CN115019507B - Urban road network travel time reliability real-time estimation method - Google Patents
Urban road network travel time reliability real-time estimation method Download PDFInfo
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- G—PHYSICS
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- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
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- G—PHYSICS
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- G—PHYSICS
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- G08G1/00—Traffic control systems for road vehicles
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Abstract
The application discloses a real-time estimation method for the travel time reliability of an urban road network, which comprises the following steps: acquiring section traffic detection data in real time, and calculating delay time and travel time of each road section; calculating the delay travel time ratio of the whole road section according to the delay time and the travel time of each road section; setting a delay travel time ratio threshold according to city scale, road network structure, peak time period or investigation; and calculating the travel time reliability according to the delay travel time ratio threshold value. The application provides a delay travel time ratio threshold value determining method based on traffic section detection data and a real-time estimating method of a set of vehicle delay travel time ratio probability distribution expectation and variance, which reduces constraint conditions of data quantity and data types, is more suitable for urban road networks and has wider application range; the influence of intersection signal control in the urban road network on the road network reliability estimation is considered, and the accuracy of the road network reliability estimation is improved.
Description
Technical Field
The application relates to the technical field of traffic management, in particular to a real-time estimation method for the travel time reliability of an urban road network.
Background
Traffic networks are key systems for steady operation in extra large cities. However, urban traffic networks are often affected by periodic or random disturbances, resulting in traffic problems such as blocked supply chains, increased individual travel costs, and the like. Traffic network reliability is defined as the probability of a traffic network providing a satisfactory level of service under random disturbances as a probabilistic representation of system risk. The travel time reliability is an important index for measuring the reliability of the road network, and can be expressed by the travel time distribution of the vehicle. The travel time reliability of the traffic network is estimated in real time, and the dynamic control and management optimization of the traffic network can be supported, so that the service level of the urban traffic network is further improved.
The measurement of the travel time reliability is mainly divided into two types, namely a mathematical analysis method and a statistical measurement method: the mathematical analysis method is based on the traffic distribution model calculation such as user balance and the like to obtain a result; the statistical measurement rule quantifies reliability by measuring the average value and standard deviation of the road network travel time. The establishment of the mathematical analysis method considers the influence of a random traffic process, traffic demand change, a signal control scheme and the like, has wide applicability, but has complex modeling process and difficult parameter calibration. In recent years, the hardware facilities for collecting traffic data are continuously perfected, so that increasingly abundant traffic detection data are enabled to estimate the reliability of the journey time, and a statistical measurement method is newly developed.
The method can solve some problems existing in the reliability estimation of the current travel time based on the traffic detection technology, such as increasing OD data signals to control data input to improve the reliability estimation precision, simplifying a road network model to improve the reliability estimation calculation efficiency and the like. However, the existing statistical measurement method research still mostly adopts traffic history data as input conditions, and the real-time traffic data cannot be well utilized to analyze the dynamic change of the travel time reliability. Therefore, a method for estimating the travel time reliability in real time is found, and the method has important significance and value for supporting dynamic road network control and management.
The highway travel time reliability calculation method (CN 106960572B) is based on highway traffic data detection, and the travel time reliability of the highway is monitored, issued, induced and controlled by collecting, processing and issuing various information, so that the travel time reliability of the highway is improved. Although the method can also estimate the travel time reliability of the traffic network in real time, the following disadvantages exist:
(1) The application scene is a highway, the applied data detection means are a radar detector and a bayonet detector, and the detection means are not completely applied to the urban road network, and the detection equipment of the urban road network equipment is not fully covered;
(2) The influence of intersection signal control in the urban road network on the road network reliability estimation is not considered, and the accuracy of the road network reliability estimation is greatly influenced.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the problems existing in the prior art, the application provides a real-time estimation method for the travel time reliability of an urban road network, which utilizes a section traffic detector to estimate the travel time reliability of a traffic network in real time.
