CN105095670A - Drawing method of electric transmission line icing-thickness growth rate distribution diagram based on number of continuous freezing rain days - Google Patents
Drawing method of electric transmission line icing-thickness growth rate distribution diagram based on number of continuous freezing rain days Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention provides a drawing method of an electric transmission line icing-thickness growth rate distribution diagram based on number of continuous freezing rain days. The method comprises the steps that 1, an icing database is established; 2, the icing-thickness is preliminarily estimated; 3, an icing-thickness optimization calibration model is established, and an icing-thickness calibration value is calculated when historical continuous freezing rain happens; 4, the icing growth rate is calculated; 5, the recurrence interval of the icing growth rate is calculated; 6, interpolation, smoothness and electric system GIS platform display are conducted on calculated results. The drawing method of the electric transmission line icing-thickness growth rate distribution diagram based on the number of the continuous freezing rain days has the advantages that the operability is strong, and the practicability is strong; the applicability is strong, the portability is good, and the icing-thickness growth rate distribution diagram of any region can be drawn; the icing-thickness growth situation of the historical icing process can be reflected scientifically and reasonably, and an important breakthrough point is provided for studying the historical icing growth rule.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of power transmission and distribution, and particularly relates to a method for drawing a distribution map of the ice coating thickness growth rate of a power transmission line based on the number of continuous rimes days.
Background
Icing of a power transmission line is one of main disasters for safe and stable operation of a large power grid. When the line is seriously coated with ice, especially when the ice coating of the power transmission line is rapidly increased in a short time, the risk probability of power grid accidents such as tower falling, line breaking and the like is greatly improved.
In the existing technology for drawing the icing distribution map, the icing thickness is obtained mainly by using a test formula or an empirical formula, then the icing thickness reappearing period is calculated, the icing thickness under different reappearing periods is obtained, and the spatial distribution of the icing thickness of a specified area is drawn. However, in the actual operation process of the power grid, the ice coating growth speed of the areas with the same ice thickness on the ice area map is greatly different, and the damage degree to the power grid is obviously different. For example, in 2014, the icing thickness of the power transmission line in the area of the Yueyang micro-terrain in Hunan in 8-10 days in 2 months, and the average icing thickness growth rate reaches 5 mm/day, so that the power transmission line is tripped. In addition, most of the icing thickness calculation formulas adopted by the ice area map are experimental formulas or empirical formulas, the application range of the formulas is limited, the situation that the actual icing thickness of the power grid is increased is considered to be less, and the applicability of the calculation result is not strong.
Therefore, a distribution diagram for the ice coating thickness growth rate of the power transmission line needs to be drawn, so that scientific and effective guidance is provided for deploying ice-resisting measures in advance for a power grid and making ice-resisting decisions, and the safe and stable operation of the power transmission line is guaranteed.
Disclosure of Invention
The technical problem to be solved by the invention is as follows: aiming at the defects of the prior art, the method for drawing the distribution map of the ice coating thickness growth rate of the power transmission line based on the number of continuous rime days is provided, scientific, reliable and comprehensive guidance can be provided for ice-resistant deployment of a power grid by using the method, and the method is novel in thought, clear in flow, high in accuracy and strong in practicability.
