CN111144792A - Method and system for researching drainage basin water resource risk transfer rule - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a method and a system for researching a drainage basin water resource risk transfer rule, which mainly aim at the uncertainty problem of drainage basin water resource scheduling and represent the problem of dynamic transfer of a risk source in a drainage basin system and a subsystem. Identifying the risk source elements of the water resources of the basin under study based on a disaster risk system theory and a disaster risk forming mechanism; establishing a watershed water resource risk evaluation model; the method comprises the steps of judging a water resource risk transfer relation by using a basin risk transfer method, identifying a water resource risk transfer path, establishing a basin water resource risk transfer model, drawing a risk transfer path diagram, and researching risk transfer characteristics and transfer rules. The method can evaluate the water resource risk on the time-space scale of the drainage basin, clearly analyze the water resource risk transmission path, direction and strength, analyze the risk transmission rule in a drainage basin system and a subsystem, and provide a new technical scheme for drainage basin water resource risk evaluation, forecast and management.
Description
Technical Field
The invention belongs to the technical field of water resource management, and particularly relates to a method and a system for researching a drainage basin water resource risk transfer rule.
Background
Water is a source of life and is an important basic resource for human survival and development of economic society. In recent years, with the development of climate change and social economy, various risk problems of water resources are increasingly serious, the research aspect of water resource risk is concerned by more and more experts, and risk management of water resources is an effective way and development trend for improving the water resource management level and coping with the water resource problems. The method is also rarely researched at home and abroad aiming at the aspect of the risk transfer rule of the watershed water resources. The risk sources can generate quantitative change and qualitative change in the transmission process, the transmission form in a basin space can also show various rules, and how to represent the dynamic transmission process of various risk sources in a basin system and a subsystem is a main key scientific problem to be solved for real-time risk scheduling and emergency regulation of basin water resources.
Disclosure of Invention
The invention aims to overcome the defects of the prior art and provide a new method and a system for researching a drainage basin water resource risk transfer rule, and aims to identify a plurality of risk factors faced by drainage basin water resource scheduling aiming at the problem of uncertainty of drainage basin water resource scheduling, establish a risk evaluation model and a risk transfer model and research main influence factors, transfer paths, transfer characteristics and rules of risk transfer.
In order to solve the technical problem, the invention provides a method for researching a drainage basin water resource risk transfer rule, which mainly comprises the following steps: acquiring risk source data of watershed water resources; establishing a basin water resource risk evaluation model and establishing a basin water resource risk transfer model.
Further, in the method for researching the watershed water resource risk transfer rule, the method for establishing the watershed water resource risk evaluation model comprises the following specific steps:
step 21: identifying risk factors, identifying water resource risk factors from disaster factors, disaster bearing bodies, disaster pregnant environments and disaster prevention and reduction capabilities, and establishing a water resource risk evaluation index system comprising a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer;
step 22: standardizing risk indexes, namely standardizing the water resource risk source data and converting the water resource risk source data into dimensionless pure numerical values;
step 23: determining the weight, determining the relative importance degree of the water resource risk elements, and the contribution degree or importance of the water resource risk elements to the basin risk;
step 24: and evaluating the risk condition of the water resource.
The specific steps of establishing the drainage basin water resource risk transfer model are as follows:
step 31, judging the risk transfer relationship, and obtaining the water resource risk transfer relationship and the transfer path through correlation test, wherein the significance level α of the correlation test is 0.05 and the confidence interval of 95 percent;
step 32: and analyzing and calculating the risk transfer condition of the water resource and researching the risk transfer rule.
