CN111794978A - Safety injection pump operation life prediction method and system - Google Patents
Safety injection pump operation life prediction method and system Download PDFInfo
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- CN111794978A CN111794978A CN202010716714.8A CN202010716714A CN111794978A CN 111794978 A CN111794978 A CN 111794978A CN 202010716714 A CN202010716714 A CN 202010716714A CN 111794978 A CN111794978 A CN 111794978A
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- F—MECHANICAL ENGINEERING; LIGHTING; HEATING; WEAPONS; BLASTING
- F04—POSITIVE - DISPLACEMENT MACHINES FOR LIQUIDS; PUMPS FOR LIQUIDS OR ELASTIC FLUIDS
- F04D—NON-POSITIVE-DISPLACEMENT PUMPS
- F04D15/00—Control, e.g. regulation, of pumps, pumping installations or systems
- F04D15/0088—Testing machines
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F30/00—Computer-aided design [CAD]
- G06F30/20—Design optimisation, verification or simulation
- G06F30/27—Design optimisation, verification or simulation using machine learning, e.g. artificial intelligence, neural networks, support vector machines [SVM] or training a model
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06N—COMPUTING ARRANGEMENTS BASED ON SPECIFIC COMPUTATIONAL MODELS
- G06N7/00—Computing arrangements based on specific mathematical models
- G06N7/01—Probabilistic graphical models, e.g. probabilistic networks
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- G—PHYSICS
- G06—COMPUTING; CALCULATING OR COUNTING
- G06F—ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING
- G06F2111/00—Details relating to CAD techniques
- G06F2111/08—Probabilistic or stochastic CAD
Abstract
The invention discloses a method and a system for predicting the operation life of a safety injection pump, wherein the method comprises the following steps: and recording the corresponding flow characteristic quantity, power characteristic quantity and vibration characteristic quantity under the discharge pressure of the low-pressure safety injection pump in real time during the test. And then processing the characteristic quantity data, extracting a periodic function, a trend function and an irregular fluctuation function according to a function curve of the characteristic quantity and time, and obtaining a failure degree model (a degraded characteristic failure probability prediction model) by using a non-failure range of the characteristic quantity. And then, obtaining the fault probability of the low-pressure safety injection pump in the confidence interval at a certain moment by using a Bayesian method only considering a time sequence, namely, substituting data acquired in real time by using a durability test into a fault degree model, calculating the fault probability of the low-pressure safety injection pump in the set confidence interval at any moment by using the Bayesian method of the time sequence, and stopping the durability test when the fault probability reaches a preset limit value.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the field of life prediction of nuclear equipment, in particular to a method and a system for predicting the operation life of a safety injection pump.
Background
The safety injection pump is one of key devices of a special safety system in a reactor, is used when a coolant pipeline of the reactor is greatly broken and the pressure of the coolant is sharply reduced to submerge a reactor core and ensure the flow of water in the reactor core so as to lead out waste heat. When the coolant pipeline is broken, the coolant in the reactor overflows to generate a large amount of steam and heat, and the safety injection pump operates in the high-temperature severe environment, so that the electronic and electrical equipment is more easily corroded and damaged, and the mechanical equipment is more abnormal in rotating parts.
The low-pressure safety injection pump in the safety injection pump is also one of the key devices of the safety system in the reactor, and the service life of the low-pressure safety injection pump is very important. However, the device belongs to an electromechanical device with high reliability and long service life, the service life of the device is difficult to accurately predict by the conventional universal reliability evaluation method, and the cost is too high and the period is too long by a long-term service life test method.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method and a system for predicting the operation life of a safety injection pump; by developing a short-term performance test and utilizing a data extraction and processing mode of characteristic parameters, the operation life of the low-pressure safety injection pump is predicted, and the accuracy of a life prediction result under the conditions of low cost and short time is ensured.
The invention is realized by the following technical scheme:
a safety injection pump operation life prediction method comprises the following steps:
s1, carrying out a performance test on the safety injection pump to obtain a first group of test parameters and a first group of degradation characteristic parameters of the safety injection pump;
s2, fitting a function relation of the test parameters of each performance test along with time according to the first group of test parameters, and fitting a function relation of each degradation characteristic parameter of each performance test along with time according to the first group of test parameters;
s3, constructing a coupling relation between the time-dependent functional relation of each test parameter of the performance test and the time-dependent functional relation of each degradation characteristic parameter of the performance test;
s4, constructing a degradation characteristic fault probability prediction model according to the coupling relation;
s5, substituting the first group of test parameters obtained by the performance test into the degradation characteristic fault probability prediction model to obtain an empirical fault probability;
s6, carrying out a durability test on the safety injection pump to obtain a second test parameter and a second group of degradation characteristic parameters of the safety injection pump;
s7, substituting a second group of test parameters and a second group of degradation characteristic parameters obtained according to the durability test into a degradation characteristic fault probability prediction model to obtain a sample fault probability;
s8, obtaining the predicted fault probability under the Bayes method only considering the time sequence, and when the predicted fault probability reaches a preset limit value, considering the time as the service life of the safety injection pump; the predicted fault probability is obtained through a Bayesian method according to the empirical fault probability and the sample fault probability.
