CN111898925A - Area protection power supply risk analysis method based on event tree - Google Patents
Area protection power supply risk analysis method based on event tree Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses an event tree-based area protection power supply risk analysis method, which comprises the following steps: acquiring a power grid topological structure of a regional power grid and a previous power grid; acquiring a standby device which can be used for power protection; closing standby equipment on the power grid topological structure to form a power grid structure; carrying out topology analysis on the ring network structure to form a minimum spanning tree; generating an operation mode meeting the operation conditions of the regional power grid according to the minimum spanning tree combined with the ring network structure; forming a power protection path according to the operation mode; simplifying the power protection and supply path by using the virtual path to obtain a simplified power protection and supply path; generating a power supply protection risk event tree according to the simplified power supply protection path; and analyzing the power supply protection risk based on the power supply protection risk event tree. The method for analyzing the power supply risk of the regional protection can dynamically monitor a plurality of paths of the power supply protection, discover the power supply risk of the regional protection in real time and analyze the power supply risk of the regional protection effectively.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of distribution automation, in particular to a regional protection power supply risk analysis method based on an event tree.
Background
The big data of electric power is the inevitable process of technical innovation of electric power industry in energy revolution, and is not a simple technical category. The electric power big data is not only a technical progress, but also a great change in the aspects of the development concept, the management system, the technical route and the like of the whole electric power system in the big data era, and is a jump of the value form of the next generation of intelligent electric power system in the big data era. The method for reshaping the power core value and converting the power development mode is two core main lines of power big data.
The monitoring of the traditional important user running state only realizes the monitoring of a power supply at the power distribution network side of a user, and due to the lack of main network path information and standby device information, a plurality of paths for power protection cannot be dynamically monitored, the power protection risk cannot be found in real time, and the dynamic risk analysis and early warning for power protection of key customers are not facilitated.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention mainly aims to provide an event tree-based area protection power supply risk analysis method, which aims to solve the problems that multiple paths of protection power supply cannot be dynamically monitored, the risk of protection power supply cannot be found in real time, and effective protection power supply risk analysis cannot be carried out in the prior art.
In order to achieve the purpose, the invention provides a regional protection power supply risk analysis method based on an event tree, which comprises the following steps:
acquiring a power grid topological structure of a regional power grid and a previous power grid;
acquiring a standby device which can be used for power protection;
closing standby equipment on the power grid topological structure to form a power grid structure;
carrying out topology analysis on the ring network structure to form a minimum spanning tree;
generating an operation mode meeting the operation conditions of the regional power grid according to the minimum spanning tree combined with the ring network structure;
forming a power protection path according to the operation mode;
simplifying the power protection and supply path by using the virtual path to obtain a simplified power protection and supply path;
generating a power supply protection risk event tree according to the simplified power supply protection path;
and analyzing the power supply protection risk based on the power supply protection risk event tree.
Further, an operation mode meeting the operation conditions of the regional power grid is generated according to the minimum spanning tree combined with the ring network structure, specifically: and taking the branch in the minimum spanning tree as a branch, finding out a branch by combining with a ring network structure, and forming a ring-off mode by taking the branch as a unit to obtain an operation mode set meeting the operation conditions of the regional power grid.
Further, the virtual path is used to simplify the power protection and supply path, so as to obtain a simplified power protection and supply path, specifically: and the simple serial paths in the power protection and supply paths are replaced by a single virtual path, and the power protection and supply paths are simplified to obtain the simplified power protection and supply paths.
Further, the power supply protection risk is analyzed based on the power supply protection risk event tree, specifically: and judging the operation condition of each power protection supply path according to the real-time fault condition of the regional power grid, if part of the power protection supply paths are lost, analyzing whether the power supply capacity is insufficient and whether the load reduction requirement exists based on the redundant power protection supply paths, selecting an optimal operation mode from the rest power protection supply paths, and continuously monitoring the operation condition of the rest power protection supply paths.
