CN111383452A - A short-term traffic operation state estimation and prediction method for urban road network - Google Patents

A short-term traffic operation state estimation and prediction method for urban road network Download PDF

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CN111383452A
CN111383452A CN201911219004.8A CN201911219004A CN111383452A CN 111383452 A CN111383452 A CN 111383452A CN 201911219004 A CN201911219004 A CN 201911219004A CN 111383452 A CN111383452 A CN 111383452A
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任刚
宋建华
曹奇
李豪杰
李大韦
张洁斐
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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for estimating and predicting short-term traffic running states of an urban road network, which comprises the following steps: (1) acquiring heterogeneous data, preprocessing the data, and reconstructing a speed field of a research unit by using a GASM algorithm by taking a road section between two signalized intersections in a city as the research unit; (2) constructing a spatial weight matrix of an urban road network, calculating the time-space correlation among all road sections, and identifying and quantifying the fragile road sections by adopting TOPSIS (technique for order preference by similarity to similarity); (3) taking the average value of the speeds according to the reconstructed speed field of the research unit and selecting a reasonable and fragile road section to construct a space-time characteristic matrix of the urban road network; (4) and estimating and predicting the traffic state of the whole road network according to the Bi-ConvLSTM. The method has the advantages that the speed field of the research unit is reconstructed by fusing heterogeneous data, the prediction limitation caused by a single data source is solved, meanwhile, Bi-ConvLSTM is adopted to consider the influence of the traffic speed of the upstream and downstream of the research unit, the space-time characteristic of the traffic flow is fully excavated, the prediction accuracy is further improved, and the like.

Description

一种城市路网短期交通运行状态估计与预测方法A short-term traffic operation state estimation and prediction method for urban road network

技术领域technical field

本发明属于智能交通技术领域,具体涉及一种城市路网短期交通运行状态估计与预测方法。The invention belongs to the technical field of intelligent transportation, and in particular relates to a short-term traffic operation state estimation and prediction method of an urban road network.

背景技术Background technique

随着社会经济的高速发展以及5G信息技术革命的到来,使人们的生活变得更为便捷,同时为交通行业带来新的契机。尤其智能交通领域的快速发展,有望解决交通拥堵、交通环境等交通难题。With the rapid development of the social economy and the advent of the 5G information technology revolution, people's lives have become more convenient and new opportunities have been brought to the transportation industry. In particular, the rapid development of the field of intelligent transportation is expected to solve traffic problems such as traffic congestion and traffic environment.

城市道路交通状态的实时监控和精确的交通状态信息发布是保障交通安全和运行效率的重要基础。根据道路的实时交通状态信息可以实现对交通合理、科学的管理和控制,减少拥挤的发生,充分发挥路网资源,为道路使用者缩短出行时间等方面有着重要的现实意义。因此,实时准确的交通状态信息估计与预测成为至关重要的环节。但目前的研究并未充分考虑异构数据对全路网交通状态估计作用以及交通流上下游的相互影响,导致路网层面的预测精度不能够达到要求。Real-time monitoring of urban road traffic status and accurate traffic status information release are important foundations to ensure traffic safety and operational efficiency. According to the real-time traffic status information of the road, it can realize the rational and scientific management and control of traffic, reduce the occurrence of congestion, give full play to the resources of the road network, and shorten the travel time for road users, which has important practical significance. Therefore, real-time and accurate traffic state information estimation and prediction becomes a crucial link. However, the current research does not fully consider the effect of heterogeneous data on the estimation of the traffic state of the entire road network and the interaction between the upstream and downstream of the traffic flow, resulting in that the prediction accuracy at the road network level cannot meet the requirements.

当预测全路网的交通状态时,路网中路段之间的上游和下游交通状态不能够忽略不计,而一般深度学习方法都是单向进行预测,例如Conv-LSTM模型,有的研究虽然进行双向交通状态预测,但对于交通空间特征并没有很好地挖掘,例如Bidirectional LSTM模型,在预测时有些关键信息可能会被模型过滤掉,导致最终的预测结果存在一定的偏差。When predicting the traffic state of the entire road network, the upstream and downstream traffic states between the road segments in the road network cannot be ignored, and the general deep learning method is one-way prediction, such as the Conv-LSTM model, although some studies are carried out Two-way traffic state prediction, but the traffic space features are not well mined, such as the Bidirectional LSTM model, some key information may be filtered out by the model during prediction, resulting in a certain deviation in the final prediction result.

发明内容SUMMARY OF THE INVENTION

为解决上述问题,本发明公开了一种城市路网短期交通运行状态估计与预测方法,解决了现有预测方法在时空维度上考虑不够全面的问题,进一步提高预测精度,对未来城市交通管理者和使用者提供准确的交通信息,同时对智能交通系统的建设也具有较大意义。In order to solve the above problems, the present invention discloses a method for estimating and predicting the short-term traffic operation state of an urban road network, which solves the problem that the existing prediction methods are not comprehensive enough in the space-time dimension, further improves the prediction accuracy, and is very useful for future urban traffic managers. It provides accurate traffic information to users, and is of great significance to the construction of intelligent transportation systems.

