CN111898097B - Ecological flow determination method combining probability density and guarantee rate - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention relates to an ecological flow determination method combining probability density and guarantee rate, which comprises the following steps: collecting daily flow data of a plurality of years, and finishing to obtain a daily flow frequency curve of 12 months; adopting a self-adaptive kernel density function method, and regarding the flow at the position with the maximum probability density as the optimal flow of the month to obtain the annual optimal ecological flow process; determining a month-by-month proper ecological flow lower threshold and a year-round proper ecological flow lower threshold flow process; and determining an upper threshold value of the suitable ecological flow month by month and an upper threshold flow process of the suitable ecological flow year round. The invention provides the ecological flow determination method combining the probability density and the guarantee rate for the first time, the calculation result can ensure that the designed ecological flow can reflect the annual and seasonal change process, simultaneously adapt to the requirements of aquatic organisms and water requirements of human society, maintain the balance between river health and social water to the greatest extent, and have certain popularization and use values.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of ecological flow formulation and environmental protection, in particular to an ecological flow determination method combining probability density and guarantee rate.
Background
At present, more than 200 ecological flow calculation methods exist at home and abroad, and the method can be wholly divided into a plurality of categories such as hydrology, hydraulics, habitat, whole analysis and the like. Among them, hydrologic method is widely used because of its simple data type and easy calculation. According to the theory of natural-social binary water circulation, the water flow change in a river channel is influenced by natural environment boundaries such as climate change and the like, meanwhile, the water taking behavior of increasingly-growing human beings is also related, the ecological flow of the river relates to a plurality of benefit bodies, and contradictions exist between the ecological flow and the traditional water required for production and living. However, few of the current ecological flow determinations are correlated with the extent of human exploitation. Meanwhile, the definition subjectivity and experience of the hydrologic method (such as a Tennant method, a month-by-month frequency method and the like) on the ecological grade standard are too strong, the ecological flow formulation is more focused on the consideration of aspects of aquatic organisms, natural hydrologic situation and the like, and the ecological management target is not combined to balance the water demand of the human society. In view of this, perfecting and developing an ecological flow determination method based on a combination of probability density and assurance rate is considered. The flow at the position with the maximum probability density is regarded as the proper flow of the aquatic organism to reflect the natural hydrologic situation change; the socioeconomic objective is embodied in the form of a guaranteed rate for setting upper and lower thresholds for the proper ecological flow, and then the influence of natural and social activities on the ecological flow is considered simultaneously. The method is not only beneficial to coordinating ecological water demand binary contradiction of different stakeholders, but also is rich and supplementary to ecological flow formulation theory and method.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide the ecological flow determination method combining the probability density and the guarantee rate, which can more accurately reflect and evaluate annual and internationally-changed ecological flow, has better regional applicability and portability, and can consider the most suitable ecological runoff required by aquatic organisms and the corresponding water resource development and utilization degree.
The invention solves the technical problems by adopting the following scheme:
the ecological flow determining method combining the probability density and the guarantee rate comprises the following steps:
step 1, collecting daily flow data of a plurality of years, and finishing to obtain a daily flow frequency curve of 12 months;
step 2, adopting a self-adaptive kernel density function method, and regarding the flow at the position with the maximum probability density as the optimal flow of the month to obtain the annual optimal ecological flow process;
step 3, determining a month-by-month proper ecological flow lower threshold value, and obtaining a year-round proper ecological flow lower threshold value flow process according to the month-by-month proper ecological flow lower threshold value;
and step 4, determining an upper threshold value of the month-by-month proper ecological flow, and obtaining a flow process of the upper threshold value of the year-round proper ecological flow according to the upper threshold value of the month-by-month proper ecological flow.
Further, daily flow data of not less than 10 years is collected in step 1.
Further, the method for obtaining the daily runoff frequency curve of 12 months in the step 1 comprises the following steps:
first, the daily flow data of hydrologic stations are arranged and designed, and the daily flow of the ith, jth and kth days is set as x i，j，k Where i=1, 2,..n, j=1, 2, J, k=1, 2, K j N is total years, J is months per year (j=12), K i The total number of days corresponding to month j; setting the daily runoff sequence of the ith and the jth monthsThe daily runoff for a plurality of years can be arranged into a daily runoff matrix M:
then, a theoretical frequency curve of a 1 month daily runoff sequence is drawn: column 1 (X) 11 ，X 21 ，...，X N1 ) Sequencing the daily runoff values from large to small, and fitting the daily runoff sequence by using a Pearson III type curve to obtain a 1 month daily runoff theoretical frequency curve;
and repeating the steps for the remaining 11 columns of daily runoff sequences of the M matrix to obtain daily runoff theoretical frequency curves of all months, and finally obtaining the daily runoff theoretical frequency curves of 12 months after finishing.
