CN112183995A - Direct-current protection system reliability evaluation method based on inter-zone analytic method and inter-zone entropy weight mixed weighting - Google Patents

Direct-current protection system reliability evaluation method based on inter-zone analytic method and inter-zone entropy weight mixed weighting Download PDF

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CN112183995A
CN112183995A CN202011008701.1A CN202011008701A CN112183995A CN 112183995 A CN112183995 A CN 112183995A CN 202011008701 A CN202011008701 A CN 202011008701A CN 112183995 A CN112183995 A CN 112183995A
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王婷
陈堃
张侃君
叶庞琪
杜镇安
肖繁
张隆恩
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Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Hubei Electric Power Co Ltd
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Abstract

The invention provides a direct current protection system reliability evaluation method based on mixed weighting of an interval analytic hierarchy process and an interval entropy weight, which comprises the following steps: comprehensively evaluating the composition of an index system according to the reliability of the direct current protection system, and constructing an index system layer; classifying the direct current protection system according to different levels and different positions of the defects of the direct current protection system, counting all defect data of each converter station in the past, and setting scores of the levels of the direct current protection system according to the defect data; obtaining index data of the defects of the direct current protection system according to historical data of the defects of the direct current protection system; carrying out an entropy weight method on the index quantity to obtain weights of the three indexes; evaluating the reliability of various devices and the whole system of the DC protection system by using an entropy weight method; and introducing a weight factor, and combining an interval hierarchy analysis method and an interval entropy weight method to obtain index evaluation comprehensive interval weight, so that the reliability evaluation of the DC protection system by an interval hierarchy method and an interval entropy weight method mixed weighting method is performed.

Description

Direct-current protection system reliability evaluation method based on inter-zone analytic method and inter-zone entropy weight mixed weighting
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of direct current protection system reliability research, in particular to a direct current protection system reliability evaluation method based on mixed weighting of an interval analytic hierarchy process and an interval entropy weight.
Background
The direct current protection is the core of the secondary part of the high-voltage direct current transmission system, is the first defense line for safe and reliable operation of the direct current transmission system, and the reliability directly determines the safe operation of direct current transmission equipment and the stable operation of a power grid, so that the reliability of the direct current protection system needs to be evaluated. For the reliability evaluation of the alternating current power grid, a large amount of research has been carried out at home and abroad, and currently, widely applied evaluation methods include a markov model method, a fault tree analysis method, a GO probability analysis method and the like. The reliability evaluation of the direct current protection system is less, and the evaluation method is not intuitive and has poor applicability.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the invention provides a direct current protection system reliability evaluation method based on the mixed weighting of the interval analytic hierarchy process and the interval entropy weight.
The invention aims to be realized by the following technical scheme:
a direct current protection system reliability evaluation method based on mixed weighting of an inter-zone analytic method and an inter-zone entropy weight comprises the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: according to the DC protection system reliability comprehensive evaluation index system composition, constructing an index system hierarchy: the method comprises the steps that a target layer, a criterion layer B and a scheme layer C are compared and scored pairwise, the index layers of the power user equipment are obtained, the interval weight of each layer is obtained through an inter-layer analytic method, a characteristic vector is obtained according to a judgment matrix of the layer B when the scheme layer C is aligned, a total ranking weight of the layers is established, and the total ranking weight of the scheme layer C is obtained;
step two: classifying the direct current protection system according to different levels and different positions of defects of the direct current protection system, counting all defect data of each converter station in the past, setting scores of each level of the direct current protection system according to the defect data, setting the scores as the bottom scores of each element of the direct current protection system, and obtaining the score of the interval hierarchy method of the direct current protection system by combining with the total sorting weight of the scheme layer C;
step three: classifying the direct current protection system according to different levels and different positions of the defects of the direct current protection system, collecting historical data of the defects of the direct current protection system, and obtaining three index data of the defects of the direct current protection system according to the historical data: the component defect-free time rate MTTF, the component mean repair time rate MTTR and the component defect rate EDR;
step four: performing an entropy weight method on the three indexes in the third step to obtain weights of the three indexes, and setting two weight values in the entropy weight method, wherein the numerical value is unchanged after the elements without the defect data in the elements are converted into a standard matrix, and the numerical value is set to be 0.5 after the elements without the defect data in the elements are converted into the standard matrix, so that the score of the entropy weight method of the whole direct current protection system is obtained;
step five: introducing a weight factor theta, combining an interval hierarchy analysis method and an interval entropy weight method to obtain an index evaluation comprehensive interval score w, wherein the comprehensive interval score w changes along with the change of theta, and the calculation formula of the index evaluation comprehensive interval score w is as follows:
w＝θwIAHP+(1-θ)wIEN,0≤θ≤1 (19)
wherein wIAHPGrading by interval hierarchy method obtained in step two, wIENAnd step four obtained in step four, when theta is 1 or 0, the interval hierarchy method and the interval entropy weight method are respectively corresponded.