为达到上述目的,本发明的技术方案如下:For achieving the above object, technical scheme of the present invention is as follows:

一种城市路网短期交通运行状态估计与预测方法,包括以下步骤:A method for estimating and predicting the short-term traffic operation state of an urban road network, comprising the following steps:

(1)获取城市出租车GPS数据和城市道路测速卡口数据,对异构数据进行预处理;(1) Obtain urban taxi GPS data and urban road speed measurement bayonet data, and preprocess heterogeneous data;

(2)以两个交叉口之间的路段作为研究单元,通过利用广义自适应平滑算法(GASM)融合出租车GPS速度和卡口速度,重构研究单元(路段)的实际交通状态;(2) Taking the road section between the two intersections as the research unit, by using the generalized adaptive smoothing algorithm (GASM) to fuse the taxi GPS speed and the checkpoint speed, the actual traffic state of the research unit (road section) is reconstructed;

(3)根据融合后的交通状态求路段的平均速度;(3) Calculate the average speed of the road section according to the integrated traffic state;

(4)建立城市路网空间权重矩阵;(4) Establish a spatial weight matrix of urban road network;

(5)计算路段之间的时空相关性;(5) Calculate the spatiotemporal correlation between road segments;

(6)基于逼近理想点排序法(TOPSIS)识别并量化脆弱路段;(6) Identify and quantify vulnerable road sections based on approaching ideal point ranking method (TOPSIS);

(7)生成输入数据,即城市路网的时空矩阵,一个N*D的特征矩阵,其描述了道路上交通速度随时间的变化。其中N为脆弱路段数,D为时间间隔;(7) Generate input data, that is, the spatiotemporal matrix of the urban road network, an N*D feature matrix, which describes the change of the traffic speed on the road with time. where N is the number of vulnerable road sections, and D is the time interval;

(8)本发明基于Bi-LSTM和CNN模型各自优势并进行结合,即利用Bi-ConvLSTM提取全路网交通状态的时空特征,并得到全路网当前时刻和下一时刻的交通状态估计和预测值。(8) The present invention is based on the respective advantages of the Bi-LSTM and CNN models and combines them, that is, the Bi-ConvLSTM is used to extract the spatiotemporal characteristics of the traffic state of the entire road network, and the traffic state estimation and prediction of the current moment and the next moment of the entire road network are obtained. value.

本发明的有益效果是:The beneficial effects of the present invention are:

本发明所述的城市路网短期交通运行状态估计与预测方法,将以城市出租车GPS数据和路网测速卡口数据作为基础数据,通过广义自适应平滑算法(GASM)融合出租车数据和卡口数据,对实际交通流进行重构,真实地反映实际的城市路段交通速度的变化。这种方法有效地解决了交通状态估计精度低和单一数据源估计误差大等问题,有效提高了真实路段的交通运行状态,为进一步估计与预测全路网的交通状态打下坚实的基础。通过定义路网中脆弱路段,利用双向卷积长短期记忆神经网络对整个城市路网层面的交通状态进行精准估计与短时预测。通过精准地反映城市路网交通状态演变规律,进而为道路交通管理者和使用者提供最优的交通管控措施和出行计划。The method for estimating and predicting the short-term traffic operation state of the urban road network in the present invention takes the urban taxi GPS data and the road network speed measurement bayonet data as the basic data, and fuses the taxi data and the taxi data through the generalized adaptive smoothing algorithm (GASM). It reconstructs the actual traffic flow and truly reflects the change of traffic speed in the actual urban road section. This method effectively solves the problems of low accuracy of traffic state estimation and large estimation error from a single data source, effectively improves the traffic operation state of real road sections, and lays a solid foundation for further estimating and predicting the traffic state of the entire road network. By defining the vulnerable road sections in the road network, the bidirectional convolutional long short-term memory neural network is used to accurately estimate and short-term predict the traffic state of the entire urban road network. By accurately reflecting the evolution law of urban road network traffic conditions, it can provide road traffic managers and users with optimal traffic control measures and travel plans.

附图说明Description of drawings

图1为本发明的城市路网短时交通运行状态估计与预测方法流程图。FIG. 1 is a flowchart of the method for estimating and predicting the short-term traffic operation state of the urban road network according to the present invention.

图2为LSTM结构示意图。Figure 2 is a schematic diagram of the LSTM structure.

图3为BDC-LSTM结构示意图。Figure 3 is a schematic diagram of the structure of BDC-LSTM.

具体实施方式Detailed ways

下面结合附图和具体实施方式,进一步阐明本发明,应理解下述具体实施方式仅用于说明本发明而不用于限制本发明的范围。The present invention will be further clarified below with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments. It should be understood that the following specific embodiments are only used to illustrate the present invention and not to limit the scope of the present invention.

本发明的一些缩写的名词解释:Some abbreviations of the present invention are explained:

GASM(General adaptive smoothing method,广义自适应平滑法),GASM (General adaptive smoothing method, generalized adaptive smoothing method),

TOPSIS(Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an IdealSolution,基于逼近理想点排序法),TOPSIS (Technique for Order Preference by Similarity to an IdealSolution),

Bi-ConvLSTM(Bi-directional LSTM,双向长短时记忆网络;CNN,ConvolutionalNeural Network,卷积神经网络,融合后简写Bi-ConvLSTM,双向卷积长短时记忆神经网络)。Bi-ConvLSTM (Bi-directional LSTM, bidirectional long and short-term memory network; CNN, ConvolutionalNeural Network, convolutional neural network, abbreviated Bi-ConvLSTM after fusion, bidirectional convolutional long and short-term memory neural network).

