CN111385753B - Medical facility accessibility evaluation method based on mobile phone signaling data - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a medical facility reachability evaluation method based on mobile phone signaling data, aiming at the problem of medical facility space distribution fairness, and from the reachability perspective, considering supply-demand interaction, and evaluating the medical facility reachability by using an enhanced two-step mobile search method (E2 SFCA). The method comprehensively considers the influence of the travel time and the travel distance on the travel, defines the service range and the distance threshold of the medical facility according to the travel condition of the mobile phone user, and introduces a Gaussian attenuation function based on the time threshold to simulate the attenuation of travel attraction along with the travel time. The invention can simultaneously consider the accessibility of the medical facilities under different transportation modes and display the space distribution condition of the accessibility of the medical facilities under different transportation modes, thereby evaluating the space distribution equilibrium condition of the medical facilities and proposing suggestions for urban planning and equalization of the medical facilities.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to the technical field of information science, in particular to a medical facility reachability evaluation method based on mobile phone signaling data.
Background
Medical services are one of the important basic necessities for maintaining social functioning and the normal lives of people. In 2005, the 58 th world health conference called for member countries to achieve national health coverage, which means that citizens can get appropriate medical services when needed without much economic burden. Fairness in ensuring medical service accessibility is the basis for achieving the above goals, as the large unfairness in medical service accessibility will exaggerate the differences in health and quality of life. Meanwhile, due to uneven distribution of supply and demand of medical services and different socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, residents in various regions have different opportunities to obtain medical services.
And the space accessibility is one of important methods for measuring the space obstruction of the acquired public service, and the space accessibility considers the supply condition of the service and the distance factor for accessing the service. The decision maker can be provided with possible facility distribution differences by determining the existing reachability level. Such an approach is particularly common in healthcare facility services, for example, measuring the level of accessibility of a healthcare service may highlight potential imbalances in a healthcare service, and the like. Common medical service space accessibility assessment methods include a nearest distance method, a supply-demand ratio method, a gravity model and a mobile search method. Although each of these methods has its own advantages, most do not consider the important interaction between supply and potential needs, which may have a broader impact on the socio-economic differences offered by research.
At present, Chenguang et al discloses a medical facility reachability analysis method based on vehicle trajectory data and population distribution (CN 201810189945.0). The method adopts a modified gravitation model, carries out future land utilization simulation on a researched area in the FLUS model according to initial land utilization data and driving force data, and solves the future population distribution data of the researched area through a first linear regression model according to a simulation result; meanwhile, internal potential relations of vehicle track data, medical facility data, initial population distribution data, traffic distance and the like are mined, uncertain elastic coefficients in the improved gravitation model are solved, and finally the medical facility accessibility value is obtained through the corrected gravitation model.
In the existing public service facility research, data mostly come from resident survey data and facility data provided by relevant units, the data is old, and the data accuracy is more susceptible to subjective factors. Meanwhile, the traditional gravity model has difficulty in selecting an accurate and appropriate friction coefficient in different cases, and the use of an overlapped search area by a mobile search method (FCA) may result in an overestimation of local service requirements, resulting in a deviation of supply-demand ratio. And the reliance of mobile search methods (FCA) on subjectively defined search thresholds can also be problematic, particularly when estimating reachability in different geographic environments. But this is usually unavoidable due to lack of time/distance data for the user to travel to the service area.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the problem of the space distribution fairness of the medical facilities, from the accessibility perspective, the accessibility of the medical facilities is evaluated by an enhanced two-step mobile search method (E2SFCA) in consideration of supply and demand interaction. The method comprehensively considers the influence of the travel time and the travel distance on the travel, defines the service range and the distance threshold of the medical facility according to the travel condition of the mobile phone user, and introduces a Gaussian attenuation function based on the time threshold to simulate the attenuation of travel attraction along with the travel time. The invention can simultaneously consider the accessibility of the medical facilities under different transportation modes and display the space distribution condition of the accessibility of the medical facilities under different transportation modes, thereby evaluating the space distribution equilibrium condition of the medical facilities and proposing suggestions for urban planning and equalization of the medical facilities.