The solution of the invention is:
a method for drawing a distribution map of the ice coating thickness growth rate of a power transmission line based on the number of continuous rimes days comprises the following steps:
(1) establishing an icing database:
establishing a weather icing database according to weather element data of each weather observation station of a weather department, wherein the weather element data comprises the ice coating thickness of an electric wire, observation records of the daily rime phenomenon in winter (12 months-2 months next year), wind speed, daily total precipitation and continuous precipitation duration;
establishing an electric power icing observation database according to meteorological record data of each manual observation whistle of an electric power department, wherein the meteorological record data comprise the icing thickness of a power transmission line, the rime phenomenon observation record, the wind speed, the total daily precipitation and the continuous precipitation duration;
wherein not every site has corresponding line icing thickness data;
(2) preliminarily estimating the accumulated ice coating thickness of each continuous rime occurrence time period (namely the time period of the rime phenomenon occurring for continuous multiple days) of each station, wherein the station comprises a weather observation station and an artificial observation whistle;
counting out through the meteorological icing database and the electric power icing observation database established in the step (1)The period of continuous rime occurrence in winter (12 months-2 months of the next year) and the duration of each period of continuous rime occurrence in the history each year; calculating a preliminary estimate T of the accumulated ice coating thickness of the jth continuous rime occurrence period of the ith year according to an ice coating thickness growth formula by using data in a weather ice coating database and a power ice coating observation databaseij(i 1, 2.. times, n), (j 1, 2.. times, m), wherein n is the total historical years and m is the number of continuous rime occurrence periods in the ith year;
(3) determining an ice coating thickness regression correction model, and calculating a correction value of accumulated ice coating thickness of each continuous rime occurrence period;
(3.1) establishing an icing thickness regression correction modelWherein,a correction value representing the accumulated ice coating thickness of the jth continuous rime occurrence period in the ith year, wherein a and b are regression parameters;
(3.2) taking the site recorded with the icing thickness of the power transmission line as a sample, and calculating regression parameters a and b by using the initial estimation values of the icing thickness of the power transmission line of the sample in the step (1) and the accumulated icing thickness of the sample in the step (2) by adopting a least square method;
(3.3) calculating a correction value of the accumulated ice coating thickness of the jth continuous rime occurrence period of the ith year
(4) Calculating the average ice coating growth rate;
(4.1) calculated according to the step (3.3)And the duration of the continuous rime occurrence period, and calculating the average ice coating growth rate x of the jth continuous rime occurrence period in the ith yearij(i 1, 2.. times, n), (j 1, 2.. times, m), the calculation formula is:
(4.2) calculating the maximum average icing thickness growth rate x for year ii(i ═ 1, 2.. times, n), the calculation formula is:
xi＝max(xi1,xi2,…,xij,…,xim)
(5) calculating the icing growth rate reappearing period;
calculating the ice coating thickness growth rate values of the single site in different reappearance periods by utilizing a probability distribution function according to the annual maximum average ice coating thickness growth rate of the single site calculated in the step (4);
sequentially calculating the average ice coating thickness growth rate of all the sites in different reappearance periods;
(6) interpolating and smoothing the calculation result obtained in the step (5) and displaying the calculation result in the power grid GIS;
determining the latitude and longitude ranges of the power grid GIS display space according to the requirements of the display area, and determining the spatial interpolation resolution; according to the resolution, equally dividing the space range into a plurality of grids;
and (5) interpolating the average ice coating growth rate of all the sites in the display area obtained by calculation in the step (5) in different reappearance periods to the divided grid points by using an interpolation method, smoothing interpolation results, displaying images on a power grid GIS platform, and outputting a distribution diagram drawing result.
Further, in the step (2), a JONES model is adopted as an ice coating thickness increasing formula, and the formula is as follows:
where ρ is1The density of ice is 0.8g/cm3，ρ0The density of water is 1g/cm3P is the total daily precipitation, w is the liquid water content, and is a function of the total daily precipitation p, w is 0.067p0.846(ii) a v is wind speed, h isContinuous precipitation days.
Further, in the step (3.2), the stations are classified according to the altitude in consideration of differences of icing in different altitude areas, regression parameters a and b are respectively calculated, and an icing thickness regression correction model of the stations in a corresponding altitude range is established.
Further, in the step (5), the recurrence period is calculated by using a pearson-type III probability distribution function as follows:
wherein, p (x)i) The maximum average icing thickness growth rate x is expressed as a function of probability densityiIs (a) a gamma function,is xiAverage value of (d);
the maximum ice coating growth rate of the single station per year calculated in the step (4) is brought into a formula to obtain ice coating thickness growth rate curves under different probability densities, and the ice coating thickness growth rate curves are obtained according to the probability p (x)i) Relation to the recurrence period TThe average ice accretion rate of the ice coating at different reoccurrence periods of the station was obtained.
Has the advantages that:
the method considers the growth condition of the icing thickness of the power transmission line under the condition of continuous rime, constructs data of the historical icing thickness growth rate, calculates the recurrence period of the icing thickness growth rate, interpolates the calculation results of different recurrence periods onto grid points by using an interpolation method, and locally adjusts the distribution diagram according to actual operation experience to obtain the distribution diagram of the icing thickness growth rate of the power transmission line with strong actual applicability. Has the following advantages:
1. the method has the advantages of clear conditioning, strong operability and strong practicability, and fills the blank that no ice coating growth rate distribution diagram drawing technology exists at present.
