CN109882163A - A kind of PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS for compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well - Google Patents
A kind of PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS for compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well Download PDFInfo
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- CN109882163A CN109882163A CN201910235271.8A CN201910235271A CN109882163A CN 109882163 A CN109882163 A CN 109882163A CN 201910235271 A CN201910235271 A CN 201910235271A CN 109882163 A CN109882163 A CN 109882163A
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- horizontal well
- oil reservoir
- daily output
- pressure break
- reservoir pressure
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Classifications
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- E—FIXED CONSTRUCTIONS
- E21—EARTH DRILLING; MINING
- E21B—EARTH DRILLING, e.g. DEEP DRILLING; OBTAINING OIL, GAS, WATER, SOLUBLE OR MELTABLE MATERIALS OR A SLURRY OF MINERALS FROM WELLS
- E21B43/00—Methods or apparatus for obtaining oil, gas, water, soluble or meltable materials or a slurry of minerals from wells
- E21B43/25—Methods for stimulating production
- E21B43/26—Methods for stimulating production by forming crevices or fractures
-
- E—FIXED CONSTRUCTIONS
- E21—EARTH DRILLING; MINING
- E21B—EARTH DRILLING, e.g. DEEP DRILLING; OBTAINING OIL, GAS, WATER, SOLUBLE OR MELTABLE MATERIALS OR A SLURRY OF MINERALS FROM WELLS
- E21B43/00—Methods or apparatus for obtaining oil, gas, water, soluble or meltable materials or a slurry of minerals from wells
- E21B43/25—Methods for stimulating production
- E21B43/26—Methods for stimulating production by forming crevices or fractures
- E21B43/267—Methods for stimulating production by forming crevices or fractures reinforcing fractures by propping
-
- E—FIXED CONSTRUCTIONS
- E21—EARTH DRILLING; MINING
- E21B—EARTH DRILLING, e.g. DEEP DRILLING; OBTAINING OIL, GAS, WATER, SOLUBLE OR MELTABLE MATERIALS OR A SLURRY OF MINERALS FROM WELLS
- E21B49/00—Testing the nature of borehole walls; Formation testing; Methods or apparatus for obtaining samples of soil or well fluids, specially adapted to earth drilling or wells
Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODSs for compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well, belong to Oil-Gas Field Development Engineering field.PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS provided in an embodiment of the present invention, be primarily based on Fuzzy Set Theory compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is subdivided into it is different classes of, next analyzes the geologic parameter of different classes of horizontal well, relationship between fracturing parameter and the peak averaging daily output, and then the main contral parameter for influencing compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well production is determined, finally, according to the peak averaging daily output of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well and corresponding main contral parameter data, peak averaging daily output prediction model is established using regression analysis, and then the production capacity of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is predicted.The PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS is based on Fuzzy Set Theory, has comprehensively considered geologic(al) factor parameter and fracturing parameter, has made prediction result closer to actual conditions, can be effectively used to evaluation fracturing effect, further improves and Optimum Fracturing arrangement and method for construction.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to Oil-Gas Field Development Engineering field, in particular to a kind of production capacity for compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well
Prediction technique.
Background technique
Compact oil reservoir is to cover sandstone, limestone etc. of the pressure matrix permeability less than or equal to 0.1mD to preserve oil reservoir.Due to densification
Oil reservoir has the characteristics that reservoir is fine and close, pore throat character is complicated, physical property is poor, reservoir pressure coefficient is low, and needs are by level when exploitation
Well fracturing technique is transformed it.And the capability forecasting of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well not only influences fractured horizontal well optimization
Design and evaluation of Fracturing Effect on Compact Sandstone, also will affect the evaluation of economic benefit of pressing crack construction.
In the prior art, it generallys use analytic method and this method, which is, to be predicted to the production capacity of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well
By setting up multiple assumed conditions and physical model corresponding mathematical model is established to oil reservoir, oil gas is described with yield or pressure
Flowing in reservoir, and solve and obtain yield analytical expression, the prediction of yield is carried out by yield analytical expression.