The technical scheme is as follows:
1. a medical facility accessibility evaluation method based on mobile phone signaling data comprises the following specific steps:
s1, identifying the user living base station and counting the living population of each base station according to the mobile phone signaling data and combining the base station data;
s2, judging a user parking point based on the mobile phone signaling data to obtain a base station travel OD matrix;
s3, identifying the medical facility location points and reading the supply information thereof according to the POI data of the public service facilities;
s4, screening out an OD matrix related to the facility, namely a supply and demand point travel OD matrix, according to the medical facility position points based on the base station travel OD matrix; crawling a travel cost matrix of the OD matrix by using a high-grade map to obtain time and distance cost matrixes required by different transportation modes between supply and demand point travel ODs;
s5, determining a distance search threshold and a time attenuation threshold according to the supply and demand point travel OD cost matrix, and further determining the actual service range of the medical facility;
and S6, performing accessibility evaluation on the medical facility by using a two-step mobile search method 2SFCA based on a space-time threshold value.
Preferably, in step S1, the mobile phone signaling data in the research time range of the research area is obtained, then the data during the working day is selected to identify the base station with the longest stay time of the user between 1:00 and 7:00, if the average stay time is longer than 2 hours, the base station is determined to be the residence, and the residence user information of each base station is counted to obtain the residence population number of the base station.
Preferably, in step S2, the specific determination rule is that when the time length of the user staying at a certain base station and a nearby base station exceeds 40 minutes, the base station is used as the parking point of the user, and then the base station travel OD matrix is obtained according to the travel parking point.
Preferably, step S4 screens the supply and demand point row OD matrix, and selects 7: 00-9: and (5) starting at the period of 00 and stopping at the periphery of the hospital, and crawling a supply and demand point travel OD cost matrix based on a high-grade map, namely the time and distance required by different transportation modes between supply and demand point travel ODs.
Preferably, step S5 includes the steps of:
s51, according to distance cost among supply and demand point travel ODs, taking travel distances of hospitals of different grades in different transportation modes as abscissa, drawing a curve graph by taking the proportion of travel times in the travel distances to total travel times as ordinate, and selecting the travel distance when the proportion reaches 80% as a distance search threshold;
s52, drawing a curve graph of travel time in different transportation modes and travel proportion in the travel time according to time cost between supply and demand point travel ODs under the condition that a distance search threshold is selected, and selecting the travel time when the travel proportion reaches 95% as a time attenuation threshold.
Preferably, step S6 includes the steps of:
s61, calculating the ratio R of medical supply HC to population demand Pj：
For each medical point j, search for a distance threshold range d0The moving range of the crowd starting from the point j and the resident population P in the range are combined with the travel time attenuation to calculate the ratio R of the supply to the population demand of the medical pointj：
Wherein:
in the formula, RjIndicating that the distance is within the threshold range (d) in consideration of travel time attenuationkjD) ratio of healthcare ability to population; HCjMedical supply information indicating the medical facility location point j, obtained in step S3; pkThe number of persons who live at point k is obtained in step S1; t is tkjRepresenting the travel time between the point k and the point j; t is t0Represents a time decay threshold; dkjRepresenting the travel distance between the point k and the point j; d0Represents a distance search threshold; g (t)kj，t0) Representing the time attenuation value between the point k and the point j;
s62, calculating the reachability index of the crowd
For each demand point i, searching medical facilities within a distance threshold range, and combining the sum of travel time attenuation statistics supply-demand ratios to obtain the medical facility accessibility evaluation of the demand point i
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
The invention has the advantages of
The method is based on the mobile phone data statistics of the base station resident population as the demand, is more real and accurate compared with data such as the statistics yearbook or resident survey used in the past research, is high in updating speed, and can better reflect the real demand situation.
