CN105095670B - Drawing method of electric transmission line icing-thickness growth rate distribution diagram based on continuous freezing rain - Google Patents
Drawing method of electric transmission line icing-thickness growth rate distribution diagram based on continuous freezing rain Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a drawing method of an electric transmission line icing-thickness growth rate distribution diagram based on number of continuous freezing rain days. The method comprises the steps that 1, an icing database is established; 2, the icing-thickness is preliminarily estimated; 3, an icing-thickness optimization calibration model is established, and an icing-thickness calibration value is calculated when historical continuous freezing rain happens; 4, the icing growth rate is calculated; 5, the recurrence interval of the icing growth rate is calculated; 6, interpolation, smoothness and electric system GIS platform display are conducted on calculated results. The drawing method of the electric transmission line icing-thickness growth rate distribution diagram based on the number of the continuous freezing rain days has the advantages that the operability is strong, and the practicability is strong; the applicability is strong, the portability is good, and the icing-thickness growth rate distribution diagram of any region can be drawn; the icing-thickness growth situation of the historical icing process can be reflected scientifically and reasonably, and an important breakthrough point is provided for studying the historical icing growth rule.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to transmission ＆ distribution electro-technical field, more particularly to a kind of powerline ice-covering based on continuous glaze number of days is thick
Degree growth rate distribution drawing drawing method.
Background technology
Powerline ice-covering is one of major casualty of safe and stable operation of bulk power grid.When circuit occurs serious icing
When, particularly at short notice powerline ice-covering rapid growth when, the risk probability that the power grid accident such as tower, broken string occurs is big
It is big to be lifted.
In existing icing distribution map rendering technique, mainly use test formula or empirical equation draw ice covering thickness,
Then the ice covering thickness return period is calculated, the ice covering thickness under different reoccurrence is obtained, and is drawn the sky of designated area ice covering thickness
Between be distributed.However, in electrical network actual moving process, ice covering thickness identical region on the figure of ice formation, its icing growth rate are deposited
It is in very big difference, significantly different for the extent of injury that electrical network is caused.Such as on 2 8th 10,2014 yueyang, hunan mima type microrelief areas
Transmission line of electricity ice covering thickness during sleet generation in domain is increased rapidly, and average ice covering thickness growth rate has reached 5mm/ days, causes
There is tripping operation in transmission line of electricity.Additionally, the ice covering thickness computing formula that ice formation figure is adopted mostly is test formula or empirical equation, formula
Restricted application, it is considered to the actual ice covering thickness growth pattern of electrical network it is less, the application of result of calculation is not strong.
For this reason, it is necessary to carry out the distribution map drafting for electric power line ice-covering thickness rate of rise, it is that electrical network shifts to an earlier date portion
Administration's anti-ice measure, formulates anti-ice decision-making and provides scientific and effective guidance, ensure transmission line safety stable operation.
The content of the invention
The technical problem to be solved in the present invention is：For the deficiency of currently existing technology, propose a kind of based on continuous glaze
The electric power line ice-covering thickness growth rate distribution drawing drawing method of number of days, can provide science for the deployment of electrical network anti-ice using the method
, it is reliable, comprehensively instruct, the method thinking novelty, clear process, accuracy rate are high, practical.
