CN112131794A - Hydraulic structure multi-effect optimization prediction and visualization method based on LSTM network - Google Patents

Hydraulic structure multi-effect optimization prediction and visualization method based on LSTM network Download PDF

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CN112131794A
CN112131794A CN202011020208.1A CN202011020208A CN112131794A CN 112131794 A CN112131794 A CN 112131794A CN 202011020208 A CN202011020208 A CN 202011020208A CN 112131794 A CN112131794 A CN 112131794A
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李明超
任秋兵
司文
李明昊
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Tianjin University
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    • GPHYSICS
    • G06COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
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    • G06N3/006Artificial life, i.e. computing arrangements simulating life based on simulated virtual individual or collective life forms, e.g. social simulations or particle swarm optimisation [PSO]
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Abstract

A hydraulic structure multi-effect optimization prediction and visualization method based on an LSTM network comprises the following steps: obtaining prototype observation data; preprocessing the prototype observation data, and dividing a preprocessed data set into a training set, a verification set and a test set; constructing an LSTM prediction model, namely an LSTM network, by utilizing the training set, the verification set and the test set; carrying out hyper-parameter debugging on the LSTM network so as to optimize an LSTM algorithm; carrying out extension prediction on the LSTM prediction model by utilizing a direct multi-step prediction method; and (3) performing visual representation on the LSTM network correlation learning by adopting a t-SNE technology, namely completing the multi-effect optimization prediction and visualization of the hydraulic structure based on the LSTM network. The invention provides a new idea for the safety monitoring method of the hydraulic structure and lays a research foundation for deep learning, popularization and application.

Description

Hydraulic structure multi-effect optimization prediction and visualization method based on LSTM network
Technical Field
The invention relates to a hydraulic structure safety monitoring method, in particular to a hydraulic structure multi-effect optimization prediction and visualization method based on an LSTM network.
Background
In order to achieve the purposes of flood control, power generation, irrigation, water supply and the like, different types of hydraulic buildings are required to be built to control and allocate water flow, such as water retaining buildings, water delivery buildings, renovation buildings and the like. The structural safety is the premise that the building plays a regulating function, and the safety management provides guarantee for the normal operation of the building, particularly for long-term safety monitoring. Various instruments are arranged at key positions of a hydraulic structure, and the working performance of the hydraulic structure is comprehensively reflected from different dimensions by monitoring deformation, seepage and other effect quantities. According to prototype observation data, a multi-effect quantity mathematical monitoring model is constructed by using methods such as statistics, machine learning and the like, and important changes of the structural performance of the building can be mastered and predicted in time, so that scientific basis is provided for evaluating the safety condition of the building and finding out abnormal signs of the building.
The conventional hydraulic building safety monitoring model is roughly classified into a statistical model, a deterministic model and a hybrid model according to different construction methods. At the end of the last century, artificial intelligence technology has been involved and the development of industrial applications has been rapid. Wu, for example, firstly applies modeling methods such as an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and a Support Vector Machine (SVM) to the safety state analysis of the hydraulic buildings. Then, modeling and predicting different effect quantities by utilizing a machine learning algorithm is always a research hotspot in the field of safety monitoring of hydraulic buildings. At present, water conservancy informatization construction focuses on upgrading and transforming monitoring instruments and information integration systems, and research and innovation of data analysis methods are less concerned. Although shallow learning algorithms such as ANN and SVM are greatly improved in nonlinear information extraction compared with statistical models, monitoring requirements are still difficult to meet in some scenarios. Deep learning is a breakthrough in ANN development, and the advantages of the deep learning in the aspect of implicit information mining are obvious because the deep learning utilizes a complex structure or multiple nonlinear transformation processing layers to perform high abstraction on data. The Long Short-Term Memory network (LSTM) can fully mine the time dependence in time sequence data to increase information dimensionality, and therefore high-precision prediction of monitoring quantities such as landslide displacement and underground water burial depth is achieved. The LSTM network still has deficiencies and can be optimized by methods such as integration, parameter debugging and the like. In the field of hydraulic building safety monitoring, application exploration of deep learning algorithms such as LSTM and the like is rarely reported, only a small amount of research is carried out on the application exploration for dam deformation prediction, and the application exploration is not extended to other hydraulic buildings at present and optimization processing is not carried out on characteristics of monitoring data.