Further, the specific implementation process of the step one is as follows:
(a) establishing each layer of the DC protection system according to the composition of the DC protection system, and establishing a judgment matrix of an analytic hierarchy process, wherein each layer of the DC protection system is shown in the following table 1, wherein the DC protection system (A)1) Devices, apparatus (B) for the target layerj) The interface board, CT, PT (C) are criterion layersi) Is a scheme layer;
TABLE 1 respective hierarchy of DC protection system
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000021
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000031
(b) According to each level of the direct current protection system, selecting experts to carry out pairwise comparison and scoring on index levels of the power user equipment, carrying out pairwise comparison and scoring on the power user indexes according to a 'interval mark table' in a table 2, wherein scoring results are generally carried out according to a in an intervalijPoint and width mu, wherein the middle point a of the intervalijThe value of (1) is a base number of judgment or an average value of a random variable in a judgment interval scale; width mu is a base a given by the expert according to uncertainty and ambiguity of the judgment after determining a good baseijThe interval variation range of (a);
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000041
TABLE 2 interval ratio Scale Table
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000042
Forming interval number according to the score of the interval proportion scale table
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000043
When index i is more important than index j, i.e. aijWhen not less than 1, i is not equal to j
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000044
When the index j is more important than the index i, i.e. ajiWhen j is not equal to i and is not equal to 1
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000045
(c) Constructing interval judgment matrix A
The selected experts compare and score each index of the same layer with respect to the importance of the index of the previous layer according to an interval proportional scaling method to construct a judgment matrix A, and the corresponding element of the judgment matrix A is aijAs shown in formula (4):
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000051
wherein i is 1, …, n; j is 1, …, n; n is the total number of the single-layer indexes, and the maximum eigenvalue lambda of the judgment matrix A is calculated by utilizing the power methodmaxAnd a feature vector ξ;
(d) consistency check
If the relative consistency CR of the judgment matrix A is less than 0.1, the judgment matrix A is considered to be feasible, and the smaller the CR value is, the better the consistency inspection is; if the CR of the judgment matrix A is not less than 0.1 and does not pass the consistency test, returning to the step (b) to compare two by two again, and reconstructing a qualified judgment matrix A, wherein the calculation of the CR is as follows:
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000052
TABLE 3 degree of freedom index RI
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000053
From A xi ═ lambdamaxwIAHPDetermining weights w of indexes in a hierarchical modelIAHP；
(e) According to tables 4 to 11, each level of the DC protection system is divided into two according to an interval level method, then, experts are selected to compare and score the index levels of the power user equipment, interval weights of each level are obtained by adopting an interval level analysis method, characteristic vectors are obtained according to judgment matrixes of a layer B when a scheme layer C is aligned, a total level sorting weight is established, and a total sorting interval weight of the scheme layer C is obtained; the algorithm of the total sort interval weight of the scheme layer C is shown in table 12:
TABLE 4 DC PROTECTION SYSTEM A1Hierarchy
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000054
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000061
TABLE 5 measurement device B1Hierarchy
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000062
TABLE 6 measurement interface B2Hierarchy
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000063
TABLE 7 hostForm B3Hierarchy
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000064
TABLE 8 device model B4Hierarchy
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000065
TABLE 9 independent form B5Hierarchy
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000066
Watch 10 two-out-of-three device B6Hierarchy
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000071
Meter 11 trip outlet and secondary loop B7Hierarchy
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000072
Table 12 Total sorting weight Algorithm
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000073
Further, the specific implementation process of the step two is as follows:
classifying the direct current protection system according to different levels and different positions of defects of the direct current protection system, counting all defect data of each converter station in the past, setting the score of each type of equipment as 100, and subtracting the data obtained by the ratio as the type of element CiIf this element C is a fraction ofiDefect-free, then the element C is determinediIs 100, thereby obtaining each of the DC protection systemsThe value of each layer is set as the bottom of each element of the direct current protection system, and the solution layer C is combinediObtaining the interval value of the interval hierarchical method of the direct current protection system; when a certain converter station is analyzed, according to the bottom value of the direct current protection system and the defect frequency of the converter station in the previous year, the fault frequency is subjected to division reduction on the basis of bottom division; and similarly, the interval value of each criterion layer is obtained according to the weight of each criterion layer B and the value of each layer of the direct-current protection system, so that the operation quality of various devices can be judged.
Further, the specific implementation process of the step three is as follows:
classifying the direct current protection system according to different levels and different positions of the defects of the direct current protection system in the step one, collecting historical data of the defects of the direct current protection system, and obtaining three index data of the defects of the direct current protection system according to the historical data: the component defect-free time rate MTTF, the component mean repair time rate MTTR and the component defect rate EDR are calculated by the following method:
1) MTTF (maximum time transfer frequency) without defect of element
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000081
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000082
In the formula, TND、TTNORespectively, the non-defective running time and the normal running total time of a certain type of element; n is a radical ofDThe defect times of the type of element in a given time period are taken as the defect times; sigma TNDThe defect-free time sum of various elements is obtained;
2) mean Time To Repair (MTTR) of components
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000083
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000084
In the formula, TAC、TTDMRespectively the average maintenance time and the total maintenance time of certain types of elements; n is a radical ofRThe number of times of repairing the defects of the elements in a given time period; sigma TACThe average maintenance time sum of various components;
3) element defect rate EDR
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000091
In the formula, ND、NTThe defect times of certain type of elements in a given time period and the total defect times of the direct current transmission protection system are respectively.