如图1所示为本发明所述实施的城市路网短时交通运行状态估计与预测方法流程图,具体步骤包括:Figure 1 is a flowchart of the method for estimating and predicting the short-term traffic operation state of the urban road network implemented according to the present invention, and the specific steps include:

001,获取城市出租车GPS数据和城市道路测速卡口数据,对异构数据进行预处理;001, to obtain urban taxi GPS data and urban road speed measurement bayonet data, and preprocess heterogeneous data;

002,以两个交叉口之间的路段作为研究单元,通过利用广义自适应平滑算法(GASM)融合出租车GPS速度和卡口速度,重构研究单元(路段)的实际交通状态;002, taking the road section between the two intersections as the research unit, by using the generalized adaptive smoothing algorithm (GASM) to fuse the GPS speed of the taxi and the speed of the checkpoint, reconstruct the actual traffic state of the research unit (road section);

003,根据融合后的交通状态求路段的平均速度;003, find the average speed of the road section according to the fused traffic state;

004,建立城市路网空间权重矩阵;004, establish the spatial weight matrix of urban road network;

005,计算路段之间的时空相关性;005, calculate the spatiotemporal correlation between road segments;

006,基于TOPSIS识别并量化脆弱路段;006. Identify and quantify vulnerable road sections based on TOPSIS;

007,生成输入数据,即城市路网的时空矩阵,一个N*D的特征矩阵,其描述了道路上交通速度随时间的变化。其中N为脆弱路段数,D为时间间隔。007. Generate input data, that is, a spatiotemporal matrix of the urban road network, an N*D feature matrix, which describes the change of the traffic speed on the road with time. where N is the number of vulnerable road sections, and D is the time interval.

008,本发明基于Bi-LSTM和CNN模型各自优势并进行结合,即利用Bi-ConvLSTM对全路网交通状态的时空特征进行提取,并得到全路网当前时刻和下一时刻的交通状态估计和预测值。008, the present invention is based on the respective advantages of Bi-LSTM and CNN models and combines them, that is, using Bi-ConvLSTM to extract the spatiotemporal characteristics of the traffic state of the entire road network, and obtain the current moment and next moment of the entire road network. Predictive value.

上述技术方案中,所述步骤002的实现方法为:In the above technical solution, the implementation method of step 002 is:

由于收集的交通数据一般呈离散且稀疏的情况,因此有必要利用广义自适应平滑算法(GASM)重构连续速度场以实现精确的交通状态。输入数据为一个离散的数据点集{xi,ti,vi},i=1,...,n,输出为连续速度场V(x,t),计算公式如下:Since the collected traffic data is generally discrete and sparse, it is necessary to reconstruct the continuous velocity field using the generalized adaptive smoothing algorithm (GASM) to achieve accurate traffic states. The input data is a discrete set of data points {x i ,t i ,vi }, i =1,...,n, and the output is a continuous velocity field V(x,t), the formula is as follows:

Figure BDA0002300271460000031
Figure BDA0002300271460000031

其中:x是空间坐标;t时间坐标;vi是点i的速度值;平滑核函数φi(x,t)随着|x|和|t|增加而减少。where: x is the space coordinate; t is the time coordinate; v i is the velocity value of point i; the smoothing kernel function φ i (x, t) decreases as |x| and |t| increase.

核函数计算公式如下:The kernel function calculation formula is as follows:

Figure BDA0002300271460000032
Figure BDA0002300271460000032

其中:点(x,t)为估计点,(xi,ti)为已收集数据点,σ为两个相邻检测器距离的一半,τ为检测器采样时间的一半;同时定义归一化函数如下式:where: point (x,t) is the estimated point, (x i ,t i ) is the collected data point, σ is half the distance between two adjacent detectors, τ is half the detector sampling time; The transformation function is as follows:

Figure BDA0002300271460000033
Figure BDA0002300271460000033

为了能够真实地反映交通流的传播情况,GASM通过调整核函数实现拥挤交通流Vcong(x,t)和自由流Vfree(x,t)的速度估计分别如下所示:In order to truly reflect the propagation of traffic flow, GASM realizes the speed estimation of congested traffic flow V cong (x, t) and free flow V free (x, t) by adjusting the kernel function as follows:

Figure BDA0002300271460000034
Figure BDA0002300271460000034

Figure BDA0002300271460000035
Figure BDA0002300271460000035

其中:cfree和ccong分别为拥堵和自由流情况下的传播速度。where: c free and c cong are the propagation velocities under congestion and free flow, respectively.

