CN112183887A - Water environment bearing capacity early warning index threshold value and classification standard determination method - Google Patents
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Abstract
A method for determining a threshold value and a classification standard of a watershed water environment bearing capacity early warning index comprises the following steps: (1) constructing a watershed water environment bearing capacity early warning index system; (2) acquiring a distribution function according to a historical data set of the early warning index, and dividing a control boundary by combining a control graph method; (3) collecting and determining early warning index limit values such as international, domestic and drainage basin local standard plans; (4) establishing an index threshold value and a grading standard which are combined by a comprehensive statistical analysis control chart method and a standard specification; and accordingly, determining a watershed water environment bearing capacity early warning index threshold interval and dividing early warning grades. The invention constructs a set of index threshold and grading standard determination method which has universality and can be applied in different industries according to the principle of combining quantification and qualification.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of data processing and index analysis, and particularly relates to a method for determining a water environment bearing capacity early warning index threshold value and a grading standard.
Background
With the development of economy, mathematical statistics techniques such as data analysis and data processing have been gradually applied to various industries. The problems of large data volume, different index data properties and the like can be processed by a mathematical statistical analysis method.
China is a country with uneven water resource distribution and serious shortage of water resource quantity, and meanwhile, the situation of water body pollution is prominent, so that the contradiction between the development of the drainage basin and the natural ecology is increasingly prominent. Particularly, the water environment bearing state of the watershed is closely related to the social and economic development and the natural environment. The method is a key index for evaluating the bearing capacity of the water environment in a region for the maximum water resource development and utilization degree, the maximum pollution load and the like which can be borne by a drainage basin. And if the current and future population, economy, pollutant emission and other index states of the drainage basin are to be evaluated to be correct, accurate monitoring and early warning on the bearing capacity of the water environment are required. However, the prior art lacks a method for determining the early warning index threshold value by combining data analysis and basin development planning.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for determining a water environment bearing capacity early warning index threshold and a grading standard, which can more accurately demarcate the threshold interval of each index in a mode of combining mathematical statistical analysis and local standard specifications so as to enable the research result to be more accurate.
In order to achieve the above object, the method for determining the early warning index threshold value and the classification standard of the bearing capacity of the water environment provided by the invention specifically comprises the following steps:
(1) early warning index system for building watershed water environment bearing capacity
From the perspective of watershed water environment functions and regional development, a multi-target multi-level watershed water environment bearing capacity early warning index system is constructed;
(2) acquiring a distribution function according to a historical data set of the early warning index, and dividing a control boundary by combining a control graph method;
performing statistical analysis according to a historical data set of the early warning index, determining the probability distribution of the historical data set, performing function fitting, and dividing the average value and upper and lower control limits of the early warning index by combining a control chart method;
(3) collecting and determining international, domestic and drainage basin local standards and planned early warning index limit values;
determining the limit value of the early warning index according to some internationally and domestically recognized index values and by combining the local standards of the drainage basin and the target value of the development planning;
(4) establishing an index threshold interval demarcation standard combining a comprehensive statistical analysis method and a standard specification;
and (3) establishing an early warning index threshold value and a grading standard from the quantitative and qualitative aspects by combining the statistical analysis method in the step (2) and the standard planning method in the step (3).
The method comprises the steps that early warning indexes in the early warning index system are selected and combined with the functional requirements of the watershed water environment and the influence of the watershed area economic and social development planning and the like, the indexes comprising four parts of population economy, water resources, the water environment and water ecology are selected comprehensively, and the watershed water environment bearing capacity early warning index system is constructed.
The method is characterized in that the statistical analysis is combined with a control chart method to divide the early warning index mean value and the upper and lower control limits, and the statistical analysis is carried out according to the index historical data set.
The method comprises the steps that the statistical analysis is to perform curve fitting according to a historical data set to obtain a corresponding distribution function, perform short-term prediction according to the distribution function, and divide upper and lower control limits by adopting a control chart method in combination with historical data and prediction data.
The method described above, wherein the control chart method is determined according to two parameters of the mean μ and the standard deviation σ of the sample when dividing the upper and lower control limits, and the index value should fall within the range of μ ± 3 σ with a probability of 99.73%, and this is used as the upper and lower control limits of the index.
The method comprises the step of determining the index limit value by standard planning, wherein the reference limit value of the early warning index is determined according to some international and domestic acknowledged index values and by combining local standards of the drainage basin and a target value of development planning.
In the method, in the step of defining the standard in the index threshold interval, the accurate and reliable index threshold is obtained by combining the result comprehensive analysis of mathematical statistics and standard planning.
The method can realize the determination of the early warning index threshold value by a method of combining data analysis and regional development planning so as to ensure that the result of the threshold value determination is more accurate.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flow chart of a method for determining a water environment bearing capacity early warning index threshold value and a classification standard according to an embodiment of the invention.
Detailed Description
Aiming at the defects that the current index threshold value is determined by methods such as literature summary and expert experience scoring, the invention provides a water environment bearing capacity early warning index threshold value and grading standard determination method, which can more accurately define the threshold value interval of each index in a mode of combining mathematical statistic analysis and local standard specification so as to enable the research result to be more accurate.