The method provided by the invention combines tests and theoretical analysis, provides a performance test method for the low-pressure safety injection pump, and provides a plurality of key characteristic parameters reflecting the service life of the low-pressure safety injection pump. And predicting the service life of the low-pressure safety injection pump according to a specific data processing method and a judgment criterion. The prediction method is low in cost, short in period and high in accuracy. It is characterized in that: 1) the test contents are designed by referring to the actual operation condition of the low-pressure safe injection pump, and the test data is more accurate and effective. (2) The method has the advantages that the test time is far shorter than the life test time, and the cost and the time are saved. (3) The selected characteristic quantity can accurately reflect the performance state of the low-pressure safe injection pump. (4) The theoretical evaluation method of the service life is combined with the test of a specific object, so that the method is more accurate and reliable.
Preferably, the further scheme is as follows:
the first set of test parameters includes: electric signal frequency C of safety injection pumpProperty of (2)Pressure difference I between inlet and outlet of safety injection pumpProperty of (2)Medium temperature W of safety injection pumpProperty of (2)；
The first set of degradation characteristic parameters includes: of safety injection pumpsFlow rate QProperty of (2)Safety injection pump operating power GProperty of (2)Operation vibration A of safety injection pumpProperty of (2)；
The specific coupling relationship for constructing the function relationship of each test parameter of the performance test along with time and the function relationship of each degradation characteristic parameter of the performance test along with time is as follows:
Qi(t)＝WQi(t)+CQi(t)+IQi(t)；
Gi(t)＝WGi(t)+CGi(t)+IGi(t)；
Ai(t)＝WAi(t)+CAi(t)+IAi(t)；
+ in the above description means coupling;
WQi(t)、WGi(t)、WAi(t) according to the medium temperature W when the outlet pressure P of the safety injection pump is in the ith stageProperty of (2)Fitting a trend function of the medium temperature along with time;
CQi(t)、CGi(t)、CAi(t) is measured according to the electrical signal frequency C when the outlet pressure P of the safety injection pump is at the ith levelProperty of (2)Fitting a periodic function of the frequency of the electrical signal along with time;
IQi(t)、IGi(t)、IAi(t) is the pressure difference I according to the inlet and outlet pressure when the outlet pressure P of the safety injection pump is at the ith levelProperty of (2)Fitting an irregular function of the pressure difference of the inlet and the outlet with time;
Qi(t) is the flow Q when the outlet pressure P of the safety injection pump is in the ith stageProperty of (2)Fitting a function of the flow rate with time;
Gi(t) according to the operating power G when the outlet pressure P of the safety injection pump is in the ith stageProperty of (2)Fitting a function of the operating power over time;
Ai(t) vibration A according to operation when outlet pressure P of safety injection pump is in ith stageProperty of (2)The fitted operating vibration is a function of time.
Preferably, the further scheme is as follows:
the performance test specifically comprises the following steps:
under the external environment temperature of the safety injection pump at normal temperature, medium temperature and high temperature, the medium temperature of the safety injection pump is firstly increased to the high temperature under the preset working condition, then the outlet throttle valve is gradually closed, the outlet pressure of the safety injection pump of the pump is increased step by step, each step is continuously operated, and the first group of test parameters and the first group of degradation characteristic parameters are recorded.
Preferably, the further scheme is as follows:
the durability test specifically comprises:
the safety injection pump is subjected to accumulative continuous operation test at normal temperature, full load and supplied medium, a second group of test parameters and a second group of degradation characteristic parameters are measured and recorded every hour in the test,
the second set of test parameters included: electric signal frequency C of safety injection pumpDurablePressure difference I between inlet and outlet of safety injection pumpDurableMedium temperature W of safety injection pumpDurable；
The second set of degradation characteristic parameters includes: flow Q of safety injection pumpDurableSafety injection pump operating power GDurableOperation vibration A of safety injection pumpDurable。
Preferably, the further scheme is as follows:
the degradation characteristic fault probability prediction model is F (t):
F(t)＝1-P﹛T≥tdesign of﹜＝P﹛Q(t)≥Q0And G (t) is less than or equal to G0And A (t) is less than or equal to A0﹜；
P (mean represents a probability formula; t represents the predicted operating life of the test, TDesign ofRepresents the design target lifetime, Q0Representing a preset non-fault range flow characteristic threshold, G0Representing a threshold value of a characteristic quantity of operating power, A, within a preset non-fault range0Representing a threshold value of the operating vibration characteristic quantity within a preset non-fault range;
q (t) is the flow rate as a function of time;
g (t) is a function of operating power over time;
a (t) is a function of operating vibration over time.
