CN111382392B - Method for calculating total time of fault handling of power distribution network and method for calculating reliability of total time - Google Patents
Method for calculating total time of fault handling of power distribution network and method for calculating reliability of total time Download PDFInfo
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method for calculating the total time of fault handling of a power distribution network, which comprises the steps of reading power grid data information of the power distribution network; establishing a power distribution network terminal failure probability model; determining the type of the failure of the power distribution network terminal; establishing a basic calculation model of the total fault processing time of the power distribution network; correcting the basic calculation model of the total fault processing time of the power distribution network to obtain an accurate calculation model of the total fault processing time of the power distribution network; and calculating to obtain the final total fault processing time of the power distribution network. The invention also discloses a reliability calculation method comprising the power distribution network fault processing total time calculation method. According to the method, the total fault processing time of the power distribution network is accurately calculated by establishing an accurate calculation model and an accurate correction model, so that the reliability of the power distribution network is accurately calculated; therefore, the method has the advantages of high reliability, good practicability, higher precision and wide applicability.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the field of electrical automation, and particularly relates to a method for calculating total fault handling time of a power distribution network and a method for calculating reliability of the power distribution network.
Background
With the development of economic technology and the improvement of living standard of people, electric energy becomes essential secondary energy in production and life of people, and brings endless convenience to production and life of people.
Distribution Terminal (DTU) is distribution automation's basic equipment, can monitor distribution lines's operating condition, in time discovers the circuit trouble, diagnoses trouble district section and with trouble district section isolation, resumes the power supply to non-trouble district section, can show the distribution network power supply reliability level that promotes. At present, research on a power distribution terminal can be roughly divided into two types, one type is developed for the problem of optimal configuration of the power distribution terminal, and the other type is developed for the influence of the power distribution terminal on the power supply reliability of a power distribution network. In the two types of researches on the power distribution terminal, a reliability model of the power distribution terminal needs to be established, and meanwhile, the power distribution terminal is the same as other power equipment, so that the condition that the power distribution terminal fails in the operation process is inevitable, and the power supply reliability of the whole system is influenced.
The total fault processing time of the power distribution network refers to the total time consumed from the occurrence of a fault to the completion of processing when the power distribution network fails. The total fault processing time of the power distribution network is one of important parameters of the power distribution network, and directly influences the reliability calculation result of the power distribution network. Therefore, the calculation of the total time for fault handling of the distribution network is very important.
However, in the current calculation of the total fault handling time of the power distribution network, the calculation process is simple and rough, so that the accuracy of the calculation result of the total fault handling time of the power distribution network is poor, and the reliability calculation result of the power distribution network is seriously influenced.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to provide a method for calculating the total time of fault handling of a power distribution network, which has high reliability, good practicability and higher precision.
The invention also aims to provide a reliability calculation method comprising the method for calculating the total fault handling time of the power distribution network.
The invention provides a method for calculating the total time of fault handling of a power distribution network, which comprises the following steps:
s1, reading power grid data information of a power distribution network;
s2, establishing a power distribution network terminal failure probability model according to the power grid data information acquired in the step S1;
s3, determining the type of failure of the power distribution network terminal;
s4, establishing a basic calculation model of the total fault processing time of the power distribution network;
s5, correcting the basic calculation model of the total time of the power distribution network fault treatment established in the step S4, so as to obtain an accurate calculation model of the total time of the power distribution network fault treatment;
and S6, calculating to obtain the final total fault processing time of the power distribution network according to the accurate calculation model of the total fault processing time of the power distribution network obtained in the step S5.
The power grid data information of the power distribution network in the step S1 specifically includes the length of a power supply main line, the length of a power supply branch line, average repair time corresponding to a fault rate, operation time of an isolating switch, load quantity of each load point, and the number of power supply users of each load point.
