a block to be predicted, the prediction system further comprising:

12. Shale, tight rock oil gas productivity evaluation system, wherein, this system includes:

The well oil gas productivity level to be predicted determining unit: the method comprises the steps of determining the oil gas productivity level of a well to be predicted based on the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value of the well to be predicted and combining the corresponding relation between the oil gas productivity quantitative evaluation parameter value and the oil gas productivity level;

wherein the capacity level dividing unit includes:

capacity level dividing module: the method comprises the steps of determining the corresponding relation between oil gas energy capacity evaluation parameter values and oil gas energy capacity levels based on the capacity data of each well of an established area block and the oil gas energy capacity evaluation parameter values of each well of the established area block;

Wherein, the energy yield evaluation parameters are as follows:

13. The assessment system according to claim 12, wherein the capacity is daily output.

14. The evaluation system according to claim 12 or 13, wherein in the correspondence between the hydrocarbon productivity evaluation parameter value and the hydrocarbon productivity level,

15. A shale, tight rock oil gas productivity prediction device comprises a processor and a memory; wherein,,

a memory for storing a computer program;

a processor for implementing the shale, tight rock hydrocarbon production capacity prediction method of any one of claims 1-4 when executing a program stored on a memory.

16. The shale and tight rock oil gas productivity evaluation device comprises a processor and a memory; wherein,,

a memory for storing a computer program;

a processor for implementing the shale, tight rock hydrocarbon production capacity evaluation method steps of any one of claims 5-7 when executing a program stored on a memory.

17. A computer readable storage medium storing one or more programs executable by one or more processors to implement the steps of the shale, tight rock hydrocarbon production capacity prediction method of any of claims 1-4.

18. A computer readable storage medium storing one or more programs executable by one or more processors to perform the steps of the shale, tight rock hydrocarbon production capacity evaluation method of any of claims 5-7.