Inventor discovery in the prior art the prior art has at least the following problems:
In actual production, the factor for influencing compact oil reservoir fractured horizontal well's productivity is more, the geology ginseng including each fractured well
Number, pressing crack construction transformation etc., and geologic parameter and fracturing parameter (such as sand amount, liquid measure cannot be comprehensively considered using analytic method
And discharge capacity) influence, and analytic method understands the Dominated Factors of compact oil reservoir fractured horizontal well's productivity also inadequate, uses analytic method
The production capacity of the production capacity and practical compact oil reservoir of predicting compact oil reservoir has larger gap, not can be effectively used to evaluation fracturing effect,
Pressing crack construction scheme is influenced further to improve and optimization.
Summary of the invention
The embodiment of the invention provides a kind of PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODSs for compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well, can solve above-mentioned
Problem.
Specifically, including technical solution below:
Provide a kind of PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS for compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well, comprising the following steps:
Obtain daily output data, geologic parameter data and the fracturing parameter data of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well；
According to the daily output data, the peak averaging daily output of the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is calculated；
According to the peak averaging daily output, point of the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is determined based on Fuzzy Set Theory
Class；
The peak averaging daily output for calculating separately corresponding compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well in every kind of classification is averaged
The average value of value, the average value of the geologic parameter data and the fracturing parameter data；
According to the average value of the peak averaging daily output, the average value and the pressing crack construction of the geologic parameter data
The average value of supplemental characteristic determines the main contral parameter for influencing the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well production；
According to the peak averaging daily output of the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well and the main contral parameter data, based on recurrence
Analytic approach establishes peak averaging daily output prediction model；
According to the peak averaging daily output prediction model, the production capacity of pressure break horizontal well is predicted.
In a kind of possible design, the geologic parameter includes oil reservoir average thickness, porosity, permeability, aqueous full
And degree；
The fracturing parameter includes that be averaged sand amount, single hop of horizontal well length, fractured horizontal well number of segment, single hop is averaged liquid
Amount, total displacement, fractured horizontal well number of clusters.
It is described according to the daily output data in a kind of possible design, calculate the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well
The peak averaging daily output, comprising:
According to the daily output data, the monthly average day in each month after the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is gone into operation is calculated
Yield；
According to the monthly average daily output, the continuous peak value yield that the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is gone into operation early period is determined
Month；
According to the continuous peak value yield month, the peak averaging daily output of the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is calculated.
It is described according to the peak averaging daily output in a kind of possible design, institute is determined based on Fuzzy Set Theory
State the classification of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well, comprising:
According to the peak averaging daily output, determination section [b, a], wherein b indicates the peak averaging daily output most
Small value, a indicate the maximum value of the peak averaging daily output；
The section [b, a] is subjected to several equal parts, and the section after equal part is made to expand setting value to the left and right sides respectively,
Obtain several fuzzy set U being overlapped two-by-two；
If several described fuzzy set U are corresponding to be divided into Ganlei for the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well.
In a kind of possible design, the fuzzy set U are as follows:
Wherein, n is the equal part number in the section [a, b], and j is the serial number of equal by stages, j desirable 1,2,3 ...；E is normal
Number.
In a kind of possible design, the average value according to the peak averaging daily output, the geologic parameter number
According to average value and the fracturing parameter data average value, determining influences the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well production
Main contral parameter, comprising:
The average value of the geologic parameter data and the average value of the fracturing parameter data are subjected to normalizing respectively
Change processing；
The relation curve of y-x is drawn under plane right-angle coordinate, wherein the y is the peak averaging daily output
Average value, the x be the geologic parameter data after normalized average value or the fracturing parameter data
Average value；
In the relation curve for calculating separately the y-x, the slope of the maximum linerar；
According to the size of the slope, the main contral parameter for influencing the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well production is determined.