The specific steps of step 32 are as follows:
step 321: the variables are standardized, when the relation between variable values is analyzed, the dimension of independent variables is different, so that the influence effect cannot be directly compared according to the dimension of a regression coefficient b value on the basis of the traditional multiple linear regression, and therefore, the variables are standardized, the dimension is the same, and then the variables are compared; the partial regression coefficient after variable standardization is the transfer coefficient;
step 322: decomposing the correlation coefficient of the variables, decomposing the n variables, and dividing x1Single correlation coefficient r to y1yThe decomposition is as follows: r is1y＝p1y+r12p2y+r13p3y+…+r1npnyIn the formula: p is a radical of1yIs x1Direct transfer coefficient of y, r12p2yIs x1By x2Indirect coefficient of transfer of y, r13p3yIs x1By x3Indirect coefficient of transfer for y, … …, r1npnyIs x1By xnIndirect transfer coefficient to y; for the same reason, respectively x2Single correlation coefficient r to y2y、x3Single correlation coefficient r to y3y、……、xnSingle correlation coefficient r to ynyCarrying out decomposition;
step 323: calculating the transfer coefficient, establishing a system of equations for the single correlation coefficient based on the decomposition of the single correlation coefficient, and determining the transfer coefficient based on the system of equations
Determining a risk transfer relation by taking a confidence interval of α -0.05, 95% or a confidence interval of α -0.10, 90% through correlation test, determining the risk transfer relation if the risk transfer relation passes the correlation test, determining a transfer path according to the transfer relation, analyzing and calculating the water resource risk transfer condition, and researching the risk transfer rule.
Meanwhile, the invention also provides a system for researching the risk transfer rule of the water resources in the drainage basin, which comprises the following steps: the risk source element identification unit is used for identifying risk source elements and acquiring risk source data; the risk evaluation unit is used for establishing a risk evaluation model, dividing water resource risks and quantifying the water resource risks; and the risk transfer analysis unit is used for establishing a risk transfer path model and identifying a risk transfer rule.
Further, in the present invention, the system for researching a watershed water resource risk transfer rule is characterized in that the risk source element identification unit includes: selecting a research basin, and identifying the selected basin water resource risk source elements; and continuously monitoring, recording and counting the identified risk source element data to obtain original data.
The risk assessment unit includes: establishing a water resource risk evaluation index system according to the identified risk source elements; according to the obtained original data, carrying out standardization processing on each evaluation index data, eliminating the influence of dimension and magnitude, and converting into a dimensionless pure numerical value; determining the relative importance degree of the water resource risk elements according to the risk source elements, and determining the weight; and evaluating the water resource risk according to the risk evaluation index system.
According to the calculation result of the risk evaluation unit, supposing that the risk of the water resource in the drainage basin cannot be transferred across the drainage basin, then carrying out correlation test on the sub-drainage basins, determining a water resource risk transfer path through a confidence interval of 0.05 and 95 percent between α and adjacent sub-drainage basins subjected to the correlation test, and establishing a water resource risk transfer model;
establishing a system of equations for the single correlation coefficients between the variables based on the decomposition of the single correlation coefficients
Obtaining the transfer coefficient among all the relevant variables; and analyzing and calculating the risk transfer condition of the water resource according to the transfer coefficient, and researching the risk transfer rule.
Compared with the prior art, the invention has the beneficial effects that:
the invention provides a system method based on risk identification-evaluation-transmission for the first time, which can evaluate the water resource risk of each sub-basin on a space-time scale, analyze the transmission rule of the risk in the sub-basins and clarify the transmission path, direction and strength of the risk among sub-basins of the sub-basins. The method mainly aims at the uncertainty problem of river basin water resource scheduling and represents the problem of dynamic transmission of risk sources in a river basin system and a subsystem. Identifying the risk source elements of the water resources of the basin under study based on a disaster risk system theory and a disaster risk forming mechanism; establishing a watershed water resource risk evaluation model; the method comprises the steps of judging a water resource risk transfer relation by using a basin risk transfer method, identifying a water resource risk transfer path, establishing a basin water resource risk transfer model, drawing a risk transfer path diagram, and researching risk transfer characteristics and transfer rules. The method can evaluate the water resource risk on the time-space scale of the drainage basin, clearly analyze the water resource risk transmission path, direction and strength, analyze the risk transmission rule in a drainage basin system and a subsystem, and provide a new technical scheme for drainage basin water resource risk evaluation, forecast and management.