Further, the specific implementation process of the step four is as follows:
(a) based on the three index quantities in step three, form (x)ij)m×nThe relation matrix (a) is obtained by preprocessing the data to obtain a standard matrixij)m×nM is the number of types of the defect elements, n is the number of the defect indexes, and the index data in the matrix is divided into a forward index, a reverse index and an interval index, wherein the forward index is the better the evaluation value is, the reverse index is the better the evaluation value is, the interval index is the better the evaluation value is closer to the middle part of the interval, and the processing of the index data is as follows:
the forward direction index is consistent with the formula
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000092
The consistency processing formula of the reverse indexes is
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000093
The consistent processing formula of the interval index is
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000094
In the formula, xmaxThe maximum value in the same index data; x is the number ofminThe minimum value in the same index data; x is the number ofmidThe intermediate values in the same type of index data;
(b) and (3) solving the characteristic weight, and solving the characteristic weight of the jth index of the ith equipment according to the standard matrix:
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000101
when P is presentijWhen 0, it makes no sense to calculate the entropy value, so for PijTo correct it[10]Is defined as
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000102
Calculating entropy of jth index
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000103
In the formula: j is 1,2, …, n;
(c) calculating the entropy weight of the jth index
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000104
In the formula: j is 1,2, …, n;
setting two weight values in an entropy weight method, wherein firstly, the numerical value of an element without defect data in the element is unchanged after the element is converted into a standard matrix; secondly, the numerical value of the elements without defect data in the elements is set to be 0.5 after the elements are converted into the standard matrix, because some elements do not collect defect data in the past, the elements have no data, and therefore the numerical value of the elements after the defect conditions of the elements are converted into the standard matrix is set to be 0.5;
(f) weight coefficient of each type of element
According to the two sets of weight values, two sets of weight coefficients are calculated according to the formula (18), and the weight coefficient Z of each type of element of the entropy weight direct current power transmission protection system in the defect dataiThe calculation method is as follows:
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000105
in the formula: i is 1,2, …, m;
(g) calculating a score for an entropy weight method of a DC protection system
And (4) obtaining the weight coefficients of various elements of the two groups of direct current power transmission protection systems in the defect data according to the formula (18), and combining the base scores of the various elements of the direct current protection systems obtained in the step two to obtain the interval score of the entropy weight method of the direct current protection systems.
Furthermore, in the second, fourth and fifth steps, the score is over 85 points, which shows that the system state is excellent; a score of between 70 and 85 indicates a good system status; a score of between 60 and 70, indicating that the system is in condition; a score of 60 or less indicates poor system status.
Furthermore, in the fifth step, the value of theta is 0.5, and the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weight process respectively account for half of the specific gravity.
The method comprehensively summarizes the protection defect conditions of high-voltage direct-current transmission in recent years, based on the defect types, data and evaluation indexes of the converter stations, and by combining the actual conditions of the converter stations, the direct-current protection system of the converter stations and various protection devices are evaluated by adopting an interval analytic hierarchy process and an interval entropy weight mixed weighting method, and according to the scores, which device has a good running state can be seen, so that the method plays a decisive role in improving the reliability of the relay protection device; the method not only can find weak links needing to be improved of the direct current protection system to obtain qualitative and quantitative conclusions, but also can scientifically and reasonably evaluate and analyze the operation conditions of the direct current protection system and various devices according to the method, has good application effect on solving the actual engineering problem, and can ensure that the relay protection capability is fully exerted in actual application.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be further described with reference to specific examples to fully understand the objects, features and effects of the present invention.
In this embodiment, the data is derived from the evaluation of the defect data from the north Hu converter station 2014 1 to 2019 6, and includes 5 converter stations such as Longquan converter station, Jianglin converter station, Tuyan converter station, Yidu converter station and Kudzuvin dam converter station.
The embodiment provides a method for evaluating reliability of a direct current protection system based on mixed weighting of an interval analytic hierarchy process and an interval entropy weight, which comprises the following steps of:
the method comprises the following steps: according to the DC protection system reliability comprehensive evaluation index system composition, constructing an index system hierarchy: and selecting experts to compare and score the index levels of the power user equipment in pairs by using a target level, a criterion level (first level index) and a scheme level (second and third level indexes), obtaining interval weights of all levels by adopting an inter-level analysis method, obtaining a characteristic vector according to a judgment matrix of a level B aligned by a scheme level C, establishing a total ranking weight of the level, and obtaining the total ranking weight of the scheme level C.
