CN111521878A - Method for judging regional lightning stroke risk degree - Google Patents
Method for judging regional lightning stroke risk degree Download PDFInfo
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- CN111521878A CN111521878A CN202010466985.2A CN202010466985A CN111521878A CN 111521878 A CN111521878 A CN 111521878A CN 202010466985 A CN202010466985 A CN 202010466985A CN 111521878 A CN111521878 A CN 111521878A
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- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01R—MEASURING ELECTRIC VARIABLES; MEASURING MAGNETIC VARIABLES
- G01R29/00—Arrangements for measuring or indicating electric quantities not covered by groups G01R19/00 - G01R27/00
- G01R29/08—Measuring electromagnetic field characteristics
- G01R29/0807—Measuring electromagnetic field characteristics characterised by the application
- G01R29/0814—Field measurements related to measuring influence on or from apparatus, components or humans, e.g. in ESD, EMI, EMC, EMP testing, measuring radiation leakage; detecting presence of micro- or radiowave emitters; dosimetry; testing shielding; measurements related to lightning
- G01R29/0842—Measurements related to lightning, e.g. measuring electric disturbances, warning systems
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- G—PHYSICS
- G01—MEASURING; TESTING
- G01R—MEASURING ELECTRIC VARIABLES; MEASURING MAGNETIC VARIABLES
- G01R29/00—Arrangements for measuring or indicating electric quantities not covered by groups G01R19/00 - G01R27/00
- G01R29/08—Measuring electromagnetic field characteristics
- G01R29/0864—Measuring electromagnetic field characteristics characterised by constructional or functional features
- G01R29/0892—Details related to signal analysis or treatment; presenting results, e.g. displays; measuring specific signal features other than field strength, e.g. polarisation, field modes, phase, envelope, maximum value
Abstract
The invention provides a method for judging regional lightning stroke risk degree, and belongs to the technical field of lightning protection. The lightning protection method comprises the steps of acquiring a simulated moving path of the thunderstorm cloud in advance by utilizing a lightning electric field performance which is far away from a region to be tested, observing the simulated moving path of the thunderstorm cloud, predicting the probability that the thunderstorm cloud enters or approaches the region to be tested, predicting the risk of lightning strike of the region to be tested in advance, and guiding actual lightning protection work, so that a reliable basis is provided for lightning protection practice.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of lightning protection, and particularly relates to a method for judging regional lightning stroke risk.
Background
Thunder is an instantaneous high-voltage, large-current and strong electromagnetic radiation disastrous weather phenomenon which occurs in the atmosphere, is one of serious natural disasters, has the characteristics of high occurrence frequency, strong burstiness, serious harm, wide range and great social influence, and forms great threat to social public safety and people life and property safety. The lightning protection and disaster reduction work is well done, and the lightning protection and disaster reduction work is not only an indispensable important link for safety production, but also an indispensable important aspect for paying attention to the residences.
The establishment of the lightning monitoring and early warning system can improve the accuracy and timeliness of lightning early warning, reduce casualties and property loss caused by lightning, and play an important role in developing lightning protection and disaster reduction work and ensuring social safety production. At present, the widely used lightning early warning and monitoring system mainly comprises lightning positioning, atmospheric electric field monitoring, satellite lightning monitoring, meteorological radar thunderstorm monitoring and the like.
The lightning monitoring and early warning system based on the atmospheric electric field instrument has the advantages of convenience in construction and use, low operation cost and the like, and is widely applied to short-time lightning early warning practice within the range of several kilometers. However, the early warning accuracy of the atmospheric electric field instrument is reduced along with the prolongation of the early warning time requirement, and when the required early warning time is more than 2 hours, the early warning accuracy is even less than 20%. Meanwhile, although the atmospheric electric field instrument is arranged at multiple points, the moving path of the thunderstorm cloud can be obtained preliminarily, when the moving path of the thunderstorm cloud changes, judgment cannot be made accurately, namely, the lightning monitoring and early warning system based on the atmospheric electric field instrument can only perform preliminary early warning in a short time of lightning, the accurate basis of lightning stroke danger in a certain area cannot be judged in advance, and social resources are wasted in lightning protection practice.