Therefore, there is a need for an optimized method for monitoring the safety of hydraulic buildings.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the main objective of the present invention is to provide a hydraulic building multi-effect optimization prediction and visualization method based on LSTM network, so as to partially solve at least one of the above technical problems.
In order to achieve the above object, as an aspect of the present invention, there is provided a hydraulic structure multi-effect optimization prediction and visualization method based on an LSTM network, including the following steps:
obtaining prototype observation data;
preprocessing the prototype observation data, and dividing a preprocessed data set into a training set, a verification set and a test set;
constructing an LSTM prediction model, namely an LSTM network, by utilizing the training set, the verification set and the test set;
carrying out hyper-parameter debugging on the LSTM network so as to optimize an LSTM algorithm;
carrying out extension prediction on the LSTM prediction model by utilizing a direct multi-step prediction method; and
and (3) performing visual representation on the LSTM network correlation learning by adopting a t-SNE technology, namely completing the multi-effect optimization prediction and visualization of the hydraulic structure based on the LSTM network.
Wherein, the preprocessing of the prototype observation data comprises data cleaning, noise reduction smoothing, data transformation and data homogenization.
The LSTM prediction model in the step of constructing the LSTM prediction model by utilizing the training set, the verification set and the test set is composed of an input layer, a plurality of hidden layers and an output layer, the output of the previous hidden layer is used as the input of the next hidden layer, the input layer and the hidden layers jointly realize the extraction of input effect quantity data characteristics, the output of the last hidden layer is a one-dimensional column vector, and the predicted value of the processed effect quantity data is obtained through linear regression.
Wherein, the memory module of the LSTM network is composed of a forgetting gate (f)t l) Input gate
Figure BDA0002700218160000021
And output gate
Figure BDA0002700218160000022
And (4) forming. Forgetting to control internal state at last moment
Figure BDA0002700218160000023
The input door controls the candidate state of the current time
Figure BDA0002700218160000031
The amount of information to be stored, and the output gate controls the internal state at the current time
Figure BDA0002700218160000032
Need to be output to external state
Figure BDA0002700218160000033
The amount of information of (2). The corresponding calculation process is as follows:
(1) using external state at last moment
Figure BDA0002700218160000034
And current time input
Figure BDA0002700218160000035
Calculate ft l
Figure BDA0002700218160000036
And
Figure BDA0002700218160000037
as shown in formulas (1) - (3);
Figure BDA0002700218160000038
Figure BDA0002700218160000039
Figure BDA00027002181600000310
(2) combination ft lAnd
Figure BDA00027002181600000311
updating memory cell states
Figure BDA00027002181600000312
As shown in formula (4);
Figure BDA00027002181600000313
(3) by passing
Figure BDA00027002181600000314
Will be provided with
Figure BDA00027002181600000315
Information delivery to
Figure BDA00027002181600000316
As shown in formulas (5) - (6);
Figure BDA00027002181600000317
Figure BDA00027002181600000318
wherein, σ (·) and tanh (·) are respectively a Sigmoid function and a hyperbolic tangent function; w and b are respectively a weight matrix and an offset vector; an indicator indicates a scalar product of two vectors.
Wherein, the step of performing hyper-parameter debugging on the LSTM network so as to optimize the LSTM algorithm specifically comprises:
constructing a deep LSTM network, overlapping and combining a plurality of LSTM networks by adopting a stacking integration method to obtain an integrated LSTM network, carrying out unitary time sequence prediction, and carrying out epitaxial analysis on future change trend of effect quantity directly according to historical monitoring data; and
and carrying out hyper-parameter debugging.