(1) Establishing each hierarchy of a DC protection system
Establishing each level of the direct current protection system according to the composition of the direct current protection system, and establishing a judgment matrix of an analytic hierarchy process, wherein each level of the direct current protection system is shown as the following table:
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000121
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000131
(2) DC protection system A1
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000132
Ranking the importance degree: device type independent three-taking-two device measuring interface trip outlet and secondary circuit
The discrimination matrix (interval width of the previous column in the column labeled yellow, the same as below):
1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
2.0000 0.2000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
4.0000 0.1000 3.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
4.0000 0.1000 3.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
4.0000 0.1000 3.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
3.0000 0.3000 2.0000 0.3000 0.5000 0.3000 0.3333 0.2000 0.3333 0.2000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
0.2000 0.3000 0.3000 0.3000 0.2000 0.2500 0.2000 0.2500 0.2000 0.2000 0.3333 0.2000 1.0000 0.0000
the results met the consistency test as follows:
DC protection system A1 Interval low value Interval high value
Measuring apparatus B1 0.0661 0.0687
Measurement interface B2 0.0850 0.0851
Host type B3 0.2207 0.2226
Device type B4 0.2360 0.2387
Independent type B5 0.2355 0.2386
Two-out-of-three device B6 0.1136 0.1208
Trip outlet and secondary circuit B7 0.0339 0.0347
(3) Measuring apparatus B1
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000141
Ranking the importance degree: photoelectric CT (pure light CT) and photoelectric PT (zero flux transformer) are conventional transformers
Discrimination matrix
1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
1.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
1.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
1.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
1.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.0000
The results met the consistency test as follows:
measuring apparatus B1 Interval low value Interval high value
Photoelectric CTC1 0.2008 0.2008
Pure light type CTC2 0.2004 0.2004
Photoelectric PTC3 0.2000 0.2000
Zero flux transformer C4 0.1996 0.1996
Conventional mutual inductor C5 0.1992 0.1992
(4) Measurement interface B2
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000142
Ranking the importance degree: processor board, power supply module, on-off interface board, analog interface board, communication board and case back board
Discrimination matrix
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000143
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000151
The results met the consistency test as follows:
measurement interface B2 Interval low value Interval high value
Processor board C6 0.4182 0.4394
Switching value interface board C7 0.1092 0.1162
Analog quantity interface board C8 0.1086 0.1153
Communication board C9 0.1079 0.1145
Power supply module C10 0.1854 0.1889
Chassis backboard C11 0.0469 0.0496
(5) Host type DC protection system B3
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000152
Ranking the importance degree: CPU board, power module, PCI board and software
Discrimination matrix
1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
0.5000 0.2000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
1.0000 0.1000 2.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
0.3333 0.2000 0.3330 0.1000 0.3330 0.1000 1.0000 0.0000
The results met the consistency test as follows:
host type B3 Interval low value Interval high value
CPU board C12 0.3402 0.3518
PCI board C13 0.2074 0.2123
Power supply module C14 0.3441 0.3477
Software C15 0.0967 0.0998
(6) Device type DC protection system B4
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000153
Ranking the importance degree: processor board, power supply module, on-off interface board, analog interface board, communication board and case back board
Discrimination matrix
1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
0.2500 0.2000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
0.2500 0.2000 1.0000 0.2000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
0.2500 0.2000 1.0000 0.2000 1.0000 0.2000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
0.3333 0.2000 2.0000 0.2000 2.0000 0.2000 2.0000 0.2000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
0.1667 0.2000 0.3333 0.2000 0.3333 0.2000 0.3333 0.2000 0.3333 0.2000 1.0000 0.0000
The results met the consistency test as follows:
device type B4 Interval low value Interval high value
Processor plug-in C16 0.4182 0.4394
Communication plug-in component C17 0.1092 0.1162
Opening-in and opening-out plug-in component C18 0.1086 0.1153
Power supply plug-in component C19 0.1079 0.1145
Chassis backboard C20 0.1854 0.1889
Software C21 0.0469 0.0496
(7) Independent type direct current protection system B5
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000161
Ranking the importance degree: processor board, power module, MMI plug-in, A/D (VFC) plug-in, communication plug-in and AC plug-in software
Discrimination matrix
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000162
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000171
The results met the consistency test as follows:
independent type B5 Interval low value Interval high value
Processor plug-in C22 0.2791 0.3044
Opening-in and opening-out plug-in component C23 0.0954 0.0980
MMI plug-in component C24 0.0937 0.1002
A/D (VFC) plug-in component C25 0.0933 0.0996
Communication plug-in component C26 0.0929 0.0991
AC plug-in C27 0.0924 0.0985
Power supply plug-in component C28 0.1716 0.1722
Software C29 0.0539 0.0557
(8) Two-out-of-three device B6
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000172
Ranking the importance degree: processor board card (independent module) power board card (communication board)
Discrimination matrix
1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
0.3333 0.1500 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
0.3333 0.1500 2.0000 0.1500 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
0.5000 0.2000 1.0000 0.1000 0.5000 0.2000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
1.0000 0.1000 3.0000 0.1000 2.0000 0.1000 2.0000 0.2000 1.0000 0.0000
The results met the consistency test as follows:
two-out-of-three device B6 Interval low value Interval high value
Processor board card C30 0.3222 0.3245
Open-in and open-out board card C31 0.0989 0.1000
Power supply board card C32 0.1672 0.1681
Communication board C33 0.1170 0.1220
Independent module C34 0.2889 0.2913
(9) Trip outlet and secondary circuit B7
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000173
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000181
Ranking the importance degree: switch operation box cable loop or optical fiber loop or communication channel accessory
Discrimination matrix
1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
0.5000 0.1000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
0.5000 0.1000 1.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