In a kind of possible design, the main contral parameter include: the oil reservoir average thickness, the horizontal well length,
Be averaged sand amount, the single hop of the fractured horizontal well number of segment, the fractured horizontal well number of clusters, the single hop is averaged liquid measure and described
Total displacement.
Technical solution bring beneficial effect provided in an embodiment of the present invention includes at least:
PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS provided in an embodiment of the present invention is primarily based on Fuzzy Set Theory compact oil reservoir pressure break is horizontal
Well is subdivided into different classes of, next analyzes the geologic parameter of different classes of horizontal well, fracturing parameter and peak averaging day
Relationship between yield, and then the main contral parameter for influencing compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well production has been determined, finally, according to fine and close oil
The peak averaging daily output of hiding pressure break horizontal well and corresponding main contral parameter data, establish peak averaging day using regression analysis
Production Forecast Models, and then the production capacity of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is predicted.The PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS is based on fuzzy set
Rationally opinion, has comprehensively considered geologic(al) factor parameter and fracturing parameter, has made prediction result closer to actual conditions, can be effectively
For evaluating fracturing effect, further improve and Optimum Fracturing arrangement and method for construction.
Detailed description of the invention
To describe the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention more clearly, make required in being described below to embodiment
Attached drawing is briefly described, it should be apparent that, drawings in the following description are only some embodiments of the invention, for
For those of ordinary skill in the art, without creative efforts, it can also be obtained according to these attached drawings other
Attached drawing.
Fig. 1 is a kind of signal of the PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS for compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well provided in an embodiment of the present invention
Figure；
Fig. 2 a is the relationship in the production month and the monthly average daily output of Changqing oilfields block W1 well in the embodiment of the present invention
Figure；
Fig. 2 b is the relationship in the production month and the monthly average daily output of Changqing oilfields block W2 well in the embodiment of the present invention
Figure；
Fig. 3 is the peak averaging daily output of 55 mouthfuls of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal wells of Changqing oilfields block in the embodiment of the present invention
The frequency distribution of amount；
Fig. 4 a is that 55 mouthfuls of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal wells of Changqing oilfields block are divided into 3 classes in the embodiment of the present invention
Distribution map；
Fig. 4 b is that 55 mouthfuls of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal wells of Changqing oilfields block are divided into 4 classes in the embodiment of the present invention
Distribution situation figure；
Fig. 4 c is that 55 mouthfuls of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal wells of Changqing oilfields block are divided into 5 classes in the embodiment of the present invention
Distribution situation figure；
Fig. 5 is that 55 mouthfuls of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal wells of Changqing oilfields block are divided into 32 classes in the embodiment of the present invention
When, the relational graph of horizontal well length and the peak averaging daily output；
Fig. 6 is Fig. 5 Playsization relational graph that treated between horizontal well length and the peak averaging daily output；
Fig. 7 is the schematic diagram that slope is sought on the basis of Fig. 6；
Fig. 8 is the single parameter of 55 mouthfuls of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal wells of Changqing oilfields block in the embodiment of the present invention to peak
It is worth the influence degree schematic diagram of average daily production；
Fig. 9 is the comparison of the peak averaging daily output and the actual peak averaging daily output predicted using the embodiment of the present invention
Figure.
Specific embodiment
To keep technical solution of the present invention and advantage clearer, below in conjunction with attached drawing to embodiment of the present invention make into
One step it is described in detail.Unless otherwise defined, all technical terms used in the embodiment of the present invention all have and art technology
The normally understood identical meaning of personnel.
It should be noted that the daily output gone into operation early period is the important indicator of oil well productivity, evaluation oil can be directly used for
Well capacity.In view of the long well number of compact oil reservoir volume fracturing horizontal well production time is less, for the sample number for increasing analysis
And guarantee the reliability of evaluation of Fracturing Effect on Compact Sandstone analysis, the average day in the continuous peak value yield month of optional water intaking horizontal well operation early period
Yield values --- the peak averaging daily output predicts compact oil reservoir pressure break by the prediction peak averaging daily output as evaluation index
Horizontal well capacity.