Wherein, the super-parameter debugging is realized by a particle swarm optimization algorithm, and the length w of the time window is calculatedtNumber n of hidden layershThe number of nodes n in each hidden layernLearning rate lrAnd optimizing the number of iterations niCarrying out iterative optimization on equal hyper-parameters, and selecting a hyper-parameter combination with the minimum corresponding fitness value
Figure BDA00027002181600000319
Wherein the performing hyper-parameter debugging further comprises:
initializing parameters; determining a population scale, iteration times, learning factors and limited intervals of position and speed values;
initializing the position and speed of the particles; randomly generating a population of particles Xi,0(wt,n1,n2,lr,ni) (ii) a Wherein n is1Number of neurons representing the first hidden layer, n2Representing the number of neurons in the second hidden layer;
determining an evaluation function of the particle; the particles X obtained in the last step are treatedi,0For LSTM netAssigning parameters of the network; dividing data into training samples, verifying samples and predicting samples; inputting the training sample to train the neural network, and obtaining the training sample output value of the neural network after the iteration times are limited
Figure BDA0002700218160000041
And verifying the sample output value
Figure BDA0002700218160000042
Then the individual XiFitness value fit ofiIs defined as:
Figure BDA0002700218160000043
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0002700218160000044
and
Figure BDA0002700218160000045
respectively obtaining an expected output value of a training sample and an expected output value of a verification sample;
calculating the position X of each particleiDetermining individual extremum and group extremum according to the initial particle fitness value and taking the best position of each particle as the historical best position;
during each iteration, updating the speed and position of the particle itself through the individual extremum and the global extremum according to equations (7) and (8); calculating a new particle fitness value, and updating the individual extreme value and the population extreme value of the particles according to the new population particle fitness value;
Vi,t+1=w×Vi,t+c1×rand×(pbesti-Xi,t)+c2×rand×(gbesti-Xi,t) (7)
Xi,t+1=Xi,t+λ×Vi,t+1 (8)
wherein, Xi,tAnd Vi,tFor the position and velocity of the ith particle in the t-th iterationDegree; pbestiIs an individual extremum; gbestiIs a global optimal solution; w is the inertial weight; c. C1And c2Is a learning factor; rand is [0, 1 ]]A random number in between; λ is a speed coefficient, λ ═ 1;
and obtaining the super parameter with the minimum corresponding fitness value of the LSTM network after the maximum iteration times of the particle swarm optimization algorithm are met.
Wherein, the direct multi-step prediction in the extension prediction of the LSTM prediction model by using the direct multi-step prediction method returns the predicted values of a plurality of moments at one time
Figure BDA0002700218160000046
The learning and estimation processes are as follows:
yj(t+1)=f1(x1,j(t+1),x2,j(t+1),…,xI,j(t+1))+;
Figure BDA0002700218160000051
wherein f is1(. to) a predictive model, referred to herein as LSTM; is a learning error; h is the number of epitaxial steps.
And averaging the operation results of the LSTM prediction model for more than or equal to 10 times to obtain a final output result.
The step of visually characterizing the LSTM network relevance learning by adopting the t-SNE technology comprises the following steps of:
extracting LSTM unit hidden layer vector under all time steps of second layer of network
Figure BDA0002700218160000052
And projecting the original high-dimensional space onto a two-dimensional plane by adopting a t-SNE visualization technology.
Based on the technical scheme, compared with the prior art, the hydraulic building multi-effect optimization prediction and visualization method based on the LSTM network has at least one or part of the following beneficial effects:
aiming at complex nonlinear safety monitoring big data, the invention provides a multi-effect optimization prediction and visualization method suitable for different types of hydraulic buildings by improving and strengthening an LSTM deep network from four aspects of front-end processing, network structure, extension prediction and visualization. The invention provides a new idea for the safety monitoring method of the hydraulic structure and lays a research foundation for deep learning, popularization and application.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a schematic diagram of an internal structure of an LSTM unit provided in an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 2 is a diagram of data for monitoring a prototype of a concrete dam IP4_01_ X deformed according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a diagram of the prediction result of the deformation of the IP4_01_ X measurement point according to the embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a visual representation of an LSTM hidden layer provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 5 is a thermodynamic diagram of correlation coefficients of an LSTM hidden layer provided by an embodiment of the present invention;
fig. 6 is a flow chart of a hydraulic structure multi-effect optimization prediction and visualization method based on a deep LSTM network according to an embodiment of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The invention discloses a hydraulic building multi-effect quantity optimization prediction and visualization method based on a deep LSTM network.
In order that the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention will become more apparent, the present invention will be further described in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings in conjunction with the following specific embodiments.