Further, the method for preparing the annual optimum ecological flow process in the step 2 is as follows:
firstly, extracting a 1 month long series daily flow sequence in an M matrix obtained by finishing in the step 1, and defining a fixed bandwidth density function of the month; sequence of daily flow (y) 1 ，y 2 ，...，y t ，...，y m )＝(x 1，1，1 ，...，x 1，1，K ，x 2，1，1 ，...，x 2，1，K ，...，x N，1，1 ，...，x N，1，K ) The obeyed distribution density function is f (y), y epsilon R, and the function is defined:
wherein f h (y; h) is a kernel density estimate of the density function f (y);is a kernel function; h is a window width or smoothness parameter; m is the length of the daily flow sequence;
then, on the basis of the fixed wide kernel density function, the window width parameter h is corrected to w lambda t An adaptive kernel density estimate is obtained in the form shown below:
wherein lambda is j Is a local bandwidth factor, w is a window width parameter;
then go through parameter lambda t And w is determined to obtain lambda t After the values of w are substituted into the formula (3), the estimated nuclear density value f is calculated h (y，y t )；
Thus { y } according to the 1 month long series of daily flow rate sequences t (t=1, 2,., m) to obtain a corresponding sequence of nuclear density estimates { f h (y t ) Obtaining a density function graph of the 1 month daily flow sequence, and selecting a maximum value f of the density function in the graph max (y t ) Corresponding daily flow valueNamely, the flow rate is 1 month;
finally, repeating the steps for the daily flow sequence of 2-12 months to obtain the proper flow of 2-12 months, and forming the proper ecological flow process of the whole year by the optimal ecological flow of each month.
Further, the expression of the kernel function is:
wherein S is a sample set { y } t Variance of each sample point y is taken into account t Data dispersion in different directions and ranges.
Further, in determining the parameter lambda t The method for the w value is as follows:
initially selecting a bandwidth h 0 And substituting into formula (2) to obtain preliminary estimationThereby, the local bandwidth factor lambda t The solution formula of (2) is:
wherein T is more than or equal to 0 and less than or equal to 1 as a sensitivity factor, T=0.5 is taken,
the solution formula of the window width parameter w is:
wherein M is d Is the number of flow rate values which are different from each other in time series and M d ≤m；
Thereby obtaining lambda t Values of w.
Further, the method for determining the lower threshold value of the suitable ecological flow month by month in the step 3 is as follows:
after the theoretical frequency curve of each month is obtained in the step 1, setting a lower threshold guarantee rate P d And selecting a flow value corresponding to the lower threshold guarantee rate as an ecological water demand threshold of the month, and forming a annual proper ecological flow lower threshold flow process by the proper ecological flow lower threshold of each month.
Further, the lower threshold guarantee rate P d Is P d =90% or 95%.
Further, the method for determining the upper threshold value of the suitable ecological flow month by month in the step 4 is as follows:
after the theoretical frequency curve of each month is obtained in the step 1, setting an upper threshold guarantee rate P u And selecting a flow value corresponding to the upper threshold guarantee rate as an ecological water demand upper threshold of the month, and forming an annual proper ecological flow upper threshold flow process by the proper ecological flow upper threshold of each month.
Further, upper threshold guarantee rate P u Selected as P u =10% or 20%.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has at least the following beneficial effects: the ecological flow determination method based on the combination of probability density and guarantee rate is different from the traditional hydrologic method in ecological flow formulation, the traditional hydrologic method generally takes the percentage of flow or the guarantee rate as an ecological flow grading standard, has larger subjectivity and experience, and has more concerned directions in the change condition of natural habitat, and the influence of the water consumption requirement and the water resource development and utilization degree of the human society is less considered in design; the invention provides an ecological flow determination method based on the combination of probability density and guarantee rate, which can reflect the ecological flow demand of the natural side by selecting the flow value corresponding to the position with the maximum probability density in the daily flow sequence as the proper ecological flow which is most suitable for the survival and propagation of aquatic organisms, simultaneously set the guarantee rate meeting the requirement of the economic development of human society, select the daily flow value corresponding to the specific guarantee rate as the upper and lower threshold values of the proper ecological flow, reflect the ecological flow demand of the social side, and can maintain the balance between the river health and the social water to the greatest extent, and the result is simple and clear, and the implementation is simple and easy; compared with the prior art, the invention provides the ecological flow determination method combining the self-adaptive probability density and the guarantee rate for the first time, and the ecological flow determination method is applied to river ecological flow calculation, is an important innovation in the technical field, ensures that the ecological flow can change in the year and seasonally, adapts to the requirements of aquatic organisms and water in human society, and has certain popularization and use values.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of an embodiment of the present invention.