Preferably, the further scheme is as follows:
the normal temperature is 25 ℃, the medium temperature is 25-90 ℃ and does not contain 25 ℃, the temperature is 90 ℃, and the high temperature is 90-200 ℃ and does not contain 90 ℃, and the temperature is 200 ℃.
A safety injection pump operation life prediction system comprises: measuring system
The measurement system includes:
an inlet regulating valve is arranged on the inlet of the safety injection pump, an outlet regulating valve is arranged on the outlet of the safety injection pump,
the inlet regulating valve and the outlet regulating valve are controlled by a controller, and the controller is controlled by the instruction of an industrial personal computer;
an outlet pressure gauge, a differential pressure transmitter and a flowmeter are arranged on the outlet of the safety injection pump,
an accelerometer is arranged on the safety injection pump body;
the safety injection pump is electrically controlled by the industrial personal computer,
the device also comprises an electrical measuring device for measuring the safety injection pump;
the industrial personal computer obtains flow through the flowmeter, obtains pressure difference of an inlet and an outlet through the pressure difference transmitter, obtains acceleration through the accelerometer and then processes the acceleration into operation vibration, and obtains operation power, electric signal frequency, electric signal voltage and electric signal current through the electric measuring device.
A safety injection pump operation life prediction system comprises: the prediction system is used for predicting the prediction of the system,
the prediction system comprises:
the device is used for fitting the function relation of the test parameters of each performance test along with time according to the first group of test parameters;
the device is used for constructing a coupling relation between the function relation of each test parameter of the performance test along with time and the function relation of each degradation characteristic parameter of the performance test along with time;
a device for constructing a degradation characteristic fault probability prediction model according to the coupling relation;
the device is used for obtaining the experience fault probability by substituting a first group of test parameters obtained by the performance test into the degradation characteristic fault probability prediction model;
the device is used for obtaining the failure probability of the sample by substituting a second group of test parameters and a second group of degradation characteristic parameters obtained by the durability test into a degradation characteristic failure probability prediction model;
a device for obtaining the prediction failure probability under the Bayes method only considering the time sequence;
when the predicted failure probability reaches a preset limit value, judging the time at the moment as a device for prolonging the service life of the safety injection pump;
the predicted fault probability is obtained through a Bayes method according to the empirical fault probability and the sample fault probability.
The safety injection pump is a low-pressure safety injection pump.
The invention has the following application prospect: a large number of electromechanical devices continuously operated by pumps exist in the industrial fields of nuclear energy, energy power, petrochemical industry, aerospace and the like, the state monitoring and the operation life prediction of the electromechanical devices are related to the reliability of a system device, and the method has important significance for evaluating the reliability of the devices through a reasonable life prediction method.
The invention provides a novel method for predicting the service life of the reactor low-pressure safety injection pump, and the method can be applied to the design and identification service of the low-pressure safety injection pump.
The above steps of the invention can be summarized as the following technical route:
firstly, low-temperature, medium-temperature and high-temperature performance tests are carried out on the low-pressure safety injection pump, and then a durability test is carried out.
And recording the corresponding flow characteristic quantity, power characteristic quantity and vibration characteristic quantity under the discharge pressure of the low-pressure safety injection pump in real time during the test. And then processing the characteristic quantity data, extracting a periodic function, a trend function and an irregular fluctuation function according to a function curve of the characteristic quantity and time, and obtaining a failure degree model (a degraded characteristic failure probability prediction model) by using a non-failure range of the characteristic quantity. And then, obtaining the fault probability of the low-pressure safety injection pump in the confidence interval at a certain moment by using a Bayesian method only considering a time sequence, namely, substituting data acquired in real time by using a durability test into a fault degree model, calculating the fault probability of the low-pressure safety injection pump in the set confidence interval at any moment by using the Bayesian method of the time sequence, and stopping the durability test when the fault probability reaches a preset limit value. The operating time at this time is the predicted life.
The invention has the following advantages and beneficial effects:
1. the test contents are designed by referring to the actual operation condition of the low-pressure safe injection pump, and the test data is more accurate and effective.