The present invention solution be：
A kind of electric power line ice-covering thickness growth rate distribution drawing drawing method based on continuous glaze number of days, including following step
Suddenly：
(1) set up icing database：
According to the meteorological element data of each weather station of meteorological department, including Ice thickness, history annual winter
Season (2 months next years of December) daily glaze phenomenon observational record, wind speed, daily gross precipitation and continuing precipitation duration, set up meteorological
Icing database；
It is according to the meteorological record data at each artificial observation whistle of power department, existing including electric power line ice-covering thickness, glaze
As observational record, wind speed, daily gross precipitation and continuing precipitation duration, electric icing observation database is set up；
Wherein, not each website has corresponding line ice coating thickness data；
(2) each continuous glaze period of right time of each website (period for glaze phenomenon occurring in continuous many days) according to a preliminary estimate
Accumulation ice covering thickness, website include weather station and the artificial observation whistle；
The meteorological icing database set up by step (1) and electric icing observation statistics of database go out history annual winter
(2 months next years of December) continuous glaze period of right time, and the duration of each continuous glaze period of right time；Using meteorological icing data
Data in storehouse and electric icing observation database, according to ice covering thickness growth formula, calculate 1 year j-th continuous glaze and send out
Value T according to a preliminary estimate of the accumulation ice covering thickness of raw periodij, (i=1,2 ..., n), (j=1,2 ..., m), wherein n is total
History year, m are the number of 1 year continuous glaze period of right time；
(3) determine ice covering thickness regression correction model, and calculate the accumulation ice covering thickness of each continuous glaze period of right time
Corrected value；
(3.1) set up ice covering thickness regression correction modelWherein,Represent 1 year j-th continuous rain
The corrected value of the accumulation ice covering thickness of rime period of right time, a and b are regression parameter；
(3.2) website for having electric power line ice-covering thickness will be recorded as sample, using the transmission of electricity of the sample in step (1)
The value according to a preliminary estimate of the accumulation ice covering thickness of sample in line ice coating thickness and step (2), is calculated using least square method and is returned
Parameter a and b；
(3.3) calculate the corrected value of the accumulation ice covering thickness of 1 year j-th continuous glaze period of right time
(4) calculate maximum average ice covering thickness rate of rise；
(4.1) it is calculated according to step (3.3)With the duration of continuous glaze period of right time, calculate 1 year j-th
Average ice covering thickness rate of rise x of continuous glaze period of right timeij, (i=1,2 ..., n), (j=1,2 ..., m), calculate
Formula is：
(4.2) calculate average ice covering thickness rate of rise x of maximum of 1 yeari, (i=1,2 ..., n), computing formula is：
xi=max (xi1, xi2..., xij..., xim)
(5) the icing growth rate return period calculates；
According to the annual maximum average ice covering thickness rate of rise of calculated single-site in step (4), using general
Rate distribution function, calculates the average ice covering thickness rate of rise value of maximum under single-site different reoccurrence；
The average ice covering thickness rate of rise of maximum of all websites under different reoccurrence is calculated successively；
(6) the result of calculation interpolation of step (5), smooth and power grid GIS are shown；
According to the requirement of display area, determine power grid GIS spacial flex longitude and latitude scope, and determine space interpolation point
Resolution；According to resolution ratio, spatial dimension is divided into into some grids；
The average ice covering thickness of maximum by all websites in step (5) calculated display area under different reoccurrence
Rate of rise, using interpolation method, is interpolated on the mesh point of division, and interpolation result is smoothed, and in electrical network
Image shows are carried out in GIS platform, export distribution map drawing result.
Further, in step (2), ice covering thickness growth formula adopts JONES models, and formula is as follows：
Wherein, ρ1For the density of ice, value 0.8g/cm3, ρ0For the density of water, value 1g/cm3, p is daily total precipitation
Amount, w is Liquid water content, is the function of daily gross precipitation p, w=0.067p0 . 846；V is wind speed, and h is continuing precipitation number of days, t
Represent the t days of continuing precipitation.
Further, in step (3.2), it is contemplated that the otherness of Different Altitude Regions icing, by website according to sea
Classification is pulled out, regression parameter a and b is calculated respectively, is set up the ice covering thickness regression correction model of website in corresponding altitude ranges.
Further, in step (5), the calculating of return period is carried out using Pearson I II type probability-distribution function,
Pearson I II type probability-distribution function is as follows：
Wherein, p (xi) it is probability density function, represent maximum average ice covering thickness rate of rise xiProbability of happening, Γ
(α) it is gamma function,For xiMean value；
Step (4) calculated single-site annual maximum average ice covering thickness rate of rise is brought into formula to work as
In, the average ice covering thickness rate of rise curve of maximum under different probability density is obtained, according to Probability p (xi) with return period T's
RelationObtain the average ice covering thickness rate of rise of maximum under the website different reoccurrence.
Beneficial effect：
The present invention considers the growth pattern of electric power line ice-covering thickness in the case that continuous glaze occurs, and carries out history
The data of ice covering thickness growth rate build, and calculate the return period of ice covering thickness growth rate, and utilize interpolation method, by different weights
Current result of calculation is interpolated on mesh point, according to practical operating experiences, has been carried out local directed complete set to distribution map, has been obtained reality
The strong electric power line ice-covering thickness growth rate distribution map of application.With advantages below：
1st, present invention conditioning is clear, workable, practical, has filled up
The blank of technology processed.