Drawings
FIG. 1 is a flow chart of a method for researching a drainage basin water resource risk transfer rule according to the invention;
FIG. 2 is a schematic diagram of a risk assessment model established in the present invention;
FIG. 3 is a schematic diagram of the risk transfer model establishment in the present invention;
FIG. 4 is a system flow chart for researching a watershed water resource risk transfer rule according to the invention;
FIG. 5 shows the risk of drought, waterlogging and sudden turning in the secondary water resource area of Zhujiang in the embodiment;
FIG. 6 is a water resource area secondary water resource drought and waterlogging and rapid turning risk transfer diagram in the Zhujiang river basin in the embodiment;
fig. 7(a) to 7(c) are graphs of the risk transfer of drought, waterlogging and sudden turning in 5-year period in the riverside at Zhujiang river basin in the example, wherein fig. 7(a) is the risk transfer of drought, waterlogging and sudden turning in 2000-year-old, fig. 7(b) is the risk transfer of drought, waterlogging and sudden turning in 2005-year-old, and fig. 7(c) is the risk transfer of drought, waterlogging and sudden turning in 2010-2014-year-old.
Detailed Description
The invention will be further described with reference to the following figures and specific examples, which are not intended to limit the invention in any way.
As shown in fig. 1, the method for researching the risk transfer law of the water resources in the drainage basin, provided by the invention, comprises the following steps: acquiring risk source data of watershed water resources; establishing a basin water resource risk evaluation model and establishing a basin water resource risk transfer model.
Wherein, the acquiring the source data of the risk of the water resources of the drainage basin comprises: identifying water resource risk factors from disaster factors, disaster-bearing bodies, disaster-pregnant environments and disaster prevention and reduction capabilities, and following the principles of comprehensiveness, scientificity, operability, systematicness and the like;
in the invention, a watershed water resource risk evaluation model is established, as shown in fig. 2, which mainly comprises: standardizing index data of each risk source; determining the relative importance degree of the risk source elements to the risk, and determining the weight of the risk source; and establishing a risk evaluation model comprising a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer, analyzing, quantifying the risk and laying a foundation for establishing a risk transfer model.
Establishing a drainage basin water resource risk transfer model, as shown in fig. 3, mainly including: and identifying risk transfer relations, determining risk transfer paths, and identifying water resource risk transfer characteristics and transfer rules.
The invention establishes a watershed water resource risk transfer model by applying a risk transfer method. The risk transfer method is an extension of regression analysis, belongs to attribution analysis and is used for processing the causal relationship among complex multivariable. Correlating coefficient r of independent variable x and dependent variable y based on regression analysisiyAnd (i is the number of the variables) decomposing the direct influence and the indirect influence of the independent variable x on the dependent variable y, and considering the direct and indirect comprehensive effects between the independent variable x and the dependent variable y, wherein the correlation coefficient between the variables is the sum of the direct transfer coefficient and the indirect transfer coefficient.
Is provided with n variables and variable correlation coefficient r1yCan be decomposed into independent variable x1Direct effect p on dependent variable y1yAnd independent variable x1By indirect effect r of other n-1 variables on the dependent variable y12p2y+r13p3y+…+r1(n-1)p(n-1)y。
In the same way, the relation of the rest n-1 variables to the variable y can obtain an equation set (1):
the linear correlation among the variables is tested, when α is equal to 0.05 and the confidence interval of 95 percent is met, the linear significance among the variables is considered to be obvious, the linear correlation among the variables is statistically tested, a step-by-step test analysis method is adopted, the variables which do not meet the significance test are eliminated, and after direct and indirect effects are considered, linear equations which have relations to target variables in the rest n-1 variables in the basin can be obtained, the decomposition among the n variables is taken as an example for detailed description, and the method comprises the three steps of variable standardization, correlation coefficient decomposition and transmission coefficient calculation:
(1) variable normalization
In analyzing the relationship between variable values, the dimensions of independent variables are different, and thus the magnitude of the effect cannot be compared directly on the basis of the conventional multiple linear regression according to the magnitude of the regression coefficient b value, and thus the variables are normalized to have the same dimensions and then can be compared. The variable normalization method and process are as follows:
formulas (2) to (3) give (4):
standard deviation delta of formula (4) divided by yyObtaining (5):
identity transformation of formula (5) gives (6):
in the formula: deltay、
Is sequentially y and x1、x2、…、xnStandard deviation of (2). In addition, (7):
then, there is (8):
the partial regression coefficient after variable normalization is the transfer coefficient, such as (9):
(2) decomposition of correlation coefficient
r1yCan be decomposed into: r is1y＝p1y+r12p2y+r13p3y+…+r1npny
In the formula: p is a radical of1y——x1Coefficient of direct transmission to y (direct influence)
r12p2y——x1By x2Indirect coefficient of transmission (indirect influence) to y
r13p3y——x1By x3Indirect coefficient of transmission (indirect influence) to y
…………
r1npny——x1By xnIndirect coefficient of transmission (indirect influence) to y
By the same principle, r can be analyzed2y、r3y、…、rnyDecomposition of (3).