The two-step mobile search method (2SFCA) can relatively comprehensively consider the situations of supply and demand parties when measuring the reachability, and is relatively common when measuring the reachability of service facilities. However, the general two-step mobile search method has a disadvantage that after the search area is divided by determining the search threshold, it is considered that each position in a certain search area of a facility has the same accessibility, which is obviously inconsistent with the actual situation. The invention provides an improved two-step mobile search method for evaluating the accessibility of medical facilities, which can solve the problem that the travel attraction and the accessibility are reduced along with the increase of travel time in the same search area. Meanwhile, the method is more rigorous in logic, more accords with the practical situation, and can effectively improve the accuracy and operability of the reachability analysis of the medical facilities, thereby providing scientific guidance for the equalization of medical resources in the future.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of the steps of the present invention
FIG. 2 is a relationship diagram of travel distance and travel proportion of the first-level hospital
FIG. 3 is a relationship diagram of the travel distance and the travel proportion of the secondary hospital
FIG. 4 is a relationship diagram of travel distance and travel proportion of the third-level hospital
FIG. 5 is a graph showing the relationship between travel time and travel ratio under the travel threshold condition of public transportation 10.5KM
FIG. 6 is a graph showing the relationship between travel time and travel ratio under the condition of the travel threshold of the car at 9.5KM
FIG. 7 is a comparison chart of the accessibility evaluation results of medical facilities obtained by three different transportation modes
Detailed Description
The invention is further illustrated by the following examples, without limiting the scope of the invention:
with reference to fig. 1, taking the mobile phone signaling data of 7 days from No. 4 to No. 10 in 2017 in kunshan city, jiangsu province as an example, meanwhile, the resident population is counted based on 3107 base stations, the thiessen polygons are divided according to the base stations to obtain population data within the range of the subdivided base stations, and finally, the counted population density information is obtained.
And step S2, judging a user parking point based on the mobile phone signaling data to obtain a base station travel OD matrix.
In step S3, the public service facility selects 347 th medical facility in kunshan city, including 5 th tertiary hospital (including the branch), 8 th secondary hospital, 7 th primary hospital, and 327 th other medical facility. The spatial distribution of medical facilities in Kunshan city is shown in FIG. 2.
Step S4, screening out an OD matrix related to the facility, namely a supply and demand point travel OD matrix, according to the medical facility position points based on the base station travel OD matrix; crawling a travel cost matrix of the OD matrix by using a high-grade map to obtain time and distance cost matrixes required by different transportation modes between supply and demand point travel ODs;
in step S51, 4483 pieces of data, 4810 pieces of data, and 3813 pieces of data are respectively counted for users who start at 7-9 times and stop around the hospital in the first-level hospital, the second-level hospital, and the third-level hospital respectively, and the relationship between the travel distance and the percentage of the travel times in the distance to the total travel times is obtained, which corresponds to fig. 2-4 respectively.
Finally, 10.5KM is selected as a search threshold value of public transportation for the grade hospital, 9.5KM is selected as a search threshold value of a car, and 3KM is selected as a search threshold value of walking to the grade hospital. For other medical facilities, 2.5KM was chosen as the search threshold for public transportation and cars, and 1KM was chosen as the search threshold for walking.
In step S52, for hospitals of different grades, under the travel threshold conditions of different transportation modes, the travel time of the residential points within the service range is analyzed, and the relationship between the travel time and the travel proportion is obtained: FIG. 5 is a diagram showing a relationship between travel time and travel proportion under a travel threshold condition of public transportation 10.5 KM; fig. 6 shows a relationship diagram of travel time and travel proportion under the condition of the travel threshold value of the car of 9.5 KM.
And finally selecting 3900s as a Gaussian function attenuation threshold value of public transportation for the grade hospital, selecting 1500s as the Gaussian function attenuation threshold value of the car, and selecting 1800s as the Gaussian function attenuation threshold value for the walk. For other medical facilities, 1000s is selected as the gaussian attenuation threshold for each mode.
The medical facility reachability evaluation in step S6 is performed by using a spatio-temporal threshold-based enhanced two-step mobile search method (2SFCA), and the results of the different manners are reflected in fig. 7 (from the right, respectively, the medical facility reachability in public transportation, the medical facility reachability in driving, and the medical facility reachability in walking), which represent relative reachability scores according to the respective transportation manners, and the maps are interpreted using the same classification and color scheme, the warmer color tone reflects that the area is more easily provided with medical services using a specific transportation manner, and the colder color tone reflects that the area has lower medical service reachability.
The specific embodiments described herein are merely illustrative of the spirit of the invention. Various modifications or additions may be made to the described embodiments or alternatives may be employed by those skilled in the art without departing from the spirit or ambit of the invention as defined in the appended claims.