则交通流的连续速度场组成如下:Then the continuous velocity field of the traffic flow is composed as follows:

V(x,t)=w(x,t)Vcong(x,t)+[1-w(x,t)]Vfree(x,t) (6)V(x,t)=w(x,t)V cong (x,t)+[1-w(x,t)]V free (x,t) (6)

其中w(x,t)是拥堵和自由流交通状态的权重函数,该函数用S型非线性函数表示:where w(x,t) is the weight function of congestion and free-flow traffic states, which is represented by a sigmoid nonlinear function:

Figure BDA0002300271460000041
Figure BDA0002300271460000041

因此,基于异构数据的交通状态由以下公式计算:Therefore, the traffic state based on heterogeneous data is calculated by the following formula:

Figure BDA0002300271460000042
Figure BDA0002300271460000042

其中:z(x,t)是基于异构数据估计后的交通状态;

Figure BDA0002300271460000043
是数据源j在数据点i相应的核函数(见公式(2));α(j)(x,t)是衡量数据源j在点(x,t)的可靠性动态指标的权重因子。α(j)(x,t)的计算公式如下:Where: z(x,t) is the estimated traffic state based on heterogeneous data;
Figure BDA0002300271460000043
is the corresponding kernel function of data source j at data point i (see formula (2)); α (j) (x, t) is a weight factor to measure the reliability dynamic index of data source j at point (x, t). The calculation formula of α (j) (x,t) is as follows:

Figure BDA0002300271460000044
Figure BDA0002300271460000044

其中:

Figure BDA0002300271460000045
数据源j的估计平均速度,
Figure BDA0002300271460000046
数据源j测量误差的标准差,指数kj反映数据源j的测量误差随平均速度的改变而发生变化。in:
Figure BDA0002300271460000045
the estimated average velocity of data source j,
Figure BDA0002300271460000046
The standard deviation of the measurement error of data source j, and the index k j reflects the change of the measurement error of data source j with the change of the average speed.

上述技术方案中,步骤004的实现方法为:In the above technical solution, the implementation method of step 004 is:

道路网络空间邻接矩阵从网络拓扑角度来描述不同空间对象之间的邻接关系。复杂道路网络一般抽象为一个有向图G=(N,L),其由N个节点和L条边组成。在图论中邻接关系用下式表达:The road network spatial adjacency matrix describes the adjacency relationship between different spatial objects from the perspective of network topology. A complex road network is generally abstracted as a directed graph G=(N, L), which consists of N nodes and L edges. In graph theory, the adjacency relationship is expressed by the following formula:

Figure BDA0002300271460000047
Figure BDA0002300271460000047

Figure BDA0002300271460000048
是k阶邻接矩阵中边i和j相邻的权重,并构成N×N空间权重邻接矩阵Ek,路网的综合空间邻接矩阵为
Figure BDA0002300271460000049
通过行标准化的方法将空间邻接矩阵转化为空间权重矩阵,即
Figure BDA00023002714600000410
因此,一个含有N个空间单元的研究对象,其空间权重矩阵表达如下:
Figure BDA0002300271460000048
is the adjacent weight of edges i and j in the k-order adjacency matrix, and constitutes an N×N spatial weight adjacency matrix E k . The comprehensive spatial adjacency matrix of the road network is
Figure BDA0002300271460000049
The spatial adjacency matrix is transformed into a spatial weight matrix by row normalization, namely
Figure BDA00023002714600000410
Therefore, for a research object with N spatial units, the spatial weight matrix is expressed as follows:

Figure BDA00023002714600000411
Figure BDA00023002714600000411

上述技术方案中,步骤005的实现方法为:In the above technical solution, the implementation method of step 005 is:

道路网络中交通状态相互影响,因此量化路段间的时空关系十分必要。通过皮尔逊相关函数可以度量两个对象在时间序列上的相关性,同时考虑空间关系的影响,并利用步骤003中得到的路段平均速度,引入空间因子

Figure BDA00023002714600000412
作为量化相邻路段的综合速度,其计算公式如下:Traffic states in a road network affect each other, so it is necessary to quantify the spatiotemporal relationship between road segments. Through the Pearson correlation function, the correlation between the two objects in the time series can be measured, and the influence of the spatial relationship can be considered at the same time, and the average speed of the road segment obtained in step 003 can be used to introduce the spatial factor
Figure BDA00023002714600000412
To quantify the comprehensive speed of adjacent road sections, its calculation formula is as follows:

Figure BDA00023002714600000413
Figure BDA00023002714600000413

其中:表示路段i在t时刻的交通速度,wij为路段i和j相邻的权重,i∈[1,R]in: represents the traffic speed of road segment i at time t, w ij is the adjacent weight of road segment i and j, i∈[1,R]

R是路段数量,t∈[1,T],T是统计时段长度,t时间间隔。R is the number of road segments, t∈[1,T], T is the length of the statistical period, t time interval.

路段i和其相邻路段的速度相关性如下式所示:The speed correlation between road segment i and its adjacent road segments is as follows:

Figure BDA0002300271460000051
Figure BDA0002300271460000051

其中

Figure BDA0002300271460000052
是路段i在统计时段T内交通速度
Figure BDA0002300271460000053
的平均值,
Figure BDA0002300271460000054
综合速度
Figure BDA0002300271460000055
的平均值,s表示时间延迟。in
Figure BDA0002300271460000052
is the traffic speed of road segment i in the statistical period T
Figure BDA0002300271460000053
average of,
Figure BDA0002300271460000054
Comprehensive speed
Figure BDA0002300271460000055
, and s represents the time delay.