Step S2, establishing a power distribution network terminal failure probability model, specifically adopting the following steps to establish the model:
A. the following formula is adopted to establish a telemetering usability degree model Q 1 ：
Q 1 ＝Q sen Q tra Q dat
In the formula Q sen Is sensor availability; q tra Is the transmission device availability; q dat Data processing device availability;
B. the following formula is adopted to establish a remote signaling availability model Q 2 ：
Q 2 ＝Q mas Q sub Q com
In the formula Q mas Is the master station availability; q sub Is the substation availability; q com Availability for the communication network;
C. the following formula is adopted to establish a remote control availability model Q 3 ：
Q 3 ＝(1-P ref )(1-P mal )
In the formula P ref Is the remote control rejection rate; p mal The false rate of remote control;
D. the following rules are adopted to establish a power distribution network terminal failure probability model:
if the failure condition is: the remote measurement, remote signaling and remote control are normal; the consequences of failure at this time are: the automatic positioning is successful, and the automatic isolation is successful; the failure probability model at this time is: p is 0 ＝Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 ；
If the failure condition is: telemetry failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: automatic positioning fails, and automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p is 1 ＝1-Q 1 ；
If the failure condition is: a remote signaling failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: the automatic positioning is successful, and the automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 2 ＝1-Q 2 ；
If the failure condition is: remote control fails; the consequences of failure at this time are: the automatic positioning is successful, and the automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p is 3 ＝1-Q 3 ；
If the failure condition is: telemetry failure and remote control failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: automatic positioning fails, and automatic isolation fails; failure probability model at this timeComprises the following steps: p 4 ＝(1-Q 1 )(1-Q 3 )；
If the failure condition is: telemetry failure and telemetry failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: automatic positioning fails, and automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 5 ＝(1-Q 1 )(1-Q 2 )；
If the failure condition is: remote signaling failure and remote control failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: the automatic positioning is successful, and the automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 6 ＝(1-Q 2 )(1-Q 3 )；
If the failure condition is: remote signaling failure, remote sensing failure and remote control failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: automatic positioning fails, and automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 7 ＝(1-Q 1 )(1-Q 2 )(1-Q 3 )。
S4, establishing a basic calculation model of the total time of the fault handling of the power distribution network, specifically, adopting the following formula as the basic calculation model T of the total time of the fault handling of the power distribution network f ：
T f ＝T loc-r +T iso-r +T pat-exp +T rec
In the formula T loc-r Time is located for the fault; t is iso-r Isolating time for a fault; t is pat-exp Expected value of fault line patrol time; t is rec Time to failure recovery.
The expected value of the fault line patrol time is specifically calculated by adopting the following formula:
k is the sectional number of the fault feeder line; n is the total number of the sections of the fault feeder line; Δ L k The length of the k section of the fault feeder line; l is the length of the fault feeder line; t is t p The feeder line inspection time is unit length; and the failure rate of each feeder per unit length is specified to be the same.
a. the corrected fault positioning time T is calculated by adopting the following formula loc-exp ：
T loc-exp ＝(1-P loc-f )×T loc-f +P loc-f ×T loc-f
In the formula T loc-f Automatically positioning the positioning time after failure; p is loc-f Representing the probability of failure of the positioning function;
b. the corrected fault isolation time T is calculated by the following formula iso-exp ：
T iso-exp ＝(1-P iso-f )×T iso-f +P iso-f ×T iso-f
In the formula T iso-f The time for automatic isolation after failure; p iso-f Is the probability of failure of the isolation function;
c. the corrected failure recovery time T is calculated by rec-exp ：
In the formula T ter Is the recovery time of the power distribution terminal failure, and
T rec a time to recover for an uncorrected failure;
d. the following formula is adopted as an accurate calculation model of the total time of the fault treatment of the power distribution network: t is f-exp ＝T loc-exp +T iso-exp +T pat-exp +T rec-exp 。
The invention also provides a reliability calculation method comprising the power distribution network fault processing total time calculation method, which comprises the following steps:
and S7, calculating to obtain a final calculation result of the reliability of the power distribution network considering the failure of the power distribution terminal according to the total time of the power distribution network fault processing calculated in the step S6.
And calculating to obtain a final power distribution network reliability calculation result considering the failure of the power distribution terminal according to the total power distribution network fault processing time calculated in the step S6, specifically, calculating to obtain a final power distribution network reliability calculation result considering the failure of the power distribution terminal by adopting a fault consequence analysis method.
According to the method for calculating the total time of fault handling of the power distribution network and the method for calculating the reliability of the power distribution network, the total time of fault handling of the power distribution network is accurately calculated by establishing an accurate calculation model and a correction model, and the reliability of the power distribution network is accurately calculated; therefore, the method has the advantages of high reliability, good practicability, higher precision and wide applicability.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for calculating total time for fault handling of a power distribution network according to the present invention.
Fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of a differential model of a feeder line according to the present invention.
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of the coupling relationship between remote sensing, remote signaling and remote control failures of the present invention.
FIG. 4 is a schematic diagram of an IEEE RBTS BUS2 exemplary system of the present invention.
Fig. 5 is a schematic diagram of the variation curve of ASAI in case of single function failure according to the present invention.
FIG. 6 is a graph showing the variation of ENS in the event of a single functional failure in accordance with the present invention.
FIG. 7 is a diagram illustrating the variation curve of ASAI when multiple functions are disabled according to the present invention.
FIG. 8 is a graph illustrating the variation of ENS in the event of multiple functional failures according to the present invention.
FIG. 9 is a bathtub curve illustrating the failure rate of the power distribution terminal of the present invention.
FIG. 10 is a graph showing the ASAI variation with age according to the invention.
FIG. 11 is a graph showing the variation of ENS with age according to the present invention.