(3) Calculating a transfer coefficient:
establishing an equation system of the single correlation coefficient according to the decomposition of the single correlation coefficient, wherein the equation system is expressed as formula (10):
when a watershed water resource risk transfer model is established, a risk transfer relation is judged through a correlation test (generally, α is 0.05 and 95% confidence interval or α is 0.10 and 90% confidence interval as required), if the risk transfer relation passes through the correlation test, the risk transfer relation is obtained, a transfer path is determined according to the transfer relation, the water resource risk transfer condition is analyzed and calculated, and a risk transfer rule is researched.
The invention provides a system for researching the risk transfer rule of water resources in a drainage basin, as shown in fig. 4, the system mainly comprises: a risk source element identification unit 100, a risk evaluation unit 200, and a risk delivery analysis unit 300.
The risk source element identification unit is used for identifying risk source elements and acquiring risk source data; the risk evaluation unit is used for establishing a risk evaluation model and dividing the risk of water resources; and the risk transfer analysis unit is used for establishing a risk transfer path model and identifying a risk transfer rule.
The risk source element identification unit includes: the research basin is selected, and according to the characteristics of the selected area, the selected basin water resource risk source elements are identified according to the principles of comprehensiveness, scientificity, operability, systematicness and the like from the four aspects of disaster factors, disaster-bearing bodies, disaster-pregnant environments and disaster prevention and reduction capabilities. And continuously monitoring, recording and counting the identified risk source element data to obtain original data.
The risk assessment unit includes: establishing a water resource risk evaluation index system comprising a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer according to the identified risk source elements; according to the obtained original data, carrying out standardization processing on each evaluation index data, eliminating the influence of dimension and magnitude, and converting into a dimensionless pure numerical value; determining the relative importance degree of the water resource risk elements according to the identified risk source elements, and determining the weight of each index; and evaluating the water resource risk according to the risk evaluation index system.
The risk transfer analysis unit is used for assuming that the risk of the water resource in the drainage basin cannot be transferred across the drainage basin according to the calculation result of the risk evaluation unit, then performing correlation test on the sub-drainage basins, determining a water resource risk transfer path through adjacent sub-drainage basins (α is 0.05, and the confidence interval is 95%) subjected to the correlation test, and establishing a water resource risk transfer model.
Establishing a system of equations for the single correlation coefficients between the variables based on the decomposition of the single correlation coefficients
And obtaining the transfer coefficient among the relevant variables. And analyzing and calculating the risk transfer condition of the water resource according to the transfer coefficient, and researching the risk transfer rule.
Examples
Referring to fig. 1, fig. 1 is a method for researching a risk transfer law of a water resource in a drainage basin according to the present invention.
And recognizing risk source elements and acquiring risk source data by considering the characteristics of the research basin. The method is characterized in that the geographical position, the geological condition, the river water system characteristics, the climatic hydrological condition and the natural geography and social economic data of the soil vegetation condition of the Zhujiang river basin are considered, the drought and waterlogging rush transfer risk source is identified from the four aspects of the dangerousness, the exposition, the fragility and the drought and disaster prevention and reduction capacity of the drought and waterlogging rush transfer disasters, and 10 index factors are selected to represent the drought and waterlogging rush transfer risk according to the principles of scientificity, comprehensiveness, systematicness, hierarchy, dynamics, operability and the like.