Claims (6)
1. A medical facility reachability evaluation method based on mobile phone signaling data is characterized by comprising the following specific steps:
s1, identifying the user living base station and counting the living population of each base station according to the mobile phone signaling data and combining the base station data;
s2, judging a user parking point based on the mobile phone signaling data to obtain a base station travel OD matrix;
s3, identifying the medical facility position points and reading the supply information according to the POI data of the public service facilities, wherein the supply information refers to the number of bed numbers of the hospital;
s4, screening out an OD matrix related to the facility, namely a supply and demand point travel OD matrix, according to the medical facility position points based on the base station travel OD matrix; crawling a travel cost matrix of the OD matrix by using a high-grade map to obtain time and distance cost matrixes required by different transportation modes between supply and demand point travel ODs;
s5, determining a distance search threshold and a time attenuation threshold according to the supply and demand point travel OD cost matrix, and further determining the actual service range of the medical facility;
and S6, performing accessibility evaluation on the medical facility by using a two-step mobile search method 2SFCA based on a space-time threshold value.
2. The method as claimed in claim 1, wherein the step S1 is to obtain the mobile phone signaling data within the research time range of the research area, then select the base station with the longest stay time between 1:00 and 7:00 during the working day, if the average stay time is longer than 2 hours, determine the base station as the residence, and count the resident user information of each base station to obtain the residence population of the base station.
3. The method for assessing reachability of medical facility based on mobile phone signaling data as claimed in claim 1, wherein step S2 comprises the steps of:
s31, when the stay time of the user at a certain base station and the base station within the range of D from the base station exceeds 40 minutes, the base station is taken as the stay point of the user,
s32, if the user has two or more continuous stop points, the continuous stop point base stations form a pair of base stations OD,
s33, collecting base station OD of all users to obtain a base station travel OD matrix;
judging a user parking point based on the mobile phone signaling data to obtain a base station travel OD matrix;
based on the mobile phone signaling data, calculating the stay time of a base station, and when the stay time of a user in the range of a service radius threshold radius _ range by taking the base station as the center exceeds a parking time threshold min _ station _ time, taking the base station as a parking point of the user, and further obtaining a travel OD according to the travel parking point; in practice, radius _ range can take 800-1500 m, and min _ state _ time can take 40 min.
4. The method for assessing reachability of medical facility based on mobile phone signaling data as claimed in claim 1, wherein step S4 is implemented by screening a supply and demand point travel OD matrix, and selecting 7: 00-9: and (5) starting at the period of 00 and stopping at the periphery of the hospital, and crawling a supply and demand point travel OD cost matrix based on a high-grade map, namely the time and distance required by different transportation modes between supply and demand point travel ODs.
5. The method for assessing reachability of medical facility based on mobile phone signaling data as claimed in claim 1, wherein step S5 comprises the steps of:
s51, according to distance cost among supply and demand point travel ODs, taking travel distances of hospitals of different grades in different transportation modes as abscissa, drawing a curve graph by taking the proportion of travel times in the travel distances to total travel times as ordinate, and selecting the travel distance when the proportion reaches 80% as a distance search threshold;
s52, drawing a curve graph of travel time in different transportation modes and travel proportion in the travel time according to time cost between supply and demand point travel ODs under the condition that a distance search threshold is selected, and selecting the travel time when the travel proportion reaches 95% as a time attenuation threshold.
6. The method for assessing reachability of medical facility based on mobile phone signaling data as claimed in claim 1, wherein step S6 comprises the steps of:
s61, calculating the ratio R of medical supply HC to population demand Pj：
For each medical point j, search for a distance threshold range d0The moving range of the crowd starting from the point j and the resident population in the range, the population demand P is equal to the resident population in the range, and then the ratio R of the supply and the population demand of the medical point is calculated by combining the travel time attenuationj：
Wherein:
in the formula, RjIndicating that the distance is within the threshold range (d) in consideration of travel time attenuationkjD) ratio of healthcare ability to population; HCjRepresenting medical facilitiesMedical supply information of the position point j, obtained in step S3; pkIndicating a population demand at point k, obtained by step S1; t is tkjRepresenting the travel time between the point k and the point j; t is t0Represents a time decay threshold; dkjRepresenting the travel distance between the point k and the point j, and d representing a distance search threshold; d0Represents a distance search threshold; g (t)kj，t0) Representing the time attenuation value between the point k and the point j;
s62, calculating the reachability index of the crowd
For each demand point i, searching medical facilities within a distance threshold range, and combining the sum of travel time attenuation statistics supply-demand ratios to obtain the medical facility accessibility evaluation of the demand point i
Wherein the content of the first and second substances,
in the formula (I), the compound is shown in the specification,
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