Fig. 12 is a flowchart illustrating a method of the reliability calculation method according to the present invention.
Detailed Description
Fig. 1 is a schematic flow chart of a method for calculating total time for processing a fault of a power distribution network according to the present invention: the invention provides a method for calculating the total time of fault processing of a power distribution network, which comprises the following steps:
s1, reading power grid data information of a power distribution network; the method specifically comprises the steps of measuring the length of a power supply main line, the length of a power supply branch line, average repair time corresponding to a fault rate, the operation time of an isolating switch, the load quantity of each load point, the number of power supply users of each load point and the like;
s2, establishing a power distribution network terminal failure probability model according to the power grid data information acquired in the step S1;
the fault automation processing process of the power distribution system comprises the following steps: when a fault occurs, firstly, the remote measuring function collects and calculates the running real-time parameters, the position and the type of the fault are judged, then the position signal of the corresponding switch is transmitted through the remote signaling function, and finally, the corresponding switch is operated through the remote control function, so that the automatic isolation and the automatic recovery of a fault area are realized;
if the events A, B and C are recorded as remote measurement, remote signaling and remote control failure, the events A, B and C meet the relationship shown in the figure 3 according to the coupling relationship of the events A, B and C in the fault automation processing process;
when a power distribution system breaks down, if a power distribution terminal fails to work due to some reason, the three sub-processes of fault positioning, fault isolation and fault recovery may change except that the fault line patrol process is not changed in the original fault processing process, and the time required by the corresponding process may also change. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate the reliability of the power distribution system to account for power distribution terminal failures how to build a time model for each sub-process.
For this reason, firstly, a probability model of the failure of the power distribution terminal is established, and the model can be established by adopting the following steps:
A. the following formula is adopted to establish a telemetering usability degree model Q 1 ：
Q 1 ＝Q sen Q tra Q dat
In the formula Q sen Is sensor availability; q tra Availability of transmission equipment; q dat Data processing device availability;
B. the following formula is adopted to establish a remote signaling availability model Q 2 ：
Q 2 ＝Q mas Q sub Q com
In the formula Q mas Is the master station availability; q sub Is the substation availability; q com Availability for a communication network;
C. the following formula is adopted to establish a remote control availability model Q 3 ：
Q 3 ＝(1-P ref )(1-P mal )
In the formula P ref Is the remote control rejection rate; p mal The false rate of remote control;
D. the following rules are adopted to establish a power distribution network terminal failure probability model:
if the failure condition is: the remote measurement, remote signaling and remote control are normal; the consequences of failure at this time are: the automatic positioning is successful, and the automatic isolation is successful; the failure probability model at this time is: p 0 ＝Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 ；
If the failure condition is: telemetry failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: automatic positioning fails, and automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 1 ＝1-Q 1 ；
If the failure condition is: remote signaling failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: the automatic positioning is successful, and the automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 2 ＝1-Q 2 ；
If the failure condition is: remote control fails; the consequences of failure at this time are: the automatic positioning is successful, and the automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 3 ＝1-Q 3 ；
If the failure condition is: telemetry failure and remote control failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: automatic positioning fails, and automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p is 4 ＝(1-Q 1 )(1-Q 3 )；
If the failure condition is: telemetry failure and telemetry failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: automatic positioning fails, and automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 5 ＝(1-Q 1 )(1-Q 2 )；
If the failure condition is as follows: remote signaling failure and remote control failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: the automatic positioning is successful, and the automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 6 ＝(1-Q 2 )(1-Q 3 )；
If the failure condition is: telemetry failure, telemetry failure and remote control failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: automatic positioning fails, and automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p is 7 ＝(1-Q 1 )(1-Q 2 )(1-Q 3 )；
S3, determining the type of failure of the power distribution network terminal;
s4, establishing a basic calculation model of the total fault processing time of the power distribution network; specifically, the following formula is adopted as a basic calculation model T of the total time of fault treatment of the power distribution network f ：
T f ＝T loc-r +T iso-r +T pat-exp +T rec
In the formula T loc-r Locating time for faults, specifically, telemetering, determining the fault position (which feeder line in the system can be determined, but the specific position of the fault on the feeder line cannot be determined) and the time required by the fault type of the system by adopting distribution automation software according to real-time parameters; t is a unit of iso-r The time required for fault isolation, specifically for remote control and field devices to realize the on and off operations of a switch, so as to realize fault isolation; t is pat-exp Expected value of fault line patrol time; t is rec The fault recovery time, specifically the time required from completion of fault isolation to complete restoration of power to the system, is only related to the type of fault, and thus can be expressed by the following equation: t is rec = f (x); in the formula, x represents the fault type and refers to which element in the system has any fault;
