CN112182822A - Method and system for predicting, correcting and forecasting icing thickness of power transmission line - Google Patents
Method and system for predicting, correcting and forecasting icing thickness of power transmission line Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method and a system for predicting, correcting and forecasting the icing thickness of a power transmission line, which are characterized in that various observation meteorological element data and corresponding icing thickness data of the power transmission line in continuous time intervals and corresponding predicted meteorological element data are obtained from historical data; constructing a mapping model by using various observation meteorological element data and corresponding prediction meteorological element data; constructing an icing thickness calculation model according to the various observation meteorological element data and the icing thickness data corresponding to the observation meteorological element data; the method comprises the steps of obtaining various predicted meteorological element data of a predicted time of a power transmission line, correcting the various predicted meteorological element data of the predicted time by using the mapping model, inputting the corrected various predicted meteorological element data into the icing thickness calculation model, and calculating the icing thickness of the power transmission line at the predicted time.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of power grid protection, in particular to a method and a system for predicting, correcting and forecasting the icing thickness of a power transmission line.
Background
With the increasing demand for electric power, the transmission lines inevitably need to pass through micro-terrain microclimate areas with extremely complex meteorological conditions. In winter, the micro-terrain areas are easy to cause ice coating on the power transmission line, and the ice coating thickness is several times of that of the ice coating thickness of the terrain flat areas in the range of hundreds of meters. Serious ice coating of the transmission line can cause accidents such as line breakage, tower falling and the like caused by overload of the line, and the safe and stable operation of a power grid is seriously influenced. Due to the horizontal resolution (usually greater than 3km) of the current numerical weather forecast model, the weather condition features of the micro-terrain areas are often averaged by a grid rough in the numerical model, and the ice coating thickness of the power transmission line is difficult to accurately predict.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention provides a method and a system for predicting, correcting and forecasting the icing thickness of a power transmission line, which are used for solving the technical problem that the icing thickness of the power transmission line is difficult to accurately forecast by the existing method for predicting the icing thickness of the power transmission line.
In order to solve the technical problems, the technical scheme provided by the invention is as follows:
a method for predicting, correcting and forecasting icing thickness of a power transmission line comprises the following steps:
acquiring various observation meteorological element data and corresponding icing thickness data of the transmission line at continuous time intervals from historical data, and predicting meteorological element data of the transmission line at the same moment, which correspond to the various observation meteorological element data one by one;
the method comprises the steps that various observation meteorological element data and corresponding prediction meteorological element data at the power transmission line at the same moment are used for constructing a mapping model between the various observation meteorological element data at the same moment and the corresponding types of prediction meteorological element data;
constructing an icing thickness calculation model between various observation meteorological element data and icing thickness data according to various observation meteorological element data and the corresponding icing thickness data at the continuous time interval of the power transmission line;
and acquiring various predicted meteorological element data of the predicted time of the power transmission line, correcting the various predicted meteorological element data of the predicted time by using a mapping model, inputting the corrected various predicted meteorological element data into an icing thickness calculation model, and calculating the icing thickness of the predicted time of the power transmission line.
Preferably, the observed meteorological element data and the predicted meteorological element data each include: air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and air pressure.
Preferably, the mapping model is constructed by a regression statistical method, and the mapping model is as follows:
wherein, Wi ORepresents the ith observed meteorological element value W in any one of observed meteorological element data of air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity and air pressurei YIs represented by the formulai OCorresponding to the type, corresponding to the ith predicted meteorological element value at the moment, i belongs to (1,2, 3.. once, N), and N is the quantity of meteorological element data observed in continuous time intervals; cmRepresenting the mth mapping relation parameter, wherein m belongs to (1,2, 3.. K), and K is the number of the mapping relation parameters and takes the value as an integer larger than 0;representing a mapping relationship.
Preferably, the icing thickness calculation model is constructed by a least square method, and the icing thickness calculation model is as follows:
TK ═ f (t1, U1, D1, RH1, P1, TP, t2, U2, D2, RH2, P2), wherein TK is the thickness of ice coating on the transmission line, t1 is the air temperature on the ground of the transmission line, U1 is the wind speed on the ground of the transmission line, D1 is the wind direction on the ground of the transmission line, RH1 is the relative humidity on the ground of the transmission line, P1 is the air pressure on the ground of the transmission line, TP is the precipitation amount on the transmission line, t2 is the air temperature above the transmission line, U2 is the wind speed above the transmission line, D2 is the wind direction above the transmission line, RH2 is the relative humidity above the transmission line, and P2 is the air pressure above the transmission line.