2. The method has wide applicability and good portability, and can be used for drawing the icing thickness growth rate distribution map of any region.
3. The calculation method and the correction method of the historical icing growth rate can scientifically and reasonably reflect the growth condition of the icing thickness in the historical icing process, and provide an important breakthrough point for researching the historical icing growth rule;
4. the distribution diagram of the icing growth rate of the power transmission line drawn by the invention provides an important reference for scientifically, reasonably, economically and effectively deploying anti-icing measures and making ice-melting decisions, and reduces the loss of the power grid caused by icing.
5. The method is based on meteorological element data of each meteorological observation station of the meteorological department and meteorological record data of each artificial observation post of the power department, and the data of the historical icing thickness increase rate is constructed, so that the observation stations are multiple, and the precision is higher.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the method of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention will be described in more detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and embodiments.
Example 1:
taking Hunan as an example, as shown in FIG. 1, the specific implementation process drawn by the Hunan power grid icing growth rate distribution diagram based on the number of days of rime is as follows:
(1) and establishing an icing database.
Establishing a Hunan meteorological icing database by observing and recording the ice coating thickness of the historical electric wire in Hunan, the rime phenomenon in the past years (63 years in 1951 and 2013), precipitation at meteorological stations and wind speed data; the icing occurrence time period, the icing thickness, the rime phenomenon observation record, the daily total precipitation amount, the continuous precipitation duration and the wind speed recorded by the manual icing observation whistle of the power grid in Hunan province in the process of icing every time in 2011-plus 2013 are established as an icing observation database of the power grid in Hunan province.
(2) Preliminarily estimating the accumulated ice coating thickness of each continuous rime occurrence period of each station, wherein the stations comprise a weather observation station and an artificial observation whistle; according to an icing thickness increasing formula based on a physical process, the JONES model is adopted to preliminarily estimate the icing thickness by utilizing the Hunan power grid icing observation database and the meteorological icing database established in the step (1), and the formula is as follows:
wherein, Tij(i 1, 2.. times, n), (j 1, 2.. times, m) is a preliminary estimation value of the accumulated ice coating thickness of the j-th continuous rime occurrence period in the ith year, n is the total historical year, and m is the number of the i-th continuous rime occurrence period; rho1The density of ice is 0.8g/cm3，ρ0The density of water is 1g/cm3P is total daily precipitation, w is 0.067p0.846V is wind speed, and h is continuous precipitation day.
(3) Determining an ice coating thickness regression correction model, and calculating a correction value of accumulated ice coating thickness of each continuous rime occurrence period;
(3.1) establishing an icing thickness regression correction modelWherein,a correction value representing the accumulated ice coating thickness of the jth continuous rime occurrence period in the ith year, wherein a and b are regression parameters;
(3.2) taking the site recorded with the icing thickness of the power transmission line as a sample, and calculating regression parameters a and b by using the initial estimation values of the icing thickness of the power transmission line of the sample in the step (1) and the accumulated icing thickness of the sample in the step (2) by adopting a least square method;
considering the difference of ice coating in different altitudes of Hunan, the icing point in Hunan area is divided into the following parts according to the altitude: 0-400 m, 400-800 m, 800-1200 m, and more than 1200 m. And establishing a regression correction model of the station icing thickness in the range of the corresponding altitude. The model is as follows:
(3.3) calculating a correction value of the accumulated ice coating thickness of the jth continuous rime occurrence period in the ith year according to the model in (3.2)(4) Calculating the average ice coating growth rate;
(4.1) calculated according to the step (3.3)And the duration of the continuous rime occurrence period, and calculating the average ice coating growth rate x of the jth continuous rime occurrence period in the ith yearij(i 1, 2.. times, n), (j 1, 2.. times, m), the calculation formula is:
(4.2) calculating the maximum average icing thickness growth rate x for year ii(i ═ 1, 2.. times, n), the calculation formula is:
xi＝max(xi1,xi2,…,xij,…,xim)
(5) and calculating the ice coating growth rate reappearing period.