2. The test content of the method can accurately reflect the service life loss of the low-pressure safety injection pump under the actual operation condition, but compared with the test of a full-service-life test, the test time is shorter. Therefore, the test time of the method is far shorter than the life test time, and the cost and the time are saved.
3. The selected characteristic quantity can accurately reflect the performance state of the low-pressure safe injection pump.
4. The method adopts a Bayesian method based on a certain amount of test data, and is more accurate compared with the universal prediction methods such as national standard and the like. The method is a theoretical evaluation method of the service life and is combined with the test of a specific object, so that the method is more accurate and reliable.
In a word, compared with the traditional prediction method, the method has the advantage that the cost and time are saved on the premise of accurately predicting the service life of the low-pressure safe injection pump.
The system corresponding to the invention consists of experiment and theoretical analysis. The method and the system effectively solve the problem of more accurate prediction of the service life of the low-pressure safe injection pump with high reliability and long service life.
The method fully considers the environmental conditions and the operation conditions of the equipment under the normal and accident conditions of the reactor, and the test content truly reflects the damage condition of the equipment during actual operation, so that the obtained data is more true and effective. In theoretical analysis, an approximation method (fitting) is adopted to obtain a degradation characteristic fault prediction model of the equipment according to test data, meanwhile, the test data of the conventional low-pressure safety injection pump is used as prior information, and a Bayesian method is adopted to obtain a failure difference density function of the equipment. Theoretical analysis is combined with test data, so that the service life of the low-pressure safe injection pump is accurately predicted. Compared with a full-period life test, the method has the advantages of low cost and short test period. Compared with the traditional general life theoretical prediction, the method has higher accuracy.
The method designs test contents and a method according to the actual operating condition of the low-pressure safe injection pump, develops performance tests of the safety injection pump in the low-temperature, medium-temperature and high-temperature operating environments of the reactor, and enables the obtained data to be more accurate and effective.
Drawings
The accompanying drawings, which are included to provide a further understanding of the embodiments of the invention and are incorporated in and constitute a part of this application, illustrate embodiment(s) of the invention and together with the description serve to explain the principles of the invention. In the drawings:
FIG. 1 is a schematic structural diagram of the present invention.
FIG. 2a is a graph showing the relationship between predicted lifetime distribution and degradation value
FIG. 2b is a graph showing the relationship between predicted lifetime distribution and degradation value
Detailed Description
In order to make the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention more apparent, the present invention is further described in detail below with reference to examples and accompanying drawings, and the exemplary embodiments and descriptions thereof are only used for explaining the present invention and are not meant to limit the present invention.
Example 1
As shown in fig. 1, 2a, 2 b:
a safety injection pump operation life prediction method comprises the following steps:
s1, carrying out a performance test on the safety injection pump to obtain a first group of test parameters and a first group of degradation characteristic parameters of the safety injection pump;
s2, fitting a function relation of the test parameters of each performance test along with time according to the first group of test parameters, and fitting a function relation of each degradation characteristic parameter of each performance test along with time according to the first group of test parameters;
s3, constructing a coupling relation between the time-dependent functional relation of each test parameter of the performance test and the time-dependent functional relation of each degradation characteristic parameter of the performance test;
s4, constructing a degradation characteristic fault probability prediction model according to the coupling relation;
s5, substituting the first group of test parameters obtained by the performance test into the degradation characteristic fault probability prediction model to obtain an empirical fault probability;
s6, carrying out a durability test on the safety injection pump to obtain a second test parameter and a second group of degradation characteristic parameters of the safety injection pump;
s7, substituting a second group of test parameters and a second group of degradation characteristic parameters obtained according to the durability test into a degradation characteristic fault probability prediction model to obtain a sample fault probability;
s8, obtaining the predicted fault probability under the Bayes method only considering the time sequence, and when the predicted fault probability reaches a preset limit value, considering the time as the service life of the safety injection pump; the predicted fault probability is obtained through a Bayesian method according to the empirical fault probability and the sample fault probability.
The method provided by the invention combines tests and theoretical analysis, provides a performance test method for the low-pressure safety injection pump, and provides a plurality of key characteristic parameters reflecting the service life of the low-pressure safety injection pump. And predicting the service life of the low-pressure safety injection pump according to a specific data processing method and a judgment criterion. The prediction method is low in cost, short in period and high in accuracy. It is characterized in that: 1) the test contents are designed by referring to the actual operation condition of the low-pressure safe injection pump, and the test data is more accurate and effective. (2) The method has the advantages that the test time is far shorter than the life test time, and the cost and the time are saved. (3) The selected characteristic quantity can accurately reflect the performance state of the low-pressure safe injection pump. (4) The theoretical evaluation method of the service life is combined with the test of a specific object, so that the method is more accurate and reliable.