According to the established risk evaluation model, a drought and waterlogging emergency disaster risk evaluation index system is established, and the risk evaluation index system is shown in table 1:
TABLE 1 Risk evaluation index system for drought, waterlogging and sudden-turn disasters and data sources
Referring to fig. 2, fig. 2 is a schematic diagram of establishing a risk assessment model according to the present invention.
Normalizing the acquired risk source index data, determining each index weight by using an entropy weight method, and constructing a drought and waterlogging emergency turning risk index model as follows:
R＝f(H,E,V,C)＝H+E+V+C
in the formula: r is drought and waterlogging acute turning Risk index (Risk of Flood); h is the risk of a disaster-causing factor (Hazard); e is Exposure of disaster-bearing body (Exposure); v is Vulnerability of pregnant disaster environment (Vulnerability); and C is Disaster Prevention and reduction capability (Disaster Prevention). WiIs a weight coefficient of each evaluation index, Hi、Ei、Vi、CiAnd normalizing the data of each index layer. And (3) calculating the drought and waterlogging rush turning risk values of 7 secondary water resource areas of the Zhujiang river basin through a model based on index data selected by the drought and waterlogging rush turning risk evaluation model, wherein the drought and waterlogging rush turning risk values of the two secondary water resource areas of the Zhujiang river are shown in a diagram 5.
Referring to fig. 3, fig. 3 is a schematic diagram illustrating a risk transfer model establishment process according to the present invention.
The method comprises the steps of determining risk transfer paths based on seven secondary water resource areas of the Zhujiang river basin, wherein the seven secondary water resource areas can be divided into upper and lower areas according to river water systems of the basin, supposing that risks cannot be transferred across the basin, and obtaining the correlation among 7 secondary water resource areas by correlation tests (α is 0.05 and 95% confidence interval), wherein the correlation is 8 groups of transfer relations before the 7 secondary water resource areas, namely south-north-Shanghai-red-willow, west-north-Yangtze, Yujiang-north-Yangtze, north-Zhujiang-Jiang delta, east-Zhujiang delta, north-east-Jiangjiang-Zhujiang delta, red-willow, west-north-Yangtze and Zhujiang secondary water resource areas, and determining risk transfer paths according to the existing transfer relations, wherein the established risk transfer models are used, and the drought and flood transfer relations between the water resource areas of the Zhujiang river basin and the 8 groups of the Zhujiang river are simultaneously considered, the drought and indirect transfer effects of the risk transfer areas of the Yujiang river in each year are calculated, and the Rizhjiang torrent transfer risk transfer area of the Zhujiang river 6 shows the Rizhjiang river transfer maps of the Taijiang river.