The technical scheme of the application is as follows:
the real-time estimation method for the travel time reliability of the urban road network comprises the following steps:
s1, defining all road sections as a set U, wherein the set U comprises n road sections; acquiring data of a section traffic detector in real time to obtain traffic x of a road section u u Wherein: u=a, b, c … n; u is U;
s2, calculating delay time d of road section u u (x u ) And travel time t u (x u )；
S3, repeatedly executing the step S2 until the delay time and the travel time of each road section in the set U are calculated;
s4, calculating the delay travel time ratio of all road sections:
s5, the delay travel time ratio obeys normal distribution X-N (mu, sigma) 2 ) The expected value mu of the normal distribution is the delay travel time ratio of the step S4; calculating variance sigma of delay travel time ratio 2 ；
S6, selecting a delay travel time ratio probability distribution percentile omega according to the city scale, the road network structure, the peak period or the investigation, and calculating a delay travel time ratio threshold pc according to the delay travel time ratio probability distribution percentile omega 0 The method comprises the following steps:
due to the total X-N (mu, sigma) 2 ) For the total X and a given ω (0 < ω.ltoreq.1), if X is present ω Make P { X ≡x ≡ ω } = ω, then pc 0 ＝x ω ；
S7, according to the delay travel time ratio threshold pc 0 Calculating travel time reliability of the road network during dt:
wherein: r represents the reliability of the travel time of the road network, P represents the probability that the delay travel time ratio of all vehicles in the road network is smaller than a reliability threshold value, x represents the delay travel time ratio, mu represents the expected value of the delay travel time ratio, sigma 2 Representing the variance of the delay travel time ratio.
Further, in step S2, the travel time t u (x u ) The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
delay time d u (x u ) The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
wherein:representing the free travel time, x, of road segment u u Representing traffic volume of road section u, C u Representing the traffic capacity of road section u, alpha and beta are given parameters.
Further, in step S5, the variance sigma of the delay stroke time ratio is calculated 2 The steps of (a) are as follows:
s51, calculating the total travel time TTS and the total travel distance TTD of the vehicle according to the section traffic detection data; the total travel time TTS of the vehicles refers to the total travel time of all the vehicles in the road network, and the total travel distance TTD of the vehicles refers to the total travel distance of all the vehicles in a certain time;
s52, calculating the variance sigma of the delay travel time ratio according to the total travel time TTS of the vehicle and the total travel distance TTD of the vehicle 2 。
Further, in step S51, the calculation formula of the total travel time TTS of the vehicle is as follows:
the calculation formula of the total travel distance TTD of the vehicle is as follows:
wherein: t represents the total time range of reliability analysis, which is the sum of all time windows;representing the total number of vehicles driving on road segment a during dt; />Representing the flow of segment a during dt; l (L) a Representing the length of road segment a.
Further, step S52 is performed to obtain the variance sigma of the delay stroke time ratio 2 The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
where δ is the adjustment coefficient.
The principle of the application is as follows:
the traveler wishes to arrive at the destination at the desired time, and reducing the travel time fluctuation of the traveler provides a higher benefit to the traveler than reducing the desired travel time of the traveler. The travel time of the traveler mainly comprises free-flowing travel time and delay, and delay fluctuation can cause obvious change of the travel time of the traveler. The application defines that the traveler finishes the purpose of one-time traveling, and when the ratio of delay and travel time is less than or equal to a certain given value, the traveler travels reliably; when the ratio of the delay and the travel time is larger than a given value, the travel of the traveler is unreliable.
System reliability refers to the ability (or probability) of a system to perform a specified function within a predetermined time. For a real-time road network system, a cumulative probability distribution curve of delay and travel time ratios can be obtained according to the ratio of delay to travel time (delay travel time ratio) of all vehicles leaving an open network in any time window.
At a given delay travel time ratio threshold pc 0 In the case of (2), the probability of the travel of the vehicle from the open network being reliable in the time zone can be calculated, and this index can be used as the travel time reliability of the road network in the time zone, as shown in the formula (1):
wherein: r represents the reliability of the travel time of the road network, F represents the probability of one travel reliability of all vehicles in the road network, P represents the probability that the delay travel time ratio of all vehicles in the road network is smaller than a reliability threshold value, N represents the number of vehicles with reliable travel in the total number of vehicles leaving the road network in t time, and N represents the total number of vehicles leaving the road network in a certain time.
Formula (1): the trip time reliability is numerically equal to the probability that the delay trip time ratio for all vehicles in the road network as a whole is less than a threshold. The larger the quantification index of the travel time reliability is, the larger the probability that the actual travel time is smaller than or equal to the expected travel time is, the smaller the fluctuation of the travel time of the vehicles in the road network is, and the higher the service level of the road network is. Wherein the delay travel time is greater than a threshold pc 0 And determining according to the distribution characteristics of the ratio of the vehicle delay to the travel time in the road network. In the formula (1), the larger R (T), the higher the vehicle number ratio of reliable travel in the road network, and the more reliable the road network.