The embodiment of the invention provides a kind of PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODSs for compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well, as shown in Figure 1,
The following steps are included:
Step 101, daily output data, geologic parameter data and the fracturing parameter for obtaining compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well
Data；
Step 102, according to daily output data, calculate the peak averaging daily output of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well；
Step 103, according to the peak averaging daily output, point of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is determined based on Fuzzy Set Theory
Class；
Step 104 calculates separately the peak averaging daily output of corresponding compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well in every kind of classification
The average value of average value, the average value of geologic parameter data and fracturing parameter data；
Step 105, according to the average value of the peak averaging daily output, the average value and fracturing parameter of geologic parameter data
The average value of data determines the main contral parameter for influencing compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well production；
Step 106, the peak averaging daily output and main contral parameter data according to compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well, utilize recurrence
Analytic approach establishes peak averaging daily output prediction model；
Step 107, according to peak averaging daily output prediction model, predict the production capacity of pressure break horizontal well.
PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS provided in an embodiment of the present invention is primarily based on Fuzzy Set Theory compact oil reservoir pressure break is horizontal
Well is subdivided into different classes of, next analyzes the geologic parameter of different classes of horizontal well, fracturing parameter and peak averaging day
Relationship between yield, and then the main contral parameter for influencing compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well production has been determined, finally, according to fine and close oil
The peak averaging daily output of hiding pressure break horizontal well and corresponding main contral parameter data, establish peak averaging day using regression analysis
Production Forecast Models, and then the production capacity of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is predicted.The PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS is based on fuzzy set
Rationally opinion, has comprehensively considered geologic(al) factor parameter and fracturing parameter, has made prediction result closer to actual conditions, can be effectively
For evaluating fracturing effect, further improve and Optimum Fracturing arrangement and method for construction.
In addition, using the method complexity of analytic method forecast production, realizing that difficulty is big, in contrast to this, provided using the present invention
Prediction technique it is simple, easy, have stronger replicability, can effectively instruct allocation of well rates.
For step 101, " daily output data, geologic parameter data and the pressure of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well are obtained
Split construction parameter data " refer to daily output data, geologic parameter data and the pressure for obtaining more mouthfuls of horizontal wells gone into operation of certain block
Split construction parameter data.
Above-mentioned data can be obtained by the oil field means of production.More specifically, geologic parameter may include oil reservoir average thickness, hole
Porosity (oil reservoir average pore), permeability (oil reservoir mean permeability), water saturation (oil reservoir be averaged water saturation) etc.；
Fracturing parameter may include that be averaged sand amount (total sand amount/number of segment), single hop of horizontal well length, fractured horizontal well number of segment, single hop is flat
Equal liquid measure (total liquid measure/number of segment), total displacement (volume of the fracturing fluid injected per minute to stratum), fractured horizontal well number of clusters etc..
The peak averaging daily output of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is calculated according to daily output data for step 102；Tool
Body, it may include following steps:
Step 1021, according to daily output data, the monthly average in each month after compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is gone into operation is calculated
The daily output；
According to daily output data, the monthly average daily output in each month after compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is gone into operation can be calculated,
And the monthly average daily output and production can be plotted in plane right-angle coordinate in month, obtain production month and the monthly average daily output
Relational graph, wherein horizontal axis can indicate production month, and the longitudinal axis can indicate the monthly average daily output.With the long celebrating of Ordos Basin
For the W1 well and W2 well of oil field block, relational graph such as Fig. 2 a and Fig. 2 b in obtained production month and the monthly average daily output
It is shown.
Step 1022, according to the monthly average daily output, determine that the continuous peak value that compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is gone into operation early period produces
Measure month；
Step 1023, according to continuous peak value yield month, the peak averaging daily output of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is calculated.