FIG. 2 is a graph of a series of theoretical frequency curves of 1 month daily flow rate for a total stream station according to an embodiment of the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a graph of a long series of probability densities for a daily flow rate of 1 month for a total stream station in an embodiment of the invention;
FIG. 4 is a graph comparing the method in the general stream station with the Tennent method in an example of the present invention.
Detailed Description
For a better understanding of the present invention, the following examples are further illustrative of the present invention, but the contents of the present invention are not limited to the following examples only.
The invention provides an ecological flow determination method combining probability density and guarantee rate, which is exemplified by a total river hydrologic station in a river basin of a certain province, and a month-average ecological flow process for designing the total river station by adopting the ecological flow determination method based on the combination of probability density and guarantee rate is explained. As shown in fig. 1, an embodiment of the present invention includes the steps of:
step 1, data arrangement:
and selecting the daily flow data of the general river station 2002-2012 as basic data of ecological flow calculation. Let the daily flow rate of the ith, jth and kth days be x i，j，k Where i=1, 2,..n, j=1, 2, J, k=1, 2, K j N is total years, J is months per year (j=12), K j The total number of days corresponding to month j. Setting the daily runoff sequence of the ith and the jth monthsThe daily runoff for many years can be sorted into a daily runoff matrix M:
then, drawing a theoretical frequency curve of a 1 month daily runoff sequence, wherein the specific method comprises the following steps: column 1 of the M matrix (X 11 ，X 21 ，...，X N1 ) Sequencing the daily runoff values from large to small, and fitting the daily runoff series by using a Pearson III type curve to obtain a 1 month daily runoff theoretical frequency curve, wherein the figure 2 is shown.
And repeating the steps for the remaining 11 columns of daily runoff sequences of the M matrix to obtain daily runoff theoretical frequency curves of all months, and finally obtaining the daily runoff theoretical frequency curves of 12 months after finishing.
And 2, adopting a self-adaptive kernel density function method, regarding the flow at the position with the maximum probability density as the optimal flow of the month, and obtaining the annual optimal ecological flow process, wherein the specific implementation method is as follows:
firstly, extracting a daily runoff sequence of 1 month in the M matrix obtained in the step 1, and defining a fixed bandwidth density function of the month. For convenience of description, let the daily flow sequence (y 1 ，y 2 ，...，y t ，...，y m )＝(x 1，1，1 ，...，x 1，1，K ，x 2，1，1 ，...，x 2，1，K ，...，x N，1，1 ，...，x N，1，K ) The obeyed distribution density function is f (y), y epsilon R, and the function is defined:
wherein f h (y; h) is a kernel density estimate of the density function f (y);is a kernel function; h is window width or smoothnessParameters; m is the length of the daily flow sequence. There are many kernel functions, but the roles of different kernel functions are equivalent, and this embodiment takes a gaussian kernel function as an example:
wherein S is a sample set { y } t Variance of each sample point y is taken into account t Data dispersion in different directions and ranges.
Then, on the basis of the fixed wide kernel density function, the window width parameter h is corrected to w lambda t An adaptive kernel density estimate is obtained in the form shown below:
wherein lambda is j And w is a window width parameter.
Next, a parameter lambda is performed t The specific method for determining w comprises the following steps: initially selecting a bandwidth h 0 And substituting into formula (ii) to obtain a preliminary estimateThereby, the local bandwidth factor lambda t The solution formula of (2) is:
where 0.ltoreq.T.ltoreq.1 is a sensitivity factor, T=0.5 being usually taken.
The solution formula of the window width parameter w is:
wherein M is d For the occurrence of mutually-different traffic values in a time seriesNumber (M) d And (m) is less than or equal to). From this, lambda is calculated t After the values of w, the values are substituted into (iV) to determine a nuclear density estimated value f h (y，y t )。
Thus, the { y } can be determined from the 1 month long series of daily flow rate sequences t (t=1, 2,., m) to obtain a corresponding sequence of nuclear density estimates { f h (y t ) And a density function graph of the 1 month daily flow rate sequence was obtained, see fig. 3. Selecting the maximum value f of the density function in the graph max (y t ) Corresponding daily flow valueI.e. a suitable flow rate of 1 month.