Further, a power protection path is formed according to the operation mode, specifically: and carrying out topology search on the power supply path according to the operation mode to form a power protection path set.
Further, generating a power protection risk event tree according to the simplified power protection path, including: forming a condition for ensuring the existence of a power supply path according to an operation mode meeting the operation condition of the regional power grid and the current power grid operation condition; and forming a condition of losing the power supply path according to the operation mode and the power supply protection path which meet the operation condition of the regional power grid.
Further, generating a power protection risk event tree according to the simplified power protection path, further comprising: and comparing the theoretical electrification state and the actual electrification state of the simplified power protection supply path, finding out a power protection supply path with inconsistent theoretical electrification state and actual electrification state, listing lines, transformer areas, users and corresponding operation events corresponding to the found power protection supply path as the suspected topological relation problem, and putting the suspected topological relation problem into a suspected topological error group.
Further, acquiring a power grid topological structure of a regional power grid and a previous power grid, specifically: and deriving the power grid topological structures of the regional power grid and the upper-level power grid from the power dispatching automation DMS system, the EMS system and the SCADA system, wherein the power grid topological structures comprise a 10kV power grid topological structure, a 35kV power grid topological structure, a 110kV power grid topological structure and a 220kV power grid topological structure.
Further, acquiring a standby device which can be used for power conservation, specifically: and (3) deriving standby equipment which can be used for power supply protection from the power dispatching automation DMS system and the EMS system, wherein the standby equipment comprises a tie switch and a network standby power automatic switch.
By applying the technical scheme of the invention, an available power protection and supply path is effectively found out by constructing a simulation environment, closing the standby equipment and discovering a power grid operation mode meeting the open-loop operation condition of the regional power grid through topology analysis, the power protection and supply path is simplified, a power failure event causing a problem in the power protection and supply path is found out in a traversal mode, a power protection and supply risk event tree is formed, and the influence possibly caused on power protection and supply is analyzed according to the risk event tree and the actual event. The method can dynamically monitor the multiple paths of the protection power supply, discover the risk of the protection power supply in real time and perform effective protection power supply risk analysis.
The present invention will be described in further detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiments of the invention and, together with the description, serve to explain the invention and not to limit the invention. In the drawings:
fig. 1 is a flowchart of a method for analyzing risk of power supply for area protection based on an event tree according to the present invention.
Fig. 2 is an exemplary diagram of a power conservation scenario system.
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of forming a minimum spanning tree and a power conservation path.
Fig. 4 is a schematic diagram of the ring-opening mode of the initial operation state of the system.
Fig. 5 is a schematic diagram of an open loop mode of converting power from the path 4 through the power supply point 1.
Detailed Description
In order to facilitate an understanding of the invention, the invention will be described more fully and in detail below with reference to the accompanying drawings and preferred embodiments, but the scope of the invention is not limited to the specific embodiments below.
Referring to fig. 1 to 5, a method for analyzing a power supply risk of a regional protection based on an event tree according to an embodiment of the present invention mainly includes the following steps:
step S1: acquiring a power grid topological structure of a regional power grid and a previous power grid;
step S2: acquiring a standby device which can be used for power protection;
step S3: closing the standby equipment on the power grid topological structure to form a power grid structure;
step S4: carrying out topology analysis on the ring network structure to form a minimum spanning tree;
step S5: generating an operation mode meeting the operation conditions of the regional power grid by combining the minimum spanning tree with the ring network structure;
step S6: forming a power protection path according to the operation mode;
step S7: simplifying the power protection and supply path by using a virtual path to obtain a simplified power protection and supply path;
step S8: generating a power protection risk event tree according to the simplified power protection path;
step S9: and analyzing the power protection risk based on the power protection risk event tree.
According to the area power protection and supply risk analysis method based on the event tree, a simulation environment is constructed, standby equipment is closed, a power grid operation mode meeting the open-loop operation conditions of the area power grid is discovered through topology analysis, an available power protection and supply path is effectively found out, the power protection and supply path is simplified, a power failure event causing problems in the power protection and supply path is found out in a traversal mode, a power protection and supply risk event tree is formed, and the influence possibly caused on power protection and supply is analyzed according to the risk event tree and the actual event. The method can dynamically monitor a plurality of paths of the protection power supply, discover the risk of the protection power supply in real time and carry out effective protection power supply risk analysis.