Disclosure of Invention
In view of the above, the present invention provides a method for determining a lightning stroke risk degree of a certain area, so as to solve the technical problem that social resources are wasted because the lightning stroke risk degree of a certain specific area cannot be accurately determined in the prior art.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention for solving the technical problems is as follows:
a method for judging regional lightning stroke risk degree comprises the following steps:
a. acquiring the electric field intensity near a region to be detected;
b. comparing whether the electric field intensity near the area to be detected is larger than an early warning threshold value;
c. if yes, marking as the highest risk level; if not, acquiring the electric field intensity of the remote area to be detected;
d. comparing whether the electric field intensity of the far part of the area to be detected is larger than an early warning threshold value;
e. if not, marking as the lowest risk level; if yes, acquiring the position P of the maximum value in the electric field intensity of the remote area to be measured1；
f. After the interval time of △ t, obtaining the division P in the electric field intensity of the far region to be measured1Position P of the out-of-position maximum2；
g. According to position P1And position P2Acquiring a thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L;
h. and judging the lightning stroke risk degree of the area to be detected according to the distance between the thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L and the area to be detected.
Preferably, in step g, after the thunderstorm cloud simulated moving path L is acquired, the thunderstorm cloud simulated moving path is corrected, and the corrected thunderstorm cloud simulated moving path L is acquired'The method for correcting the thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L comprises the following steps: at position P1Constructing a modified thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L for the vertex'And the modified thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L'A correction angle α is formed between the thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L and the thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L at one side close to the area to be detected, and in step h, the thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L is corrected according to the thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L'And correcting the lightning stroke risk degree of the area to be detected according to the distance between the lightning stroke risk degree and the area to be detected.
Preferably, the correction angle α is 3 ° to 10 °.
Preferably, in the step h, the method for determining the lightning risk of the area to be detected according to the distance between the thunderstorm cloud simulated moving path L and the area to be detected includes:
h1establishing a regional risk degree grading target by taking the center of a region to be measured as a circle center, wherein the regional risk degree grading target consists of a plurality of concentric circles, different regional risk degree grades are formed between every two adjacent concentric circles, and the risk degree grades are gradually reduced from inside to outside;
h2acquiring the modified thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L'Simulating a moving path L by the modified thunderstorm cloud at the position on the regional risk classification target'The highest risk rating on a pass-zone risk rating target is the lightning strike risk for the zone at the current time.
Preferably, the regional risk classification target comprises a 0-level risk region, a I-level risk region, a II-level risk region and a III-level risk region from inside to outside.
Preferably, the width of the class i hazard zone is less than the width of the class ii hazard zone.
Preferably, a lightning detection system is firstly established, the lightning detection system comprises a near-end early warning device and a far-end early warning device, and the near-end early warning device comprises a plurality of atmospheric electric field instruments Q distributed around an area to be detected1The far-end early warning device comprises a plurality of atmospheric electric field instruments Q which are uniformly arranged on the circumference taking the area to be measured as the center at intervals2And the atmospheric electric field instrument Q2The distance between the atmospheric electric field meter Q and the periphery of the area to be measured is close to that of the atmospheric electric field meter Q1The maximum monitoring radius of; in the step a, an atmospheric electric field instrument Q is obtained1The detected electric field strength; in step c, obtaining an atmospheric electric field instrument Q2The detected electric field strength.
Preferably, in step d, all the atmospheric E-field instruments Q are traversed2Comparing whether the detected electric field intensity is greater than an early warning threshold value; in the step e, the step (c),if all the atmospheric electric field instruments Q2If at least one of the detected electric field strengths is greater than the early warning threshold value, the atmospheric electric field instrument Q corresponding to the maximum value of the electric field strength is obtained2Position Q of2mWith Q2mAnd Q2mRelative atmospheric electric field instrument Q2As a dividing line, a plurality of atmospheric electric field instruments Q2F, comparing the atmospheric electric field instruments Q at the symmetrical positions on the two sides of the dividing line after the interval time of △ t2And g, acquiring a deflection direction of the thunderstorm cloud, and judging a deflection angle β of the thunderstorm cloud according to the intensity of the electric field, wherein in the step g, a simulated moving path L of the thunderstorm cloud is acquired according to the deflection direction and the deflection angle of the thunderstorm cloud.