the expected value of the fault line patrol time is calculated by adopting the following formula:
k is the sectional number of the fault feeder line; n is the total number of the sections of the fault feeder line; Δ L k The length of the k section of the fault feeder line; l is the length of the fault feeder line; t is t p The feeder line inspection time is unit length; and the failure rate of each feeder line per unit length is specified to be the same;
the method for calculating the expected value of the fault line patrol time specifically comprises the following steps:
supposing that after a feeder line of a power distribution system is in fault, a certain feeder line with the fault in the system is determined through a fault positioning process, the length of the feeder line is set to be L, and the line patrol time of the feeder line with unit length is set to be t p And the fault rate of each feeder line per unit length is the same. A differential model of the feeder line is established by adopting a differential idea, and the feeder line is divided into N small sections equally, as shown in figure 2
According to the established feeder differential model, the fault line patrol time t in the feeder section is in direct proportion to the line patrol distance for finding the fault point from the head end of the fault feeder (or the tail end of the fault feeder without influencing the fault line patrol time), namely the fault line patrol time t is directly proportional to the line patrol distance
n k The number of sections from the head end of the fault feeder line to the section k;
so that the expected line-travelling time in the whole fault feeder section can be expressed as
S5, correcting the basic calculation model of the total time of the power distribution network fault treatment established in the step S4, so as to obtain an accurate calculation model of the total time of the power distribution network fault treatment; the method specifically comprises the following steps of correcting and obtaining an accurate calculation model:
a. the corrected fault positioning time T is calculated by the following formula loc-exp ：
T loc-exp ＝(1-P loc-f )×T loc-f +P loc-f ×T loc-f
In the formula T loc-f Automatically positioning the positioning time after failure; p loc-f Representing the probability of failure of the positioning function, and in actual calculation, P loc-f ＝P i ,i＝1,4,5,7；
b. The corrected fault isolation time T is calculated by the following formula iso-exp ：
T iso-exp ＝(1-P iso-f )×T iso-f +P iso-f ×T iso-f
In the formula T iso-f The isolation time after the automatic isolation failure; p iso-f To isolate the probability of functional failure, and in actual calculations, P iso-f ＝P j ,j＝1,2,3,4,5,6,7；
c. The corrected failure recovery time T is calculated by rec-exp ：
In the formula T ter Is the recovery time of the power distribution terminal failure, and
T rec a time to recover for an uncorrected failure;
d. the following formula is adopted as an accurate calculation model of the total time of the fault treatment of the power distribution network: t is a unit of f-exp ＝T loc-exp +T iso-exp +T pat-exp +T rec-exp ；
And S6, calculating to obtain the final total fault processing time of the power distribution network according to the accurate calculation model of the total fault processing time of the power distribution network obtained in the step S5.
The process of the invention is further illustrated below with reference to one example:
the test example chosen is the IEEE RBTS BUS2 system (shown in FIG. 4) which has "three remote" distribution terminals installed at both the feeder outlet switch and tie switch, and segmented switches installed at the 14 main line head ends, i.e., feeders {1,4,7, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 21, 24, 26, 29, 32, 34}, and "three remote" terminals installed on the switches. Data such as feeder fault rate, feeder length, number of load points, and number of users (see specifically Allan R N, billingon R, sjaref I, et al. A reliability test system for electronic purposes-basic distribution system data and results [ J]IEEE Transactions on Power Delivery,1991,6 (02): 813-820). And when the power distribution terminal is not installed, the fault processing time is 3h. In this example, when the power distribution terminal functions normally, the fault location time T is determined loc-r 0.017h is taken, and the fault isolation time T is iso-r Taking 0; locating time T after telemetry failure loc-f Taking 0.1h as the isolation time T after remote control failure iso-f Take 0.5h. Time to failure recovery T rec Take 0.2h. Telemetering function recovery time t of power distribution terminal 1 All take 0.15h, the recovery time t of remote signaling function 2 All take 0.2h, the recovery time t of the remote control function 3 All take 0.25h.
In the calculation example, the probability of failure of the power distribution terminal is set to be between [0,1], the universality of the method is verified, and the reliability of the power distribution system under different failure rates is analyzed. The calculation results are shown in fig. 5 to 8, when the failure probability of the power distribution terminal changes in [0,1], the corresponding reliability can be effectively calculated, and from another point of view, the method can be used for drawing the reliability curves of the power distribution terminal under different availability rates, and can be conveniently checked by related personnel in practice.
Fig. 5 and 6 show the influence of a single functional failure of the power distribution terminal on the reliability, and in the present embodiment, as the failure probability increases, the following is shown: 1) ASAI is continuously increased, ENS is continuously decreased; 2) Compared with remote signaling and remote control functions, the influence on the reliability index is small when the remote measurement function fails; 3) The 'inflection point' is caused by the fact that the repair time of remote control function failure is longer than that of remote measurement and remote signaling; 4) The curves when the remote signaling and remote control functions fail are parallel after the 'inflection point', because when the remote signaling function fails, the remote control cannot obtain the effective information (opening and closing state, position and the like) of the corresponding switch, so that the corresponding switch cannot be actuated, and the direct influence caused by the failure of the remote control function is the same as that caused by the failure of the remote control function.