Preferably, the further scheme is as follows:
the first set of test parameters includes: electric signal frequency C of safety injection pumpProperty of (2)Pressure difference I between inlet and outlet of safety injection pumpProperty of (2)Medium temperature W of safety injection pumpProperty of (2)；
The first set of degradation characteristic parameters includes: flow Q of safety injection pumpProperty of (2)Safety injection pump operating power GProperty of (2)Operation vibration A of safety injection pumpProperty of (2)；
The specific coupling relationship for constructing the function relationship of each test parameter of the performance test along with time and the function relationship of each degradation characteristic parameter of the performance test along with time is as follows:
Qi(t)＝WQi(t)+CQi(t)+IQi(t)；
Gi(t)＝WGi(t)+CGi(t)+IGi(t)；
Ai(t)＝WAi(t)+CAi(t)+IAi(t)；
+ in the above description means coupling;
WQi(t)、WGi(t)、WAi(t) according to the medium temperature W when the outlet pressure P of the safety injection pump is in the ith stageProperty of (2)Fitting a trend function of the medium temperature along with time;
CQi(t)、CGi(t)、CAi(t) is measured according to the electrical signal frequency C when the outlet pressure P of the safety injection pump is at the ith levelProperty of (2)Fitting a periodic function of the frequency of the electrical signal along with time;
IQi(t)、IGi(t)、IAi(t) is the pressure difference I according to the inlet and outlet pressure when the outlet pressure P of the safety injection pump is at the ith levelProperty of (2)Fitting an irregular function of the pressure difference of the inlet and the outlet with time;
Qi(t) is the flow Q when the outlet pressure P of the safety injection pump is in the ith stageProperty of (2)Fitting a function of the flow rate with time;
Gi(t) according to the operating power G when the outlet pressure P of the safety injection pump is in the ith stageProperty of (2)Fitting a function of the operating power over time;
Ai(t) vibration A according to operation when outlet pressure P of safety injection pump is in ith stageProperty of (2)The fitted operating vibration is a function of time.
Preferably, the further scheme is as follows:
the performance test specifically comprises the following steps:
under the external environment temperature of the safety injection pump at normal temperature, medium temperature and high temperature, the medium temperature of the safety injection pump is firstly increased to the high temperature under the preset working condition, then the outlet throttle valve is gradually closed, the outlet pressure of the safety injection pump of the pump is increased step by step, each step is continuously operated, and the first group of test parameters and the first group of degradation characteristic parameters are recorded.
Preferably, the further scheme is as follows:
the durability test specifically comprises:
the safety injection pump is subjected to accumulative continuous operation test at normal temperature, full load and supplied medium, a second group of test parameters and a second group of degradation characteristic parameters are measured and recorded every hour in the test,
the second set of test parameters included: electric signal frequency C of safety injection pumpDurablePressure difference I between inlet and outlet of safety injection pumpDurableMedium temperature W of safety injection pumpDurable；
The second set of degradation characteristic parameters includes: flow Q of safety injection pumpDurableSafety injection pump operating power GDurableOperation vibration A of safety injection pumpDurable。
Preferably, the further scheme is as follows:
the degradation characteristic fault probability prediction model is F (t):
F(t)＝1-P﹛T≥tdesign of﹜＝P﹛Q(t)≥Q0And G (t) is less than or equal to G0And A (t) is less than or equal to A0﹜；
P (mean represents a probability formula; t represents the predicted operating life of the test, TDesign ofRepresents the design target lifetime, Q0Representing a preset non-fault range flow characteristic threshold, G0Representing a threshold value of a characteristic quantity of operating power, A, within a preset non-fault range0Representing a threshold value of the operating vibration characteristic quantity within a preset non-fault range;
q (t) is the flow rate as a function of time;
g (t) is a function of operating power over time;
a (t) is a function of operating vibration over time.
Preferably, the further scheme is as follows:
the normal temperature is 25 ℃, the medium temperature is 25-90 ℃ and does not contain 25 ℃, the temperature is 90 ℃, and the high temperature is 90-200 ℃ and does not contain 90 ℃, and the temperature is 200 ℃.
As in fig. 2a and 2b, t1For test time, t2The service life of the low-pressure safety injection pump is extrapolated to the failure value according to the test data.
If the difference between the failure probability and the effective probability is not large when t2 is substituted into the model as shown in fig. 2a, and the performance state of the pump at that time cannot be determined, the test is continued. Until FIG. 2b appears, at t of FIG. 2b2The failure probability of the pump is extremely high at any moment, and the pump can be judged to have a fault. At this time, the test may be stopped for a test time t1，t2The life is predicted for a low pressure safety syringe pump.
