CN105719048A - Intermediate-voltage distribution operation state fuzzy integrated evaluation method based on principle component analysis method and entropy weight method - Google Patents
Intermediate-voltage distribution operation state fuzzy integrated evaluation method based on principle component analysis method and entropy weight method Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses an intermediate-voltage distribution operation state fuzzy integrated evaluation method based on a principle component analysis method and an entropy weight method. Major information in source data can be reserved by use of the principle component analysis method, a power supply capability, power supply quality and economic indexes are taken as the source data representing an operation state of a distribution network, through solving a feature value and a feature vector of a correlation coefficient matrix, principle components of operation of the distribution network are determined, and an evaluation system with weak correlation yet large envelope information content is formed. Given fuzziness existing in index evaluation, new evaluation indexes are objectively endowed with weights by use of the entropy weight method in the system, and a fuzzy integrated evaluation system of a 10kV distribution network operation mode is finally formed. According to the invention, the fuzziness of the evaluation indexes is taken into consideration, qualitative analysis and quantitative determination are realized, and the method provided by the invention is reasonable and scientific to a certain degree.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to 10kV medium voltage distribution network postitallation evaluation field, be specifically related to the determination of 10kV medium voltage distribution network evaluation of running status index, weight and combined system.
Background technology
In the running of 10kV medium voltage distribution network, in order to compare the superiority-inferiority of the power distribution network method of operation under practical situation, draw optimal operation mode, often the method for operation of different power distribution networks is estimated.By comparative evaluation as a result, it is possible to select optimized operation scheme, so that it is determined that the optimum operating mode of power distribution network.But, general power distribution network assessment draws relative result just for some evaluation indexes, it is impossible to the globality of reflection network, acquired results is relatively narrow.Therefore, for investigating the reasonability of the 10kV medium voltage distribution network method of operation comprehensively, it is necessary to set up one can concentrated expression network condition, coordinate each evaluation index power distribution network run overall evaluation system.For now, the common power distribution network method of operation mainly has two categories below:
1. enabling legislation
1) subjective weighting method.Subjective weighting method mainly adopts the subjective thinking of policymaker to carry out Index Weights, which be characterized in that calculation procedure is relatively easy, there is certain qualitative analysis and theoretical basis, but the relative importance between index cannot be embodied, and easily cause situation about following the trend, lack certain objectivity and reasonability.Main method includes binomial coefficient method, analytic hierarchy process (AHP), expert graded, Delphi method etc..
2) objective weighted model.Dependency relation between objective weighted model Main Basis initial data determines weight by certain mathematical method, and its judged result does not rely on the subjective judgment of people, has stronger mathematical theory foundation.But owing to it is strong to the dependency of data with existing, it is thus possible to the situation that the random error that results in is bigger, and versatility and property of participation poor, it is impossible to embody the main body attention degree for different attribute index.Main method includes entropy assessment, dispersion method, CRITIC method (CriteriaImportanceThoughIntercrieriaCorrelation) etc..
2. comprehensive evaluation
1) Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment.The theory of Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment Main Basis fuzzy mathematics, is converted into quantitative assessment according to degree of membership principle by qualitative evaluation, namely by fuzzy mathematics, the things or object that are subject to many factors restriction is made overall assessment.There is the advantages such as result is clear, systematicness is strong, relation is obscured, is difficult to the problem that quantifies and uncertainty situation has good effect.But it has calculating complex simultaneously, it is determined that the inferior position such as subjective during index weights.
2) analytic hierarchy process (AHP).Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) is considered as a system object of study, the whole factors relevant to decision-making is progressively decomposed into the levels such as target, criterion, scheme, thus carrying out qualitative and quantitative analysis and decision-making on this basis.The method has quantified each factor influence degree to result, and the process that calculates is simple, clear and definite, but its qualitative composition is higher, and the science analyzing result is poor.When index number is more, the statistic of data is big, it is difficult to determine weight, solves the processes such as accurate profile value complex.