The invention provides a method for determining a water environment bearing capacity early warning index threshold value and a classification standard, which comprises the following steps:
the construction method of the watershed water environment bearing capacity early warning index system comprises the following steps: and (4) screening indexes from the perspective of watershed water environment functions and regional development, and constructing a multi-target multi-level watershed water environment bearing capacity early warning index system.
Determining an upper limit and a lower limit of the mathematical statistics method: performing statistical analysis according to collected historical data sets of various indexes, obtaining corresponding distribution functions after curve fitting, performing short-term prediction by using the distribution functions, adopting a control diagram method by combining historical data and predicted data, and taking the index mean value as an index control upper and lower limit, wherein the index mean value is within a range of 3 times of standard deviation with a probability of 99.73% according to a 3 sigma principle;
determining a standard planning index limit value: according to the screened indexes, some internationally and domestically recognized reference values are searched, and meanwhile, the target limit value of the early warning index is determined by combining the locally formulated standard of the drainage basin and the target value of the development planning.
An index threshold value determination step: determining the result of the control limit and the standard planning determination index limit value by combining mathematical statistics, and comprehensively analyzing from the two aspects of quantification and qualification to obtain an accurate and reliable index threshold value determination method;
in the construction step of the watershed water environment bearing capacity early warning index system, the multi-target multi-level watershed water environment bearing capacity early warning index system comprises aspects of population economy, water resources, water environment, water ecology and the like.
The threshold comprises an upper limit threshold and a lower limit threshold, and when the index value is lower than the lower limit of the threshold, the water environment bearing capacity state of the drainage basin is extremely poor; when the index value is higher than the upper limit of the threshold value, the bearing capacity state of the watershed water environment is better; meanwhile, different grades can be divided according to actual research conditions, and the grading standard of the bearing capacity of the water environment is determined.
And refining the threshold interval, and defining different bearing levels so as to accurately determine the change condition of the bearing capacity state of the water environment.
The technical solution and the technical effects of the present invention will become more apparent and more easily understood from the following description of a preferred embodiment in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
When the early warning and evaluation of the bearing capacity of the watershed water environment are carried out, the embodiment of the invention takes the population economy, the water resource, the water environment and the water ecology as main elements. The influence of the population economy, the water environment, the water resource and the water ecology on the bearing capacity of the watershed water environment is comprehensively considered.
(1) Economy of population
The human and economic development conditions indirectly reflect the coordination degree of human activities and natural environment, and various development plans including population development plans, land utilization conditions, industrial structures and the like are referenced and based on the water environment bearing capacity of regions.
(2) Water resource
The water resource amount of the drainage basin is a link for measuring the balance between human society and nature, and has important functions of flood storage and draining, water and soil conservation, ecological conservation and the like, so the evaluation of the water resource bearing state is the representation of the water resource utilization degree of the drainage basin in the development of human activities and economic society.
(3) Water environment
The watershed water environment bearing capacity evaluation is to consider the influence degree of human activities and economic and social development on the whole watershed environment from the perspective of the current water environment pollution situation and the residual environment capacity.
(4) Water ecology
The watershed water ecosystem comprises important ecological functions such as water conservation, water and soil conservation, biological diversity protection, flood regulation and the like, and the sustainable development of the local society must be established on the basis that the ecological system is not damaged and the ecological function is not reduced. Therefore, in the early warning evaluation of the bearing capacity of the watershed water environment, the population economy, the water resource, the water environment and the water ecology are combined to be researched, the influence of all aspects on the bearing capacity is comprehensively considered, and the key early warning index is determined.
After determining the main factors for evaluating the bearing capacity of the watershed water environment and constructing a watershed water environment bearing capacity early warning index system, the threshold value interval of each early warning index needs to be further determined.
Wherein the threshold interval of the watershed water environment bearing capacity early warning index is determined by adopting the following mode:
determining a control limit by a mathematical statistics method: carrying out statistical analysis processing according to collected and selected historical data sets of each index, obtaining a corresponding distribution function after curve fitting, carrying out short-term prediction by using the distribution function, adopting a control diagram method by combining historical data and predicted data, assuming that the index mean value falls within the range of 3 times of standard deviation by 99.73% of probability, taking the index mean value as an index control limit, and if the mean value falls outside the range of +/-3 times of standard deviation, considering that the index mean value exceeds the control limit;
and (3) determining a standard planning index limit value: according to the screened indexes, some international and domestic acknowledged reference values are searched, and meanwhile, the current situation, the recent and the future planning values in the related development planning are combined with the standards established locally in the drainage basin, and the target limit value of the early warning index is comprehensively determined.
An index threshold value determination step: and determining the result of determining the target limit value of the index by combining a mathematical statistics control graph method, a standard plan and the like, and performing comprehensive analysis on the two aspects of quantification and qualification to obtain an accurate and reliable index threshold value determination method.
