CN111160763A - Safety risk assessment method for hydraulic absorption basin - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a safety risk assessment method of a hydraulic power absorption pool, which comprises the steps of obtaining design parameters and actually measured damage information of the hydraulic power absorption pool, and simulating and calculating hydrodynamic load of a bottom hole of the hydraulic power absorption pool according to the design parameters; the design parameters and hydrodynamic load are used as prior probability, seepage change and actual measurement damage information are detected as edge likelihood, and the Bayesian theory is used for calculating the posterior probability of the risk of the hydraulic power absorption pool; acquiring safety risk factors influencing the components of the hydraulic absorption basin, and combing key factors influencing the safety of the hydraulic absorption basin by adopting an accident tree analysis method to establish a logic level of the hydraulic absorption basin accident; and determining the safety level of the hydraulic absorption basin by using an information matter element method according to the logic level of the hydraulic absorption basin accident. The method provided by the scheme can carry out full-coverage quantitative evaluation on the safety risk of the hydraulic absorption basin, and can save time, economy and labor cost brought by complex projects such as cofferdam construction, water pumping and the like required by the maintenance of the hydraulic absorption basin.
Description
Technical Field
The invention relates to a safety assessment technology of buildings in hydraulic engineering, in particular to a safety risk assessment method of a hydraulic absorption basin.
Background
The hydro-junction has the comprehensive utilization functions of flood control, water supply, shipping, irrigation and the like, has obvious economic, social and ecological benefits, but the safe operation of the hydro-junction is also a big matter of the national civilization concerning the safety of the masses. From large hydro-hubs (dam height over 100m, storage capacity 10 hundred million m3Above) in the years of construction, 31 seats were constructed in the 30-80 th 20 th century, 24 seats in the 90 th 20 th century and 136 seats in the 16 th prior to the 21 st century. The late 90 s to 21 st century in the 20 th century are the peak of high dam construction, and particularly, reservoirs with dam heights of more than 200m are basically built in the 21 st century. For various reasons (operation conditions, time creep, temperature, geological changes and the like), according to 2005 statistics, the problem of different degrees of illness risk exists in the existing water conservancy projects of about 1/3; and over time, the aging and disease of hydraulic structures will become more and more severe. It is anticipated that the 21 st century will be faced with the climax of hydraulic engineering consolidation and handling.
The hydraulic power dissipation pool is used as a flood discharge building of a water conservancy hub, bears the maximum flood pressure and is also the most frequent high-risk part in the existing water conservancy safety accidents. However, due to the complex geological conditions and construction techniques, the knowledge of the geological conditions during design is not comprehensive and accurate enough, and the aging of the structure, the manufacturing cost, the management and the like, the diseases of the hydraulic absorption basin often bring serious economic and social losses. And the hydraulic power absorption pool as a special water passing building faces complex and harsh hydrodynamic load working conditions and needs to be researched from the perspective of water conservancy major. On the other hand, with the wide application of the nondestructive detection method, such as real-time monitoring of the embedded sensing part and breakthrough of the robot inspection technology, timed and untimely robot/manual detection is realized, and more various data can be applied to diagnosis of diseases of the hydraulic absorption basin. How to effectively arrange and utilize a large amount of multi-source heterogeneous data, and synthesize mechanism models such as hydrodynamic force and the like, and quantitatively evaluate the safety risk state of the hydraulic power dissipation pool becomes a key problem concerning safety root in the water conservancy and energy industry.
Disclosure of Invention
Aiming at the defects in the prior art, the safety risk assessment method for the hydraulic power absorption basin provided by the invention solves the problem that the safety risk state of the hydraulic power absorption basin can not be quantitatively assessed.
In order to achieve the purpose of the invention, the invention adopts the technical scheme that:
the safety risk assessment method for the hydraulic absorption basin comprises the following steps:
acquiring design parameters and actually measured damage information of the hydraulic power absorption pool, and performing numerical simulation calculation on hydrodynamic load of a bottom hole of the hydraulic power absorption pool by adopting Flow-3D according to the design parameters;
the design parameters and hydrodynamic load are used as prior probability, seepage change and actual measurement damage information are detected as edge likelihood, and the Bayesian theory is used for calculating the posterior probability of the risk of the hydraulic power absorption pool;
acquiring safety risk factors influencing the components of the hydraulic absorption basin, and combing key factors influencing the safety of the hydraulic absorption basin by adopting an accident tree analysis method to establish a logic level of the hydraulic absorption basin accident;
and determining the safety level of the hydraulic absorption basin by using an information matter element method according to the logic level of the hydraulic absorption basin accident.