Preferably, the far-end early warning device comprises a plurality of 8 atmospheric electric field instruments Q uniformly arranged on the circumference taking the area to be measured as the center at intervals28 atmospheric electric field instrument Q2The detection device is respectively arranged in the true east, the true west, the true south, the true north, the southeast, the northeast, the southwest and the northwest directions of the region to be detected.
According to the technical scheme, the invention provides a method for judging the lightning stroke risk degree of the area, which has the beneficial effects that: the method comprises the steps of obtaining a simulated moving path of the thunderstorm cloud in advance, observing the simulated moving path of the thunderstorm cloud, and predicting the probability that the thunderstorm cloud enters or approaches the area to be detected, so that the risk of lightning stroke of the area to be detected is predicted in advance, actual lightning protection work is guided, and a reliable basis is provided for lightning protection practice.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for determining regional lightning strike risk.
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a lightning detection system and a process for determining the risk of lightning strike in a region.
Detailed Description
The technical scheme and the technical effect of the invention are further elaborated in the following by combining the drawings of the invention.
Referring to fig. 1, a method for determining a lightning risk in a region includes the following steps:
a. acquiring the electric field intensity near a region to be detected;
b. comparing whether the electric field intensity near the area to be detected is larger than an early warning threshold value;
c. if yes, marking as the highest risk level; if not, acquiring the electric field intensity of the remote area to be detected;
d. comparing whether the electric field intensity of the far part of the area to be detected is larger than an early warning threshold value;
e. if not, marking as the lowest risk level; if yes, acquiring the position P of the maximum value in the electric field intensity of the remote area to be measured1；
f. After the interval time of △ t, obtaining the division P in the electric field intensity of the far region to be measured1Position P of the out-of-position maximum2；
g. According to position P1And position P2Acquiring a thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L;
h. and judging the lightning stroke risk degree of the area to be detected according to the distance between the thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L and the area to be detected.
Specifically, if, in actual production practice, the risk degree of lightning strike in the area a needs to be predicted and evaluated, a lightning monitoring and early warning device is firstly established around the area a, for example, a plurality of near-end electric field meters Q are arranged around the area a1Or the thunder and lightning monitoring and early warning device established around the area A is utilized to carry out thunder and lightning early warning by acquiring the electric field intensity around the area A, but the early warning method can only realize short-time early warning, the accuracy of the early warning is obviously reduced along with the extension of the early warning lifting time, and effective guidance on the actual lightning protection work is difficult to form.
In order to early warn possible lightning, the lightning stroke danger degree of the area A needs to be analyzed. In one case, the movement path of the thunderstorm cloud outside the area A can be obtained by obtaining a plurality of established thunder and lightning monitoring and early warning devices far away from the area A according to the response intensity and response time of different thunder and lightning monitoring and early warning devices to the thunderstorm cloud, the movement path of the thunderstorm cloud is predicted, and whether the area A is located on the path of the thunderstorm cloud or not is judged in advance according to the predicted movement path of the thunderstorm cloud, so that early warning is given in advance. However, the lightning monitoring and early warning devices are scattered, the thunderstorm cloud moving path prediction difficulty is high, and the guiding significance to the actual lightning protection work is limited when the thunderstorm cloud moving path prediction is not in time.