Specifically, in step S1 of this embodiment, the obtaining of the power grid topology structures of the regional power grid and the upper-level power grid specifically means: and deriving the power grid topological structures of the regional power grid and the upper-level power grid from the power dispatching automation DMS system, the EMS system and the SCADA system, wherein the power grid topological structures comprise a 10kV power grid topological structure, a 35kV power grid topological structure, a 110kV power grid topological structure and a 220kV power grid topological structure. Fig. 2 shows an example of the power conservation scenario, in which fig. 2 has 3 power supply points and 1 backup power supply point.
Further, in step S2, acquiring a standby device that can be used for power conservation, specifically: and (3) deriving standby equipment which can be used for power supply protection from the power dispatching automation DMS system and the EMS system, wherein the standby equipment comprises a tie switch and a network standby power automatic switch.
Specifically, in step S5 of this embodiment, an operation mode meeting the regional power grid operation condition is generated according to the minimum spanning tree in combination with the ring network structure, specifically: and (4) taking the branch in the minimum spanning tree in the step (S4) as a branch, finding out a branch by combining the ring network structure in the step (S5), and forming an unlinked mode by taking the branch as a unit, thereby obtaining an operation mode set meeting the operation conditions of the regional power grid.
Specifically, in step S6 of this embodiment, a power protection path is formed according to the operation mode, specifically: and topologically searching the power supply paths according to the operation mode, thereby forming a protection power supply path set. The minimum spanning tree and the guaranteed power path are shown in FIG. 3; the initial operation of the system is shown in the way of ring-opening in fig. 4.
Further, in step S7 of this embodiment, the virtual path is used to simplify the power-saving path, so as to obtain a simplified power-saving path, specifically: the simple serial paths in the power protection and supply paths are replaced by a single virtual path, so that the power protection and supply paths are simplified, and the simplified power protection and supply paths are obtained.
Specifically, in step S8 of the present embodiment, the generating of the power protection risk event tree according to the simplified power protection path includes: forming a condition for ensuring the existence of a power supply path according to an operation mode meeting the operation condition of the regional power grid and the current power grid operation condition; and forming a condition of losing the power supply path according to the operation mode and the power supply protection path which meet the operation condition of the regional power grid.
Further, step S8 further includes: and comparing the theoretical electrification state and the actual electrification state of the simplified power protection supply path, finding out a power protection supply path with inconsistent theoretical electrification state and actual electrification state, listing lines, transformer areas and users corresponding to the found power protection supply path and corresponding operation events as the problem of suspected topological relation, and putting the suspected topological relation into a suspected topological error group.
In step S9 of this embodiment, the power supply protection risk is analyzed based on the power supply protection risk event tree, specifically: and judging the operation condition of each power protection supply path according to the real-time fault condition of the regional power grid, if part of the power protection supply paths are lost, analyzing whether the power supply capacity is insufficient and whether the load reduction requirement exists based on the redundant power protection supply paths, selecting an optimal operation mode from the rest power protection supply paths, and continuously monitoring the operation condition of the rest power protection supply paths. Fig. 5 is a schematic diagram of an open loop mode in which the power point 2 and the path 1 are lost and power is supplied from the power point 1 through the backup power automatic switching device.