3) Evaluation Using Artificial Neural Network method.Evaluation Using Artificial Neural Network method is set up mainly through the self study of neutral net, adaptive ability and strong fault tolerance and is more nearly the qualitative of human thinking's pattern and the comprehensive evaluation model quantitatively combined.The appraisal mentality of expert is given in network with the form of connection weight by the neutral net trained, and it is possible not only to simulation expert and carries out quantitative assessment, and avoids subjective impact and uncertainty accordingly.But owing to it has the non-linear and complexity of height, therefore, it is difficult to analyze the indices of neutral net, and the versatility of constructive system is poor.
4) grey comprehensive assessment method.Grey comprehensive assessment method, mainly with grey correlation theory for foundation, carries out comprehensive assessment based on expert judging, has good evaluation effect for minority evidence, lean information and uncertain problem, and its amount of calculation is only small.But, index weights in the method and resolution ratio etc. need artificial formulation, possess certain subjective impact.
Summary of the invention
For the shortcoming existing for all kinds of assessment modes in current medium-voltage distribution Running State overall merit, the present invention proposes a kind of based on principal component analysis and the medium-voltage distribution network operation Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation System merging objective weight, considers the relatedness between power distribution network operating index and ambiguity comprehensively.PCA is utilized to determine the main constituent describing 10kV power distribution network ruuning situation, and utilize entropy assessment that new evaluation index is carried out Objective Weight, ultimately form the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation System of the medium voltage distribution network method of operation, make evaluation result identification higher, have certain science and theoretical property concurrently.
The technical solution adopted in the present invention comprises the steps:
1) according to the 10kV medium-voltage distribution Running State System of Comprehensive Evaluation built, for each index under each subsystem, from currently running power distribution network, the calculating of collection data obtains each and refers to target value, data acquisition is divided into and repeatedly carrying out, number of times is at least 2 and unsuitable too much, all needs to record each every time and refer to target value after gathering data；
2) according to constructed 10kV medium-voltage distribution Running State Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation System, utilize PCA that original index system is carried out dimensionality reduction, generate one group of new main constituent comprising overwhelming majority quantity of information；
3) according to step 2) obtained each main constituent expression formula calculates the value obtaining different schemes correspondence main constituent, utilizes entropy assessment to calculate the objective weight obtaining each main constituent；
4) according to step 2) and step 3) obtained main constituent expression formula and corresponding objective weight, and step 2) in the value of calculated different schemes each main constituent index corresponding, utilize Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment to calculate the fuzzy overall evaluation vector obtaining each scheme；
5) for step 4) the fuzzy overall evaluation vector of each scheme of gained, utilize maximum membership grade principle relative analysis, finally calculate 10kV medium-voltage distribution Running State comprehensive evaluation result,
Above-mentioned steps 1) described 10kV medium-voltage distribution Running State System of Comprehensive Evaluation, specifically include three subsystems: power supply capacity system, power supply quality system and economic evaluation system.Wherein, the computing formula of each index being subordinate to different subsystem is specific as follows:
A. power supply quality system:
A) feeder line radius of electricity supply qualification rate: this indicator-specific statistics object is the 10kV feeder line in the middle of the whole network or 220kV sheet net, adds up the qualified ratio of its radius of electricity supply.
B. power supply quality assessment
A) distribution transforming on average most high capacity rate: this indicator-specific statistics object is the 10kV distribution transforming in the middle of the whole network or 220kV sheet net, adds up its average most high capacity rate level, namely takes the annual load daily peak load meansigma methods of the highest 25 days.
B) busbar voltage qualification rate: this indicator-specific statistics object is the 10kV medium voltage side bus of each transformer station, adds up its voltage Qualification.
C) distribution transforming power factor qualification rate: this indicator-specific statistics object is the distribution transforming in the middle of the whole network or 220kV sheet net, adds up the Qualification of its low side power factor.
C. economic evaluation system:
A) theoretical loss calculation: this indicator-specific statistics object is distribution transforming and the circuit of the whole network or 220kV sheet net, adds up the theoretical loss calculation level of its total.
sIII-1=100-theoretical loss calculation (5)
Above-mentioned steps 2) described utilize PCA that original evaluation index carries out dimensionality reduction to generate new main constituent, detailed process is as follows:
A. set a p and tie up evaluation index column vector: x=(X1,X2,X3,…,Xp)TAnd n correlated samples.Each sample data comprises one group of concrete evaluation index, is: xi=(xi1,xi2,xi3,…,xip)T, wherein i=1,2 ..., n, j=1,2 ..., p, and n > p.