上述技术方案中,步骤006的实现方法为:In the above technical solution, the implementation method of step 006 is:

为了避免大规模地计算城市路网的交通状态,有效提取脆弱路段对于推演全路网的交通状态至关重要。本发明采用TOPSIS方法实现脆弱路段识别,其计算步骤如下:In order to avoid the large-scale calculation of the traffic status of the urban road network, the effective extraction of vulnerable road sections is crucial to deduce the traffic status of the entire road network. The present invention adopts the TOPSIS method to realize the identification of vulnerable road sections, and its calculation steps are as follows:

①定义正理想方案A+和负理想方案A- ①Define the positive ideal scheme A + and the negative ideal scheme A-

A+(s)={maxCori(s)|s∈(1,2,...,S),1≤i≤R} (14)A + (s)={maxCor i (s)|s∈(1,2,...,S),1≤i≤R} (14)

A-(s)={minCori(s)|s∈(1,2,...,S),1≤i≤R} (15)A - (s)={minCor i (s)|s∈(1,2,...,S),1≤i≤R} (15)

其中,A+(s)和A-(s)分别是正、负理想方案;R是路网中路段数量,S是时间延迟s的取值的集合。Among them, A + (s) and A - (s) are the positive and negative ideal schemes, respectively; R is the number of road segments in the road network, and S is the set of values of the time delay s.

②计算每个时间延迟下的权重②Calculate the weight under each time delay

为了考虑相近时间间隔内交通状态更相近,因此不同的时间延迟下的权重由欧氏距离计算如下:In order to consider that the traffic states are more similar in similar time intervals, the weights under different time delays are calculated by the Euclidean distance as follows:

Figure BDA0002300271460000056
Figure BDA0002300271460000056

由于较大权重被分配到更相近的交通状态,将其转化如下:Since larger weights are assigned to more similar traffic states, it is transformed as follows:

Figure BDA0002300271460000057
Figure BDA0002300271460000057

其中max(Ed)和min(Ed)分别为欧氏距离集中最大值和最小值。where max(Ed) and min(Ed) are the maximum and minimum values in the Euclidean distance set, respectively.

③计算距离③ Calculate the distance

计算各路段时空相关性与正、负理想方案的距离,通过取欧氏加权距离,计算公式如下:Calculate the distance between the spatiotemporal correlation of each road segment and the positive and negative ideal solutions, and by taking the Euclidean weighted distance, the calculation formula is as follows:

Figure BDA0002300271460000058
Figure BDA0002300271460000058

Figure BDA0002300271460000059
Figure BDA0002300271460000059

其中:

Figure BDA00023002714600000510
Figure BDA00023002714600000511
分别是路段i与正、负理想方案的加权距离,其他变量与(14)-(15)定义一样。in:
Figure BDA00023002714600000510
and
Figure BDA00023002714600000511
are the weighted distances between the road segment i and the positive and negative ideal solutions, respectively, and other variables are the same as those defined in (14)-(15).

④计算相似度④ Calculate the similarity

计算路段i和其相邻路段在全部时间延迟下与理想方案的相似度,以度量各路段与其邻接路段的交通状态之间影响程度的大小。计算公式如下:Calculate the similarity of road segment i and its adjacent road segments to the ideal solution under all time delays to measure the degree of influence between the traffic state of each road segment and its adjacent road segments. Calculated as follows:

Figure BDA0002300271460000061
Figure BDA0002300271460000061

其中Ci是路段i与理想方案的相似度,即路段的重要程度。Ci=1表示路段i时空相关性为最好情况,其影响程度最大,反之亦然。与其他变量与公式(18)-(19)定义一样。where C i is the similarity between the road segment i and the ideal solution, that is, the importance of the road segment. C i =1 indicates that the spatiotemporal correlation of road segment i is the best case, and its influence degree is the greatest, and vice versa. The same as the other variables are defined with equations (18)-(19).

⑤根据Ci对路段影响程度排序并提取脆弱路段⑤ Sort and extract vulnerable road sections according to the influence degree of C i on road sections

首先根据计算各路段的Ci值并进行排序,然后基于提取比例α得到部分路段,将这部分路段视为脆弱路段,即最易拥堵的路段看作脆弱路段,并利用脆弱路段的交通特征估计和预测全路网的交通状态。First, calculate and sort the C i value of each road section, and then obtain some road sections based on the extraction ratio α, and regard these sections as vulnerable sections, that is, the most easily congested sections are regarded as vulnerable sections, and use the traffic characteristics of vulnerable sections to estimate and predict the traffic status of the entire road network.

上述技术方案中,步骤007的实现方法为:In the above technical solution, the implementation method of step 007 is:

生成输入数据,即城市路网的时空特征矩阵,一个N*D的特征矩阵,其描述了道路上速度随时间的变化。其时空矩阵一般表达为如下式:Generate the input data, that is, the spatiotemporal feature matrix of the urban road network, an N*D feature matrix, which describes the change of speed on the road over time. Its space-time matrix is generally expressed as the following formula:

Figure BDA0002300271460000062
Figure BDA0002300271460000062

其中N为脆弱路段数,D为时间延迟的数量,xit为路段i在时间t的平均交通速度,即为根据融合后的交通状态求路段i的平均速度。where N is the number of vulnerable road segments, D is the number of time delays, and x it is the average traffic speed of road segment i at time t, that is, the average speed of road segment i based on the fused traffic state.