The invention has the beneficial effects that: according to the scheme, the hydrodynamic mechanism model is added into the safety assessment of the hydraulic absorption pool, so that the high-risk area where the defects occur can be predicted. By combining actually measured defect data, a dynamic and extensible security risk assessment probability system is constructed by adopting a Bayesian theory; reasonably quantifying the characteristic value and the importance degree of each index by an information matter element method, and quantitatively calculating the overall safety level of the hydraulic power absorption pool; and meanwhile, risk values of all parts of the hydraulic absorption basin are given, and decision support is provided for operation and maintenance of the hydraulic absorption basin.
Drawings
Fig. 1 is a flowchart of a safety risk assessment method for a hydraulic absorption basin.
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of establishing a logic level of a hydraulic absorption basin accident by combing key factors influencing the safety of the hydraulic absorption basin by adopting an accident tree analysis method.
Detailed Description
The following description of the embodiments of the present invention is provided to facilitate the understanding of the present invention by those skilled in the art, but it should be understood that the present invention is not limited to the scope of the embodiments, and it will be apparent to those skilled in the art that various changes may be made without departing from the spirit and scope of the invention as defined and defined in the appended claims, and all matters produced by the invention using the inventive concept are protected.
Referring to fig. 1, fig. 1 shows a flow chart of a safety risk assessment method of a hydraulic stilling pool; as shown in fig. 1, the method 100 includes steps 101 to 104.
In step 101, the design parameters and the actually measured damage information of the hydraulic absorption basin are obtained, and the hydrodynamic load of the bottom hole of the hydraulic absorption basin is calculated through numerical simulation by adopting Flow-3D according to the design parameters.
When the method is implemented, the optimal design parameters of the scheme comprise the design parameters of the dam corresponding to the hydraulic absorption basin and the design parameters of the bottom hole of the hydraulic absorption basin; the hydrodynamic load is obtained by carrying out numerical simulation calculation on the basis of a hydraulic jump dynamic principle and Flow-3D according to design parameters to obtain pressure and maximum Flow rate.
In step 102, the design parameters and hydrodynamic load are used as prior probability, seepage change and actual measurement damage information are detected as edge likelihood ratio, and the Bayesian theory is used for calculating the posterior probability of the risk of the hydraulic power dissipation pool.
In practice, the present scheme preferably optimizes the posterior probability p (θ)j|ej) The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
wherein, thetajFor eliminating the power of the hydraulic engineeringThe security risk level of the pool, j being the number of security risk levels; e.g. of the typejIs the breakage information; p (theta)j) Is a prior probability; p (theta)j|ej) Is the posterior probability; p (x) is the edge likelihood.
In step 103, the safety risk factors affecting the components of the hydraulic absorption basin are obtained, and the accident tree analysis method is adopted to comb out the key factors affecting the safety of the hydraulic absorption basin to establish the logic level of the hydraulic absorption basin accident, and the logic level of the hydraulic absorption basin accident can be seen in fig. 2.
In step 104, the safety level of the hydraulic absorption basin is determined by using an information matter element method according to the logic level of the hydraulic absorption basin accident.
In an embodiment of the present invention, determining the safety level of the hydraulic absorption basin by using the information matter element method according to the logic level of the hydraulic absorption basin accident further comprises:
s1, decomposing the hydraulic absorption basin into multiple indexes of multiple levels, comparing multiple related factors layer by layer, and dividing the indexes into multiple safety levels according to the excellent degree or importance degree of the indexes, wherein the safety level is Nj＝{N1、N2、N3、N4And { normal, slight abnormal, dangerous }.
S2, constructing the working state n-dimensional classical domain matter elements of the hydraulic power absorption pool based on the logic level obtained by combining an information matter element method and an accident tree analysis method:
wherein R is0jIs the jth level of classical domain; n is a radical of0jJ is 1,2,3, 4; c. CiEvaluation of grade N for matter element0jThe features of (1); v. of0jIs N0jIn respect of ciThe specified value range [ a ]0j,b0j]，a0jIs v is0jMinimum lower limit of b0jIs v is0jThe maximum upper limit of (d);
s3, calculating a weight matrix W of all the elements by adopting an entropy weight method, an analytic hierarchy process or a combined weighting method;
s4, calculating the relevance matrix K of the ith index characteristic of the hydraulic absorption basin on the level jj(vi)：
Kj(vi)＝ρ(vi,v0ji)/[ρ(vi,vpi)-ρ(vi,v0ji)]
ρ(vi,v0ji)＝|vi-(a0ji+b0ji)/2|-(b0ji-a0ji)/2
ρ(vi,vpi)＝|vi-(api+bpi)/2|-(bpi-api)/2
Where ρ (v)i,v0ji) Is the distance of the point to the classical domain; ρ (v)i,vpi) Is the distance from a point to a nodal region; a ispiIs v ispiA minimum lower limit of; bpiIs v ispiThe maximum upper limit of (d);
s5, calculating the relevance degree of the hydraulic absorption basin on the evaluation grade j to be Kj(N)：
Kj(N)＝WKj(v)j＝1,2,3,4
K*＝Kj *(N)＝max{K1(N),K2(N),K3(N),K4(N)}
Wherein, W is a weight matrix and is obtained by overlapping weights of each level; kj(v) Is a characteristic index correlation matrix;
and S6, judging the safety level of the hydraulic absorption basin according to the maximum association degree criterion.