Preferably, please refer to fig. 2, in order to obtain the risk of lightning stroke in the area a in advance and accurately, a lightning detection system is first established, the lightning detection system includes a near-end early warning device and a far-end early warning device, the near-end early warning device includes a plurality of atmospheric electric field meters Q distributed around the area to be detected1The far-end early warning device comprises a plurality of atmospheric electric field instruments Q which are uniformly arranged on the circumference taking the area to be measured as the center at intervals2And the atmospheric electric field instrument Q2The distance between the atmospheric electric field meter Q and the periphery of the area to be measured is close to that of the atmospheric electric field meter Q1Is measured. For example, the far-end early warning device comprises a plurality of 8 atmospheric electric field instruments Q which are uniformly arranged on the circumference taking the area to be measured as the center at intervals28 atmospheric electric field instrument Q2The detection device is respectively arranged in the true east, the true west, the true south, the true north, the southeast, the northeast, the southwest and the northwest directions of the region to be detected. For convenience of description, 8 atmospheric electric field meters Q2Are respectively numbered Q21、Q22、Q23、Q24、Q25、Q26、Q27、Q28。
On the premise of establishing a lightning detection system, the risk degree of lightning strike in the area A is predicted, so that the accuracy of prediction is greatly improved, and effective guidance is provided for actual lightning protection practice.
Specifically, the atmospheric electric field meter Q is first acquired1Detected electric field intensity E1The electric field intensity E1And a preset early warning threshold value E0Making a comparison if the electric field strength E1Greater than a pre-warning threshold E0If the lightning protection degree is the highest risk degree, the lightning risk degree of the area A is marked to guide managers to make lightning protection preparation work in time. If the electric field strength E1Less than the early warning threshold E0Then, it means that the thunderstorm cloud is far from the area A, which is the area AThe risk of a temporary lightning strike to the domain is low.
At this time, all the atmospheric electric field instruments Q are obtained2Electric field intensity E of2The electric field intensity E2And a preset early warning threshold value E0Making a comparison if the electric field strength E2Less than the early warning threshold E0If the lightning risk level of the area A is marked as the lowest risk level, the manager can obtain a conclusion that lightning protection preparation work is not needed in advance according to the guidance of the risk level. If the electric field strength E2Greater than a pre-warning threshold E0If the distance between the thunderstorm cloud and the far-end early warning device is short, the thunderstorm cloud needs to attract attention of managers, and whether lightning protection preparation work needs to be carried out in advance is judged. At this time, the maximum electric field intensity E is obtained2maxAnd maximum electric field intensity E2maxCorresponding atmosphere electric field instrument Q2maxAccording to the position of the atmospheric electric field meter Q2maxPosition of (D) and maximum electric field intensity E2maxPreliminarily determining the location P of the thunderstorm cloud1。
For example, an atmospheric electric field instrument Q21Detected electric field intensity E21Greater than a pre-warning threshold E0At this time, the atmospheric electric field meter Q remains22、Q23、Q24、Q25、Q26、Q27、Q28No change in electric field strength is detected, and at this time, it can be preliminarily assumed that the thunderstorm cloud is located in the east-oriented direction of the area A and is far away from the atmospheric electric field meter Q21Far away. And, at the same time, according to the electric field strength E21Preliminarily determining the thunderstorm cloud position P according to the theory that the electric field intensity of point charge is inversely proportional to the square of the distance1。
After a certain interval of △ t, such as 3-30 min, all the atmospheric electric field instruments Q are obtained again2And traversed. At this time, for example, in one case, the atmospheric electric field meter Q21Detected electric field intensity E21Gradually increased and located in the atmosphere electric field instrument Q21Two sides and close to the largeGas electric field instrument Q21Atmospheric electric field instrument Q25And atmosphere electric field instrument Q26And if the moving distance is increased, the moving path of the thunderstorm cloud can be judged to be from east to west. In most cases, the atmospheric electric field instrument Q25And atmosphere electric field instrument Q26One or both of them are increased differently, and then the measurement can be performed according to the atmosphere electric field instrument Q25And atmosphere electric field instrument Q26Determining the thunderstorm cloud position P2And preliminarily judging the moving path of the thunderstorm cloud. In another case, after the thunderstorm cloud moves for a certain time, the atmospheric electric field instrument Q25And atmosphere electric field instrument Q26The electric field intensity obtained by monitoring is maximum, and the same is true according to the electric field intensity E25Or E26Preliminarily determining the thunderstorm cloud position P according to the theory that the electric field intensity of point charge is inversely proportional to the square of the distance2. At this time, according to the position P1And P2Through P1And P2The straight line of (a) is a possible moving path of the thunderstorm cloud.