As shown in fig. 6, the invention discloses a hydraulic structure multi-effect optimization prediction and visualization method based on a deep LSTM network, which can predict monitoring effects of different types of hydraulic structures, and specifically comprises the following steps:
and step A, carrying out data cleaning, noise reduction smoothing, data transformation and data homogenization on the prototype observation data, and dividing the preprocessed data set into a training set, a verification set and a test set. The method specifically comprises the following steps:
step A1: and (6) data cleaning. Respectively carrying out hot card filling method and box type graph analysis method on the monitoring data yjLocal deletion value in (t)
Figure BDA0002700218160000061
Abnormal value
Figure BDA0002700218160000062
Processing in real time to obtain a corrected sequence
Figure BDA0002700218160000063
Step A2: and noise reduction and smoothing. The correction sequence obtained in the step A1 is processed by a wavelet transform method
Figure BDA0002700218160000064
Denoising to obtain a denoising smooth sequence
Figure BDA0002700218160000065
Step A3: and (5) data transformation. Smoothing sequence for noise reduction
Figure BDA0002700218160000066
Normalization processing is carried out, so that the speed of seeking an optimal solution can be increased, and the problem of numerical value brought to gradient updating can be avoided;
Figure BDA0002700218160000067
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0002700218160000068
are respectively a smoothing sequence
Figure BDA0002700218160000069
Minimum and maximum values of;
step A4: and (6) homogenizing the data. Data homogenization is completed by using a segmented cubic Hermite interpolation function to obtain a final data sequence
Figure BDA00027002181600000610
All data are divided into training sets T according to a certain proportion after being preprocessedrVerification set VaAnd test set Te
And step B, constructing a depth LSTM prediction model. The model is composed of an input layer, a plurality of hidden layers and an output layer, wherein the output of the previous hidden layer is used as the input of the next hidden layer, the input layer and the hidden layers jointly realize the extraction of input effect quantity data characteristics, the output of the last hidden layer is a one-dimensional column vector, and the predicted value of the processed effect quantity data is obtained through linear regression.
Memory module of deep LSTM network is composed of forgetting gate (f)t l) Input gate
Figure BDA0002700218160000071
And output gate
Figure BDA0002700218160000072
And (4) forming. Forgetting to control internal state at last moment
Figure BDA0002700218160000073
The input door controls the candidate state of the current time
Figure BDA0002700218160000074
The amount of information to be stored, and the output gate controls the internal state at the current time
Figure BDA0002700218160000075
Need to be output to external state
Figure BDA0002700218160000076
The amount of information of (2). Corresponding to the calculation process asThe following:
(1) using external state at last moment
Figure BDA0002700218160000077
And current time input
Figure BDA0002700218160000078
Calculate ft l
Figure BDA0002700218160000079
And
Figure BDA00027002181600000710
as shown in formulas (2) - (4);
Figure BDA00027002181600000711
Figure BDA00027002181600000712
Figure BDA00027002181600000713
(2) bonding of
Figure BDA00027002181600000714
And
Figure BDA00027002181600000715
updating memory cell states
Figure BDA00027002181600000716
As shown in formula (5);
Figure BDA00027002181600000717
(3) by passing
Figure BDA00027002181600000718
Will be provided with
Figure BDA00027002181600000719
Information delivery to
Figure BDA00027002181600000720
As shown in formulas (6) - (7);
Figure BDA00027002181600000721
Figure BDA00027002181600000722
wherein, σ (·) and tanh (·) are respectively a Sigmoid function and a hyperbolic tangent function; w and b are respectively a weight matrix and an offset vector; an indicator indicates a scalar product of two vectors. The internal structure of the LSTM cell is shown in fig. 1. And updating internal parameters of the LSTM network by adopting an adaptive moment estimation algorithm.