上述技术方案中,步骤008的实现方法为:In the above technical solution, the implementation method of step 008 is:

本发明基于Bi-LSTM和CNN模型各自的优势并进行结合,即利用Bi-ConvLSTM实现对全路网的交通状态估计与预测。通过该模型对历史交通速度数据进行空间相关特征和时间相关特征的提取,最终结合这些特征进行估计与预测。The present invention is based on the respective advantages of the Bi-LSTM and the CNN model and combines them, that is, the Bi-ConvLSTM is used to realize the estimation and prediction of the traffic state of the entire road network. Through this model, the historical traffic speed data is extracted with spatial correlation features and time correlation features, and finally these features are combined for estimation and prediction.

上述空间相关特征是通过CNN模型从当前路段的交通状态和当前路段相邻路段的交通状态序列中提取得到,用于表示当前路段与相邻路段之间交通状态的相关性;时间相关特征是采用Bi-LSTM模型,通过考虑每时刻的交通状态是一个时间序列且考虑到当前路段受上下游交通流的影响状态中提取得到,该模型最终得到当前路段的正反向交通状态信息,更好地提取实际交通特征,进而降低预测误差。The above spatial correlation features are extracted from the traffic state of the current road segment and the traffic state sequence of the adjacent road segments of the current road segment through the CNN model, and are used to represent the correlation between the traffic state of the current road segment and the adjacent road segments; The Bi-LSTM model is extracted by considering that the traffic state at each moment is a time series and considering that the current road segment is affected by the upstream and downstream traffic flow, the model finally obtains the forward and reverse traffic state information of the current road segment, which is better Extract actual traffic features, thereby reducing prediction errors.

通过上述步骤构建的城市交通速度数据充分地训练Bi-ConvLSTM模型。与一般的LSTM相似,如图2所示,在Bi-ConvLSTM模型中,输入x1,...,xt,cell输出C1,...,Ct,隐藏状态h1,...,ht均为3D张量。每个cell中包含有三部分即输入门it,遗忘门ft,输出门ot。Bi-ConvLSTM模型通过其本地邻居的输入和过去状态来确定某个单元的未来状态。ConvLSTM模型的计算公式如下所示:The Bi-ConvLSTM model is adequately trained on the urban traffic speed data constructed by the above steps. Similar to general LSTM, as shown in Figure 2, in Bi-ConvLSTM model, input x 1 ,...,x t , cell output C 1 ,...,C t , hidden state h 1 ,... , h t are 3D tensors. Each cell contains three parts, namely the input gate it, the forget gate ft , and the output gate ot . The Bi-ConvLSTM model determines the future state of a cell from the inputs and past states of its local neighbors. The calculation formula of the ConvLSTM model is as follows:

Figure BDA0002300271460000071
Figure BDA0002300271460000071

其中it,ft,Ct,ot,ht,分别表示输入门,遗忘门,细胞状态更新,输出门和隐藏状态;σ和tanh分别表示sigmoid函数和双曲正切函数的激活函数;*和

Figure BDA0002300271460000072
分别表示卷积算子和哈达玛积;W和b表示相应的权重矩阵和偏差。where i t , f t , C t , o t , h t , respectively represent the input gate, forget gate, cell state update, output gate and hidden state; σ and tanh represent the activation functions of the sigmoid function and the hyperbolic tangent function, respectively; *and
Figure BDA0002300271460000072
represent the convolution operator and Hadamard product, respectively; W and b represent the corresponding weight matrix and bias.

在Bi-ConvLSTM中,如图3所示,前向输出结果序列

Figure BDA0002300271460000073
是从时间T-n到T-1使用正向输入序列迭代计算,反向输出结果序列
Figure BDA0002300271460000074
是从时间T-n到T-1使用反向输入序列迭代计算,最终为输出结果向量,在其中每个元素的结果由以下公式进行融合:In Bi-ConvLSTM, as shown in Figure 3, the result sequence is output in the forward direction
Figure BDA0002300271460000073
It is iteratively calculated from time Tn to T-1 using the forward input sequence, and the reverse output sequence
Figure BDA0002300271460000074
is iteratively calculated from time Tn to T-1 using the reverse input sequence, and finally is the output result vector, in which the result of each element is fused by the following formula:

Figure BDA0002300271460000075
Figure BDA0002300271460000075

其中σg函数被用于融合前向、反向输出的两个结果向量,该函数可以是求和函数,平均函数等等。The σ g function is used to fuse the two result vectors of the forward and reverse outputs. The function can be a summation function, an average function, and so on.

该模型Bi-ConvLSTM对实际案例进行应用时,所涉及到的Bi-LSTM模型的时间序列步长和隐藏层个数,CNN模型的网络层数,卷积核大小、步长以及各全连接层的神经元个数等这些参数,本领域技术人员都可以根据具体的需求进行配置,在此不再一一说明。When the model Bi-ConvLSTM is applied to actual cases, the time series step size and the number of hidden layers of the Bi-LSTM model involved, the number of network layers of the CNN model, the size of the convolution kernel, the step size, and the fully connected layers These parameters, such as the number of neurons, can be configured by those skilled in the art according to specific requirements, and will not be described one by one here.