Fig. 7 and 8 show the effect of simultaneous failure of multiple functions of the power distribution terminal on reliability, and show that: 1) ASAI continuously increases, ENS continuously decreases; 2) Compared with the conditions that the remote signaling function and the remote control function are simultaneously failed and the remote signaling function and the remote measuring function are simultaneously failed, the influence on the reliability is larger when the remote measuring function and the remote control function are simultaneously failed; 3) The figure contains "inflection points" in combinations where the remote control function fails, also because the repair time of the remote control function is longer than that of telemetry and telemetry; 4) The curve when the remote measurement and remote signaling function fails simultaneously is parallel to the curve when the remote measurement and remote control fail simultaneously after the inflection point, because when the remote measurement and remote signaling function fails simultaneously, the directly caused influence is consistent with that when the remote measurement and remote control function fails simultaneously, namely, the automatic positioning cannot be realized, and the automatic isolation cannot be realized.
Practice has proved that the failure rate of most equipment is a function related to time, a typical failure curve is called a bathtub curve, the service time of the equipment is used as an abscissa, the failure probability is used as an ordinate, the curve is shaped like a bathtub, and the characteristic of the curve is determined by a proportion parameter and a shape parameter. In this example, the fault rate of the power distribution terminal is set according to the bathtub curve, the proportional parameter is 8 (according to the actual situation of power distribution system dynamic construction, the service life of the power distribution terminal is generally 6-8 years, in the example, 8 years), and the shape parameters are 0.5,1 and 5 respectively, as shown in fig. 9. From the bathtub curve, the bathtub can be roughly divided into three sections: in the early stage (0-2 years) of equipment use, the failure rate is high, and the failure rate rapidly decreases along with the time; in the middle stage of use (2-5 years), the failure rate is very low and is kept stable; in the later period of use (6-8 years), the failure rate increases rapidly. By adopting the invention, the reliability of the IEEE RBTS BUS2 calculation system is calculated when the failure rate of the power distribution terminal (taking remote signaling failure as an example, and other conditions are similar) changes according to a bathtub curve, and an ENS curve and an ASAI curve are shown in fig. 10 and fig. 11. The graph shows that over time, the ASAI curve appears in a reverse tub shape, and the ENS curve still appears in a tub shape. Therefore, in practice, special attention should be paid to the maintenance and repair of the distribution terminal in the early and late stages of use, where the influence on the reliability of the distribution network is relatively large.
In addition, it is defined that no power distribution terminal is installed in the original power distribution system, at this time, one power distribution terminal is installed at any position, and the degree of improvement of the system ASAI before and after installation is called ASAI sensitivity. In this example, distribution terminals are installed one by one at the head ends of the feeders {1,4,7, 10, 12, 14, 16, 18, 21, 24, 26, 29, 32, 34} of the IEEE RBTS BUS2, and the corresponding ASAI is calculated by the present invention, the ASAI before installation of the distribution terminal is 0.9995876042, and the sensitivity of the ASAI before and after installation is shown in table 1.
TABLE 1 ASAI sensitivity before and after installation of the respective sites
| Position of | ASAI sensitivity/. Times.10 -6 | Position of | ASAI sensitivity x 10 -6 |
| 1 | 3.37312256 | 18 | 3.292810118 |
| 4 | 1.694592524 | 21 | 0.017592249 |
| 7 | 0.088343687 | 24 | 0.082224643 |
| 10 | 0.086049045 | 26 | 1.68656128 |
| 12 | 0.002294641 | 29 | 3.288985716 |
| 14 | 0.002868302 | 32 | 0.008222464 |
| 16 | 1.726717501 | 34 | 0.09675737 |
As can be seen from the table, when the distribution terminal is installed at the head of the feed line {1, 18, 29}, the ASAI sensitivity is the greatest, which means that if the distribution terminal on the three sections fails, the reliability of the whole system is greatly influenced; when the power distribution terminal is installed at the first section of the feed line {4, 26}, the ASAI sensitivity is inferior, which means that if the power distribution terminals on the two sections fail, the reliability of the system is greatly influenced; when the distribution terminal is arranged in the head section of the feed line {7, 10, 12, 14, 16, 21, 24, 32, 34}, the ASAI sensitivity is low, which shows that the distribution terminal on the sections has small influence on the reliability of the system if the distribution terminal fails. When the distribution terminal configuration is carried out on the distribution system, firstly, the feeders with the highest ASAI sensitivity and secondly the feeders with the second sensitivity are considered, and the maintenance and overhaul sequence of the distribution terminal is consistent with the installation sequence of the distribution terminal.
