CN111695799B - Method for evaluating dependence degree of city on external water resource - Google Patents

Method for evaluating dependence degree of city on external water resource Download PDF

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CN111695799B
CN111695799B CN202010494094.8A CN202010494094A CN111695799B CN 111695799 B CN111695799 B CN 111695799B CN 202010494094 A CN202010494094 A CN 202010494094A CN 111695799 B CN111695799 B CN 111695799B
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张信信
赵旭
侯思雨
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for evaluating the dependence degree of a city on external water resources, belonging to the technical field of water resource management. Determining external water footprints, virtual total water outlet quantity and virtual total water inlet quantity of each economic department of a city according to water consumption of each economic department of the city; acquiring urban domestic water consumption and external water footprints of each economic department of a city, and determining the 'siphon' of the urban water; acquiring the total product export and import of a city, the total virtual water export and import of each economic department of the city, and determining the export value strength and import value strength of the city; determining the 'siphon' of the water productivity of the city according to the outlet value intensity and the inlet value intensity of the city; according to the 'siphon' of the water quantity and the 'siphon' of the water productivity of the city, the dependence degree of the city on external water resources is evaluated. The method is simple in data acquisition, can accurately evaluate the dependence degree of the city on external water resources, and provides reliable data support for water resource management of the city.

Description

Method for evaluating dependence degree of city on external water resource
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of water resource management, and particularly relates to a method for evaluating the dependence degree of a city on external water resources.
Background
Previous research mostly considers water shortage as a local water resource management problem, and virtual water research emphasizes the important influence of external consumption and trade factors on local water resources. For example, a city may meet local end-consumption needs by importing more virtual water rather than using local water resources. Although relying on virtual water imports can relieve the water supply pressure of municipal water networks to some extent, there is also some risk. Through economic activity, cities can exceed local physical water supplies with external water footprint supplies via a "siphon" effect (the economic strength of cities dictates that they can purchase large quantities of products to the outside, thus importing large quantities of virtual water to the inside). This "siphoning" effect can help cities shift local water resource pressure outward and produce high value goods and services using locally limited physical water resources. At present, a method capable of effectively evaluating the dependence degree of a city on external water resources is lacked in the prior art.
Disclosure of Invention
In order to solve the defects in the prior art, the invention provides a method for evaluating the dependence degree of a city on external water resources, which can accurately evaluate the dependence degree of the city on the external water resources and provide reliable data support for water resource management of the city.
In order to achieve the purpose, the technical scheme adopted by the invention is as follows: a method for evaluating city dependence on external water resources, comprising: determining external water footprints, virtual total water outlet quantity and virtual total water inlet quantity of each economic department of a city based on an input-output model according to water consumption of each economic department of the city; acquiring urban domestic water consumption, and determining urban water quantity siphon according to external water footprints of each economic department of the city; acquiring the total product export and import of a city, and determining the export value strength and import value strength of the city according to the virtual total water export and import of each economic department of the city; determining the 'siphon' of the water productivity of the city according to the outlet value intensity and the inlet value intensity of the city; according to the 'siphon' of the water quantity and the 'siphon' of the water productivity of the city, the dependence degree of the city on external water resources is evaluated.
Further, the input-output model is as follows:
x r ＝(I-A rr ) -1 (y rr +∑ s≠r e rs ) (1)
in the formula, A rr ＝Z rr ·(x r ) -1 Is a technical coefficient matrix of the city r, representing the total output x of the city r per unit r Intermediate investment value Z of corresponding departments rr A matrix; y is rr Is the city r local ultimate consumption; e.g. of the type rs Is the export volume that city r produces to meet the ultimate consumption needs of region s; i is the identity matrix.
Further, the external water footprints of each economic department of the city are obtained by adopting a formula (2):
ewf r ＝Σ s≠r d s (I-A ss ) -1 e sr (2)
in the formula, ewf r Is the external water footprint of each economic sector of city r; d s Is the direct water consumption intensity of each economic department of the city s; a. the ss Is a technical coefficient matrix of the city s, which represents the total output x of the city s per unit s Corresponding intermediate investment value Z of each economic department ss A matrix; e.g. of the type sr Representing the output of city s to meet the ultimate consumption needs of city rThe mouth size.
Further, the water quantity 'siphon' of the city is obtained by adopting a formula (3):
Figure BDA0002522132120000021
in the formula, WVL r Is the siphon of water quantity of city r; PWC r Is the water consumption of city r.