A computer system comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, the processor implementing the steps of any of the methods described above when executing the computer program.
The invention has the following beneficial effects:
1. the method and the system for predicting, correcting and forecasting the icing thickness of the power transmission line establish a mapping model between a predicted meteorological element value and a corresponding observed meteorological element value based on a coarse resolution numerical weather forecasting mode, apply the mapping model to realize correction and forecasting of the predicted meteorological element value near the power transmission line, and input the established icing thickness calculation model by using the corrected meteorological element prediction value, thereby realizing accurate prediction of the icing thickness of the power transmission line.
In addition to the objects, features and advantages described above, other objects, features and advantages of the present invention are also provided. The present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiments of the invention and, together with the description, serve to explain the invention and not to limit the invention. In the drawings:
fig. 1 is a flow chart of a method for predicting, correcting and forecasting the icing thickness of a power transmission line in the invention.
Detailed Description
The embodiments of the invention will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings, but the invention can be implemented in many different ways as defined and covered by the claims.
The first embodiment is as follows:
as shown in fig. 1, the invention discloses a method for predicting, correcting and forecasting the icing thickness of a power transmission line, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring various observation meteorological element data and corresponding icing thickness data of the transmission line at continuous time intervals from historical data, and predicting meteorological element data of the transmission line at the same moment, which correspond to the various observation meteorological element data one by one;
the method comprises the steps that various observation meteorological element data and corresponding prediction meteorological element data at the power transmission line at the same moment are used for constructing a mapping model between the various observation meteorological element data at the same moment and the corresponding types of prediction meteorological element data;
constructing an icing thickness calculation model between various observation meteorological element data and icing thickness data according to various observation meteorological element data and the corresponding icing thickness data at the continuous time interval of the power transmission line;
and acquiring various predicted meteorological element data of the predicted time of the power transmission line, correcting the various predicted meteorological element data of the predicted time by using a mapping model, inputting the corrected various predicted meteorological element data into an icing thickness calculation model, and calculating the icing thickness of the predicted time of the power transmission line.
Wherein, observe meteorological element data and predict meteorological element data and all include: air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and air pressure.
The mapping model is constructed by adopting a regression statistical method, and is as follows:
wherein, Wi ORepresents the ith observed meteorological element value W in any one of observed meteorological element data of air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity and air pressurei YIs represented by the formulai OCorresponding to the type, corresponding to the ith predicted meteorological element value at the moment, i belongs to (1,2, 3.. once, N), and N is the quantity of meteorological element data observed in continuous time intervals; cmRepresenting the mth mapping relation parameter, wherein m belongs to (1,2, 3.. K), and K is the number of the mapping relation parameters and takes the value as an integer larger than 0;representing a mapping relationship.
The icing thickness calculation model is constructed by adopting a least square method, and comprises the following steps:
TK ═ f (t1, U1, D1, RH1, P1, TP, t2, U2, D2, RH2, P2), wherein TK is the thickness of ice coating on the transmission line, t1 is the air temperature on the ground of the transmission line, U1 is the wind speed on the ground of the transmission line, D1 is the wind direction on the ground of the transmission line, RH1 is the relative humidity on the ground of the transmission line, P1 is the air pressure on the ground of the transmission line, TP is the precipitation amount on the transmission line, t2 is the air temperature above the transmission line, U2 is the wind speed above the transmission line, D2 is the wind direction above the transmission line, RH2 is the relative humidity above the transmission line, and P2 is the air pressure above the transmission line.
In addition, in this embodiment, a computer system is also disclosed, which includes a memory, a processor, and a computer program stored in the memory and executable on the processor, and when the processor executes the computer program, the computer system implements the steps of any of the above methods.
