CN111612602A - Suspected financial risk distinguishing method and device for listed company - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a suspected financial risk distinguishing method for a listed company, which comprises the following steps: acquiring a financial statement of a listed company, and extracting financial data in the financial statement; according to the financial data, constructing financial variables at least under the dimensions of a risk warning dimension, a profit capacity dimension, a liquidity risk dimension, an operation risk dimension, a repayment capacity dimension and a proprietary index of a scientific and invasive board; judging whether each financial variable respectively accords with each given rule, and recording the financial variables which do not accord with the corresponding given rules; and judging whether the listed company has suspected financial risk or not according to the financial variable which does not conform to the corresponding given rule. The invention also provides a suspected financial risk judging device for the listed company. The method and the system help enterprises to prevent and control financial risks and protect the benefits of the enterprises and investors by acquiring and analyzing various financial variables and judging suspected financial risks.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of data processing. More specifically, the invention relates to a method and a device for distinguishing suspected financial risks of listed companies.
Background
In the daily operation of an enterprise, the production operation of the enterprise may suffer a great impact due to various influences such as imperfect internal control, rapid change of external economic environment, and the like. This may not only damage the business itself, but may also damage the stakeholders of the listed companies, and in addition, credit agencies such as banks may suffer bad account losses due to untimely identification of the financial risk of the business. Under current auditing regimes, auditors are responsible for compliance and accuracy of financial statements within their scope, but they do not assume the obligation and responsibility for identifying financial risks. Therefore, it is desirable to design a solution to solve the above problems.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method and a device for judging suspected financial risks of listed companies, which help enterprises to prevent and control financial risks and protect the interests of the enterprises and investors by acquiring and analyzing various financial variables to judge the suspected financial risks.
To achieve these objects and other advantages in accordance with the purpose of the invention, there is provided a method for determining suspected financial risk of a listed company, comprising:
acquiring a financial statement of a listed company, and extracting financial data in the financial statement;
according to the financial data, constructing financial variables at least under the dimensions of a risk warning dimension, a profit capacity dimension, a liquidity risk dimension, an operation risk dimension, a repayment capacity dimension and a proprietary index of a scientific and invasive board;
judging whether each financial variable respectively accords with each given rule, and recording the financial variables which do not accord with the corresponding given rules;
and judging whether the listed company has suspected financial risk or not according to the financial variable which does not conform to the corresponding given rule.
Preferably, in the method for determining suspected financial risk of a listed company, the given rule at least includes:
whether the financial variable is negative within a set time period;
whether the financial variable exceeds a threshold level for a listed company of the same industry, the same maturity, the same block;
whether the financial variable exceeds a fixed threshold.
Preferably, the method for determining suspected financial risk of a listed company further includes:
the listed companies are classified according to at least industry type, plate type and maturity, and threshold levels of financial variables of the listed companies of the same industry, the same maturity and the same plate are calculated.
Preferably, the method for determining a suspected financial risk of a listed company includes:
whether the stock of the listed company is the constituent stock of a specific index or not, if so, the listed company is considered to be a mature enterprise at the present stage; whether the company on the market has been on the market for more than ten years or not is judged, and if yes, the company on the market is considered to be a mature enterprise; and if the average business income growth rate of the listed company in the last three years is less than the preset growth rate, the listed company is considered to be a mature enterprise.
Preferably, in the suspected financial risk judging method for the listed company, the financial variables of the refunding risk warning dimension comprise net profits of the listed company in each year, end-of-term net assets, total business income, audit opinions, witness penalty information, company card stopping time and whether to disclose financial information on time; financial variables for profitability dimension include gross profit margin, ROE, net profit, revenue growth rate; the financial variables of the liquidity risk dimension include cash inflow produced by the business activity, cash flow net amount produced by the business activity, cash revenue ratio, net profit to cash flow net amount produced by the business activity; the financial variables of the operation risk dimension comprise a flow ratio, a quick-action ratio and interest guarantee multiples; the proprietary indexes of the scientific plate include net profit, research and development cost, total business income and cash flow net amount generated by business activities.
Preferably, the suspected financial risk determination method for the listed company scores the suspected financial risk of the listed company according to the financial variable which does not meet the corresponding given rule, and determines that the suspected financial risk exists in the listed company if the score of the listed company exceeds a given threshold.