Calculating the ice coating thickness growth rate values of the single site in different reappearance periods by utilizing a probability distribution function according to the annual maximum average ice coating thickness growth rate of the single site calculated in the step (4);
the pearson-type III probability distribution function is as follows:
wherein, p (x)i) The maximum average icing thickness growth rate x is expressed as a function of probability densityiIs (a) a gamma function,is xiAverage value of (d);
and (4) substituting the historical maximum ice coating growth rate per year calculated in the step (4) into a formula to obtain ice coating thickness growth rate curves under different probability densities, and obtaining average ice coating thickness growth rates of the site with the recurrence periods of 15 years, 30 years, 50 years and 100 years according to the curves. Taking the Yueyang station in Hunan as an example, the ice coating thickness growth rate in different reappearance periods is as follows:
TABLE 1 growth rate of icing thickness at different reproduction periods of Yueyang station
| Frequency of | Meet once in 15 years | Meet once in 30 years | Meet one meeting in 50 years | Meet every 100 years |
| Icing growth rate (mm/day) | 3.5 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 5.5 |
And performing corresponding reappearance period calculation on all the sites in Hunan.
(6) And (5) interpolation and smoothing of the calculation result and display of a power grid GIS platform.
And the Hunan power grid GIS shows the spatial latitude range: 24 ° N-31 ° N, longitude space range: 108E-115E, and setting the spatial interpolation resolution to be 1 km. The spatial range is equally divided into a grid of 1km x 1km, depending on the resolution. And (4) interpolating the icing thickness growth rate of all observation sites in Hunan province in different reappearance periods obtained by the calculation in the step (5) to a grid point by using a creatan interpolation method, displaying images on a power grid GIS platform, and outputting a distribution diagram drawing result.
Claims (4)
1. A method for drawing a distribution map of the ice coating thickness growth rate of a power transmission line based on the number of continuous rimes days is characterized by comprising the following steps:
(1) establishing an icing database:
establishing a weather icing database according to weather element data of each weather observation station of a weather department, wherein the weather element data comprises the ice coating thickness of an electric wire, observation records of the daily rime phenomenon in winter (12 months-2 months next year), wind speed, daily total precipitation and continuous precipitation duration;
establishing an electric power icing observation database according to meteorological record data of each manual observation whistle of an electric power department, wherein the meteorological record data comprise the icing thickness of a power transmission line, the rime phenomenon observation record, the wind speed, the total daily precipitation and the continuous precipitation duration;
(2) preliminarily estimating the accumulated ice coating thickness of each continuous rime occurrence period of each station, wherein the stations comprise a weather observation station and an artificial observation whistle;
counting the historical continuous rime occurrence time period in winter (12 months-next 2 months) every year and the time length of each continuous rime occurrence time period through the weather icing database and the electric power icing observation database established in the step (1); calculating a preliminary estimate T of the accumulated ice coating thickness of the jth continuous rime occurrence period of the ith year according to an ice coating thickness growth formula by using data in a weather ice coating database and a power ice coating observation databaseij(i 1, 2.. times, n), (j 1, 2.. times, m), wherein n is the total historical years and m is the number of continuous rime occurrence periods in the ith year;
(3) determining an ice coating thickness regression correction model, and calculating a correction value of accumulated ice coating thickness of each continuous rime occurrence period;
(3.1) establishing an icing thickness regression correction modelWherein,a correction value representing the accumulated ice coating thickness of the jth continuous rime occurrence period in the ith year, wherein a and b are regression parameters;
(3.2) taking the site recorded with the icing thickness of the power transmission line as a sample, and calculating regression parameters a and b by using the initial estimation values of the icing thickness of the power transmission line of the sample in the step (1) and the accumulated icing thickness of the sample in the step (2) by adopting a least square method;
(3.3) calculating a correction value of the accumulated ice coating thickness of the jth continuous rime occurrence period of the ith year
(4) Calculating the average ice coating growth rate;
(4.1) calculated according to the step (3.3)And the duration of the continuous rime occurrence period, and calculating the average ice coating growth rate x of the jth continuous rime occurrence period in the ith yearij(i 1, 2.. times, n), (j 1, 2.. times, m), the calculation formula is:
(4.2) calculating the maximum average icing thickness growth rate x for year ii(i ═ 1, 2.. times, n), the calculation formula is:
xi＝max(xi1,xi2,…,xij,…,xim)
(5) calculating the icing growth rate reappearing period;
calculating the ice coating thickness growth rate values of the single site in different reappearance periods by utilizing a probability distribution function according to the annual maximum average ice coating thickness growth rate of the single site calculated in the step (4);
sequentially calculating the average ice coating thickness growth rate of all the sites in different reappearance periods;
(6) interpolating and smoothing the calculation result obtained in the step (5) and displaying the calculation result in the power grid GIS;
determining the latitude and longitude ranges of the power grid GIS display space according to the requirements of the display area, and determining the spatial interpolation resolution; according to the resolution, equally dividing the space range into a plurality of grids;
and (5) interpolating the average ice coating growth rate of all the sites in the display area obtained by calculation in the step (5) in different reappearance periods to the divided grid points by using an interpolation method, smoothing interpolation results, displaying images on a power grid GIS platform, and outputting a distribution diagram drawing result.