In summary, the method and system for predicting, correcting and forecasting the icing thickness of the power transmission line in the embodiment establish a mapping model between the predicted meteorological element values and the corresponding observed meteorological element values based on the coarse resolution numerical weather forecasting mode, apply the mapping model to realize the correction and forecasting of the predicted meteorological element values near the power transmission line, and input the corrected meteorological element prediction values into the established icing thickness calculation model, thereby realizing the icing thickness prediction of the power transmission line.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention, and various modifications and changes may be made by those skilled in the art. Any modification, equivalent replacement, or improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (5)
1. A method for predicting, correcting and forecasting the icing thickness of a power transmission line is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
acquiring various observation meteorological element data and corresponding icing thickness data of the transmission line in continuous time periods from historical data, and predicting meteorological element data of the transmission line at the same moment, which are in one-to-one correspondence with the various observation meteorological element data;
the method comprises the steps that various observation meteorological element data and corresponding prediction meteorological element data at the power transmission line at the same moment are used for constructing a mapping model between the various observation meteorological element data at the same moment and the corresponding types of prediction meteorological element data;
constructing an icing thickness calculation model between various observation meteorological element data and the icing thickness data according to the various observation meteorological element data and the corresponding icing thickness data at the continuous time interval of the power transmission line;
and acquiring various predicted meteorological element data of the predicted time of the power transmission line, correcting the various predicted meteorological element data of the predicted time by using the mapping model, inputting the corrected various predicted meteorological element data into the icing thickness calculation model, and calculating the icing thickness of the predicted time of the power transmission line.
2. The method for predicting, correcting and forecasting the icing thickness of the power transmission line according to claim 1, wherein the observed meteorological element data and the predicted meteorological element data each include: air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity, and air pressure.
3. The method for predicting, correcting and forecasting the icing thickness of the power transmission line according to claim 2, wherein the mapping model is constructed by a regression statistical method, and the mapping model is as follows:
wherein, Wi ORepresents the ith observed meteorological element value W in any one of observed meteorological element data of air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, wind direction, relative humidity and air pressurei YIs represented by the formulai OCorresponding to the type, corresponding to the ith predicted meteorological element value at the moment, i belongs to (1,2, 3.. multidot.N), and N is the quantity of the meteorological element data observed in the continuous time period; cmRepresenting the mth mapping relation parameter, wherein m belongs to (1,2, 3.. K), and K is the number of the mapping relation parameters and takes the value as an integer larger than 0;representing a mapping relationship.
4. The method for predicting, correcting and forecasting the icing thickness of the power transmission line according to claim 3, wherein the icing thickness calculation model is constructed by a least square method, and the icing thickness calculation model is as follows:
f (t1, U1, D1, RH1, P1, TP, t2, U2, D2, RH2 and P2), wherein the TK is the thickness of ice coating on the power transmission line, the t1 is the air temperature of the ground at the power transmission line, U1 is the wind speed of the ground at the power transmission line, D1 is the wind direction of the ground at the power transmission line, RH1 is the relative humidity of the ground at the power transmission line, P1 is the air pressure of the ground at the power transmission line, TP is the precipitation amount at the power transmission line, t2 is the air temperature of the high altitude at the power transmission line, U2 is the wind speed of the high altitude at the power transmission line, D2 is the wind direction of the high altitude at the power transmission line, RH2 is the relative humidity of the high altitude at the power transmission line, and P2 is the air pressure of the high altitude at the power transmission.
5. A computer system comprising a memory, a processor and a computer program stored on the memory and executable on the processor, wherein the steps of the method of any one of claims 1 to 4 are performed when the computer program is executed by the processor.
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CN113358040A (en) * | 2021-05-14 | 2021-09-07 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司检修试验中心 | Method and device for acquiring icing thickness of power transmission line and computer equipment |
CN113723685A (en) * | 2021-08-31 | 2021-11-30 | 神彩科技股份有限公司 | Method, device, equipment and storage medium for determining hazardous waste generation amount |
CN113821895A (en) * | 2021-09-01 | 2021-12-21 | 南方电网科学研究院有限责任公司 | Construction method and device of power transmission line icing thickness prediction model and storage medium |
CN115508917A (en) * | 2022-11-22 | 2022-12-23 | 中国民用航空局空中交通管理局航空气象中心 | Method, device, equipment and storage medium for forecasting airport meteorological elements |
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CN113821895A (en) * | 2021-09-01 | 2021-12-21 | 南方电网科学研究院有限责任公司 | Construction method and device of power transmission line icing thickness prediction model and storage medium |
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CN115508917A (en) * | 2022-11-22 | 2022-12-23 | 中国民用航空局空中交通管理局航空气象中心 | Method, device, equipment and storage medium for forecasting airport meteorological elements |
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