The process obtains the known possible movement path of the thunderstorm cloud, and the extension line of the known movement path of the thunderstorm rain is used as the simulated movement path L of the thunderstorm cloud. The vertical distance between the thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L and the area A, the deflection angle beta and the like are considered, so that the risk degree of the area A suffering from the lightning stroke is evaluated, namely, the larger the vertical distance between the thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L and the area A is, the larger the deflection angle beta is, the smaller the lightning stroke risk degree is, the smaller the vertical distance between the thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L and the area A is, the smaller the deflection angle beta is, and the larger the lightning stroke risk degree is.
In order to further improve the accuracy and reliability of judging the lightning stroke danger degree in the region, prevent the thunderstorm cloud from being influenced by factors such as airflow and the like, and prevent the lightning stroke danger degree from being influenced by the monitoring error of the electric field intensity, namely P1、P2In a preferred embodiment, the thunderstorm cloud simulated moving path L is corrected to obtain a corrected thunderstorm cloud simulated moving path L'. For example, the following method is adopted to simulate the moving path L for the thunderstorm cloud.
At position P1Constructing a modified thunderstorm cloud model for the vertexPseudo moving path L'And the modified thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L'Is positioned on one side of the thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L close to the area to be detected and forms a correction angle α with the thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L, the correction angle is preferably 3-10 degrees, and the thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L is corrected according to the corrected thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L'And correcting the lightning stroke risk degree of the area to be detected according to the distance between the lightning stroke risk degree and the area to be detected.
Further, in order to further clarify the lightning risk, and facilitate the manager to designate the corresponding lightning protection measure according to the lightning risk, and provide guidance for the lightning protection management work, the method of "simulating the distance between the moving path L and the area to be detected according to the thunderstorm cloud, and determining the lightning risk of the area to be detected" includes: the method comprises the steps of establishing a regional risk degree grading target by taking the center of a region to be measured (region A) as a circle center, wherein the regional risk degree grading target is composed of a plurality of concentric circles, different regional risk degree grades are formed between every two adjacent concentric circles, and the risk degree grades are gradually reduced from inside to outside. Obtaining the modified thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L'Simulating a moving path L by the modified thunderstorm cloud at the position on the regional risk classification target'The highest risk rating on a pass-zone risk rating target is the lightning strike risk for the zone at the current time.
For example, a regional risk classification target is established by taking the center of the region A as the center of a circle, and the regional risk classification target comprises a 0-level risk region, a I-level risk region, a II-level risk region and a III-level risk region from inside to outside. The 0-grade danger degree area is the position of the area A, is the area with the highest lightning risk degree and has the highest risk degree grade. The regional outside of A is I level danger degree region, and I level danger degree region outside is II level danger degree regions, and preferably, I level danger degree region covers near-end early warning device and far-end early warning device's maximum monitoring range with II level danger degree region. In a preferred embodiment, the width of the class i hazard zone is less than the width of the class ii hazard zone. For example, the level i risk area covers the maximum monitoring range of the near-end early warning device, and the level ii risk area covers the maximum monitoring range of the far-end early warning device. The class III risk area is a low risk area and has the lowest risk level.
While the invention has been described with reference to a preferred embodiment, it will be understood by those skilled in the art that various changes in form and detail may be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention.
Claims (9)
1. A method for judging regional lightning stroke risk degree is characterized by comprising the following steps:
a. acquiring the electric field intensity near a region to be detected;
b. comparing whether the electric field intensity near the area to be detected is larger than an early warning threshold value;
c. if yes, marking as the highest risk level; if not, acquiring the electric field intensity of the remote area to be detected;
d. comparing whether the electric field intensity of the far part of the area to be detected is larger than an early warning threshold value;
e. if not, marking as the lowest risk level; if yes, acquiring the position P of the maximum value in the electric field intensity of the remote area to be measured1；
f. After the interval time of △ t, obtaining the division P in the electric field intensity of the far region to be measured1Position P of the out-of-position maximum2；
g. According to position P1And position P2Acquiring a thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L;
h. and judging the lightning stroke risk degree of the area to be detected according to the distance between the thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L and the area to be detected.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the area lightning stroke risk is determined by the lightning stroke risk level,
step g, after the thunderstorm cloud simulated moving path L is obtained, the thunderstorm cloud simulated moving path is corrected, and the corrected thunderstorm cloud simulated moving path L is obtained'Wherein the method for correcting the thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path LThe method comprises the following steps: at position P1Constructing a modified thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L for the vertex'And the modified thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L'The thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L is positioned on one side close to the area to be detected, and forms a correction angle α with the thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L;
in step h, simulating a moving path L according to the modified thunderstorm cloud'And correcting the lightning stroke risk degree of the area to be detected according to the distance between the lightning stroke risk degree and the area to be detected.