The analysis shows that the method has good universality and flexibility, can be used for reliability calculation when the power distribution terminal is normal, can also be used for reliability calculation when the power distribution system is not provided with the terminal, and can also be used for reliability calculation under the condition that the power distribution terminal is invalid. The invention can be used for guiding the configuration and the overhaul of the power distribution terminal: 1) Along with the increase of remote signaling, remote measuring and remote control failure rate, the power supply reliability of the power distribution network is reduced to some extent, but the reduction range is different, and the influence degree of different functions on the reliability is reflected to be different. When the power distribution terminal is checked and maintained, the correctness of the remote control function is preferably ensured; 2) In practice, the maintenance and the overhaul of the power distribution terminal are particularly concerned about the early stage and the later stage of use, and the two stages are particularly easy to break down, so that the reliability of the power distribution network is greatly influenced; 3) When the distribution terminal configuration is carried out on the distribution system, firstly, the feeders with the highest ASAI sensitivity and secondly the feeders with the second sensitivity are considered, and the maintenance and overhaul sequence of the distribution terminal is consistent with the installation sequence of the distribution terminal.
Fig. 12 is a schematic flow chart of the reliability calculation method of the present invention: the invention also provides a reliability calculation method comprising the power distribution network fault processing total time calculation method, which comprises the following steps:
s1, reading power grid data information of a power distribution network; the method specifically comprises the steps of measuring the length of a power supply main line, the length of a power supply branch line, average repair time corresponding to a fault rate, the operation time of an isolating switch, the load quantity of each load point, the number of power supply users of each load point and the like;
s2, establishing a power distribution network terminal failure probability model according to the power grid data information acquired in the step S1;
the fault automation processing process of the power distribution system comprises the following steps: when a fault occurs, firstly, the remote measuring function collects and calculates the running real-time parameters, the position and the type of the fault are judged, then the position signals of the corresponding switches are transmitted through the remote signaling function, and finally, the corresponding switches are operated through the remote control function, so that the automatic isolation and the automatic recovery of a fault area are realized;
if the events A, B and C are recorded as remote measurement, remote signaling and remote control failure, the events A, B and C meet the relationship shown in the figure 3 according to the coupling relationship of the events A, B and C in the fault automation processing process;
when a power distribution system breaks down, if a power distribution terminal fails to work due to a certain reason, the three sub-processes of fault location, fault isolation and fault recovery can change except that the fault line-patrol process does not change in the original fault processing process, and the time required by the corresponding process can also change. Therefore, it is critical to evaluate the reliability of the power distribution system to account for power distribution terminal failures how to build a time model for each sub-process.
For this reason, firstly, a probability model of the failure of the power distribution terminal is established, and the model can be established by adopting the following steps:
A. the following formula is adopted to establish a telemetering usability degree model Q 1 ：
Q 1 ＝Q sen Q tra Q dat
In the formula Q sen Is sensor availability; q tra Is the transmission device availability; q dat Data processing device availability;
B. the following formula is adopted to establish a remote signaling availability model Q 2 ：
Q 2 ＝Q mas Q sub Q com
In the formula Q mas Is the master station availability; q sub Is the substation availability; q com Availability for a communication network;
C. the following formula is adopted to establish a remote control availability model Q 3 ：
Q 3 ＝(1-P ref )(1-P mal )
In the formula P ref Is the rejection rate of remote control; p mal The false rate of remote control;
D. the following rules are adopted to establish a power distribution network terminal failure probability model:
if the failure condition is as follows: the remote measurement, the remote signaling and the remote control are normal; the consequences of failure at this time are: the automatic positioning is successful, and the automatic isolation is successful; the failure probability model at this time is: p 0 ＝Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 ；
If the failure condition is: telemetry failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: automatic positioning fails, and automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 1 ＝1-Q 1 ；
If the failure condition is: remote signaling failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: the automatic positioning is successful, and the automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 2 ＝1-Q 2 ；
If the failure condition is: remote control fails; the consequences of failure at this time are: the automatic positioning is successful, and the automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 3 ＝1-Q 3 ；
If the failure condition is: telemetry failure and remote control failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: automatic positioning fails, and automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 4 ＝(1-Q 1 )(1-Q 3 )；