Example 2
A safety injection pump operation life prediction system comprises: measuring system
The measurement system includes:
an inlet regulating valve is arranged on the inlet of the safety injection pump, an outlet regulating valve is arranged on the outlet of the safety injection pump,
the inlet regulating valve and the outlet regulating valve are controlled by a controller, and the controller is controlled by the instruction of an industrial personal computer;
an outlet pressure gauge, a differential pressure transmitter and a flowmeter are arranged on the outlet of the safety injection pump,
an accelerometer is arranged on the safety injection pump body;
the safety injection pump is electrically controlled by the industrial personal computer,
the device also comprises an electrical measuring device for measuring the safety injection pump;
the industrial personal computer obtains flow through the flowmeter, obtains pressure difference of an inlet and an outlet through the pressure difference transmitter, obtains acceleration through the accelerometer and then processes the acceleration into operation vibration, and obtains operation power, electric signal frequency, electric signal voltage and electric signal current through the electric measuring device.
A safety injection pump operation life prediction system comprises: the prediction system is used for predicting the prediction of the system,
the prediction system comprises:
the device is used for fitting the function relation of the test parameters of each performance test along with time according to the first group of test parameters;
the device is used for constructing a coupling relation between the function relation of each test parameter of the performance test along with time and the function relation of each degradation characteristic parameter of the performance test along with time;
a device for constructing a degradation characteristic fault probability prediction model according to the coupling relation;
the device is used for obtaining the experience fault probability by substituting a first group of test parameters obtained by the performance test into the degradation characteristic fault probability prediction model;
the device is used for obtaining the failure probability of the sample by substituting a second group of test parameters and a second group of degradation characteristic parameters obtained by the durability test into a degradation characteristic failure probability prediction model;
a device for obtaining the prediction failure probability under the Bayes method only considering the time sequence;
when the predicted failure probability reaches a preset limit value, judging the time at the moment as a device for prolonging the service life of the safety injection pump;
the predicted fault probability is obtained through a Bayes method according to the empirical fault probability and the sample fault probability.
The safety injection pump is a low-pressure safety injection pump.
The invention has the following application prospect: a large number of electromechanical devices continuously operated by pumps exist in the industrial fields of nuclear energy, energy power, petrochemical industry, aerospace and the like, the state monitoring and the operation life prediction of the electromechanical devices are related to the reliability of a system device, and the method has important significance for evaluating the reliability of the devices through a reasonable life prediction method.
The invention provides a novel method for predicting the service life of the reactor low-pressure safety injection pump, and the method can be applied to the design and identification service of the low-pressure safety injection pump.
The above steps of the invention can be summarized as the following technical route:
firstly, low-temperature, medium-temperature and high-temperature performance tests are carried out on the low-pressure safety injection pump, and then a durability test is carried out.
And recording the corresponding flow characteristic quantity, power characteristic quantity and vibration characteristic quantity under the discharge pressure of the low-pressure safety injection pump in real time during the test. And then processing the characteristic quantity data, extracting a periodic function, a trend function and an irregular fluctuation function according to a function curve of the characteristic quantity and time, and obtaining a failure degree model (a degraded characteristic failure probability prediction model) by using a non-failure range of the characteristic quantity. And then, obtaining the fault probability of the low-pressure safety injection pump in the confidence interval at a certain moment by using a Bayesian method only considering a time sequence, namely, substituting data acquired in real time by using a durability test into a fault degree model, calculating the fault probability of the low-pressure safety injection pump in the set confidence interval at any moment by using the Bayesian method of the time sequence, and stopping the durability test when the fault probability reaches a preset limit value. The operating time at this time is the predicted life.
The invention has the following advantages and beneficial effects:
1. the test contents are designed by referring to the actual operation condition of the low-pressure safe injection pump, and the test data is more accurate and effective.
2. The test content of the method can accurately reflect the service life loss of the low-pressure safety injection pump under the actual operation condition, but compared with the test of a full-service-life test, the test time is shorter. Therefore, the test time of the method is far shorter than the life test time, and the cost and the time are saved.
3. The selected characteristic quantity can accurately reflect the performance state of the low-pressure safe injection pump.
4. The method adopts a Bayesian method based on a certain amount of test data, and is more accurate compared with the universal prediction methods such as national standard and the like. The method is a theoretical evaluation method of the service life and is combined with the test of a specific object, so that the method is more accurate and reliable.
In a word, compared with the traditional prediction method, the method has the advantage that the cost and time are saved on the premise of accurately predicting the service life of the low-pressure safe injection pump.