The transfer value of drought, waterlogging and sharp turn risks in a secondary water resource area of the Yangtze river basin fluctuates between [ -0.35 and 0.20], wherein the transfer value of risks from the southern and northern Yangtze river to the Tamarix river is smaller, and the transfer value of risks fluctuates between [ -0.049220 and 0.061712 ]; the risk transmission value of the rose willow to the north river slightly fluctuates, the highest (0.208265) appears in 2015, and the second highest (0.114791) appears in 2001, and the rose willow reaches the north river; the risk transfer from the west river to the north river is small, and the average of years approaches 0; the risk transmission value of the Yujiang to the North river is also small, and the highest (0.1054) appears in 2004 from the North river to the Yujiang; the risk transfer value from east river to bead triangle fluctuates between [ -0.237424,0.067739], with the highest (0.237424) occurring in 2008 from bead triangle to east river; the risk transfer from the north river and the east river to the Yangtze delta is large, the risk fluctuation is large, and the risk transfer value fluctuates between-0.345077 and 0.199246; risk transmission from Honghua river, Xijiang river and Yujiang river to the North river basically presents symmetrical distribution, and the risk transmission value fluctuates between-0.188655 and 0.161220. The 60% risk transmission value exceeds zero, which represents positive transmission, indicating that the risk is most likely to be transmitted from upstream to downstream, and the risk transmission values are negative values and are concentrated in individual years, such as 2006, 2008, 2014 and 2015, indicating that in individual years, drought and flood rush turning risks exist in the phenomenon of downstream and upstream transmission. Because the risk transfer condition of each year is analyzed separately, the drought and waterlogging rush transfer risk transfer value of the secondary water resource area in the drainage basin is divided into a short period of 5 years, and the drought and waterlogging rush transfer average value of each 5 years can be obtained, fig. 7(a) to 7(c) show drought and waterlogging rush transfer risk transfer graphs of the Zhujiang drainage basin in the period of 5 years, wherein fig. 7(a) is the drought and waterlogging rush transfer risk transfer in 2004-2000-plus, fig. 7(b) is the drought and waterlogging rush transfer risk transfer in 2009-2005-plus, and fig. 7(c) is the drought and waterlogging rush transfer risk transfer in 2014-2010-plus.
As can be seen from fig. 7(a), 7(b) and 7 (c): in 2000-2004, the risk transfer value from west river to north river and from Yujiang river to north river is negative, which indicates that the risk transfer values of drought, waterlogging and quick turning from north river to upstream west river and Yujiang river are 0.013010 and 0.016340 respectively, the risk transfer values of drought, waterlogging and quick turning from north river to Zhujiang delta are all transferred from upstream to downstream, the risk transfer value of drought, waterlogging and quick turning from north river to Jianjiang delta is 0.036768, and the risk transfer value of drought, waterlogging and quick turning from south disk river to red willow river is 0.007222; in 2005-2009 the risk transfer values from east and north rivers to the Zhujiang Delta are negative, and the risk transfer values from other secondary water resource areas are from upstream to downstream, wherein the risk transfer value from the Zhujiang Delta to east river is 0.035990, and the risk transfer value from south and north trawl rivers to the Tamarix river is 0.032826; in 2010-2014, only risks in the process of transferring from east to Zhujiang Delta and in the process of transferring from Yujiang to north are positive values, and risks in other secondary water resource areas are negative values, which indicates that most risks are transferred from downstream to upstream.
In conclusion, the transmission rule of drought and waterlogging and sudden turning risks is as follows: the change of drought and flood risk transfer values between upper and lower flow domains shows a change trend which is gradually increased and gradually decreased; when the area with the high drought and flood turning risk in the drainage basin is the Tanjiang delta in the east, the drought and flood turning risk is transmitted from the upstream to the downstream in a forward direction, and when the area with the high drought and flood turning risk in the drainage basin moves from the east to the Tanjiang area in the west, the drought and flood turning risk is transmitted from the downstream to the upstream in a reverse direction.
While the present invention has been described with reference to the accompanying drawings, the present invention is not limited to the above-described embodiments, which are illustrative only and not restrictive, and various modifications which do not depart from the spirit of the present invention and which are intended to be covered by the claims of the present invention may be made by those skilled in the art.
Claims (8)
1. A method for researching a drainage basin water resource risk transfer rule is characterized by mainly comprising the following steps: acquiring risk source data of watershed water resources; establishing a basin water resource risk evaluation model and establishing a basin water resource risk transfer model.
2. The method for researching the watershed water resource risk transfer law according to claim 1, wherein the specific steps of establishing the watershed water resource risk evaluation model are as follows:
step 21: identifying risk factors, identifying water resource risk factors from disaster factors, disaster bearing bodies, disaster pregnant environments and disaster prevention and reduction capabilities, and establishing a water resource risk evaluation index system comprising a target layer, a criterion layer and an index layer;
step 22: standardizing risk indexes, namely standardizing the water resource risk source data and converting the water resource risk source data into dimensionless pure numerical values;
step 23: determining the weight, determining the relative importance degree of the water resource risk elements, and the contribution degree or importance of the water resource risk elements to the basin risk;
step 24: and evaluating the risk condition of the water resource.