2nd, applicability of the present invention is wide, and transplantability is good, and the ice covering thickness that can draw arbitrary region using the method increases speed
Rate distribution map.
3rd, the computational methods of history icing growth rate proposed by the present invention and bearing calibration, can scientific and reasonable reaction go through
The growth pattern of ice covering thickness in history icing process, provides important break-through point for research history icing increasing law；
4th, the powerline ice-covering growth rate distribution map drawn using the present invention, for scientific and reasonable, economical and effective is disposed
Anti-ice measure, formulates ice-melt decision-making, there is provided important reference frame, reduces the loss that electrical network is caused because of icing.
5th, meteorological element data of the present invention based on each weather station of meteorological department and power department each artificial sight
The meteorological record data at the whistle are surveyed, the data of history ice covering thickness growth rate are built, observation website is more, and precision is higher.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the inventive method flow chart.
Specific embodiment
The present invention is described in more detail below in conjunction with the drawings and specific embodiments.
Embodiment 1：
By taking Hunan as an example, as shown in figure 1, what the Hunan Electric Grid icing growth rate distribution map based on continuous glaze number of days was drawn
Specific implementation process is as follows：
(1) set up icing database.
By Hunan history Ice thickness, (totally 63 years 1951 2013 years) glaze phenomenon observational record, weather station over the years
Point dewatering, air speed data set up Hunan meteorology icing database；2,011 2013 years each icing process Hunan Electric Grids are manually covered
When the icing period of right time of ice observation post record, ice covering thickness, glaze phenomenon observational record, daily gross precipitation, continuing precipitation
Long, wind speed is established as Hunan Electric Grid icing observation database.
(2) the accumulation ice covering thickness of each continuous glaze period of right time of each website according to a preliminary estimate, website include meteorological observation
Stand and the artificial observation whistle；According to the ice covering thickness growth formula based on physical process, the Hunan Electric Grid set up using step (1) is covered
Ice observes database and meteorological icing database, and using JONES model preresearch estimates ice covering thickness, formula is as follows：
Wherein, Tij, (i=1,2 ..., n), (j=1,2 ..., m) be the tired of 1 year j-th continuous glaze period of right time
The value according to a preliminary estimate of product ice covering thickness, n is total history year, and m is the number of 1 year continuous glaze period of right time；ρ1For ice
Density, value 0.8g/cm3, ρ0For the density of water, value 1g/cm3, p be daily gross precipitation, w=0.067p0.846, v is wind
Speed, h are continuing precipitation number of days, and t represents the t days of continuing precipitation.
(3) determine ice covering thickness regression correction model, and calculate the accumulation ice covering thickness of each continuous glaze period of right time
Corrected value；
(3.1) set up ice covering thickness regression correction modelWherein,Represent 1 year j-th continuous rain
The corrected value of the accumulation ice covering thickness of rime period of right time, a and b are regression parameter；
(3.2) website for having electric power line ice-covering thickness will be recorded as sample, using the transmission of electricity of the sample in step (1)
The value according to a preliminary estimate of the accumulation ice covering thickness of sample in line ice coating thickness and step (2), is calculated using least square method and is returned
Parameter a and b；
In view of the otherness of Hunan Different Altitude Regions icing, Hunan area icing is pressed into Zhaohai pull out and be divided into：0‐
400m, 400 800m, 800 1200m, more than 1200m.Set up website ice covering thickness regression correction mould in the range of corresponding height above sea level
Type.Model is as follows：
(3.3) model according to (3.2), calculates the school of the accumulation ice covering thickness of 1 year j-th continuous glaze period of right time
On the occasion of
(4) calculate maximum average ice covering thickness rate of rise；
(4.1) it is calculated according to step (3.3)With the duration of continuous glaze period of right time, calculate 1 year j-th
Average ice covering thickness rate of rise x of continuous glaze period of right timeij, (i=1,2 ..., n), (j=1,2 ..., m), calculate public
Formula is：
(4.2) calculate average ice covering thickness rate of rise x of maximum of 1 yeari, (i=1,2 ..., n), computing formula is：
xi=max (xi1, xi2..., xij..., xim)
(5) the icing growth rate return period calculates.