Further, the virtual total water outlet amount of each economic department of the city is obtained by adopting a formula (4):
vwe r ＝d r (I-A rr ) -1 Σ s≠r e rs (4)
in the formula, vwe r Is the virtual total water outlet quantity of each economic department of the city r; d r Is a direct water consumption intensity vector of each economic department of the city r; sigma s≠r e rs Is the sum of the product outlets of city r to city s.
Further, the total virtual water inlet amount of each economic department of the city is obtained by adopting a formula (5):
vwi r ＝ewf r (5)
in the formula, vwi r Is the virtual total water import quantity of each economic department of the city r.
Further, the export value intensity of the city is obtained by adopting a public notice (6):
vie r ＝Σ s≠r e rs /vwe r (6)
in the formula, vie r Is the export value intensity of the city r.
Further, the import value intensity of the city is obtained by adopting a public notice (7):
vii r ＝Σ s≠r e sr /vw ir (7)
in the formula vii r Is the import value intensity of city r; sigma s≠r e sr Is the sum of the product imports of city r to city s.
Further, the urban water productivity "siphon" is obtained by using the formula (8):
Figure BDA0002522132120000031
in the formula, WPL r Is the water producing power 'siphon' of city r.
Further, the city water volume is "siphoned" WVL r >1 that cities are more dependent on outside water resources, and WVL r The larger the value is, the greater the degree of dependence on external water resources is; urban water "siphoning" WVL r <1, the city depends on the water resource inside the city; urban 'siphon' WPL for water productivity r >1 that urban economy growth is more dependent on urban external water resources, and WPL r The larger the value is, the greater the dependence degree of urban economic growth on urban external water resources is; urban 'siphon' WPL for water productivity r <1, the urban economy growth depends more on the urban internal water resources.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the following beneficial effects: the method quantifies and evaluates the dependence degree of urban development on external water resources by calculating the water quantity 'siphon' and the water productivity 'siphon' of the city, and enables the evaluation result to reflect the 'siphon' action of the urban economic department on the external water resources by applying the input-output method. The method has simple data acquisition, can determine the dependence degree of urban development and economic growth on water resources through calculation, guides the city to identify external water resource risks, brings external water resource management into an urban water resource management system framework, and has strong popularization and application values.
Detailed Description
The invention is further described with reference to specific examples. The following examples are only for illustrating the technical solutions of the present invention more clearly, and the protection scope of the present invention is not limited thereby.
A method for evaluating city dependence on external water resources, comprising: acquiring water consumption of each economic department of a city, and determining an external water footprint, a virtual total water outlet quantity and a virtual total water inlet quantity of each economic department of the city based on an input-output model; acquiring urban domestic water consumption, and determining urban water quantity siphon according to external water footprints of each economic department of the city; acquiring the total product export and import of a city, and determining the export value strength and import value strength of the city according to the virtual total water export and import of each economic department of the city; determining the 'siphon' of the water productivity of the city according to the outlet value intensity and the inlet value intensity of the city; according to the 'siphon' of the water quantity and the 'siphon' of the water productivity of the city, the dependence degree of the city on external water resources is evaluated.
The water consumption of each economic department in the city comprises the production water consumption and the living water consumption of each economic department. The water footprint is defined as the total amount of water resources required for all products and services consumed over a period of time in a country or region. The external water footprint is defined as the amount of external water resources required for imported products and services consumed within the geographic boundary. Virtual water is defined as the water required to produce goods or provide services that, once entered into the trade chain, produce a "virtual water trade" or "virtual water flow". The greater the municipal water production "siphoning", i.e., the greater the dependence of the urban economic growth on external water resources.
(1) The input-output model adopted in this embodiment is:
x r ＝(I-A rr ) -1 (y rr +∑ s≠r e rs ) (1)
in the formula, A rr ＝Z rr ·(x r ) -1 Is a technical coefficient matrix of the city r, representing the total output x of the city r per unit r Intermediate input value Z of each corresponding department rr A matrix; y is rr Is the city r local ultimate consumption; e.g. of the type rs Is the export volume that city r produces to meet the ultimate consumption needs of region s; i is the identity matrix.
(2) Calculating the external water footprints of each economic department of the city:
ewf r ＝∑ s≠r d s (I-A ss ) -1 e sr (2)
in the formula, ewf r Is the external water footprint of each economic department of city r; d is a radical of s Is the direct water consumption intensity of each economic department of the city s; a. the ss Is a technical coefficient matrix of the city s, which represents the total output x of the city s per unit s Corresponding intermediate investment value Z of each economic department ss A matrix; e.g. of a cylinder sr Representing the amount of export that city s produces to meet the ultimate consumption needs of city r.