以上对本发明实施例所提供的一种城市路网短时交通运行状态估计与预测方法进行了详细介绍,本文对本发明的原理及实施方式进行了阐述,以上实施例的说明只是用于帮助本发明的方法及其核心思想;同时,对于本领域的一般技术人员,依据本发明的思想,在具体实施方式及应用范围上均会有改变之处,综上所述,本说明书内容不应理解为对本发明的限制。A method for estimating and predicting the short-term traffic operation state of an urban road network provided by the embodiments of the present invention has been described above in detail. This article describes the principles and implementations of the present invention. The descriptions of the above embodiments are only used to assist the present invention. At the same time, for those skilled in the art, according to the idea of the present invention, there will be changes in the specific implementation and application scope. In summary, the content of this specification should not be construed as Limitations of the present invention.

Claims (7)

1. A method for estimating and predicting short-term traffic running states of an urban road network is characterized by comprising the following steps: the method comprises the following steps:
(1) acquiring urban taxi GPS data and urban road speed measuring card port data, and preprocessing heterogeneous data;
(2) the method comprises the steps that a road section between two intersections serves as a research unit, and the GPS speed and the gate speed of a taxi are fused by using a GASM (generalized adaptive smoothing algorithm), so that the actual traffic state of the research unit is reconstructed;
(3) solving the average speed of the road section according to the fused traffic state;
(4) establishing a spatial weight matrix of an urban road network;
(5) calculating the space-time correlation between road sections;
(6) identifying and quantifying vulnerable road sections based on a TOPSIS method, namely an approximate ideal point sorting method;
(7) input data, i.e. a spatio-temporal matrix of the urban road network, a N x D characteristic matrix is generated, which describes the traffic speed over the road as a function of time. Wherein N is the number of vulnerable segments and D is the time interval;
(8) based on the respective advantages of the Bi-LSTM and the CNN models, the Bi-ConvLSTM is used for extracting the space-time characteristics of the traffic state of the whole road network, and the estimation and prediction values of the traffic state of the whole road network at the current moment and the next moment are obtained.
2. The method for estimating and predicting the short-term traffic operation state of the urban road network according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the implementation method of the step (2) comprises the following steps:
the input data is a discrete set of data points { x }i,ti,vi1, the output is a continuous velocity field V (x, t), which is calculated as follows:
Figure FDA0002300271450000011
wherein: x is the spatial coordinate, t time coordinate, viIs the velocity value of point i, smoothing kernel function phii(x, t) decreases as | x | and | t | increase;
the kernel function calculation formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0002300271450000012
wherein: point (x, t) is the evaluation point, (x)i,ti) For the collected data points, σ is half the distance between two adjacent detectors, and τ is half the sampling time of the detectors; the normalization function is also defined as follows:
Figure FDA0002300271450000013
GASM realizes congestion traffic flow V by adjusting kernel functioncong(x, t) and free stream VfreeThe velocity estimates of (x, t) are respectively as follows:
Figure FDA0002300271450000014
Figure FDA0002300271450000015
wherein: c. CfreeAnd ccongPropagation speeds under congested and free-flow conditions, respectively;
the continuous speed field of the traffic flow then consists of:
V(x,t)=w(x,t)Vcong(x,t)+[1-w(x,t)]Vfree(x,t) (6)
where w (x, t) is a weighted function of congestion and free stream traffic conditions, which is represented by an S-shaped nonlinear function:
Figure FDA0002300271450000021
thus, the traffic state based on heterogeneous data is calculated by the following formula:
Figure FDA0002300271450000022
wherein: z (x, t) is the traffic state estimated based on the heterogeneous data;
Figure FDA0002300271450000023
is the corresponding kernel function of the data source j at the data point i α(j)(x, t) is a measure of the reliability dynamics of the data source j at point (x, t)
Weighting factor of index α(j)The calculation formula of (x, t) is as follows:
Figure FDA0002300271450000024
wherein:
Figure FDA0002300271450000025
the estimated average velocity of the data source j,
Figure FDA0002300271450000026
standard deviation of measurement error of data source j, index kjThe measurement error reflecting data source j varies with the change in average velocity.
3. The method for estimating and predicting the short-term traffic operation state of the urban road network according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the implementation method of the step (4) comprises the following steps:
the complex road network is abstracted into a directed graph G (N, L) to express the topological relation of the road network, a directed graph consisting of N nodes and L edges is established, and the adjacency relation in the graph theory is expressed by the following formula:
Figure FDA0002300271450000027
Figure FDA0002300271450000028
is the weight of the adjacent edges i and j in the k-order adjacency matrix and forms an N × N space weight adjacency matrix EkThe comprehensive space adjacent matrix of the road network is
Figure FDA0002300271450000029
Converting the spatial adjacency matrix into a spatial weight matrix by means of row normalization, i.e.
Figure FDA00023002714500000210
Thus, a subject with N spatial elements has a spatial weight matrix expressed as follows:
Figure FDA00023002714500000211
4. the method for estimating and predicting the short-term traffic operation state of the urban road network according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the implementation method of the step (5) comprises the following steps:
the correlation of two objects on a time sequence can be measured through a Pearson correlation function, meanwhile, the influence of a spatial relation is considered, and a spatial factor is introduced by utilizing the road section average speed obtained in the step (3)