0.5000 0.1000 1.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.1000 1.0000 0.0000 0.0000 0.0000
0.3333 0.3000 0.5000 0.2000 0.5000 0.2000 0.5000 0.2000 1.0000 0.0000
The results met the consistency test as follows:
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000182
and obtaining a characteristic vector according to the judgment matrix of the layer B when the scheme layer C is aligned, establishing a hierarchical total sorting weight, and obtaining a total sorting interval weight of the scheme layer C. The algorithm of the total sorting weight of the scheme layer C is as follows:
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000183
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000191
the total sort weight of the scheme layer C is obtained according to the table and the related data as follows:
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000192
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000201
step two: classifying the direct current protection system according to different levels and different positions of the defects of the direct current protection system, counting all defect data of each converter station in the past, setting scores of all levels of the direct current protection system according to the defect data, and combining with a scheme layer CiAnd obtaining the interval value of the interval hierarchical method of the direct current protection system. And obtaining the interval value of each criterion layer according to the weight of each criterion layer B and the value of each layer of the direct current protection system, thereby judging the operation quality of various devices.
The invention is based on the defect data of Hubei converter stations from 1 month to 2019 months in 2014 to carry out evaluation, and the defect data comprises 5 converter stations such as a Longquan converter station, a Jiangling converter station, a Tuoling converter station, a Yidu converter station, a Kuzhou dam converter station and the like, and specific defect information is shown in tables 1 to 6.
Table 1 Longquan convertor station defect information
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000202
TABLE 2 Jiangling converter station Defect information
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000203
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000211
TABLE 3 Tuolin converter station Defect information
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000212
Table 4 defect information for preferably all converter stations
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000213
TABLE 5. Kudzuvine river dam converter station Defect information
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000214
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000221
TABLE 6 Defect information of five converter stations
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000222
And (4) counting all defect data of five convertor stations in Hubei in nearly five years, and calculating the proportion of the defects of each type of equipment to the total defects. As shown in the table below.
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000223
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000231
And then, setting the score of each type of equipment as 100, subtracting the data obtained by percentage as the score of the element, and if the element is not defective, determining the score of the element as 100. Specific scores are shown in the following table.
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000232
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000241
According to the scores of all the elements in the table, the total sorting weight of the sub-criterion layer C is combined to obtain the direct current protection system A1Has a section value of [93.9370,99.1927 ]]。
Similarly, the interval values of various devices are calculated as follows, and the following table shows that the host dc protection system device and the measuring device have lower reliability than other devices and need to pay attention.
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000242
Step three: classifying the direct current protection system according to different levels of the direct current protection system and different positions of the defects, collecting historical data of the defects of the direct current protection system, and obtaining index data of the defects of the direct current protection system according to the historical data, wherein the index data are respectively as follows: a component defect free time rate MTTF, a component mean repair time rate MTTR, and a component defect rate EDR.
Counting all defect data of five convertor stations in Hubei in the last five years, and calculating various index values of each type of equipment by combining the actual operation conditions of the five convertor stations as follows:
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000243
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000251
step four: and carrying out an entropy weight method on the three index quantities to obtain the weights of the three indexes. Since the first two of the three defect indexes are reverse indexes, the smaller the index value is, the better the index value is, the larger the latter index is, the better the index value is. In order to obtain the interval value of the direct current protection system, two weighted values of the entropy weight method are calculated, wherein the value of the zero-defect data element in the element is unchanged after being converted into a standard matrix, and the value of the zero-defect data element in the element is set to be 0.5 after being converted into the standard matrix, so that the interval value of the entropy weight method of the whole direct current protection system is obtained.
The above table data was preprocessed according to the entropy weight method to obtain the standard matrix as shown below.
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000261
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000271
Since the first two of the three defect indexes are reverse indexes, the smaller the index value is, the better the index value is, the larger the latter index is, the better the index value is. In order to obtain the interval value of the direct current protection system, two weighted values of the entropy weight method are calculated, wherein the value of the zero-defect data element in the element is unchanged after being converted into a standard matrix, and the value of the zero-defect data element in the element is set to be 0.5 after being converted into the standard matrix, so that the interval value of the entropy weight method of the whole direct current protection system is obtained.
According to the calculation method of the entropy weight method, the weight of each index is obtained as follows
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000272
The calculated weights for each element are as follows:
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000273
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000281
finally, the interval value of the entropy weight method of the whole direct current protection system is obtained to be [86.1057, 90.8727 ].