(3) Calculating the water quantity 'siphon' of the city:
Figure BDA0002522132120000051
in the formula, WVL r Is the siphon of water quantity of city r; PWC r Is the water consumption of city r.
(4) Calculating the virtual total water outlet quantity of each economic department of the city:
vwe r ＝d r (I-A rr ) -1 ∑ s≠r e rs (4)
in the formula, vwe r Is the virtual total water outlet quantity of each economic department of the city r; d r Is a direct water consumption intensity vector of each economic department of the city r; sigma s≠r e rs Is the sum of the product outlets of city r to city s.
(5) Calculating the total virtual water import quantity of each economic department of the city:
vwi r ＝ewf r (5)
in the formula, vwi r Is the virtual total water import quantity of each economic department of the city r.
(6) Calculating the export value intensity of the city:
vie r ＝∑ s≠r e rs /vwe r (6)
in the formula, vie r Is the export value intensity of the city r.
(7) Calculating the import value intensity of the city:
vii r ＝∑ s≠r e sr /vwi r (7)
in the formula vii r Is the import value intensity of city r; sigma s≠r e sr Is the sum of the product imports of city r to city s.
(8) Calculate urban water productivity "siphoning":
Figure BDA0002522132120000061
in the formula, WPL r Is the water producing ability 'siphon' of city r.
(9) Evaluating the vulnerability of urban water resources
Aiming at the water quantity 'siphon' and the water productivity 'siphon' calculated by the steps, the method for evaluating the dependence degree of the city on external water resources comprises the following steps:
urban water "siphoning" WVL r >1 that cities are more dependent on outside water resources, and WVL r The larger the value is, the greater the degree of dependence on external water resources is;
urban water "siphoning" WVL r <1, the city depends on the water resource inside the city;
urban 'siphon' WPL for water productivity r >1 that urban economy growth is more dependent on urban external water resources, and WPL r The larger the value is, the greater the dependence degree of urban economic growth on urban external water resources is;
urban 'siphon' WPL (Water producing volume) r <1, urban economic growth relies more on urban internal water resources.
The water consumption data of each of four super large city departments of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing in 2010 are obtained based on the Chinese water resource bulletin (Ministry of Water conservancy and Ministry of the people's republic of China, 2010, Chinese water resource bulletin, China Water and hydropower Press, Beijing) and the scarce water conservation of China viewed from the virtual water flow between the areas (Zhao, X., Li, Y.P., Yang, H., Liu, W.F., Tillotson, M.R., Guan, D.J., Yi, Y., Wang, H.,2018.Measuring and serving water saving from international water flow in China, environ Res Lett 13,054012.). The inter-city input-output table in 2010 is obtained based on 30 inter-provincial input-output tables in China (Liu, W.T., Z.; Chen, J.; Yang, B.,2014.China 30-progress inter-regional input-output table of 2010.China statics Press, Beijing.). Calculating external water footprints of each economic department of the city, and acquiring the external water footprints of each economic department of the four super-large cities of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing; calculations were performed based on the foregoing method, and the calculation results are shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 Water volume "siphon" and Water productivity "siphon" of four supermarkets "
Figure BDA0002522132120000071
Obtaining water quantity 'siphon' and water productivity 'siphon' of four super cities of Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai and Chongqing, and analyzing the dependence degree of the four cities on external water resources to obtain the following conditions:
(1) city water amount 'siphon' WVL r >1 that cities are more dependent on outside water resources, and WVL r The larger the value, i.e. the greater the degree of dependence on external water resources, such as shanghai, tianjin, and beijing, indicates that the external water footprint consumed by the three super cities to meet the final consumption demand is larger than the local water consumption, i.e. the super city depends more on the external water resources.
(2) Urban water "siphoning" WVL r <1, the city depends on the water resource in the city more, for example, Chongqing, which shows that the Chongqing city depends on the local water resource more.
(3) The larger the urban water productivity "siphon" is, the greater the degree of dependence of urban economic growth on external water resources, for example, the Shanghai water productivity "siphon" is the largest among four cities, which means that the Shanghai economic growth is more dependent on the external water resources of the city.
According to the embodiment, the dependence degree of urban development on external water resources is quantified and evaluated by calculating the water quantity 'siphon' and the water productivity 'siphon' of the city, and the evaluation result can reflect the 'siphon' effect of urban economic departments on the external water resources by applying an input-output method. The method has simple data acquisition, can determine the dependence degree of urban development and economic growth on water resources through calculation, guides the city to identify external water resource risks, brings external water resource management into an urban water resource management system framework, and has strong popularization and application values.
The above description is only a preferred embodiment of the present invention, and it should be noted that, for those skilled in the art, several modifications and variations can be made without departing from the technical principle of the present invention, and these modifications and variations should also be regarded as the protection scope of the present invention.