After the safety level of the hydraulic power absorption pool is obtained based on the scheme, the safety of the hydraulic power absorption pool can be evaluated according to the safety level, and when the safety of the hydraulic power absorption pool is poor, the structure influencing hydrodynamic load can be checked and maintained, so that the safety performance of the hydraulic power absorption pool is improved.
The calculation of the hydrodynamic load is described below with reference to a hydraulic absorption cell of a certain hydropower station upstream of jialing river in the province of Sichuan:
a certain hydro-junction project in Canxi county of Guangyuan city, Sichuan province is invested and constructed by the group company of Datang, China, is one of six major projects of the national perfection Yangtze river flood control system, is the only controllable backbone project of the Yangling river main stream, and is also the only hydro-junction project of 18 major projects which are newly developed in the western part in 2009. The hydro-junction is a comprehensive utilization project which mainly takes flood control, irrigation, urban and rural water supply and power generation as main functions, gives consideration to shipping, has the benefits of sand blocking, silt reduction and the like, is one of 6 flood control reservoir projects which are determined by State institutes and are used for perfecting a Yangtze river flood control system to be operated recently in order to improve the Yangtze river flood control system, and is also one of recovery reconstruction projects and pull interior-required key projects after disasters in Sichuan province.
The total storage capacity is 40.67 billion cubic meters, the regulated storage capacity is 10.60 billion cubic meters, and the controlled irrigation area is 292.14 trillion. The project is first class, and the project scale is large (1). The main building is level 1, the power plant is level 2, and the secondary building is level 3. The designed flood recovery period of the concrete dam is 500 years, and the check flood recovery period is 5000 years. The flood recovery period of energy dissipation building design is 100 years.
The hub is mainly used for flood control, the peak value of the flood of the Jialing river is large, and the designed peak value of the flood of the dam reaches 34500m 3/s. The total axial length of the gravity dam is 995.4m, the dam crest elevation is 465m, and the maximum dam height is 116 m. The water outlet buildings are all arranged in the middle of the riverbed and consist of 8 surface holes and 5 bottom holes, and the bottom holes are adjacent to the dam section of the factory building and are arranged on the left side of the surface holes. The surface hole dam section is 18.5m wide, and the gate pier is 4.5m thick; the bottom hole dam section is 17.0 m. The total length of the overflow front edge is 243.5m, and an underflow energy dissipation form is adopted. The invention takes a bottom hole hydraulic absorption basin as an example to explain the implementation scheme.
The bottom hole of the hydraulic stilling pool is mainly used for flood discharge and sand discharge, and is also used as a diversion bottom hole in the construction period, the total number of the holes is 5, and the sizes of the holes are 6m multiplied by 9m (width multiplied by height). The bottom hole bottom plate height is 374.0m, and the bottom hole bottom plate adopts a pressure short pipe form, the two sides of the downstream of the outlet of the pressure short pipe are suddenly expanded by 0.5m, and the bottom drop threshold is 1.6m high. The slope ratio of the open channel is 1: 4.5, the lower section is adjusted to be horizontal by adopting an arc with the radius of 75m and then reaches an outlet, the outlet drops 8.0m suddenly to the bottom plate of the hydraulic absorption basin, the outlet elevation is 362.0m, and the hydraulic absorption basin protection elevation is 354.0 m. The bottom plate of the bottom hole pool is 354.0m in height, 187.7m in length (from the outlet of the bottom hole open groove to the tail ridge of the hydraulic absorption pool), 75m in pool width, and the tail ridge of the hydraulic absorption pool is continuous, and 367m in ridge top height. The length of the anti-impact section behind the tail sill is 35m, and the height is 360.3 m. The hydraulic absorption basin is provided with a closed pumping system.