Figure FDA0002300271450000031
As a comprehensive speed for quantifying the adjacent links, the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0002300271450000032
wherein:
Figure FDA0002300271450000033
representing the traffic speed, w, of the section i at time tijFor the weight adjacent to the road sections i and j, i ∈ [1, R]R is the number of road segments, T ∈ [1, T]T is the length of the statistical time period, T time interval;
the speed correlation of the road section i and its adjacent road sections is shown as follows:
Figure FDA0002300271450000034
wherein
Figure FDA0002300271450000035
Is the traffic speed of the road section i in the statistical time period T
Figure FDA0002300271450000036
Is determined by the average value of (a) of (b),
Figure FDA0002300271450000037
integrated speed
Figure FDA0002300271450000038
S represents a time delay.
5. The method for estimating and predicting the short-term traffic operation state of the urban road network according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the implementation method of the step (6) comprises the following steps:
the TOPSIS method is adopted to realize the identification of the fragile road section, and the calculation steps are as follows:
① define Positive Ideal solution A+And negative ideal scheme A-
A+(s)={maxCori(s)|s∈(1,2,...,S),1≤i≤R} (14)
A-(s)={minCori(s)|s∈(1,2,...,S),1≤i≤R} (15)
Wherein A is+(s) and A-(s) are positive and negative ideal schemes, respectively; r is the number of road sections in the road network, and S is a value set of time delay S;
② calculating the weight at each time delay
Considering that traffic conditions are more similar in close time intervals, the weights at different time delays are calculated from the euclidean distance as follows:
Figure FDA0002300271450000039
since greater weight is assigned to more similar traffic states, it is translated as follows:
Figure FDA00023002714500000310
wherein max (ed) and min (ed) are the maximum and minimum values, respectively, in the Euclidean distance set;
③ calculating distance
And calculating the distance between the space-time correlation of each path segment and the positive and negative ideal schemes, and taking the Euclidean weighted distance to calculate the following formula:
Figure FDA0002300271450000041
Figure FDA0002300271450000042
wherein:
Figure FDA0002300271450000043
and
Figure FDA0002300271450000044
the weighted distances of the road section i and the positive and negative ideal schemes respectively, and other variables are defined as (14) - (15);
④ calculating similarity
Calculating the similarity between the road section i and the adjacent road sections thereof and the ideal scheme under the condition of all time delay so as to measure the influence degree between the traffic states of each road section and the adjacent road sections thereof; the calculation formula is as follows:
Figure FDA0002300271450000045
wherein C isiThe similarity of the road section i and the ideal scheme, namely the importance degree of the road section; ci1 represents that the space-time correlation of the road section i is the best case, the influence degree is the greatest, and vice versa; as defined for other variables and equations (18) - (19);
⑤ according to CiSequencing road section influence degrees and extracting fragile road sections
First according to C of each road sectioniThe values are sorted, partial road sections are obtained based on the extraction proportion α, the partial road sections are regarded as weak road sections, and the traffic state of the whole road network is estimated and predicted by using the traffic characteristics of the weak road sections.
6. The method for estimating and predicting the short-term traffic operation state of the urban road network according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the implementation method of the step (7) comprises the following steps:
generating input data, namely a space-time characteristic matrix of the urban road network, and an N-D characteristic matrix, wherein the N-D characteristic matrix describes the change of speed on a road along with time; the time-space matrix is generally expressed as follows:
Figure FDA0002300271450000046
where N is the number of weak segments, D is the number of time delays, xitThe average traffic speed of the road section i at the time t is the average speed of the road section i according to the fused traffic state in the step (3);
7. the method for estimating and predicting the short-term traffic operation state of the urban road network according to claim 1, wherein the method comprises the following steps: the implementation method of the step (8) comprises the following steps:
training a Bi-ConvLSTM model by using the urban traffic speed tensor data generated in the step (7); similar to general LSTM, in the Bi-ConvLSTM model, x is input1,...,xtCell output C1,...,CtHidden state h1,...,htAre all 3D tensors; each cell comprises three parts, namely input gates itForgetting door ftOutput gate ot(ii) a The Bi-ConvLSTM model determines the future state of a certain cell by the inputs of its local neighbors and the past state; the formula for the ConvLSTM model is as follows:
Figure FDA0002300271450000051
wherein it,ft,Ct,ot,htRespectively showing an input gate, a forgetting gate, a cell state updating gate, an output gate and a hidden state; sigma and tanh respectively represent activation functions of a sigmoid function and a hyperbolic tangent function; a and
Figure FDA0002300271450000052
respectively representing a convolution operator and a Hadamard product; w and b represent the respective weight matrix and bias;
in Bi-ConvLSTM, the result sequence is output in the forward direction
Figure FDA0002300271450000053
Is to use the forward input sequence to iterate calculation from time T-n to T-1 and output the result sequence reversely
Figure FDA0002300271450000054
Is iteratively computed from time T-n to T-1 using an inverse input sequence, eventually an output result vector in which the results for each element are fused by the following formula:
Figure FDA0002300271450000055
wherein sigmagThe function is used to fuse the two result vectors output in the forward and reverse directions.
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