In application, can be according to the monthly average daily output, if determining, compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well operation early yield is biggish
Month is done as continuous peak value yield month, then based on the corresponding average day output value of continuous peak value yield month, it is flat to calculate peak value
The equal daily output.
Illustratively, it can be carried out calculating the peak averaging daily output according to following principle:
(1) in horizontal well producing initial stage, more gentle horizontal well is changed for the monthly average daily output in peak value, it is optional
Take away the average value of continuous 3-5 months monthly average dailys output when beginning to successively decrease as the peak averaging daily output, as shown in Figure 2 a；
(2) in horizontal well producing initial stage, for the biggish horizontal well of monthly average daily output amplitude of variation in peak value, to keep away
Exempt from error and guarantee the reasonability that the peak averaging daily output is chosen, chooses the monthly average daily output and stablize fluctuation model after peak-fall
Enclose the average value of the interior continuous 3-5 months monthly average dailys output as the peak averaging daily output, as shown in Figure 2 b.
For step 103, according to the peak averaging daily output, compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is determined based on Fuzzy Set Theory
Classification；
Fuzzy Set Theory is a kind of method for describing blooming.This method is object to be investigated and reflects its
Fuzzy concept establishes membership function appropriate as certain fuzzy set, right by the related operation and transformation of fuzzy set
Fuzzy object is analyzed.Fuzzy set theory is studied based on fuzzy mathematics in relation to non-precision phenomenon.To compact oil reservoir water
For flat producing well, high-yield well, stripper well are fuzzy concepts, and it is the critical issue for evaluating production effect that how it, which belongs to,
This can be solved the problems, such as by introducing Fuzzy Set Theory.In addition, increasing analysis sample by connecting the fuzzy classification between horizontal well
This number, so as to increase confidence level, but also sorted data show preferable trend.
Specifically, it may include following steps:
Step 1031, according to the peak averaging daily output, determination section [b, a], wherein b indicates the peak averaging daily output
Minimum value, a indicate the maximum value of the peak averaging daily output；
Step 1032, section [b, a] is subjected to several equal parts, and expands the section after equal part to the left and right sides respectively and sets
Definite value obtains several fuzzy set U being overlapped two-by-two；
Step 1033, if several fuzzy sets U is corresponding to be divided into Ganlei for compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well.
Wherein, " setting value " can be configured according to actual needs, should " setting for the section after different equal parts
Value " can be identical numerical value, or different numerical value.
In a kind of possible embodiment, fuzzy set can be made
Wherein, n is the equal part number in section [a, b], and j is the serial number of equal by stages, j desirable 1,2,3 ...；E is constant.
It is understood that in order to ensure including enough horizontal well samples in each equal by stages, so that
Calculated result is more acurrate, and e can be made to take different values within the scope of the different peak averaging dailys output, guarantee comprising horizontal well number compared with
Few equal widened range in by stages is larger, i.e., ensures that each equal by stages are a kind of classification of horizontal well as far as possible.
The frequency distribution of the peak averaging daily output can be first analyzed, is then based on before dividing fuzzy set U based on this
The frequency distribution of the peak averaging daily output determines e value, makes to take in different peak averaging daily output range internal constant e different
Value, to guarantee that widened range is larger on the less equal by stages of Horizontal Well number.
It illustratively, can by taking 55 mouthfuls of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal wells of the Changqing oilfields block of Ordos Basin as an example
The frequency distribution of the peak averaging daily output is analyzed as shown in figure 3, Fig. 3 shows that the peak averaging daily output is higher, well number is fewer, in order to
Guarantee to include more horizontal well samples in the higher fuzzy set U of average daily production, the value that can define constant e is as follows:
The value of 1 constant e of table
After division, if several fuzzy sets U corresponding peak averaging day that compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is divided into Ganlei
Volume range, all horizontal wells of the peak averaging daily output in the range are a kind of horizontal well classification, if in the range
No corresponding horizontal well exists, then does not select the horizontal well classification of range carry out.