Preferably, in the method for determining the suspected financial risk of the listed company, if the financial variable of the refunding risk warning dimension does not meet the corresponding given rule, the listed company is directly determined to have the suspected financial risk.
Preferably, the method for determining suspected financial risk of a listed company further includes:
acquiring a financial data sample, constructing financial variables of a market-returning risk warning dimension, a profit capacity dimension, a flowability risk dimension, an operation risk dimension, a repayment capacity dimension and a scientific plate exclusive index dimension of the financial data sample, assigning values to the financial variables, dividing the financial variables into a first type of financial variables and a second type of financial variables, further obtaining a first type of financial variable score and a second type of financial variable score, training to obtain a neural network prediction model by taking the first type of financial variable score as input and the second type of financial variable score as output;
if the financial variables of the refunding risk warning dimensionality accord with corresponding given rules, inputting the scores of the first type of financial variables corresponding to the company on the market into a neural network prediction model, comparing the obtained prediction result with the scores of the second type of financial variables to obtain a comparison error, if the comparison error is smaller than an error threshold, adding the scores of the first type of financial variables and the scores of the second type of financial variables, comparing the scores with a given threshold, and if the comparison error is larger than the error threshold, judging that the company on the market has suspected financial risk;
the first type of financial variables are financial variables of a profitability dimension, a liquidity risk dimension and an operation risk dimension, and the second type of financial variables are financial variables except the first type of financial variables.
The invention also provides a suspected financial risk judging device for a listed company, which comprises the following components:
a processor;
a memory storing executable instructions;
wherein the processor is configured to execute the executable instructions to perform the suspected financial risk determination method for the listed company.
The invention at least comprises the following beneficial effects:
the method collects financial data of listed companies, further constructs financial variables, identifies suspected financial risks by judging whether the financial variables meet given rules, reminds the listed companies to prevent and control, ensures that economic benefits of enterprises are not lost, and effectively protects investors. The method has less dependence on manpower, can quickly provide the identification result, has lower cost and is suitable for identifying the financial risks of a large number of listed companies.
Additional advantages, objects, and features of the invention will be set forth in part in the description which follows and in part will become apparent to those having ordinary skill in the art upon examination of the following or may be learned from practice of the invention.
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FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the present invention.
Detailed Description
The present invention is further described in detail below with reference to the attached drawings so that those skilled in the art can implement the invention by referring to the description text.
It will be understood that terms such as "having," "including," and "comprising," as used herein, do not preclude the presence or addition of one or more other elements or groups thereof.
In one embodiment, as shown in fig. 1, a method for determining suspected financial risk of a listed company includes:
the suspected financial risk distinguishing method for the listed company comprises the following steps:
acquiring a financial statement of a listed company, and extracting financial data in the financial statement;
according to the financial data, constructing financial variables at least under the dimensions of a risk warning dimension, a profit capacity dimension, a liquidity risk dimension, an operation risk dimension, a repayment capacity dimension and a proprietary index of a scientific and invasive board;
judging whether each financial variable respectively accords with each given rule, and recording the financial variables which do not accord with the corresponding given rules;
and judging whether the listed company has suspected financial risk or not according to the financial variable which does not conform to the corresponding given rule.
In the above technical solution, preferably, the obtained financial statement is derived from a wind financial database, and includes a balance sheet, a profit sheet and a cash flow sheet of each period (quarter) since the listed company is listed, and the financial statement format is an excel format. The main financial data obtained from the financial statements of the listed companies are: net profits, end-of-term owner equity totals, business revenues, audit opinions, business costs, business cash inflows, business cash net inflows, term fees (including financial, sales, and administrative fees), inventory, accounts receivable, liquidity totals, reputation, business revenue, research and development fees, and the like. The time period during which the financial data is acquired is preferably the current and last three years of raw financial data. From the perspective of the market withdrawal risk warning dimension, variables such as net profits, end-of-term net assets, total business income, audit opinions, syndrome punishment penalty information, company card stopping time, whether financial information is disclosed on time and the like of a listed company are constructed; from the view of profitability dimension, constructing variables such as gross profit rate, ROE, net profit, business income growth rate and the like; from the aspect of liquidity risk dimension, constructing variables such as cash inflow generated by the operation activity, cash flow net amount generated by the operation activity, cash income ratio, net profit ratio and cash flow net amount generated by the operation activity; from the aspect of operation risk dimension, constructing variables such as flow rate, quick-action rate, interest guarantee multiple and the like, and from the aspect of other indexes, constructing variables such as reputation, business income and the like; from the special indexes of the scientific plate, the variables such as net profit, research and development cost, total business income, cash flow net amount generated by business activities and the like are constructed. All the variables are time series variables, and if no data exists in a certain period, the current period value is set as a null value and is not considered. A given rule is preferably whether a financial variable points to a financial risk. Whether the listed companies have suspected financial risks or not is judged according to whether the financial variables meet given rules or not, and the listed companies can be judged through the financial variables by establishing a mathematical model or in an expert scoring mode. It can be seen that the technical scheme collects financial data of the companies on the market, further constructs financial variables, identifies suspected financial risks by judging whether each financial variable meets given rules, reminds the companies on the market to prevent and control, ensures that economic benefits of enterprises are not lost, and effectively protects investors.