If the failure condition is: telemetry failure and telemetry failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: automatic positioning fails, and automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 5 ＝(1-Q 1 )(1-Q 2 )；
If the failure condition is: remote signaling failure and remote controlFailure; the consequences of failure at this time are: the automatic positioning is successful, and the automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 6 ＝(1-Q 2 )(1-Q 3 ) (ii) a If the failure condition is: telemetry failure, telemetry failure and remote control failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: automatic positioning fails, and automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 7 ＝(1-Q 1 )(1-Q 2 )(1-Q 3 )；
S3, determining the type of failure of the power distribution network terminal;
s4, establishing a basic calculation model of the total fault processing time of the power distribution network; specifically, the following formula is adopted as a basic calculation model T of the total time of fault treatment of the power distribution network f ：
T f ＝T loc-r +T iso-r +T pat-exp +T rec
In the formula T loc-r Locating time for the fault, specifically telemetering, determining the fault position (which feeder line in the system can be determined, but the specific position of the fault on the feeder line cannot be determined) and the time required by the fault type of the system by using distribution automation software according to real-time parameters; t is a unit of iso-r The time required for fault isolation is the time required for realizing the on-off operation of a switch by remote control and field equipment to realize fault isolation; t is pat-exp Expected value of fault line patrol time; t is rec The fault recovery time, specifically the time required from completion of fault isolation to complete restoration of power to the system, is only related to the type of fault, and therefore can be expressed by the following equation: t is rec = f (x); in the formula, x represents the fault type and indicates which element in the system has any fault;
the expected value of the fault line patrol time is calculated by adopting the following formula:
k is the sectional number of the fault feeder line; n is the total number of the sections of the fault feeder line; Δ L k The length of the k section of the fault feeder line; l being faulty feederA length; t is t p The feeder line inspection time is unit length; and the failure rate of each feeder line per unit length is specified to be the same;
the method for calculating the expected value of the fault line patrol time specifically comprises the following steps:
supposing that after a feeder line of a power distribution system has a fault, a certain feeder line with the fault in the system is determined through a fault positioning process, the length of the feeder line is set to be L, and the line-patrol time of the feeder line in unit length is set to be t p And the fault rate of each feeder line per unit length is the same. A differential model of the feeder line is established by adopting a differential idea, and the feeder line is divided into N small sections equally, as shown in figure 2
According to the established feeder differential model, the fault line-patrol time t in the feeder line section is in direct proportion to the line-patrol distance for finding a fault point from the head end of the fault feeder line (or the tail end of the fault feeder line without influencing the fault line-patrol time), namely the fault line-patrol distance is directly proportional to the fault point
n k The number of sections from the head end of the fault feeder line to the section k;
so that the expected line-travelling time in the whole fault feeder section can be expressed as
S5, correcting the basic calculation model of the total power distribution network fault processing time established in the step S4 to obtain an accurate calculation model of the total power distribution network fault processing time; the method specifically comprises the following steps of correcting and obtaining an accurate calculation model:
a. the corrected fault positioning time T is calculated by the following formula loc-exp ：
T loc-exp ＝(1-P loc-f )×T loc-f +P loc-f ×T loc-f
In the formula T loc-f Automatically positioning the positioning time after failure; p loc-f Indicates the probability of failure of the positioning function, and in actual calculation, P loc-f ＝P i ,i＝1,4,5,7；
b. The corrected fault isolation time T is calculated by the following formula iso-exp ：
T iso-exp ＝(1-P iso-f )×T iso-f +P iso-f ×T iso-f
In the formula T iso-f The isolation time after the automatic isolation failure; p is iso-f To isolate the probability of functional failure, and in actual calculations, P iso-f ＝P j ,j＝1,2,3,4,5,6,7；
c. The corrected fault recovery time T is calculated by rec-exp ：
In the formula T ter Is the recovery time of the power distribution terminal failure, and
T rec a time to recover for an uncorrected failure;
d. the following formula is adopted as an accurate calculation model of the total time of the fault treatment of the power distribution network: t is f-exp ＝T loc-exp +T iso-exp +T pat-exp +T rec-exp ；
S6, calculating to obtain the final total fault processing time of the power distribution network according to the accurate calculation model of the total fault processing time of the power distribution network obtained in the step S5;
s7, calculating to obtain a final calculation result of the reliability of the power distribution network considering the failure of the power distribution terminal according to the total time of the power distribution network fault processing calculated in the step S6; specifically, a final power distribution network reliability calculation result considering failure of a power distribution terminal is calculated by adopting a fault consequence analysis method.