Since the delay travel time ratio obeys a normal distribution: d/t=x to N (μ, σ) 2 ) The travel time reliability of the road network during dt is:
in estimating the travel time reliability, it is first necessary to determine a delay travel time ratio threshold for the road network. Delay travel time to threshold reference delay travel time to percentile determination of probability distribution:
due to the total X-N (mu, sigma) 2 ) For the total X and a given ω (0 < ω.ltoreq.1), if X is present ω Make P { X ≡x ≡ ω } = ω, then pc 0 ＝x ω . Wherein ω should be selected according to city scale, road network structure, peak period, etc., or according to investigation.
There is a correlation between the expected value of the delay travel time ratio and the density of the road network vehicles. The application refers to a basic function for researching road section impedance, namely a BPR function (Bureau of Public Roads, BPR) of the United states public road bureau, for the travel time analysis of the road section, and the specific form is as follows:
within the same dt, the delay of segment a is:
dividing the formula (4) by the formula (3) to obtain the delay travel time ratio of the vehicle on the road section a, so that the delay travel time ratio of the whole road network u is within a certain time period:
u＝a,b,c…n；u∈U
assuming that the traffic flow in the road network u is certain during the period dt, calculating the delay travel time of the road network vehicle according to the formula (5) in real time to obtain an expected value mu.
The estimation of the delay travel time ratio variance of the road network vehicle is an important point and a difficult point of the application. The total travel distance of the vehicles in the road network and the total number of vehicles have a fixed relation when the saturation of each road section in the road network is uniform (namely a normal curve, as shown by a solid line in fig. 1). According to the relation between the total running distance of the vehicles and the total number of the vehicles, road network traffic flows can be divided into three states: free flow, critical flow, crowded flow. Matching the road network traffic flow state with the road network reliability degree, wherein the corresponding relation is as follows: free flow-ideal, critical flow-reliable, crowded flow-less reliable.
When the road network is affected by an emergency such as a traffic accident, the point formed by the total travel distance of the vehicle and the total number of vehicles is below the normal curve (as shown by the broken line below fig. 1). The present application assumes that: when the road network vehicle density is unchanged and the expectations are unchanged, the more the scattered points deviate upwards, the larger the total running distance of the vehicle is, the higher the reliability of the road network is, and the smaller the variance is; the lower the scatter point is deviated, the lower the reliability of the road network is, the larger the variance is, and the variance estimation method is established according to the variance.
Based on the section traffic detection data, the estimation of the actual relation point positions at all times can be realized by the normal curve of the total running distance and the total number of vehicles in the road network. The real-Time estimation method of the Total travel distance of the vehicle (the Total distance the vehicle travels in a certain Time, total Travel Distance, i.e., TTD) and the Total travel Time of the vehicle (the Total Time the vehicle travels in the road network, i.e., TTS) is as follows:
the application constructs the variance sigma of the linear model estimated delay travel time ratio 2 The real-time estimation method is shown as follows:
the beneficial technical effects of the application are as follows:
(1) The method for determining the delay travel time ratio threshold based on the traffic section detection data and the method for estimating the expected and variance of the probability distribution of the delay travel time ratio of a set of vehicles in real time are provided, so that the constraint conditions of data quantity and data variety are reduced;
(2) Different from the fact that the vehicle track data has low data permeability in small cities, the layout coverage of the section traffic detectors is wide, and the section traffic detectors have certain applicability in large cities and counties, so that the application range of the section traffic detectors is wider;
(3) The influence of intersection signal control in the urban road network on the road network reliability estimation is considered, and the accuracy of the road network reliability estimation is improved.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a graph of a vehicle total distance to drive TTD versus a vehicle total time to drive TTS;
FIG. 2 is a microscopic simulated road network of an embodiment;
FIG. 3 is a truth trend chart of travel time reliability at different delay travel time versus threshold values;
FIG. 4 is a graph comparing true and estimated values of travel time reliability at 60s signal period;
FIG. 5 is a graph comparing true and estimated values of travel time reliability for a signal period of 90 s;
FIG. 6 is a graph comparing the true value and the estimated value of the travel time reliability at a signal period of 120 s.
Detailed Description
The present application will be described in detail below with reference to the drawings and examples. It will be apparent that the described embodiments are only some, but not all, embodiments of the application. All other embodiments, which can be made by those skilled in the art based on the embodiments of the application without making any inventive effort, are intended to be within the scope of the application.
An example is a 3 x 3 standard square micro-simulation road network, as shown in fig. 2. And each entrance road inputs the same fixed flow and ensures the balanced distribution of the traffic flow of the road network through a traffic distribution model. Because the signal period can influence the running efficiency and the reliability of the traffic network, three scenes of 60s, 90s and 120s of the signal period of each intersection are selected, and the estimated value and the true value of the travel time reliability are calculated.