3. The method for researching the watershed water resource risk transfer rule according to claim 1, wherein the specific steps for establishing the watershed water resource risk transfer model are as follows:
step 31, judging the risk transfer relationship, and obtaining the water resource risk transfer relationship and the transfer path through correlation test, wherein the significance level α of the correlation test is 0.05 and the confidence interval of 95 percent;
step 32: and analyzing and calculating the risk transfer condition of the water resource and researching the risk transfer rule.
4. The method for researching watershed water resource risk transfer rules according to claim 3, wherein the specific steps of the step 32 are as follows:
step 321: the variables are standardized, when the relation between variable values is analyzed, the dimension of independent variables is different, so that the influence effect cannot be directly compared according to the dimension of a regression coefficient b value on the basis of the traditional multiple linear regression, and therefore, the variables are standardized, the dimension is the same, and then the variables are compared; the partial regression coefficient after variable standardization is the transfer coefficient;
step 322: decomposing the correlation coefficient of the variables, decomposing the n variables, and dividing x1Single correlation coefficient r to y1yThe decomposition is as follows: r is1y＝p1y+r12p2y+r13p3y+…+r1npnyIn the formula: p is a radical of1yIs x1Direct transfer coefficient of y, r12p2yIs x1By x2Indirect coefficient of transfer of y, r13p3yIs x1By x3Indirect coefficient of transfer for y, … …, r1npnyIs x1By xnIndirect transfer coefficient to y;
for the same reason, respectively x2Single correlation coefficient r to y2y、x3Single correlation coefficient r to y3y、……、xnSingle correlation coefficient r to ynyCarrying out decomposition;
step 323: calculating the transfer coefficient, establishing a system of equations for the single correlation coefficient based on the decomposition of the single correlation coefficient, and determining the transfer coefficient based on the system of equations
Judging the risk transfer relationship by taking α -0.05, 95% confidence interval or α -0.10, 90% confidence interval through correlation test, and if the risk transfer relationship is judged to have the transfer relationship through the correlation test;
and determining a transfer path according to the transfer relationship, analyzing and calculating the risk transfer condition of the water resource, and researching the risk transfer rule.
5. A system for researching drainage basin water resource risk transfer law is characterized by comprising:
the risk source element identification unit is used for identifying risk source elements and acquiring risk source data;
the risk evaluation unit is used for establishing a risk evaluation model, dividing water resource risks and quantifying the water resource risks;
and the risk transfer analysis unit is used for establishing a risk transfer path model and identifying a risk transfer rule.
6. The system for researching watershed water resource risk transfer rules according to claim 5, wherein the risk source element identification unit comprises:
selecting a research basin, and identifying the selected basin water resource risk source elements;
and continuously monitoring, recording and counting the identified risk source element data to obtain original data.
7. The system for researching watershed water resource risk transfer rules according to claim 5, wherein the risk evaluation unit comprises:
establishing a water resource risk evaluation index system according to the identified risk source elements;
according to the obtained original data, carrying out standardization processing on each evaluation index data, eliminating the influence of dimension and magnitude, and converting into a dimensionless pure numerical value;
determining the relative importance degree of the water resource risk elements according to the risk source elements, and determining the weight;
and evaluating the water resource risk according to the risk evaluation index system.
8. The system of claim 5, wherein the risk delivery analysis unit comprises:
according to the calculation result of the risk evaluation unit, assuming that the watershed water resource risk cannot be transmitted across the watershed, then performing correlation test on the sub-watersheds, determining a water resource risk transmission path through a confidence interval of α ═ 0.05 and 95% of adjacent sub-watersheds subjected to correlation test, and establishing a water resource risk transmission model;
establishing a system of equations for the single correlation coefficients between the variables based on the decomposition of the single correlation coefficients
Obtaining the transfer coefficient among all the relevant variables;
and analyzing and calculating the risk transfer condition of the water resource according to the transfer coefficient, and researching the risk transfer rule.
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