And step C, performing hyper-parameter debugging and optimizing an LSTM algorithm. The method specifically comprises the following steps:
step C1: constructing a deep LSTM network, overlapping and combining a plurality of LSTM networks by adopting a stacking integration method to obtain an integrated LSTM network, carrying out unary time sequence prediction, and directly carrying out effect quantity y according to historical monitoring dataj(t) carrying out epitaxial analysis on the future variation trend;
step C2: and carrying out hyper-parameter debugging. For LSTM networks, the time window length w is optimized by Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO)tNumber n of hidden layershThe number of nodes n in each hidden layernLearning rate lrAnd optimizing the number of iterations niCarrying out iterative optimization on equal hyper-parameters, and selecting a hyper-parameter combination with the minimum corresponding fitness value
Figure BDA0002700218160000081
Step C2-1: and initializing parameters. Determining a population scale, iteration times, learning factors and limited intervals of position and speed values;
step C2-2: the position and velocity of the particles are initialized. Randomly generating a population of particles Xi,0(wt,n1,n2,lr,ni). Wherein n is1Number of neurons representing the first hidden layer, n2Representing the number of neurons in the second hidden layer;
step C2-3: an evaluation function of the particles is determined. The particles X obtained in the step C2-2i,0And assigning values to the parameters of the LSTM. The data is divided into training samples, validation samples and prediction samples. Inputting training samples to train the neural network, and obtaining the training sample output value of the neural network after the iteration times are limited
Figure BDA0002700218160000082
And verifying the sample output value
Figure BDA0002700218160000083
Then the individual XiFitness value fit ofiIs defined as:
Figure BDA0002700218160000084
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure BDA0002700218160000085
and
Figure BDA0002700218160000086
respectively obtaining an expected output value of a training sample and an expected output value of a verification sample;
step C2-4: calculating the position X of each particleiDetermining individual extremum and group extremum according to the initial particle fitness value and taking the best position of each particle as the historical best position; the terms "best" and "best" mean "corresponding to the particle with the smallest fitness value within the number of iterations that have been performed".
Step C2-5: in each iteration process, updating the speed and position of the particle per se through the individual extremum and the global extremum according to the equations (9) and (10); calculating a new particle fitness value, and updating the individual extreme value and the population extreme value of the particles according to the new population particle fitness value;
Vi,t+1=w×Vi,t+c1×rand×(pbesti-Xi,t)+c2×rand×(gbesti-Xi,t) (9)
Xi,t+1=Xi,t+λ×Vi,t+1 (10)
wherein, Xi,tAnd Vi,tIs the position and velocity of the ith particle in the t iteration; pbestiIs an individual extremum; gbestiIs a global optimal solution; w is the inertial weight; c. C1And c2Is a learning factor; rand is [0, 1 ]]A random number in between; λ is a speed coefficient, λ ═ 1;
step C2-6: and obtaining the optimal hyper-parameter of the LSTM network after the maximum iteration times of the PSO algorithm is met.
And D, performing epitaxial prediction by using a direct multi-step prediction method.
Direct multi-step prediction returns predicted values at multiple moments at a time
Figure BDA0002700218160000091
The learning and estimation processes are as follows:
yj(t+1)=f1(x1,j(t+1),x2,j(t+1),…,xI,j(t+1))+ (11)
Figure BDA0002700218160000092
wherein f is1(. to) a predictive model, referred to herein as LSTM; is a learning error; h is the number of epitaxial steps.
Since there is randomness in optimizing the LSTM prediction, the results of 10 runs of each model are averaged as the final output.
And E, performing visual representation on deep LSTM network correlation learning by adopting a t-SNE technology.
Extracting LSTM unit hidden layer vector under all time steps of second layer of network
Figure BDA0002700218160000093
And projecting the original high-dimensional space onto a two-dimensional plane by adopting a t-SNE visualization technology.
The feature extraction capability of the deep LSTM network is visually represented through visualization, namely the time correlation existing in the sequence can be actively extracted, and correlation measurement indexes are defined as follows:
Figure BDA0002700218160000094
wherein the content of the first and second substances,<·>representing the vector inner product;
Figure BDA0002700218160000095
a hidden layer vector corresponding to the ith time step;
Figure BDA0002700218160000096
the hidden layer vector corresponding to the jth time step.
The invention provides the multi-effect optimization prediction and visualization method suitable for different types of hydraulic buildings, which not only can more accurately predict the safety of the hydraulic buildings, but also lays a research foundation for deep learning, popularization and application.
The following is further described as an embodiment by a specific application scenario.
And selecting the effect measured data as a typical application scene, and verifying the effectiveness and the accuracy of the optimized LSTM model, aiming at explaining the advantages of the optimized LSTM model in the aspect of safety monitoring of various hydraulic buildings through the example. Therefore, taking the deformation monitoring data (data are shown in fig. 2, the vertical line is the right prediction period) of a certain concrete dam in the IP4_01_ X direction as an example, an actual application scene is set, and the optimized LSTM depth model is used for carrying out extrapolation prediction on the data.