Claims (5)
1. A method for calculating the total fault handling time of a power distribution network comprises the following steps:
s1, reading power grid data information of a power distribution network;
s2, establishing a power distribution network terminal failure probability model according to the power grid data information acquired in the step S1; specifically, the model is established by adopting the following steps:
A. the following formula is adopted to establish a telemetering usability degree model Q 1 ：
Q 1 ＝Q sen Q tra Q dat
In the formula Q sen Sensor availability; q tra Is the transmission device availability; q dat Data processing device availability;
B. the following formula is adopted to establish a remote signaling availability model Q 2 ：
Q 2 ＝Q mas Q sub Q com
In the formula Q mas Is the master station availability; q sub Is the availability of the substation; q com Availability for a communication network;
C. the following formula is adopted to establish a remote control availability model Q 3 ：
Q 3 ＝(1-P ref )(1-P mal )
In the formula P ref Is the remote control rejection rate; p mal The false rate of remote control;
D. the following rules are adopted to establish a power distribution network terminal failure probability model:
if the failure condition is: the remote measurement, remote signaling and remote control are normal; the consequences of failure at this time are: the automatic positioning is successful, and the automatic isolation is successful; the failure probability model at this time is: p 0 ＝Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 ；
If the failure condition is: telemetry failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: automatic positioning fails, and automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 1 ＝1-Q 1 ；
If the failure condition is: a remote signaling failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: the automatic positioning is successful, and the automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 2 ＝1-Q 2 ；
If the failure condition is: remote control fails; the consequences of failure at this time are: the automatic positioning is successful, and the automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 3 ＝1-Q 3 ；
If the failure condition is: telemetry failure and remote control failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: automatic positioning fails, and automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 4 ＝(1-Q 1 )(1-Q 3 )；
If the failure condition is: telemetry failure and telemetry failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: automatic positioning fails, and automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 5 ＝(1-Q 1 )(1-Q 2 )；
If the failure condition is: remote signaling failure and remote control failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: the automatic positioning is successful, and the automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 6 ＝(1-Q 2 )(1-Q 3 )；
If the failure condition is: telemetry failure, telemetry failure and remote control failure; the consequences of failure at this time are: automatic positioning fails, and automatic isolation fails; the failure probability model at this time is: p 7 ＝(1-Q 1 )(1-Q 2 )(1-Q 3 )；
S3, determining the type of failure of the power distribution network terminal;
s4, establishing a basic calculation model of the total fault processing time of the power distribution network; specifically, the following formula is adopted as a basic calculation model T of the total time of fault treatment of the power distribution network f ：
T f ＝T loc-r +T iso-r +T pat-exp +T rec
In the formula T loc-r For determining faultsA bit time; t is iso-r Isolating time for a fault; t is pat-exp Expected value of fault line patrol time; t is a unit of rec Failure recovery time;
s5, correcting the basic calculation model of the total time of the power distribution network fault treatment established in the step S4, so as to obtain an accurate calculation model of the total time of the power distribution network fault treatment; the method specifically comprises the following steps of correcting and obtaining an accurate calculation model:
a. the corrected fault positioning time T is calculated by the following formula loc-exp ：
T loc-exp ＝(1-P loc-f )×T loc-f +P loc-f ×T loc-f
In the formula T loc-f Automatically positioning the positioning time after failure; p loc-f Representing the probability of failure of the positioning function;
b. the corrected fault isolation time T is calculated by the following formula iso-exp ：
T iso-exp ＝(1-P iso-f )×T iso-f +P iso-f ×T iso-f
In the formula T iso-f The isolation time after the automatic isolation failure; p iso-f Is the probability of failure of the isolation function;
c. the corrected failure recovery time T is calculated by rec-exp ：
In the formula T ter Is the recovery time of the power distribution terminal failure, and
T rec a failure recovery time for the uncorrected failure;
d. the following formula is adopted as an accurate calculation model of the total time of the fault treatment of the power distribution network: t is f-exp ＝T loc-exp +T iso-exp +T pat-exp +T rec-exp ；
And S6, calculating to obtain the final total fault processing time of the power distribution network according to the accurate calculation model of the total fault processing time of the power distribution network obtained in the step S5.
2. The method according to claim 1, wherein the grid data information of the power distribution network in step S1 specifically includes a length of a main power supply line, a length of a branch power supply line, an average repair time corresponding to a fault rate, an operation time of an isolation switch, a load amount of each load point, and a number of users of each load point.
3. The method according to claim 2, wherein the expected value of the fault line patrol time is calculated by using the following formula:
k is the sectional number of the fault feeder line; n is the total number of the sections of the fault feeder line; Δ L k The length of the k section of the fault feeder line; l is the length of the fault feeder line; t is t p The feeder line inspection time is unit length; and the failure rate of each feeder per unit length is specified to be the same.
4. A reliability calculation method comprising the method for calculating the total time for fault handling in a power distribution network according to any one of claims 1 to 3, characterized by comprising the steps of:
and S7, calculating to obtain a final calculation result of the reliability of the power distribution network considering the failure of the power distribution terminal according to the total time of the power distribution network fault processing calculated in the step S6.
5. The reliability calculation method according to claim 4, wherein the final calculation result of the reliability of the power distribution network considering the failure of the power distribution terminal is calculated according to the total time of the power distribution network failure processing calculated in the step S6, specifically, the final calculation result of the reliability of the power distribution network considering the failure of the power distribution terminal is calculated by adopting a failure consequence analysis method.
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