Claims (5)

1. A method for evaluating the dependence degree of a city on external water resources is characterized by comprising the following steps:
determining external water footprints, virtual total water outlet quantity and virtual total water inlet quantity of each economic department of a city based on an input-output model according to water consumption of each economic department of the city;
acquiring urban domestic water consumption, and determining urban water quantity siphon according to external water footprints of each economic department of the city;
acquiring the total product export and import of a city, and determining the export value strength and import value strength of the city according to the virtual total water export and import of each economic department of the city;
determining the 'siphon' of the water productivity of the city according to the outlet value intensity and the inlet value intensity of the city;
according to the 'siphon' of the water quantity and the 'siphon' of the water productivity of the city, the dependence degree of the city on external water resources is evaluated;
the virtual total water outlet quantity of each economic department of the city is obtained by adopting a formula (4):
vwe r ＝d r (I-A rr ) -1 ∑ s≠r e rs (4)
in the formula, vwe r Is the virtual total water outlet quantity of each economic department of city r; d is a radical of r Is the direct consumption of each economic department of the city rA water intensity vector; sigma s≠r e rs Is the sum of the product outlets of city r to city s;
the total virtual water inlet amount of each economic department of the city is obtained by adopting a formula (5):
vwi r ＝ewf r (5)
in the formula, vwi r Is the total import quantity of virtual water of each economic department of the city r;
the exit value intensity of the city is obtained by adopting a formula (6):
vie r ＝∑ s≠r e rs /vwe r (6)
in the formula, vie r Is the exit value intensity of city r;
the import value intensity of the city is obtained by adopting a formula (7):
vii r ＝∑ s≠r e sr /vwi r (7)
in the formula vii r Is the import value intensity of city r; sigma s≠r e sr Is the sum of the product imports of city r to city s;
the urban water productivity siphon is obtained by adopting a formula (8):
Figure FDA0003729735630000021
in the formula, WPL r Is the water producing ability 'siphon' of city r.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the input-output model is:
x r ＝(I-A rr ) -1 (y rr +∑ s≠r e rs ) (1)
in the formula, A rr ＝Z rr ·(x r ) -1 Is the technical coefficient of the city rMatrix representing total output x per unit of city r r Intermediate investment value Z of corresponding departments rr A matrix; y is rr Is the city r local ultimate consumption; e.g. of the type rs Is the export volume that city r produces to meet the ultimate consumption needs of region s; i is the identity matrix.
3. The method of claim 1, wherein the external water footprint of each economic sector of the city is obtained by formula (2):
ewf r ＝∑ s≠r d s (I-A ss ) -1 e sr (2)
in the formula, ewf r Is the external water footprint of each economic sector of city r; d is a radical of s Is the direct water consumption intensity of each economic department of the city s; a. the ss Is a technical coefficient matrix of the city s, which represents the total output x of the city s per unit s Corresponding intermediate investment value Z of each economic department ss A matrix; e.g. of the type sr Representing the amount of export that city s produces to meet the ultimate consumption needs of city r.
4. The method for evaluating the dependence degree of a city on external water resources as claimed in claim 1, wherein the water amount "siphon" of the city is obtained by the formula (3):
Figure FDA0003729735630000022
in the formula, WVL r Is the water quantity 'siphon' of city r; PWC r Is the water consumption of city r.
5. The method of claim 1, wherein the city's water volume is "siphoned" WVL r >1 that cities are more dependent on outside water resources, and WVL r The larger the value is, the greater the degree of dependence on external water resources is;
urban water "siphoning" WVL r <1, the city depends on the water resource inside the city;
urban 'siphon' WPL (Water producing volume) r >1, i.e. urban economy growth is more dependent on urban external water resources, and WPL r The larger the value is, the greater the dependence degree of urban economic growth on urban external water resources is;
urban 'siphon' WPL for water productivity r <1, the urban economy growth depends more on the urban internal water resources.
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Citations (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN106815777A (en) * 2016-12-30 2017-06-09 南方科技大学 A kind of method and device for evaluating entity water and Virtual water conversion
CN111126792A (en) * 2019-12-05 2020-05-08 河海大学 Regional entity-virtual water resource network vulnerability evaluation method

Patent Citations (2)

* Cited by examiner, † Cited by third party
Publication number Priority date Publication date Assignee Title
CN106815777A (en) * 2016-12-30 2017-06-09 南方科技大学 A kind of method and device for evaluating entity water and Virtual water conversion
CN111126792A (en) * 2019-12-05 2020-05-08 河海大学 Regional entity-virtual water resource network vulnerability evaluation method

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