In another technical solution, in the method for determining suspected financial risk of a listed company, the given rule at least includes:
whether the financial variable is negative within a set time period;
whether the financial variable exceeds a threshold level for a listed company of the same industry, the same maturity, the same block;
whether the financial variable exceeds a fixed threshold.
In the above technical solution, several preferred given rules are given. Judging whether one or more variables are continuously negative in the time dimension, and the method is suitable for financial variables such as net profits, business income growth rates and the like; judging whether one or more variables exceed a threshold value on the section dimension, namely comparing the financial variable of a target listed company with the upper (or lower) pentadecane of the same company in the same industry, the same maturity and the same block, and judging whether the financial variable exceeds the threshold level of the same industry, wherein the financial variable is suitable for the financial variables such as flow rate, quick-action rate and the like; whether one or more variables exceed a fixed threshold in the current period is judged, and the method is suitable for financial variables such as cash income ratio, net profit ratio and cash net flow generated by business activities.
In another technical solution, the method for determining suspected financial risk of a listed company further includes:
the listed companies are classified according to at least industry type, plate type and maturity, and threshold levels of financial variables of the listed companies of the same industry, the same maturity and the same plate are calculated. The technical scheme provides a mode for calculating the threshold level, namely after the listed companies are classified, the listed companies in the same industry, the same maturity and the same plate are sorted, and the value with the proportion of 15 percent at the top or 15 percent at the bottom is used as the threshold level.
In another technical solution, the method for determining suspected financial risk of a listed company includes:
whether the stock of the listed company is the constituent stock of a specific index or not, if so, the listed company is considered to be a mature enterprise at the present stage; whether the company on the market has been on the market for more than ten years or not is judged, and if yes, the company on the market is considered to be a mature enterprise; and if the average business income growth rate of the listed company in the last three years is less than the preset growth rate, the listed company is considered to be a mature enterprise. The technical scheme provides a mode for judging whether the listed company is mature, and if the listed company does not meet one of the conditions, the listed company is judged to be an immature company.
In another technical scheme, in the suspected financial risk judging method for the listed company, the financial variables of the market-returning risk warning dimension comprise net profits of the listed company in each year, end-of-term net assets, total business income, audit opinions, witness punishment information, company card-off time and whether to disclose financial information on time; financial variables for profitability dimension include gross profit margin, ROE, net profit, revenue growth rate; the financial variables of the liquidity risk dimension include cash inflow produced by the business activity, cash flow net amount produced by the business activity, cash revenue ratio, net profit to cash flow net amount produced by the business activity; the financial variables of the operation risk dimension comprise a flow ratio, a quick-action ratio and interest guarantee multiples; the proprietary indexes of the scientific plate include net profit, research and development cost, total business income and cash flow net amount generated by business activities. The present solution provides a preferred financial variable category.
In another technical solution, the suspected financial risk determination method for a listed company scores the suspected financial risk of the listed company according to the financial variable that does not meet the corresponding given rule, and determines that the listed company has the suspected financial risk if the score of the listed company exceeds a given threshold. For example, the total design score is 30, and if the rule corresponding to the risk of market withdrawal warning is early-warning, the score is directly set to be 30. Otherwise: if more than half of the rest rules are early-warned, mapping the score to the interval of [25,30 ]; if one fourth of the rest rules are early-warning but less than half of the rest rules, mapping the score to the interval of [15,25 ]; and if the early warning number in the rest rules does not exceed one fourth, mapping the score to the interval of [0,15] score. Thereby forming the scoring situation of suspected financial risks of each stage of the listed company. For example, the threshold is 25, which can be determined empirically or statistically.