1. Calculating an estimate of travel time reliability
The application is adopted to calculate the estimated value of the travel time reliability, and the steps are as follows:
s1, defining all road sections as a set U, wherein the set U comprises n road sections; acquiring data of a section traffic detector in real time to obtain traffic x of a road section u u Wherein: u=a, b, c … n; u e U.
S2, calculating delay time d of road section u u (x u ) And travel time t u (x u ). Travel time t u (x u ) The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
delay time d u (x u ) The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
wherein:representing the free travel time, x, of road segment u u Representing traffic volume of road section u, C u Representing the traffic capacity of road section u, alpha and beta are given parameters.
And S3, repeatedly executing the step S2 until the delay time and the travel time of each road section in the set U are calculated.
S4, calculating the delay travel time ratio of all road sections:
s5, the delay travel time ratio obeys normal distribution X-N (mu, sigma) 2 ) The expected value μ of the normal distribution is the delay travel time ratio of step S4. Calculating variance sigma of delay travel time ratio 2 The method comprises the following specific steps:
s51, calculating the total travel time TTS and the total travel distance TTD of the vehicle according to the section traffic detection data. The total travel time TTS of the vehicles refers to the total travel time of all the vehicles in the road network, and the total travel distance TTD of the vehicles refers to the total travel distance of all the vehicles in a certain time.
The calculation formula of the total travel time TTS of the vehicle is as follows:
the calculation formula of the total travel distance TTD of the vehicle is as follows:
wherein: t represents the total time range of reliability analysis, which is the sum of all time windows;representing the total number of vehicles driving on road segment a during dt; />Representing the flow of segment a during dt; l (L) a Representing the length of road segment a.
S52, calculating the variance sigma of the delay travel time ratio according to the total travel time TTS of the vehicle and the total travel distance TTD of the vehicle 2 ：
Where δ is the adjustment coefficient.
S6, selecting a delay travel time ratio probability distribution percentile omega according to the city scale, the road network structure, the peak period or the investigation, and calculating a delay travel time ratio threshold pc according to the delay travel time ratio probability distribution percentile omega 0 The method comprises the following steps:
due to the total X-N (mu, sigma) 2 ) For the total X and a given ω (0 < ω.ltoreq.1), if X is present ω Make P { X ≡x ≡ ω } = ω, then pc 0 ＝x ω 。
In order to determine a delay travel time ratio threshold in the simulation calculation example, the application analyzes the distribution condition of the delay travel time ratio of the vehicle in the road network based on the simulation data and sets the delay travel time ratio threshold of the road network. The percentage of the delay travel time of the vehicle in the road network to the probability distribution is shown in table 1.
Table 1 vehicle delay travel time to probability distribution percentile in a road network
FIG. 3 is a truth trend chart of travel time reliability of a road network at different delay travel time ratios thresholds. It can be seen that the trend of variation in the travel time reliability is consistent with different delay travel time ratios; the travel time reliability of the area encircled by the solid line frame drops rapidly, reflecting that the travel time reliability will drop rapidly when the total travel distance of the vehicle is in a certain range. As can be seen from the above analysis, the delay travel time ratio threshold corresponding to 75% quantiles can reflect the overall variation trend of the travel time reliability, so that the embodiment selects the delay travel time ratio corresponding to 75% quantiles, namely pc 0 = 0.6899 as a delay travel time ratio threshold for a road network.
S7, according to the delay travel time ratio threshold pc 0 Calculate travel time reliability of road network during dt= 0.6899:
wherein: r represents the reliability of the travel time of the road network, P represents the probability that the delay travel time ratio of all vehicles in the road network is smaller than a reliability threshold value, x represents the delay travel time ratio, mu represents the expected value of the delay travel time ratio, sigma 2 Representing the variance of the delay travel time ratio.
The estimated value of the final stroke time reliability is shown as solid points in fig. 4 to 6.
2. Calculating true values for travel time reliability
According to the travel time and delay data of the vehicles leaving the road network in each time window in the simulated vehicle data, the true value of the reliability of the travel time can be calculated through the formula of the step S7, and the result is shown as open dots in fig. 4-6.
3. Comparison of estimated and true values
As can be seen from fig. 4 to 6:
(1) FIG. 4 shows that, at the initial stage of TTS increase, the road network traffic flow is in a free flow state, and the estimated value and the true value of the travel time reliability are consistent and are 1; when the TTS is larger than a certain value, the traffic flow state of the road network gradually approaches to the critical flow, the congestion phenomenon of the vehicle starts to appear, the estimated value and the true value both start to decrease, the overall change trend is consistent, but the estimated value is larger than the true value, and the region with larger error is concentrated in the region A; when TTS continues to increase, road network traffic flow gradually reaches a congestion state, at the moment, road network vehicles are greatly delayed due to a congestion phenomenon, and the reliability of travel time is rapidly reduced, which indicates that the travel of the road network vehicles is unreliable at the moment, the delay travel time ratio is too high, and the delay travel time ratio threshold value is exceeded.