As can be seen from fig. 2, the deformation of the measuring point shows obvious periodic variation, which is the most common and simplest data evolution form in engineering; the monitoring data has large sample amount and basically consistent numerical value change amplitude; there are several abnormal mutations distributed as discrete (box selection in fig. 2). The direct multi-step prediction results of the optimized LSTM model are shown in fig. 3. As can be seen from the figure: the prediction result of the optimized LSTM model is closer to the actually measured data, the approximate change trend is the same, and the potential of the depth model in the aspect of large-amount data mining analysis is shown. Fig. 4 and 5 visually represent the feature extraction capability of the deep LSTM network through visualization, i.e., it can actively extract the temporal correlation existing in the sequence. Each point in fig. 4 represents a time step, and as the time step progresses, the path in the two-dimensional plane takes a periodic loop shape. The darker the color in fig. 5 indicates greater correlation, the more regular the color shade changes, indicating that depth LSTM can effectively extract structural features in the time series, and the longer-spanning time correlations can be stored by the network due to the unique memory structure.
The above-mentioned embodiments are intended to illustrate the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention in further detail, and it should be understood that the above-mentioned embodiments are only exemplary embodiments of the present invention and are not intended to limit the present invention, and any modifications, equivalents, improvements and the like made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (10)

1. A hydraulic structure multi-effect optimization prediction and visualization method based on an LSTM network is characterized by comprising the following steps:
obtaining prototype observation data;
preprocessing the prototype observation data, and dividing a preprocessed data set into a training set, a verification set and a test set;
constructing an LSTM prediction model, namely an LSTM network, by utilizing the training set, the verification set and the test set;
carrying out hyper-parameter debugging on the LSTM network so as to optimize an LSTM algorithm;
carrying out extension prediction on the LSTM prediction model by utilizing a direct multi-step prediction method; and
and (3) performing visual representation on the LSTM network correlation learning by adopting a t-SNE technology, namely completing the multi-effect optimization prediction and visualization of the hydraulic structure based on the LSTM network.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the preprocessing of the prototype observations comprises data cleaning, noise reduction smoothing, data transformation, and data homogenization.
3. The method for optimizing, predicting and visualizing multiple effects of a hydraulic structure according to claim 1, wherein the LSTM prediction model in the step of constructing the LSTM prediction model using the training set, the validation set, and the test set is composed of an input layer, a plurality of hidden layers, and an output layer, an output of a previous hidden layer is used as an input of a next hidden layer, the input layer and the hidden layers together achieve extraction of input effect data features, an output of a last hidden layer is a one-dimensional column vector, and a predicted value of processed effect data is obtained through linear regression.
4. The hydraulic structure multi-effect optimization prediction and visualization method according to claim 1, wherein the memory module of the LSTM network is a forgetting gate
Figure FDA0002700218150000011
Input gate
Figure FDA0002700218150000012
And output gate
Figure FDA0002700218150000013
Forming; forgetting to control internal state at last moment
Figure FDA0002700218150000014
Need to forgetAmount of information, input gate control of the current time candidate status
Figure FDA0002700218150000015
The amount of information to be stored, and the output gate controls the internal state at the current time
Figure FDA0002700218150000016
Need to be output to external state
Figure FDA0002700218150000017
The amount of information of (a); the corresponding calculation process is as follows:
(1) using external state at last moment
Figure FDA0002700218150000021
And current time input
Figure FDA0002700218150000022
Calculate out
Figure FDA0002700218150000023
Figure FDA0002700218150000024
And
Figure FDA0002700218150000025
as shown in formulas (1) - (3);
Figure FDA0002700218150000026
Figure FDA0002700218150000027
Figure FDA0002700218150000028
(2) bonding of
Figure FDA0002700218150000029
And
Figure FDA00027002181500000210
updating memory cell states
Figure FDA00027002181500000211
As shown in formula (4);
Figure FDA00027002181500000212
(3) by passing
Figure FDA00027002181500000213
Will be provided with
Figure FDA00027002181500000214
Information delivery to
Figure FDA00027002181500000215
As shown in formulas (5) - (6);
Figure FDA00027002181500000216
Figure FDA00027002181500000217
wherein, σ (·) and tanh (·) are respectively a Sigmoid function and a hyperbolic tangent function; w and b are respectively a weight matrix and an offset vector; an indicator indicates a scalar product of two vectors.