In another technical scheme, in the suspected financial risk judging method for the listed company, if the financial variable of the refunding risk warning dimension does not accord with the corresponding given rule, the suspected financial risk of the listed company is directly judged. In the technical scheme, once the financial variable of the market-returning risk warning dimension does not accord with a given rule, the risk degree is higher, and the suspected financial risk is determined to exist immediately.
In another technical solution, the method for determining suspected financial risk of a listed company further includes:
acquiring a financial data sample, constructing financial variables of a market-returning risk warning dimension, a profit capacity dimension, a flowability risk dimension, an operation risk dimension, a repayment capacity dimension and a scientific plate exclusive index dimension of the financial data sample, assigning values to the financial variables, dividing the financial variables into a first type of financial variables and a second type of financial variables, further obtaining a first type of financial variable score and a second type of financial variable score, training to obtain a neural network prediction model by taking the first type of financial variable score as input and the second type of financial variable score as output;
if the financial variables of the refunding risk warning dimensionality accord with corresponding given rules, inputting the scores of the first type of financial variables corresponding to the company on the market into a neural network prediction model, comparing the obtained prediction result with the scores of the second type of financial variables to obtain a comparison error, if the comparison error is smaller than an error threshold, adding the scores of the first type of financial variables and the scores of the second type of financial variables, comparing the scores with a given threshold, and if the comparison error is larger than the error threshold, judging that the company on the market has suspected financial risk;
the first type of financial variables are financial variables of a profitability dimension, a liquidity risk dimension and an operation risk dimension, and the second type of financial variables are financial variables except the first type of financial variables.
In the technical scheme, the first type of financial variable and the second type of financial variable are assigned according to values or degrees, for example, the values are assigned within 0-100, the specific assignment rule is determined in advance, and an empirical rule or a rule determined according to statistical data can be adopted. Firstly, collecting financial data samples, inputting the scores of the first financial variables into a neural network model, outputting the scores of the second financial variables, and further training to obtain a neural network prediction model. When the financial variables of the market-returning risk warning dimensionality accord with corresponding given rules, the financial variables need to be comprehensively considered, and whether the financial variables are real needs to be verified. When the target listed company is identified, the score of the first type of financial variable is input into the neural network prediction model, the output result is compared with the actual score of the second type of financial variable, if the error is larger than the error threshold value, the suspected financial risk of the listed company is judged, if the error is smaller than the error threshold value, the score of the listed company is directly calculated, and the suspected financial risk is judged according to the calculated score. The first type of financial variable relates to the fund aspect of a listed company, is greatly related to the second type of financial variable, and can better avoid misjudgment through the pre-verification of a neural network prediction model.
The invention also provides a suspected financial risk judging device of the listed company based on the suspected financial risk judging method of the listed company, which comprises the following steps:
a processor;
a memory storing executable instructions;
wherein the processor is configured to execute the executable instructions to perform the suspected financial risk determination method for the listed company.
The technical scheme is obtained based on the same inventive concept as the suspected financial risk judgment method of the listed company, and reference can be made to the description of the method part. The device of the technical scheme is not limited to the pc, the terminal and the server. The device can be arranged in a server, and the financial data is collected at intervals of set time and automatically calculated to give out a judgment result.
The number of apparatuses and the scale of the process described herein are intended to simplify the description of the present invention. Applications, modifications and variations of the method and apparatus for determining suspected financial risk of a listed company of the present invention will be apparent to those skilled in the art.
While embodiments of the invention have been described above, it is not limited to the applications set forth in the description and the embodiments, which are fully applicable in various fields of endeavor to which the invention pertains, and further modifications may readily be made by those skilled in the art, it being understood that the invention is not limited to the details shown and described herein without departing from the general concept defined by the appended claims and their equivalents.
Claims (9)
1. The suspected financial risk distinguishing method for the listed company is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring a financial statement of a listed company, and extracting financial data in the financial statement;
according to the financial data, constructing financial variables at least under the dimensions of a risk warning dimension, a profit capacity dimension, a liquidity risk dimension, an operation risk dimension, a repayment capacity dimension and a proprietary index of a scientific and invasive board;
judging whether each financial variable respectively accords with each given rule, and recording the financial variables which do not accord with the corresponding given rules;
and judging whether the listed company has suspected financial risk or not according to the financial variable which does not conform to the corresponding given rule.