Finally, repeating the steps for the daily flow sequence of 2-12 months to obtain the proper flow of 2-12 months. The optimum ecological flow rate of each month is used for forming the annual proper ecological flow rate process.
And step 3, determining a month-by-month proper ecological flow lower threshold value and a year-round proper ecological flow lower threshold value flow process.
After the theoretical frequency curve for each month is obtained in step 1, a lower threshold assurance rate P is set in the present embodiment d In other embodiments, the lower threshold guarantee rate P is also selected d =95%, the specific lower threshold guarantee rate depends on the actual situation; selecting a flow value corresponding to the lower threshold guarantee rate as an ecological water demand threshold of the month, and forming a annual proper ecological flow lower threshold flow process by the proper ecological flow lower threshold of each month
And step 4, determining an upper threshold value of the suitable ecological flow month by month and an upper threshold flow process of the suitable ecological flow year by year.
After the theoretical frequency curve of each month is obtained in step 1, an upper threshold guarantee rate P is set in the embodiment according to the local economic and social requirements u =10% (ten years-flood standard), in other areas or embodiments, the upper threshold guarantee rate P can also be set u =20% (five years-flood standard), in actual selection, local case is the right; selecting a flow value corresponding to the upper threshold guarantee rate as the flow valueThe ecological water demand upper threshold of month, and the suitable ecological flow upper threshold of each month forms a annual suitable ecological flow upper threshold flow process.
The month-by-month proper ecological flow of the total stream station and the upper and lower threshold processes thereof can be calculated through model solving. The ecological flow process designed for analyzing the method of the invention is reasonable, the obtained result is compared with Tennant, and the comparison chart is shown in figure 4. The flow rate of the river proper ecological water which is calculated by the method of the embodiment and is from 10 months to 3 months next year accounts for 52% of the annual average flow rate, and the optimal range standard of the Tennent method is reached; the flow of the water suitable for ecological use in the river of 4-9 months accounts for 140% of the annual average flow, and the ecological condition is good. The upper threshold value of the river proper ecological water flow of 10 months to 3 months next year calculated by the method of the embodiment accounts for 92% of the annual average flow, and reaches the 'optimal range' standard of the Tennant method; the upper threshold value of the flow of the proper ecological water of the river of 4-9 months accounts for 200% of the annual average flow, and the ecological condition can be seen to be good. The lower threshold value of the river proper ecological water flow of 10 months to 3 months next year calculated by the method of the embodiment accounts for 34% of the annual average flow, and reaches the 'very good' standard of the Tennant method; the lower threshold value of the flow of the proper ecological water of the river of 4-9 months accounts for 46% of the annual average flow, and the ecological condition is good. In conclusion, the lower threshold set by the method of the embodiment is more serious than the ecological target guarantee in dead seasons, and the method can achieve better flow grade in the process of water harvesting; the proper flow process and the upper threshold process can provide a good survival condition for the ecological system. Meanwhile, the method of the embodiment sets an upper threshold and a lower threshold for the proper ecological flow, instead of setting a subjective ecological flow level like the Tennant method, compared with the method, the ecological flow feasibility field set by the novel method is larger, and the flow is controlled to be above or below a certain threshold in actual operation.
In conclusion, compared with the Tennent method, the method can more accurately reflect and evaluate annual and internationally-changed ecological flow, has better regional applicability and portability, and can consider the most suitable ecological runoff required by aquatic organisms and the corresponding water resource development and utilization degree. The invention provides an ecological flow determination method combining probability density and guarantee rate for the first time, and applies the ecological flow determination method to the month-by-month ecological flow determination time of a river, thereby providing a new thought for realizing ecological flow formulation comprehensively considering natural conditions and social water demand.
While the invention has been described with respect to the preferred embodiments, it will be understood that the invention is not limited thereto, but is capable of modification and variation without departing from the spirit of the invention, as will be apparent to those skilled in the art.