(2) Fig. 5 shows that although the estimated value of the travel time reliability and the true value change trend are consistent, the estimated value is slightly smaller than the true value, and the error larger area is concentrated in the B area.
(3) Fig. 6 is a graph showing that the phenomenon of smaller estimation values is more obvious, and the region with larger error is concentrated in the region C.
In summary, A, B, C indicates that the estimation method of the present application has an error when the road network is close to the saturation state. Error analysis is carried out on the true value and the estimated value of the travel time reliability, the simulation time length is 180 minutes each time, the statistical time window is 60 seconds each time, five different random seeds are taken for each experiment, the average value is taken, and the error analysis results are shown in the following table 2.
TABLE 2 error analysis results of true and estimated values of travel time reliability
As can be seen from the analysis results, the average absolute errors of the estimation method in the research are 0.0568, 0.0617 and 0.0759 respectively when the road network signal period is 60s, 90s and 120s respectively, and the relative error is less than 10%, so that the estimation method can be applied to engineering practice.
Although the embodiments of the present application have been disclosed in the foregoing description and drawings, it is not limited to the details of the embodiments and examples, but is to be applied to all the fields of application of the present application, it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various changes, modifications, substitutions and alterations can be made therein without departing from the spirit and scope of the application as defined by the appended claims and their equivalents.
Claims (1)
1. The real-time estimation method for the travel time reliability of the urban road network is characterized by comprising the following steps of:
s1, defining all road sections as a set U, wherein the set U comprises n road sections; acquiring data of a section traffic detector in real time to obtain traffic x of a road section u u Wherein: u=a, b, c … n; u is U;
s2, calculating delay time d of road section u u (x u ) And travel time t u (x u )；
Travel time t u (x u ) The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
delay time d u (x u ) The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
wherein:representing the free travel time, x, of road segment u u Representing traffic volume of road section u, C u Representing the traffic capacity of a road section u, wherein alpha and beta are given parameters;
s3, repeatedly executing the step S2 until the delay time and the travel time of each road section in the set U are calculated;
s4, calculating the delay travel time ratio of all road sections:
s5, the delay travel time ratio obeys normal distribution X-N (mu, sigma) 2 ) The expected value mu of the normal distribution is the delay travel time ratio of the step S4; calculating variance sigma of delay travel time ratio 2 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Calculating variance sigma of delay travel time ratio 2 The steps of (a) are as follows:
s51, calculating the total travel time TTS and the total travel distance TTD of the vehicle according to the section traffic detection data; the total travel time TTS of the vehicles refers to the total travel time of all the vehicles in the road network, and the total travel distance TTD of the vehicles refers to the total travel distance of all the vehicles in a certain time;
the calculation formula of the total travel time TTS of the vehicle is as follows:
the calculation formula of the total travel distance TTD of the vehicle is as follows:
wherein: t represents the total time range of reliability analysis, which is the sum of all time windows;representing the total number of vehicles driving on road segment a during dt; />Representing the flow of segment a during dt; l (L) a Representing the length of road segment a;
s52, calculating the variance sigma of the delay travel time ratio according to the total travel time TTS of the vehicle and the total travel distance TTD of the vehicle 2 The method comprises the steps of carrying out a first treatment on the surface of the Variance sigma of delay stroke time ratio 2 The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
wherein delta is an adjustment coefficient;
s6, selecting a delay travel time ratio probability distribution percentile omega according to the city scale, the road network structure, the peak period or the investigation, and calculating a delay travel time ratio threshold pc according to the delay travel time ratio probability distribution percentile omega 0 The method comprises the following steps:
due to the total X-N (mu, sigma) 2 ) For the total X and a given ω (0 < ω.ltoreq.1), if X is present ω Make P { X ≡x ≡ ω } = ω, then pc 0 ＝x ω ；
S7, according to the delay travel time ratio threshold pc 0 Calculating travel time reliability of the road network during dt:
wherein: r represents the reliability of the travel time of the road network, P represents the probability that the delay travel time ratio of all vehicles in the road network is smaller than a reliability threshold value, x represents the delay travel time ratio, mu represents the expected value of the delay travel time ratio, sigma 2 Representing the variance of the delay travel time ratio.
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