The system corresponding to the invention consists of experiment and theoretical analysis. The method and the system effectively solve the problem of more accurate prediction of the service life of the low-pressure safe injection pump with high reliability and long service life.
The method fully considers the environmental conditions and the operation conditions of the equipment under the normal and accident conditions of the reactor, and the test content truly reflects the damage condition of the equipment during actual operation, so that the obtained data is more true and effective. In theoretical analysis, an approximation method (fitting) is adopted to obtain a degradation characteristic fault prediction model of the equipment according to test data, meanwhile, the test data of the conventional low-pressure safety injection pump is used as prior information, and a Bayesian method is adopted to obtain a failure difference density function of the equipment. Theoretical analysis is combined with test data, so that the service life of the low-pressure safe injection pump is accurately predicted. Compared with a full-period life test, the method has the advantages of low cost and short test period. Compared with the traditional general life theoretical prediction, the method has higher accuracy.
The method designs test contents and a method according to the actual operating condition of the low-pressure safe injection pump, develops performance tests of the safety injection pump in the low-temperature, medium-temperature and high-temperature operating environments of the reactor, and enables the obtained data to be more accurate and effective.
The above-mentioned embodiments are intended to illustrate the objects, technical solutions and advantages of the present invention in further detail, and it should be understood that the above-mentioned embodiments are merely exemplary embodiments of the present invention, and are not intended to limit the scope of the present invention, and any modifications, equivalent substitutions, improvements and the like made within the spirit and principle of the present invention should be included in the scope of the present invention.
Claims (9)
1. A safety injection pump operation life prediction method is characterized by comprising the following steps:
s1, carrying out a performance test on the safety injection pump to obtain a first group of test parameters and a first group of degradation characteristic parameters of the safety injection pump;
s2, fitting a function relation of the test parameters of each performance test along with time according to the first group of test parameters, and fitting a function relation of each degradation characteristic parameter of each performance test along with time according to the first group of test parameters;
s3, constructing a coupling relation between the time-dependent functional relation of each test parameter of the performance test and the time-dependent functional relation of each degradation characteristic parameter of the performance test;
s4, constructing a degradation characteristic fault probability prediction model according to the coupling relation;
s5, substituting the first group of test parameters obtained by the performance test into the degradation characteristic fault probability prediction model to obtain an empirical fault probability;
s6, carrying out a durability test on the safety injection pump to obtain a second test parameter and a second group of degradation characteristic parameters of the safety injection pump;
s7, substituting a second group of test parameters and a second group of degradation characteristic parameters obtained according to the durability test into a degradation characteristic fault probability prediction model to obtain a sample fault probability;
s8, obtaining the predicted fault probability under the Bayes method only considering the time sequence, and when the predicted fault probability reaches a preset limit value, considering the time as the service life of the safety injection pump; the predicted fault probability is obtained through a Bayesian method according to the empirical fault probability and the sample fault probability.
2. The method for predicting the service life of the safety injection pump according to claim 1,
the first set of test parameters includes: electric signal frequency C of safety injection pumpProperty of (2)Pressure difference I between inlet and outlet of safety injection pumpProperty of (2)Medium temperature W of safety injection pumpProperty of (2)；
The first set of degradation characteristic parameters includes: flow Q of safety injection pumpProperty of (2)Safety injection pump operating power GProperty of (2)Operation vibration A of safety injection pumpProperty of (2)；
The specific coupling relationship for constructing the function relationship of each test parameter of the performance test along with time and the function relationship of each degradation characteristic parameter of the performance test along with time is as follows:
Qi(t)＝WQi(t)+CQi(t)+IQi(t)；
Gi(t)＝WGi(t)+CGi(t)+IGi(t)；
Ai(t)＝WAi(t)+CAi(t)+IAi(t)；
+ in the above description means coupling;
WQi(t)、WGi(t)、WAi(t) according to the medium temperature W when the outlet pressure P of the safety injection pump is in the ith stageProperty of (2)Fitting a trend function of the medium temperature along with time;
CQi(t)、CGi(t)、CAi(t) is measured according to the electrical signal frequency C when the outlet pressure P of the safety injection pump is at the ith levelProperty of (2)Fitting a periodic function of the frequency of the electrical signal along with time;
IQi(t)、IGi(t)、IAi(t) is the pressure difference I according to the inlet and outlet pressure when the outlet pressure P of the safety injection pump is at the ith levelProperty of (2)Fitting an irregular function of the pressure difference of the inlet and the outlet with time;
Qi(t) is the flow Q when the outlet pressure P of the safety injection pump is in the ith stageProperty of (2)Fitting a function of the flow rate with time;
Gi(t) according to the operating power G when the outlet pressure P of the safety injection pump is in the ith stageProperty of (2)Fitting a function of the operating power over time;
Ai(t) vibration A according to operation when outlet pressure P of safety injection pump is in ith stageProperty of (2)The fitted operating vibration is a function of time.