For the evaluation of various devices of the direct current protection system, the same method is adopted, the targeted data only contains the respective data of various devices, the data of other devices is not considered, if the devices have no defect data, the operation condition of the devices is determined to be good, the evaluation value is 100, if the devices have only one element, the defect value of other elements of the devices is determined to be 1 percent of the element value, the average maintenance time of the elements is calculated according to 0.5, the operation time of the elements is calculated according to 5 years, the evaluation value of the devices is obtained according to the value, and the interval value of the entropy method of various devices of the direct current protection system is obtained by the calculation of the method is shown in the following table.
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000282
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000291
Step five: in order to take the subjective advantage of the interval hierarchy analysis method and the objective advantage of the interval entropy weight method into consideration, the advantages of the interval hierarchy analysis method and the interval entropy weight method are taken, the weight factor theta is introduced, and the interval hierarchy analysis method and the interval entropy weight method are combined to obtain the index evaluation comprehensive interval weight w. And when theta is 1 or 0, the comprehensive interval weight w respectively corresponds to an interval AHP method and an interval entropy weight method, so that the evaluation of the direct current protection system is obtained, and the direct current protection system is evaluated.
DC protection system A1Has a section value of [93.9370,99.1927 ]]The interval value of the entropy weight method of the direct current protection system is [86.105 ]7,90.8727]Setting theta to be 0.5, and obtaining interval values of [90.0215,95.0327 ] of the direct current protection system]。
The scores of the various devices of the dc protection system are shown in the following table.
Figure RE-GDA0002783794870000292
As can be seen from the above table, the overall reliability of the dc protection system is excellent, but the reliability of the measurement device is lower than that of other devices, and the maintenance is important.
The invention focuses on counting the faults and defect conditions of equipment such as a protection device, a board card, a secondary circuit, an optical CT and the like in a direct current control protection system, comprehensively summarizes the protection defect conditions of high-voltage direct current transmission in recent years, and based on the defect types, data and evaluation indexes of converter stations, the method of mixed weighting of interval analytic hierarchy process and interval entropy weight is adopted to evaluate the direct current protection system of the converter stations and various protection equipment by combining the actual conditions of the converter stations.
The method can not only find weak links needing to be improved of the direct current protection system to obtain qualitative and quantitative conclusions, but also scientifically and reasonably evaluate and analyze the operation conditions of the direct current protection system and various devices according to the method, has good application effect on solving the practical engineering problem, and can ensure that the relay protection capability is fully exerted in practical application. The use effect of the method can be obtained through a specific implementation scheme, and the method provided by the embodiment finds weak links needing to be improved and obtains qualitative and quantitative conclusions, so that the method has the advantages of effectiveness and feasibility. The invention is also suitable for the reliability analysis of the alternating current system.

Claims (7)

1. A direct current protection system reliability evaluation method based on mixed weighting of an inter-zone analytic method and an inter-zone entropy weight is characterized by comprising the following steps:
the method comprises the following steps: according to the DC protection system reliability comprehensive evaluation index system composition, constructing an index system hierarchy: the method comprises the steps that a target layer, a criterion layer B and a scheme layer C are compared and scored pairwise, the index layers of the power user equipment are obtained, the interval weight of each layer is obtained through an inter-layer analytic method, a characteristic vector is obtained according to a judgment matrix of the layer B when the scheme layer C is aligned, a total ranking weight of the layers is established, and the total ranking weight of the scheme layer C is obtained;
step two: classifying the direct current protection system according to different levels and different positions of defects of the direct current protection system, counting all defect data of each converter station in the past, setting scores of each level of the direct current protection system according to the defect data, setting the scores as the bottom scores of each element of the direct current protection system, and obtaining the score of the interval hierarchy method of the direct current protection system by combining with the total sorting weight of the scheme layer C;
step three: classifying the direct current protection system according to different levels and different positions of the defects of the direct current protection system, collecting historical data of the defects of the direct current protection system, and obtaining three index data of the defects of the direct current protection system according to the historical data: the component defect-free time rate MTTF, the component mean repair time rate MTTR and the component defect rate EDR;
step four: performing an entropy weight method on the three indexes in the third step to obtain weights of the three indexes, and setting two weight values in the entropy weight method, wherein the numerical value is unchanged after the elements without the defect data in the elements are converted into a standard matrix, and the numerical value is set to be 0.5 after the elements without the defect data in the elements are converted into the standard matrix, so that the score of the entropy weight method of the whole direct current protection system is obtained;
step five: introducing a weight factor theta, combining an interval hierarchy analysis method and an interval entropy weight method to obtain an index evaluation comprehensive interval score w, wherein the comprehensive interval score w changes along with the change of theta, and the calculation formula of the index evaluation comprehensive interval score w is as follows:
w＝θwIAHP+(1-θ)wIEN,0≤θ≤1 (19)
wherein wIAHPGrading by interval hierarchy method obtained in step two, wIENAnd step four obtained in step four, when theta is 1 or 0, the interval hierarchy method and the interval entropy weight method are respectively corresponded.