The threshold comprises an upper limit threshold and a lower limit threshold, and when the index value is lower than the lower limit of the threshold, the water environment bearing capacity state of the drainage basin is poor; when the index value is higher than the upper limit of the threshold value, the bearing capacity state of the watershed water environment is better; the specific threshold interval division can be based on the basic idea and combined with the research area condition to refine the threshold interval and to divide levels with different quantities.
Example (b): the research area is a certain lake and the peripheral area
Please refer to fig. 1.
Firstly, from the perspective of watershed water environment function and regional development, information such as population economy, water resources, water environment and water ecology status situations of a research area is collected, 12 early warning indexes comprising four subsystems of population economy, water resources, water environment and ecology are selected, and a multi-level water environment bearing capacity early warning index system is constructed as shown in table 1.
Table 1: early warning index system for bearing capacity of water environment
Collecting historical data of 12 early warning indexes in 2012 and 2017, performing statistical analysis according to a historical data set, determining probability distribution of the historical data set, performing function fitting, and dividing an early warning index mean value and upper and lower control limits by combining a control graph method; determining the limit value of the early warning index according to some internationally and domestically recognized index values and by combining the local standards of the drainage basin and the target value of the development planning; and finally, comprehensively analyzing the control chart result and the drainage basin standard specification limit value to determine an index threshold value interval. Take two indexes of four subsystems as an example, as shown in table 2.
Table 2: method for determining bearing capacity index threshold value of water environment
Determining a classification standard of research watershed water environment bearing capacity evaluation indexes by adopting a five-level interval, sequentially dividing the classification standard into five levels from low to high, and establishing a classification standard determination method combining a comprehensive statistical analysis control diagram method and a watershed standard planning, wherein the classification standard determination method is shown in a table 3;
table 3: water environment bearing capacity early warning index grading standard
The inventive concept can be implemented in different ways as the technology advances, as will be clear to a person skilled in the art. The embodiments of the invention are not limited to the examples described above, but may vary within the scope of the claims.
The above-mentioned embodiments are intended to illustrate the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention in further detail, and it should be understood that the above-mentioned embodiments are only exemplary embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements and the like made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (7)
1. A method for determining a water environment bearing capacity early warning index threshold value and a classification standard specifically comprises the following steps:
(1) early warning index system for building watershed water environment bearing capacity
From the perspective of watershed water environment functions and regional development, a multi-target multi-level watershed water environment bearing capacity early warning index system is constructed;
(2) acquiring a distribution function according to a historical data set of the early warning index, and dividing a control boundary by combining a control graph method;
performing statistical analysis according to a historical data set of the early warning index, determining the probability distribution of the historical data set, performing function fitting, and dividing the average value and upper and lower control limits of the early warning index by combining a control chart method;
(3) collecting and determining international, domestic and drainage basin local standards and planned early warning index limit values;
determining the limit value of the early warning index according to some internationally and domestically recognized index values and by combining the local standards of the drainage basin and the target value of the development planning;
(4) establishing an index threshold interval demarcation standard combining a comprehensive statistical analysis method and a standard specification;
and (3) establishing an early warning index threshold value and a grading standard from the quantitative and qualitative aspects by combining the statistical analysis method in the step (2) and the standard planning method in the step (3).
2. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the early warning index in the early warning index system is obtained by selecting and combining the functional requirements of the watershed water environment and the influence of the watershed economic and social development planning, comprehensively selecting the indexes comprising four parts of the population economy, the water resource, the water environment and the water ecology, and constructing the watershed water environment bearing capacity early warning index system.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the statistical analysis is performed according to an index historical data set by dividing the early warning index mean and the upper and lower control limits in combination with a control chart method.
4. The method of claim 3, wherein the statistical analysis is curve fitting based on the historical data set to obtain a corresponding distribution function, short term prediction based on the distribution function, and upper and lower control limits are divided by using a control graph method in combination with the historical data and the predicted data.
5. The method of claim 4, wherein the control map method is determined according to two parameters of the mean μ and the standard deviation σ of the sample when dividing the upper and lower control limits, and the index value should fall within the range of μ ± 3 σ with a probability of 99.73%, as the upper and lower control limits of the index.
6. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the standard plan determines the index limit value, and the method determines the reference limit value of the early warning index according to the accepted index value and the target value of the basin local standard and the development plan.
7. The method of claim 1, wherein the criterion defining the index threshold interval is a result comprehensive analysis combining mathematical statistics and standard planning to obtain an accurate and reliable index threshold.
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| CN115203887A (en) * | 2022-05-26 | 2022-10-18 | 中色蓝图科技股份有限公司 | Resource environment bearing capacity temporal model based on service flow engine |
| CN117556941A (en) * | 2023-10-20 | 2024-02-13 | 中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司 | Water demand prediction method and device based on feedback mechanism and electronic equipment |
| CN117556941B (en) * | 2023-10-20 | 2024-05-28 | 中水珠江规划勘测设计有限公司 | Water demand prediction method and device based on feedback mechanism and electronic equipment |
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