2. The method of claim 1, wherein the given rules include at least:
whether the financial variable is negative within a set time period;
whether the financial variable exceeds a threshold level for a listed company of the same industry, the same maturity, the same block;
whether the financial variable exceeds a fixed threshold.
3. The method of determining suspected financial risk of a listed company as claimed in claim 1 further comprising:
the listed companies are classified according to at least industry type, plate type and maturity, and threshold levels of financial variables of the listed companies of the same industry, the same maturity and the same plate are calculated.
4. The suspected financial risk determination method of a listed company as claimed in claim 3 wherein the method of determining the maturity of a listed company comprises:
whether the stock of the listed company is the constituent stock of a specific index or not, if so, the listed company is considered to be a mature enterprise at the present stage; whether the company on the market has been on the market for more than ten years or not is judged, and if yes, the company on the market is considered to be a mature enterprise; and if the average business income growth rate of the listed company in the last three years is less than the preset growth rate, the listed company is considered to be a mature enterprise.
5. The suspected financial risk determination method of a listed company as claimed in claim 2 wherein the financial variables of the risk of coming back alert dimension include annual net profit, end-of-term net property, total revenue of business, audit opinions, witness penalty information, company card off-time and whether to disclose financial information on time; financial variables for profitability dimension include gross profit margin, ROE, net profit, revenue growth rate; the financial variables of the liquidity risk dimension include cash inflow produced by the business activity, cash flow net amount produced by the business activity, cash revenue ratio, net profit to cash flow net amount produced by the business activity; the financial variables of the operation risk dimension comprise a flow ratio, a quick-action ratio and interest guarantee multiples; the proprietary indexes of the scientific plate include net profit, research and development cost, total business income and cash flow net amount generated by business activities.
6. The method as claimed in claim 5, wherein the suspected financial risk of the listed company is scored according to the financial variable not meeting the corresponding rule, and if the score of the listed company exceeds a given threshold, the listed company is determined to have the suspected financial risk.
7. The suspected financial risk assessment method of a listed company as claimed in claim 6, wherein if the financial variable of the risk-of-coming-back alert dimension does not comply with the corresponding given rule, the suspected financial risk of the listed company is directly assessed.
8. The method of determining suspected financial risk of a listed company as claimed in claim 6 further comprising:
acquiring a financial data sample, constructing financial variables of a market-returning risk warning dimension, a profit capacity dimension, a flowability risk dimension, an operation risk dimension, a repayment capacity dimension and a scientific plate exclusive index dimension of the financial data sample, assigning values to the financial variables, dividing the financial variables into a first type of financial variables and a second type of financial variables, further obtaining a first type of financial variable score and a second type of financial variable score, training to obtain a neural network prediction model by taking the first type of financial variable score as input and the second type of financial variable score as output;
if the financial variables of the refunding risk warning dimensionality accord with corresponding given rules, inputting the scores of the first type of financial variables corresponding to the company on the market into a neural network prediction model, comparing the obtained prediction result with the scores of the second type of financial variables to obtain a comparison error, if the comparison error is smaller than an error threshold, adding the scores of the first type of financial variables and the scores of the second type of financial variables, comparing the scores with a given threshold, and if the comparison error is larger than the error threshold, judging that the company on the market has suspected financial risk;
the first type of financial variables are financial variables of a profitability dimension, a liquidity risk dimension and an operation risk dimension, and the second type of financial variables are financial variables except the first type of financial variables.
9. The suspected financial risk discriminating device of company on market, characterized by comprising:
a processor;
a memory storing executable instructions;
wherein the processor is configured to execute the executable instructions to perform the method for determining suspected financial risk of a listed company as claimed in any one of claims 1 to 8.
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| Publication number | Priority date | Publication date | Assignee | Title |
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| CN112016851A (en) * | 2020-09-14 | 2020-12-01 | 支付宝(杭州)信息技术有限公司 | Management method and device for information disclosure |
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| CN112016851A (en) * | 2020-09-14 | 2020-12-01 | 支付宝(杭州)信息技术有限公司 | Management method and device for information disclosure |
| CN112016851B (en) * | 2020-09-14 | 2022-11-08 | 支付宝(杭州)信息技术有限公司 | Management method and device for information disclosure |
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