2. The method for evaluating the reliability of the direct current protection system based on the mixed weighting of the interval analytic hierarchy process and the interval entropy weight as claimed in claim 1, wherein: the specific implementation process of the first step is as follows:
(a) establishing each layer of the DC protection system according to the composition of the DC protection system, and establishing a judgment matrix of an analytic hierarchy process, wherein each layer of the DC protection system is shown in the following table 1, wherein the DC protection system (A)1) Devices, apparatus (B) for the target layerj) The interface board, CT, PT (C) are criterion layersi) Is a scheme layer;
TABLE 1 respective hierarchy of DC protection system
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000021
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000031
(b) According to each level of the direct current protection system, selecting experts to carry out pairwise comparison and scoring on index levels of the power user equipment, carrying out pairwise comparison and scoring on the power user indexes according to a 'interval mark table' in a table 2, wherein scoring results are generally carried out according to a in an intervalijPoint and width mu, wherein the middle point a of the intervalijThe value of (1) is a base number of judgment or an average value of a random variable in a judgment interval scale; width mu is a base a given by the expert according to uncertainty and ambiguity of the judgment after determining a good baseijThe interval variation range of (a);
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000032
TABLE 2 interval ratio Scale Table
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000033
Forming interval number according to the score of the interval proportion scale table
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000034
When index i is more important than index j, i.e. aijWhen not less than 1, i is not equal to j
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000041
When the index j is more important than the index i, i.e. ajiWhen j is not equal to i and is not equal to 1
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000042
(c) Constructing interval judgment matrix A
The selected experts compare and score each index of the same layer with respect to the importance of the index of the previous layer according to an interval proportional scaling method to construct a judgment matrix A, and the corresponding element of the judgment matrix A is aijAs shown in formula (4):
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000043
wherein i is 1, …, n; j is 1, …, n; n is the total number of the single-layer indexes, and the maximum eigenvalue lambda of the judgment matrix A is calculated by utilizing the power methodmaxAnd a feature vector ξ;
(d) consistency check
If the relative consistency CR of the judgment matrix A is less than 0.1, the judgment matrix A is considered to be feasible, and the smaller the CR value is, the better the consistency inspection is; if the CR of the judgment matrix A is not less than 0.1 and does not pass the consistency test, returning to the step (b) to compare two by two again, and reconstructing a qualified judgment matrix A, wherein the calculation of the CR is as follows:
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000044
TABLE 3 degree of freedom index RI
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000045
From A xi ═ lambdamaxwIAHPDetermining weights w of indexes in a hierarchical modelIAHP；
(e) According to tables 4 to 11, each level of the DC protection system is divided into two according to an interval level method, then, experts are selected to compare and score the index levels of the power user equipment, interval weights of each level are obtained by adopting an interval level analysis method, characteristic vectors are obtained according to judgment matrixes of a layer B when a scheme layer C is aligned, a total level sorting weight is established, and a total sorting interval weight of the scheme layer C is obtained; the algorithm of the total sort interval weight of the scheme layer C is shown in table 12:
TABLE 4 DC PROTECTION SYSTEM A1Hierarchy
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000051
TABLE 5 measurement device B1Hierarchy
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000052
TABLE 6 measurement interface B2Hierarchy
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000053
TABLE 7 host model B3Hierarchy
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000054
TABLE 8 device model B4Hierarchy
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000061
TABLE 9 independent form B5Hierarchy
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000062
Watch 10 two-out-of-three device B6Hierarchy
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000063
Meter 11 trip outlet and secondary loop B7Hierarchy
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000064
Table 12 Total sorting weight Algorithm
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000065
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000071
3. The method for evaluating the reliability of the direct current protection system based on the mixed weighting of the interval hierarchy analysis method and the interval entropy weight as claimed in claim 1 or 2, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the concrete implementation process of the second step is as follows:
classifying the direct current protection system according to different levels and different positions of defects of the direct current protection system, counting all defect data of each converter station in the past, setting the score of each type of equipment as 100, and subtracting the data obtained by the ratio as the type of element CiIf this element C is a fraction ofiDefect-free, then the element C is determinediIs 100, thereby obtaining the score of each layer of the direct current protection system, the score is set as the bottom score of each element of the direct current protection system, and the scheme layer C is combinediObtaining the interval value of the interval hierarchical method of the direct current protection system; when a certain converter station is analyzed, according to the bottom value of the direct current protection system and the defect frequency of the converter station in the previous year, the fault frequency is subjected to division reduction on the basis of bottom division; and similarly, the interval value of each criterion layer is obtained according to the weight of each criterion layer B and the value of each layer of the direct-current protection system, so that the operation quality of various devices can be judged.