According to the area power protection and supply risk analysis method based on the event tree, all potential power protection and supply paths are excavated through excavation of all possible operation modes of an area power grid and topology analysis, the normal operation conditions of the power protection and supply paths are recorded, and when a risk event such as power failure occurs, the power protection and supply paths are monitored, the optimal operation mode is searched, and the risk is responded.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention and is not intended to limit the present invention, and various modifications and changes may be made by those skilled in the art. Any modification, equivalent replacement, or improvement made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the protection scope of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. An event tree-based area protection power supply risk analysis method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring a power grid topological structure of a regional power grid and a previous power grid;
acquiring a standby device which can be used for power protection;
closing the standby equipment on the power grid topological structure to form a power grid structure;
carrying out topology analysis on the ring network structure to form a minimum spanning tree;
generating an operation mode meeting the operation conditions of the regional power grid by combining the minimum spanning tree with the ring network structure;
forming a power protection path according to the operation mode;
simplifying the power protection and supply path by using a virtual path to obtain a simplified power protection and supply path;
generating a power protection risk event tree according to the simplified power protection path;
and analyzing the power protection risk based on the power protection risk event tree.
2. The event tree based area protection power supply risk analysis method according to claim 1, wherein an operation mode meeting an operation condition of a regional power grid is generated by combining the minimum spanning tree with the ring network structure, specifically:
and taking the branch in the minimum spanning tree as a branch, finding out a chain branch by combining the ring network structure, and forming a ring-disconnecting mode by taking the chain branch as a unit to obtain an operation mode set meeting the operation conditions of the regional power grid.
3. The method for analyzing the risk of power supply for area protection based on the event tree as claimed in claim 1, wherein the power supply protection path is simplified by using a virtual path to obtain a simplified power supply protection path, specifically:
and replacing the simple serial paths in the power protection and supply paths with a single virtual path, and simplifying the power protection and supply paths to obtain the simplified power protection and supply paths.
4. The method for analyzing the risk of power supply for area protection based on the event tree as claimed in claim 1, wherein the risk of power supply protection is analyzed based on the event tree for power supply protection risk, specifically:
and judging the operation condition of each power protection supply path according to the real-time fault condition of the regional power grid, if part of the power protection supply paths are lost, analyzing whether the power supply capacity is insufficient and whether the load reduction requirement exists based on the redundant power protection supply paths, selecting an optimal operation mode from the rest power protection supply paths, and continuously monitoring the operation condition of the rest power protection supply paths.
5. The method for analyzing the risk of area power supply protection based on the event tree as claimed in claim 1, wherein a power supply protection path is formed according to the operation mode, specifically: and topologically searching a power supply path according to the operation mode to form a power protection path set.
6. The method for analyzing the risk of power supply for area protection based on the event tree as claimed in claim 1, wherein generating the risk of power supply protection event tree according to the simplified power supply protection path comprises:
forming a condition for ensuring the existence of a power supply path according to an operation mode meeting the operation condition of the regional power grid and the current power grid operation condition; and forming a condition of losing the power supply path according to the operation mode and the power supply protection path which meet the operation condition of the regional power grid.
7. The method for analyzing risk of power supply for area protection based on event tree as claimed in claim 6, wherein generating the risk of power supply protection event tree according to the simplified power supply protection path further comprises:
and comparing the theoretical electrification state and the actual electrification state of the simplified power protection supply path, finding out a power protection supply path with inconsistent theoretical electrification state and actual electrification state, listing lines, transformer areas and users corresponding to the found power protection supply path and corresponding operation events as the problem of suspected topological relation, and putting the suspected topological relation into a suspected topological error group.
8. The method for analyzing the risk of power supply for area protection based on the event tree according to any one of claims 1 to 7, wherein the power grid topology structures of the area power grid and the upper-level power grid are obtained, specifically:
and deriving the power grid topological structures of the regional power grid and the upper-level power grid from the power dispatching automation DMS system, the EMS system and the SCADA system, wherein the power grid topological structures comprise a 10kV power grid topological structure, a 35kV power grid topological structure, a 110kV power grid topological structure and a 220kV power grid topological structure.
9. The method for analyzing the risk of area power supply protection based on the event tree according to any one of claims 1 to 7, wherein the obtaining of the standby equipment which can be used for power supply protection specifically means:
from the power dispatching automation DMS system and the EMS system, backup devices which can be used for power protection are derived, wherein the backup devices comprise a tie switch and a network backup power automatic switch.
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