In practical application, can define n is different numerical value, that is, corresponds to and horizontal well is divided into n class.Such as Fig. 4 a, Fig. 4 b, Fig. 4 c
It is shown, respectively illustrate the case where above-mentioned 55 mouthfuls of wells are divided into 3 classes, 4 classes, 5 class.55 mouthfuls of wells are pressed peak averaging in Fig. 4 c
For the daily output divides 5 classes, total well number after carrying out fuzzy classification is 88 mouthfuls, wherein stripper well has 23 mouthfuls, and poor well has 21
Mouthful, general well has 21 mouthfuls, and preferable well has 17 mouthfuls, and high-yield well has 6 mouthfuls, so divides, hence it is evident that expand in each fuzzy set U
Sample size, so that analysis result has more reliability.
For step 104, the peak averaging daily output of corresponding compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well in every kind of classification is calculated separately
The average value of the average value of amount, the average value of geologic parameter data and fracturing parameter data；
In above-mentioned PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS, each fuzzy set U corresponds to a kind of classification.It, can root for each classification
According to the peak averaging daily output, geologic parameter data and the pressure of the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well for including in corresponding fuzzy set U
Construction parameter data are split, the peak averaging daily output for seeking corresponding compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well in every kind of classification is averaged
The average value of value, the average value of geologic parameter data and fracturing parameter data.
When pressure break horizontal well is divided into 5 class, being averaged for 5 groups of mutual corresponding peak averaging dailys output can be obtained
The average value of value, the average value of geologic parameter data and fracturing parameter data.
For step 105, according to the average value of the peak averaging daily output, the average value and pressing crack construction of geologic parameter data
The average value of supplemental characteristic determines the main contral parameter for influencing compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well production；
When increasing horizontal well classification number, the average value and ground of the peak averaging daily output in every kind of classification analyzed
The average value of matter supplemental characteristic, the average value of fracturing parameter data relationship will be obvious.Illustratively, by above-mentioned 55 mouthfuls
When horizontal well is divided into 32 class, horizontal well length can be obtained and the relationship of the peak averaging daily output is as shown in Figure 5.Similarly, may be used
The relational graph between other parameters and the peak averaging daily output is determined respectively.According between parameters and the peak averaging daily output
Relational graph, it may be determined that the slope of " the maximum linerar " in each relational graph, and the slope of straight line can indicate each parameter to production
The influence size of amount, so as to determine the main contral parameter for influencing compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well production according to slope.
Specifically, it may include following steps:
Step 1051, the average value of geologic parameter data and the average value of fracturing parameter data are subjected to normalizing respectively
Change processing；
Normalization is a kind of standardized way, i.e., the expression formula that will have dimension turns to nondimensional expression by transformation
Formula becomes scalar, so that the absolute value of physical system numerical value be made to become certain relative value relationship.In embodiments of the present invention, it is
Convenient for being compared between straight slope, to determine main contral parameter, normalized analysis parameter is needed.
It illustratively, can basisParameter is standardized.
Wherein, N is some concrete analysis parameter, such as horizontal well length；NminThe minimum value of parameter is made a concrete analysis of for some,
Such as horizontal well length minimum value；NmaxThe maximum value that parameter is made a concrete analysis of for some, such as horizontal well length maximum value, NnorFor standard
Parameter after change, such as level of standardization well length.
Step 1052, the relation curve of y-x is drawn under plane right-angle coordinate, wherein y is the peak averaging daily output
Average value, x are the average value of the geologic parameter data after normalized or the average value of fracturing parameter data；
Horizontal well length by taking the relationship of above-mentioned horizontal well length and the peak averaging daily output as an example, after standardization
Relationship between the peak averaging daily output is as shown in Figure 6.
Step 1053, in the relation curve for calculating separately y-x, the slope of the maximum linerar；
Slope to seek principle as follows: in the relation curve of y-x, choose one be approximately the maximum linerar straight line,
The value of its slope is sought using linear regression.So-called " the maximum linerar " needs to meet: 1. embodying the variation of data most possibly
Trend；2. the maximum linerar has enough data.As shown in fig. 7, Fig. 7 is to seek showing for slope using linear regression method
It is intended to.