4. The method for evaluating the reliability of the direct current protection system based on the mixed weighting of the interval hierarchy analysis method and the interval entropy weight as claimed in claim 1 or 2, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the concrete implementation process of the third step is as follows:
classifying the direct current protection system according to different levels and different positions of the defects of the direct current protection system in the step one, collecting historical data of the defects of the direct current protection system, and obtaining three index data of the defects of the direct current protection system according to the historical data: the component defect-free time rate MTTF, the component mean repair time rate MTTR and the component defect rate EDR are calculated by the following method:
1) MTTF (maximum time transfer frequency) without defect of element
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000081
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000082
In the formula, TND、TTNORespectively, the non-defective running time and the normal running total time of a certain type of element; n is a radical ofDThe defect times of the type of element in a given time period are taken as the defect times; sigma TNDThe defect-free time sum of various elements is obtained;
2) mean Time To Repair (MTTR) of components
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000083
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000084
In the formula, TAC、TTDMRespectively the average maintenance time and the total maintenance time of certain types of elements; n is a radical ofRThe number of times of repairing the defects of the elements in a given time period; sigma TACThe average maintenance time sum of various components;
3) element defect rate EDR
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000085
In the formula, ND、NTThe defect times of certain type of elements in a given time period and the total defect times of the direct current transmission protection system are respectively.
5. The method for evaluating the reliability of the direct current protection system based on the mixed weighting of the interval analytic hierarchy process and the interval entropy weight as claimed in claim 1, wherein: the concrete implementation process of the step four is as follows:
(a) based on the three index quantities in step three, form (x)ij)m×nMoment of relationship ofThe array is first preprocessed to obtain a standard matrix (a)ij)m×nM is the number of types of the defect elements, n is the number of the defect indexes, and the index data in the matrix is divided into a forward index, a reverse index and an interval index, wherein the forward index is the better the evaluation value is, the reverse index is the better the evaluation value is, the interval index is the better the evaluation value is closer to the middle part of the interval, and the processing of the index data is as follows:
the forward direction index is consistent with the formula
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000091
The consistency processing formula of the reverse indexes is
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000092
The consistent processing formula of the interval index is
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000093
In the formula, xmaxThe maximum value in the same index data; x is the number ofminThe minimum value in the same index data; x is the number ofmidThe intermediate values in the same type of index data;
(b) and (3) solving the characteristic weight, and solving the characteristic weight of the jth index of the ith equipment according to the standard matrix:
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000094
when P is presentijWhen 0, it makes no sense to calculate the entropy value, so for PijTo correct it[10]Is defined as
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000095
Calculating entropy of jth index
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000096
In the formula: j is 1,2, …, n;
(c) calculating the entropy weight of the jth index
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000101
In the formula: j is 1,2, …, n;
setting two weight values in an entropy weight method, wherein firstly, the numerical value of an element without defect data in the element is unchanged after the element is converted into a standard matrix; secondly, the numerical value of the elements without defect data in the elements is set to be 0.5 after the elements are converted into the standard matrix, because some elements do not collect defect data in the past, the elements have no data, and therefore the numerical value of the elements after the defect conditions of the elements are converted into the standard matrix is set to be 0.5;
(d) weight coefficient of each type of element
According to the two sets of weight values, two sets of weight coefficients are calculated according to the formula (18), and the weight coefficient Z of each type of element of the entropy weight direct current power transmission protection system in the defect dataiThe calculation method is as follows:
Figure RE-FDA0002783794860000102
in the formula: i is 1,2, …, m;
(e) calculating a score for an entropy weight method of a DC protection system
And (4) obtaining the weight coefficients of various elements of the two groups of direct current power transmission protection systems in the defect data according to the formula (18), and combining the base scores of the various elements of the direct current protection systems obtained in the step two to obtain the interval score of the entropy weight method of the direct current protection systems.
6. The method for evaluating the reliability of the direct current protection system based on the mixed weighting of the interval analytic hierarchy process and the interval entropy weight as claimed in claim 1, wherein: in the second, fourth and fifth steps, the score is over 85 points, which shows that the system state is excellent; a score of between 70 and 85 indicates a good system status; a score of between 60 and 70, indicating that the system is in condition; a score of 60 or less indicates poor system status.
7. The method for evaluating the reliability of the direct current protection system based on the mixed weighting of the interval analytic hierarchy process and the interval entropy weight as claimed in claim 1, wherein: and fifthly, the value of theta is 0.5, and the analytic hierarchy process and the entropy weight process respectively account for half of the specific gravity.
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Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN104933629A (en) * 2015-05-21 2015-09-23 天津大学 Power user equipment evaluation method based on interval level analysis and interval entropy combination
CN107563680A (en) * 2017-10-20 2018-01-09 广东电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 A kind of distribution network reliability evaluation method based on AHP and entropy assessment
CN110580387A (en) * 2019-08-27 2019-12-17 国网湖北省电力有限公司电力科学研究院 Entropy weight method based mixed Weibull reliability evaluation method for direct current protection system

Patent Citations (3)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN104933629A (en) * 2015-05-21 2015-09-23 天津大学 Power user equipment evaluation method based on interval level analysis and interval entropy combination
CN107563680A (en) * 2017-10-20 2018-01-09 广东电网有限责任公司电力科学研究院 A kind of distribution network reliability evaluation method based on AHP and entropy assessment
CN110580387A (en) * 2019-08-27 2019-12-17 国网湖北省电力有限公司电力科学研究院 Entropy weight method based mixed Weibull reliability evaluation method for direct current protection system

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