2. The method for drawing the distribution map of the ice coating thickness growth rate of the power transmission line based on the number of continuous rimes days according to claim 1, wherein in the step (2), a JONES model is adopted as an ice coating thickness growth formula, and the formula is as follows:
where ρ is1Is iceDensity of 0.8g/cm3，ρ0The density of water is 1g/cm3P is the total daily precipitation, w is the liquid water content, and is a function of the total daily precipitation p, w is 0.067p0.846(ii) a v is wind speed and h is continuous precipitation day.
3. The method for drawing the distribution map of the ice coating thickness growth rate of the power transmission line based on the number of continuous rime days according to claim 2, wherein in the step (3.2), the stations are classified according to the altitude, regression parameters a and b are respectively calculated, and a regression correction model of the ice coating thickness of the stations in the corresponding altitude range is established.
4. The method for drawing the distribution map of the growth rate of the ice coating thickness of the power transmission line based on the number of days of continuous rime according to any one of claims 1 to 3, wherein in the step (5), the calculation of the recurrence period is performed by using a Pearson-III type probability distribution function, which is as follows:
wherein, p (x)i) The maximum average icing thickness growth rate x is expressed as a function of probability densityiIs (a) a gamma function,is xiAverage value of (d);
the maximum ice coating growth rate of the single station per year calculated in the step (4) is brought into a formula to obtain ice coating thickness growth rate curves under different probability densities, and the ice coating thickness growth rate curves are obtained according to the probability p (x)i) Relation to the recurrence period TThe average ice accretion rate of the ice coating at different reoccurrence periods of the station was obtained.
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| CN105808819A (en) * | 2016-02-17 | 2016-07-27 | 南方电网科学研究院有限责任公司 | Calculation method for real-time distribution model of icing of power transmission line |
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| CN107436972A (en) * | 2017-07-07 | 2017-12-05 | 国网湖南省电力公司 | Powerline ice-covering speedup variation characteristic computational methods and system under special climate |
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| CN112116132A (en) * | 2020-08-27 | 2020-12-22 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司检修试验中心 | Method for predicting conductor icing thickness in complex mountain environment |
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Cited By (9)
| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN105808819A (en) * | 2016-02-17 | 2016-07-27 | 南方电网科学研究院有限责任公司 | Calculation method for real-time distribution model of icing of power transmission line |
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| CN106595551A (en) * | 2016-12-13 | 2017-04-26 | 武汉大学 | Icing thickness detection method for power transmission line icing image based on deep learning |
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| CN107436972A (en) * | 2017-07-07 | 2017-12-05 | 国网湖南省电力公司 | Powerline ice-covering speedup variation characteristic computational methods and system under special climate |
| CN107436972B (en) * | 2017-07-07 | 2020-11-06 | 国网湖南省电力有限公司 | Method and system for calculating icing and acceleration change characteristics of power transmission line in special climate |
| CN107464024A (en) * | 2017-08-17 | 2017-12-12 | 国网湖南省电力公司 | Overhead transmission line galloping Forecasting Methodology and system based on the experiment of icing shape |
| CN112116132A (en) * | 2020-08-27 | 2020-12-22 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司检修试验中心 | Method for predicting conductor icing thickness in complex mountain environment |
| CN112116132B (en) * | 2020-08-27 | 2023-08-01 | 中国南方电网有限责任公司超高压输电公司检修试验中心 | Prediction method for wire icing thickness in complex mountain area |
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