B. standardization matrix element.Structure sample battle array, utilizes formula (6) that sample array element is standardized conversion:
Wherein, Thus obtaining normalized matrix Zn×p
C. formula (7) is utilized to build correlation matrix Rp×p:
Wherein the calculating formula of element is,
D. the characteristic root of correlation matrix R is solved.Obtain λ1,λ2,…,λp, and wherein there is λ1≥λ2≥…≥λp>=0.The size of eigenvalue reflects the fresh information proportion that associated main constituent comprises.
E. formula (8) is utilized to obtain the eigenvalue of front i main constituent and the proportion of all main constituent sums, thus characterizing the accumulation contribution rate of main constituent.Determine that quantity of information threshold value is 0.85, namely choose the accumulation contribution rate main constituent number more than 0.85.
F. solving equation group Rbi=λibiObtain λ successivelyiCharacteristic of correspondence vector bi, i=1,2 ..., m.When the index variable after standardization is converted into main constituent, formula (9) assemblage characteristic vector is utilized to finally give main constituent.
Wherein, i=1,2 ..., m, i.e. total m main constituent.
Above-mentioned steps 3) the described objective weight utilizing entropy assessment to ask for each main constituent, detailed process is as follows:
A. utilize formula (10) parameter j for the uncertainty of the relative importance of evaluation of programme.
Wherein,
B. utilize formula (11) that formula (10) is standardized, obtain characterizing the entropy of each evaluation index significance level.
Wherein, the entropy span of each evaluation index is: 0≤e (yj)≤1。
C. formula (12) is utilized to build by index entropy e (yi) the weight expression formula that combinesFor the corresponding weight value of evaluation index j, i.e. optimal weights vector
Wherein, More big, show that the significance level of index j is more high.
Above-mentioned steps 4) the described fuzzy overall evaluation utilizing Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment to obtain each scheme vector, detailed process is as follows:
A. agriculture products collection
Adopt step 1) in the main constituent index set M={m of gained1,m2,…,mmFor next step calculating.
B. evaluation collection is determined
Practical situation according to problem is set up and is evaluated collection V={v1,v2,…,vn, choose suitable set and degree of refinement accordingly.
C. fuzzy evaluation collection is built
For a certain fuzzy overall evaluation problem, choose t bit decisions person and be evaluated for each index in index set according to evaluating collection.Initially setting up the expertise schematic diagram about each index different evaluation degree, t bit decisions person understands the significance level of judge index according to self knowledge and fills in a form, and is walking crosswise index m accordinglyiWith stringer opinion rating viHook is drawn at corresponding space place, finally gives the such form of t part.Then each form of evaluating obtained is collected.A certain index is expressed an opinion and is just obtained a FUZZY MAPPING by all policymaker respectivelyThe FUZZY MAPPING of all indexs can form fuzzy overall evaluation matrix H.
D. fuzzy overall evaluation matrix is built
The form collected is carried out data process and obtains fuzzy overall evaluation matrix Hm×n, wherein the i-th row Hi=(hi1,hi2,…,hin) represent for index miSingle index Evaluations matrix, hijFor i-th index to jth assessment grade vjDegree of membership, it is the average of all expertise grades.
E. entropy assessment is adopted to calculate optimal weights vector A.
Utilize step 3) described in entropy assessment ask for the objective weight obtaining each main constituent.
F. the fuzzy overall evaluation vector of scheme is asked for
Formula (13) is utilized to ask for the fuzzy overall evaluation vector obtaining scheme.Wherein, the composite operator utilizedExpression formula such as formula (14).
Above-mentioned steps 5) utilize maximum membership grade principle that scheme is compared evaluation.Namely in last subordinated-degree matrix, aggregative indicator is higher to the degree of membership of certain opinion rating, and that just it to be evaluated is targeted by this opinion rating.