According to the annual maximum average ice covering thickness rate of rise of calculated single-site in step (4), using general
Rate distribution function, calculates the average ice covering thickness rate of rise value of maximum under single-site different reoccurrence；
Pearson I II type probability-distribution function is as follows：
Wherein, p (xi) it is probability density function, represent maximum average ice covering thickness rate of rise xiProbability of happening, Γ
(α) it is gamma function,For xiMean value；
The annual maximum average ice covering thickness growth rate of history that step (4) is calculated is brought in the middle of formula, obtains difference
The average ice covering thickness rate of rise curve of maximum under probability density, and the website return period is obtained for 15 years, 30 according to curve
Year, 50 years, the average ice covering thickness growth rate of 100 years.By taking Yueyang station in Hunan as an example, the maximum under different reoccurrence is averagely covered
Ice thickness rate of rise is：
The average ice covering thickness rate of rise of maximum under 1 Yueyang station different reoccurrence of table
Corresponding return period calculating is carried out to all websites in Hunan.
(6) result of calculation interpolation, smooth and power network GIS platform show.
Hunan Electric Grid GIS spacial flex latitude scope：24 ° of N, 31 ° of N, longitude spaces scope：108 ° of E, 115 ° of E, setting are empty
Interpolation resolution ratio is 1km.According to resolution ratio, spatial dimension is divided into into the grid of 1km × 1km.Step (5) is calculated
Hunan maximum average ice covering thickness rates of rise of all observation websites under different reoccurrence inside the province, and utilize
Cressman interpolation methods are interpolated on mesh point, and carry out image shows in power network GIS platform, while export distribution map drawing
As a result.
Claims (2)
1. a kind of electric power line ice-covering thickness growth rate based on continuous glaze number of days is distributed drawing drawing method, it is characterised in that
Comprise the following steps：
(1) set up icing database：
According to the meteorological element data of each weather station of meteorological department, including Ice thickness, history annual winter, i.e.,
The daily glaze phenomenon observational record of 2 months annual next years in December of history, wind speed, daily gross precipitation and continuing precipitation duration, build
Vertical meteorology icing database；
According to the meteorological record data at each artificial observation whistle of power department, see including electric power line ice-covering thickness, glaze phenomenon
Record, wind speed, daily gross precipitation and continuing precipitation duration is surveyed, electric icing observation database is set up；
(2) the accumulation ice covering thickness of each continuous glaze period of right time of each website according to a preliminary estimate, website include weather station and
The artificial observation whistle；
The meteorological icing database set up by step (1) and electric icing observation statistics of database go out history annual winter, i.e.,
2 months annual next years in December of history continuous glaze period of right time, and the duration of each continuous glaze period of right time；Covered using meteorology
Data in ice database and electric icing observation database, according to ice covering thickness growth formula, calculate 1 year j-th it is continuous
Value T according to a preliminary estimate of the accumulation ice covering thickness of glaze period of right timeij, (i=1,2 ..., n), (j=1,2 ..., m), wherein n
For total history year, m is the number of 1 year continuous glaze period of right time；
The ice covering thickness growth formula adopts JONES models, and formula is as follows：
Wherein, ρ1For the density of ice, value 0.8g/cm3, ρ0For the density of water, value 1g/cm3, p is daily gross precipitation, and w is
Liquid water content, is the function of daily gross precipitation p, w=0.067p0.846；V is wind speed, and h is continuing precipitation number of days, and t represents company
The t days of continuous precipitation；
(3) determine ice covering thickness regression correction model, and calculate the school of the accumulation ice covering thickness of each continuous glaze period of right time
On the occasion of；
(3.1) set up ice covering thickness regression correction modelWherein,Represent that 1 year j-th continuous glaze is sent out
The corrected value of the accumulation ice covering thickness of raw period, a and b are regression parameter；
(3.2) website for having electric power line ice-covering thickness will be recorded as sample, using the transmission line of electricity of the sample in step (1)
The value according to a preliminary estimate of the accumulation ice covering thickness of sample in ice covering thickness and step (2), calculates regression parameter a using least square method