7 and 11 months in 2018, the hydraulic hub is subjected to flood meeting in more than 50 years and close to 80 years, and the maximum warehousing flood peak reaches 25130m3And s. The reservoir plays a role of impounding and controlling the lower discharge quantity, and the maximum delivery quantity is 16790m3(s) effective flood retention of 8.1 hundred million m3Average subtracted peak 6731m3And/s, the average peak clipping rate reaches 34%, the engineering peak clipping and flood retarding functions are fully exerted, the flood control pressures of cities such as lower streams, Langzhous, south-charging and the like are greatly reduced, and the life and property safety of people on two sides along the river is guaranteed.
During the period of 711 flood peak, the first 8 meter hole arc doors of the hydro-junction are fully opened, and simultaneously, 3 bottom holes are opened. Maximum discharge rate 5607m of bottom hole hydraulic absorption basin3(7 months, 12 days 06: 00) and a gross head (difference between upstream and downstream water levels) 71.73 m. The maximum leakage flow of the bottom hole is selected as the worst working condition, hydraulic calculation and safety evaluation are carried out, and the main parameters are as follows in the following table 1:
according to the concrete parameters of the hydraulic power absorption pool of the hydropower station in the table 1, hydrodynamic load calculation is carried out, and according to the hydraulic jump basic principle, the hydraulic jump main parameters are calculated, wherein the calculation process is as follows in the following table 2:
table 2 elevation and size design chart of bottom hole flood discharge building
The first conjugate depth of water was calculated to be 1.94m, and the single width flow was divided by this conjugate depth to obtain the mean flow velocity of the jump front section 38.54m/s, so the Froude number Fr1 of the jump front section was 8.83 and the second conjugate depth was 23.28 m. The calculation result and design data under the 711 flood peak condition are as follows:
table 3 bottom hole flood discharge building design and 711 flood peak hydraulic jump parameters
As can be seen from Table 3, Fr1<9.0 belongs to stable hydraulic jump, and has high energy dissipation efficiency, stable hydraulic jump and relatively calm water surface after jump. With hydraulic energy dissipation, it is preferable to have Fr1 within this range.
According to the difference of tail water and conjugate water depth after jump, the hydraulic jump can be critical hydraulic jump, remote driving hydraulic jump and submerged hydraulic jump. The remote driving hydraulic jump has larger scour to the riverbed, the critical hydraulic jump is unstable, and the formed submerged hydraulic jump is most beneficial to the engineering safety. The second conjugate water depth is 23.28m, which is less than the water depth 29.84m behind the dam, and is a submerged hydraulic jump. Rectangular open channel step length 142.10m (Wu Ju, or 128.07m, Smetana; 147.28m, Elevatoski). The length of the bottom hole hydraulic absorption basin is 187.70m, so that hydraulic jump occurs in the middle front part of the hydraulic absorption basin and meets the design specifications.
Flow-3D carries out numerical simulation model according to bottom hole energy dissipation building design and construction drawing, upstream water Flow is stopped by the dam face, after the upstream pressure pipeline is connected with the arc gate, the upstream pressure pipeline rushes through a section of slope and an inverse arc surface, jumps down a 8m deep sill, rushes into a hydraulic absorption basin, the length of the hydraulic absorption basin is 187.7m, the tail part of the hydraulic absorption basin is provided with a 13m high sill, and finally the hydraulic absorption basin enters a downstream river channel. The bottom hole hydraulic absorption basin has 5 bottom holes, and according to the practical situation of 711 flood discharge, 1, 3 and 5 holes, namely two sides and a middle hole, are opened to establish a model. Initial water levels 111.57m, 39.84m (thickness of bottom plate of downstream hydraulic absorption basin is 10 m). The results of actual measurement and simulation calculation are shown in table 4, and the comparison and verification of the numerical results show that the maximum Flow rate error is 3.19 percent and the pressure error is 2.25 percent, which indicates that the numerical simulation calculation by Flow-3D has high reliability.
TABLE 4 comparison of the results of numerical simulation, actual measurement and preliminary calculation of the main parameters
In conclusion, the method provided by the scheme can carry out full-coverage quantitative evaluation on the safety risk of the hydraulic absorption basin, the evaluation result provides a scientific basis for the operation and maintenance of the hydropower station, the time, the economic cost and the labor cost brought by complex projects such as cofferdam construction and water pumping required by the maintenance of the hydraulic absorption basin are saved, and the method has obvious practical engineering significance.