Compared with prior art, the advantage of the present invention is mainly reflected in:
1. setting up System of Comprehensive Evaluation by existing 10kV medium voltage distribution network network structure, evaluation procedure is scientific and reasonable.
2. adopt PCA that original index system is carried out dimension-reduction treatment, relieve the replicated relation between each index, simplified calculating process, and maintained the data message of big proportion.
3. overcome the drawback of index subjective weights in fuzzy overall evaluation, be applied to entropy assessment give main constituent objective weight, increase science and the reasonability of appraisement system.
4. there is certain fuzziness between each index in power distribution network running, use fuzzy overall evaluation to contribute to promoting the identification of evaluation result, there is very strong effectiveness and feasibility.
Accompanying drawing explanation
Fig. 1 is the principle flow chart of the medium-voltage distribution Running State fuzzy overall evaluation based on PCA and entropy assessment.
Fig. 2 is the original index system figure of medium-voltage distribution Running State overall merit.
Detailed description of the invention
Below in conjunction with accompanying drawing, embodiments of the invention are elaborated: the present embodiment is carried out premised on technical solution of the present invention, give detailed embodiment and process, but protection scope of the present invention is not limited to following embodiment.
The present embodiment becomes 8 for having case to one, change 1164, overhead transmission line 23, block switch 26 and interconnection switch 7 on post, whole capacity of distribution transform are about 220.68MVA, and the running status of the 10kV medium voltage distribution network that total line length is about 775.056km carries out overall merit.The idiographic flow evaluated is as shown in Figure 1.
The present embodiment includes: build medium-voltage distribution Running State comprehensive fuzzy evaluation index system, multi collect data parameter value and mean scores, PCA is utilized to build new component target, utilize the objective weight of entropy assessment calculating composition index, utilize Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation System to calculate medium-voltage distribution Running State overall merit vector, utilize maximum membership grade principle to compare and finally give evaluation result.Wherein:
Medium pressure power distribution network running status System of Comprehensive Evaluation includes power supply capacity system, power supply quality system, economy system, as shown in Figure 2.Described power supply capacity system includes feeder line radius of electricity supply qualification rate index, distribution transforming on average most high capacity rate index；Power supply quality system includes busbar voltage qualification rate index, distribution transforming power factor qualification rate index.Economy system includes theoretical loss calculation index.
Described utilize PCA dimensionality reduction to obtain one group of main constituent, calculate process as follows:
Choosing 4 groups of not service datas in the same time, counting statistics obtains each scheme value for iotave evaluation index.
To carry out correlation analysis to data, obtain the correlation matrix Γ between index.
When carrying out the principal component analysis of power distribution network operating index, choose the main constituent more than 0.85 of the accumulation contribution rate as the relatively larger composition of degree of influence.It is characterized in the main constituent characteristic root aspect of output, namely with numerical value 1 for standard, if the value of characteristic root is more than 1, then it represents that the degree of influence of this factor is more than 1 basic variable.Therefore main constituent 1 and main constituent 2 are chosen as the factor of evaluation of next step application in model.The principal component analysis result of output is in Table 1.
The population variance that table 1 principal component analysis is explained
Calculate and try to achieve the composition coefficient vector of main constituent 1 and main constituent 2 respectively
b1=(0.959,0.994,0.383,0.743 ,-0.726)T
b2=(0.256,0.113,0.923,0.664 ,-0.684)T
By above formula and in conjunction with source data, it is possible to calculate the value result of 4 groups of the constituted Novel main component targets of difference ruuning situation correspondence obtaining somewhere 10kV medium voltage distribution network.Use entropy assessment that above-mentioned data are carried out subjective weights process, obtain respective weights and index result of calculation in Table 2.