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the correction angle α is 3 ° to 10 °.
4. The method for determining lightning stroke risk of area according to claim 2, wherein in step h, the method for determining lightning stroke risk of area to be detected according to the distance between the thunderstorm cloud simulated moving path L and the area to be detected comprises:
h1establishing a regional risk degree grading target by taking the center of a region to be measured as a circle center, wherein the regional risk degree grading target consists of a plurality of concentric circles, different regional risk degree grades are formed between every two adjacent concentric circles, and the risk degree grades are gradually reduced from inside to outside;
h2acquiring the modified thunderstorm cloud simulation moving path L'Simulating a moving path L by the modified thunderstorm cloud at the position on the regional risk classification target'The highest risk rating on a pass-zone risk rating target is the lightning strike risk for the zone at the current time.
5. The method according to claim 4, wherein the regional risk classification targets are from inside to outside and comprise a level 0 risk region, a level I risk region, a level II risk region and a level III risk region.
6. The method of determining the risk of lightning strikes on a region according to claim 5, wherein the width of said class I risk region is less than the width of said class II risk region.
7. The method according to claim 1, wherein the area lightning stroke risk is determined by the lightning stroke risk level,
firstly, a lightning detection system is established, the lightning monitoring system comprises a near-end early warning device and a far-end early warning device, and the near-end early warning device comprises a plurality of atmospheric electric field instruments Q distributed around an area to be detected1The far-end early warning device comprises a plurality of atmospheric electric field instruments Q which are uniformly arranged on the circumference taking the area to be measured as the center at intervals2And the atmospheric electric field instrument Q2The distance between the atmospheric electric field meter Q and the periphery of the area to be measured is close to that of the atmospheric electric field meter Q1The maximum monitoring radius of;
in the step a, an atmospheric electric field instrument Q is obtained1The detected electric field strength; in step c, obtaining an atmospheric electric field instrument Q2The detected electric field strength.
8. The method according to claim 6, wherein the area lightning stroke risk is determined by the lightning stroke risk level,
in step d, traversing all the atmospheric electric field instruments Q2Comparing whether the detected electric field intensity is greater than an early warning threshold value;
in step e, if all the atmospheric electric field instruments Q2If at least one of the detected electric field strengths is greater than the early warning threshold value, the atmospheric electric field instrument Q corresponding to the maximum value of the electric field strength is obtained2Position Q of2maxWith Q2maxAnd Q2maxRelative atmospheric electric field instrument Q2As a dividing line, a plurality of atmospheric electric field instruments Q2Symmetrically arranged at two sides of the dividing line;
in the step f, after the interval time of △ t, comparing the atmospheric electric field instruments Q at the symmetrical positions at the two sides of the dividing line2Obtaining the deflection direction of the thunderstorm cloud, and judging the deflection angle β of the thunderstorm cloud according to the intensity of the electric field;
and g, acquiring a simulated moving path L of the thunderstorm cloud according to the deflection direction and the deflection angle of the thunderstorm cloud.
9. The method for determining lightning stroke risk of area according to claim 6, wherein the far-end early warning device comprises a plurality of 8 atmospheric electric field meters Q uniformly spaced on a circumference centering on the area to be measured28 atmospheric electric field instrument Q2The detection device is respectively arranged in the true east, the true west, the true south, the true north, the southeast, the northeast, the southwest and the northwest directions of the region to be detected.
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