Claims (6)
1. The safety risk assessment method of the hydraulic absorption basin is characterized by comprising the following steps:
acquiring design parameters and actually measured damage information of the hydraulic power absorption pool, and performing numerical simulation calculation on hydrodynamic load of a bottom hole of the hydraulic power absorption pool by adopting Flow-3D according to the design parameters;
the design parameters and hydrodynamic load are used as prior probability, seepage change and actual measurement damage information are detected as edge likelihood, and the Bayesian theory is used for calculating the posterior probability of the risk of the hydraulic power absorption pool;
acquiring safety risk factors influencing the components of the hydraulic absorption basin, and combing key factors influencing the safety of the hydraulic absorption basin by adopting an accident tree analysis method to establish a logic level of the hydraulic absorption basin accident;
and determining the safety level of the hydraulic absorption basin by using an information matter element method according to the logic level of the hydraulic absorption basin accident.
2. The safety risk assessment method for a water conservancy diversion basin according to claim 1, wherein the posterior probability p (θ)j|ej) The calculation formula of (2) is as follows:
wherein, thetajThe safety risk level of the hydraulic absorption basin is j, and the number of the safety risk levels is j; e.g. of the typejIs the breakage information; p (theta)j) Is a prior probability; p (theta)j|ej) Is the posterior probability; p (x) isThe edge likelihood ratio.
3. The method for evaluating the safety risk of the hydraulic absorption basin according to claim 1, wherein the step of determining the safety level of the hydraulic absorption basin by using the information matter element method according to the logic level of the hydraulic absorption basin accident further comprises the following steps:
s1, decomposing the hydraulic absorption basin into a plurality of indexes of a plurality of levels, comparing a plurality of correlation factors layer by layer, and dividing the correlation factors into a plurality of safety levels according to the excellent degree or the important degree of the indexes;
s2, constructing the working state n-dimensional classical domain matter elements of the hydraulic power absorption pool based on the logic level obtained by combining an information matter element method and an accident tree analysis method:
wherein R is0jIs the jth level of classical domain; n is a radical of0jJ is 1,2,3, 4; c. CiEvaluation of grade N for matter element0jThe features of (1); v. of0jIs N0jIn respect of ciThe specified value range [ a ]0j,b0j]，a0jIs v is0jMinimum lower limit of b0jIs v is0jThe maximum upper limit of (d);
s3, calculating a weight matrix W of all the elements by adopting an entropy weight method, an analytic hierarchy process or a combined weighting method;
s4, calculating the relevance matrix K of the ith index characteristic of the hydraulic absorption basin on the level jj(vi)：
Kj(vi)＝ρ(vi,v0ji)/[ρ(vi,vpi)-ρ(vi,v0ji)]
ρ(vi,v0ji)＝|vi-(a0ji+b0ji)/2|-(b0ji-a0ji)/2
ρ(vi,vpi)＝|vi-(api+bpi)/2|-(bpi-api)/2
Where ρ (v)i,v0ji) Is the distance of the point to the classical domain; ρ (v)i,vpi) Is the distance from a point to a nodal region; a ispiIs v ispiA minimum lower limit of; bpiIs v ispiThe maximum upper limit of (d);
s5, calculating the relevance degree of the hydraulic absorption basin on the evaluation grade j to be Kj(N)：
Kj(N)＝WKj(v) j＝1,2,3,4
Wherein, W is a weight matrix and is obtained by overlapping weights of each level; kj(v) Is a characteristic index correlation matrix;
and S6, judging the safety level of the hydraulic absorption basin according to the maximum association degree criterion.
4. The safety risk assessment method for the hydraulic absorption basin according to claim 1, wherein the design parameters comprise design parameters of a dam corresponding to the hydraulic absorption basin and design parameters of a bottom hole of the hydraulic absorption basin; the hydrodynamic load is obtained by carrying out numerical simulation calculation on the basis of a hydraulic jump dynamic principle and Flow-3D according to design parameters to obtain pressure and maximum Flow rate.
5. The method for assessing the safety risk of a hydraulic absorption basin according to any one of claims 1 to 4, wherein the safety level is Nj＝{N1、N2、N3、N4And { normal, slight abnormal, dangerous }.
6. The safety risk assessment method of a water conservancy power absorption pond according to claim 5, wherein the structure affecting hydrodynamic load is inspected and overhauled according to the safety level at which the water conservancy power absorption pond is located.
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| CN113048925A (en) * | 2021-03-18 | 2021-06-29 | 清华四川能源互联网研究院 | Method for measuring underwater sedimentation height of stilling pool and safely grading underwater sedimentation height |
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