Step 1054, according to the size of slope, the main contral parameter for influencing compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well production is determined.
It is understood that analysis parameter can react the parameter to yield shadow with the slope of peak averaging daily output relational graph
The size of the degree of sound, and the required slope the big, and it is bigger to show that the parameter influences the peak averaging daily output.It successively seeks tiltedly
Parameter can be obtained to the influence degree schematic diagram of the peak averaging daily output, as shown in figure 8, Fig. 8 shows above-mentioned 55 mouthfuls of causes in rate
The parameter of close oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well can show the influence degree schematic diagram of the peak averaging daily output according to the influence degree
It is intended to determine that the main contral parameter for influencing compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well production can be true in a kind of possible embodiment
Determining main contral parameter includes: that oil reservoir average thickness, horizontal well length, fractured horizontal well number of segment, fractured horizontal well number of clusters, single hop are average
Sand amount, single hop are averaged liquid measure and total displacement.
For step 106, according to the peak averaging daily output and main contral parameter data of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well, utilization
Regression analysis establishes peak averaging daily output prediction model；
Regression analysis be on the basis of grasping a large amount of observation data, using mathematical statistics method establish dependent variable with from
Regression relation function expression between variable.In embodiments of the present invention, according to identified main contral parameter and compact oil reservoir
The peak averaging daily output of pressure break horizontal well, is established between the peak averaging daily output and main contral parameter using regression analysis
Regression relation function expression, as peak averaging daily output prediction model.
By taking above-mentioned 55 mouthfuls of wells as an example, according to the peak averaging day of identified main contral parameter and compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well
Peak averaging daily output prediction model can be obtained in yield are as follows:
Wherein: y is the peak averaging daily output (t/d)；x1For oil reservoir average thickness (m)；x2For horizontal well length (m)；x3For
Fractured horizontal well number of segment；x4For fractured horizontal well number of clusters；x5It is averaged sand amount (m for single hop3)；x6It is averaged liquid measure (m for single hop3)；Always
Discharge capacity (m3/min)。
Further, using the peak averaging daily output prediction model, to the block, other horizontal wells are predicted, are obtained
For the peak averaging daily output and actual peak averaging daily output comparison diagram of the prediction of Changqing oilfields block W3-W12 well,
As shown in figure 9, and be 7.6% by calculating evaluation relative error of the predicted value compared with actual value, show pre- by the model
The survey peak averaging daily output is reliable, which can be used in the quick predict peak averaging daily output.
Step 107, according to peak averaging daily output prediction model, predict the production capacity of pressure break horizontal well.
The daily output gone into operation early period is the important indicator of oil well productivity, can be directly used for evaluation oil well productivity.
Further, by the peak averaging daily output to the fine and close grease horizontal wells of 25 mouthfuls of Ordos Basin Changqing oilfields with
The tired relationship produced has done correlation analysis within 4 years, the results showed that the peak averaging daily output and 4 years tired produce have linear well close
Thus system, the goodness of fit illustrate close to 0.9, can predict the production of pressure break horizontal well according to the peak averaging daily output (prediction model)
Energy.
The above is merely for convenience of it will be understood by those skilled in the art that technical solution of the present invention, not to limit
The present invention.All within the spirits and principles of the present invention, any modification, equivalent replacement, improvement and so on should be included in this
Within the protection scope of invention.
Claims (7)
1. a kind of PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS for compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well, which comprises the following steps:
Obtain daily output data, geologic parameter data and the fracturing parameter data of compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well；
According to the daily output data, the peak averaging daily output of the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is calculated；
According to the peak averaging daily output, the classification of the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is determined based on Fuzzy Set Theory；
Calculate separately the average value of the peak averaging daily output of corresponding compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well, institute in every kind of classification
State the average value of geologic parameter data and the average value of the fracturing parameter data；
According to the average value of the peak averaging daily output, the average value and the fracturing parameter of the geologic parameter data
The average value of data determines the main contral parameter for influencing the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well production；
According to the peak averaging daily output of the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well and the main contral parameter data, it is based on regression analysis
Method establishes peak averaging daily output prediction model；
According to the peak averaging daily output prediction model, the production capacity of pressure break horizontal well is predicted.
2. PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS according to claim 1, which is characterized in that the geologic parameter includes the average thickness of oil reservoir
Degree, porosity, permeability, water saturation；
The fracturing parameter include horizontal well length, fractured horizontal well number of segment, single hop be averaged sand amount, single hop be averaged liquid measure,
Total displacement, fractured horizontal well number of clusters.
3. PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS according to claim 1, which is characterized in that it is described according to the daily output data, it calculates
The peak averaging daily output of the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well, comprising:
According to the daily output data, the monthly average daily output in each month after the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is gone into operation is calculated
Amount；
According to the monthly average daily output, the continuous peak value yield moon of the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well operation early period is determined
Part；
According to the continuous peak value yield month, the peak averaging daily output of the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is calculated.
4. PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS according to claim 1, which is characterized in that it is described according to the peak averaging daily output,
The classification of the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well is determined based on Fuzzy Set Theory, comprising:
According to the peak averaging daily output, determination section [b, a], wherein b indicates the minimum of the peak averaging daily output
Value, a indicate the maximum value of the peak averaging daily output；
The section [b, a] is subjected to several equal parts, and the section after equal part is made to expand setting value to the left and right sides respectively, is obtained
Several fuzzy set U being overlapped two-by-two；
If several described fuzzy set U are corresponding to be divided into Ganlei for the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well.
5. PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS according to claim 4, which is characterized in that the fuzzy set U are as follows:
Wherein, n is the equal part number in the section [a, b], and j is the serial number of equal by stages, j desirable 1,2,3 ...；E is constant.
6. PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS according to claim 2, which is characterized in that described according to the peak averaging daily output
The average value of average value, the average value of the geologic parameter data and the fracturing parameter data, determining influences the cause
The main contral parameter of close oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well production, comprising:
Place is normalized in the average value of the average value of the geologic parameter data and the fracturing parameter data respectively
Reason；
The relation curve of y-x is drawn under plane right-angle coordinate, wherein the y is being averaged for the peak averaging daily output
Value, the x be normalized after the average value of the geologic parameter data or being averaged for the fracturing parameter data
Value；
In the relation curve for calculating separately the y-x, the slope of the maximum linerar；
According to the size of the slope, the main contral parameter for influencing the compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well production is determined.
7. PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS according to claim 6, which is characterized in that the main contral parameter includes: that the oil reservoir is flat
Equal thickness, the horizontal well length, the fractured horizontal well number of segment, the fractured horizontal well number of clusters, the single hop be averaged sand amount,
The single hop is averaged liquid measure and the total displacement.
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| PCT/CN2020/081024 WO2020192675A1 (en) | 2019-03-27 | 2020-03-25 | Productivity prediction method for fractured horizontal well in tight oil reservoir |
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| WO2020192675A1 (en) * | 2019-03-27 | 2020-10-01 | 中国石油大学(华东) | Productivity prediction method for fractured horizontal well in tight oil reservoir |
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| US20130075086A1 (en) * | 2011-09-27 | 2013-03-28 | Frank PRESS | Using microseismic activity to facilitate hydrocarbon production in tight sand and shale reservoirs |
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| CN105931125B (en) * | 2016-04-22 | 2019-09-03 | 中国石油天然气股份有限公司 | A kind of more cluster volume fracturing horizontal well production prediction techniques of densification oil section |
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| CN109882163A (en) * | 2019-03-27 | 2019-06-14 | 中国石油大学(华东) | A kind of PRODUCTION FORECASTING METHODS for compact oil reservoir pressure break horizontal well |
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