5. The method for optimizing, predicting and visualizing multiple effects of a hydraulic structure according to claim 1, wherein the step of performing hyper-parametric debugging on the LSTM network so as to optimize an LSTM algorithm specifically comprises:
constructing a deep LSTM network, overlapping and combining a plurality of LSTM networks by adopting a stacking integration method to obtain an integrated LSTM network, carrying out unitary time sequence prediction, and carrying out epitaxial analysis on future change trend of effect quantity directly according to historical monitoring data; and
and carrying out hyper-parameter debugging.
6. The method for predicting and visualizing multiple effects of hydraulic buildings according to claim 5, wherein the performing of the hyper-parameter debugging is realized by a particle swarm optimization algorithm, and the time window length w istNumber n of hidden layershThe number of nodes n in each hidden layernLearning rate lrAnd optimizing the number of iterations niCarrying out iterative optimization on equal hyper-parameters, and selecting a hyper-parameter combination with the minimum corresponding fitness value
Figure FDA00027002181500000218
7. The method for predicting and visualizing multiple effects in hydraulic structures according to claim 5, wherein said performing hyper-parametric debugging further comprises:
initializing parameters; determining a population scale, iteration times, learning factors and limited intervals of position and speed values;
initializing the position and speed of the particles; randomly generating a population of particles Xi,0(wt,n1,n2,lr,ni) (ii) a Wherein n is1Number of neurons representing the first hidden layer, n2Representing the number of neurons in the second hidden layer;
determining an evaluation function of the particle; the particles X obtained in the last step are treatedi,0Assigning values to parameters of the LSTM network; dividing data into training samples, verifying samples and predicting samples; inputting the training sample to train the neural network to reach the limit of iteration timesObtaining the output value of the training sample of the neural network
Figure FDA0002700218150000031
And verifying the sample output value
Figure FDA0002700218150000032
Then the individual XiFitness value fit ofiIs defined as:
Figure FDA0002700218150000033
wherein the content of the first and second substances,
Figure FDA0002700218150000034
and
Figure FDA0002700218150000035
respectively obtaining an expected output value of a training sample and an expected output value of a verification sample;
calculating the position X of each particleiDetermining individual extremum and group extremum according to the initial particle fitness value and taking the best position of each particle as the historical best position;
during each iteration, updating the speed and position of the particle itself through the individual extremum and the global extremum according to equations (7) and (8); calculating a new particle fitness value, and updating the individual extreme value and the population extreme value of the particles according to the new population particle fitness value;
Vi,t+1=w×Vi,t+c1×rand×(pbesti-Xi,t)+c2×rand×(gbesti-Xi,t) (7)
Xi,t+1=Xi,t+λ×Vi,t+1 (8)
wherein, Xi,tAnd Vi,tIs the position and velocity of the ith particle in the t iteration; pbestiIs an individual extremum; gbestiIs a global optimal solution; w is the inertial weight; c. C1And c2Is a learning factor; rand is [0, 1 ]]A random number in between; λ is a speed coefficient, λ ═ 1;
and obtaining the super parameter with the minimum corresponding fitness value of the LSTM network after the maximum iteration times of the particle swarm optimization algorithm are met.
8. The method for optimizing, predicting and visualizing multiple effects of hydraulic structures according to claim 1, wherein the direct multi-step prediction in the extensive prediction of the LSTM prediction model by using the direct multi-step prediction method returns predicted values at multiple moments at a time
Figure FDA0002700218150000036
The learning and estimation processes are as follows:
yj(t+1)=f1(x1,j(t+1),x2,j(t+1),…,xI,j(t+1))+;
Figure FDA0002700218150000041
wherein f is1(. to) a predictive model, referred to herein as LSTM; is a learning error; h is the number of epitaxial steps.
9. The method for optimizing, predicting and visualizing the multiple effects of a hydraulic structure as claimed in claim 1, wherein the final output result is obtained by averaging the operation results of the LSTM prediction model for 10 times or more.
10. The method for predicting and visualizing the multiple effects of the hydraulic structure as claimed in claim 1, wherein said step of visually characterizing LSTM network dependency learning using t-SNE technique comprises:
extracting LSTM unit hidden layer vector under all time steps of second layer of network
Figure FDA0002700218150000042
And projecting the original high-dimensional space onto a two-dimensional plane by adopting a t-SNE visualization technology.
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