And b；
(3.3) calculate the corrected value of the accumulation ice covering thickness of 1 year j-th continuous glaze period of right time
(4) calculate maximum average ice covering thickness rate of rise；
(4.1) it is calculated according to step (3.3)With the duration of continuous glaze period of right time, calculate 1 year j-th it is continuous
Average ice covering thickness rate of rise x of glaze period of right timeij, (i=1,2 ..., n), (j=1,2 ..., m), computing formula
For：
(4.2) calculate average ice covering thickness rate of rise x of maximum of 1 yeari, (i=1,2 ..., n), computing formula is：
xi=max (xi1,xi2,…,xij,…,xim)
(5) the icing growth rate return period calculates；
According to the annual maximum average ice covering thickness rate of rise of calculated single-site in step (4), using probability point
Cloth function, calculates the average ice covering thickness rate of rise of maximum under single-site different reoccurrence；
The calculating of return period is carried out using Pearson I II type probability-distribution function, Pearson I II type probability-distribution function is such as
Under：
Wherein, p (xi) it is probability density function, represent maximum average ice covering thickness rate of rise xiProbability of happening, Γ (α) is
Gamma function,For xiMean value；
Step (4) calculated single-site annual maximum average ice covering thickness rate of rise is brought in the middle of formula, is obtained
The average ice covering thickness rate of rise curve of maximum under different probability density, according to Probability p (xi) with the relation of return period TObtain the average ice covering thickness rate of rise of maximum under the website different reoccurrence；
The average ice covering thickness rate of rise of maximum of all websites under different reoccurrence is calculated successively；
(6) the result of calculation interpolation of step (5), smooth and power grid GIS are shown；
According to the requirement of display area, determine power grid GIS spacial flex longitude and latitude scope, and determine that space interpolation is differentiated
Rate；According to resolution ratio, spatial dimension is divided into into some grids；
The average ice covering thickness of maximum by all websites in step (5) calculated display area under different reoccurrence increases
Speed, using interpolation method, is interpolated on the mesh point of division, and interpolation result is smoothed, and flat in power grid GIS
Image shows are carried out on platform, export distribution map drawing result.
2. the electric power line ice-covering thickness growth rate distribution map drafting side based on continuous glaze number of days according to claim 1
Method, it is characterised in that in step (3.2), website is classified according to height above sea level, calculates regression parameter a and b respectively, sets up phase
Answer the ice covering thickness regression correction model of website in altitude ranges.
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| CN110649505A (en) * | 2019-09-09 | 2020-01-03 | 国网北京市电力公司 | Three-dimensional monitoring method and device for icing of power transmission line |
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| CN105808819B (en) * | 2016-02-17 | 2017-12-26 | 南方电网科学研究院有限责任公司 | Calculation method for real-time distribution model of icing of power transmission line |
| CN106595551B (en) * | 2016-12-13 | 2019-01-04 | 武汉大学 | Ice covering thickness detection method in powerline ice-covering image based on deep learning |
| CN107436972B (en) * | 2017-07-07 | 2020-11-06 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Method and system for calculating icing and acceleration change characteristics of power transmission line in special climate |
| CN107464024B (en) * | 2017-08-17 | 2021-01-15 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Overhead transmission line galloping prediction method and system based on icing shape test |
| CN112116132B (en) * | 2020-08-27 | 2023-08-01 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司检修试验中心 | Prediction method for wire icing thickness in complex mountain area |
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| SU556358A1 (en) * | 1975-12-01 | 1977-04-30 | Московский институт инженеров сельскохозяйственного производства им.В.П.Горячкина | Device for measuring and recording ice loads on power lines |
| CN101672667A (en) * | 2008-09-10 | 2010-03-17 | 华东电力试验研究院有限公司 | Method for forecasting wire icing of transmission line |
| CN104462660B (en) * | 2014-11-14 | 2018-04-27 | 贵州电力试验研究院 | A kind of field Transmission Line in Winter ice covering thickness distribution core method |
| CN104636601B (en) * | 2015-01-05 | 2017-09-15 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司 | A kind of electric power line ice-covering thickness forecasting procedure for introducing dynamic deicing processes |
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