Table 2 somewhere 10kV power distribution network runs main constituent result of calculation
In Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation System, it is determined that index set is M={m1,m2, and respective settings evaluation integrates as V={v1,v2,v3}={ is fine, generally, poor }.Choose 50 experts and each main constituent index in different schemes is determined opinion rating according to self knowledge, by data are collected calculating, finally give corresponding fuzzy synthetic evaluation matrix Hp×n.In conjunction with the main constituent entropy weight tried to achieve, adoptIt is X that composite operator calculates the fuzzy overall evaluation vector obtaining sampling instant 11=(0.35194,0.24103,0.10103).Meanwhile, sampling instant 2,3,4 carrying out fuzzy overall evaluation respectively, obtained fuzzy overall evaluation vector is respectively as follows: X2=(0.37429,0.23032,0.11231), X3=(0.35926,0.27023,0.19383) and X1=(0.36211).0.22283,0.17783
Can analyzing thus according to the principle of maximum membership degree and draw, the method for operation in sampling moment 2 is optimum, and the moment 4 takes second place, and the moment 3 is following closely, relatively worst for the moment 1.But, 2-4 time data difference is only small, illustrates that its method of operation is perhaps comparatively similar.When medium-voltage distribution network operation, it is possible to this kind of method of operation of reference, reach to meet the effect of safety, reliability, economy.
Claims (6)
1. the fuzzy synthetic appraisement method based on the medium-voltage distribution Running State of PCA and entropy assessment, it is characterized in that considering the indexs such as the reliability relevant to 10kV medium-voltage distribution network operation, safety, economy comprehensively, utilize PCA that original index is carried out dimensionality reduction, entropy assessment is utilized to carry out Objective Weight to generating non-main constituent, reapply Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment and realize the overall merit of the power distribution network method of operation, the evaluation result obtained is more scientific and reasonable, and has extensibility.Described method includes gathering data parameter value, PCA is utilized to determine main constituent content according to eigenvalue principle, entropy assessment is utilized to calculate the objective weight of each main constituent index, utilize Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment application objective weight to calculate the fuzzy overall evaluation vector of different medium-voltage distribution Running State, obtain evaluation result finally according to maximum membership grade principle.
2. the fuzzy synthetic appraisement method of the medium-voltage distribution Running State based on PCA and entropy assessment according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, described collection data parameter value, for each index under each subsystem, from currently running power distribution network, gather data and calculating obtains each and refers to target value, data acquisition is divided into and repeatedly carrying out, number of times be at least 2 and unsuitable too much, all need to record each after gathering data every time and refer to target value.
3. the fuzzy synthetic appraisement method of the medium-voltage distribution Running State based on PCA and entropy assessment according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, the described PCA that utilizes carries out dimensionality reduction to original index, its basic step is: 1) definition evaluation index column vector and correlated samples, constructs sample battle array X；2) sample battle array X is standardized conversion, obtains standardization sample battle array Z；3) calculating obtains correlation matrix R；4) solve the eigenvalue of correlation matrix R, and set accumulation contribution threshold as 0.85, namely choose the quantity of information main constituent more than 0.85；5) expression of each main constituent is calculated.
4. the fuzzy synthetic appraisement method of the medium-voltage distribution Running State based on PCA and entropy assessment according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, the described objective weight utilizing entropy assessment to calculate each index, its basic step is: 1) data according to some main constituent in main constituent index system list raw data matrix H, is standardized process and obtains normalized matrix E；2) entropy of each main constituent is calculated；3) objective weight of each main constituent is calculated.
5. the fuzzy synthetic appraisement method of the medium-voltage distribution Running State based on PCA and entropy assessment according to claim 1, it is characterized in that, the described fuzzy overall evaluation utilizing Field Using Fuzzy Comprehensive Assessment to calculate medium-voltage distribution Running State vector, its basic step is: 1) determine that one group of main constituent that PCA obtains is index set M；2) evaluation collection V is determined according to practical situation；3) the form statistical analysis adopting expert's grading show that index set M is for evaluating the fuzzy overall evaluation matrix H of collection V；4) the principal component weight A that entropy assessment obtains is adopted；5) composite operator is chosenCalculate the fuzzy overall evaluation vector obtaining evaluation of programme.
6. the fuzzy synthetic appraisement method of the medium-voltage distribution Running State based on PCA and entropy assessment according to claim, it is characterised in that utilize maximum membership grade principle to compare the evaluation result of the scheme of calculating.The running status overall merit vector of described medium voltage distribution network is this grade for the evaluation of running status being subordinate to more big then this power distribution network of angle value of certain opinion rating.
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