3. The method for predicting the service life of the safety injection pump according to claim 1,
the performance test specifically comprises the following steps:
under the external environment temperature of the safety injection pump at normal temperature, medium temperature and high temperature, the medium temperature of the safety injection pump is firstly increased to the high temperature under the preset working condition, then the outlet throttle valve is gradually closed, the outlet pressure of the safety injection pump of the pump is increased step by step, each step is continuously operated, and the first group of test parameters and the first group of degradation characteristic parameters are recorded.
4. The method for predicting the service life of the safety injection pump according to claim 1,
the durability test specifically comprises:
the safety injection pump is subjected to accumulative continuous operation test at normal temperature, full load and supplied medium, a second group of test parameters and a second group of degradation characteristic parameters are measured and recorded every hour in the test,
the second set of test parameters included: electric signal frequency C of safety injection pumpDurablePressure difference I between inlet and outlet of safety injection pumpDurableMedium temperature W of safety injection pumpDurable；
The second set of degradation characteristic parameters includes: flow Q of safety injection pumpDurableSafety injection pump operating power GDurableOperation vibration A of safety injection pumpDurable。
5. The method for predicting the service life of the safety injection pump according to claim 1,
the degradation characteristic fault probability prediction model is F (t):
F(t)＝1-P﹛T≥tdesign of﹜＝P﹛Q(t)≥Q0And G (t) is less than or equal to G0And A (t) is less than or equal to A0﹜；
P (mean represents a probability formula; t represents the predicted operating life of the test, TDesign ofRepresents the design target lifetime, Q0Representing a preset non-fault range flow characteristic threshold, G0Representing a threshold value of a characteristic quantity of operating power, A, within a preset non-fault range0Representing a threshold value of the operating vibration characteristic quantity within a preset non-fault range;
q (t) is the flow rate as a function of time;
g (t) is a function of operating power over time;
a (t) is a function of operating vibration over time.
6. The method for predicting the service life of a safety injection pump according to claim 3,
the normal temperature is 25 ℃, the medium temperature is 25-90 ℃ and does not contain 25 ℃, the temperature is 90 ℃, and the high temperature is 90-200 ℃ and does not contain 90 ℃, and the temperature is 200 ℃.
7. A safety injection pump operation life prediction system is characterized by comprising: measuring system
The measurement system includes:
an inlet regulating valve is arranged on the inlet of the safety injection pump, an outlet regulating valve is arranged on the outlet of the safety injection pump,
the inlet regulating valve and the outlet regulating valve are controlled by a controller, and the controller is controlled by the instruction of an industrial personal computer;
an outlet pressure gauge, a differential pressure transmitter and a flowmeter are arranged on the outlet of the safety injection pump,
an accelerometer is arranged on the safety injection pump body;
the safety injection pump is electrically controlled by the industrial personal computer;
the device also comprises an electrical measuring device for measuring the safety injection pump;
the industrial personal computer obtains flow through the flowmeter, obtains pressure difference of an inlet and an outlet through the pressure difference transmitter, obtains acceleration through the accelerometer and then processes the acceleration into operation vibration, and obtains operation power, electric signal frequency, electric signal voltage and electric signal current through the electric measuring device.
8. The operational life prediction system of a safety injection pump of claim 7, comprising: the prediction system is used for predicting the prediction of the system,
the prediction system comprises:
the device is used for fitting the function relation of the test parameters of each performance test along with time according to the first group of test parameters;
the device is used for constructing a coupling relation between the function relation of each test parameter of the performance test along with time and the function relation of each degradation characteristic parameter of the performance test along with time;
a device for constructing a degradation characteristic fault probability prediction model according to the coupling relation;
the device is used for obtaining the experience fault probability by substituting a first group of test parameters obtained by the performance test into the degradation characteristic fault probability prediction model;
the device is used for obtaining the failure probability of the sample by substituting a second group of test parameters and a second group of degradation characteristic parameters obtained by the durability test into a degradation characteristic failure probability prediction model;
a device for obtaining the prediction failure probability under the Bayes method only considering the time sequence;
when the predicted failure probability reaches a preset limit value, judging the time at the moment as a device for prolonging the service life of the safety injection pump;
the predicted fault probability is obtained through a Bayes method according to the empirical fault probability and the sample fault probability.
9. The system of claim 7, wherein the safety pump is a low pressure safety syringe pump.
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