Claims (6)
1. The ecological flow determining method combining the probability density and the guarantee rate is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
step 1, collecting daily flow data of a plurality of years, and finishing to obtain a daily flow frequency curve of 12 months;
step 2, adopting a self-adaptive kernel density function method, and regarding the flow at the position with the maximum probability density as the optimal flow of the month to obtain the annual optimal ecological flow process;
step 3, determining a month-by-month proper ecological flow lower threshold value, and obtaining a year-round proper ecological flow lower threshold value flow process according to the month-by-month proper ecological flow lower threshold value;
step 4, determining an upper threshold value of the month-by-month proper ecological flow rate, and obtaining a flow process of the upper threshold value of the year-round proper ecological flow rate according to the upper threshold value of the month-by-month proper ecological flow rate;
the method for obtaining the daily runoff frequency curve of 12 months in the step 1 comprises the following steps:
firstly, the daily flow data of hydrologic stations for years are arranged and designed, and the first is setAge->Month->The daily flow rate of day is ∈>Wherein->，/>，/>，/>For total years, ->For the number of months per year, <' > a. Of the year>=12,/>Is->Total days corresponding to month; let go of>Age->Daily runoff sequence of month->The daily runoff of a plurality of years is arranged into a daily runoff matrixM：
（1）
Then, a theoretical frequency curve of a 1 month daily runoff sequence is drawn: will beMColumn 1 of the matrixSequencing the daily runoff sequences from large to small according to the daily runoff values, and adapting the daily runoff sequences by using a Pearson III type curve to obtain a 1 month daily runoff theoretical frequency curve;
re-pairingMRepeating the steps of the rest 11 columns of daily runoff sequences of the matrix to obtain daily runoff theoretical frequency curves of all months, and finally obtaining 12 months of daily runoff theoretical frequency curves through finishing;
the method for preparing the annual optimum ecological flow process comprises the following steps:
first, the extract obtained by the arrangement in step 1MA 1 month long series daily flow sequence in the matrix is defined, and a month fixed bandwidth density function is defined; daily flow sequence=/>It obeys a distribution density function of +.>，/>Defining a function:
（2）
wherein,is a density function->Is a nuclear density estimate of (1); />Is a kernel function; />Is a window width or smoothness parameter;mthe sequence length is the daily flow;
then, on the basis of the fixed wide kernel density function, the window width parameter is correctedIs->An adaptive kernel density estimate is obtained in the form shown below:
（3）
in the method, in the process of the invention,is a local bandwidth factor->Is a window width parameter;
then parameter is carried outAnd->Is determined by->、/>After the value of (2), substituting into the formula (3), calculating to obtain a nuclear density estimated value +.>；
Thereby according to the 1 month long series daily flow rate sequenceObtaining the corresponding nuclear density estimation sequence +.>Wherein, the method comprises the steps of, wherein,thus obtaining a density function diagram of the 1 month daily flow rate sequence, selecting the maximum value +.>Its corresponding daily flow value->Namely, the flow rate is 1 month;
finally, repeating the steps for a daily flow sequence of 2-12 months to obtain a proper flow of 2-12 months, wherein the proper ecological flow process of the whole year is composed of the most proper ecological flow of each month;
the expression of the kernel function is:
（4）
in the method, in the process of the invention,Sfor a sample setFor taking into account the variance of +.>Data dispersion in different directions and ranges;
determining parametersAnd->The method of the value is as follows:
initially selecting a bandwidthAnd substituting into formula (5) to obtain preliminary estimate +.>Thereby, local bandwidth factor->The solution formula of (2) is:
（5）
in the method, in the process of the invention,as a sensitivity factor, takeT=0.5，
Window width parameterThe solution formula of (2) is:
（6）
in the method, in the process of the invention,is the number of occurrences of mutually different flow values in the time series, and +.>；
Thereby obtaining、/>Is a value of (2).
2. The ecological flow rate determining method combining probability density and assurance rate according to claim 1, wherein daily flow rate data of not less than 10 years is collected in step 1.
3. The method for determining ecological flow rate combining probability density and guarantee rate according to claim 1, wherein the method for determining the threshold value for the suitable ecological flow rate month by month in the step 3 is as follows:
after the theoretical frequency curve of each month is obtained in the step 1, setting a lower threshold guarantee rateAnd selecting a flow value corresponding to the lower threshold guarantee rate as an ecological water demand threshold of the month, and forming a annual proper ecological flow lower threshold flow process by the proper ecological flow lower threshold of each month.
4. A method for determining ecological flow combining probability density and assurance rate as claimed in claim 3, wherein: lower threshold guarantee rateIs->=90% or 95%.
5. The ecological flow rate determining method combining probability density and assurance rate according to claim 1, wherein: the method for determining the upper threshold value of the month-by-month proper ecological flow in the step 4 is as follows:
after the theoretical frequency curve of each month is obtained in the step 1, setting an upper threshold guarantee rateAnd selecting a flow value corresponding to the upper threshold guarantee rate as an ecological water demand upper threshold of the month, and forming an annual proper ecological flow upper threshold flow process by the proper ecological flow upper threshold of each month.
6. The method for determining ecological traffic by combining probability density and assurance rate according to claim 5, wherein the upper threshold assurance rateSelected as->=10% or 20%.
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